Organizing for America | Obama HQ Blogger: Winning in November: Obama Still Stronger Against McCain

Winning in November: Obama Still Stronger Against McCain

By Christopher Hass - Mar 15th, 2008 at 2:07 pm EDT

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New polling in California shows Barack Obama with a 15% lead over John McCain in a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, more than double Hillary Clinton's lead. According to the poll conducted by Rasmussen, Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of the state's voters, McCain by 49%, and Clinton by 47%.

In addition to Democratic strongholds like California, Barack's competitiveness in traditionally "red" states could dramatically shift the electoral map in November. A new SurveyUSA poll shows that Barack would carry the state of North Dakota 46% to 42% against McCain, while Clinton trails McCain 35% to 54% ...

Even the suggestion that a Democrat – any Democrat – can win the presidential vote in historically red-state North Dakota in 2008 is an eyebrow-raiser.

North Dakota has rarely been blue on the election map. Since statehood, North Dakotans have favored the Democratic presidential candidate only five times: Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

A comprehensive, nation-wide SurveyUSA poll shows Barack Obama defeating John McCain in a hypothetical match-up by a margin of 280 electoral votes to 256. Obama carries 24 states plus the District of Columbia. In Nebraska, which divides its electoral votes based on congressional districts, McCain wins three electoral votes while Obama wins two.

Of the states which McCain is currently predicted to carry, the race is extremely close in Texas (47%-46%), Florida (47%-45%), North Carolina (47%-45%) and South Carolina (48%-45%). And with Barack as the Democratic candidate, nearly every state west of the Mississippi could be in play:

Barack performs especially strong in states were he has actively campaigned already this year:

In Iowa, Obama leads McCain by 17 points and Clinton trails McCain by 9 points, an incredible 26 point swing. In Virginia Obama leads by 6 points, while Clinton trails McCain 45%-48%.
In New York, Obama leads McCain by 21%, almost double Clinton’s lead of 11%.
A SurveyUSA poll of Wisconsin from earlier in the week shows Obama again leading McCain by double-digits, while McCain beats Hillary Clinton 49% to 42%.
Obama also outperforms Clinton in recent state polls of New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia.
In Pennsylvania, a state were Barack has yet to actively campaign, he already holds a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain, while McCain edges out Hillary Clinton in a close race.
Obama also leads in Oregon and the important state of Michigan.

With a surge of support from young voters and new voters, and with a broad coalition of Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans, Barack Obama has emerged as the strongest general election candidate.

According to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll:

In the past two months, Senator Barack Obama has built a commanding coalition among Democratic voters ... and is now viewed by most Democrats as the candidate best able to defeat Senator John McCain.

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