www.barackobama.com
Wednesday, 15th October 2008
Hofstra University
Hempstead, New York
Driving the Conversation:
The Arena will be live during tonight's McCain-Obama debate. The "zinger" conversation is here.
Since Obama has plenty of ground to give in the polls, I'll contain my advice to McCain. This is John McCain's very last chance to demonstrate the statesmanship that America craves right now, but the time has passed for that to be enough; he also needs Obama to appear weaker. It's a tough balancing act, but there also has never been better forum for that than tonight's face-to-face sit-down. More...
The further away Obama gets from a podium, the more vulnerable he appears. And the only deer-in-the-headlights look, eyes-averted response I've ever seen from Obama was when he was confronted with Fannie Mae in the last debate. Accordingly, trying to rattle him with Ayers or Wright is a tawdry distraction from both McCain's statesmanship mission and the more indefensible weaknesses in Obama's relevant history (i.e., since becoming a US senator) and campaign platform (e.g., his apparent obliviousness to next year's deficit and his capital markets tax policy). But if viewers see Obama in obvious physical discomfort, as he seems to be when suddenly confronted with even a single substantive weakness, it could resurrect whatever lingering doubts they might have about his experience, the wisdom of his policies and his suitability for the world stage.The debate will also be shaped by Obama's double-digit lead in the polls. Sitting beside the presumptive president-elect, Bob Schieffer will come to the table loaded for bear and forewarned by the lessons of the preceding debates. He won't tolerate a lot of the issue fudging and bilateral character attacks of the past month, and he's got the format to enforce it. If McCain points out that he, not Bush, is running for president, expect Shieffer to tacitly agree. If Obama launches into a lengthy recitation of his spending plans or a canned middle class mantra, expect Shieffer to nail him on fiscal realism without McCain having to say a word. But McCain will blow it all if he can't re-discover his inner McCain 2000 and show the nation why bi-partisanship, moderation and experience still matter. If he cannot, he doesn't deserve to be our president.
Advice to McCain:On Taxes and Spending: George W. Bush spent too much. Obama wants to raise taxes to spend even more. It is time to put an end to the Bush/Obama spending.On reform: Sarah Palin and I have fought political machines. Barack Obama was raised by one. He is the proud product of one of American's most corrupt big city machines. He never fought that machine...thechange he would bring to Washington is to turn Washington DC's earmark factory into Chicago's machine.Advice to Obama:Run out the clock.
Perhaps McCain ought to apologize to the American people for launching ridiculous attacks on Obama as a "friend of terrorists" and promise that in the next three weeks he will curb his "pit bull with lipstick" and focus his campaign on the issues and his fitness to lead the nation in addressing them.
I hate to be literary, but let's try Shakespeare (was it Polonius?) who said: "To thine ownself be true."Good advice for all of them. Skip the talking points and debate preps and packaged one-liners. Just say honestly what you think. Bob Schieffer doesn't need that advice. More than most on TV, he's his own guy. It could be a good debate.
For Obama: Get the nation to focus on the truth about the campaign McCain has run -- erratic, opportunistic, scary. Is this the change we need?
To McCain: Now is not the time for a risky "surge" of negative, personal attacks. They will not help secure your victory, but will instead lead to lasting harm to your reputation. Just be yourself, let the chips fall where they may, and if you must lose, lose with honor.To Obama: You're a football fan, so I'll put it in those terms: neither a prevent defense nor trying to run up the score are warranted here. Keep handing the ball to your running back (of policy proposals and bipartisan rhetoric), move the ball forward 5-7 yards at a time, and stay in the center of the field to keep the clock running. If the other guy attempts a Hail Mary, don't leap for an interception, just stay where you are and knock it down. More...
To Schieffer: Please let the candidates renegotiate the rules on the fly, and do ignore the time limits when they get in the way of interesting exchanges. Also, ask at least one question about the Constitution -- the current President doesn't seem to take it seriously, and it's worth spending some time allowing voters to see how the next administration might be different.
Bob Schieffer has a unique opportunity tonight, given the lackluster performance of his media predecessors in all the preceding debates, including the vice-presidential debate. He can ask the kind of questions that illustrate the sharp differences between two candidates. More...
Issues like abortion, gun control, redistribution of wealth, government ownership of private property, marriage and judicial appointment goals have been entirely ignored. Perhaps the previous anchors did not want to show the American people just how wide the gap is on values issues between McCain and Obama. Schieffer can go where no anchor has gone before -- for a real debate.
The most important advice for Obama is that he should not want to "win" the debate -- at least not as victory is usually defined in debate competition. But he knows this. It has been the secret of his great success in the first two debates. Competitive debating scores the number of 'hits' against an opponent. But that is counter productive for Obama. "Taking down" John McCain is not the goal, nor is it possible. More...
Who are the undecided or movable voters? Older white people, and especially older white men. Scoring a lot of hits against a person they may be inclined to identify with (a war hero to boot) doesn't move Obama closer to the Presidency. Treating him with respect, agreeing frequently, praising McCain's good ideas was exactly the right strategy, when coupled with a show of strength and one or two very firm "here is where you were wrong, John" responses. Experts commenting right after the first debate thought it was a draw. In debate terms that might have been true. But it moved Obama a greater distance toward being President than any debate since Reagan against Carter. His central task since the nomination has been to make Americans more comfortable with him: to give them a basis for answering for themselves the question put by McCain and Palin "Who is Barack Obama really?" That's was what he began to do in the first debates and should undertake to continue to do tonight.
Obama and McCain should address the subject of income inequality and the forgotten middle class by proposing a new federal income tax bracket indexed for inflation and no higher than 43% on all income greater than $1 million a year. More...
It is absurd to pretend as we do that small business owners making $250,000 a year are in the same boat financially as the large number of Wall Street tycoons who make more than $1 million a year. Reagan was right that a top income tax rate of 79% was counter-productive, but a more modest top rate would not be counter-productive and would be fairer to all concerned.
My advice for all three is to be themselves. Bob Schieffer should run this debate like he runs his Sunday show. It’s civil, it’s easy to watch, and most importantly, it’s informative. Don’t let the debate rules run the show. You know how to moderate and what are they going to do, replace you halfway through. More...
For Obama, it’s keep doing more of the same. He has come off as a leader, both genuine and informed. For McCain it’s probably about finding yourself. The country has been exposed to half a dozen John McCain’s since the convention. Each of them has been less and less appealing. Go out and be yourself. Twenty months into a campaign unveiling an October surprise will come off as looking desperate. Being what you think voters want or just not being Barack Obama has not worked. Just try being John McCain for a night.
McCain has one last chance to convince voters that he knows how to fix the economy and Obama doesn't. It's a tall order--to say the least--given their performances to date and the economic plan that McCain is selling, but it's his only hope. Obama just needs to keep doing what he's been doing--stay cool, calm, and on top of his brief. One more thing: Obama needs to have a deft answer at the ready if McCain plays the Ayers card, and all he needs to do is remind people that the problem is "the economy, stupid," not some obscure 60s radical whose heinous acts occurred when Obama was 8 years old.
I'd urge Obama to grab the high ground and hold it. Show that he's the bigger man - and that he's above the pettiness of McCain's attacks - and ready to get about the business of getting the country back on track. McCain's playing a losing hand - and an attack strategy reinforces that point. Obama should avoid letting McCain drag him into an alley fight.
McCain should present Americans with the very real prospect of a Democratic President working with a big-majority Democratic Congress, thus returning America to the happy days (sic) of 1977 and 1993, when Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton tried to move the country well to the left. More...
Appealing to the instinctive moderation of the American people, McCain might say to Obama, “We we were all born with a left hand and a right hand. And we’re supposed to use both. But if you’re elected, Senator Obama, you and the Democrat-controlled Congress will be two left hands on the national tiller—and two left hands in the national till.”
Anyone closely watching the experience of the US over the past 8 years or so would recognize that something has changed. The so-called 'unipolar moment' has vanished and we are discovering that the laws of gravity affect America too. Geopolitically, in Iraq, Afghanistan and across the turbulent Middle East. And Economically, as reflected in our current financial meltdown which has forced a massive restructuring of financial structures here and globally. More...
Ask the candidates how each of them - once elected -- would speak credibly to the American people about the tough choices that lie ahead. The really tough ones -- on national security, on domestic spending and entitlements, on priorities. You cannot promise everything to everyone. What Are those really tough choices? And are the American people ready for some real, candid leadership?
Sen. Obama should say something like this:"John McCain wants to talk about a guy who was involved in blowing up buildings when I was eight years old. I think it's more relevant to talk about his friend who blew up the United States economy when Sen. McCain was 72."
Senator Obama, remain steadfast and principled. Continue on course, and let the other guy fumble. Sound as smart as you are and on top of the issues and assume the audience will understand; they want a President who knows what’s going on & can explain complex ideas in simple sentences. More...
Reiterate what you plan to do to build a bright future for every American and inspire them as citizens. Stop saying “John is right” when you agree; try saying “there are some good points but more is needed.” Senator McCain, this is your last chance to show that you are a leader, not a cranky contrarian with a pit bull for a pet. That won’t ensure victory as this point, but it will restore your reputation as an honorable man and give you the best chance to lose less badly. Mr. Schieffer, ask for specifics and ask them to directly engage what the other has said; come back and press if they don’t. It’s more important to go deep on some issues, so the audience can truly see the difference, than follow the script.
For Schieffer: The candidates pay no attention to the rules their campaigns have negotiated, so neither should you.For Obama: You’ve proven yourself as cool, confident, and leaderly. Now it’s time to relax a bit and show voters you’ll be good company for the next four-to-eight years. For McCain: What happens in a presidential debate becomes part of your historical legacy. Tonight is about more than making it to the White House – it’s about how you will be remembered by future generations.
Advice to all:Use the words "solutions" and "specifics" as many time as you can: Schieffer, ask about them, and Obama and McCain, speak about them.And McCain - say something nice about Obama..."nice young man..."And Obama - say something nice about McCain - "courageous man who has been willing to stand up to his base on immigration and campaign finance reform. But where is that John McCain today?"
To Bob Schieffer:Don't ask the candidates which programs they would cut or taxes they would raise because of the bailouts, thereby implying that it has qualitatively changed our long-term budget situation, it hasn't. More...
If we end up losing $300 billion on the bailouts (a high estimate), this would raise our debt to GDP ratio by 2 percentage points. This is not trivial, but we see increases or falls in the debt to GDP ratio of this magnitude all the time and no one even notices. The bailouts are real money, but they don't hugely change the long-term budget situation and it would be a mistake for the moderator to imply that they do.
http://www.politico.com/arena/
http://www.hofstra.edu/debate/
http://www.cctvcambridge.org/node/4609
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