Organizing for America | Posts with the tag Prediction

Posts with the tag Prediction

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By JIAN from Grand Rapids, MI - Dec 15th, 2008 at 8:17 am EST

Hello, Steve. We bless your family and Obama's family in Christmas Day.
s
I'm busy for studying now.

YunFeng let me transmit his words,"the prediction of this year's winter is a present!
I left voice message in your mail box in Nov
He is unable to predict any stuff next yearin website and unable to free to friends.
YunFeng is only one can save Obama.
The weather disaster is big problem, the weather expert of UN also ask for his prediction.
However, he didn't respect us and we didn't give prediction to him.

Offend others is ok but YunFeng.
Some of people have attemped consequence.
YunFeng's prediction is highest and most invaluable and ultramodern science and Comprehensive Science.
He predicts China and the whole world.
The prediction price is 30 million dollars point top 500 companies in the world.
No matter which degree goverment must own us and respect us.

Post on Dec 15

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Election Predictions and last thoughts before the big day

By Adam - Nov 3rd, 2008 at 8:45 pm EST

This has been a long 2 years, but election day is nearly upon us. Let’s start with the easy states:

In the bank for McCain— Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. These states total: 142 ev’s for McCain. The only (remote) upset possibilities here are Arizona where polling is within the margin of error in the last few days, one of the congressional districts in Nebraska (Nebraska is one of two states that actually split their EV’s by district, and Obama has a shot at winning 1 of those), and Louisiana where African-american turn-out is unknowable because it depends on evacuees returning to vote. The early vote numbers look better there than expected for Obama, but I’m still putting this one in the safe McCain column. West Virginia looked like an option earlier, but they lost ground after Obama and Biden campaigned there. In summary, going into election day, I think McCain has 142 EV’s in the bank.

In the bank for Obama—California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. These states total 227 EV’s for Obama. Remote possibilities for a McCain upset are Michigan and Wisconsin, although it’s almost impossible to realistically consider either of those since McCain and the RNC pulled out of both weeks ago.

With 270 needed to win, I believe the race sits at 227-142 when looking at just the rock solid states. Obviously McCain starts from a tougher position than Obama, but it’s not impossible for McCain to pull it out.

Now for the toss-ups, and I’m listing these on the Strong ObamaàStrong McCain spectrum:

The first 5 I would put in the Likely Obama column: Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Colorado totaling 46 electoral votes. Iowa has been in the bag for Obama for months now, as has New Hampshire. Despite McCain’s efforts there, most polls have both states in double digits. Pennsylvania has been remarkably stable despite the all-out blitz of Palin and McCain of the last 3 weeks. The strategy made sense, but none of the tactics have worked as the race looks to be in the 7-10 point range (should narrow before election day obviously). New Mexico is the second Bush state (after Iowa) that Obama looks poised to pick up easily, primarily on his strength with Latinos (polls have Obama at 2:1 Latino support, so much for the argument during the primaries that hispanic voters would resist supporting an African-american). Colorado had been a battleground up until a few weeks ago, but it looks like Obama has put it away. The state has trended blue recently with a democratic governor and 2 democratic senators, as well as an increasing latino population. McCain basically pulled out of the state 2 weeks ago. Those Likely Obama states total 44 EV’s, and put Obama at 273. Barring an upset in one of these states, with Pennsylvania, because of the resources devoted by McCain and Palin (and some questionable racial attitudes in the western part of the state) and New Hampshire, because of McCain’s history there, being the best two possibilities, this should be enough to give Obama the presidency. The good news for Obama is he has other paths to 270 should Pennsylvania or New Hampshire falter.

The next 2 states I would put in the lean Obama category: Virginia and Nevada totaling 18 EV’s. Virginia has been a target of Obama’s since the primaries, when he overperformed there relative to expectations in February. He has opened a tremendous number of offices here, and with higher than expected turnout among African Americans and northern Virginian (the “fake” Virginia) voters, Virginia should turn blue this year. Obama is helped by a slam dunk for the dems Senate race (Mark Warner) as well as a popular governor (Tim Kaine) who has been working the state hard for him. Nevada is slightly less in the bag, and is probably more of a toss-up state that leans ever so slightly towards Obama. Apparently, the RNC and McCain’s campaign devoted very little resources here, and with a big GOTV operation, this looks like a state Obama should be able to carry, but we probably won’t know these results until late. With those two states for Obama, we’re at 291.

The interesting thing is, if the scenario above holds, he could lose Pennsylvania and still have 270.

The next 5 states are true toss-ups. I don’t think anyone can be certain of who will carry them. I would put Florida a hair closer to Obama, followed by Ohio (right at the 50:50 mark), then North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri. These states total 57 ev’s and McCain can’t lose any of them. Each of them presents an opportunity for both candidates. Florida moved towards Obama after the Palin pick and never moved back. Ohio looks to be dead even, but I think McCain probably has an edge there unless the evangelicals who showed up in huge numbers in 2004 stay home or the voting problems that happened last time disappear in heavily African-american districts. North Carolina should be red unless African-american turnout is overwhelming. Indiana is usually the first state to report results because it’s such a deep shade of red, but Obama has performed better than expected (since it neighbors Illinois). And lastly, Missouri is too close to call. Missouri often votes for the winner overall, and Obama did win the primary here, but I still think it’s a little more likely to go red.

The last three are in the red category, but circumstances in each state could turn them blue—Montana has seen a democratic surge lately with a democratic governor and senator, and the governor is up for reelection and should win big (and Obama is running ads here now); Georgia has seen just ludicrous early voting numbers among democrats and a close senate race, but the state in all likelihood will stay blue, and North Dakota has almost no state GOP structure any more. That, along with same day voter registration, gives a glimmer of hope to the Obama campaign in North Dakota.

So, what do I predict? Obviously, Obama isn’t likely to pull all of these toss-ups into his column, but I do think he will pull a lot. I think 2006 was the beginning of the wave, and this will be the end of it. People forget, but almost no on was forecasting the gains the dems ended up achieving in 2006 (gaining control of the senate, etc).

For comparison:

2004: Bush over Kerry: 286-251; 50.7% to 48.3%
2000: Bush over Gore: 271-266; 47.9% to 48.4%
1996: Clinton over Dole: 379-159; 49.2% to 40,71%
1992: Clinton over Bush: 370-168; 43.0% to 37.7% to 18.9%
1988: Bush over Duke: 426-111; 53.4% to 45.4%
1984: Reagan over Mondale: 525-13; 58.8% to 40.6%
1980: Reagan over Carter: 489-49; 50.7% to 41.0%

You can see how often a race that gets to 5 points or more turns into a landslide.

We should get a good idea of where the race is by 8-9 pm EST. Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and Indiana all close by then (VA is at 7), followed by Ohio and North Carolina at 7:30 PM, and Missouri and Pennsylvania at 8 pm EST. Colorado and New Mexico are closing at 9 pm EST.

The networks will declare a winner if they have enough raw data and the data correlates well with their projection. If the network says “too close to call” it means they don’t know who will win yet. If they say “too early to call” it means they are waiting for confirmatory data to support their projection. It’s a distinction with a difference.

With all of that being said, here’s my best guess after spending entirely too much time on this:

I think we’re going to see 52-47 (ish) popular vote, and electoral vote of around 340-198, with Obama sweeping all the Kerry states (including Pennsylvania), and adding on Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Georgia, and North Dakota should all probably stay red.

I think an Obama win probably has a floor of about 271 and a ceiling of 396. Anyone who predicts above 400 is giving Obama surprise states no one else is seriously considering.

McCain can pull this out, but it really looks like a steep hill to climb for him. If you go back to the 2004 map, keep it at the Kerry-Bush breakdown but move Iowa and New Mexico into the Obama column, and push PA back to McCain. He can do it. Even if you give Obama Colorado, pushing PA red will give it to McCain. If you keep that scenario and give Virginia to Obama, it shifts the winner overall back to Obama. In other words, for McCain to realistically have a shot, he has to hold Virginia and snag Pennsylvania. I don’t see that happening, but that’s been the rationale behind the McCain PA/VA strategy. If Obama picks up Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado and either Virginia or Pennsylvania, it’s basically over, no matter what happens in those other toss-up states.

One other note—I think we’re looking at another 30+ seats in the House (currently 235-199 in favor of the dems), somewhere around 265 dems 169 repubs at the end of the night. In the senate, the dems are going to get very close to 60 seats—they start at 51-49 (including Lieberman and Sanders who are both independents who caucus with the dems). They have easy pick-ups in Virginia (Mark Warner- key note at convention), New Mexico (1 of the 2 Udalls, I can never remember which is which), New Hamsphire (Shaheen ex governor to beat Sununu), Alaska (Begich should beat convicted felon Stevens easily), Colorado (the other Udall). That would get the Dems to 56 seats. 3 other likely pick-ups are Oregon (Merkely), Hagan (should beat Dole after her absurd godless ads—would be the first time a dole or a bush isn’t in office in 50 years!), and Franken who is leading against Coleman and a 3rd party candidate. That gets the dems to 59 seats.

There are three chances for the dems to get one more to hit the magic number of 60—Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. Mississippi looks to be a safe GOP seat now. Kentucky would be interesting because the GOPer there is Mitch McConnell the minority leader who is suddenly in a dead even race. But most interesting is Georgia, where Martin is looking to beat Chambliss. There is a very good chance that neither Martin nor Chambliss will hit 50%, despite the huge African American turnout. If that happens, we’re looking at a run-off in December, possibly for a filibuster proof majority. That election would look like a national general election, exactly what no one (except crazies like me) wants after this interminable season.

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YunFeng's word--Please send word to Mr. Obama

By JIAN from Grand Rapids, MI - Oct 31st, 2008 at 12:14 pm EDT

http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-130768

I uploaded a audio to ireport of CNN. All of you can see!!!

Please send word to Mr. Obama, All of you should keep punching in final several days! We will support him like before. We will "Jia Chi"(加持) for him through our special power! We hope Obama become the president of USA successfully. We hope Obama become president of best and most goodness! We hope Obama solve economy problem leading people of USA successfully. We can help him through our prediction and he can make successful decisions and will use the shortest time to solve this crisis. Let people avoid the great disaster in the world.
请转告奥巴马，在这最后关键的几天需要 487; 493;努力！
我们会像以往一样的支持他！
我们会用我们独有的特殊力量为他加持！
希望奥巴马成功当选 654;国总 479;！
希望奥巴马成为 654;国历史上最好、最善良的总 479;！
希望他能带领 654;国人民成功解决 463;济危机！
我们会用我们的预言帮助他，可以让他成功作出决策，用最短的时间解决此次危机。
让世界各国人民摆脱此次巨大的灾难！

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Obama Wins NC by 500,000 YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST

By Kelly from Raleigh, NC - Oct 24th, 2008 at 3:56 pm EDT

Obama Wins NC by 500,000 Votes 10/22/08 Kelly Bowling

Obama has laid the foundation for electoral victory in NC by focusing on key organizational efforts. First, voter registration efforts have been substantial. The NC State Board of Elections currently shows a Democratic registration advantage of 837,414. As of October 21, the Early Vote effort has been overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats- by about 2 to 1. Finally the voter turnout effort is strong- as evidenced by the Early Vote effort. This is the model that Obama is implementing in key battleground states, and the extent of its success is not reflected in the generic voter preference polling averages.
I have developed a model that combines demographic data from the NC Board of Elections with the results and breakdown of the early vote tally as reported from Oct 16-Oct 21, the first six days early voting. This model allows the user to manipulate key elements of election behavior. First, one can adjust the Election Day turnout percentage for each major party. The second variable is the breakdown of the independent vote for each candidate. Every model operates on a given set of assumptions. My assumptions are:
• The early vote effort will continue consistently at the levels from the first six days, with the overall Democratic advantage maintained at 2 to 1.
• The party registration will reflect the actual vote recorded for either Obama or McCain. Polling shows that a given candidate receives 85-95% or their party's support. For the purposes of this model, I am assuming that a vote remains in line with the party affiliation. Fluctuations in voter loyalty will largely off set, as the net loss and gain works to both sides advantage and disadvantage.
Early voting is an important part of electoral strategy. Among the many revolutionary tactics being tested and implemented by the Obama campaign, early voting is perhaps one of the more important elements of his strategy. One analyst compared early voting to a 100 yard dash. He characterized Democrats as having a 20 yard head start, based on numbers thus far in key battleground states. This is especially true, as the numbers for six days show 481,000 early votes, with 56% being Democratic registrants (as opposed to 23% for Republicans). That trend, when averaged out over the 16 total days of early voting, produces a vote differential of 371,973. George Bush beat John Kerry by 435,317 votes in 2004. The charts below show the model's estimation for early voting, and the second chart is the current demographic data for registered voters at large in North Carolina.
Early Voting Data and Estimates
Early Vote Numbers 10/16 - 10/21 481,000
Average Daily Vote Total 80,167
Days Remaining for Early Voting 10
Estimated Total Ballots Cast Early 1,282,667

Early Voting Trends Based on Initial Six Days
Total Registered Early Vote % Total Est Early Remaining Votes
Democratic 2,823,247 .56 718,293 2,104,954
Republican 1,985,833 .27 346,320 1,639,513
Independent 1,377,346 .16 205,227 1,172,119
Libertarian 2,994 .01 30 2,964

The baseline for early voting data is a broad trend, the net result reflecting a significant democratic advantage in the total ballots turned in early. Based on this Election Day scenario, there are two factors to consider on Election Day, factors that are in play in every state. Independent voters make up a large portion of the electorate. The ability for Obama or McCain to attract these Independent voters is a key to success. Finally, as always, the ability to turn out the base of the party is significant. In the past, Republicans have proven better at turnout on Election Day. While it is perfectly reasonable to assume that Obama's campaign has reversed the advantage in turnout, as a result of the early voting numbers, it's ultimately a different variable for the actual day of November 4.
My model is essentially a summation of the early voting data, the turnout impact on the three voter affiliation populations, and the split of the independent vote. Demographically, the high number of registered Democrats (a credit to the Obama organization over the last year) and early voting performance make a scenario for a McCain victory rather implausible. Several scenerios are outlined below, and while I expect Obama to perform better than the levels below, it is clear the deck is stacked against McCain. In fact, the big story being missed by the media and election pundits is the foundational demographics that set the stage many months ago.

Scenerio: McCain Wins Independent Vote 60 to 40, and voter turnout among Democrats Trails High Turnout Relative to the Total Population
Turnout % Obama McCain
Democrat .47 1,707,622 0
Republican .7 0 1,493,979
Independent .7 410,284 615,426
Total 2,117,906 2,109,405

Its clear that even if McCain can produce huge turnout numbers and win the Independent vote, Obama would still finish ahead of McCain by 8,500 votes. The total turnout on an election day such as this would be 68%. A more realistic expectation is that the Independent vote might be split evenly, and turnout is around 60% on Election Day (see below). Obama wins by 651,238.

Turnout % Obama McCain
Democrat .6 1,981,266 0
Republican .6 0 1,330,028
Independent .6 454,249 454,249
Total 2,435,515 1,784,277

Obama is more likely to win NC than he is to loose. In fact, a collapse of monumental proportion would have to occur for Obama to lose. Obama must maintain his early vote effort, and perform reasonably strong on Election Day. He doesn't have to overwhelm McCain on election day, he simply must perform reasonably well. This is a model which the campaign has implemented in the battleground states: register new voters to change the playing field, and turn out voters early to gain a head start. Based on my model, running various scenerios, I predict that Obama will win NC by 500,000 to 700,000 votes.

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Four Key Reasons Why Barack Obama Will Be The Next United States President (One Year On)

By Ms CYPRAH - Oct 16th, 2008 at 7:45 am EDT

Also listed in: 10 groups

I joined msnbc's Newsvine in the first week of July of 2007 and immediately got embroiled in heated debates about whether Barack Obama stood any kind of chance to be President of the USA. My belief in his eventual success was unshakeable, and stood confidently firm, even in the face of all the arguments. In fact it was a rather lonely time then, trying to defend my corner as a seemingly 'naive' newcomer in the face of so much scepticism and so many learned Americans telling me otherwise, especially when a few repeatedly pointed out that it was their country and they knew far more about the form than I did. But that cemented my belief even further. Often outsiders can see what we cannot because, being outside of the situation and untainted by its partisan nature, they can see the bigger picture.

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My Detailed 2008 Election Predictions for All 50 States

By Eli Corp - Oct 4th, 2008 at 1:44 am EDT

Also listed in: 5 groups

My Detailed 2008 Presidential Election Predictions!

You can check out your own state and see how every demographic group will likely break down in this election.

Today I made some minor changes to my predictions after news broke that McCain was abandoning his Michigan campaign, and putting resources into Indiana and Pennsylvania. I also made some very minor changes to Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio after looking at some new polling data. These changes were minor and did not change the eventual electoral outcome in any of the states, but instead solidified Obama's lead in those states.

Let me first explain how these election projections were made. Each State was carefully researched for the most recent census and other important demographic data. Using State by State U.S. Census data I broke down the state by Gender, Race, Party Affiliation, Age, Education Level, and Religion.

Using a complex formula I did the following, I created a Demographic profile of individuals. (ex. Men-White-Democrat-18 to 44-College Educated-Catholic) There were about 216 Different Demographic Groups represented.

Next I created a two part formula, the first was issue oriented, the second demographic oriented based on CNN Election 2004 Exit Polls.(http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/) The issues represented a wide variety of issues from Women's Issues, to Urban and Rural Issues, Foreign Policy and Economic Policy. I also included cultural issues such as Gun Rights and Racial Issues.

By answering a series of Yes/No Questions regarding those issues, I assigned specific numerical values to each question either Negative (liberal) or Positive (conservative).

On the Demographic formula I assigned importance based on exit polls from CNN. For instance Party is more important than Age or Gender. Race is more important than Gender etc.

The end result is a formula that is about 90%-95% accurate. I double checked the results against Exit Poll Data from 2004, and they match up remarkably well. Political Party numbers do tend to be under-represented in my formulas but do match up fairly accurately, and do balance out in the end. I used Exit Poll data, and numbers of Democrats and Republicans in the state legislatures to determine likely voter models for each political party.

HERE ARE THE FINAL RESULTS:

I project that Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States!

I project that Barack Obama will win with 338 Electoral Votes to John McCain's 200 Electoral Votes. (270 needed to win)

Obama will win 26 States and the District of Columbia. McCain will win 24 States.

Obama will win 51.12% of the Total Popular Vote; 67,531,664 - 338 Electoral Votes

McCain will win 47.03% of the Total Popular Vote; 62,130,227 - 200 Electoral Votes

Nader, McKinney, Barr and others will win 1.86% of the Vote; 2,451,238 - 0 Electoral Votes

TOTAL VOTES: 132,113,129 - 538 Electoral Votes

Projected difference between Obama and McCain: +4.09%

Obama Projected Wins:

California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Washington DC, Wisconsin.

McCain Projected Wins:

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia.

Below is a full list of Predictions from every State and Washington DC.

FULL LIST OF EVERY STATE AND WASHINGTON DC WITH NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE:

Here is a full list of all state predictions:

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

Washington DC

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

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I post some advertise which I have sent to Obama

By JIAN from Grand Rapids, MI - Sep 14th, 2008 at 6:22 am EDT

Dear Barack Obama,

     First of all, we can help you gain final victory in your run for the presidency. You are considering the hurricane of New Orleans! We can provide a blue print to you. You should set up a nature disaster prevent and emergency department! You become a chief of party, and other minister become a vice-chief of party.Such blue print can buildup compatibility. We can improve the accuracy of weather prediction and avoid panic situation like New Orleans.

     Second, YunFeng is my teacher who can predict people's fortune, polity and including this presidential election. He will help someone and someone will win!Why? He has predicted the hurricane, tornado, thunder! (http://www.512-china.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=92&Itemid=33) This is my post record in CNN.com (http://iknowfuture.blogspot.com/2008/09/my-post-record.html)!If you see the detail,then you can know his ability! Do you know the history of China? If you are familiar with that, then you will know Geliang Zhu, Liang Zhang, Bowen Liu who have supernatural ability and help Bei Liu, Bang Liu, Yuanzhang Zhu to become a king in history of China.

     YunFeng told me a special method and I felt it. After that, a large number of floodwater happened in the world! The accuracy is 100% and I can not say in email and phone. The future what YunFeng predicts is high secret and high science. If we take out those stuff, then the community's progress time will curtail 50 years.I hope see your reply in 3 days, or else I will join the other side's camp or publish my viewpoint.

     I make a self-introduction. I am a international student and come from China.

Our site: www.512-china.org   Read More »

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My Prediction Had To Be Right!

By The Free Advice Man - Aug 29th, 2008 at 8:03 pm EDT

In December 2007 I predicted, at The Democratic National Committee's Partybuilder blog-site, that Senator Barack Obama and Senator Joe Biden would be our ticket in 2008!

I made a mock Rollingstone magazine cover (also predicting Rollingstone's endorsement) and you can see it here:

http://www.democrats.org/page/community/post/TheFixer/Ccs3

To view The Free Advice Man's official endorsement video go to:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ejts46Ll1Nk

Please let the whole world know about this, and let me know what you think.

Best, love, peace, prosperity, and a wonderful, sweet Obama-Biden Victory in November,

Jean-Pierre Ady Fenyo

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prediction thread: how many people in the myBO group on July 8?

By Jon - Jul 2nd, 2008 at 2:02 pm EDT

Also listed in: 4 groups

The number of people in the Senator Obama - Please, No Telecom Immunity and Get FISA Right group is the most important number we're tracking. Our original goal was "over 13000 by the time the FISA vote happens", i.e., the largest group on myBO ... we're clearly going to exceed that. How much farther can we take things?

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My Detailed Predictions for Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia

By Eli Corp - Apr 20th, 2008 at 4:48 pm EDT

Also listed in: Barack Obama (One Million Strong for Barack) | Southeast Ohio for Obama | Students for Barack Obama

I have spent the last two weeks working on a very complicated and detailed Excel Spreadsheet for the next 4 Democratic Primaries. I took data available from the 2000 census as well as from the lastest voter registration information from State Websites. I broke down the state into the major counties with the highest populations, and grouped smaller counties together. Using data available from government websites I took the data about voter registration in each of the counties to determine the number of voters likely to vote in the Primary. I then broke down the population by age and race. Using data from surrounding states exit polls, I used that information to predict likely outcomes among the various age groups and racial groups based on past performance. After formulating how many votes each of the candidates was likely to receive I then broke it down by percentage of the vote for each county and then for each state, and the approximate number of Delegates each candidate will likely receive.

This is probably one of the most accurate predictions that anyone will have on the web, and I was surprised by the results I came up with once I used some logic to come up with these numbers.

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Putting Their Money where Our Mouths Are

By Chris - Apr 8th, 2008 at 6:28 pm EDT

It seems there are these little known enterprises called prediction exchanges. In a nutshell, they act somewhat like stock markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on the likelyhood of future events. Apparently Barack Obama's win in both August and November is a hot commodity in these prediction exchanges the world over.

Anyway, here's a link (opens in new window) to the story in Reuters I found this in. It's much more exciting the way they tell it than the way you read it here!

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The Iching and the Election

By James Andre - Mar 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 am EDT

Also listed in: 10 groups

Here is some of what the iching had to say when I asked if senator Obama would win the general election...

#32 - Continuing

...Act out the laws of your inner Self, trust the inherent correctness of your instincts as you go about your business. In this way you will meet with success.Social customs will offer assurances and support because of their very endurance. Continuing in traditions that are the understood bases of social interaction will now bring order, unity, and a deep sense of security to you and your community.

This does not mean a blind attachment to arbitrary social institutions, but rather an adherence to foundations that support the growth of sound and smooth-working systems in life.

In business and political affairs, pay particular attention to the support of policies that have proved themselves useful. This is not the time to change methods for the sake of change. Instead, it is a time to make these methods work with new trends in thought. Success now comes through Continuing movement toward long-standing objectives that are harmonious with a well-ordered life....

*fifth changing line*

When you are seeking earthly things, apply earthly methods. When your goals are lofty and ambitious, your methods must be inventive and daring. Learn to apply the appropriate kind of effort to achieve the effect you desire.

And the future? Check this out....

#44 - Temptation

...Even in a normally relaxed social environment you should now guard against the fostering of inferior ideas or persons. This may manifest most often in political affairs, for it is here that temptations pose the greatest threat. Do not give power to the people who support these ideas, regardless of the circumstances. Confront issues that seem inferior and encounter publicly persons who represent deficient ideals. Your words will have impact now. ..

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Electoral College Predictions

By Derek Gulbranson - Mar 22nd, 2008 at 9:58 pm EDT

The Washington Post has a nice little interactive map of the Electoral College. You can play around with giving each state to either party and view the results. Here’s some some playing around I did.

Interestingly, Obama and Clinton are exactly tied in the number of wins for states that the Post considers swing states. Both have won 5.

Swing State Tally

New Hampshire - Clinton
Virginia - Obama
Ohio - Clinton
Florida - Clinton
Minnesota - Obama
Iowa - Obama
Missouri - Obama
Colorado - Obama
New Mexico - Clinton
Nevada - Clinton

If you start with the swing states option except giving South Carolina to Barack, then the only swing states Barack needs are Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri. The Republicans can win all the typical battleground states and still loose.

If you start with the swing states option, then give Obama all the swing states where he has won the primary, he wins the electoral with 288. If you do the same for Clinton, she wins with 299.

So what’s going to actually happen? Here’s what I settled on for my prediction. Basically it’s Obama taking all the swing states minus Florida, and I gave Obama South Carolina since it’s 55% black and 90% of them voted for him in the primary.

Democrats with with 330 electoral college votes.

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Mississippi Forecast: Sunny with Scattered Landslides

By Jim Parker - Mar 11th, 2008 at 3:04 am EDT

Also listed in: 7 groups

That’s my read of the way things are shaping up, anyway, from the vantage point of my trusty telephone in Tempe, Arizona.

It’s based on pre-election phonebank interviews that I conducted over the past three days with 256 registered Democratic voters in Mississippi who—incidentally and unexpectedly—moved into a virtual tie with Vermont and Wyoming voters (at least, in this reporter’s practiced eye) as the most polite, and enthusiastic, Obama phonebank call-recipients in the nation.

All results are unofficial and preliminary, of course, but this observer believes that they will borne out by early-afternoon exit polls while tomorrow’s voting is still in progress in the Magnolia State.

My prediction for an early projection of the state for Obama by the newschannels tomorrow evening? I’ll go way out on a short limb and guess that the first “calls” of Mississippi for Obama (by CNN, MSNBC, and FNC) will come in somewhere between 7:00 p.m. and 7:01 p.m. CST, 30 seconds or so after the polls close.

The “slash-and-burn” campaign tactics of Senator Hillary Clinton were rated as a significant factor powering their individual choices by survey participants, who preferred Senator Barack Obama, in this sample, by a margin of 66 to 6. [No kidding...about that, at least, although some kidding is coming. Keep reading and see if you can find it.]

The unofficial tally for my phonebank sample follows:

Barack Obama: 66
No Answer: 54
Line Disconnected/No Longer in Service: 44
Left Message: 43
Refused Call: 19
Line Busy: 14
Hillary Clinton: 6
Undecided: 6
Fax/Modem Line: 3
Republican: 1

When asked for a response, a hypothetical spokesman for the Clinton campaign (pontificating inside my own head) immediately downplayed the survey’s results, arguing that Senator Clinton shouldn’t be judged by results in states she loses or in which she otherwise “underperforms.”

“Besides,” my imaginary Clinton spokesperson sputtered on, “if you assume that Senator Clinton would carry 80-plus percent of the ‘No Answer’ and ‘Line Disconnected/No Longer in Service’ voters—which we believe is our natural constituency and plays to Senator Clinton’s strengths as an experienced leader and a vital change-agent in a dangerous, dangerous world—then you factor in all the 3 a.m. calls that President and Senator Clinton will make to all the superdelegates, and multiply by why?, this race is a statistical dead-heat.”

“And, hey,” my internal Clintonspeak spokespecialist shrugged, eying the results one last time for a glimmer of the spin that campaign absolutely lives on (and for), these days: “Senator Clinton is beating the pants off the ‘Fax/Modem Line’ crowd. That proves something, right there.”

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2008 Final Delegate Prediction

By C Dornfeld - Mar 8th, 2008 at 10:02 pm EST

Also listed in: St. Louis for Obama | U City Loop For Obama!!!

That is correct when it is all said and done my estimate shows that Sen. Barack Obama will still be ahead about 140 delegates - not including any of the superdelegate counts.

After Puerto Rico on June 7, 2008...

Obama = 1,679

Clinton = 1,535

Obama will have won almost two states for every one of Clinton's.

Obama will have more total votes for the nomination that Clinton and the most delegates.

Obama has significantly narrowed the Superdelegate difference in recent weeks. If you remember Clinton had a bunch early, very few once Obama gained momentum and several who have switched in recent weeks. It is hard to imagine in any realistic scenario how Clinton can win.

Maybe that is why Bill Clinton keeps hinting at a joint ticket – glad to see he is keeping his sense of humor despite all the problems he is causing.

Maybe now is a good time to make that additional $20 donation to make sure this becomes a reality...

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2008 Final Delegate Prediction

By C Dornfeld - Mar 8th, 2008 at 10:01 pm EST

Also listed in: Ohio Action Team

Over the last two days I have been doing some number crunching - delegate crunching to be exact. A less than perfect model for predicting I am sure but it would appear that the upcoming twelve primaries will have exactly no impact on the current delegate situation!That is correct when it is all said and done my estimate shows that Sen. Barack Obama will still be ahead about 140 delegates - not including any of the superdelegate counts.After Puerto Rico on June 7, 2008...Obama = 1,679Clinton = 1,535Obama will have won almost two states for every one of Clinton's. Obama will have more total votes for the nomination that Clinton and the most delegates.So this leaves Florida, Michigan and the Superdelegates.If Florida and Michigan are counted "as-is" (both unfair and ridiculous), Hillary would gain about 51 delegates - Obama is still ahead 90 delegates.Obama has significantly narrowed the Superdelegate difference in recent weeks. If you remember Clinton had a bunch early, very few once Obama gained momentum and several who have switched in recent weeks. It is hard to imagine in any realistic scenario how Clinton can win.Maybe that is why Bill Clinton keeps hinting at a joint ticket – glad to see he is keeping his sense of humor despite all the problems he is causing.Maybe now is a good time to make that additional $20 donation to make sure this becomes a reality...

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2008 Final Delegate Prediction

By C Dornfeld - Mar 8th, 2008 at 10:00 pm EST

Also listed in: Missouri Action Team

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Predictions 2008

By C Dornfeld - Mar 8th, 2008 at 9:57 pm EST

Also listed in: 1,000,000 Americans for Obama

Obama will have won almost two states for every one of Clinton's.
Obama will have more total votes for the nomination that Clinton and the most delegates.

So this leaves Florida, Michigan and the Superdelegates.If Florida and Michigan are counted "as-is" (both unfair and ridiculous), Hillary would gain about 51 delegates - Obama is still ahead 90 delegates.Obama has significantly narrowed the Superdelegate difference in recent weeks. If you remember Clinton had a bunch early, very few once Obama gained momentum and several who have switched in recent weeks. It is hard to imagine in any realistic scenario how Clinton can win.Maybe that is why Bill Clinton keeps hinting at a joint ticket – glad to see he is keeping his sense of humor despite all the problems he is causing.Maybe now is a good time to make that additional $20 donation to make sure this becomes a reality...

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I prophetically perdict...

By sharonb-Atlanta - Feb 28th, 2008 at 11:36 am EST

Also listed in: Atlantans For Obama | Prayer warriors for Obama | Professional Black Women for Change

I prophetically perdict...

Barack Obama will win Texas and Ohio, it is his time and not only will he win Texas and Ohio,
he will win the dem nomination and he will go on to beat McCain with more excitement, inspiration, motivation and energy than the world has ever seen before. There will be more than enough big speeches and hugh rallies with tens of thousands of people in attendance and he will become the 44th president of the United States of America.

He will go down in history as the first Black President of the USA. There will someday be a woman president, but it will not be Hillary Clinton, her dynasty and connection with the ways of the past has depleated any chance of her ever accomplishing that goal in the future. Clinton is a great candidate and she holds the admiration of longtime Dems. But she missed her timing and her window of time has pasted. Why didn't she run in 2004, she would have won then, ( oh I forgot Al Gore took her place).

As of present Hillary's campaign titanic is slowly sinking with wounded budget comittments and major donors as well as SD's are beginning to jump ship for the newer Barack-Mauretania, as they see the writing on the wall, however she will most likely remain in the game for a while longer because her supporters believe she deserves some proximity to the Executive branch. But ultimately, we are on the front of a new beginning and that path leads to Obama who is representive of new energy and charisma.

As for Barack Obama this is his time, there will be negative things thrown in to try and stop him however, every negative thing will be turned around for his good. He will receive more publicity than any presidential candidate in the history of time.

This is really really big, even when they try to hurt him it will in fact help him. No weapon formed against him will be able to prosper. It will all slide off like water on a ducks back.
As MC Hammer put it.."You can't touch this".

Every tongue that rises up against him has already been condemned. Everything including the kitchen sink will and is being thrown at him but nothing will stick. Buy his memorabilla now,
because it will be priceless in the future.

He will bring nations together. He will bring stability and prosperity to the economy of the united States and the united nations. And not him directly but he will give the people back their voice and it will happen as he says," from the ground up".

He is the key to the door of the future. Pray for him, as the Gods smile on him,
Of course the pundits and the cynics will continue to lash out, kick, scream and holla, fighting change all the way to the end, but their words will fall on death ears.

He can not be stopped because he is the NOW. He is relevant, he is nessasary, he is history in the making of the 21th century, he is the turning of the page of time, he is the key that unlocks the door to the future. He is relevant to this very moment in time. He was born for such a time as this. His fate is sealed. He can not be stopped.

Yes I am expressing an opinion based on unexplainable "feelings" and "forsight". There are no links to go check out, no quotes from the past, no tangable source file to view.

Well then, one might say, this is nonsense

One might, but unexplainable feelings and forsight have happened in the past.
How unlikely was David to be King, but at the appointed time it happened.
How unlikely was Queen Elizabeth to be Queen but at the appointed time it happened.
How unlikely was man on the moon but at the appointed time it happened.
How unlikely was M.L.KINg Jr to change the mindset of freedom and equality, but at the appointed time it happened.

Do aliens exist,Is there life after death,Can physics see the future,
do we need a crystal ball to see this one coming...

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State of Precinct 721263005 - Feb 2

By Michael D. - Feb 2nd, 2008 at 6:11 pm EST

Also listed in: JeffCo 4 Change | Lakewood4Obama

Funny as it seems to me now, the last few days are just a blur. I started on January 18th as a Barack Obama for President volunteer, and precinct captain. Now that I've gone door to door in my neighborhood, I can see that Barack has had a big appeal, and in fairness so has Hillary. She is a big factor. I have really gone hard to let people know their precinct number and caucus location at Alameda High School, and a lot of people have been given this information. I've instructed people to go to jeffcodems.org. There are still a lot of Hillary supporters in my precinct and they are great people, and I look forward to seeing them Tuesday night. If your interested, my amateur prediction is below:

The numbers:

Barack Obama supporters (most likely to caucus) : 27

Hillary Clinton supporters (most likely to caucus) : 9

Undecided (most likely to caucus) : 3 (+/- 8 maybe)

So ... I'm going with a Total count of 40 people and a total number of delegates as base 2 + 8 which would be 10 delegates. Hillary would be viable over the 6 person threshold. So doing the math...

Barack Obama 27 x 10 / 40 = 6.75 round up 7 delegates

Hillary Clinton 9 x 10 / 40 = 2.25 round down 2 delegates

Undecided factor = 4 x 10 / 40 = 1 no change 1 delegate up for grab.

I really think this precinct is an OBAMA precinct with 7 delegate possible. This is a rough estimate but it is oddly close to the moveOn.org count 70% OBAMA!

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