One year ago, Hillary Clinton was probably thinking that Denver 2008 was going to be her moment.
She was probably right, even in the absence of securing the right to lead the Democratic ticket in November.
It would appear by all accounts that the success of Barack Obama in November is going to hinge on what HRC says in the Pepsi Center in Denver on Tuesday night. In fact, it could be argued that until she makes that speech, Hillary Rodham Clinton is the most important person associated with the DNC right now.
Polling data bears this out.
This started out as a good week for John McCain. The Russia-Georgia crisis worked to his advantage, particularly in light of Barack Obama's Hawaiian vacation. His conversation with Rick Warren at Saddleback Church probably gave the Republican party's fundamentalist base enough information to assure them that Senator McCain supports the issues they are most concerned about. And there is some evidence of "Obama fatigue" in both the media and among undecided voters.
The good news (for Obama supporters) is that that many of of those undecided voters are Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries and who have yet to be prodded by the Clintons to get behind Obama.
MSNBC's First Read reports:
Even after she ended her presidential bid back in June, perhaps we should have guessed that this presidential contest (or at least the convention) was still going to be about the Clintons. And our new NBC/WSJ poll is the latest evidence to back this up. In the survey, Obama leads McCain by three points, 45%-42%, which is down from his six-point advantage last month. Our pollsters identified a few factors behind the tightening race -- the Russia-Georgia conflict, McCain's negative ads, and lingering doubts about Obama -- but the biggest reason why this race remains close in this Dem-leaning political environment is because of Obama's inability to close the deal with some of Clinton's supporters. According to the poll, 52% of them say they will vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee, but 21% are backing McCain and an additional 27% are either undecided or want to vote for someone else. For that reason, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says Clinton's convention speech on Tuesday, as well as when her name is put in nomination, will be significant. "The Democratic convention is more than a coronation," Hart explains. "It is an event where the words of Hillary Clinton are probably going to be exceptionally important."
The dilemma for HRC is that she has to sincerely and convincingly rally her troops to get behind Obama if she ever wants to run for president again. Anything less would be seen by the Democratic base (liberals and African-Americans) as a sell-out designed to promote her own interests of those of the party.
My guess is that she will make the speech and then hit the trail hard for Obama in swing states, particularly with white, working-class voters. I don't think it can be assumed that Bill Clinton will do the same thing.
There will inevitably come a time when Bill and Hillary Clinton don't suck the air out of a room when they step into it and will cease to be the center of the Democratic Party universe.
That time certainly won't come before Tuesday night but it has to come before Wednesday morning if Democrats hope to make victory in November a reality.
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