FL may be the key to all this. I have a theory. The Southern Strategy.
Attack McCain hard in FL and it will have an effect on the rest of the swing states. Why? B/c FL is the biggest swing state. One with a mix of the perfect McCain voter, the southern cultural conservative and the senior voters. Rudy Giuliani turf. But they despite that, it is still a chasable huge swing state. With a LOT of young people and elderly. Start changing the race in FL and watch the effect on other swing states, esp southern ones like NC, VA, maybe even OH as they watch the battle unfold.
And, somewhat related, here's a chart of the electoral map:
That basically confirms what Chuck Todd has been saying. That the Rick Warren fiasco only helped McCain shore up with GOP base and Obama didn't lose any Dems. And in fact, he has room to go up as he consolidates the Dem base. Then the final stretch will be Indies and swing states, which, if Obama plays his cards right he is leaning on those now.
Make McCain sweat in FL -- elderly, jewish vote, latinos, offshore drilling, hell, Jeb Bush! -- and it will drive down his #s in other swing states.
UPDATE:
This just in...
FL-Pres (Aug 21 ARG)
McCain (R) 47%, Obama (D) 46%
1 point ballgame in FL.
If we seriously threaten to flip it, that is a huge huge distraction for McCain... Or an outright win for Obama in the EC.
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