Update for October 31, 4 days to Election Day.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN! WHAT SCARES YOU THE MOST?
This was Obama's best week yet in the Chance for Change model, with Barack winning all 10,000 simulated elections with an expected vote total of 366, the highest ever. The fewest votes Barack received in any election was 294, 24 more than the 270 needed to win. The most was 431. But we're not ready to relax yet.
We entered poll results from 45 states this week, of which ten materially affected the outcome. Of these, six were favorable to Obama.
In one of the biggest surprises this week, polls show the race becoming competitive in McCain's home state of Arizona. McCain had a 21 point lead last week, but only a single point lead this week. It does not look like an outlier. This red, red state is now a battleground. Obama is campaigning there, and the Republicans are running robocalls. Imagine that. We think Arizona will likely go for its favorite son, but wouldn't it be delicious?
Obama's one-point lead in Florida last week has grown to four points this week. This crucial state has volleyed back and forth all season but Obama seems to have built a durable lead, either tied or ahead in all of the last twelve polls, leading by as much as seven. Remember, if McCain loses Florida or Ohio, there is almost no possible path to 270 votes.
Obama led by a single point last week in Georgia but trails by three this week. Georgia has had record turnout in the early vote, with more than 1.5 million Georgians casting their ballots as of this week. By most accounts, Democrats have dominated the early voters. If Georgia falls to Obama, it could turn out to be a very long night for the McCain camp.
Indiana remains a squeaker. Obama's four point lead last week evaporated; now the Hoosier state is dead even at 47 all.
Obama had a four point lead in Montana last week but trails by three this week. It's only three votes, but could be highly symbolic. Not as delicious as Arizona, but still sweet.
McCain has hopes for New Hampshire, the state that revived his comatose primary campaign. McCain trailed by one point last week, but trails by eleven in this week's poll. This one is diverging and looks pretty solid for Obama.
New Mexico was tied last week, but Obama has opened up a 17 point lead. This is probably bigger than the actual lead, but it's not out of the question. Another poll this week has him up by ten.
North Carolina will be another state to watch early on election night. Obama trailed by two in last week's poll, but is up by two this week. They've been polling the heck out of the Tarheel state this week, but most of the polls have Obama in the lead.
Obama is hanging onto the lead in our home state of Ohio, up by four this week, down from a twelve point lead last week. It's still close in Ohio, but Obama leads by three to nine points in every poll taken since October 23. That's ten straight polls.
Finally, the surprise development of the election, the movement of the Commonwealth of Virginia from a reliable Republican stronghold to blue-state status appears to be complete. McCain was down by two last week but trails by nine in this week's poll. In what is becoming a familiar pattern, Obama has led in every poll since October 2 - that's 24 straight polls.
We also entered results from 28 senate races this week, of which five showed significant movement. The race in Georgia has opened up a bit, with incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss improving his lead over challenger Jim Martin from two points to five. A recent poll in Louisiana shows incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu's lead over John Kennedy shrinking from ten points last week to a single point this week. It's highly doubtful that the race is actually this close, since other recent polls show Landrieu up ten to twenty points - and the poll showing her up by one was conducted on behalf of the Kennedy campaign. Minnesota continues to entertain, with Al Franken opening up a five point lead over incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. The race in Mississippi between Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Ronnie Musgrove has taken a turn in Wicker's direction. Wicker's one point lead last week has swollen to eleven. In what is becoming one of the ugliest senate campaigns in the country, North Carolina Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole has fallen behind her Democratic challenger Kay Hagan by six points, after trailing last week by one. Dole ran an ad this week that implied that Kay Hagan, a former Sunday school teacher and Presbyterian church elder, is in fact an atheist. Hagan responded by accusing Dole of "bearing false witness against a fellow Christian." While we've been keeping our eye on the main event, we've forgotten all the entertaining sideshows going on in the senate races. It's a nice break.
The upshot is, there's a much better chance that the Democrats will achieve a 57 seat majority, but less of a chance that they'll get 60 seats.
There are ten states in our model that qualify as battlegrounds, that is, neither candidate has at least a 90% chance of victory in that state. They include Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, among others. We assigned all the rest of the states to the candidate leading in each, and then assigned all the battleground states to McCain. In this scenario, Obama wins with 286 electoral votes. And that's without Ohio or Florida. McCain has to climb a very steep hill indeed.
This is the last edition of Chance for Change. But it's not the last you'll hear from our election predictor.
We plan to live blog on the night of the election from amid our friends at the local chapter of Drinking Liberally. We'll post updates to our projection as the states are called. We'll call special attention to the battleground states, as well as any non-battleground state that goes to the trailing candidate. We'll keep at it until the election is called or we drop. If you decide to follow along, feel free to add your comments.
Until then!
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Here are the numbers:
Likelihood of an Obama victory: >99.99%
Expected number of electoral votes: 366
Major Changes:
Last Week This Week
D R D R
Arizona (10 votes): 38% 59% 47% 48%
Florida (27 votes): 48% 47% 51% 47%
Georgia (15 votes): 48% 47% 44% 47%
Indiana (11 votes): 49% 45% 47% 47%
Montana (3 votes): 44% 40% 46% 49%
New Hampshire (4 votes): 47% 46% 53% 42%
New Mexico (5 votes): 46% 46% 58% 41%
North Carolina (15 votes): 48% 50% 50% 48%
Ohio (20 votes): 53% 41% 51% 47%
Virginia (13 votes): 47% 45% 53% 44%
Senate:
90% likelihood of winning 57 seats (No Change)
50% likelihood of winning 58 seats (No Change)
10% likelihood of winning 59 seats (-1)
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