When Early Voting began, answering the question of "Where are the Democratic voters in North Carolina?" was easy: in the counties with the highest Democratic registration. But now that Early Voting is over, answering that question is a little trickier, b/c it depends on who has already voted. Luckily the NC Board of Elections makes that data available to us.
Below is a table where I attempt to answer this question. For purposes of clarity, I've taken out the obvious examples of the top 3 counties in population--Mecklenburg, Wake, and Guilford. In the first column below, the % is that county's Democratic turnout by the end of Early voting. In the 2nd column, counties are ranked in descending order by their Democratic Registration.
But the 3rd and 4th columns are the important ones. Column 3 is where the counties rank after Early Voting by their numbers of Democrats who've not yet voted. Notice the counties in bold that are moving up the list from Column 2. Finally, Column 4 is a bit of guess work: based on Early Voting, how will these counties rank, after Tuesday, in terms of Democrats who did not vote at all? To arrive at this total I did a rough, across the board estimate: I multiplied the county's early vote turnout % by 150% (FYI, doing this across the state would give Democratic turnout of 80%--optimistic, but very possible). Again, note how the counties in bold continue moving up the list, if things go on as they have so far.
Is this alarming? Yes it is. The reason is that whereas in the 2nd column, registration, the counties in bold account for only 21.3% of Democratic registration (again, not counting Mecklenburg, Guilford, & Wake), in Column 3 they have increased to 24.3% of Democrats who've not yet voted. Not bad, one might say, but it gets worse. If those same turnout trends are extended through Tuesday, those counties in bold (column 4) will then account for (outside of the Big Three), 43.2% of all registered Democrats left at home. I.e., not Durham County, not Orange, or Buncombe, which look set to get their turnout, but these smaller, more rural counties, which probably have fewer volunteers and less GOTV organization. These counties look likely to leave voters at home (just as many of them did in 2004, especially Robeson, which has historically low turnout).
Can this pattern by changed in the next 54 hours???
Early turnout Rank, Dem. Rank, Dems Est.final rank,
registration not yet voted Dems. who stayed home
57% DURHAM CUMBERLAND ROBESON
46% CUMBERLAND FORSYTH CUMBERLAND
47% FORSYTH DURHAM FORSYTH
56% BUNCOMBE ROBESON CABARRUS
51% PITT BUNCOMBE NEW HANOVER
46% NEW HANOVER NEW HANOVER GASTON
58% ORANGE PITT DAVIDSON
23% ROBESON GASTON JOHNSTON
44% GASTON CABARRUS HARNETT
46% ALAMANCE JOHNSTON ALAMANCE
42% JOHNSTON ORANGE ROWAN
37% CABARRUS ALAMANCE COLUMBUS
52% UNION DAVIDSON PITT
52% NASH ROWAN DURHAM
56% WAYNE IREDELL ONSLOW
46% IREDELL UNION HALIFAX
37% DAVIDSON ONSLOW RANDOLPH
42% ROWAN HARNETT CLEVELAND
48% CATAWBA CLEVELAND IREDELL
43% ONSLOW CATAWBA CRAVEN
52% WILSON NASH ROCKINGHAM
44% CLEVELAND COLUMBUS BUNCOMBE
51% EDGECOMBE HALIFAX CATAWBA
51% BRUNSWICK ROCKINGHAM HAYWOOD
45% ROCKINGHAM CRAVEN UNION
38% HARNETT WAYNE SURRY
44% CRAVEN WILSON DUPLIN
41% HALIFAX BRUNSWICK BEAUFORT
37% COLUMBUS RANDOLPH LINCOLN
Comments are closed for this post.
