I'm not sure the French-Egyptian plan will hold unless a full lifting of the economic blockade (while excluding arms shipments) is also implemented. I think the conflict (this and the larger conflict) can be settled without a single drop of blood being shed if these steps were followed:
Step 1:
Israel announces a unilateral, partial, temporary week-long truce and an end to the blockade, but will reserve the right to bomb Qassam teams that are on the road or in the act. No buildings will be bombed. Full humanitarian supplies go in.
Step 2:
Next, through Syrian and or Egyptian intermediaries, Israel negotiates an 18-month truce with Hamas and Fatah to allow time to negotiate a final deal. Hamas takes full responsibility of stopping rocket attacks from Gaza and returning the IDF soldier. Israel ends overflights, drone flights, and control of borders and sea access - handing it all over to Abbas' PA. Any rocket that is launched from Gaza would result in a "fine" that is deducted from the PA's treasury. Israel withdraws its troops.
Step 3:
Fatah negotiates with Hamas' political wing to figure out how to unify - with some gesture that will be an acknowledgment that Hamas won elections in 2006. Failing agreement, there would be elections within 6 months. This would come after the Israeli elections, so there would be pressure to not elect hardliners which is likely to result in hardliners winning on the other side. This would proceed simultaneously with PA negotiations with Israel (and including Arab states as needed) that work on some amalgam of the Taba Plan, the Arab Peace Initiative and Geneva Accord. Both sides would determine the composition of a bipartisan committee of academics and psychologists that will, after a final deal is signed, determine how history textbooks should describe the conflict for the children of both nations. Standards on what is "acceptable dialogue" on TV and in newspapers may also be suggested, but with some deference to free speech. The Syrian track on Golan will continue in parallel, and a US-Iran-Lebanon-Hezbollah dialogue that will result in absorption of Hezbollah into the Lebanese army if Golan and Palestine are resolved.
Step 4:
Israel and the PA announce they will accept land formulas based on the Geneva Accord or some variation of it, based on the negotiations in Step 3. The refugee return level to Israel hasn't been specified. It should offer approximately the 10% (who still wish to live in a Jewish-majority Israeli state) of the 4 million refugees the right to do so, with priority given to first and second generation refugees. Unless the "return" to Israel proper is significant enough, about 400,000, it will not be a stable equilibrium and may allow Hamas and other extremist groups to continue underground on the emotional "right of return" angle. The rest of the 90% of refugees would be resettled in Palestine, and receive some compensation from US, EU and Israel for helping Israel remain mostly Jewish. The same level of compensation will be paid by Arab countries to the descendants of Jewish refugees from Arab lands who left their homes in the 1940s (or later, under duress). If property compensation formulas can be worked out as well, great. Refugees from both sides should be allowed to visit their old homes if they wish, for some nostalgia/closure. Israel would be free to financially incentivize Israeli Arabs to move to Palestine, but they'd be under no obligation to go. Both sides would need to ratify the agreements with a referendum in each territory within six months of signing. The refugee diaspora should also be part of the Pal referendum, to declaw the rejectionists.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_Accord (overview)
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=349832 (Haaretz's special section and links)
http://www.geneva-accord.org/mainmenu/geneva-initiativeisrael-palestine-permanent-borders (final status maps after land swaps)
I believe something like this will be the eventual deal, even if it isn't signed next year. It may take another 10 - but it has to be generous enough to be stable. Otherwise we'll be left with a one state problem that Olmert, despite his many faults, well anticipated: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/929439.html
The first two steps can be easily finished in a week and the other two within six months of intense activity. The power lies with Obama to push this kind of a solution by out-smarting those in our establishment that may resist such a plan. Will he? No idea. But he could make a final deal happen by 2010 if he's smart about it. He'd win a Nobel by 2011 and get re-elected by 2012. Unless the economy's still in a recession!
I'd be interested in everyone's feedback and comments.
Mark
Comments are closed for this post.
