If you're like most Americans, you probably haven't thought about Kosovo in quite awhile.
But it's still there and it's still in the Balkans.
Matthew posted this story from the BBC on this forum the other day but there has been little coverage of Kosovo in the American media. This is probably due to the fact that Americans usually think of Balkan crises as European problems. Y
ou may recall that Kosovo is the largely Albanian Muslim republic of Serbia that the United Nations declared to be an internationally-protected region in June 1999 following a four-month air war between NATO countries and Serbia.
Unfortunately, while the Serb army was soundly defeated and forced to withdraw from Kosovo, the region's political future was left unresolved. But the clock is now ticking on efforts to find a permanent answer to the Kosovo question.
Kosovo is about the size of Connecticut and has a population of approximately two million. As opposed to mostly Christian (Orthodox) Serbia, most of Kosovo’s citizens are Muslims. The newly-elected government of Kosovo has promised to declare independence by November 28 and this presents a significant problem for the international community.
Shortly after the withdraw of the Serb army from Kosovo in 1999, the Western powers have been trying to find a negotiated solution would allow Kosovars to exercise autonomy without further damaging Serbia’s sovereignty. At this point, it doesn’t look like the two objectives can be met.
The problem rests in part with the fact that Kosovo has strong cultural and historical significance to many Serbs. In addition to these symbolic attachments, about five percent of Kosovo's population is Serbian and the region's secession from Serbia would result in the loss of about twelve percent of Serbia’s territory.
Likewise, Kosovo’s independence without Serbian acquiescence would most likely be rejected by Russia at the United Nations and may actually be a breach of international law. The Serbian government has suggested a “one state, two governments” solution that would give Kosovo independence in all political areas but foreign policy defense. This idea has been rejected by the Kosovars who now view complete separation from Serbia as the only reasonable solution.
In spite of these problems, the United States, Great Britain and France all favor independence for Kosovo but are still encouraging the Kosovars to wait. But all three nations will probably recognize Kosovo as a new state if the Kosovars declare independence as promised on November 28 or on December 10, 2007, the deadline for an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia as set by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
The contact group that has been negotiating a solution to the Kosovo problem has promised that UN peacekeepers will remain in the region to ensure a peaceful transition to the next phase in Kosovo’s history (whatever that may be) and protection of the rights of Serbs living inside Kosovo.
I think the primary thing to watch for with respect to Kosovo is the precedent it sets rather than the danger it poses to the international community. Serbia has been too weakened both economically and militarily to risk another war with the West over Kosovo and it doesn't seem like an issue that the Russians are willing to go to war over either.
In a larger context, the Russians worry that an independent Kosovo would give support to other secessionist movements clamoring for autonomy or independence other regions such as Chechnya or even Kurdistan.
On any given day, American relations with Russia are complicated but they will become even more complicated by the end of the year if we find ourselves polarized on the question of Kosovo's future.
The Financial Times has a good analysis of the current crisis here and The Guardian presents a historical overview of the Kosovo question here.
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