It's too early to call an Obama presidency a sure thing, but as of October 14th the polls look good for a big win by Democrats in November. So, in the best tradition of liberal arrogance, I'll speculate here on the makeup of an Obama cabinet. See this Huffington Post article for another analysis of this subject, although my conclusions differ somewhat from the author's.
Here are what I think the key characteristics of an Obama cabinet will be:
Inclusion of three or four moderate Republicans. This would be a bold "post-partisan" move by Obama. Look for these to be people who challenged the Bush administration rather than administration holdovers. Really, the only cabinet-level holdover possible would be Gates at Defense and he's made it clear that he isn't really looking to continue.
Focus on intellectual ability and topical expertise. Obama needs his cabinet to be a source of creative ideas to confront the country's numerous problems. Old-school politicians will be less common. This is why I think some widely-mentioned names (such as Bill Richardson or John Kerry for State) won't end up being chosen.
Geographic, gender, and racial diversity. Presidents have taken to using cabinet posts to show that they care about particular constituencies. Diversity will be a priority for Obama. Additionally, there are some quirks associated with specific posts. For example, the Secretary of the Interior is almost always a westerner.
Here is some speculation about specific cabinet posts:
Secretary of the Treasury:
Arguably, this is the most important job given the ongoing financial crisis. Some pundits are touting Warren Buffett, the financial genius and philanthropist who is the richest man in the U.S. Buffett is a big Obama supporter and he would have instant credibility with world financial markets, but I don't know that he is interested in such a public role. He has traditionally been somewhat reclusive.
I think it is more likely that Sheila Bair, the current Chairman of the FDIC, will be chosen. Bair, the second-most powerful woman in the world, has assumed a major role in managing the U.S. economy. This role will become even more important given the recent nationalization of major banks. While current Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's handling of the crisis has been somewhat erratic (he originally said the government would never buy equity in banks), Bair's conduct has been praised. Both parties want to increase the amount of deposit insurance the FDIC provides. She would have bipartisan credibility; witness this positive article in the hyper-conservative National Review.
Secretary of Education:
Obama needs creative ideas on education issues. He needs to further reform while working through the partisan, ideological mess that Secretary Spellings has created. He has mentioned student loans on several occasions in connection with the ongoing credit crisis. His wife, Michelle, worked in student affairs at the University of Chicago. He himself was a professor.
What does all this add up to? A surprise pick. You heard it here first: Amy Gutmann at Education. The current President of the University of Pennsylvania is a brilliant political scientist, expert on student loan issues, and has thoughtful ideas about overcoming bitter ideological disputes in education today. Defense Secretary Gates has shown that university presidents can make the transition to cabinet posts successfully . . . how about it, Amy?
If Obama wants a more conventional choice, look to him to tap George Miller, Chairman of the congressional Committee on Education and Labor.
Secretary of Commerce:
I'm going to throw out a name that to my knowledge has never been mentioned in discussions of an Obama cabinet: Jonathan Schwartz, CEO of Sun Microsystems. Schwartz is an expert on the economics of social networking (a driving force behing Obama's presidential bid) and favors increased corporate transparency. I think he would have credibility both as a regulator and an agent for economic change. I have no idea if he would be interested in the post, so consider this the start of the Draft Schwartz movement.
Actually, this is just an example of the kind of person I think Obama will consider: youngish IT moguls or other CEOs with fresh ideas about the economy. If Obama wants a more conventional pick, he might look to Pennsylvania Governor and football fan Ed Rendell, whose name is also being tossed around for Transportation and HUD.
Secretary of Defense:
Robert Gates is looking to retire, so I don't think a Bush holdover is likely here despite the speculation of some pundits. Wesley Clark would be extremely popular with Democrats, but he was on active duty too recently to provide credible "civilian" oversight. Additionally, Clark has made some impolitic comments this year. Colin Powell appeals to moderates, but I don't think he wants the job and his selection would infuriate those who hold him complicit in Bush's Iraq policy.
More recent speculation has centered on Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and I think that choice is most likely. Hagel is a decorated Vietnam veteran who has the perspective of an enlisted man, not warmongering generals. He opposed Bush's Iraq policy and holds relatively moderate views. And Obama would score huge bipartisanship points by giving the powerful Defense post to a Republican.
I'll speculate more on the cabinet, write more about the election, and link to more interesting articles in future posts.
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