History is what can happen when we show up, participate, roll up our sleeves, and do the work. Tonight's historic passage of HR 3962 is a giant step toward health care reform in this country. Congratulations to President Obama, members of his tireless team, the Democratic House leadership, and all congressmen and congresswomen who voted in favor tonight. Now begins the work on the Senate side. Momentum is critical.
-- Patricia McGahan
Wilmington, North Carolina
Hi FriendThere is a new group that just started on Facebook that I thought Organizing for America members may be interested in joining. Please see United Against Racism -
http://apps.facebook.com/causes/354956/80588439?m=9dc74a6eUnited Against Racism
posted by David Apperson
Last Sunday was the first time I ever participated in canvassing, let alone in staunch Republican country in the Appalachian mountains of Western North Carolina. Teamed with other volunteers from Knoxville, TN, we drove bright and early to Swain county to join the Democratic office in Bryson City. The town was empty as everyone was still in church. Marc, the Bryson City lead organizer welcomed us and sent us to lunch until 12:30 PM. At the briefing, we found out that Swain county was on the bleeding edge of the campaign and one of the very last areas in the country to be reached. We felt like pioneers on the frontier. Marc explained that the most frustrating for earlier volunteers was to find the addresses. As we found out later, many mailboxes are missing digits or have no names and numbers. Houses are often far and hidden from the road at the end of steep driveways with lots of potholes. We were also warned that, since no canvassing had taken place on a Sunday, we may get comments about attempting such activities on a church day. <P>Making our way to the location, focussing on programming the GPS helped push back the rising apprehension. The most difficult was indeed finding the houses, and after passing back and forth on the same road, I was very aware that my new Volvo was becoming very conspicuous. The people we managed to talk to, about 7, were polite, distant, and would not talk about politics with strangers. Some had already voted. Only one pitbull came out to sniff us and a goat halted my car uphill in a perilous pothole. After driving the same loop from both ends several times, we realized that the road had two different names, starting at each end, with apparently no distinction in the numbers. On another road, the GPS insisted that the address was on the right side of a road that run parallel to a four lane highway (no house there).<P>The most disturbing visit was to a nursing home who had a couple of residents listed. We were told by the campaign office to go to the front desk and identify ourselves first. However, the main glass door to a decent looking building opened without warning onto a long hospital-looking corridor with patients lying in their beds or sitting in wheelchairs. The center of the corridor was a community area where I expected people to be watching TV. A booming man's voice came out in a weird rhythm and before I realized it I was walking in the middle of a preaching. My volunteer partner said that it was a Pentacostal preacher, and while I stared in amazement, he found someone in a nurse's outfit who said she was only the weekend watch. It appeared that she was the only one there. <P>One resident who was lying on his side in bed was hooked to many machines and nodded with recognition when we approached him. He tried to rise up on his pillow with great effort but did not have enough strength. The room was reeking with a strong urine smell. The nurse made no attempt to help him but, to be fair, she could not have moved him by herself. The second man was not coherent. On the way back, the preacher was even more out of breath and sometimes, an English sentence was intelligible. I was agast to hear him say that "Jesus is for white people." My partner did not hear it so maybe I misunderstood.
<P>
Does the Obama health plan contain provisions for regulating and supervising nursing homes?
Nevada
2004 Final Results:
Kerry 48%
Bush 51%
2004 Final Results (Distribution by Party):
Democrats 35.0 %
Republicans 39.0 %
Independents 36.0 %
2008 Early Voting (Distribution by Party):
Democrats 51.0 % (gained 16% compared to 2004)
Republicans 31.6 % (lost 7.4%)
Independents 17.4 % (lost 8.6%)
A total of 59% of 2004 turnout already voted (as of October 31).
New Mexico
Kerry 49%
Bush 50%
Democrats 40.0 %
Republicans 33.0 %
Independents 27.0 %
Democrats 52.7 % (gained 12.7% compared to 2004)
Republicans 32.8 % (lost 0.2%)
Independents 14.5 % (lost 12.5%)
A total of 25% of 2004 turnout already voted (as of November 1).
Iowa
Democrats 34.0 %
Republicans 36.0 %
Independents 30.0 %
Democrats 46.9 % (gained 12.9% compared to 2004)
Republicans 28.9 % (lost 7.1%)
Independents 24.2 % (lost 5.8%)
A total of 32% of 2004 turnout already voted (as of November 1).
North Carolina
Kerry 44%
Bush 56%
Democrats 39.0 %
Republicans 40.0 %
Independents 21.0 %
Democrats 51.5 % (gained 12.5% compared to 2004)
Republicans 30.1 % (lost 9.9%)
Independents 18.4 % (lost 2.6%)
A total of 74% of 2004 turnout already voted (as of November 2).
Florida
Kerry 47%
Bush 52%
Democrats 37.0 %
Republicans 41.0 %
Independents 22.0 %
Democrats 45.7 % (gained 8.7% compared to 2004)
Republicans 37.2 % (lost 3.8%)
Independents 17.1 % (lost 4.9%)
A total of 56% of 2004 turnout already voted (as of November 2).
Colorado
Democrats 29.0 %
Republicans 38.0 %
Independents 33.0 %
Democrats 37.7 % (gained 8.7% compared to 2004)
Republicans 35.9 % (lost 2.1%)
Independents 26.4 % (lost 6.6%)
A total of 61% of 2004 turnout already voted (as of October 31).
_____________________________________________________________
Sources:
CNN (2004 results): http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/
CNN (2008 early vote results): http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/27/early.voting.map/index.html
US Election Project (2008 early vote results): http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
The GOP's doleful prospects extend to North Carolina, where the fruits of a rotten campaign mean Sen. Libby (Dole) is about to be canned.
When Early Voting began, answering the question of "Where are the Democratic voters in North Carolina?" was easy: in the counties with the highest Democratic registration. But now that Early Voting is over, answering that question is a little trickier, b/c it depends on who has already voted. Luckily the NC Board of Elections makes that data available to us.
Below is a table where I attempt to answer this question. For purposes of clarity, I've taken out the obvious examples of the top 3 counties in population--Mecklenburg, Wake, and Guilford. In the first column below, the % is that county's Democratic turnout by the end of Early voting. In the 2nd column, counties are ranked in descending order by their Democratic Registration.
But the 3rd and 4th columns are the important ones. Column 3 is where the counties rank after Early Voting by their numbers of Democrats who've not yet voted. Notice the counties in bold that are moving up the list from Column 2. Finally, Column 4 is a bit of guess work: based on Early Voting, how will these counties rank, after Tuesday, in terms of Democrats who did not vote at all? To arrive at this total I did a rough, across the board estimate: I multiplied the county's early vote turnout % by 150% (FYI, doing this across the state would give Democratic turnout of 80%--optimistic, but very possible). Again, note how the counties in bold continue moving up the list, if things go on as they have so far.
Is this alarming? Yes it is. The reason is that whereas in the 2nd column, registration, the counties in bold account for only 21.3% of Democratic registration (again, not counting Mecklenburg, Guilford, & Wake), in Column 3 they have increased to 24.3% of Democrats who've not yet voted. Not bad, one might say, but it gets worse. If those same turnout trends are extended through Tuesday, those counties in bold (column 4) will then account for (outside of the Big Three), 43.2% of all registered Democrats left at home. I.e., not Durham County, not Orange, or Buncombe, which look set to get their turnout, but these smaller, more rural counties, which probably have fewer volunteers and less GOTV organization. These counties look likely to leave voters at home (just as many of them did in 2004, especially Robeson, which has historically low turnout).
Can this pattern by changed in the next 54 hours???
Early turnout Rank, Dem. Rank, Dems Est.final rank,
registration not yet voted Dems. who stayed home
57% DURHAM CUMBERLAND ROBESON
46% CUMBERLAND FORSYTH CUMBERLAND
47% FORSYTH DURHAM FORSYTH
56% BUNCOMBE ROBESON CABARRUS
51% PITT BUNCOMBE NEW HANOVER
46% NEW HANOVER NEW HANOVER GASTON
58% ORANGE PITT DAVIDSON
23% ROBESON GASTON JOHNSTON
44% GASTON CABARRUS HARNETT
46% ALAMANCE JOHNSTON ALAMANCE
42% JOHNSTON ORANGE ROWAN
37% CABARRUS ALAMANCE COLUMBUS
52% UNION DAVIDSON PITT
52% NASH ROWAN DURHAM
56% WAYNE IREDELL ONSLOW
46% IREDELL UNION HALIFAX
37% DAVIDSON ONSLOW RANDOLPH
42% ROWAN HARNETT CLEVELAND
48% CATAWBA CLEVELAND IREDELL
43% ONSLOW CATAWBA CRAVEN
52% WILSON NASH ROCKINGHAM
44% CLEVELAND COLUMBUS BUNCOMBE
51% EDGECOMBE HALIFAX CATAWBA
51% BRUNSWICK ROCKINGHAM HAYWOOD
45% ROCKINGHAM CRAVEN UNION
38% HARNETT WAYNE SURRY
44% CRAVEN WILSON DUPLIN
41% HALIFAX BRUNSWICK BEAUFORT
37% COLUMBUS RANDOLPH LINCOLN
With 4 days left, my question is: Where are the remaining Democratic votes in North Carolina?At first glance the answer seems obvious that most of them are in 3 areas:
These are, after all, where the most Democrats are registered. So perhaps my question should be phrased a little differently: where are the Democratic votes that will be left at home after Tuesday, November 4? This question may have a very different answer, because the counties I listed above have the advantage, in general, of having great GOTV organizations. What I'm concerned about is other parts of the state that have, historically, much lower turnout.In the list below, counties are listed in order by the 3rd column, which I'll get to in a moment. But in the 1st column you'll see the number of Democrats registered, and the usual suspects are there--Mecklenburg, Wake, etc. These also happen to be counties that are having great early voter turnout this year, too.In the 2nd column, as a rough way of estimating this year's eventual turnout in the county, and trying to account for the great enthusiasm and organization this year, I've taken these same counties 2004 turnout percentage, added 10% to it, and multiplied it by the 1st column. In reality, I expect greater than a 10% increase, but no matter--the idea is to get to a comparative number in the all-important 3rd column: Which counties will leave the most Democrats sitting at home, not voting?That list will start looking quite different: notice in particular how Robeson County starts moving up the list, from 11th in registration to 7th in "not voting." This is due to its low turnout in 2004, and also to itslow turnout, compared to other counties in the 2008 primary and 2008 early voting to date. In fact, because the GOTV is so good in Buncombe, Orange, etc., that Robeson jumps right over them. In fact I anticipate it will jump over Durham and Forsyth, too, and leave the 5th most voters at home--maybe as many as 25,000.To a lesser extent the same is true for Cumberland, a neighboring county: while it has better turnout than Robeson by far, it still tends to trail other metropolitan counties. From 5th in registration it jumps to 4th in"won't vote", and could easily surpass Wake and even Guilford in this number, ending up leaving the 2nd most voters at home.County Reg.Dems Projected Won't Vote VoteMecklenburg 283948 206146 77802Guilford 173146 125704 47442Wake 248978 208146 40832CUMBERLAND 106778 69299 37479Durham 116961 82341 34620Forsyth 100214 72755 27459ROBESON 54031 28528 25503PITT 56102 36410 19692Gaston 49117 30256 18861Buncombe 77532 60552 16980New Hanover 55930 39375 16555Onslow 31683 19168 12515Catawba 32861 20604 12257Orange 55329 43212 12117Johnston 40289 28807 11482Cabarrus 39708 28391 11317Union 37895 27512 10383Rowan 33437 23172 10265EDGECOMBE 29086 18877 10209HALIFAX 27163 17031 10132Iredell 34899 24953 9946Davidson 34333 24548 9785NASH 35672 25898 9774HARNETT 28828 19344 9484 This seems sad in any year, and in this year's election, potentially devastating. 60,000 or more voters left at home in these 2 counties alone, lmost as many as Mecklenburg. Can--and should--anything be done about this at this late date? Could they use more help down there from some of the more volunteer-rich counties? By the end of Saturday, over half of Durham County will have voted. In Robeson? As of a couple days ago, only 12% or so had voted. I don't know the answer about rellocation of volunteers--I just wanted to call attention to it before it's too late.
Today, for the first time, Obama has a tiny lead in the polling average in North Carolina. Early voting has been overwhelmingly for Obama. That margin will narrow to a few percentage points come Election Day. Obama's average polling lead is only 0.8 points, well within the margin of error, and McCain certainly could still stage a comeback in the state, but Obama's chances in North Carolina are better than even.
This is astonishing. North Carolinians haven't voted Democratic for president since 1976, when they sided with the Democratic governor of Georgia. In 2004, they went for Bush by double digits even though their own Senator, John Edwards, was on the ticket against him. A Democratic African-American Senator from a midwestern state carrying North Carolina would be epochal.
North Carolina is a big chunk of change, electorally speaking. With 15 votes, it's tied for 9th biggest state in the Electoral College. If Obama were to take North Carolina, he would win even if McCain's crazed assault on Pennsylvania succeeded in carrying the state for the Republicans, and even if Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Missouri all shifted back to McCain. Obama's chances have never looked so good.
I'm back at my day job now, but last week at the Obama office in Raleigh I discussed with the field organizer there what I'll be doing when I show up again at the end of October.
It's the final GOTV (get-out-the-vote) operation....
Here's the release that went out today about the national rally. There are now 19 sites around the country for this event. And we've got 389 registrants in Chapel Hill! Haven't signed up yet? Visit http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gshbsd to do so and to get the latest details. If you ARE a mama, if you HAVE a mama, if you KNOW a mama, please turn out Nov. 1 (3-5 p.m., Southern Vilage Green)!
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE OCTOBER 20, 2008momsforobama@sbcglobal.net
MOMS FOR OBAMA/BIDEN TO HOLD NATIONAL RALLY DAY--Hundreds of Mothers, Husbands, and Children Expected at Rallies to be held across America on November 1 at 12:00 pm PST (3:00 pm EST)
Chicago, IL – Mothers and families are signing up by the hundreds to plan and participate in a rally being organized as a show of support for Barack Obama’s candidacy just days before Election Day. Moms for Obama, a national grassroots organization, are coordinating the event, billed as “National Rally Day” by its organizers.
On November 1 at 12:00 pm PST, mothers and their children will participate in marches and rallies across the country. The event is designed to allow mothers to make their voices heard in their own community rather than traveling to a single rally location. Moms for Obama believes that as supporters join hands and hearts for America’s children in small towns and big cities across the United States, our voices will echo from sea to shining sea.
“This time, this moment, our future is worth fighting for Barack Obama's message of hope, action, and change offers a vision and promise America can believe in.” shared Moms for Obama Administrator, Tamara Burrell. “Under his leadership we will see a conclusion in Iraq, healthcare resolution for all, and economic solutions that will benefit our families.” “Join Moms across America on November 1 in standing up for change.”
The list keeps growing of cities in which mothers are coordinating rallies and marches to show their support for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Currently, more than 17 cities across America are participating. The group expects to have nationwide participation with multiple rally locations in each state.
Moms for Obama formed in February 2007 as a core group of mothers determined to make a difference in the 2008 election through grassroots organizing. Members felt the need to take action and get involved in the political process in order to make their voices heard after watching the Bush policies of the last few years that have abandoned America’s children in favor of special interests. There are more than 100 million mothers in the United States and the demographic is one that is respected and valued by candidates based on mothers’ consistent turnout on Election Day and their commitment to the issues that affect our children and country.
Interested parties are encouraged to visit the website at www.obama-mamas.com or http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/MomsforObama to find out more.
WHAT: MOMS for OBAMA NATIONAL RALLY DAY
WHERE: Across America – See list http://www.obama-mamas.com/rally.html
WHEN: Saturday November 1, 2008 at 12:00 pm PST
MEDIA: Open Event. Please contact with specific requests.
Well, things are starting to happen it seems. A bear found dead with Obama signs on it at WCU near Ashville, NC today, tires slashed at the rally in Fayetteville yesterday, phone calls to some of the ACORN offices with threats. We can't be too careful. These things are going to happen I am afraid. Please, be careful out there. If you can don't go to vote alone. Take someone with you. If you have a sign in your yard, be careful with it. There are reports of vadalism and burning. If you have signs or bumper stickers on your car, be very careful with that. Just really watch yourself out there. We just don't know what we are dealing with anymore. With the people who are trying to divide our country and stir up hate, we just can't take a chance.
Then, charges that Gen. Powell only endorsed Barack because of race. Even though he directly addressed that. Very eloquently I thought. Yet, some people still said it was all about race. In fact the things Gen. Powell said yesterday really made a lot of sense. He spoke very well and said a lot of things that needed to be said. He defined what a lot of people have hinted at, yet never said, and he said it in a way that really could not be argued with. I guess that is why the only argument left is the one some are using. It has to be about race. Because they just don't know what else to say.
I listen to the people talk and I listen to McCain speak and I hear them say how far to the left Barack is and I am amazed sometimes when I hear it. I don't know how many realize it, but he really isn't that far left. He is more of a centrist than he is to the left. Yet he is charged as being very liberal, way left, the most liberal of all. The list just goes on. I have to laugh sometimes when I hear it. But, I guess we will have the last laugh one day.
Well, that is my thoughts for today. Just my rambles, random thoughts from my mind.
Oh, yeah, about 50,000 people have signed up to censure Michelle Bachman, and they have collected nearly $1 million just over the weekend for her opponent. Just thought I would update that. She is now denying she said it, saying her comments were taken out of context. Not sure how you can do that when it is on tape but ok. It was live when I saw it so that's hard to take out of context. But, you have to do what you have to do I guess. It got lots of play over the weekend in her local area on the TV I guess...not in her favor either.
Talk to you tomorrow.
I was at the state fair in Raleigh yesterday and apparently there were Democratic and Republican booths there handing out stickers. There was also early voting so there were many people walking around with either Obama/Biden and Democratic stickers or McCain/Palin stickers. One thing was certain; the Obama/Biden stickers outnumbered the McCain/Palin stickers by at least 4 times. It certainly made me optimistic for NC finally turning blue for the first time in 16 years.
The USS Obama will be part of the festivities at the Moms for Obama rally in Chapel Hill Nov. 1.
The creation of rally speaker Alethea Gerding, her husband, and a family friend, the Obama took its maiden voyage at the July 4 parade in Carrboro. The ship has been rebuilt for this event and is now ship shape and ready to sail!
Learn more about the rally and sign up at http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gshbsd.
Great news! 363 people have already signed up for the Moms for Obama National Rally Day event in Chapel Hill on Nov. 1 (3-5 pm. on the Southern Village Green).
If you are a Mama, if you have a Mama, if you know a Mama--the Moms for Obama Rally is the place to be! Visit http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gshbsd for event details. And be sure to sign up so that we can keep you posted on the latest.
Thanks to the bands Jule Brown and Velvet for donating their time and music to the Mamas for Obama Celebration Rally, Nov. 1 (3-5 p.m.) on the Southern Village Green in Chapel Hill.Here's more about our musicians:
Jule Brown http://www.myspace.com/julebrown Accomplished Pittsboro musician Mark Holland and his band have a blues-rock sound reminiscent of the early blues masters infused with an updated contemporary rock energy sure to get you up on your feet! Velvet http://www.myspace.com/velvetpop Chapel Hill based rock trio Jay Manley, Jane Francis and Zsolt David craft extraordinarily cohesive rock with a lot of punch and zero pretense. Their high-energy live performance is thought-provoking and impossible to ignore!
Reposting from Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/bart-motes/obamas-smart-targeted-web_b_135249.html
Obama's Smart Targeted Web Campaign
Add another headache to the McCain campaign's faltering efforts. Barack Obama, avid Iphone user (see video) is employing state specific web sites to hammer John McCain. Websites specific to Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio point out the disastrous impact of a McCain presidency on the lives of voters in each state. Though the websites employ the same basic format, they include statistics specific to each state.
The websites aren't quite as sexy as the new Obama for Iphone application, which gives you a ready made call list of your friends, uses the Iphone's GPS to tell you where your nearest office is, and provides users with position papers on every imaginable issue. But they may be even more effective.
For instance, the Ohio website notes that "Bankruptcies Rose 19% In Ohio In The 12 Months Leading Up To June 2008; 54,160 Bankruptcies Were Filed During This Time."
Specific data such as this arms local supporters and helps convince undecided voters that John McCain will directly and negatively impact their lives.
The program is another example of the Democratic National Committee's 50 State plan. States like North Carolina and Virginia would have been ignored by a less aggressive (read previous Democratic) campaign. But because the Obama campaign built on Howard Dean's decision to build a presence in every state, not just reliably Democratic states, the McCain campaign is forced to use its limited resources to play defense in North Carolina and Virginia.
Most provocatively, the North Carolina and Virginia sites allow voters to click on their area and see funding for local projects opposed by McCain.
Websites cannot substitute for the hard work of grassroots campaigning: particularly phone banking and canvassing. But they can augment the work of local organizers and volunteers. Since the names of the state specific websites are catchy and memorable "McCain Versus Ohio," it is easy for volunteers and staff to mention them to voters and magnify their impact.
The Obama campaign is pioneering the merger between high technology and grassroots campaigning begun by Howard Dean and Joe Trippi. The results will be felt long after this election.
Note that since this post, several other state sites have been targeted. These include:
www.McCainvsMontana.com
www.McCainvsNM.com
www.McCainvsMichigan.com
I'm an expatriate New Orleanian working for a New Orleans company operating in North Carolina. You could say I'm a latecomer to the Obama campaign; my (former) favorite candidates either didn't run or dropped out. But I feel good about Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Don't feel so good about Bush-McCain-Palin. I have a twenty-something son, and I'd like to do whatever little things I can to try to leave him a world that's not so screwed up.
So, I originally volunteered to work for the campaign in Pennsylvania, and was looking forward to that (never been there). But lo and behold, it started looking like a close race right here in North Carolina, so I decided to do my part and try to make a difference here. I'll be taking an extra week off work (the week leading up to election day) and make myself available to the campaign office in Raleigh. I'll try to keep you up to date here about what I'm up to!
I posted the following on the Charlotte Observer's political forum:
I was transferred to Germany last June and I still have 20 months left before I will be back home. In the meantime, my NC plate is proudly displayed in my rear window and my Obama sticker decorates the trunk of my car.
More below..
