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Post from Josh Thomas's Blog:
Indiana DID decide the nomination! (with a huge boost from NC)

It's 2 a.m. Central Time Wednesday morning here in Northwest Indiana, and Sen. Clinton won the state by a hair. Good for her, she ran a smart campaign; not a good campaign, but a smart one. The Clintons are total pros.

Sen. Obama won North Carolina by a landslide, despite Bill Clinton's showing up in every two-bit town in the state; the networks called that contest the minute the polls closed. So all eyes turned to Indiana.

I've said for months that Indiana would decide the nomination. And even though Barack lost narrowly, Hard Hat Hillary lost too.

She had him where she wanted him, on the defensive, Rev. Wright and yadda yadda. "I will fight for you," despite the fact that she and her husband pulled in $109 million since they left the White House. Annie, get your gun.

Hoosiers didn't buy it, even at the lowest point of Obama's campaign. She obviously can't close the deal, even when her opponent is on the ropes.

And now the math becomes inexorable. She cannot win; he cannot lose. Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. 

I live in a rural county just south of late-reporting Lake. Hillary won here, as she won every rural county. She lost Indianapolis big, Fort Wayne big, South Bend and Elkhart big, Bloomington and Lafayette/West Lafayette big. She lost in Boone County and Hamilton County, White enclaves north of Indy. She lost Lake County, the most racially segregated county in Indiana.

She eked out just enough redneck votes to carry the state; just enough. The candidates split the delegates. Meanwhile Obama's got a commanding lead nationally.

Indiana was her last best chance, but she couldn't close the deal. Hoosiers saw through her quarter-and-a-nickel gas tax giveaway. Her own voters knew she was pandering. So why did they vote for her?

Well, she's a woman, and that's a positive thing. Plus she's White; that's worth some votes in rural Indiana.

Obama almost beat her anyway. Despite his advantage in Northwest Indiana, he had almost no presence in rural areas. And for all his vaunted campaign organization, it's way too reliant on the internet and TV. It doesn't exist on the ground in many places. What kind of candidate runs out of T-shirts and yard signs? It's free advertising!

Outside my polling place in a town of 1800, Obama had two used yard signs, obviously salvaged from Iowa. Hillary had a table of lady volunteers. Obama had no organization in my county, none. I was surprised the weatherbeaten yard signs showed up.

Obama's internet whiz kids need to stop reading their reviews and start making merchandise available to local organizers. There is a definite elitist aspect to Obama's campaign, and it doesn't come from the candidate, but from his over-confident staffers.

They carried Purdue, IU and Notre Dame, and to everyone else they said, "Not the right demographic." Hey kidz, every vote counts the same—and you lost Indiana!

Obama needs to be very careful about whom he hires among his campaign staff for the White House, because I was not the least impressed by his Indiana organization. They sliced and diced this state just like Clinton did, and I find that offensive. College students are not enough to win an election. Neither are Black folk.

Despite all these problems, we have a transcendent candidate. I'm sure he knows the internal shortcomings of his campaign. So much gets left undone; he could have won this state by broader utilization of his volunteers. It's a tribute to the candidate, and not his staff, that he did as well as he did here, losing by a hair. He let the kidz lose Indiana, just like he's let Annie Oakley hang around after her time.

But they've all done just well enough to limp into Denver and the Democratic nomination. The superdelegates will fall Obama's way and victory will be ours in the fall. The close race in Indiana proved that even when Obama is on the ropes, he's in the fight. He's a champion.

Last thought: ditch the phrase, "a war that should never have been authorized and should never have been waged." Substitute "this disastrous war in Iraq that Bush-Cheney lied for, our children are dying for and Hillary Clinton voted for."

That one line would have carried Indiana in a landslide.++ 

 

 

 


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