Here is what I think will happen as of this writing, from here to the Democratic convention in August.
To begin with, I forecast that Sen. Obama is MORE LIKELY to become the democratic nominee than Sen. Hillary Clinton. His chances are above 50 percent, although I am not ready to predict the exact probability. Challenging as the nomination process is, though, I am confident in predicting, with 100 percent certainty, that if Obama comes out on top, he will win the presidency. There is not doubt in my mind about that.
The second point of importance is that this nomination race will go on until the very end, and superdelegates are likely to play a more important role than in the past. I would not be terribly surprised if the ultimate outcome was decided at the convention itself, so fasten your seatbelts, because we have a long ride ahead of us.
Hillary will win the Nevada caucus (Jan. 20). We have a large organization there, but she is better known, has the support of the democratic establishment, and the Obama campaign has been putting less effort into that state than in others. (A telling sign of this was that he made a visit to California earlier this week, right in the heat of the Nevada contest.) He has the support of the Culinary Workers' Union, but union members are under no obligation to follow the leadership's recommendation. This RELATIVE lack of involvement by the campaign may be the result of a strategy - which I consider wise - to emphasize other states. The campaign, like those of the oppostion, has to pick its battles.
Obama will score a commanding win in South Carolina (Jan. 26), adding momentum to his campaign as he enters the Feb. 5 contests. Black voters have been buoyed by his support amongst whites in Iowa; a loss in Nevada, which has a high Latino population, will probably mean less to them as they examine Obama's electability. Blacks' chief concern in assessing Obama's viability as a nominee concerns the white vote.
On Feb. 5th, and going forward, Obama is likely to score many victories in heavily black southern states like Georgia (Feb. 5), where he has strong support and also in "red" states, where his organization is very strong and where he has received some key superdelegate endorsements. The other reason for his good performance in red states is because Hillary attracts fewer independents and republicans. However, we may face another challenge in McCain, who also has crossover appeal, albeit to a lesser extent than Our Candidate (But, as a nominee, McCain will be the hardest republican to beat because he is also an independent-minded maverick; however, the similarities end there).
Hillary is generally stronger in the large states and the Southwest, whereas Obama is strongest in the interior and the South. I predict that we will win a larger number of relatively smaller states; added together, they are likely to secure our victory.
Here are some thoughts on a few other states:
--In the South, Alabama (Feb. 5) and Tennessee (Feb. 5) are likely to be ours.--We could very well win Kansas (Feb. 5), where a lot of state legislators have endorsed Obama (politicians being opportunists, these endorsements likely reflect the feeling among that state's democrats).--We may also win Minnesota (Feb. 5), Colorado (Feb. 5), Oregon (May 20), South Dakota (June. 3), Wisconsin (Feb. 19), Alaska (Feb. 5), D.C. (Feb. 12), Hawaii (Feb. 19) and, of course, Illinois (Feb. 5), by a mile.--California, being a Feb. 5th state, is likely to go to Hillary in general, but since that state's delegates are allotted in proportion to a candidate's win, we will gain much because we will swipe a significant number of delegates and SUPERdelegates who have endorsed Obama. Albeit to a lesser extent than California, we will also win the backing of some delegates in New York (Feb. 5), which also apportions its delegates in proportion to the vote.--I have no idea or opinion on what will happen in Texas (March 4), with its 228 delegates; we will know more in the next few weeks.--Hillary win will New Jersey (Feb. 5) and Pennsylvania (April 22), although her margin of victory in the former will be embarrassingly small.--Finally, I predict that we will do very well in New England. States like Massachusetts (Feb. 5) and Vermont (March 4) are likely to go Obama's way.
--In the South, Alabama (Feb. 5) and Tennessee (Feb. 5) are likely to be ours.
--We could very well win Kansas (Feb. 5), where a lot of state legislators have endorsed Obama (politicians being opportunists, these endorsements likely reflect the feeling among that state's democrats).
--We may also win Minnesota (Feb. 5), Colorado (Feb. 5), Oregon (May 20), South Dakota (June. 3), Wisconsin (Feb. 19), Alaska (Feb. 5), D.C. (Feb. 12), Hawaii (Feb. 19) and, of course, Illinois (Feb. 5), by a mile.
--California, being a Feb. 5th state, is likely to go to Hillary in general, but since that state's delegates are allotted in proportion to a candidate's win, we will gain much because we will swipe a significant number of delegates and SUPERdelegates who have endorsed Obama. Albeit to a lesser extent than California, we will also win the backing of some delegates in New York (Feb. 5), which also apportions its delegates in proportion to the vote.
--I have no idea or opinion on what will happen in Texas (March 4), with its 228 delegates; we will know more in the next few weeks.
--Hillary win will New Jersey (Feb. 5) and Pennsylvania (April 22), although her margin of victory in the former will be embarrassingly small.
--Finally, I predict that we will do very well in New England. States like Massachusetts (Feb. 5) and Vermont (March 4) are likely to go Obama's way.
So what do the rest of you think?
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