Posts with the tag polls

BULLETS SENT TO THE PRESIDENT via WHITE HOUSE WEB SITE (14Nov2009)

Toasty in Tennessee — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:24:25 EST

Get out of Afghanistan, pass meaningful healthcare and if it fails, move on.

Regulate financial industries. Jobs, Jobs, and Jobs.

Stop building unwanted bridges and schools in Afghanistan. We need them at home.

The terrorist are not warriors. They have no army to blow up. We give them creditability calling their gang an army.

The FBI and CIA can chase them. Use the law to prosecute them, jails to hold them and the electric chair to kill them.

Stop spending our precious resources outside of the country and spend it at home.

Don't become "Bushed!"

Stand by the progressives, discipline the blue dogs and bring bills to the floor. If they don't pass it is OUR job (not yours alone) to fix it.

Oh, most important to you. You're not only slipping in the polls, you are losing your base. I love ya, but sometimes action is better than wimpy results!!

Stop enjoying yourself soo.... much. We are living hard lives and are trying to get through tough times.

Where is the "OLD" Barack? Bring him back and if bills go up or down, we will at least have a great time trying.

Good Luck, I am still in your camp for now. I don't think I can afford to give any more money. At least not until things change.

Why have Obama's approval numbers dropped?

Richard in Toronto - Still American After All These Years — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 12:32:41 EDT

President Obama can expect an instant surge in poll numbers if and when he gets back on board with the majority of Americans who don't give two figs what Snowe and the Party of No think...

To me the only mystery is why some seem to think there's any mystery. It's not like Republicans, with whom a mere 20% of Americans identify and only 36% still think have a clue about what to do are picking up the numbers.

I can only speak for my own disappointment in this once inspirational president who used to fill us all with so much hope, but I fully expect there are others who feel as I do. The President's approval numbers are inversely proportionate to his tacit approval for the antics of disingeuous Republicans such as Olympia Snowe and Chuck Grassley, support for spineless compromises such as Max Baucus's self-serving gift to the industry who supported and supports his re-election, his willingness to place the groups who elected him on hold, as he's done with the gay community, or to call us"opinionated," as he did when he recently described me and my fellow progressives that way. "Principled," Mr. Obama, and "resolute" are two of the adjectives I'd have chosen.

I don't need a public option, I live in Canada where they've understood for decades that single-payer provides the widest high quality coverage at the lowest cost to tax payers. Like over 80% of Canadians I'm very happy with the way it works, and I know it doesn't shut out private companies that enhance my coverage. I'm worried about my nephew and niece, who live in the States and have no health care. I'm worried about families who are plummeted into bankruptcy and still have to bury their 4-year-old child who dies of cystic-fibrosis, a disease that also claimed my first wife -- at the age of 40. She was Canadian. She was covered. "Life liberty and the pursuit of happiness" are more than words in Canada.

The so-called "public option" is the compromise. It has the potential of proving to Americans that the health insurance industry will either adapt and put up, as it has all over the globe, or shut up. Without a robust public option health care reform is a sham.

How They Stack The Polls

Dave R — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 22:35:27 EDT

Sometime last year I recall my ultra republican boss said something strange and out of character about Barack Obama. He said when any poll is taken or questions asked about Obama I will have nothing but praise. This was true for others who were ultra republicans in my office. Why would they do something so out of character? They wanted to stack the deck by building up the favorable numbers last year and slam him later in the year if he won. If you take this kind of thing nation wide it just might explain some of the bogus decline in President Obama's numbers. The Presidents numbers are still great even with this theory. I believe we need support for the President more than ever and his policies. Don't let the party of "No Ideas" take root.

PRESIDENT OBAMA 'S POLL RATINGS

Dimples02 — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:50:00 EDT

CLICK ON /SAVE IN FAVS - KEEP TRACK OF POLLS.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/polls/obama.html

A Poll: Use your simple common sense

Unknown user — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 10:30:02 EST

Imagine the following situation:

A neighbour in your district whenever you walk in the street he hurls stones on you, sometime tosses stones on your house and breaks your window.

Once upon a day you decided to get rid of this mischievous neighbour once and for all.

You took your gun and went out to the street where the neighbour was standing steady to toss stones on you. Once he sees your gun he runs and hides behind a couple of babies and a woman.

What would you do?

Conditions:

1- free your mind and use imagination and contemplation

2- try to be as honest as you can

3- feel the situation vividly

4- Don’t overload the situation with your political derivations… try to be simple and human.

This poll is opened for 3 days. During these days I will not comment or interfere.

Poll: Americans admire Obama most

Jonathan Ossoff — Fri, 26 Dec 2008 20:17:09 EST

Latest Gallup: 32% of Americans say President-elect Obama is the man they admire most in the world. President Bush wilts in second place with an anemic 5%.

Obama's immense and growing popularity will be a tremendous asset as he joins the political battles to define the next four and eight years. Via his web-based political organization, the President-elect will be able to leverage public support for his proposals more directly and rapidly than any president in history.

These extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. We are lucky to follow an extraordinary leader.

GOTV activities

debbier — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:44:34 EST

Hi, y'all. It has been a while since I posted but I am totally excited about our President and Vice-President Elects Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Had to go through campaign withdrawal syndrome. First, our local group, Barack Team Bessemer registered 2750 new voters in Bessemer, AL. This increased our city's percentage of registered voters by 18%. Our county, Jefferson County, had a clean sweep on November 4. For the first time in history, all Democrats won the seats they sought, including the African Americans.

We, in Alabama, picked up one additional House seat. Bobby Bright, of Montgomery, AL is our newly elected US House Representative. State totals are 4 Republicans and 3 Democrats. For years we only had 2 democrats in the House.

After our voter registration deadline ended on October 24, my sister and I, Angela, traveled to St. Petersburg, FL to knock on doors and encourage early voting. We stayed there a week and had a very exhilirating experience. Chris Haas (or CJ as he was called) had one of the most organized campaigns that I have ever witnessed. Our hosts, Millie and Bob, were very gracious and fired up. ON Halloween night, Millie had to attend a Halloween Party, and Bob asked me to hand out the treats.

My sister and I are lower middle-class African Americans. Bob and Millie are upper income Caucasians. We live in one of the poorest cities in Alabama. They lived on the coast of the Gulf or Mexico in a diverse and upscale community in St. Petersburg. Imagine the looks on the trick or treaters face when I opened the door. I told Bob, "Look, you need to show your face so no one thinks we hijacked your home". We had a ball.

My sister and I sneaked out on Wednesday to see and hear Obama speak in Sarasota, FL. I didn't see many African Americans at the rally or in the city, but everyone there welcomed us. Was told later that this was the hometown of Katherine Harris, former Secretary of State and one of the wealthiest cities in Florida.

We left on Saturday, after receiving word that Birmingham was sending several volunteers for Saturday until the day after the election. I know that we made a difference in St Petersburg. I was thrilled to finally see the election results from Pinellas County.

On election day, another sister, San, along with her husband, Mitch, and daughter, Devin, had the unique experience of taking a 92 year old couple to the polls to vote. A little background: Before Angela and I left for Florida, I registered Mr. Pitts to vote for the first time in his life. He was 92 years old. I submitted an Absentee ballot application for him and his wife (she was already registered). On Saturday, November 1, he received his voter registration card in the mail. They also received a letter from the Absentee Ballot Election Manager stating that because I submitted their applications in the same envelope, they were not eligible to vote by absentee ballot. Mrs. P was wheel chair bound. Mr. P had a pace maker and was also on an oxygen tank. I felt extremely low because I thought there was no way they could make it to the polls. The couple's son was totally disgusted with us. After talking to the couple, we convinced them to go to the polls. Mr. P went to his doctor on Monday and received additional medication to enable him to wait in long lines if needed.

My sister said they were dressed in their Sunday go to meeting clothes and were thoroughly excited to go to the polls on this historic occasion. Mrs. P's name was on the rolls but originally they could not locate Mr. P's name. Finally, a clerk looked in the supplemental rolls and found his name. Mrs. P told my sister to go over than and help him because he had never voted before in his life. She said, "go help him fill that form out for that boy!" I believe this was one of the most rewarding experiences of our lives.

We spent the rest of the day going to Public Housing complexes in Bessemer providing rides to local residents to the polls. There was an elderly woman who had gone to the polls earlier and was told that she had to go to Birmingham to vote even though she has voted at this box for several years. Her son and daughter did not know where the new place was and she had reconciled herself to not voting. Two of our volunteers, natives of Nigeria and the country of India, using their GPS took her to the polls. She was very grateful and excited to be chauffered by these international volunteers.

Grassroots campaigning does work and is totally rewarding.

Election night...

Marcia--One who believes in Dreams! — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 08:53:23 EST

November 4, 2008, I was exhausted but too excited to sleep! I had worked the polls, up at 3am to be there at 4:45 to set up for the doors to open at 6. We were very busy in the morning, the line wrapped around the church with early voters (they were all ready lining up when I arrived)! It was a steady stream of voters all day after the morning rush and then we prepared for the evening rush. In the precinct I worked over 80% of the voters had all ready cast their ballots, so we didn't have an evening rush. We actually closed on time! My husband went to the hospitals for those to vote who had been emergently hospitalized and hadn't had the opportunity to absentee vote. I was amazed at the organization here in St. Charles County. This was another 1st for me, not only have I not ever been so involved with a campaign before, but I definitely had never worked the polls. It was exhilirating and I'm sure I'll do it again (but I hope the next time I won't be working with a herniated disc!). We grabbed a little something to eat on the way back home and settled in to wait for the results, expecting a long night...WOW, were we elated when the results came in so early and we're still walking in the clouds. To live to see this moment in history and to have been a part of it. To have been blessed to have shaken his hand during the Gateway Arch Rally. I will never forget the months, the years, that brought us to this place in time. My husband heard someone say: "Rosa Parks sat so Martin Luther King, Jr. could march for Barack Obama to run and our children would fly!" Now, the real work begins...are you ready?

Finally PEACE.

Mona Ali — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 04:09:42 EST

I am so glad I am alive to see this day.

I have traveled around the world.

I have visited and lived in other countries.

I had the Opportunity to meet many different People in other Countries.

I am Grateful to have experienced the Past Opportunities in LIFE.

It made me who I am today. Pragmatic.

We needed this Election more than some people know.

I see PEACE in the Future.

We are going in the right direction.

*One Snow Flake is weak.

**Thousands of Snow Flakes are strong.

(I'm thinking about all those HARD Snowballs Iv'e been HIT with...OUCH!)

An Avalanche is Powerful.

The USA has the Strength of a Blizzard;

...and the Passion as a Blanket of Snow. (Just Beautiful. Protects Plants, too!)

Today I am glad Barack Obama is OUR PRESIDENT-Elect.

"CONGRATULATIONS Barack Obama!"

The World will be a Better Place to live in.

The United States of America will certainly be a better place to VISIT.

PEACE to All,

Finally

Goodnight My Friends,

Mona Ali

ID Rules For First Time Voters in Every State

RK — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 09:01:31 EST

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/4/74212/4017/796/652136

Grand Parents are Special

Omitunde — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 19:38:05 EST

I have not been blogging very much on this particular blog because I have been blogging all over the internet.

We are on the eve of electing our new President Barack Obama. We know he can win because we can feel it in our hearts and minds and we know he can get the job done.

Never before has history been made in this way. Many of us grandparents have dreamt of the possibility of a president being a Black man but did know that we would see it happen in our lifetime.

Thanks to everyone that campaigned and did whatever they could to see this through. For the first time in history the country has come together for a common cause.

We have alot to be proud of. Here in Maryland we do not have early voting so we will be supporting each other tomorrow by passing out water and holding a space in line for each other for bathroom breaks.

God Bless and see you at the polls!

If You Haven't Yet, Do Something on Election Day!

David — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:20:24 EST

David is volunteering to take elderly and disabled neighbors to the polls on Tues Nov 4. Besides voting yourself, check with your family, friends and neighbors in the community to see if anyone needs assistance to vote. There may be someone who could use help getting to and from the polls or, if the lines are long, just simply standing on line on Election Day. It might just be to get water or an umbrella for them. You never know. Help somebody...

Well. I've jumped in and did It.

Mackey — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 22:34:11 EST

My spiffy t-shirt is on it's way!

I hope that I will win the ticket to the Grant Park-a-palooza / Obamacon. But then my awesome friend who I promised I would go with would feel very unhappy... I dunno. I think it would rock. Front row seats!!!

Anyway, I can't wait for my t-shirt. I hope the size S wasn't an adult Small, but we'll see. Maybe I can make it shrink a lot...

Also, fivethirtyeight.com says that Obama has a 93.7% chance of winning. I guess there is a 93.7% chance I will go to school on Wednesday and not wear black.

Dear God, I hope there isn't a crazy voting scandal like the last two elections.

I watched a great video featured on boingboing.net about how if one controls who votes, then one controls who wins an election. So true. I think it was for videothevote.com? I dunno. But I do know that I am going to skip out on orchestra practice on Tuesday so I can plunk down and watch CNN for 7 hours straight. =D

Signing off, Ms. A

T-Shirts and Polls

Bibliophanatique — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 15:01:15 EST

Okay, I live in a decidedly "Blue" state ... not just leaning Blue, but a full-fledged, bright, technicolor solid Blue. So it should not have come as a surprise that when I went shopping for an Obama t-shirt to wear to a recent event (an online order would've taken too long) - I couldn't find ANY! There were plenty of McCain/Palin shirts - but no Obama.

I asked the store clerks (and I went to half a dozen stores!) and was informed that they had sold out of them WEEKs ago! I guess, on the one hand, that's good, but it didn't serve my purpose at all since I needed one fairly soon! The various Democratic field offices (there are three in my county) had run out even weeks before that.

Then I got to thinking: are t-shirts a viable representation of a dem- or GOP- leaning community? It would certainly eliminate the "Bradley Effect" where verbal affirmation for a person-of-color is favored over a white candidate, only to vote for the white candidate at the last second after all. In purchasing a t-shirt a person is, as the saying goes, "puting their money where their mouth is" and making a definite statement who it is they are supporting. If my ascertion is true, then retail sales in my community absolutely favor Senator Obama for President!

What did I do for a t-shirt to wear to my event? I plastered a bumper sticker to a bright blue t-shirt instead. It worked.

Just A Minute Of Your Time

Terry From Rome, NY... A Team Member Welcoming Rivals For The Betterment of All. — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 11:54:07 EST

I wrote the following for you my fellow citizens who are attending college, and are supporters of Senator Barack Obama. I want to you to think about it while you are waking up on Election Day and while you are standing in line to vote.

A Minute Of Your Time

By Terry Cardwell

On November 4th., 2008, Cpl. Leroy C. Howe is asking you for a minute of your time.

I first became aware of him as a 13 year old girl, the day my mother took me to visit his mother. When we walked in to the house, her sobbing was the first thing I heard, it still echoes in my soul. She was sitting at a table with a picture of her youngest son, propped in front of her. Leroy was such a handsome figure in his military uniform, his face is forever seared on my heart. She was blaming herself for signing the papers that let him join the service. He was only 17 when he begged her to let him go to fight for freedom, in a place called Vietnam, there was no stopping him. Reluctantly she let him go.

She was now facing the nightmare she had feared that day she had signed the permission slip, she was going to have to bury her baby. He had been killed while trying to save the life of a fellow soldier. His heroic action had earned him the Silver Star. And there was a write up in the local paper, in which the headline on the front page screamed, the total number of soldiers killed to that date was 10,000. Their names are etched on a black stone wall.

Leroy instilled in me something I have carried with me through the rest of my life. He had the courage to fight for us all, so we wouldn’t have to use a gun to change things. It was so ironic that he died before he could even vote at the age of 21. Therefore, when the 18 year olds won the right to vote, I honored his sacrifice by exercising it.

Over the course of my life, the amount of time I have spent voting will never add up to the loss of his. He should have turned 60 this year. This year the Leroys of all of our generations are asking you for a minute of your time. Please vote.

Now please take a second to pass this on to every college student you know.

"Pole" for Obama to Get Voters to Polls

Delores Chamblin — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 23:42:43 EDT

"Pole" for Obama to Get Voters to Polls

On Saturday November 1, for a final push to get out the vote I decided to use an empty flag pole at Lakeland Farmer's and Flea Market in Lakeland Florida to encourage shoppers to vote early.

Some of the photos in the links below demontstrate how I temporarily transformed the empty pole in a high visibility location at the market to an early vote pole - to remind folks to vote after they left the market.

Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/africreations/2994175232

SlideShow: http://www.flickr.com/photos/africreations/show

The election is only a few days away! Please do whatever you can to get out the vote and/or make a donation to help raise funds for Obama for America.

Delores

http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/Afri

http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/BlackDesignersCraftersandArtistsforObama

Fun not Frustration at the Polls

Dena "Robin" — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 12:39:41 EDT

Family there are 3 more days to go before change comes! My prayer... 1. Be PATIENT at the polls (7 am to 7 pm in Huntsville)
2. Set up like a Tailgate Party in case the lines are long you can eat and socialize while you wait 3. Take folding chairs with you and if you have extra allow an elder to use it even though they are getting in ahead of everyone else. 4. Meet your neighbors in line with you 5. PLEASE BE PATIENT 6. If you do not know what to do at the polls (how to work the machine) ask one of the poll workers, not your family or friends, to help you. 7. DO NOT WEAR ANY POLITICAL PARAPHERNALIA INSIDE THE POLLING AREA, e.g., buttons, hats, shirts, etc. 8. CAR POOL...take your neighbors and the young-heads with you; besides, you can have a lot more food in line. 9. Fast and pray from 12 pm to 1 pm (not long but you can be strong!) 10. SMILE ALL DAY AND PRAISE GOD FOR SUCH A TIME AS THIS! I don't know about ya'll, but I'm ready to vote! Peace,Dena Robin

One Reason, Or The Other

Del "Abe" Jones — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 08:34:27 EDT

One Reason, Or The Other

They don’t care about Women’s Rights
Or even, a Woman’s, “health”
Seems all they want to talk about
Is, “Obama wants to spread the wealth!”

All honor has been displaced
By the fear, that they might lose
Cheap shots, lies, and innuendo
To try to sway, the way, we choose.

It’s been the same old rhetoric
Repeated, time and time again
The same stories and the “Mavericks”
And, “Joe, the plumber”, wearing thin!

Not the same as George Bush?
Well, maybe that could be true
But, there is the real potential
For it to be worse, with those two!

Palin is just an embarrassment
What was he thinking about?
To think she could be President
Places his judgement, in doubt.

And where are his health records?
Don’t we have the right to know?
If there is nothing to hide from us
Let us see what those records show.

There’s no doubt he means well
And, maybe, thinks he is the best
But, I’m afraid he’s gone off course
With the old, “Straight Talk Express”.

I know some folks won’t vote Barack
For one reason or for the other
And sadly, too many won’t admit
It’s just because, of his color.

Well, I’ve already voted early
And I’ll just let you take a guess
As to who I think, will bring change
And straighten our Country’s mess.

Del “Abe” Jones
11.01.2008

Chance for Change - October 31 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 21:14:40 EDT

Update for October 31, 4 days to Election Day.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN! WHAT SCARES YOU THE MOST?

This was Obama's best week yet in the Chance for Change model, with Barack winning all 10,000 simulated elections with an expected vote total of 366, the highest ever. The fewest votes Barack received in any election was 294, 24 more than the 270 needed to win. The most was 431. But we're not ready to relax yet.

We entered poll results from 45 states this week, of which ten materially affected the outcome. Of these, six were favorable to Obama.

In one of the biggest surprises this week, polls show the race becoming competitive in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain had a 21 point lead last week, but only a single point lead this week. It does not look like an outlier. This red, red state is now a battleground. Obama is campaigning there, and the Republicans are running robocalls. Imagine that. We think Arizona will likely go for its favorite son, but wouldn't it be delicious?

Obama's one-point lead in Florida last week has grown to four points this week. This crucial state has volleyed back and forth all season but Obama seems to have built a durable lead, either tied or ahead in all of the last twelve polls, leading by as much as seven. Remember, if McCain loses Florida or Ohio, there is almost no possible path to 270 votes.

Obama led by a single point last week in Georgia but trails by three this week. Georgia has had record turnout in the early vote, with more than 1.5 million Georgians casting their ballots as of this week. By most accounts, Democrats have dominated the early voters. If Georgia falls to Obama, it could turn out to be a very long night for the McCain camp.

Indiana remains a squeaker. Obama's four point lead last week evaporated; now the Hoosier state is dead even at 47 all.

Obama had a four point lead in Montana last week but trails by three this week. It's only three votes, but could be highly symbolic. Not as delicious as Arizona, but still sweet.

McCain has hopes for New Hampshire, the state that revived his comatose primary campaign. McCain trailed by one point last week, but trails by eleven in this week's poll. This one is diverging and looks pretty solid for Obama.

New Mexico was tied last week, but Obama has opened up a 17 point lead. This is probably bigger than the actual lead, but it's not out of the question. Another poll this week has him up by ten.

North Carolina will be another state to watch early on election night. Obama trailed by two in last week's poll, but is up by two this week. They've been polling the heck out of the Tarheel state this week, but most of the polls have Obama in the lead.

Obama is hanging onto the lead in our home state of Ohio, up by four this week, down from a twelve point lead last week. It's still close in Ohio, but Obama leads by three to nine points in every poll taken since October 23. That's ten straight polls.

Finally, the surprise development of the election, the movement of the Commonwealth of Virginia from a reliable Republican stronghold to blue-state status appears to be complete. McCain was down by two last week but trails by nine in this week's poll. In what is becoming a familiar pattern, Obama has led in every poll since October 2 - that's 24 straight polls.

We also entered results from 28 senate races this week, of which five showed significant movement. The race in Georgia has opened up a bit, with incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss improving his lead over challenger Jim Martin from two points to five. A recent poll in Louisiana shows incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu's lead over John Kennedy shrinking from ten points last week to a single point this week. It's highly doubtful that the race is actually this close, since other recent polls show Landrieu up ten to twenty points - and the poll showing her up by one was conducted on behalf of the Kennedy campaign. Minnesota continues to entertain, with Al Franken opening up a five point lead over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. The race in Mississippi between Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove has taken a turn in Wicker's direction. Wicker's one point lead last week has swollen to eleven. In what is becoming one of the ugliest senate campaigns in the country, North Carolina Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole has fallen behind her Democratic challenger Kay Hagan by six points, after trailing last week by one. Dole ran an ad this week that implied that Kay Hagan, a former Sunday school teacher and Presbyterian church elder, is in fact an atheist. Hagan responded by accusing Dole of "bearing false witness against a fellow Christian." While we've been keeping our eye on the main event, we've forgotten all the entertaining sideshows going on in the senate races. It's a nice break.

The upshot is, there's a much better chance that the Democrats will achieve a 57 seat majority, but less of a chance that they'll get 60 seats.

Reading Material for Obama Strategists....

Alan Falk — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 17:19:04 EDT

try the washington post's polls page and some of the conclusions they draw at

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/

some of the conclusions might be very enlightening...

but nobody reads my posts, right?

plusaf in raleigh, nc. www.plusaf.com

FYI - Rides to the Polls

Jametta Lilly — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:42:18 EDT

Another resource with thanks to UWay and Michigan's Children

Get a Ride to the Polls

Michigan 2-1-1 has partnered with the Michigan Participation Project to provide information about free and low-cost rides to voting sites. MPP surveyed transportation authorities and nonprofits throughout the state to identify free rides for voters. They are available in some areas, but not all. In areas where free rides aren't offered, the 2-1-1 operators can direct folks to other low-cost transportation through their normal protocol.

It's easy. If you are serviced by a regional 2-1-1 call center, that's all folks need to dial. If you don't have local 2-1-1 service you can call the statewide toll-free number for assistance: 1-800-552-1183.

To see if you are serviced by a 2-1-1 call center, click here.

Click link below for more info. on this and children's issues for the election

http://www.michiganschildren.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=137&Itemid=156

CNN Poll of Polls : McCain behind in every Battleground State

RK — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 10:36:49 EDT

The "McSame as Bush Campaign" continues to trash talk instead of addressing middle class issues, because they have nothing to offer the American people. Fear, hate, exclusion, racism are not themes that are resonating with the American public, nor are they the morality or values the American people expect from a Presidential candidate. McCain looks like an angry old man on the verge of throwing a temper tantrum at each of his rallies. I think he is pissed off that he can't dig his way out of his position with his silver spoon.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/30/mccain-trails-in-key-battleground-states/?eref=politicalflipper

Yikes! McCain is Closing the Gap!

Adam J. Bezark — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 14:44:31 EDT

Today's rassmussen.com survey (they're the most accurate polls in my opinion) shows a sudden narrowing of Obama's lead. From 7% over the weekend, to 6% yesterday... and today it's 3%.

THREE percent.

That's nothing, kids. NOTHING. Three percent is within the margin of polling error. It's within the Bradley Effect margin. It's within voter-suppression range, or Diebold-tampering range.

For the last month, Obama has been ahead by at least four percent, usually five to seven. Now all of a sudden it's three? What's going on?

And the news is likely to get worse. Rasmussen publishes their stats based on a moving three-day average. So if the gap was 6% yesterday and 3% today, that means last night's individual survey may have showed McCain tied, or even AHEAD of Obama. We won't know until tomorrow's polls come out... with only five days left to go.

What could be causing this catastrophe?

Pennsylvania not buying what McCain is peddling

RK — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 12:26:39 EDT

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/29/45417/748/456/645349

Polling

Jeanne — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 10:58:51 EDT

So much to blog about and so little time to do it!!!!

My morning opinion is this..... I don't believe a single poll because NO ONE is willing to make the obvious statement... The Black vote is HUGE! As Barack and Joe claim the same 2000 & 2004 states we all get giddy BUT in Ohio, N Carolina and Florida the underestimation of Americans who never felt their vote would mean anything are out in droves. In my home state of Florida (the Tampa area), the polls are filled daily with enthusiastic minorities...women included! The actual voting process does not begin to express the democracy being displayed here; the freedom to speak our minds does. The vision of Americans, black, white, hispanic, asian, male, female, younguns and seniors is amazing. Drive through McDonalds and hear "did you vote yet?" Listen to the women chat while getting their nails done about the hope they see on the horizon with the changing of the guard.

Any pollster with a backbone should spell it out... the tsunami of 2008 will wash away the bigotry of 250 years as the American people as a people finally have a say in their future. My goosebumps are not just about Barack Obama, they're because the country I love so dearly is finally speaking with a chorus of one! Can you hear it John McCain? The sound is glorious. We are a wonderful nation!

"Obama and Noriega up by Seven Points in Harris County."

Carissa Sullivan — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 00:20:12 EDT

Ken Flippin, a texansforobama.com co-founder and statewide-director-on-a-non-rest-sabbatical was tapped months ago by the DNC/Obama efforts to help coordinate efforts in Houston, or as as we call it, the swing state of Texas.

For months, teams of dedicated folks have been wrangling America's most sprawling city into shape. One big issue has always been that, other than the Mayor, no one really runs city-wide and so cross-town strategic allegiances, heck friendships, are rare. So there are few seasoned activists to manage the GOTV efforts for a city which is larger than several states!

The demographics favor Dems, but the turnouts do not, held down in part by Republican Paul Bettencourt, the Tax-Assessor-Collector, and his imaginary voter fraud bogeymen -- even the republican atty gen couldnt substantiate his claims of any voter fraud. I think it is fair to say, his office is or should be the number one target for those interested in systemic fixes to low voter participation.

A strong Harris county turnout frightens Republicans, and they work to keep it low. Bow, imagine that office held by someone who instead worked to make it easier for qualified folks to be part of the process.

It looks like Harris might go our way his time, so peoples of Harris, my old hometown, please, take your friends, volunteer, vote early, and let's shock the nation.

Thank you, Hillary. Really.

sangerinde — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 10:40:22 EDT

I do my clearest thinking in the thick fog of my morning shower. And today, after reading the lastest poll numbers and chewing on the state of the campaign, I realized I owe Hillary a major-league thank-you.

I was an Obama girl from the first time I watched his Iowa victory speech on Youtube. And I was really, really frustrated by a lot of the attacks from Hillary's campaign, believing in the wisdom of Reagan's Eleventh Commandment, "Thou Shalt Not Speak Ill of a Fellow (Party Member)". Even worse, I thought, was her pointless and self-serving continuation of the primary battle long after her viability as a candidate was extinguished.

And yet.

Look where we are today:

Hillary's attacks flushed out Obama's closet (Ayres, Wright, etc.). Have we really heard any new attacks from the McCain campaign? Everything they raise sounds like tired old news, and has given them precious little traction.

The long, slog of a primary season required Obama to be ahead of the curve in building organizations in all 50 states. Even states which I'd never have thought he'd be competitive today. I mean, look at Indiana, North Carolina, etc...!

So even before the final result is known, I feel like saluting you, Hillary. And eating a little crow. You were a big part of making this possible. Thank you. Really.

At an empty UAW building on the east side of Indianapolis...

Adam Jay Southerland — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 22:21:56 EDT

As i try to do what i can for the campaign each day, today due to cold weather i decided to log on to my.barackobama.com and start making some calls. I had made calls from the new Warren Township Campaign Office on Washington & Mitthoeffer last week, have done the neighbor-to-neighbor knock on doors thing, and as a former phone canvasser that fought utility deregulation for Citizens Action Coalition, i think my main strength is on the phone. The cold weather helps that decision.

But after logging on to the site to get voters to call, I kept getting the message "No Voters" for the Indiana phone campaign. I called the field director that got me more closely involved in the campaign as a volunteer to see if he had any phone voter rolls i could use and he sent me to meet him at a building on the east side of Indy, just east of 30th & Arlington Ave.

As my field director mentioned when he first entered the building, he was reminded of the scene in the Lord of the Rings when they enter the great temple filled with relics from great dwarves. This hall was once a temple to the midwestern auto worker, a worker we see far less on this side of town.

The building is an old vacant United Auto Workers office and hall. I'll be meeting with many more volunteers from next weekend through election day at this location to help Barack win this election. The fact that the building is vacant and now for sale in this skeleton that is left of the real estate industry is perhaps the most poetic yet disheartening illustration of why we need CHANGE.

If anyone would like to help us on election day, or the days leading up. please email me at djadamjay@gmail.com

We need all-day volunteers for the polls primarily, but have many other ways to help. Many teenagers will be knocking on doors for us, seniors making calls, and the moms and sisters of great volunteers helping to keep all the other volunteers fed, hydrated, and motivated! You can help too! We will be coordinating lots of volunteer efforts from this and the Washington & Mitthoeffer location. Email me for more info!

Hey Idaho, Join the Northwest

Clint — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 12:11:09 EDT

Hey Idaho, why don't you join the rest of the Northwest? Both Oregon and Washington are looking for real change in Washington DC. Both states are strongly leaning toward Barack Obama as the candidate that can fix the messy situation the country is in right now. I know it's a hard choice given most of you are republican but please consider taking a step outside of the box this election.

Receipt Protection 4 Our Votes?

LA — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 11:35:30 EDT

As far as voting polls go, and the whole 'stealing the American vote' ritual. Since stealing our votes is a serious problem in this country, wouldn't it make sense 2 give out receipts? When you go 2 the polls 2 cast your vote, after you have entered all your information and voted, wouldn't it make sense 2 get back a printed receipt with all information you put in 2 the database? Think about it. With this receipt you will have the date, time, name of poll place, your name and who you voted 4. So in case your vote is stolen (or not counted), at least you have an original receipt that you can mail in as proof that you voted. But make sure you make a copy be 4 you send in the original, that way you always have documented proof should something else go down. And if you mail in your vote, you should get a receipt back also.
I'm saying....it makes sense 2 me. If the government can spend millions of dollars on voting machines, I'm sure they can make them 2 spit out paper receipts, 2 insure that the American citizens votes are protected.
What are your thoughts?www.hoodtalks.blogspot.com

Something weird about the Arizona numbers....

Larry — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 05:50:54 EDT

I was looking at the Pollster.com, DailyKos.com & 538 numbers and there are some interesting outliers in the mix. In McCains home turf when they poll with Barr and Nader in the mix, Obama gets within striking distance of 4 points. I don't know what this really means but it should be looked into.

Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama Barr Nader Undecided Other Margin Myers Res/Grove (D) 10/23-24/08 600 LV 44 40 2 3 3 - +4R Rasmussen 9/29/08 500 LV 59 38 - - 2 1 +21R ASU/Cronkite-Eight 9/25-28/08 976 RV 45 38 0 1 15 - +7R ARG 9/11-14/08 600 LV 56 39 - - 3 1 +17R ASU/Cronkite-Eight 8/14-16/08 402 RV 40 30 0 2 28 - +10R

And over at Dkos...

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent. ASU has its own survey coming Monday, and they've hinted at similar results. Makes me wish I would've polled Arizona instead of Tennessee.

So this might mean nothing OR it might mean its time to make John McCain defend his front porch! Anyone have any thoughts?

BTW - If you want to be your own Chuck Todd - Click Here

Pollster.com Polls

Eric Abrahamson — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 01:13:02 EDT

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Morning Status Update for Saturday (10/25)
Mark Blumenthal
A very busy Friday brings 21 new statewide polls and three new stand-alone national surveys in addition to the eight daily trackers. With the possible exception of the national trend, the net impact on where the race stands is virtually...Read more
The Art and Science of Choosing Likely Voters
Mark Blumenthal
Panagakis: Race a Wild Card for Pollsters
Guest Pollster
Daily Tracking Update (Friday 10/24)
Mark Blumenthal
Morning Status Update for Friday 10/24
Mark Blumenthal
Very Sleepy "Outliers"
Mark Blumenthal
Obama's Double-Digit Lead? The Cell Phone Only Difference in the National Trend Estimate
Brian Schaffner
Daily Tracking Update
Mark Blumenthal
Morning Status Update for Thursday 10/23
Mark Blumenthal
Wish My Team Were in the World Series "Outliers"
Mark Blumenthal

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Chance for Change - October 24 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 21:17:04 EDT

Update for October 24, 11 days to Election Day.

HOLDING STEADY - HOLDING MY BREATH

Our model is still predicting an Obama win. Out of 10,000 simulated elections based on the latest state-by-state polls, Obama won all 10,000. The fewest number of electoral votes he garnered was 290, with a median of 351 and a maximum of 430. A comfortable margin. So, why aren't we comfortable?

Maybe because there's so much at stake. Perhaps it's because the last two elections were so close, and yet fell short. Or maybe it's because McCain is really starting to scare us (Palin crossed that line weeks ago).

We entered new poll results from 31 states, of which ten had an impact on the election. Five moved in Obama's direction, and five moved in McCain's direction. But all states are not created equal...

Florida continues to shuttle back and forth between Obama and McCain. Our poll from last week put McCain ahead, 49% to 47%, while this week's poll has Obama up by one, 48% to 47%. That was enough to nearly double Barack's chances, from 32% to 60%.

In an interesting twist, our poll for Georgia has Obama ahead by one. McCain led by six last week. Remember that this state was once considered competitive, but then fell off the battleground list. Should we trust this result? Perhaps not. Other polls taken during the same period have McCain up by a margin ranging from two to six points. So this is probably an outlier.

The reliable Republican stronghold of Indiana is showing signs of edging back into the tossup category. Our poll this week has Obama up by four points, compared with a five-point deficit last week. There is no scenario for John McCain to win that doesn't include Florida, Ohio, and Indiana. I think we can expect to see some campaign stops for the McCain campaign in this usually reliably red state.

Obama had a wide lead last week in Missouri, made all the more believable by the huge crowds he drew in St. Louis and Kansas City. But this week it's back on the tossup list, with both candidates drawing 48% of the poll responses. This is another case of conflicting polls. Others polls from the same period have results ranging from a one-point McCain lead to a six-point Obama lead. So our man probably still holds the advantage.

Montana seems to be back in play. Our poll this week shows Obama ahead by four, up from a five-point deficit last week. In what seems to be a theme, we have conflicting results in this state too, with other polls from the same period showing McCain in the lead by four to five points.

New Hampshire is another state with some hinkiness in the numbers. We used a Zogby poll of 466 likely voters showing Obama up by one. But other polls show Obama up by four to five points. This one still looks good for Obama.

You'll see the campaigns cross paths in New Mexico. While every poll for the last six weeks has shown Obama ahead, this week we have a poll showing the race tied at 46 all. We really believe that Obama is still well ahead of McCain in New Mexico, but this poll gives McCain new hope for these five votes.

North Carolina has been crazy all season and this week continues the trend. Our poll this week has McCain up by two, the first poll in two weeks showing a clear lead for McCain.

Obama's lead in Virginia may be softening, with this week's poll showing him up by just two points. But, guess what? Other recent polls show him with a four- to ten-point lead.

All of these are of secondary importance compared with the poll in Ohio showing Obama leading, 53% to 41%. And there are other polls showing Obama up in our Buckeye state. Obama can win without Ohio, but McCain cannot. As long as Ohio is firmly in the Obama column, the election is his.

The Senate results this week are unremarkable. There's a slight shift in the race in Alaska, as Ted Stevens' corruption trial goes into its final stages. Kay Hagan still clings to a slight edge over Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina. Neither of these affect our projection.

Standing in line when the polls are closing

Ms. Mary — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 20:01:39 EDT

You have a right to still vote if you are standing in line when the poll close. Do not be turned away. It is your right to complete the election process but you must be standing in line at the time the polls close: 7:30 pm or 8:00 pm depending on your location. You can aviod this by voting early.:)

Making Sure Polls Showing Obama Will Win are Proven Correct at the Polls on Election Day

Paul Levinson — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 17:20:37 EDT

As we move into the last 10 days before the most important election of our time, it is well to bear in mind the world of difference between two processes that have the same name: polls (as in surveys about how people will be voting) and polls (the places in which people actually cast their votes.

Surveys are useful tools, and have been generally accurate over the years. But they are not infallible, indeed have been wrong a few crucial times in our history, and in plain fact elect no one. The reasons poll-surveys have been in error almost don't matter. But they range from deliberately or accidentally biased samples - the people questioned are not representative of the general population - to people just not telling the truth when asked about their voting intentions. Infamous examples of polls being wrong range from the 1936 Literary Digest poll predicting Alf Landon's victory over FDR in that election to polls for the New Hampshire Democratic primary earlier this year which showed Obama winning comfortably. Pollsters learn from their mistakes. But there is no way to learn from a mistake you do not realize you are making - until the actual vote at the polls proves your poll-survey wrong.

Just to be clear - most polls, the vast majority of them, have been correct in their prediction. But the stakes are so high in this election, that those of us who support Obama can't gamble, even with the odds so heavily in our favor, that the current polls showing Obama leading in so many states are right.

YOUNG VOTERS CRITICAL TO ELECTION VICTORY

Vickie Pynchon — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 10:10:37 EDT

SEE ARTICLE HERE

PLEASE CONTACT ME TO SIGN UP FOR 1, 2, 3 OR MORE 2-HOUR SHIFTS TO GET OUT THE VOTE IN VEGAS. NO PERSUADING INVOLVED. YOU'LL BE KNOCKING ON DOORS OF IDENTIFIED OBAMA SUPPORTERS OR HANGING DOOR KNOB TAGS ON DOORS OF OBAMA SUPPORTERS REMINDING THEM TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY!

MAKE IT HAPPEN!!

JOIN YOUR NEIGHBORS IN TRANSFORMING AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR YOUR -- THAT'S YOU TWENTY-SOMETHINGS -- FUTURE AND YOUR CHILDREN'S FUTURE AND THE FUTURE OF THEIR CHILDREN TO THE SEVENTH GENERATION!11

WE NEED YOU. WE NEED YOU. WE NEED YOU. WE NEED YOU. WE NEED YOU.

AND IF YOU ARE ONLY ABLE TO DROP FOOD AND WATER BY STAGING AREAS IN THE PRECINCTS, THAT'S GOOD TOO.

WE REGISTERED THE VOTERS. WE CONVINCED THEM OBAMA IS THE ANSWER. NOW ALL WE NEED TO DO IS GET THEM TO THE POLLS.

JOIN US JOIN US JOIN US JOIN US JOIN US JOIN US JOIN US

It's Not Over Yet. Polls Were Wrong in New Hampshire. And Dewey 'Beat' Truman.

BuzzFlash — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:03:55 EDT

A BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS
by Christine Bowman

Obama campers, don't forget "Dewey Wins!"

Most polling now shows Obama pulling ahead of McCain. But could the pollsters be showing us an instant replay of the erroneous polling they did in January for the New Hampshire primary?

Remember the primary contest early this year, where the pollsters all got it wrong? Or, maybe Hillary Clinton's tears turned the tide. Who really knows? That's my point.

Here's what Barack Obama told supporters in Virginia a few days ago:

We are 18 days away from changing this country. 18 days! But for those of you who are getting a little cocky, who support me, and start reading the polls. I just got two words for you: New Hampshire. Everybody thought we were going to win them in the Primary. We were up 10 in the polls, day before the election, and we ended up losing. We were up in Texas and Ohio in the Primary, we ended up losing. You can't pay attention to the
polls. We've got to keep making our case for change. We've got to keep fighting for every vote. We've got to keep running through the finish line. This election is too important. We can't take anything for granted. The future that you seek and I seek for our children is too important to let up now. The time for change has come. We can do this. Americans have done it before but I need you to stand up. Stand up for change! I need you to make phone calls, I need you to do a blackberry, I need you to talk to your friends and yours neighbors. And if you all work with me, and organize with me, we will not just not win Virginia, we will win this general election. And, you and I together we gonna change this country and change the world. God bless you. God bless the United States of America.

Events on the ground sometimes change results, and other times polling is just not good enough to predict an outcome.

Are the Polls Accurate? (Michael Barone, WS)

The Obama campaign organization certainly has built an impressive force of boots on the ground. Paid and volunteer Obama workers essentially have realized the "50-state strategy" championed by DNC Chair Howard Dean. They have challenged McCain throughout the country.

Now it's up to that army of supporters to deliver. If they are to succeed in these final days, they'll need both blindfolds and earplugs to block out the good news for Obama coming from pollsters.

* * *

Latest AP-GfK Roper Presidential Poll, October 16-20
[10 point Obama lead among Total Respondents; 1 point spread among Likely Voters]

A BUZZFLASH NEWS ANALYSIS

Voters Tell Their Stories in Nevada

Vickie Pynchon — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:52:22 EDT

I'm collecting people's stories from the road here in Las Vegas. Not a lot of time so will just bullet point them:

McCain poll watcher (the McCain campaign hires them; no volunteers at the polls for the GOP) mid-20's, born-again Christian after he finally warms up to me whispers, "you know I'm voting for Barack." Why? "Because my two mothers are gay."
Woman (mid-50's) leaving the polls pushing walker. Says she needs a hip replacement. Her father was a Pentacostal minister in Appalachia. She has no health insurance. Once worked for Dukakis doing make-up for him and on-screen staff. Also worked make-up and hair for country-western bands. She's a hairdresser out of work. I say "I know who you voted for" and she smiles and talks about how Obama reflects Christian values. She says, somewhat sheepishly, "I don't think I should, but I am PRAYING that Obama will become the next President." I smile and wish her well.
Woman (late 30's) when asked for date of birth by poll worker says, "old enough to know the difference between socialism and capitalism." Another Obama voter.
At close of day, 70'ish poll worker, tall, sweet white haired, eager for intelligent conversation admits that Obama "frightens" him. I say, "you don't need to be afraid; even if he were a really bad guy, there's an entire Congress and a Supreme Court to put the check on an out-of control administration." As I say this, I am thinking how frightening the entire Bush administration has been for me and how the Supreme Court AND a cowardly Congress has failed us, giving Bush too much power. But I stay silent on that issue. This man is TRULY AFRAID of Obama and has come to trust my judgment during the day. I only want to reassure him that an Obama presidency won't hurt him. He asks me to come back the next day but I am on to a new polling place.

Come on out and hear the stories of the people who will be making Obama president. Set aside the foolish partisanship and join us in getting Job One done.

North Carolina is in reach!

Daniel Baker — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:43:36 EDT

Today, for the first time, Obama has a tiny lead in the polling average in North Carolina. Early voting has been overwhelmingly for Obama. That margin will narrow to a few percentage points come Election Day. Obama's average polling lead is only 0.8 points, well within the margin of error, and McCain certainly could still stage a comeback in the state, but Obama's chances in North Carolina are better than even.

This is astonishing. North Carolinians haven't voted Democratic for president since 1976, when they sided with the Democratic governor of Georgia. In 2004, they went for Bush by double digits even though their own Senator, John Edwards, was on the ticket against him. A Democratic African-American Senator from a midwestern state carrying North Carolina would be epochal.

North Carolina is a big chunk of change, electorally speaking. With 15 votes, it's tied for 9th biggest state in the Electoral College. If Obama were to take North Carolina, he would win even if McCain's crazed assault on Pennsylvania succeeded in carrying the state for the Republicans, and even if Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Missouri all shifted back to McCain. Obama's chances have never looked so good.

Nevada Voter Protection

Vickie Pynchon — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 12:36:31 EDT

In Las Vegas doing voter protection. The polls are open for early voting and people are streaming in. The poll workers are amazing, treating every voter like a golden egg, making sure they're able to vote; resolving problems with registration by calling the registrar of voters for any problem that they cannot resolve on the ground. Makes you proud of our little "d" democracy. If you're a lawyer like me willing to devote a weekend or even just one day to voter protection, come on out.

Polls...good news, bad news...

Annette Sousley — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 21:39:35 EDT

Well, the new polls are out. The news is good, then news is bad. Barack and Joe are up according to all the polls. But as he said the other day. We can't get cocky and complacent. We still have to stay on our toes. We have to vote, we have to make sure we get others out to vote.

Here is a copy of some of the results so far:

As you can see, he is leading in some states so far but in others he is behind. So we still have to really be on our toes and get the vote out. We still have 2 weeks to go and we can't get lazy and complacent now. This is no time to let our guard down.

Joe made a wonderful speech today in CO. At the end of his speech he called for McCain to take down the negative ads and the robo calls. I wish he would, but I am afraid it won't happen. He should, if he has any honor left. Go out with dignity and honor, but I don't see that in McCain. I guess I just don't see it in him, never really did. I may be wrong, but I just don't see it in him any more.

Well, to finish up... again I have to say.... VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TWO WEEKS TO GO!

Pamela — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 20:52:22 EDT

The election can't come too soon for America...especially when I read my previous post...EEEKS...I musta been drinking the Republican Kool-Aid! Obama always said that we may disagree on a vote, but he will always consider our best interests...BRAVO, and just forget what I said long ago...LOL!

Baring some Republican/FLA shennanigans, it looks like OBAMA will be residing at the White House next year. It cannot come soon enough. The Bush/Cheney years have dealt out many a mortal blow to the American Public...no one is exempt from the effects of this administration.

So, here's to America...better late than never... finally NOT voting for the dumb and dumber duo...

SEE YOU AT THE POLLS!

pamie

My Thoughts are with the Obama Family...

Brady — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 21:41:07 EDT

My Grandmother and I were watching the news tonight when the story broke that Senator Obama's grandmother's health has taken a turn for the worse. My heart goes out to Obama tonight. As I was sitting with my grandmother and taking in this news, we both got teary eyed. We have been working together on the 85andchange.com blog, as we have worked on so many projects together, and this news hit home. My grandmother was imagining what must be going through the heart and mind of Barack's grandmother, while I was thinking of the fear and love that Barack must be feeling.

I sincerely hope that her health is strong enough to get her through the next few weeks. Win or lose, she has accompanied Barack through his amazing life, and I'm sure it will be so satisfying for her to see this journey through to election day. And I am sure it is his hope to be able to call her, or see her the moment after he is elected the next president of the United States!

On behalf of my grandmother and myself, our thoughts and prayers go out to his whole family tonight, and we pledge to do whatever we can to get her wonderful grandson elected.

If anyone cares to share a story of a bond between grandparent and grandchild, or just would like to share their hopes for Obama's grandmother - I encourage you to visit my grandmother's blog at 85andchange.com.

Barack Obama

Sarah — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:01:01 EDT

For the first time in my life I've felt truly passionate about politics. Why? Because of Barack Obama. Obama has the power to unite and connect with Americans. He makes me feel like I can change things, as if anything is in my grasp. He is the American dream. He can relate to everyone and doesn't discriminate. He isn't for democrats, he isn't for African Americans, he isn't for Christians, he isn't for the rich, he isn't for the poor, he is for America. He is for equality, the good of America. His compassion shines through every speech he makes. He isn't petty, smug, pompous, or a fraud. He is Barack Obama. He is America.

Keep up to date on the polls:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

November 4th – Push to Election Day …One Neighbor at a Time

Crystal — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 14:33:30 EDT

10.23.08 at 5:30pm Café Barack – Push to Polls on Nov. 4th
http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gprdjr

Laurel Cell Phone Call Center - John McCain’s Anger First Campaign
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/devintucker/gGgHCD
This call center made over 10,000 calls working only weekend. Bravo to Mark, Maureen, Devin, and Wendy, et al.

Neighbor to Neighbor: Reach Out and Make a Difference
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdate4/gGgbMr

'Joe the Voter' and other Joes, McCain Doesn't want you to know about.

JJ — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:29:55 EDT

Joe the Plumber? What about 'Joe the Voter'

and 9 Other Joe's McCain doesn't speak about.

Wednesday night, I prepared to watch the last debate with a plate of pericos and some cold Dos Equis, and my lovely wife Nora (whom I call Scully--I'll save that story for later).

Scully has been a devout politico's wife for about ten years, a Chicago yellow-dog democrat, her father was a democrat, her mother was a democrat and she will die a democrat. She is also the one person fond of my affinity to watch every political news show and my willingness to talk politics with anyone -- anytime. For this someday she'll be awarded a purple heart, congressional medal of honor or a tall glass of Scotch, more than likely the latter.

In her eyes, I am, when it comes to politics, all-knowing, all-seeing, and can turn tap water into a great chardonnay at fundraising receptions, however , I am NOT infallible." So every election cycle (until I report for work at the great caucus in the sky), I make sure that the most qualified candidate receives 150% of my unequivocal, loyal, articulate and vociferous support (I reserve the other 50% for possible mid-cycle corrections or retreats--JK).

CNN -- Debates a la Boxing!

So it was this week, when I sat down to watch the much ballyhooed debate-to-end-all debates on CNN, that my Mexi-Mind began to wonder. With CNN HD you get the equivalent of HBO Boxing's Comp box, for each political pundit. Red/Blue dials tracking positive and negative points --LIVE! This is great, although I'd prefer totals discussed Larry Murchant and an interview with each fighter at the end.

After a some- day-dreaming about a rendition of a Jimmy Leonard-like introduction for each debater, (in this corner wearing blue satin shorts the Master Blaster against Economic Disaster, the Senator of Suave, Democratic Presidential Candidate, Barack Obama)---my mind returned to the Dos Equis and the salsa, only to be mildly irked by the introduction of "Joe the Plumber."

Joe the Plumber joins Joe Six-pack in McCain/Palin's portrait of America.

You see folks I hate glittering generalities, specifically I hate Palin's introduction of Joe Six-pack, and Holly Hockey-mom, or whatever her attempt to classify the sum of our American cultural and social experiences into some tacky image of mediocrity, is.

For a better understanding of my views on the Republican right's incessant attempts to instill fear, loathing and bias into American politics read my book, "It Is Not OK- put an End to Mediocrity!" (Publication Date -- sometime soon after I get around to writing it.)

As McCain pronounced the moniker 'Joe the Plumber', I winced.

I pained. I pained, then I winced. (Repeat as often as he was mentioned)

So after 90 minutes of inconsequential jabber on the possible investment practices of one, Joe the Plumber (mentiroso, in this climate who's going to lend you the money?).

I began to thinking of the dozens of Joe's, McCain/Palin hope you don't meet.

Yes, like a retort to the PC v Mac commercials, I realized that Joe Six-pack and Joe the Plumber are everywhere. But not like McCain thinks. No, like GI Joe, they come with different costumes and sometimes a --kung-fu grip.

So allow me introduce you to the latest Joes:

Joe the Unemployed Machinist. After dedicating the last ten years, to his company, missing two days for the birth of his son, and patriotically supporting his country and the current President, this Joe, has lost his job at manufacturing plant, because fabrication has been outsourced to China.

Joe the Manager. After climbing the ladder at this national retailer, with aHS diploma, blood sweat and tears, he loyally invested in his company's stock options and made dedicated contributions to his 401 K. Joe the Manager, lost 30% of his retirement kitty, last week, and his hour were cut down to 36/week, because Republicans like McCain let wall street fat cats deal fast and loose with his investments.

Jo-Jo the Custodial single Mother. Jo-Jo has no healthcare and lives in a hotel with her three kids. She was diagnosed with Lupus, and once unable to maintain her work schedules, she was laid-off under her employer's neutral attendance policy. She unsuccessfully applied for unemployment, as these benefits are predicated on being an able-bodied adult, medically cleared to seek employment, she was denied. Receiving only TANF assistance, she was unable to qualify for healthcare coverage under CHIP(children's health insurance program), because Republicans like McCain did not fund CHIP in Congress, and state Republicans created barriers that impede her access to services.

Joe the Farm-worker. After legally immigrating to America, labor Joe, struggles with ostracism, racial profiling and discrimination because he belongs to a race of people currently blamed for our economic woes--he is Hispanic. He grew-up in a Migrant family and his sole job skills are dependent on obtaining a livable wage in an industry that belittles his contribution to the economy, and frequently characterizes him as an illegal, despite his US Residency. He hopes to have his children exit the migrant stream, have been dashed by the Republican led cuts to Federal funding for Migrants programs.

Zhoe the Immigrant. Zhoe lived in a war-torn European country. She read about America in magazines, books and movies. She thought America was the land of the free and home of the brave, open to all willing to risk life and limb, to get here. She was found starving in an eighteen wheeler amongst 15 other men and women, in Arizona. She is waiting deportation, because while her skills are needed, and her desire to join our country is commendable, Americans under Republican rule have come to fear foreigners and are callous to her plight.

Joe the Homeless Veteran. After loosing his arm in Desert Storm, his family in 1995, and eventually his home, Joe suffers from acute PTSD and dementia. He is missing all his teeth, sleeps in a cardboard bed, is only 42. He wears a pair of faded fatigues, remnants of his loyal service. Republicans believe a lack of self-reliance and will, keeps Joe, on the streets. Rather than admitting that their failed policies on Veteran Affairs contribute to Joe's misery, they fail to protect and care for the Men and Women, who gave their limbs and lives for freedom.

Joe the Deployed Soldier, aka GI Joe. After enlisting at age 18, due to a barrage of non-stop recruiting tactics at his high school, promises of bonuses, and post military employment, Joe was KIA in Iraq, at age 20. he is the victim of a ill-planned, ill-equipped, foreign military intervention, in a land fearful of Americans, and a war instigated by Bush, supported by McCain, that can only be ended by Obama.

Jose el Carnicero. A naturally born US Citizen. After selling you ground beef every day, for the last two years, you'd be surprised to know Butcher Joe is a first-generation Mexican-Arab-American. Mexican Father, Arabian mother. He was the first in his family to graduate from high school, and first to serve in the US armed forces. He performed with valor for three tours in Iraq. Today he suffers quietly from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and needs dialysis from a war-related injury. Joe has no VA hospital near his community and can't afford the 4 hour drive to the nearest one. Due to his appearance, Joe has been stopped by US ICE officials before boarding every flight, since ending is tour in Iraq.

Joe the Teacher. After succumbing to the effects of a flu--yes a flu, teacher Joe, lost his life because he couldn't get the medical care he needed at an ER. He had selected the basic coverage because his wages were so low he needed every cent of his payroll to make ends meet for his family. Since, his coverage did not include ER visits for flu like issues, Joe was told he would incur a $750 bill for his ER visit. Jo refused medical attention, to avoid debt. No one realized it was advanced pneumonia and he died overnight.

Joe the Voter. After 8 years of failed public policies, the worst economic crisis in American history, seeing neighbors, friends and family sacrifice their sons and daughters in Iraq, sacrificing the amount of food, healthcare and education they and their children can buy, after seeing their civil liberties eroded, and the international image of America tarnished, Joe the Voter is you. He is your friend, family and neighbor. Folks, Joe the Voter is desperate for leadership and change.

Joe the Voter, also known as Knock-out Joe, is heading to the polls with a powerful jab, and a tremendous left-hook, and a furious right-cross. Joe heralds from Anywhere, USA, he weighs in on every important issue and is the current world heavy weight champion of the 'Liberty and Justice for All' belt, and the 'I Want my Country Back' Belt.

and John---he wants change, and he wants it now.

JJ Martinez

Chance for Change - October 17 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 13:47:43 EDT

Update for October 17, 18 days to Election Day.

STILL ON TOP...BUT MY FINGERNAILS ARE BITTEN TO THE QUICK

We entered new poll results from 38 states, only four of which had an impact on the race. Of these, one was favorable for Obama and three for McCain. Bottom line: Obama still wins 99.99% of all our simulated elections, with an average of 332 electoral votes.

Obama gave up a three point lead in Florida to trail McCain by two, 47% to 49%, in the latest poll. We gave Obama a 79% chance of winning Florida last week; this week it's down to 32%. The Obama ground game is formidable in Florida, and the air war is raging to capture the 27 electoral votes at stake.

Obama's lead in Missouri, where he was up by a single point last week, has grown to six points. These are eleven votes once thought to be comfortably in the McCain tally. We're sure that the McCain staffers are looking at the poll numbers and watching the throng of 100,000 cheering for Obama in St. Louis and wondering from where they'll pull resources to fortify the Show-Me state.

Ohio is one of the few states that is still dead even for all practical purposes. Obama led by two last week, but this week's poll is tied at 49% each. That's just two percent undecided or voting for third parties. We're watching the ad campaigns here in the Buckeye state and we can tell you neither campaign will concede these twenty votes without exhausting their last campaign dollar. But it's quite clear that McCain is not fixed for a war of attrition (more on this below the fold). Persuasion is not what will carry this state - it'll go to whoever gets out the vote.

There was some excitement last week with at least one poll showing Obama with an eight point lead in West Virginia, but the latest poll shows McCain up by two. It's only five votes, but taking West Virginia would definitely send a message.

We had twelve new poll results in the senate races. Four showed significant movement. Democrat Mark Udall has lengthened his lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado, from two points to eleven points. Al Franken, the Democratic candidate in Minnesota continues to lead incumbent Norm Coleman by two, down from six last week. Democrat Kay Hagen's lead over Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina fell from five points to two points. Finally, Jeff Merkley, the Democratic challenger in Oregon is tied with incumbent Gordon Smith, having led in last week's poll by five. The upshot is, the expected number of senators in the Democratic caucus has dropped from 59 to 58, but there is still a 10% chance that the Democrats will pick up a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats, and a 90% chance that they'll capture at least 57 seats.

Does the "Joe the Plumber" story make your furious? Then do something about it.

Steve Sulkin — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 11:10:19 EDT

Does the "Joe the Plumber" story make your furious?

It should, it's fabricated, Joe is not a plumber, is not buying a business, if he did it would be a business small enough to have it's taxes decreased by Obama's tax plan, and Joe was a plant, orchestrated by the RNC.

This is a game and we should be alarmed that such games happen and even more alarmed that it becomes the center piece of a presidential candidate.

McCain should be ashamed of himself and he is not. The ends justifying the means is his battle cry, a dangerous situation. Don't think we will win this election easily. It will be tough and I believe the polls are wrong, it feels wrong, something is up and I don't know what it is, but we need to make sure that we don't get another election stolen from us. We, in America should not be afraid of stolen elections, but we are afraid and for good reason.

So if this all makes your furious, do something about it and keep pushing to make President Barack Obama a reality.

Polls Have Tightened

Steve — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 11:39:19 EDT

Just as I predicted Wednesday, the polls have moved two points closer. I thought Barack's answer to Joe the Plumber was weak. Worse, it is being exploited by McCain.

If you were falling asleep at the wheel, wake up! Time to double your efforts if you want to win this election for us and for Barack.

Barak Obama Wins U.S. Election

memanni — Wed, 15 Oct 2008 11:59:00 EDT

Barack Obama Wins

http://www.jcer.info/

http://www.jcer.info/candidates

http://www.jcer.info/about_us

http://www.jcer.info/media_center

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1015396.html

The President's Race

Joe Z — Tue, 14 Oct 2008 21:21:59 EDT

In less than a month our presidential election ritual will be over. While each election generates its unique moment or moments, this election has certainly generated more unique moments than most. As well, this election has occurred within the nation’s worst developing economic crisis. For some of us the election is over; we have made our choice and cast our ballot. Absentee voters and early voters in some states have already signed their absentee applications, filled out their ballots, and sealed them in envelopes which will be counted with regular election day voters. Around the country, initiative petition questions are to be decided, non-binding questions considered, and there were many local, state, and national offices to be filled.

I was again impressed that presidential candidates from “smaller” parties have virtually disappeared from national attention. The two candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties have raised and spent hundreds of millions of dollars for their campaigns. Those amounts have become the “cost of doing business.” If candidates and parties cannot raise those huge sums of money, then they virtually disappear from the public mind and contention. Many candidates enter the race, but if they are unable to raise large sums of money early in their campaigns, they are a giant-step closer to becoming an “also-ran.” My early favorite candidate became one of those also-rans.

Election day should be a half-day holiday. Right?

Isabella from Richmond, VA — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 16:54:58 EDT

With record numbers of people registered to vote for both parties, I think that election day should be a full-day or half-day holiday. The primary turn out earlier this year should be a good indication that turn out for the election will be high. With many people frustrated with the way the economy is, many will turn out to voice their wish for leadership. The past two election has been filled with problems. With a record turn out, it will compound the situation. I think there should be an emergency petition and bill pass for an election holiday.If a holiday (full day or half day) is not set, there will be many court request for extensions for the hours places have to close. There will be plenty of stress for those who will be working with long lines late in the night. Many should ask their state representative to put in this request in play.This is not to force people to vote, but an opportunity for those who want to vote to not have the opportunity, because of long lines (if they have children to take care of, work two job, go to school and work, disable or many other issues) or areas closing before everyone has the chance to vote. If the holiday is just a half day, small businesses will still good amount of work done for that day. Lets make a difference and sick for at least a half-day holiday to exercise our rights.

The Bradley Effect and Obama

Bev Haut — Sat, 11 Oct 2008 16:52:39 EDT

A friend of mine wrote to me the other day with her concerns that the "Bradley effect" might well be a factor in the upcoming presidential election.

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the Bradley effect, here's a brief summary from what my friend located on the web:

"The term Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other. Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

"One theory for the Bradley effect is that some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. This effect is similar to people refusing to discuss voting choice at all. If you state you are undecided, you can avoid being forced into a political discussion with someone highly partisan. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may be a factor into voters' answers."

The Bradley Effect was largely unheard of at the time, primarily because there were precious few African-Americans holding such an office, and it was most definitely a factor in Tom Bradley's defeat in '82. But that was 26 years ago.

Think of that ... 26 years ago, 1982. I wasn't living in SoCal then, but I remember it well (yes, they do get the news back in Georgia, although events over the past 10 years or so -- and as recently as yesterday -- have made me ashamed of my home state). In the past 26 years, we've seen immense progress towards improved race relations -- not enough progress, obviously, but racism and bigotry are not as rampant as they were in '82.

Of course the Republicans are going to do everything they can to get McCain elected, but there's a huge spotlight on political campaigns in the 21st century, thanks to the internet and a 24/7 news cycle. The public and the media are everywhere (cell phones, hidden cameras, TV, radio). It's going to be a lot more difficult to rig this election than anyone can possibly imagine.

There will always be rednecks and crackers, people who believe in their hearts that anyone who isn't just like them are less than human, don't deserve common respect, shouldn't be allowed to hold a major political office, or even vote. I know this because I am a direct descendant of two people who felt the same way. My father was the worst; I won't go into some of the nightmares he used to conjure or the hideous behavior. Just imagine the worst cracker you ever knew and square that by 100.

Fortunately for me, when I was 11, John F. Kennedy was running for office. (Some of you are too young to remember that his Catholicism was a huge factor in that election, with non-Cathols worried that JFK would somehow cohabit the White House with the Pope. Seriously.) That was my first connection with politics, and it opened my eyes.

(Disclaimer: It didn't hurt that on my 12th birthday, I received a letter from JFK, written on his Senate stationary. Dated December 3, 1960, he wrote, "Dear Miss Blackwell ... I want to thank you for the very friendly message you sent to me after my election to the presidency. I am most heartened by the many expressions of good will which I have received. I am sure that they reflect a broad unity of purpose in our nation. I hope that my record during the next four years will sustain your generous confidence. With every good wish, I am, Sincerely /John F. Kennedy/" It is my most prized possession. It is his signature; I've had it verified. It breaks my heart to read the last sentence and remember the hope, the promise, that his presidency held.)

Thus began my love affair with the Democratic Party, and politics in general. When the first black student took her seat in my 8th grade class, I was proud that Atlanta had been so progressive in matters of race, thanks mostly to Dr. King's presence, and sad that when I went to introduce myself to her, she shied away from me a bit, likely out of fear of what I might do or say. We became friends, and remained so throughout our school years. I lost touch with her many years ago, but I think of her often.

Now, I want all of you to think of everyone you know. Think of each one of them and ask yourself, "Is this person a racist? A bigot? Does this person mirror my feelings about my country and its citizens?" If the answer for any one of these people is "yes," think about how your own behavior could affect theirs. Could you have a conversation with this person without it turning into "Nazi"? A lot of 'em will blow you off, angrily; it's hard to talk about such deep-seated emotions without getting emotional, and if that's the way he/she is, so be it.

But what about this other person? Maybe he/she would actually welcome a conversation; not a yelling match, but an honest, cordial, even friendly talk? Those are the ones we must reach; those are the ones who are intellectually curious, who can observe and listen at least somewhat objectively.

Hundreds of people out there are indeed racist assholes. But thousands more are NOT racists! We now outnumber them! Names are dropping from the pathetic rolls of the Aryan Nation like gnats around Sarah Palin's mouth. The KKK is nearly dead, and I never thought I would live to see that day.

We cannot control what The Others do. We *can* control what we do when they pull out their bag of transparent tricks. Respond, in whatever forum you might find yourself, but do it without fear and without anger. You can't have a fight if one party won't fight. And that, my friends (I can't believe I just wrote that), is the best way in the world to piss of John McCain.

Wear the world like a loose jacket ~ turn to your Zen place, if necessary ~ and be like BO. Unflappable. Unshakeable. Certain. Affable. Courageous. Aware. Informed. And, more than anything, hope.

Don't let petty distractions into your life (or your mailbox). Don't concern yourself overly much about what The Others are doing and saying ~ yesterday, for the first time, John McCain finally spoke out. A woman at one of his rallies said she'd read all about Obama and flatly stated that he was an Arab. McCain, at long last, earned back about an ounce of his honor by saying to her, "No, ma'am," several times, shaking his head in disagreement. "He's a decent, family man, [a] citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues and that's what this campaign is all about." And for that, John McCain was booed.

This is the greatest and most effective grassroots campaign we have ever seen. Thousands of Democratic and Obama volunteers - people like you and me - are, for the first time in their lives, truly involved in a political campaign. The polls don't reflect Obama's real lead because they're only polling voters who were already registered, NOT the hundreds of thousands of new Democratic voters who have been registered in the past 20 months.

I beg everyone to believe in their hearts and minds, to know with certitude in this: Barack Obama will win this election by a landslide. Know this: Barack Obama will be our next President, and he will be the greatest President in the history of America. Do not doubt yourselves for one moment; we cannot afford such negative thoughts at a time when the future of our country, and the world, rests on the outcome of this election.

Without hate, without fear, walk this historic walk, these last few miles - only 25 more days! - please, walk with me, with millions of others and with Senator Barack Obama as he continues to march into only his second home, the White House.

(I apologize for the length of this post, but these are topics that raise my passion, and for some reason, even though I've been blocked for weeks and I'm sick as a Georgia Bulldog on nasty Tennessee grass (UGA!), I felt the absolute need to write this, if not for me, then for the one person out there who does read it and takes something good away from it.)

NO FEAR!!!!!!!!

I wanna be like BO!

Bev Haut
www.myspace.bellesocal
www.beverlyhaut.com

Chance for Change - October 10 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 21:02:26 EDT

Update for October 10, 25 days to Election Day.

IN THE BAG?

This is a first. In 10,000 simulated elections, Barack Obama won every single time. That's 100%. The number of electoral votes ranged from 272 to 392, with an expected total of 349. I won't belive it until Fox News calls it, but it looks pretty good for our man.

We put in new results from 19 states, of which six had a significant impact on the race. Five out of those six favored Obama.

Obama lengthened his lead in Colorado, from a single point advantage to six points, cracking the 50% barrier. There were two recent polls from Colorado, both with identical 51%-45% results, with a total sample size of nearly 1500 likely voters. That's a solid Obama lead.

Minnesota flipped from McCain (by one point) to Obama (by seven). There were four new polls since last week, all showing Obama in the lead, ranging from one to eighteen points. We feel comfortable that the poll we used was not out of line.

Missouri also flipped from McCain by two to Obama by one. McCain has led consistently, if narrowly, in this state until recently. Several other polls have Obama even with or ahead of McCain.

Every one of four new polls in Virginia has Obama in the lead, by as little as one point and by as much as twelve points. We used a poll of 917 likely voters showing Obama in the lead, 51% to 43%. I would never have predicted it, but Virginia looks very Obama-friendly just 3-1/2 weeks before the election.

In the biggest surprise, and probably the reason for the 100% result this week, is a recent poll from West Virginia showing Obama leading 51% to 42%! This is an exact reversal from last week's poll, and takes five votes out of McCain's tally and puts them reliably in Obama's. It's the first poll I've seen from West Virginia with Obama in the lead, and it could be an outlier, but who knows? This could be a surprise on election night as well. We do know that if they call the Virginias for Obmama early on election night that McCain had better unfold the concession speech.

We entered four new results from senate races, only two of which impacted the overall results. Ted Stevens, indicted senator from Alaska, has taken back the lead from challenger Mark Begich by a single point. We're speculating that the Good People of the North recognize the inevitable outcome of the presidential race, and are planning to cast a vote for Stevens just to prove a point, although what point that might be, we can't say.

In an interesting development in Minnesota, Al Franken has taken the lead over Norm Coleman, benefitting from a strong showing by independent Dean Barkley, who is drawing 17% of the responses. The state that elected Jesse Ventura might just elect Al Franken to the senate.

The bottom line is, The Democrats now have a ten percent chance of achieving a filibuster-proof sixty seat majority, providing independent senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut continue to caucus with the Democrats. But I hear Joe's leading a pretty lonely life these days.

The Genius of it All!

Yinka from Kirkland, WA — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 13:03:58 EDT

The blue ocean strategy suggests that when a market is saturated, the best way to enter such market is to create a new source of consumers for the goods offered in the market. A good analogy is the Wii. The computer game industry was already saturated by XBOX and Play Station, and yet, not everyone had a game console. So the makers of the Wii created a completely new group of consumers for gaming consoles, old folks, children and people that felt that the traditional gaming console was a complete waste of intellectual capacity.

The Obama campaign, in this election, has managed to create a completely new and energized group of consumers of politics; the youth.

It is critical to understand that without the youth vote, Obama will not be in the position he is today, at the cusp of becoming the first African American president. The get out the vote drive and the aggressively courted youth of Iowa helped swing the primaries in that state and gave the nation a moment to pause and take a second look at the then challenger and underdog in the primary race.

The concept is quite simple, sometimes too simple. The electorate as it stood was deeply divided and had pre-existing allegiances. Trying to convert them to the Obama camp would be similar to the makers of Wii creating a game console that looked like the XBOX and PS2, only with different and maybe better features, but marketed it to the same group of consumers. It would be possible but it would take time, lots of resources and maybe they get a 30% conversion rate, not bad for a business looking to make profits.

However, in elections 30% conversion rate would not win you the state, so the campaign did the smartest thing they could come up with, create a completely new electorate and work hard to make sure they turn out and vote. They tapped into something no other presidential candidate has been able to do thus far; get the youth out to vote.

Granted the maturity of the internet has provided them with tools and mechanism that has helped the campaign to be extremely successful. But these tools still had to be used effectively and strategically to produce the kinds of effect we see today. I am amused when I watch the pundits on cable news. They make all sorts of assertions and analysis, thinking that they may influence the electorate. Well the real news is that the people the Obama campaign targets don’t even have cable. Most don’t even have time to watch these programs, their interests lie elsewhere and they get most of their news online.

What is even more interesting is that the pundits and political “experts” discount the youth vote. Despite the facts on the ground and the displayed ability of the Obama campaign to turn out the youth vote as evident in Iowa and many other states across the country. To me this is the genius of this strategy. Everyone else, including the republicans, do not even try to court this group as aggressively as they should because of their lack of faith in the persistence of the youth vote. Some even contend that the Obama campaign is wasting its time with this strategy.

Well, I say that the numbers you see in the polls will be nothing compared to what the final results will be, if we all do our part and work towards making sure that we get out as many people as we can to the polls. The potential is great, the prospects are bright and if we keep our focus in the right place, the rest of the nation will follow as we have seen in the past. Don’t let the news cycle and the attacks from the republicans distract you. They are just that- distractions. We have seen and heard Obama’s plans for the nation, his optimism about the future and his trust and belief in the American people. We can be all we dream and aspire to be, if we all do it together and not despair.

Yes we can!

I Cast My Vote Early

GigiIam.com — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 21:43:01 EDT

I did it! I went and voted early today (10-8-08)! I had my family with me. I made my voice heard and I am very excited about the enormous beneficial results it will bring about for all of us. This is a monumental moment in time and I am... to put it simply, thrilled!

Barack Obama excites me! I am very happy I Voted Early, it is an awesome feeling and I am floating. I am free to call and assist others to the polls and get them to vote early too. I'm making my calls and you'll find me at the Head Quaters office and this weekend in Culver City at the Culver City Studios making phone calls and doing data entry. What a ride! I encourage you to join me.

Barack Obama...Yes!

Sincerely,

Gigi Iam

GigiIam.com

Obama takes lead in Missouri!

C Dornfeld — Wed, 08 Oct 2008 14:38:03 EDT

According to a poll taken over the weekend by Fox News and Rasmussen, Sen. Obama has now taken the lead in Missouri by 3% after trailing Sen. McCain for months.

Missouri 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 50, McCain 47, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 0

CNN also shows Obama in the lead by 1% from a poll taken two days earlier. It will be interesting to see if there is impact from the debate last night and how this story will play out in Missouri - the only state to pick the president in every election for the past 80 years.

PBS has an online poll posted asking if Sarah Palin is qualified. WE ARE TIE.

Bobbi Miller-Moro — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 19:55:41 EDT

I received this from a friend today and it took me 20 seconds to do it. I request that you take the time to do it too and that you VOTE! It makes a difference. You make a difference. You are indispensible. Laurie

From: the Obama campaign group in San Jose.

PBS has an online poll posted asking if Sarah Palin is qualified. Apparently the right wing knew about this in advance, and they are flooding the voting with YES votes. The poll will be reported on PBS and picked up by mainstream media. It can influence undecided voters in swing states. Please do two things -- it takes 20 seconds. 1) Click on link and vote yourself. Here's the link: http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html 2) Then send this to every single Obama-Biden voter you know, and urge them to vote and pass it on. The last thing we need is PBS saying that their viewers think Sarah Palin is qualified!

Obama-Biden Gain in Latest National and Virginia Presidential Polls

Tom — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:59:06 EDT

The latest National and Virginia Presidential Election Polls show Obama making significant gains based on concerns about the economy. There polls show the election is still volatile with a significant number of undecided and uncertain voters. So it is important to focus our canvassing efforts on persuading independent, undecided, and uncertain voters that a vote for Obama-Biden and Democratic legislators is a decisive vote for change and renewal in US economic and foreign policy.

Virginia Polls (10/1 – 10/6) For Obama For McCain Spread

Lowest Poll (Mason-Dixon) 45% 48% McCain +3

Poll Averages (RCP Poll Averages) 49.9% 45.1% Obama +4

CNN/Time 53% 44% Obama +9

Highest Poll (Suffolk Univ) 53% 39% Obama +12

National Polls (10/1 – 10/6) For Obama For McCain Spread

Lowest Poll (Hotline/FD Tracking) 46% 44% Obama +2%

Poll Averages (RCP Poll Averages) 49.6% 44.1% Obama +5.5%

NBC/Wall Street Journal 49% 43% Obama +6

Highest Poll (CNN) 53% 45% Obama +8

It seems to me that Virginia is tracking the National average which is strange for a former republican stronghold and battleground state. The question in my mind is which regions and segments of the voting population are voting for Obama and which are undecided and uncertain that we can focus on to persuade them to vote for Obama-Binden and Change. Can we do it in Virginia?

Regards,

Tom Kuehn

See Extended Post for Tracking Poll Links

WSJ-NBC Poll:McCain's Lobbyists Matter to Voters

Cynthia A. Casby — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:43:06 EDT

Today's LA Times reports a Wall Street Journal-NBC poll found that more than half of the respondents were bothered that McCain has former lobbyists for big corporations working for his campaign.

I think it is time to tie the Keating scandal and McCain's history of helping those like Keating to the lobbyists in the McCain camp who want a McCain administration to promote policies favorable to their clients.

But we have to bring it home to people. Let's put up an ad naming names - put up the pictures of these so-far-unnamed lobbyists and list the companies they have lobbied for, how much they collected, and how recently they ended those relationships, if at all. If the poll is right it could add to the erratic behavior to cast more doubts on McCain's judgment.

New Polling Place for Precinct 59

Monica — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 20:14:05 EDT

For all of the voters in Precinct 59 of Brazoria County. Our polling place has changed to Nolan Ryan Junior High School. The brand new school off of 2234 (near CVS) and Kirby.

We had been voting at Mary Marek Elementary up until this election and I thought it was important for everyone to know about the locaton change.

I am the Presiding Election Judge for Precinct 59. Election Day will be very busy and I encourage everyone to vote early. Our closest early voting location is the Westside Event Center and early voting begns on October 20th.

Please contact me if you have questions or need assistance 832-816-8175 cell.

Monica M. Lawrence, JD

Voting Attire, No Political Flare

Brandi Lou — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:42:26 EDT

Subject: No Political Attire When You Go Vote

From Grace: (Ohio)
PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE ADVISE EVERYONE YOU KNOW THAT THEY ABSOLUTELY CAN NOT GO TO THE POLLS WEARING ANY OBAMA SHIRTS, PINS, OR HATS. IT IS AGAINST THE LAW AND WILL BE GROUNDS TO HAVE THE POLLING OFFICIALS TO TURN YOU AWAY. THAT IS CONSIDERED CAMPAIGNING AND NO ONE CAN CAMPAIGN WITHIN ‘X’ FEET TO THE POLLS. THEY ARE BANKING ON VOTERS BEING EXCITED AND NOT BEING AWARE OF THIS LONG STANDING LAW THAT YOU CAN BET WILL BE ENFORCED THISYEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THEY ARE BANKING THAT IF YOU ARE TURNED AWAY, YOU WILL NOT GO HOME AND CHANGE YOUR CLOTHES. PLEASE JUST DON'T WEAR OBAMA GEAR OF ANY SORTS TO THE POLLS!! PLEASE SHARE THIS INFORMATION; AND FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO WERE ALREADY AWARE, THIS WAS NOT MEANT TO INSULT YOUR INTELLIGENCE. THANKS.

My initial response: (Portland, Oregon)

we vote by mail in oregon, but i'll pass this along to everyone in the case that it is true and let you all forward it at will to any other non-oregonians! it seems to me this would infringe upon our constitutional rights of freedom of speech/expression... but i don't really have time to look into this at the moment!? feel free to get back to me if you do!!! anyway, i'm thankful i can vote from home in my jammies or in the nude... assuming i was into that, of course, which i'm not ;)

take care, all, and happy voting incognito!?! much love, B. <3<3<3

From Annie: (Sulphur, Louisiana)

Of course this is true Fran! It is totally illegal to campaign at voting centers which makes a lot of sense to me. You are just imagining people wearing the clothes they want to wear, but the point of the law is to cut down on bullying and threats. It did used to happen in the old days when those in charge did not respect the secrecy of voting and would actually accompany folks into the booth. It's just an old law left over from different times.

My response:

fran, i do get the rationale behind it and can see how things were likely very different back in the day... i was just saying that i had never really thought about it (voting attire) that way before... you know, as "campaigning" rather than just "supporting" yer candidate... besides, i would think that most people go to the polls knowing who they're gonna vote for and aren't gonna be swayed by someone's flare ;) the threats/violence/intimidation/harassment rationale makes better sense... anyway, i got this response from mark this morning:

From Mark: (Hickory, NC)

I was just watching the morning news and remembered an email you sent. The email said not to wear obama shirts or the like to the voting booths because you could get rejected. well WBTV reported taht you could wear anything you like supporting your canidate, but you may not speak to anyone else about who they should vote for all campaigning must be done 50 feet from the voting establishments steps. So wear what you want and keep the chatter down. Later love ya!

From Annie: (SW La.)

Our news said that people would be asked to turn their shirts inside out when they got within 50 feet. Allow me to explain why we have laws that skew the line between supporting and campaigning and why they are to our benefit: As you know, Louisiana has a rep. for crooked politicians and a lesser known fact is that we are one of the most mob run states in the nation. This does cause problems at the polls. When it gets to the point of an area being run by thugs, what is there to do? Nobody can help you. Go into a higher court and everyone is covering up for each other. A comment such as "All we were doing was talking to people and rallying for their support," can put a person behind bars who was in actuality standing in a voting booth with a gun to someone's back, but just hasn't been proven to have done so. Wearing a T-shirt (in the old days buttons) or holding a sign could be a warning to the people of the presence around them (such as the KKK). You have to remember that a lot of these guys were doing things like hanging black folks and had such extreme control over the areas that they seemed unstoppable. One parish had a long time sheriff who literally went to war with the national guard over control of his area. This same concept is why intelligent people vote to keep Louisiana's archaic sex laws around. When a person has obviously committed rape, but it's a he said she said with the question of consent, the DA can put a person away for decades based on an act that they admitted to performing. This is scary, but law is a scary liquid creature that we can not live without. For that reason it is probably more important to pay attention to judge and DA elections than it is to pay attention to presidential elections. I forgot that we had an election Saturday and got a little sick over it. We were voting on judges and a new DA.

Here Comes The Smear

Charley James — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 11:44:57 EDT

My deep, sincere apologies to The Beatles for turning the title of their wonderfully hopeful song Here Comes The Sun on its head, especially to use it in describing the only tactics left to save the sinking Republican ship SS McCain with Cap’n Palin on the bridge.

But make no mistake: The last 30 days of the campaign will see McCain, Palin and their surrogates turn into an army of Dark Knights of Evil. In fact, the Republican campaign machine admits it.

''We're looking at a very aggressive last 30 days of turning the page on this financial crisis and getting back to discussing Mr. Obama's aggressively liberal record and how he will be too risky for Americans,'' senior adviser Greg Strimple told reporters on Thursday.

“Very aggressive” and “too risky” is politicode for mud slinging lies, half-truths, innuendo and surrogate-mounted smears, racial and other.

Freddie And Bill

It’s started already.

A few days ago I received an e-mail from a Deep South conservative Republican raising again the thoroughly discredited claim that the former heads of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are now working for the Obama campaign. Apparently, it’s not enough that both Fox News and The Washington Times – hardly liberal rags – debunked the smear weeks ago; die-hards will keep spreading the phoney news anyway.

And get this: The AP is reporting this morning that Sarah Palin accuses Barack Obama of "palling around with terrorists" for his association with a former 1960s radical.

Palin is referring to Bill Ayers, one of the founders of the group the Weather Underground in the 1960s. The group took credit for several bombings, including non-fatal explosions at the Pentagon and the Capitol four decades ago – when Obama was about eight years old.

In remarks Saturday to GOP donors in Englewood, Colorado, Palin said Obama seems to see the US as being so imperfect that, in her words, "he's palling around with terrorists who would target their own country."

Her idiotic statements were triggered by a New York Times story on Saturday that traced Obama’s sporadic interactions with Ayers, now a respected education professor in Chicago where he worked on an education project with Obama when the candidate was a community organizer and then state senator. Palin never mentioned that Ayers denounced his past activities decades ago.

As Stephen Fox, contributing editor of the New Mexico Sun News, put it in a blog post here, “I remember meeting Mark Rudd, who either blew up a building or tried to, I don't remember which. I met Angela Davis, and golly, very early one Sunday morning after one of the famous San Francisco Peace Marches to end the Vietnam War in 1967, I even saw Janis Joplin driving a yellow Porsche Convertible about 60 miles an hour through Haight-Ashbury.

“Just because 20 years ago, you befriend someone and talk intelligently with them, what does that mean, anyway? That you are learning. Does that mean you are sitting at the feet of the 9/11 bombers? Of course not, but the Republicans will use this ludicrous and deranged line of reasoning to scare the elderly as they have already done in South Florida, the undecided, the apathetic … who don't read (a newspaper) everyday,” Fox concludes.

Shifting Undecided’s

Meanwhile, undecided voters – can there actually be any of these still around? – are trending Obama, along with the rest of the country.

Undecided voters who watched Thursday's vice presidential debate really like Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin but they're not certain she's ready to lead the country, according to the findings of a new Ipsos/McClatchy poll published Sunday morning.

If they had to vote immediately after watching the debate between Palin and Biden, 52% of the 456 undecided voters who were surveyed would vote the Obama/Biden ticket, the poll found.

It also found that Palin's performance in the debate did nothing to clinch undecided votes for her running mate. Before the debate, those same undecided voters were leaning 56% to 44% for McCain. The day after the debate, the numbers tilted 52% to 48% for Obama.

No wonder the McCain-Palin campaign is starting to throw mud. It’s all they have left.

Just plain dishonest, and Americans aren't buying it.

Richard in Toronto - Still American After All These Years — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 09:51:56 EDT

The following is an excerpt from A country in shambles, under GOP rule - Glenn Greenwald - Salon.com. It certainly sums up the feelings of many Americans I know. John McCain and Sarah Palin are running one of the most dishonest campaigns in United States history, and Americans aren't being fooled by it. Maverick Schmaverick... John McCain and Sarah Palin are the poster people for the failed policies of George W. Bush. But worse than that, they insult our intelligence. -Richard

As polling data conclusively demonstrates, the mindset of the voting public is infinitely more rational and substance-based than the pundits and the Right fantasize when they lyrically praise the Regular American -- at least it is in this time of perceived (and actual) crisis. What's happening in this country, and in this election, is rather simple and easy to see: (1) the country is in total shambles -- possibly far worse than what people even realize; (2) we have lived for the last eight years under virtually absolute GOP rule; (3) the public knows this; (4) the Republican President and his party are therefore intensely -- historically -- unpopular; and (5) the voting public doesn't want to continue living under the rule of the same faction and same political party that has driven the country into the ground. Having Sarah Palin drop her gerund endings and desperately trotting out the standard, tired GOP attack ads to depict Obama as a radical, fist-pumping, America-hating, unhinged socialist -- when everyone can see with their own eyes that he isn't -- won't change any of that.
That the Right believes in the fundamental stupidity of the American voter while simultaneously pretending to revere and speak for them them is reflected in their belief that they can successfully blame the financial crisis and the country's woes generally on Democrats, who -- while hardly covering themselves with glory -- haven't had any meaningful power in this country for as long as one can remember. Ponder how stupid you must think Americans are to believe that you can blame the financial crisis on the 2004 statements of House Democrats about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when that was a time when the GOP controlled all branches of the Government and nothing could have been more inconsequential than what Barney Frank or Maxine Waters, languishing in the minority in Tom DeLay's tyrannical House, said or did about anything.
In sum, Americans hate the way the country has been ruled, the economic crisis is making them hate that more by the minute, and the country has been dominated by Republican rule for the last eight years -- at least. It's just this simple:

And the reality is even more imbalanced than that graph illustrates: between (1) the tiny margins the Democrats have had when controlling the Senate, (2) the true functional majority of "GOP + Blue Dogs" in the House, (3) the extraordinary centralization of power in the White House, and (4) Democratic complicity and fear, it is GOP policy which ends up prevailing in virtually every instance of alleged "bipartisanship" even during those tiny slivers of ostensible Democratic control.

The overarching reality of the country is that we've lived under unchallenged Republican rule and the country has virtually collapsed on every level. No matter how dumb Rich Lowry and David Brooks fantasize The Regular People to be, those facts are far too glaring to suppress.

Chance for Change - October 3 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 22:45:33 EDT

Update for October 3, 32 days to Election Day.

MCCAIN ON THE ROPES?

Something's happening - our simulation gives Obama a 99.6% chance of winning the election if it were held today, with an expected electoral vote total of 330. It hasn't been that high since July.

The pollsters are hard at work, and we entered new poll results from 29 states, of which eight had a significant impact on the outcome. Six of those were favorable to Obama. And the other two are kind of hinky.

Colorado flipped again, with Obama now leading by one, up from a three-point McCain lead. We used the Fox/Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters which shows Obama with a 49 to 48 lead. Other, older polls show Obama with a significantly larger lead. This is a close one - based on this poll, Obama has a 59% chance of capturing Colorado's nine votes.

If I were McCain, I'd be checking up on my organization in Florida. The lead in Florida has been changing back and forth but the trend is definitely in Obama's direction. The latest poll shows him up by three, better than his single-point margin last week.

The big campaign news this week was McCain's decision to vacate Michigan, all but conceding its 17 electoral votes to Obama. The latest poll has Obama over 50% and ahead of McCain by ten points. The guys at FiveThirtyEight.com apply their own analysis to McCain's decision and find it a sensible move by a campaign in trouble.

There's a disturbing development in Minnesota, where this week's poll shows McCain with a one-point lead. This is a SurveyUSA poll of 725 likely voters. Is it real? A CNN/Time poll of 849 likely voters taken at almost the same time puts Obama ahead by eleven. So this could be an outlier.

Nevada is back in Obama's column, but just barely. This week's poll has Obama up by one, after trailing by three last week. The polls in this state are not consistent, either, and a new result from Rasmussen available after we updated our model this week shows Obama up by four. This won't be included until next week, or perhaps not at all if there are more recent results available by then. Which there probably will be.

Even though New Hampshire has been close, I've always had a hard time believing that McCain could take this state, his history in the primaries notwithstanding. Our poll from New Hampshire this week has Obama up by twelve, and the latest Rasmussen poll (again, not available at the time we updated our model) shows Barack with a ten-point lead.

If Ohio goes for McCain I'm going to be really depressed, no matter how the overall election goes. Fortunately, I may not have to suffer that situation, since Obama has a six-point lead in the latest poll. McCain knows this is a must-win state, so I'm guessing that he picked Michigan to pull out of so his campaign workers can carpool down to Columbus to save money. You've heard us complain in previous postings that McCain's ads outnumber Obama's by two or three to one, but that ratio is changing. And Barack has some wonderful new ads up, very positive, very well done, while McCain is still polluting the airwaves with his bile. Obama's direct mail pieces are starting to show up, too, and they work. Finally, while flipping through the Dish Network channel guide, I came across the Obama channel - all Barack, all the time. I'm feeling better about the Buckeye state.

Virginia continues to be volatile, with the lead changing from Obama to McCain this week. Obama trails by three in the Mason-Dixon poll, but other polls contradict this result - InsiderAdvantage has Barack up by six, and CNN/Time has him up by nine. Hey, John McCain, Virginia's just a short drive from Ohio...I'm sure they'd love to see you down there...

We entered fourteen new poll results in the senate races. Only three showed any significant change. Georgia's race between Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin is a long shot, but two recent polls show Chambliss with only a two or three point lead, giving Martin a 30% chance to take this seat. In Kentucky, a few recent polls gave hope to Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford in his quest to unseat Mitch McConnell, but our most recent poll has McConnell up by nine, and Lunsford with a 2% chance of victory. But things are brighter in North Carolina, where a PPP poll shows Democrat Kay Hagan with an eight point lead over Elizabeth Dole. All told, the Democrats increase their likely total in the senate by one seat.

We need to keep fighting

Ivan Richmond — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 21:26:04 EDT

Good news! It's looking really good out there. Every sign seems to be show that Obama's ahead. That's great.

But it's not over. I guarantee you, the Republicans are going to keep on smearing Obama, bashing him, putting Palin up there to look pretty and talk to us all with her coy sexiness about how hungry everyone is for Alaskan oil. It gives me the creeps. So, we've got to keep fighting. Now that we're ahead, let's stay ahead. We can't give one inch. But, we've got to keep being civil. We're the good guys, so we should continue to act like it. But, we've got to keep fighting. We can win this and end the Bushite regime, but only if we give it everything we've got up until Nov. 4.

Sarah Lives To Gaffe Another Day

Charley James — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 10:43:52 EDT

As usual, post-debate bloviating wandered aimlessly through the night with assessments ranging from “she did better than we thought she would,” which is what parents say when their kid doesn’t strike out at a Little League game, to the thoroughly puzzling “America must be surprised.”

As usual, debate viewers are much more decisive, the first round of snap polls giving the debate to Joe Biden by sizable margins.

CNN's sampling said Biden took the clash by 51% to 36%, basically a trouncing.

And here’s the revealing number from CNN. While 84% said Palin did better than expected – well, the bar was set awfully low – she still doesn’t clear a basic hurdle: Watching the would-be vice president for 90 minutes left only 46% saying she’s qualified to be president, up a mere four points from before the debate. And a clear majority, 53%, continue to say she is not qualified for the job.

Meanwhile, CBS’ polling of 473 uncommitted debate-watchers found that 46% gave the evening to Biden, 21% say Palin won, and 33% say it was a tie. Splitting the tie votes between the two, 62.5% said Biden came out on top while fewer than half thought Palin took the night.

While both candidates saw their images improve, 98% ended up declaring Biden as “knowledgeable” after the debate, while only 66% saw Palin as knowledgeable. Admittedly, that’s a higher number than what folks thought of her before the debate but the McCain camp can take small comfort from the figure because Biden essentially ran the table of undecideds.

At Campaign Headquarters …

In the Virginia headquarters of the McCain campaign, the post-debate relief is palpable.

“We could have been blown out of the water,” one of my two sources inside the camp tells me this morning. “She didn’t make any horrid mistakes and she did what she had to do: Keep the base support firm."

What about reaching the undecideds, the independents, the Reagan Democrats? I ask, citing the snap poll tallies from right after the broadcast.

“That’s John’s job,” comes the reply. “All we wanted Sarah to do was keep us close enough to fight another day.”

So, essentially, Palin’s only task last night was to not screw up, not give the base a reason to flee in horror.

I ask about the moment when Palin actually suffers her much-anticipated Couric-like moment that escaped most commentators. Looking square in the camera, Palin actually proclaims the financial crisis “a toxic mess, really, on Main Street that’s affecting Wall Street.”

“I saw that, too,” he says, adding with relief, “I’m glad not too many people caught it. I’m glad Biden didn’t pounce all over that.”

Some eight hundred miles away in Chicago, one of my sources on Obama’s staff says everyone is happy with Biden’s job, especially after the first half-hour.

“Once Joe decided he had to swat at the gnat, he really came into his own,” is the assessment. “He kept his answers short, he stayed on point, he spoke to the audience in words they understood, and that moment when he choked up mentioning how he felt as his son lay dying in a hospital (after the car accident killed Biden’s wife and daughter and gravely injured his sons) we saw Joe being Joe. America saw it, as well.

“I wonder why she didn’t react act all,” I’m asked. “Didn’t it seem odd that the world’s greatest hockey mom had no reaction to someone fighting back tears when he talks about losing a child? Where were her ‘family values’”?

Explaining The Obvious

People tuning in to the debate were already expressing deep concerns about Palin's understanding of issues and solutions. As a result, Palin's folksiness was far less effective than when she strode the stage in St. Paul six weeks ago to unveil her “ya’ know” and “ya’ betcha” lines. People aren't worried that she "isn't one of us," so her aw-shucks shuffling didn't help last night. On the other hand, people are concerned that she doesn't understand the issues of the day, and she did nothing to reassure them.

Biden jumped on her disjointed mish-mash of foreign policy non-sequiturs and talking points to spell out a clear difference between what the audience was hearing from Palin and the real world in which Biden and Obama live:

On one front, Palin did not disappoint: She remains a habitual liar, a flip-flopper and someone who has no idea what she’s saying.

In the debate, she espoused strong support for equal benefits for same sex couples. But Palin told the Anchorage Daily News, “I believe spousal benefits are reserved for married citizens on (sic) our Constitution,”

Palin sidestepped Biden’s claim that McCain argued against greater regulation on Wall Street, contributing to the debt crisis. Palin’s claim is that McCain supported the Federal Housing Enterprise Regulatory Reform Act of 2005, which would have created a new government agency to oversee Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other federal housing programs. In fact, the bill would have done nothing to stop the rash of predatory subprime lending that preceded the housing bubble. It only provided oversight for Fannie and Freddie – but it said nothing at all about the companies that issued subprime mortgages. So while Palin brought it up as an example of how McCain is the “re-regulator,” she avoided Biden’s straight rebuttal.

Oh. And Palin called the commander of the NATO force in Afghanistan "McClellan" instead of using his name, General David McKiernan. Maybe she confused McKiernan with George McClellan, an awful Civil War general who was so reluctant to fight the Confederate Army Pres. Lincoln finally fired him. The only thing reassuring about this possibility is it shows Palin remembers something from her time at, what?, five universities in six years.

Mapping the Polls

Henry M — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 11:47:19 EDT

Thanks to David J for letting me know about this map of the current status of how the electoral votes are stacking up based on the results of polls: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Henry M

Happy to See Obama Leading in Recent Polls

James from Beverly Hills, CA — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 10:38:40 EDT

The recent polls conducted by AP along with another agency tells that Barack Obama is leading and has managed to get a 7 point lead.

After the debate, Barack is more popular among women.

Barack is also starting to make a permanent lead over Republican John McCain.

See a report here on a website Topnews

CNN/Time & Quinnipiac polls put Obama over the top

Nick Winlund — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 22:16:16 EDT

Obama Opens Lead in Six of Seven Swing States, Two Polls Show - October 1, 2008

Bloomberg - Barack Obama's lead widened over Republican rival John McCain in key swing states, including Florida, Ohio, Nevada and Pennsylvania, propelled by his debate performance and the worsening economy, two polls showed.

The Democratic presidential nominee gained ground in seven battleground states and leads in six, according to two surveys conducted after he and McCain debated on Sept. 26 and as Congress haggled over a $700 billion plan to rescue financial markets.

The economy is the biggest drag on McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, the three states surveyed by Quinnipiac University and the biggest electoral prizes in the group, according to Peter Brown, the assistant director for the poll.

[ snip ]

Electoral Votes

Together, the seven states have 107 of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to claim the White House.

The Quinnipiac surveys were conducted Sept. 27-29 and the Time/CNN polls Sept. 28-30, as Republican and Democratic lawmakers and the Bush administration labored to reach agreement on a package of measures to ease the tightening credit crisis.

[ snip ]

In Florida, Obama leads McCain among likely voters 51 percent to 43 percent in the Quinnipiac poll and 51 percent to 47 percent in the CNN/Time survey . . .

Polls - How It Adds Up

Mel — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:44:42 EDT

I’ve sat wrapped in my own political pragmatism and belief that the government should manage the country for the benefit of all citizens not understanding how it’s possible for 40-45% of Americans to consider voting for any Republican ticket.

34 Days to the Election... What are our priorities???

Dave — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 21:47:46 EDT

Dear Friends,

It’s been a couple days since the first McCain/Obama debate, and it time to reflect on the debate's result. I listened to the debate on the radio, and like many Obama supporters, heard McCain make numerous aggressive attacks on Obama while Barack held his fire in response. Why didn't Obama counter-punch?

The answer appears to be in the polls taken in the immediate aftermath of the debate which show Obama performed well, as voters increasingly saw him as "Presidential" after the debate. It is those nervous undecided Hillary, Independents, and Republican leaners that Obama was seeking to influence, not the hard core Democrat or Republican voters who are already on one side of the ledger or another. The subsequent polls show Obama building a more substantial lead over McCain (4-8% nationally), and it doesn't hurt that McCain and Palin continue to inflict an endless number of gaffs and il-considered ploys since the debate.

Virginia appears to be leaning towards Obama, but Obama's lead in the Virginia Presidential election continues to be razor thin. A close view of the polls indicates the events of the last week have shaken the confidence voters who, until recently, were marginally leaning towards McCain/Palin. Anecdotally, I found a large increase in the number of undecided voters this past weekend over the previous four weekends I have canvassed in Gloucester County.

It is hugely important that the Obama campaign (e.g. that is you and I) reach out to these new undecided voters RIGHT NOW while they are in a mindset to hear Obama's message. We need to be compassionate with these newly minted undecided voters. They drank the Kool-aid in 2000 and 2004 (and maybe back through the Reagan years), believing the Karl Rove distortions on the Iraq war and the economy, believing that giving huge amounts of money to the richest 1% will somehow help main street. They are confused and shaken, and need to be guided gently into voting for Obama.

Side Bar: A Crisis of Faith - Slow Rise for a New Era, Harold Meyerson, Washington Post

I did not understand it at first, but Obama was speaking to these undecided voters in the first debate, coming across convincingly as a confident, poised, and thoughtful Presidential candidate. Obama gave us this opportunity; I encourage the Obama volunteers make the most of Obama's debate performance to engage our newly undecided neighbors and shepherd them into the Obama camp. With only 34 days until the election, I encourage everyone to redouble your efforts to reach out to voters: Call, Canvas, and Write for the campaign, and speak your neighbors. Last, and not least, DONATE to the campaign (Obama needs your contribution now more than ever)!

If Obama wins Virginia, he will very likely win the Presidential election!

McCain-Palin drop 8pts in Florida Polls

vette58 — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 17:33:29 EDT

With the troubled economy and Palin's obvious inability to serve as VP is starting to reflect in the polls. About time folks started to pay attention. Although I don't get caught up in the polls I found this interesting. I don't beleive the pollsters are taking into account the new registered voters nor those registered but so disappointed that they don't vote. I truly believe America will be shocked on Nov 4th at the turnout for Obama. Go to

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/troubled-economy-sarah-palin-mccain-drop-florida-093008001.html

John Wayne McCain

E. Musing — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 22:47:39 EDT

John Wayne McCain He's the man of many names, McPalin, McClueless, McBush, McDrama, McLiar and many others that shall remain un-uttered in this post. Most of you know him as John McCain. It seems that his recent antics announcing that he had "suspended his campaign and was returning to Washington to save the day and get the bailout package planned" are deserving of yet another moniker, "John Wayne" McCain.

Yes, "John Wayne McCain, concerned about his sagging poll numbers and the headlines that informed the American people that his campaign adviser was getting paid by Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac until the government took them over, John McCain sought to distract and divert attention in an unusual move and quite a big gamble that made a big splash in the news, but left McDrama flat on his backside when the plan backfired.

"John Wayne" McCain had heard that a deal was near and decided to hitch his wagon to it in the most dramatic of ways. Being the gambler he is, he saw his opportunity as this as a "win, win, win win". McDrama sought to "Win" by undermining Obama and making him look like a weakling and man of non-action who just wanted a joint statement instead of "taking charge". He saw a "Win" by potentially getting the Vice Presidential debate canceled and moving the Presidential debate to that date. This way he could rescur damsel Sarah Palin in obvious distress after the Couric interview. He saw a "Win" to potentially become the champion of saving the economy by being in Washington just at the right time the bailout bill was being approved. And finally, McDrama saw a "Win" by being able to create so much noise that nobody would notice the headlines were screaming the embarrassing news about his campaign poll numbers and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac lobbyist payment ties to his campaign. But it blew up in his face and made him look "un-presidential".

So what can we expect next from McDrama? Inquiring minds want to know. Now that we've seen a few of these "shoot from the hip" maneuvers we are all wondering, just as Michael Tomasky does, what McCain's next stunt will be. Well Tomasky sums it up quite well:

"The Times (UK) offered a good one yesterday: Bristol Palin and what's-his-name may get married before the election. The article notes that she turns 18 on October 18. Money quotes:

"It would be fantastic," said a McCain insider. "You would have every TV camera there. The entire country would be watching. It would shut down the race for a week."...

..."What's the downside?" a source inside the McCain campaign said. "It would be wonderful. I don't know that there has ever been a pre-election wedding before."

Whether this is one crackpot in the campaign just dreaming or something more than that we don't know. But honestly. We've really heard it all now. If this actually happens, it will verify every worst thought any person could have had about John McCain and Sarah Palin and then some. It will be evidence not merely of their cynicism, but truly of some kind of disease in their brains, some form of sociopathy that I think most Americans will see for what it is.

Back on planet Earth, though, the stunt possibilities are still virtually limitless. It's just not possible to predict, because to be able to predict, you'd have to be able to think like these people, and no normal human can do that. So we'll just need to wait."

And while "McDrama" keeps looking for opportunistic holes, "No Drama Obama" will keep gaining in polls.

E. Musing

Don't Wear Election Day T-Shirts to the Polls

Henry M — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 11:23:17 EDT

Please remember that if you wear any campaign clothes to the polls on election day, including hat's shirts, or buttons, you will be turned away! Please pass along this info when getting out the vote!

Midnight Tuesday, September 30th, is the financial reporting deadline for this month.

The resources we have on hand going into October will determine our ability to compete in key battleground states.

Your donation today will help fund time-sensitive voter registration and Get Out The Vote operations -- which need resources immediately to be effective.

Will you make a donation of $30 or more before Tuesday's deadline? You'll receive a limited edition Election Day T-shirt.

Your shirt will arrive no later than Friday, October 17th, so you'll have plenty of time to show off your support and remind your friends and neighbors to vote for Barack.

Or you can choose to donate $15 or more and receive an Election Day car magnet.

Your support has never been more important than it is right now.

You'll help build the biggest voter mobilization movement in presidential history.

Thank you for your support,

Henry M

Debatable Reactions

JeffW — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 01:41:21 EDT

I saw a little of the debate but listened to all of it on the radio last Friday.

My immediate reaction was that McCain helped himself by putting Obama on the defensive through much of the debate. I wanted Obama to smack McCain down. After all, I am a partisan supporter.

Then I started reading other reactions, especially the real-time focus groups and the early polling. I realized that I'm not the audience that Obama is focusing on in these debates. The debates are for the undecided voters. Many of those people don't know who Obama is. They know he has a funny name, is black (well, half white but that doesn't seem to count in America), might be a foreigner, and has been called a pretty-boy celebrity empty suit who isn't ready to take that 3 am phone call.

What they saw was an intelligent, articulate, poised, and knowledgeable person who is prepared to be president and understands their problems and issues. He made double digit gains in these areas in all of the polls I saw. He dominates on the question of whether or not he understands voters' problems and issues. The only area that McCain out-shone Obama is in being considered the more negative candidate. Undecided voters don't seem to like that.

The polling validates the focus group responses conducted during the debates.

Obama helped himself quite a bit in the national security debate that should have favored McCain due to common perceptions on McCain's strength in this area. That perception is entirely over-rated but is still there.

For polling junkies like me

Christopher Alvarado — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 21:08:15 EDT

I reckon that most of you folks, being interested in politics like me, are also keeping track of the polls. Rather than click through all of the different news websites to try to figure out where Barack stands in the electoral vote count, try one of these two sites on instead:

Electoral-vote.com is the original (as far as I can tell) website for determining hwo the electoral votes stack up. It is generally on-the-ball.

However, FiveThirtyEight.com (named for the number of electoral votes up for grabs) takes a slightly different (and yet, more elegant) tack. Instead of calculating EVs by the last polls taken, 538 instead gives each poll different weights depending on their methodologies, past performances, and how recently said polls were taken.

I prefer the latter, myself, but I could stare at statistics all day.

Presidential Debate - Review, Polls and Highlights!

Brian Sharma — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 21:24:25 EDT

The results are in - BARACK OBAMA WON LAST NIGHT'S DEBATE!!

My Review

Partisans preferred their own candidate, but Independents saw Obama as the better choice. Barack's answers seemed more rational, well thought out, and he appeared more presidential overall. And part of the reason is because he didn't ATTACK McCain.

I was watching on CNN, and they had a "reaction" meter. EVERY time there was negativity, that meter went DOWN, no matter who was speaking. People realize we need a bipartisan leader for REAL change.

McCain claims to be a bipartisan leader, but he kept saying "Obama doesn't understand" and "Obama doesn't get it". On the other hand, Obama kept saying "I agree with John, BUT..." and "John is right, BUT..." showing that you don't have to attack your opponent just because you have a different opinion.

I think Obama did a wonderful job of treating McCain with respect, while showing strength and getting his messages across. Obama even let McCain get away with minor attacks while he focused on issues that are more important to all Americans.

Grades: Obama A-, McCain C+

FYI, this debate was critical for McCain. It may be difficult for him to recover.

Who won last night's debate?
                                       Obama     McCain
CNN                              51%          38%
CBS                                  39%       25%
MSNBC                           52%         33%
AOL                                   46%       44%
Wall Street Journal         58%          39%
NY Daily News                 68%          32%

TIME's Report Card:
                                       Obama     McCain
Substance                        B+            B-
Style                                    A                 C-
Offense                               B                  C+
Defense                               A-                B-
Overall Grade               A-               B-
Summary - John McCain
McCain was McCain - evocative, intense, and at times emotional, but also vague, elliptical, and atonal. Failed to deliver his "country first versus Obama first" message cleanly, even when offered several opportunities. Surprisingly, did not talk much about "change," virtually ceding the dominant issue of the race.
Summary - Barack Obama
Went for a solid, consistent performance to introduce himself to the country. He did not seem nervous, tentative, or intimidated by the event, and avoided mistakes from his weak debate performances during nomination season (a professorial tone and long winded answers). Standing comfortably on the stage with his rival, he showed he belonged - evocative of Reagan, circa 1980. He was so confident by the end that he reminded his biggest audience yet that his father was from Kenya. Two more performances like that and he will be very tough to beat on Election Day.

WATCH THE HIGHLIGHTS

Obama: 'You were wrong' about Iraq VIDEO

Obama: Focus on Bin Laden and Al Qaeda VIDEO
Obama: Priorities Beyond Iraq War VIDEO
Just For Fun: Bill Maher & Chris Rock Review the Debate VIDEO

Chance for Change - September 26 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 12:24:54 EDT

Update for September 26, 39 days to election day.

I GOT BLISTERS ON MY FINGERS!!

The results of our simulation didn't change significantly from last week. Obama's odds went from 93.9% to 94.5% and his expected electoral vote total went from 301 to 308. But it took us a long time to come to that conclusion.

We entered new poll results from 44 states! We now have poll results from 49 states plus the District of Columbia dated after the conventions. Only our poll from Massachusetts is getting stale, but the outcome of that contest is not in doubt. These are the most reliable results we have so far.

And it's good news for Obama. Not because there was a lot of movement in his direction - in fact, there were a number of states that moved toward McCain, and some that moved the other way. It's good news because there was actually little change. The race seems to have stabilized, with some movement in Obama's direction. One piece of evidence is that the number of undecided voters in many states is going down, and Obama is maintaining his lead.

Of the 44 new poll results, there was significant change in 11 states. Colorado flipped again, going from a solid ten-point lead for Obama to a three-point lead for McCain, based on an American Research Group (ARG) poll of 600 likely voters. But we have conflicting polls from Colorado conducted at roughtly the same time: Rasmussen has Obama up by three, and Insider Advantage has Obama up by nine. So, who is ARG? Hard to say. There's nothing on their website that gives any clue about who they are or what they're mission might be. If you use the Rasmussen results instead of the ARG results, Obama's win percentage goes from 94.5% to 96%, and his expected vote total goes from 308 to 313. But we always look on the dark side here at Personable Longings.

Obama's lead in Michigan dropped from nine points to three points, and his odds went from 98.8% to 77.4%. But Michigan is another state in which we have conflicting results. We have ten new poll results from Michigan since last week, which range from a three-point McCain lead to a thirteen-point Obama lead. We just used the most recent result. But we could safely assume that Michigan is stronger for Obama than our model predicts.

Minnesota dropped from a twelve-point lead to two points. Ohio was one point up for Obama last week, now McCain leads by a point. Obama also lost his six-point lead in New Hampshire - McCain now has a three-point advantage in the contest for these four electoral votes.

Obama trailed last week in Nevada and South Dakota, and he trails by more this week in both states.

So why did Barack's numbers improve this week?

Obama is resurgent in Missouri, cutting McCain's ten-point lead to two points, giving him a 29% shot at winning these eleven votes. McCain had a two-point advantage in New Mexico last week, but trails Obama by seven this week. North Carolina flipped from an eleven-point McCain lead to a two-point Obama lead. This is not an outlier - there are several polls showing the race in North Carolina as very close. Finally, Obama now leads in Virginia by five, compared with a two-point disadvantage last week. This newly-christened battleground state also has a range of results from recent polls, but all of them show it close. With 13 votes at stake, this is one to watch.

First Presidential Debate Polls

Scott A. Giordano — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 22:23:55 EDT

www.drudgereport.com, www.politico.com, www.cnn.com

Polling Expert Says Youth Vote is Being Under Counted

JeffW — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 02:39:17 EDT

Also on FiveThirtyEight.com, there is a short posting about Ann Seltzer's view that most pollsters are under counting the youth and black vote. You may have also have heard that many polling organizations have changed the weighting they are giving to Democrats. They are giving Democrats less weight and Republicans more. This, despite the wide-spread reporting of record voter registration for Democrats all over the country. There must have been millions of Democrats who showed up to vote in their primaries for the first time. A whole lot of them came out for Obama. Do those folks stay home in November? I don't think so.

I Don't Believe the Polls

Aisha Leach — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 00:43:44 EDT

I don't believe the polls. I never have. I don't understand how CNN.com can continue to post polls that were conducted by calling 1,200 people on their land lines to get a true gauge of the public's feelings about the election.

Poll Worker for Election Day

Kelly Wilcox, Montgomery County MD Supporter — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 22:22:13 EDT

WASHINGTON -- An increased significance of the D.C. area's presidential primaries probably means more voters will be at the booths, causing concern about the number of poll workers.

News4's Cheryl Butler reported that election boards in D.C., Montgomery County, Md., and Loudoun County, Va., are in desperate need of poll workers before the Feb. 12 primaries.

The D.C. Board of Elections needs 1,500 poll workers to man 142 precincts. The greatest need is in Wards 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6.

Montgomery County officials need to fill 460 election judge positions out of 3,200 slots. The need for judges is greatest in Bethesda, Silver Spring, Chevy Chase, Gaithersburg and Kensington.

"Montgomery County is highly Democratic," said Marjorie Roher. "We have a voting population that is 2-to-1 Democrats over Republicans. We are challenged in locating Republican election judges."

The situation is similarly dire in Loudoun County, where 750 poll workers are needed to handle the primary and the Nov. 4 general elections. The demand for workers is greatest in Sterling, Potomac Falls, Leesburg and Ashburn.

If people don't volunteer, it means longer waits for voters.

"You really may be standing in long lines," said Dianna Price, of Loudoun County. "We cannot process people fast enough. Our hope is we could process one person every minute, and it would be nicer if we could process someone every two minutes."

Adult poll workers in the region get a $120 stipend. Poll workers may start as early as 5 a.m. or 6 a.m. and may not finish until 9 p.m., 10 p.m., or 11 p.m.

To find out more about how to volunteer as a poll worker:

D.C. Board of Elections
202-727-2525
DCBOEE.org

Montgomery County Board Of Elections
240-777-8533
777vote.org

Loudoun County Board Of Elections
703-737-8247
dianna.price@loudoun.gov

Election Forecast Predicts Obama in November

Mary Ferguson — Tue, 23 Sep 2008 08:01:09 EDT

The following press release is very reassuring for Obama supporters, but a search on Google News shows that very few news outlets have picked it up. In fact, it's gotten more coverage in Australia than in the U.S. Why is that?

Mary

Sep. 9, 2008

Election Forecast Predicts Obama in November

'Time for Change' model has predicted popular vote winner for past 20 years

Emory University political scientist and polling expert Alan Abramowitz has crunched the numbers for his presidential election forecast and has found in the data a potentially decisive win for the Democrats. His "time for change" model predicts that Democratic nominee Sen. Barack Obama will win the majority of the national major party popular vote: 54.3 percent vs. 45.7 percent for Sen. John McCain.

A popular vote margin of this magnitude would almost certainly translate into an overwhelming majority in the Electoral College, Abramowitz says. His forecast has correctly predicted the popular vote winner within two percentage points or less in every presidential election since 1988.

Race in the Race

Pat Smith — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 21:43:29 EDT

By Patricia Wilson-Smith

It's been a roller coaster ride. For those of us who have been Obama supporters from Day One, it's been like being on the world's largest roller coaster after eating a chili dog from Atlanta's famed Varsity Restaurant. It's actually even worse.

First - we endured the looks of confusion on the faces of our friends and family, when we told them we were going to a meeting of Barack Obama volunteers. "Barack what?" was the most frequent response to such a pronouncement. A brief explanation of who Barack Obama was back then, almost always elicited the same response. "Girl, you crazy. This country not gon' vote fa no black man."

I can remember it like it was yesterday. Even my 77 year-old mother, turning up her nose at me in disgust over what she perceived as my colossal waste of time - the meetings, the phone calls, the organizing. She accused me of caring more about "that Borock O-bama" than I did her, my house, or my son. Or even my job. And yes, she was sure, with everything in her, that he had no chance of winning the nomination. No chance at all.

But the early supporters endured, all the way through Super Tuesday, when the people of Iowa, most of them white Americans sent a lightning bolt through the country by casting their ballots mostly for the junior Senator from Illinois. The news was a-buzz with the historic nature of what was perceived at the time as a Clinton upset, and everything began to change. Some of my brothers and sisters, my friends and family began to actually ask themselves, "could it really happen?"

But consequently, all manner of new ludicrousness began:

"The Clintons have always been there for black people - what do we know about this dude?"

"He's not black enough - he don't care about our issues!"

"A vote for him is a wasted vote!"

"He need to change his name if he wants to even have a chance!"

And my personal favorite..."I can't vote for that man, they might assassinate him!"

Black people were running into each other emotionally - we didn't know what to feel or what was coming next. And then the Obama campaign machine proved to us all that not only could he win the primary - he also had a chance - some chance, of winning the election.

How did they do it? In part, by almost completely playing down Senator Obama's race, and instead opting to highlight his skills as a uniter and change agent. He wowed us all black, white and brown, with his ability to help us see what was possible, and gave us all a reason to feel a hope that was so strong, that by the time the Reverend Jeremiah Wright flap reached it's climax, we had begun to believe that Senator Obama was uniquely qualified to help begin truly turning the battleship of racial bigotry in this country. It seemed that he might even have had what it took to help the white majority in this country better understand the black condition; why for some, an anger still boils just below the surface, as he did in his now historic speech from Philadelphia. And though it was a rough and rocky road, he made it through and we began to believe even more.

Then, of course, he fought hard and long to make it across the finish line to clinch the nomination. And before I knew it, all the nay-sayers were loudly celebrating, and proclaiming their disbelief over his accomplishment, and daring to believe that this country truly had crossed an important milestone. It was time to look ahead to the General Election, and so many of us had hope in our hearts, and a renewed belief in the progress we'd made as a nation.

More money raised than any campaign in history. A trip abroad that proved he is loved and admired by citizens of other nations in a way that is unprecedented in American politics. And an acceptance speech, given in Denver's Invesco Field, to over 84,000 supporters, all crowning achievements for a campaign that has been almost flawlessly executed, and that also by the way, stopped one of the most prolific political machines of our time dead in it's tracks.

And now that we are several weeks into the General Election, a daunting question is again beginning to take center stage amongst the pundits and nightly news media. A question that given the dire nature of our economy, the general distaste for the human and monetary costs of the war in Iraq, the record number of foreclosures, and the general and overriding belief that the nation is heading in the wrong direction, begs for an answer - is race the reason why Senator Obama is not at least 20 points ahead of John McCain in the polls?

I was at Invesco field when Senator Obama gave what was by all accounts an incredible speech. On the way out, as I followed the throng of people exiting the arena, I over heard a conversation between two white gentleman, who, after being suitably impressed by his speech and the flawless execution of the whole night, wondered aloud about the same thing:

"Man, that speech was amazing. That crowd was amazing. I don't understand why we're not up by 20 or 30 points in the polls", said the first gentleman.

"It's his race, pure and simple", said the second. "It's hard to believe, but there are still a lot of people out there that just won't vote for a black man."

I could feel tears well up in my eyes. Because it dawned on me at that moment that despite the crowds, despite the miraculous fund-raising, the inspirational and sometimes brilliantly instructional speeches - it might still in the end, come down to how many people in this country can set aside their irrational prejudices in order to do what's best for the nation. There are no two ways about it - the shockingly low difference in the candidates' poll numbers in my opinion, bears this out.

It reminds me of one of the most amazing, and yet most chilling movies I've ever seen - "A Time To Kill". In it, Samuel L. Jackson, the father of a young girl, has to stand trial for murdering two white men who had brutally beat and raped his daughter, and left her for dead at the bottom of a lake. By some miracle, the girl was found and saved, but her womb had been destoryed, and she bore outward physical scars, and internal scars that would never go away.

Despite the brutal nature of the crime, Jackson's character was treated like a vigilante, an angry black man bent on exacting justice against the perpetrators of the horrible crime against his daughter; the white inhabitants of the small town gave hardly a thought to what the little girl had gone through, and wanted Samuel L. to fry for murdering the men who were clearly guilty, and clearly unrepetent. The anguish he must have felt at the thought of what was done to his daughter, the insanity it must have induced never entered most of the town's minds. Enter Matthew McConaughey.

Matthew McConaughey was Samuel L's defense attorney. Faced with a jury of all whites, from a southern town where racial disharmony was the norm, and working for a defendant who had in fact murdered the two men in question, the odds were against he and Samuel L. And it looked like it was all but over until he did something extraordinary.

If you saw the movie, you know what he did. He stepped up before the jury, and asked them to use their imaginations to invision the little black girl, as he told the anguished story of what she had endured at the hands of the perpetrators. He described every blow, every atrocity in graphic enough detail to paint a vivid, disturbing picture. And at the end of it all, he asked the jury to picture it, really picture it all - and then imagine that the girl was white.

I'm overcome by the need to do the same thing to the American people. I want to get a bull horn that will reach the rural areas of Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and the farms of Missouri. I want to implore them to imagine a man, who was a genius student, a graduate of Columbia University, who would go on to Harvard, graduate at the top of his class, become the president of the Harvard Law Review. Imagine that that man went on to become a constitutional scholar, and lecturer, and that rather than take the lucrative road to wealth and financial comfort for his family, chose instead to give himself over to a life of service as first an Illinois State Senator, and then a United States Senator. Imagine that this man, through his unique vision for the country, had inspired so many people, that he was literally called to service, and drafted to run for President of the United States. I want ALL of white America to picture it, really picture it all.

And then imagine that he's black.

PBS Poll

Sueg — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 10:23:51 EDT

Please take just a few seconds to vote AGAINST SARAH PALIN in this PBS poll
> that asks: "Is Sarah Palin qualified to be VP?"
>
> It is crucial that we do everything possible to have the polls refect real feelings on the ground.

We cannot afford to have these polls only reflect the feelings of the "Right" who are buying into the story that she "is qualified"!
>

Please -- Vote NO she is NOT QUALIFIED!© We need to be heard!
>
> It does not require sending any of your personal information.
>
> Click on this PBS link and vote now:

> http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html
>
> Thanks. Please forward this to everyone you know

Who is Getting Polled?

Richard — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 00:15:42 EDT

I am not by any means a media hater but I see the polls running neck and neck, now with a slight edge to Obama in most areas. My question is, who is getting polled? Do these polls accurately depict all the new voters that the Obama campaign has registered, where do these people show up in these tracking polls? It is my contention that the media on both sides have a stake in this race and it just happens to be your viewership.

It is kind of like the Superbowl almost every year. The hoopla rises and rises with every prediction of it being the "game of the century" and then winds up being a complete blowout by the guys we figured would win it in the first place.

My prediction will be this, Obama will be winning by huge numbers. The kind of numbers that saw Reagan beat Carter in 1980. There is a huge unsolicited crowd out there that is not being adequately represented in these polls and if we just manage to help them get out there and vote, the election is ours to be had.

Richard

Really Important Poll on PBS!

Sammie — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 15:53:16 EDT

I don’t know if this made it to the Obama groups, and I don’t know if Rove is actually paying anyone, but the results are saying that 52% of voters think Sarah Palin is qualified to be VP. If you disagree, please follow the link below.

Date: Sat, 20 Sep 2008
ACTION: Rove hijacking PBS. Vote now on PBS- Is Palin Qualified?!

Please do this..... here is a small thing you can do in two clicks. Check this out please and fast!

Karl Rove is paying people to HIJACK PBS and vote that Palin is qualified. We are losing 2:1 right now.

Let's turn this around!!!

PBS has a poll that asks: Is Sarah Palin qualified

You don't have to give your name or email address in order to vote.

It's very simple .

Here's the link:

http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html

Americans Believe Obama Most Likely to Deliver Change, Share Values, & Improve Global Standing

Deborah Simmel — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 07:16:39 EDT

A new New York Times/CBS News poll shows the Republicans' convention bounce has receded, and more people name Senator Obama as the candidate most likely to bring about change in Washington, more likely to share their values, and most likely to improve our nation's relations with foreign countries.

(Can we say a collective "I told you so"?)

Enjoy on your own: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/us/politics/19pollcnd.html?adxnnl=1&fta=y&adxnnlx=1221908420-6aZBOvBMDj2EOEqTEzx4Zw

Chances

SpottedDog — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 05:33:51 EDT

While Obama was sinking below McCain's polling data, I was still convinced that the missing data about cell phone users will turn out bo be crucial and that there will be a landslide victory for Obama. I think that way, still. But it will only work if everyone keeps working for Obama's election. Even good results in the polls shouldn't make us over confident! Keep working at it!!

And there is something else I want to say to the campaigners: Don't get into that pattern of lies that the opposite side is in! Stay the good guys and advertise it! Don't use too many half truths.

By the way: Does Obama have an answer to this bloody Chavez ad? Something equally subtle as his hints on leadership concerning the economy would be great!!

Regaining the Lead in the Polls

Craig Buckser — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 03:43:40 EDT

You saw it here first.

But what will happen next?

Chance for Change - September 19 Edition

The Kozmic Kid — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 00:23:19 EDT

Update for September 19, 46 days to election day.

BACK FROM THE BRINK

Barack's chances went from 51% based on last week's polls to nearly 94% this week. Whew!

The pollsters are busy, with new results from 19 states. Many states had multiple poll results, and most were consistent within a state, with only a couple of states having conflicting polls. Of the 19 new results we entered, only five had an appreciable effect on the election.

But they were a good five.

Colorado, with nine electoral votes, went from a three-point Obama lead to ten points this week, with Obama above the 50% mark. Barack's chances jumped nearly 25 points.

McCain's strength has been growing in Florida for weeks now, with last week's poll showing McCain up 50% to 42%. This week's poll shows the race tied at 46%, putting 27 votes back in play.

Michigan was virtually tied last week, with McCain having an advantage of a single point. This week Obama leads by nine, 52% to 43%.

Ohio continues to trade leads - McCain up by one last week, Obama up by one this week.

Finally, Virginia is still in play, Obama having cut McCain's four-point lead in half.

Taken together, Obama's odds are back above 90% and we can stop drinking the hard stuff.

All that said, we do have to point out to our faithful readers that our model is very simple - we assign the electoral votes of each state at random, based on the likelihood that one candidate or the other will win based on the results of the most recent poll. We don't try to aggregate poll results, and, significantly, we don't make any assumptions about how the undecided vote will go. And we don't try to account for third party candidates.

Well, our good friend Richard sent us a link to an article about some PhD scientists who have a model similar to ours - but they also try to estimate how the undecided vote will split. We've heard some of the Sunday Talking Heads say that Obama could lose as much as 75% of the undecided vote, which would certainly tilt the results in McCain's favor. We've looked at their method and it's hard to say just what they're doing, but the end result is comparable. We'll let our readers judge.

Why Obama is No Farther Ahead in the Polls.

Change O'8 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 14:03:08 EDT

Here's an interesting perspecticve:

"Instead, what shapes the consciousness of Americans are two psychodynamic issues: the level of their fear vs. the level of their hope, and the degree to which they feel recognized and respected by those who are seeking their vote. One of the terrible problems with the people who have pushed Obama to present himself as more "centrist" is that they don't understand how their role in pushing the candidate away from his own deepest truths has undermined his campaign and made him appear less authentic and hence less trust-worthy. So lets explore these issues."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rabbi-michael-lerner/why-isnt-obama-ahead-by-a_b_127594.html

Why this race is still so close

bh316 — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 13:00:16 EDT

I read an interesting article over lunch written by Rabbi Michael Lerner, Chair of the Network of Spiritual Progressives, about why Obama-Biden aren't ahead in the polls by more. He highlights the challenges Obama-Biden face when trying to connect with voters who are not left-leaning. It again hits upon the challenge of having the crucial conversation about who we are as a nation, what we care about, and what we can agree to work and fight for moving forward in unity.

Presidential Polls Over Time

Eric S. — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 10:01:27 EDT

Check out this page on nytimes.com. You can use the drop down to view numerous polls and see polls with certain state's results and dates!

We need to do more work in Florida!

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/polling/index.html#FL_7

"DO YOU" IN THIS ELECTION

Joyce from Indianapolis, IN — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 19:27:30 EDT

This election is about much more than lipstick and pigs, it is about the future of the country and it is about you. For a variety of reasons, this is going to be a close election and every single vote will count. EVERY SINGLE VOTE. This is not an election you can afford to leave to someone else to take care of. You will need to do you and take your power back and have a voice in the outcome. Time to stop talking and take action. Let there be no victims on your watch. There have been and will be efforts to distract you from what needs to be done, but you as a citizen of this country, as a member of this society, need to know what each candidate is about and vote accordingly. Yes, I am for Barack Obama, but those who genuinely believe that their interests are best served by McCain, you do you. I am big on looking at character and past behavior does dictate the future, so in a future post I will be talking about the Keating Five. The objective of this post is to encourage every single person to make sure that there are no excuses for your vote not being counted.

CAGING

For years, Republicans have engaged in "caging"--challengeng the eligibility of voters on election day to suppress turnout and intimidate voters They'll often try to reject voters by claiming they don't live at the address where they're registered. This year, they've taken it to a new low--the chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County, Michigan said last week, "We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren't voting from those addresses."

In other words, they'll target every voter whose house is on a foreclosure list, and challenge their voting rights on election day. But just because your name is on a list, it doesn't mean that you've lost your home or moved. In fact, many homeowners stay in their homes for months after the foreclosure process has begun, and some people are able to catch up on their payments and reverse the process. No matter what state you live in, if you have moved or your house is in foreclosure, check with your respective state's laws.

According to Money Talks, an online resource,
The Republican party is backpedaling, even calling the newspaper's story a fabrication, then saying if such a plan was in place, it was only talk and would not be carried out. In a conference call held by the Obama campaign Tuesday, campaign attorney Bob Bauer broke down what it really meant to be on a foreclosure list in this so-called "Lose Your Home, Lose Your Vote" scheme. "The fact of the matter is a home foreclosure list does not mean A - (the voters) don't live there or B, that the home has been lost. If they did lose their home, they could STILL vote. It's illegal and it's an attack on their right to vote," Bauer said. The Obama campaign has filed a complaint in the Michigan courts to block any attempt to stop voters using foreclosure lists on election day.

WHAT YOU CAN DO: I was told that this is an illegal process and should be challenged by you as voters, BEFORE November 4th rolls around. If you are an Independent or a Democrat, call the local party office or campaign office and ask about the legality of this process and what you need to do to help neutralize their ability to use any tactics to intimidate or turn away voters. Become a voter advocate at your own polling location. Consider creating a "know your rights" flier and hand them out in your community, before October 6th and before November 4th.

REGISTRATION CHALLENGE

LAST DAY TO REGISTER TO VOTE: OCTOBER 6, 2008

You can register to vote online www.VoteforChange.com makes it easier than ever to register. Instead of tracking down the right forms, all you need to do is answer a few basic questions and you'll be ready to vote. You can also:

-- Confirm your existing registration
-- Apply to vote absentee
-- Find your polling place

Have a laptop? Choose a couple of hours, even your lunch hour at work and use your laptop to register unregistered voters in your workplace, on campus, in high school, even at a local nursing home.

I had a great thought this morning. Why not challenge churches, community and member organizations to a Voter's registration competition on the night of the first Presidential debate? Each member of these organizations must bring at least one unregistered voter with them to the viewing party for the First Presidential Candidate Debate. that would be hosted by you as an individual or you and your friends, you and your church, you and your sorority/fraternity, organizations such as the LINKS, NCCW, NBMBAA, 100 Black Men, NAACP, Republicans for Obama, etc.

POLLS: The reason for so many polls that are being referenced on every news media available, is that there is a psychological effect of political poll information. There is an inherent part of a human being that likes to be on the winning team. So when someone hears polling statistics, one of three things occurs: 1) They pay no attention to the information, because their individual choice is based upon other factors. 2) they actually use the poll statistics to decide how to vote, JUST to be on the side they perceive to be the winning side or 3) They decide not to vote at all because the polls say their choice is going to lose so what's the use. So here are some reality checks you need to put into place when it comes to polls: No one really tells us who they are polling and how many people were polled, and what questions were asked to get the information. You see, I know from experience that many pollsters/surveyors ask questions in a way that will yield the answer desired by the client, which means the questions are biased. While there are different points of view on the number,there has to be at least 500 responses captured from a diverse number of sources, if the statistics are to reflect the opinion of a large group of people. And no one tells me who they asked or how many. Here's an example: on last night's news, the local television station in Indiana stated that their poll indicated that Obama had 47% of the votes, McCain 44%. This is a traditionally red state, so this was news. So imagine my surprise when watching CNN this morning and their polls showed McCain with 45% of the votes and Obama with 41% (I may be off by a point). Two different polls, one state, huge disparity. It just onfirmed for me that polls mean nothing.

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER. GET YOURS. PASS IT ON.

Because there are so many media sources, I have decided to use as many as I have access to and be creative in the messages. Right now I am doing a series of Video commentaries and posting them on You Tube on a regular basis. To view, go to: http://www.youtube.com/jemiltd.

FLORIDA: 48% McCain 48% in Latest POLL on MSNBC!

Dexhu — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 17:37:25 EDT

A poll Shown on the Chris Matthews Show on MSNBC Wednesday showed Barack Obama 48% John McCain 48%

I think this was a change of 6% that had Obama behind McCain!

I personally feel that FLORIDA can be taken by Obama as George Bush only took the state by 512 Votes in the whole state in 2000!

FLORIDA can be taken from the Republicans! I think Hillery campaigning here has helped already!

All we need to do is to be sure ALL Votes are counted!

Dr. Duane Elihu Xavier

McCain Seen as Less Likely to Bring Change

Jeremy Smith — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:37:19 EDT

New York Times

Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Finding our stride: Reasons to Keep Hoping

Cynthia A. Casby — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 11:03:43 EDT

Many supporters are getting worried, and not without cause. But that worry alone can be powerful thing. When we feel it we express it in many ways. And those ways may affect the undecided and voters just coming to awareness of the pending election. From a conversation with a neighbor, a relative across the country, a business associate or the clerk at the supermarket, your fear will seep out. So check your concerns at the door and find that hope that we all had at the start 20 months ago. Here are a few reasons to bolster your confidence:

The polls are wrong. They do not include the youth vote who do not qualify as likely voters because they haven't voted before, and don't have landline telephones, so they don't get polled. They will turn out when we text them on election day. See http://tinyurl.com/polls-USA. (Huffington post)
McCain has become more of a flip flopper than they said Kerry was - and the press is calling him on it http://tinyurl.com/view-McCain-LAtimes
Even Karl Rove, the dark lord himself, said McCain's people have gone too far in lying about Barack Obama! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbK3oPccMh4
Money wins elections http://topics.latimes.com/politics/people/barack-obama/2008-09
No one in the history of national politics has run a grassroots campaign for President. And grassroots activism WORKS!
They think Sarah Palin has energized their base, but she has energized OUR BASE! And the Republicans may be having second thoughts, see this blog post: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/09/sarah-palin-1.html
Hillary tried to co-opt the message, but it didn't fit and the voters knew that.
Hillary and Bill will be on board because they know its too important not to be. I was so proud of Bill when he gave his convention speech. I hope he goes out and reminds voters what GWB has done to ruin his legacy and why there is so much at stake in this election. Bill's speech is here if you missed it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-rZ2ZbgzGQ
WE ARE FIRED UP AND READY TO GO.

Talk to your friends, your family, and the people you meet and tell them we will win. Get as many as possible to jump on our bandwagon. Put out signs, send email, text, call, write, blog. We are the change we need.

HOPE. BELIEVE. ACT.

Inspire us with hope

Candice — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:34:17 EDT

Barack Obama, you changed the tone of the campaign this week. You brought it back to politics and policy. With all of the right policies, you should be winning in the polls.

Now look at the electorate. The stock market is in crisis and the Gulf coast is reeling from Hurricane Ike. We are eager for change, yet catastrophic change is already upon us. Now more than ever, we need our leaders to stand up with a message of hope, and deliver.

Again, I say it: Barack, take the highest of high roads. Right now, be the change you want to see.

You want a campaign free of smears? Praise your opponents.

You want a campaign based on truth? Tell us the truth about you. Your plans. Bring it back to you.

Barach Obama, you inspired a nation during the Democratic convention. You inspired us to believe for so many months. We learned all we could about you. We had the audacity to hope.

Then McCain pulled a rabbit out of his hat and inspired his own base.

You have no more rabbits. We all know your message.

All you can bring us is you.

Inspire us again. Speak only kindness. Focus on helping in Texas, even before the financial markets. Go to Texas. Fix things! Be the hope you talk about! Be the change you promise! Start your presidency of hope and kindness and fairness today. Lead us now! Inspire us again. We need you.