“The Uncabinet. A guide to key appointments Obama should resist”, was the title of a column by Timothy Noah in today’s Slate. I sent him the following email.
Subject: My predictions for the Cabinet, off the top of my head
State: Richard Holbrooke
Defense: Wesley Clark
AG: Hillary Clinton
Treasury: Hank Paulson (for a short term)
Energy: Al Gore
Education: Henry Gates, Jr.
HHS; Donna Shalala
Transportation: Harold Ford, Jr.
UN Ambassador: Bill Clinton
HUD Jesse Jackson, Jr.
EPA: David Axelrod
Commerce: John McCain
National Security Adviser: Colin Powell
Homeland Security: Joe Lieberman
(end of e-mail)
I didn’t have an Hispanic or an Asian. How about Bill Richardson for International Trade Rep and Tammy Duckworth for Veterans Affairs.
I forgot Labor and Social Security. How about John Sweeney and Robert Reich, respectively.
This is mostly wishful thinking on my part, but you’ve got to admit, it would be a diverse and colorful Cabinet!
so here we are: one day remaining. doesn't seem too long ago that i kept catching glimpses of this obama fellow in 2007 and thought how wonderful would it be... never expecting him to come this far up against edwards and clinton. as i have said before, from a marketing perspective, gaining a significant share of the market (in this case: eligible voters) is complicated in today's environment. any start-up firm would be hard pressed to snatch away a significant portion of p&g or coca cola customers. that same start-up firm would exemplify modern brilliance should it manage to overtake the market and gain control for any period of time. that is, in essence, what obama did in 2008. i recognized his potential. i praised his marketing campaign. yet, until super tuesday, i remained unconvinced that obama would succeed at becoming the nominee and beat the two well-established brands of edwards and clinton. once we knew obama was our nominee, i often joked that the only way mccain stood a chance against obama was by selecting a female running mate. i certainly did not mean "that one." when mccain announced palin in dayton, i first cringed. then i googled her investigation to confirm that she had been exhonerated. to my surprise, his popular governor from alaska was still under investigation for abuse of power and likely guilty as hell. was the crime all that bad? not really. yet, just as getting a blow job or sticking a cigar in your chubby aide's kootch is not that bad... when you lie repeatedly and attempt to disguise your blunder... that is often far worse than the original crime. what people i have met and people like palin do not seem to understand, many of us are forgiving of a mistake or two... just not the pattern of lies or unfaithfulness that accompanies deception. its the compulsiveness, the ease, and the noticeable pattern that deteriorates and ultimately destroys trust.needless to say, prior to the veep picks, i began imagining an electoral map in 2008 that mimics the map ross perot carved out for bill clinton in 1992. while initially i was nervous to see what became of clinton's stalwart supporters of which,in exit polls, many had proudly proclaimed gender as major factor in their support. however, with time, palin did backfire in the sense that she was ineffective at luring independents and former clinton voters. arguably, i assert that palin has been effective in igniting the base to match the sweat behind obama. only tomorrow will we know whether the fire palin lit in the far right-wing nuts of our country is burning strong or whether it turns out to be like a rash between your legs after a good date gone bad.to refresh your memory, review the electoral map in 1992 where clinton pulled out a huge upset against the incumbent thanks to ross perot who remains the only successful third party candidate in modern elections.
first states i would point our are louisiana, kentucky, and tennessee. i knew this summer that those states were outside the realm of possibility. in fact, tennessee turned against gore in 2000 largely due to his environmental convictions. given that bobby jindal is about as far too the right as sarah palin, i assumed louisiana was also outside the realm of possibility despite the outcome in the primary in obama's favor. and kentucky... well that ole kentucky home is a thorn in my side, but i will defend her natural beauty until my dying day... just not the folks' politics. ross perot's impressive 18% popular vote splintered the would-be republican votes and carved out a victory for bill clinton in additional states that stay with mccain: arkansas, montana, and west virgnina. while its true that mccain's lead in arkansas is presently only in single digits, i was always hopeful that with help from bill and hillary, obama would remain more competitive as far south as arkansas. like kentucky, west virginia seems to be very confused as to who has their best interest at heart. and, i might as well say it within this blog since i had to slam a door on my fingers a few weeks ago when i thought about writing a blog strictly targeting the separation of church and state. for those of you who forgot, we are suppose to acknowledge a separation of church and state! separation of church and state is among the founding principles of the united states of america. heads up people! when we fail to pratice our civil duties and vote for the best qualified leader to restore economic and foriegn matters because we want a candidate that agrees with the majority of our religious doctrine... hello... that is how you end up with george w. bush twice and the deteriorated condition of our country today. vote for the best candidate. don't vote based on religious convictions. if we transfer our country's power and wealth to china, russia. or the middle east... you may not have always have the freedom to practice that religion you love so much and wanted to shove down my throat. obama appears to be strongly competing to win with an electoral map much like bill clinton's first win. the difference, and what makes this especially remarkable, obama will accomplish this without a strong third party candidate which means he is winning with a more united country and a greater percentage or the popular vote. a percentage not seen since the eighties. obama's net reduction would be 39 electoral votes after losing these five states which is still enough to make him the victor tomorrow. however, obama will likely and hopefully pick up states that even bill clinton could not win in 1992. according to new sources such as real clear politics, abc and msnbc news, toss up states include: montana, indiana, missouri, north carolina, ohio, georgia, virginia, and florida. the other three that are sometimes considered a toss-up are: nevada, north dakota, and arizona. however, i am relatively confident that nevada will break for obama and north dakota and arizona will break for mccain... albiet narrow victories no matter what the outcome. with that said, my electoral predicions for tomorrow night:
given the nature of a predicion, i have to make a few tough calls and my map is admitedly optimistic in the sense that i really want obama to win in north carolina and georgia and prevent mccain from narrowly squeaking by him. since the beginning of the summer, i have envisioned a 1992 map where obama gave up four or five states and replaced them florida, virginia, and georgia which is a net 51 electoral votes. the end result would be a few less states, but a greater electoral and popular vote win on election day for barack. based on a series of recent polls and early voting results, i feel good about viginia and florida. i may still be overly optimistic about georgia, but it now looks like obama has an equally optimistic chance in north carolina so i moved both to obama's column. if you read my earlier blog during the primaries, i liked to mention obama's performance in north and south carolina. he alone, had more votes cast for him than mccain and his republican counterparts combined. early voting and polls show the margin in the general election tight in south carolina while virtually tied and potentially leaning to obama in north carolina. amazing! as for georgia, a relatively strong third party candidate in georgia, bob barr, could "help" tip that state to obama like ross perot did in 1992. barr polled around 8% this spring, but third party candidates generally poll better early than the final outcome because more and more voters fold into the two major parties. presently, "other" in georgia is at 4% and bob barr, a georgian, is believed to compose the majority of that 4% or better... as he has been gaining in the polls this last few weeks by picking up undecided georgia independents.last week's cnn/time poll revealed that among "likely" georgia voters — presumably those who are both registered and have a proven track record of participating in elections, the race breaks down as follows: mccain: 50%, obama: 46%, barr: 3%
however, if the pool of voters is widened to include simply registered voters — which would include first-time voters or those who rarely participate in general elections — then the georgia vote shifts in obama's favor: mccain: 46%, obama: 49%, barr: 4%
so there you have it, i was dissappointed when the obama for america campaign shifted resourced from georgia last month, but happy to hear that more than half of registered voters have voted early thought to benefit obama. i was also happy when obama shifted resources back to georgia last week and may help see my wish to fruition.
what of my other swing state calls? montana is close. originally, that state looked good for obama, but slipped back to mccain after the palin pick. perhaps montana is the one state that palin helps mccain win. yet, we are squabbling over three electoral votes and i my calculations are that obama will succeed with or without montana. i call montana for mccain because the last month's series of polls generally have mccain leading in spite of that gap closing and now close. the same is true of arizona. i was in arizona in may. i kept asking people i met, and i gathered that if mccain was not from arizona, the state would go blue. yet, i see arizona staying narrowly red. meanwhile, long before the pundits and major shift in the polls, i have felt confident that obama would perform better in florida than ohio which was not the case for bill clinton in 1992. however, like nevada, florida's economy is hurting and unlike mccain who hosted a convention centered around terrorism... i have long thought the economy is the greatest security risk facing our country. i trust that florida agrees and i will take back every sand bar comment i've made since 2000.
ultimately, i call ohio for obama... but i predict ohio to be too close to call until after the west coast polls are closed. additionally, for the same reason i foresee ohio ending close, i also see indiana close. however, i see indiana narrowly red for mccain. unlike missiouri, indiana's popular senator is somewhat a bore and moderate. indiana reminds me of northern kentucky democrats. in order to win, you have to market yourself as a virtual republican. with that said and given that indiana did not break for clinton with perot's help, i call indiana for mccain and i call missiouri for obama... home of the likable, well-known, and early obama activist, senator claire mccaskill. if she ran for governor first, she could be president in 2016, eh?
end game: obama with 379 electoral votes. the greatest victory since the eighties. and incidentally, i alway hinted he would prove to be our next great american president. finally, i win a contest... by virtue of association or vicariously or something like that.
PRESIDENT:
You have heard it ad naseum for almost a year and a half that this election is important. Well, damnit, it is the most important election of our lifetime. We live in a tumultuous time, but our nation is still the greatest on earth. We have the strongest economy, strongest military and most innovative and creative citizens. We are a compassionate and practical people. We have our faults, but I am proud to be an American. Regardless of who wins or loses I will support them as President but on the flipside of that token I also retain my right to either man if I feel they are wrong on an issue. Dissent is a sacred right that we should all be more willing to exercise.
Now getting down to business, we have two very different candidates with very contrasting styles and views on how the country should be governed. When voting for President I consider three leadership qualities- intelligence, temperament and political philosophy. Barack Obama is superior in all three areas from my point of view. He is one of the most intelligent candidates we have ever had for President. Obama not only excels at understanding the issues that face the country but he understands what needs to be done in order to put our country back on track. McCain has failed to lay out his vision in this election and instead chose to make his campaign about being anti Obama.
Also, Obama is an intellectual. He is, in many respects, a post modern thinker. He understands that the world is not divided in terms of black and white or good and evil but that we live in many shades of gray. This realization allows him to consider multiple options as opposed to the simplistic nature of someone like President Bush, who appears to make decisions based on an absolutist philosophy that it is either my way or the highway. Bush prematurely follows one course in his mind and sticks to that decision regardless of whether or not it is working out. I think Obama will reflect on his decisions and if something appears to not be working out as previously planned, he will adjust accordingly.
McCain, on the other hand, is unlike either Bush or Obama. Where Obama is reflective and Bush is simplistic, McCain is a reactionary and extremely erratic. His enemies in the GOP have criticized him for this behavior for years. McCain is unpredictable and his positions do not always coincide intellectually with his other positions. In fact, McCain often makes illogical decisions out of anger. For example, McCain came out against the first Bush tax cuts because he said, and correctly so, that they moved the country’s tax burden from the upper class to the middle class. Sounds right, except McCain has always stated he believed in the fundamentals of trickle-down economics, which these Bush tax cuts were implementing. Basically, McCain was still pissed after his loss to Bush in the 2000 primary so he made a decision not based on what he thought but out of vengeance. McCain now supports Bush economic policies that he supported before he was pissed off and didn’t support. Basically, he was wrong before he was right but now he is wrong again.
In terms of temperament, Obama is far the better choice to lead our great nation. Obama has discipline, focus and is steady under pressure. This has been strikingly clear in the campaign. Whereas the McCain campaign has jumped from one theme to another, Obama has consistently delivered his policy positions and contrasted himself with McCain by showing that McCain will only continue Bush policies. You may not agree with either, but you have to admit it that Obama rarely strayed off message.
McCain first made his campaign about his biography. When he realized that he was becoming Bob Dole of 1996 he changed his theme to that of experience. Then he chose an inexperienced running mate so he had to make his campaign about change (the maverick’s mavericky maverick). Once it was obvious that the change mantle couldn’t be wrestled from Obama, McCain made his campaign about attacking Obama’s character. Once the voters responded negatively to that, he made his campaign about Democratic policies, which he calls socialism. McCain’s lack of discipline was only outpaced by his anger. As I mentioned above, McCain lurches from position to position when he is pissed and he gets pissed a lot. All of this makes for a bad leader and a poorly managed campaign.
Contrasted with McCain’s hot temper has been Obama’s calm demeanor. As nasty as the attacks against him have been in this campaign, Obama has been able to remain focused on the task at hand and had the uncanny ability to emotionally brush off the most egregious of attacks. That does not mean Obama does not respond to attacks, he has been as good as Bill Clinton in terms of counter punching, but he has done so with a grace that makes him appear above the political fray. Obama does not lurch from one position to the other like John McCain- Obama thoughtfully approaches each task and carefully constructs the appropriate response- kind of like you would want a President to do.
Finally, I support Obama because he shares my political philosophies. Obama feels that the middle class is the driving force that makes our country great and wants to make sure middle class Americans pay LESS TAXES, have health care and are protected from foreign threats. Obama also recognizes the importance of making college affordable so that our nation can remain economically and intellectually competitive. In addition, Obama will address our nation’s dependence on outdated modes of energy. Fossil fuels are a way of the past and if our country is going to remain self sufficient then we must invest in renewable energy sources like wind, solar, hydro and geothermal. Obama realizes that we cannot achieve this over night so his plan also has a contingency to bridge us to this clean and energy efficient future- he will permit environmentally safe domestic drilling, force oil and gas companies to use their millions of acres of federally leased land and common sense exploration of nuclear power options.
PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTION
This has been one hell of a long election but I do not think election night will be long. I predict Obama will blow John McCain out next Tuesday and he will do so early. Obama will get 338 electoral votes with wins in states like Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa. We will all know that the results in the West are irrelevant after we get the results from Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida. I think McCain will get 200 electoral votes with close wins in North Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia to name just a few.
Even if McCain were able to close the gap and win in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia he would still not have 270. If McCain somehow pulled those early upsets, he would still need to come from behind in both Nevada and New Mexico or Colorado and one of those two. If McCain did manage to close the gap in the polls in the last few days he would still be up shits creek because he has been getting trounced by Obama’s far superior ground game in early voting states. McCain also lacks the election day get out the vote grassroots to get lukewarm supporters to the polls. McCain is simply too far behind. I will not go to bed Tuesday night until I know Obama has won this election but I have a feeling that I will be well rested come Wednesday morning.
If you want to play with the electoral map and see for yourself then I recommend you go to Politico’s electoral polling map to get a read on where states currently stand and then go to a really interesting interactive map I found on the net.
Politico- http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html
Interactive Map- http://www.270towin.com/
Phil Noble, the publisher of PoliticsOnline, predicts Obama wins in a landslide -- and more.
OSCAR HORTON’S PROPHECY (1890 - 1993)
Oscar Horton my father who died in 1993, made a prophecy that led me to work as a volunteer in Tennessee, Ohio, and Kentucky for Senator Barack Obama’s Presidential Candidacy. This prophecy was made during the 1938 Election year. The Presidential race was between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Thomas E. Dewey.
After a long day of work in the cotton fields had ended, we were on the porch shelling corn to be ground into cornmeal, as we listened carefully to the campaign speeches coming over the airwaves by radio.
Daddy, it sure looks as if the time is now! There is a Black candidate running in this 2008 election year. These are some of his characteristics that qualify him as a “good man”. He was born to a Black father and a White mother; he is a husband, father, and a Christian. He possesses a brilliant mind, and excelled at Harvard School of Law; he is an accomplished Senator of Illinois; he is young, strong, and filled with stamina, enthusiasm, discipline, tolerance; and above all, he loves and respects his Country - The United States of America.
Dad, if you were living today, you would say that Barack Obama is a good man, and this is a great country. You would probably say these words: “I have taught you children to be far sighted, to recognize changes for the good. It appears that the time has come to put the ugliness, bitterness, contempt, and indifference of segregation of the past far behind us and press forward in unity for the mark of the High calling. In the interest of national security, peaceful co-existence between all people, for restoration of pride, dignity, and respect, it behooves all Americans to comprehend what change is comprised of.”
We are such A Blessed Nation to have been given a Barack Obama!
Written by: Ratchel R. Motley, Paducah, KY
P.S.-Well so much for this campaign being 'only' about the new young voter. BARACK ON....regardless what your age is....(smile).
Well, I had guessed at +6 Clinton for IN and I stand by it. BUT I don't think the worst case for him is much worse than that -- I have been a little bit conservative and there are 3 or 4 districts that could easily flip netting +2 Obama each. District by distrcit below...
There are 2 sets of delegates determined by the overall popular vote. One is an even number (16) and I think the count will be close enough that they'll split these 8/8. The other is 9 delegates and I'm giving Clinton the extra 1. But watch for a high turnout in districts 1 & 7 (Obama's strongholds) to swing that one the other way (I think it's a long shot, but we've all been calling our hearts out, so maybe!!)
As I said yesterday, with any luck I'll be liveblogging the results -> delegate allocations tomorrow night.
My original seat-of-the-pants prediction for NC had us at +18. My latest is a little more conservative at +15. This is 44-33 for the direct congressional district allocations and 21-17 for the PLEO/at-large numbers. It means an additional 65 delegates, bringing the number left to the nomination to just over 200... and that's not inlcuding Indiana.
For anyone interested, the breakdown is below. I have to hit the sack but hope to do predictions for Indiana tomorrow. Tuesday night I'll either update in the main threads or here, depending how things go, who's interested, etc.
As posted to my local legislative district Obama group this morning:
I think the do-overs in Michigan and Florida will probably happen, one way or another. As close as this election is, it's the right thing to do - though I don't believe the DNC should be footing the bill since that would imply that the DNC does not have the right to enforce its own rules without paying a stiff fine. On the other hand, the one thing we can't afford is for Democrats in two swing states to feel that they were disenfranchised by the party.
My guess is that Obama will win Michigan (narrowly if it's a primary and by a wide margin if it's a caucus), and Clinton will take Florida. Despite news articles and political pundits ominously suggesting that these elections "could determine the nominee", I don't foresee Clinton gaining enough pledged delegates from these contests to overcome Obama's lead.
Predicting Tuesday’s results is difficult, the polls show dead heats and one even shows Obama ahead in both Ohio and Texas now. Rhode Island hasn’t had reliable polling and in this election one can argue that the polling has not been all that reliable anyway. Too many new voters, too many independents and republicans crossing over make it hard to predict.
But here goes.
Senator Obama takes the popular vote in Texas by 5 percent tomorrow and wins the caucuses by 9 percent, winning more delegates. No one will be sure of the delegate numbers, even though they will project (caucus delegates are not actually assigned until later.) All they will know is he won popular and delegate.
In Ohio she wins by 2 percent but the delegate count is close, she ends up 2-5 more than him.
He handily wins Vermont by 18 points gaining 2-4 more delegates than her.
She barely wins Rhode Island and gains a +1 delegate.
Overall results. He wins more delegates and slightly more of the overall popular vote. She wins Ohio and Rhode Island and plays the Obama buyers remorse card heavily to continue in the race even though winning now becomes mathematically impossible for her unless she gets most super delegates to switch to her, somehow seats Florida and Michigan as they are and also wins all remaining contests by 68-70%.
She still won’t quit. Someone will have to talk to her. Perhaps the super delegates will step in, perhaps she will hold off the party until after Pennsylvania. Either way, she will try to hold on. Obama will win it eventually but it will be a long slow slog that will continue to divide the Democratic party until either the voters or the party ends this.
I hope I am wrong and this movement wins all 4 contests on Tuesday and puts this to bed once and for all.
As i continue to search the Internet for any predictions on the outcomes of the primaries that are going to take place in two weeks time in Ohio and Texas, one tid bit of information has caught my eye. CNN has stated that Wisconsin and Ohio are very similar politically and share very much the same demographics as Ohio. Does this mean that Obama will trump Clinton in this comming primary or will it be a closer race. Thoughts? Opinions? and little gems of wisdom to share with me?
