Parsing Mark Penn's Polling Memo and addressing Hillary Clinton's has-been campaign. Mark, you have tried as hard as you could. I can't believe how you continue to do it. If you want some reasons to escape, consider the following responses to your recent wishful thinking.This post consists of the Penn Memo blockquoted with observations interspersed.
To: Interested PartiesFrom: Mark Penn, Chief StrategistDate: Thursday, March 20, 2008Re: Polling Memo - The Shift to HillaryThere are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided. Seems to me that things have gone my way on this. I have never been for a re-vote. I have been for a negotiated settlement that fairly decides the disposition of these imperfect primaries. My guess is that delegates will be seated and denied a first ballot vote as a penalty and then freed to vote as they wish. The decision will be made prior to the Convention so the point will be moot.But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.
No question that recent events threw Barack for a loop. With the aid of FOX wall to wall vitriol and spins from you guys supported by the MSM, the polls have wavered. Evaporation would be the case if Barack were going to, er, evaporate. In your dreams Mark. Obama is going with the substance of this blog. Read this blog Mark and give me a bit of credit for being right. The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.
You are ignoring the basic reality Mark. If there were no Barack, you might have a point. But Barack is getting rave reviews for his Tuesday speech and plaudits for his two succeeding speeches and if he does not win the nomination there will be hell to pay and you guys will be sitting in the villain's chair. So much for a Hillary victory. The only thing you can do now is try to spoil Barack. I think the electorate and the superdelegates know how to read the leaves. We have learned a great deal about Barack. We have learned more than we need to about Hillary. Sadly, under your tutelage, she has deteriorated without the aid of having HER religious affiliations exposed. It isn't worth it. Don't worry.In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.
These reversals are nothing Mark. You are a pollster and you know better. Barack could start out, as our nominee, 40 points below McCain and still win in November. I think the reality we are dealing with is that either Barack or Hillary can beat McCain, which just makes defeat more bitter. If you really believe Barack is self-destructing, quit and wait four years.
In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.See the comments above. Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.
Mark, take a look at my Electoral College game. I have already given Florida to the Republicans. Obama wins without it. This is as speculative as my game is. I just think I have it more right than you do. The Florida solution will seat the delegation with a little tilt toward HC and no vote the first ballot.
Read my blog, Mark. PPP is even worse. Hillary has a 26 point lead. Barack will end up CLOSE in PA. This will be because he follows my nomination strategy -- if not word for word, at least enough to prevail. We will do PA like Ed Rendell did and have results closer to his than to a major defeat. Ultimately, this Democratic nominating process is meant to select the candidate who will: a) be the best president - the best commander-in-chief, steward of the economy, and exercise leadership; b) defeat John McCain; and c) promote and defend core Democratic principles such as universal health care. On all three fronts, Hillary is the best choice for the Democratic Party.
We disagree. Hillary would have been closer to filling your bill before her conduct of this campaign. Obama has validated his creds even in the face of your kitchen sink and your current unconscionable efforts to use the Wright issue to sway superdelegates. Hillary is the runaway leader on most qualified to be commander-in-chief. In the Ohio exit poll, 60 percent of Democratic primary voters said Hillary was most qualified to be commander-in-chief, compared with 37 percent for Barack Obama. In Texas, she led by 16 points, and in most other states, she led by 10 points or more. She also won among those who said the economy was the most important issue - by 12 points in Ohio, for example. And in the latest CNN poll, more voters say Hillary would do a good job on the economy than Barack Obama or John McCain. Finally, in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads Barack Obama on strong and decisive leadership, managing the government effectively and having a clear plan for solving the country’s problems.
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