Update for October 24, 11 days to Election Day.
HOLDING STEADY - HOLDING MY BREATH
Our model is still predicting an Obama win. Out of 10,000 simulated elections based on the latest state-by-state polls, Obama won all 10,000. The fewest number of electoral votes he garnered was 290, with a median of 351 and a maximum of 430. A comfortable margin. So, why aren't we comfortable?
Maybe because there's so much at stake. Perhaps it's because the last two elections were so close, and yet fell short. Or maybe it's because McCain is really starting to scare us (Palin crossed that line weeks ago).
We entered new poll results from 31 states, of which ten had an impact on the election. Five moved in Obama's direction, and five moved in McCain's direction. But all states are not created equal...
Florida continues to shuttle back and forth between Obama and McCain. Our poll from last week put McCain ahead, 49% to 47%, while this week's poll has Obama up by one, 48% to 47%. That was enough to nearly double Barack's chances, from 32% to 60%.
In an interesting twist, our poll for Georgia has Obama ahead by one. McCain led by six last week. Remember that this state was once considered competitive, but then fell off the battleground list. Should we trust this result? Perhaps not. Other polls taken during the same period have McCain up by a margin ranging from two to six points. So this is probably an outlier.
The reliable Republican stronghold of Indiana is showing signs of edging back into the tossup category. Our poll this week has Obama up by four points, compared with a five-point deficit last week. There is no scenario for John McCain to win that doesn't include Florida, Ohio, and Indiana. I think we can expect to see some campaign stops for the McCain campaign in this usually reliably red state.
Obama had a wide lead last week in Missouri, made all the more believable by the huge crowds he drew in St. Louis and Kansas City. But this week it's back on the tossup list, with both candidates drawing 48% of the poll responses. This is another case of conflicting polls. Others polls from the same period have results ranging from a one-point McCain lead to a six-point Obama lead. So our man probably still holds the advantage.
Montana seems to be back in play. Our poll this week shows Obama ahead by four, up from a five-point deficit last week. In what seems to be a theme, we have conflicting results in this state too, with other polls from the same period showing McCain in the lead by four to five points.
New Hampshire is another state with some hinkiness in the numbers. We used a Zogby poll of 466 likely voters showing Obama up by one. But other polls show Obama up by four to five points. This one still looks good for Obama.
You'll see the campaigns cross paths in New Mexico. While every poll for the last six weeks has shown Obama ahead, this week we have a poll showing the race tied at 46 all. We really believe that Obama is still well ahead of McCain in New Mexico, but this poll gives McCain new hope for these five votes.
North Carolina has been crazy all season and this week continues the trend. Our poll this week has McCain up by two, the first poll in two weeks showing a clear lead for McCain.
Obama's lead in Virginia may be softening, with this week's poll showing him up by just two points. But, guess what? Other recent polls show him with a four- to ten-point lead.
All of these are of secondary importance compared with the poll in Ohio showing Obama leading, 53% to 41%. And there are other polls showing Obama up in our Buckeye state. Obama can win without Ohio, but McCain cannot. As long as Ohio is firmly in the Obama column, the election is his.
The Senate results this week are unremarkable. There's a slight shift in the race in Alaska, as Ted Stevens' corruption trial goes into its final stages. Kay Hagan still clings to a slight edge over Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina. Neither of these affect our projection.
Our lates poll results leave twelve states in doubt, and Ohio is not among them. If we award all twelve to McCain, and the rest of the states to the current leader in each, Obama wins with 280 votes, same as last week. There are just no good paths to a McCain victory.
Furthermore, the tightening in the figures at the national level seems to have reversed itself. Obama is back up in most of the national tracking polls. Every day that passes with no movement toward McCain puts him deeper in a hole.
We're glad to see that more Republicans are facing up to the inevitable, or reacting to John McCain's true nature, or giving in to the very natural, very healthy revulsion to Sarah Palin, and endorsing Obama for President. The precriminations have begun.
We've always said that presidential politics is the highest form of entertainment, and the autoimmune reaction that is eating the McCain campaign from the inside out is very entertaining, indeed.
So, we can relax, right?
No, no, no, no. Not until Obama takes the oath and McCain apologizes. That's why we're still sending in the money, making the calls, and knocking the doors.
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Here are the numbers:
Likelihood of an Obama victory: >99.99%
Expected number of electoral votes: 351
Major Changes:
Last Week This Week
D R D R
Florida (27 votes): 50% 47% 47% 49%
Georgia (15 votes): 43% 49% 47% 48%
Missouri (11 votes): 52% 46% 48% 48%
Montana (3 votes): 45% 50% 44% 40%
New Hampshire (4 votes): 48% 43% 47% 46%
New Mexico (5 votes): 55% 42% 46% 46%
North Carolina (15 votes): 48% 46% 48% 50%
Ohio (20 votes): 49% 49% 53% 41%
Virginia (13 votes): 53% 43% 47% 45%
Senate:
90% likelihood of winning 57 seats (No Change)
50% likelihood of winning 58 seats (No Change)
10% likelihood of winning 60 seats (No Change)
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