With a surge of support from young voters and new voters, and with a broad coalition of Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans, Barack has shown the ability not only to defeat John McCain in November, but to re-draw the political map and challenge decades-old assumptions about "red states" and "blue states." Increased turn-out, enthusiasm and activism for Barack could have an impact on state-level races across the country.
The Hill recently spoke to a number of lawmakers, and reported that:
A Southern House Democrat who faces a difficult reelection this year said Obama “has the potential to bring more folks to the polls and swell the ranks of Democrats.” The lawmaker, who has not endorsed either candidate, declined to speak on the record because Clinton may become the nominee.Lawmakers have begun looking more closely at how the nominee may affect their own reelections or influence races in their states. Sensing this, Obama supporters have pushed their colleagues to consider how Obama and Clinton would impact Democratic candidates in November. “I’ve had quiet conversations with a number of members,” said Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), who has endorsed Obama. “I don’t think there’s any doubt about it, Obama would be more helpful to House candidates virtually everywhere.
A Southern House Democrat who faces a difficult reelection this year said Obama “has the potential to bring more folks to the polls and swell the ranks of Democrats.” The lawmaker, who has not endorsed either candidate, declined to speak on the record because Clinton may become the nominee.
Lawmakers have begun looking more closely at how the nominee may affect their own reelections or influence races in their states. Sensing this, Obama supporters have pushed their colleagues to consider how Obama and Clinton would impact Democratic candidates in November.
“I’ve had quiet conversations with a number of members,” said Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), who has endorsed Obama. “I don’t think there’s any doubt about it, Obama would be more helpful to House candidates virtually everywhere.
Today a diarist from Daily Kos conducted a detailed breakdown of the recent SurveyUSA nationwide match-ups to determine "whether Obama or Clinton on top of the ticket would be better for us in terms of a 'coattail' effect on competitive Senate and House races in 2008." The results:
Out of the 12 states which are likely to have competitive Senate races this fall, Obama performs better than Clinton in match-ups against McCain in 10 (Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota and Virginia) while Hillary does better in 2 (Louisiana and Mississippi).Out of the 39 competitive House races, 27 (69% of total) are ones where Obama performs better than Clinton in match-ups against McCain. In 10 (26% of total) Hillary does better, and in 2 House seats both Democrats do equally well.
Out of the 12 states which are likely to have competitive Senate races this fall, Obama performs better than Clinton in match-ups against McCain in 10 (Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, South Dakota and Virginia) while Hillary does better in 2 (Louisiana and Mississippi).
Out of the 39 competitive House races, 27 (69% of total) are ones where Obama performs better than Clinton in match-ups against McCain. In 10 (26% of total) Hillary does better, and in 2 House seats both Democrats do equally well.
The effects of Barack's coattails may have already been evident in last week's special election in IL-14. Democrat Bill Foster won a special election to fill Dennis Hastert's old Congressional seat in a traditionally Republican district, after Barack endorsed Foster and appeared in a television ad with him. Our local supporters also helped out by canvassing and phonebanking in the days before the election.
In the Foster race, the Chicago Tribune saw signs that an Obama-led ticket could have a big impact in November:
The result also could be an omen for November, when two other Illinois congressional seats are up for grabs following Republican retirements, and Sen. Barack Obama could bring out a huge turnout if he's the Democratic presidential nominee. "It tells me that voters are ready for a change," said Sen. Dick Durbin. "They want new leadership in Washington."
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