The United Nations deadline to figure out the future of Kosovo has come to an end on December 10. The European Union has failed to produce an agreement. So, the question now is, what happens next? As a note, you may want to read Dr. Mark Elrod’s Countdown on Kosovo.
After months of negotiations, the European Union, U.S., and Russia have failed to break the deadlock between the Albanians and the Serbians over Kosovo, which is a province in Serbia. The United Nations has been administering Kosovo, since the 1999 NATO campaign. I describe this in more detail in my post, The Future of Kosovo. The positions of the two sides clash considerably. The Albanians, who are the ethnic majority, want an independent Kosovo, while the Serbians are greatly against this idea due to its historical significance, which I describe in my other post, The Kosovo Question. Longtime Serbian ally, Russia, is against independence and will accept an agreement, in which, all sides agree, while the United States, Great Britain, France, and others have voiced support for independence.
Currently, Kosovar Albanians are planning to declare independence before next May. Great Britain, Germany, France, and Italy have indicated it will recognize an independent Kosovo. Cyprus has voiced for a U.N. resolution before any call for independence is declared. Serbian President Boris Tadic plans to ask the U.N. Security Council for the International Court of Justice to examine the case.
Kosovo government spokesman Skender Hyseni has stated that its independence is, "not an issue of if but when." Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic stated that force will not be used. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave a warning against any self-proclaimed independence in Kosovo stating it may cause "ethnic rifts" and "rekindle violence." Tensions among the ethnic groups are high and NATO has stated it will keep 16,000 troops in Kosovo to curb potential violence.
So, what could happen? Firstly, it seems that the negotiators did not place enough emphasis on the importance of reaching an agreement by the deadline - considering the pressure of the time-factor applied by the Kosovar Albanians. I felt the Bush Administration should have considered this issue in the rank of top priority. Since President Bill Clinton stressed the importance of leading a NATO campaign into Kosovo in 1999, I feel the U.S. should have place greater priority in its future status. I feel it is better to deal with this issue presently than to face it again down the road. In the manner that these negotiations were proceeded, the latter was chosen. In my opinion, I think the U.N. should not leave the final decision up to fate. It should be further discussed with a particular plan issued (which I will discuss shortly), if a final agreement cannot be reached. If not, I fear a great outbreak of violence especially when NATO forces leave the region. As I have written in my two posts, the Serb populace view Kosovo with strong historical significance and an important part of their heritage. It does not seem that this significance was addressed enough in the negotiations. In other words, the concerns of both the Albanians and the Serbs should be seriously discussed before any decision is made.
What do you think is the best solution? In my opinion, the partition plan seems to be the right path for diplomatic negotiation. In the areas where the Serb population is strongest in the north, it should remain a part of Serbia, while the other areas with a large Albanian population should be granted independence. As I believe with any plan, it should have range of flexibility. A while ago, this idea was discussed without any success. I read that one of the main concerns was the Serbian historical sites that would be located in an "Albanian Kosovo." Besides this point, I am not sure why it failed? It seemed to be the best offer for both sides to gain or maintain some parts of Kosovo. BBC News displays an excellent map of the ethnic makeup of Kosovo.
The future of Kosovo will matter a great deal to the region’s stability and the international community. I sincerely hope that the matter will be addressed properly, although it almost seems too late. As I have stated above, this issue should be addressed with the best ability toward finding the best possible solution.
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