Posts with the tag gallup

The Billion Dollar Obama Holiday Present.

C Dornfeld — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 11:11:42 EST

Listening to NPR the other day there was a passing comment regarding the relationship of the US economy to consumer confidence – about 2/3 of the US economy is directly connected to consumer spending. Not news in itself but with confidence in Bush at an all time low what could be the potential economic impact of Obama just winning the election. Some of the data is pretty surprising.

According to recent survey by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs, 8% of respondents said they are likely to increase holiday spending because of the election of Sen. Obama. Although it does not say how much the spending is likely to improve, a little back-of-the-napkin math can help put this into perspective.

In the 2007 there was about $70b in holiday spending and according to Mastercard about 40% ($28b) was spent online. If 8% of people spent just 5% more that translates into an additional $280m. If it is more like 8% of people spending 25% more the number jumps to $1.4b, or an overall increase of 2%.

Another survey by the National Retail Federation projects that 2008 holiday spending will increase 1.9 percent over 2007 spending. In a nutshell, Obama could provide a lift in Holiday shopping that could double the expected growth in 2008 spending.

Even more impressive is the overall potential impact on the US and the global economy. Gallup daily tracking poll of consumer confidence in the US has shown a 9 point drop (80 to 71) in the people who view the economic outlook as “negative” just over the last week. Not significant? The negative score has not been at 71 since February.

Maybe the best economic stimulus was just passed by the American voter?

Are Polls Biased in Favor of GOP?

C Dornfeld — Tue, 09 Sep 2008 22:09:41 EDT

According to a very interesting and well researched article by Seth Colter Walls the short answer is YES. Polling does not sample recently registered voters and typically the reach out to equal numbers of democrats and republicans causing data to be skewed because there are about eleven million more registered democrats in the United States.

Obama Above 50% for First Time

C Dornfeld — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 22:50:17 EDT

Between hurricanes in the gulf and Palin’s constant stream of new disclosures, most have missed that for the first time 50% of voters polled by Gallup are now saying they will vote for Obama.

PRINCETON, NJ — Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.

It will be interesting to watch the impact of the GOP convention and all of the Palin news over the next few days to see if the positive trend for Obama is reversed. Clearly the initial Palin impact is not positive for the McCain ticket.

GALLUP DAILY: Obama Hits 50% and Leads McCain by Eight Points

Deborah Simmel — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 14:22:46 EDT

Lyndia Saad reports for Gallup.com:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.

Prior to now, no more than 49% of registered voters supported Obama for president in Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Still, Obama's eight percentage point lead over McCain in the new poll falls one point shy of the lead he attained in late July after returning from a well-publicized trip to Europe and parts of the Middle East. At that time, Obama led by nine points, 49% to 40%.

McCain's 42% support is well below his 48% top support level, recorded in late April/early May. It is just slightly better than the 40% he received at several points in July, and the 41% favoring him just last week while the Democratic National Convention was underway. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

At 8%, the percentage of undecided voters is slightly lower than the 9% to 11% figures seen for most of August, and this is the lowest this figure has been since early June. This, in part, reflects movement of voters toward Obama over the course of the Democratic National Convention, a lead which has been sustained in subsequent days.

The field period for today's results includes Monday (Labor Day), when the scaled down Republican National Convention received limited media attention while most news coverage either focused on the hurricane hitting parts of the Gulf Coast or Monday's surprise announcement that the 17-year-old daughter of the soon to be Republican vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, is pregnant. The Republicans hope to start up a more traditional convention schedule today in St. Paul, with the goal of capturing the same kind of media and public attention the Democrats did last week in Denver. -- Lydia Saad

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx

Daily Gallup Tracking

Michael Wells — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:27:35 EDT

Nice to see the bump from the most recent Daily Tracking poll by Gallup.

Gallup Daily: Obama Moves Ahead, 48% to 42%

Couple of thoughts on Last two nights:

Hillary speech was an A
Mark Warner speech a B+
Bill Clinton A+
John Kerry (where the hell was this speech and tone in 2004?) B
Joe Biden A- (good content - good delivery, not enough)

The GOP campaign is negative and as much as I had to say this, it's time to play their game.

Toughen Up!!

TMac79 — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 17:29:54 EDT

While the Republican attack machine heats up, our campaign continues to hide in the background. I can't understand why we are not responding stronger in the media. Our campaign to often allowed Billary to drive the media news agenda and now we are allowing the Republicans to drive the news cycle again. The McCain camp puts out negative attack ad after negative attack this week and I haven't seen one solid response from the Obama camp. This is disturbing to me. Why aren't we seeing some responses. Barack your media team needs to be putting commercials out to combat these negative attacks and you need to get BACK ON MESSAGE. This campaign is slipping away and I think you need to REACT STRONGER!!

Another thing I want to discuss is that all you can see is how the Gallup tracking poll keeps showing that Obama has lost his lead. My question is who the hell is Gallup calling. I have been a registered voter for 14 years. I have had the same phone number since the 2004 disaster of an election and I even went on Gallup'w website and registered with all of my info. Still I have not gotten one polling phone call or email from Gallup. Makes me wonder who the hell are they polling??

From MSNBC First Read

Beth from ColoradObama — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:48:57 EDT

Political Polling: consider your sources...

McCain's Economy Adviser Admits Wrong About Obama; Outlier Poll Shows McCain Up

jgabriel — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 16:18:22 EDT

Here is Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's chief economic policy adviser. "I used to say that Barack Obama raises taxes and John McCain cuts them, and I was convinced," he told me in a phone interview this week. "I stand corrected." - http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/07/i_stand_corrected.html

There's also this really odd USA Today/Gallup poll that shockingly, shows McCain ahead of Obama, 49 to 45. Hopefully this is an outlier, but it means we have more work to do. http://thepage.time.com/2008/07/28/gallup-ing-shocker/

Obama Expands Gallup Lead to 49%-40%; McCain Attempts to Backpedal From Endorsement of Obama's Timetable

jgabriel — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 21:58:22 EDT

First, a nice article from the NY Times, "How Obama Became Acting President":
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/opinion/27rich.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin

Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican from Nebraska, denounced McCain's recent attacks (including "Obama would rather lose a war than a political campaign") as "treading on very thin ground." http://thepage.time.com/transcript-excerpt-from-face-the-nation/

McCain seemed to give an endorsement to Obama's 16 month timetable for Iraq, feeling pressure from the Maliki government and from Bush. Then, on 'This Week with George Stephanopoulos", he appeared to try to furiously backpedal. He's even tried to say that Obama is the one who is flip-flopping to HIS position.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/us/26mccain.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
http://thepage.time.com/transcript-of-mccain-on-this-week-2/

Obama now pivots to the economy this week, which he alluded to during a speech to minority journalists in Chicago today (McCain was also invited, but declined).
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/27/AR2008072701446.html

McCain, more and more, seems to look like an angry old man. He has a history of letting things get under his skin - do we need that kind of person inhabiting the White House?

Gallup Daily: Obama Retains Lead, 48%-41%

jgabriel — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 23:14:37 EDT

Good news for Obama fans. Let's keep up the good work!

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109099/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Retains-Lead-48-41.aspx

Gallup poll

Nick Winlund — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 14:47:20 EDT

Gallup poll link plus story below this personal comment and extra link:

One national demographic that should be underscored more before the final round
in November are the independents and white male voters, not at the cost of all
other voter demographics though.. It is interesting to note the number of Obama
campaign offices opening up in traditional Republican counties. This particular
survey may shed some light on that phenomenon which has implications for long
term political shifts within a party's formation and ranks. I leave with a
excerpt from the NYTimes David Brooks from April:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/opinion/29brooks.html?hp

" In state after state ( Wisconsin being the outlier ), Barack Obama has won
densely populated, well-educated areas. Hillary Clinton has won less-populated,
less-educated areas. For example, Obama has won roughly 70 percent of the
most-educated counties in the primary states. Clinton has won 90 percent of the
least-educated counties. In state after state, Obama has won a few urban and inner-ring suburban counties. Clinton has won nearly
everywhere else. "

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109036/Obama-Gains-Over-McCain-Swing-States-Since-Jun
e.aspx

Obama Gains Over McCain in Swing States Since June
Gap has moved at least 3 points in his favor - By Jeffrey M. Jones

PRINCETON, NJ -- Since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and moved
into a front-running position for the general presidential election in early
June, he has seen his standing versus John McCain improve among voters in red
states, blue states, and competitive (or purple) states. Obama has gained at
least 3 points in the Obama-McCain gap in all three state groupings compared
with voter sentiments in March through May.

Prior to Obama's securing the Democratic nomination in early June, he and McCain
were running even nationally, with each averaging 45% of the total vote in
Gallup Poll Daily tracking from March through May. Since then, Obama has gained
a slight upper hand, averaging a 3 percentage-point national advantage over McCain (46% to 43%) in June and July.

These results are based on data from tens of thousands of interviews with
registered voters in all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, so the changes
-- despite their relatively small size -- are statistically meaningful.

Obama's gains have come across the political and geographic spectrum, as he has
improved his relative positioning versus McCain in "red states" (defined as
those Republican George W. Bush won by 6 percentage points or more in 2004),
"blue states" (those Democrat John Kerry won by 6 percentage points or more in
2004), and "purple states" (those in which the margin of victory for the winning
candidate was less than 6 points).

While Obama has gained slightly in each of these state groupings, he has gained
somewhat more in the most competitive states, seeing his lead expand in these by
6 points, as opposed to 3-point gains in the Obama-McCain gap in red and blue
states. Since early June, he has averaged a 16-point lead over McCain in blue states and an 8-point lead in
purple states, while trailing McCain by an average of 10 points in red states
(McCain trails by only 3 points overall given the greater number of voters in
red states).

Gallup Poll: Americans Worry McCain Too Similar to Bush

jgabriel — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:29:09 EDT

Gallup's latest polling has some interesting nuggets. Take a look: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108490/Americans-Worry-McCain-Would-Too-Similar-Bush.aspx

Encouraging Gallup Poll

Mike Mikolajczyk — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:03:13 EDT

In the past week or so since Senator Clinton decided to formally concede her campaign and encouraged her supporters to back Senator Obama in his, it seems that her followers have wisely obeyed her request, according to the latest Gallup poll, conducted from June 5th-9th.

Obama Has a 16-Point Lead Over Clinton

Carole@www.Americans-Away-From-Home.com — Mon, 19 May 2008 18:38:15 EDT

Barack Obama has a 55% to 39% lead over Hillary Clinton in a new Gallup Poll.

O-Lead to 9% on Gallup & Flight to Peace

ZapDuff — Sat, 17 May 2008 17:24:52 EDT

The hits keep coming!

What a week! The Edwards endorsement... and now a 9-point lead in the Gallup Daily Tracking! Gallup Daily: Obama Opens 51/42 Lead But look at the Obama/McBush survey... we need to work on improving these numbers folks.

TV Off/Add CNN to List of Unwatched

ZapDuff — Sun, 04 May 2008 13:23:54 EDT

My wife just came into my office, wrestled away my clicker from my hands, and turned off my TV. She's concerned, especially after my previous fits during Meet The Press, about my screaming at Wolf Blitzer who has turned his channel into the Clinton News Network.

Gallup: Obama leads Clinton; electability issue NIL

Meredith — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 05:43:39 EDT

Gallup Poll today:

[boldface highlights by MW]

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in national Democratic preferences for the nomination, 50% to 42%, in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from April 20-22...With Obama currently leading Clinton nationally by eight points, it appears Pennsylvania is not a Democratic bellweather state.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106765/Gallup-Daily-Obama-50-Clinton-42-Nationally.aspx

Electability

Much of Clinton's current campaign positioning is based on her claim that she is more electable against John McCain next November. Analysis of Gallup data, however, does not find empirical justification for this claim at this point. In head-to-head matchups against presumptive Republican nominee McCain, Clinton and Obama perform almost exactly the same.

In Gallup's latest tracking of the general election, based on interviewing conducted April 18-22, McCain has a one-point lead over both Clinton and Obama. In the April 18-20 USA Today/Gallup poll, both Clinton and Obama were slightly -- but almost identically -- ahead of McCain among likely voters.

In neither instance is there any meaningful difference in how the two candidates stack up against McCain.

Clinton has argued that her wins in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio underscore her ability to win possible swing states in the general election next November. But a recent Gallup analysis of the vote patterns in states that were competitive in the 2004 election shows that Obama and Clinton perform exactly the same when paired against McCain in these swing states -- again giving no indication that either of the two Democratic candidates at this point is more "electable" than the other.

Furthermore, in that analysis, Obama did slightly better versus McCain than Clinton did in both reliably Democratic and reliably Republican states.

The demographic coalitions of support put together by the two candidates appear firmly in place by this point in the campaign, and it's likely that the winners in the states to come will be determined more by the composition of the population in those states than by any result of campaigning. At the same time, Clinton's argument that she is more electable in the fall does not appear at this juncture to have support in national data; both she and Obama fare equally well when pitted in polling against McCain.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106774/Day-After-Pennsylvania-Primary.aspx

Bush has highest disapproval rating of any President EVER

Meredith — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 05:35:09 EDT

Just for the record:

Disapproval of George W. Bush set an all-time record for any President in the history of Gallup Polls:

PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's disapproval rating is at 69% -- which is not only the highest of the Bush administration, but the highest disapproval rating in Gallup Poll history.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106741/Bushs-69-Job-Disapproval-Rating-Highest-Gallup-History.aspx

Gallup Poll Update-Senator Obama's lead widens!

Denise from Medford — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 13:19:56 EDT

Hello!

Well, MSNBC just announced the latest Gallup Poll results: Obama 52%-Clinton 43%!!! If you check out the blog I posted on 4/5, you will see that in just two days Senator Obama's lead is up three points!!! HRC's rating has dropped a point. There is now a 9% difference!!! AWESOME!!!

52%!!!

Virginia S. — Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:04:51 EDT

That's where Sen. Obama stands in the Gallup polls now. It's the highest he's ever been, and it's the largest margin that he's ever held over her! AWESOME!

Obama '08!

Electability Results

Bill Sheets — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 16:47:29 EST

Hello fellow Obama Supporters,

A new USA Today/Gallup Poll released today shows some very promising signs of our possible victory for Senator Obama as the Democratic Nominee.

1. 7 of 10 of the democrats polled responded that Senator Obama was the likely nominee.

2. Independents that are leaning towards the democratic side say 2 to 1 that Senator Obama is the better chance to beat Senator McCain in November.

3. Republicans by a 3 to 1 margin say John McCain has a better chance to beat Senator Clinton than that of Senator Obama.

4. Among Democrats Senator Obama head-to-head with Senator Clinton has for the first time surpassed 50% by beating Senator Clinton 51% to 39%.

5. Senator Obama leads Senator McCain 49% to 45% while Senator Clinton trails Senator McCain 49% to 47%.

However this is by far over so do not let up, just be aware that your hard work could be paying off as we all desired it to.

YES WE CAN!

Obama Ahead in National Polls for First Time

C Dornfeld — Sat, 16 Feb 2008 10:34:01 EST

For the first time since Gallup began its daily poll of Presidential nominees, Barack Obama has taken the lead as the front-runner for the democratic presidential nomination. Since Iowa as voters across the United States have become more familiar with Obama he has continued to improve his popularity - climbing over 15% in the polls while Hillary Clinton has remained relatively flat.

Poll Graph

Gallup Poll Shows Obama Gaining Fast

C Dornfeld — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 20:36:34 EST

The most recent data from Gallup shows that Barack Obama is gaining ground on Hillary Clinton nationally. Obama continues to climb after the crushing win in South Carolina and the numerous endorsements, including Sen. Ted Kennedy.

(Graph of Gallup Poll)

Now within 6 percentage points of Hillary (according to Gallup) the next few days will be very interesting as the polls will begin to reflect the change caused by Edwards leaving the race.

Over the last week Obama has gained 1% a day on average in the poll - if the trend continues he will eclipse Hillary in the next three to five days. One of the key factors in the race could be the next debate scheduled for Thursday evening between Obama and Clinton.

Obama is scheduled to visit St. Louis on Saturday around 9pm at a location TBD.