I thought it would be apropos to start this blog explaining why I've decided to do this, why I've decided to volunteer and make phone calls for Barack Obama, and why I'm an Obama supporter in general. Let me start by saying that I am among the 70% of Democrats who believe that either one of our current candidates would make a good President. Heck, I thought Biden and Dodd would have been excellent as well, and I was an ardent Edwards supporter for a long time. But Obama closed the deal with me the night of the Iowa caucus, and he has managed to strengthen my support for him each step of the way since then. I believe strongly that, while we have had a number of fine candidates, he is the best candidate. This post is about why I believe that is so.
Let me eliminate a couple of non-reasons before I get to the real clincher for me. First of all, it's not about electability. I believe that John McCain is vulnerable and that either candidate will likely beat him. Second, I'm not supporting Obama because I'm pissed at the Clintons for their politics-as-usual unsavory tactics between Iowa and South Carolina. Don't get me wrong; I am pissed. Pissed enough that I would not vote for her in the primary if I had a credible alternative (which I do). But not nearly pissed enough to actively campaign against her in the primary and certainly not pissed enough that I wouldn't support her in the general election. Third, this isn't about policy for me. In fact, I believe that Clinton's healthcare plan is significantly better that Obama's. But Obama's policy is still very good, and I am persuaded by Nick Beaudrot that foreign policy matters more because, unlike in domestic policy, the President's power is relatively unchecked by Congress (as we have discovered much to our distress over the past few years). Obama is much stronger on foreign policy that Clinton, in my view. But that's not why I'm supporting him either.
I'm supporting Barack Obama because he fits the historic moment in a critical way. Every once in a while, maybe a couple of times in a century, there is a massive sea change in American politics that changes the direction of the country for decades to come. It happened in the 1930's with the election of Franklin Roosevelt and it happened in the 1980s with the election of Ronald Reagan. We are at one of those moments. And so, for reasons that have very little to do with experience or policies, the candidate really matters. We need somebody who can take hold of this historic moment and make the most of it. We need somebody who can not just win the policy debates but change the language and the frames of the debates. We need somebody who can hit the reset button on American political discourse. And the evidence is that Barack Obama can and Hillary Clinton can't.
Again, this is not to say that Hillary wouldn't be a good president. I believe that she would. But there is no evidence that she would be a transformative president. Ezra Klein, without picking sides, does the most eloquent and insightful job of anyone I have seen in making this point. Hillary's strengths (which are considerable) are about her superiority as a manager. She, even moreso than her husband, is superb at working the existing system. But she shows no capacity and little inclination to inspire the sort of popular groundswell that is necessary to substantially change the system and the power structures behind it. And that is possible. Remember, the conservative revolution that started with the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and culminated 14 years later with the Republican takeover of Congress absolutely did change the way our political system works in pretty fundamental ways. Enough so that it was Bill Clinton, the most talented and persuasive politician that Democrats had, who declared that the era of big government was over. Conservatives have completely dictated the battleground for 27 years now. The best that even Bill Clinton could do was hold the line in most areas and deliver some (important) tactical victories in a handful of (critical) areas. The lesson some have learned from that 27-year experience is that the system is unchangeable, and that the best we can do is find an in-fighter who has proven to be strong gladiator in the arena in which we are forced to fight. If that's the lesson that you learned from the conservative Revolution, then Hillary is your candidate for sure. But the real lesson, I think, is that American political discoursecan shift dramatically and fundamentally, that once it shifts it is stable in its new position for a very long time, and that therefore taking maximum advantage of a rare inflection point is critical for long-term progress.
Barack Obama is bringing out new voters in record numbers. Yes, Clinton is also driving turnout very well, but the difference is that she is driving turnout of reliable Democrats while he is doing the same but also bringing in independents and Republicans who normally don't vote for a Democratic candidate and young people who normally don't vote for anyone. I believe that people will someday speak of "Obama Republicans" in the way that they speak of "Reagan Democrats," and I also believe that he--and only he--has the capacity to inspire and build a whole new generation of activist, informed, and progressive young Americans. Clinton's supporters will likely turn out for the nominee, whoever that is, and they will also likely vote Democratic down the entire ticket. In contrast, I don't believe that the new voters Barack Obama is bringing out will transfer to Hillary if she is the nominee. They are specific to his appeal. If Hillary is the nominee, she will likely win anyway because of the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans and because she is frankly a much better candidate than John McCain. But she won't inspire the sort of shift in the terrain that will give reformers the strong hand that they will need to win the policy battles ahead. And she won't insire another Peace Corps generation the way that President Kennedy did (or a generation of Young Republicans the way that Reagan did).
I'm not worried about the 2008 election. I'm worried about the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections. More importantly, I'm worried about changing the national conversation so that the many people who have voted against their own economic and social well-interests for decades can finally given a narrative that makes sense to them by the leaders who actually want to help them. And that's why I support Barack Obama.
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