Organizing for America | Jon Pincus's Blog: prediction thread: how many people in the myBO group on July 8?

prediction thread: how many people in the myBO group on July 8?

By Jon - Jul 2nd, 2008 at 2:02 pm EDT

Also listed in: 4 groups

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Tags: FISA, Prediction

The number of people in the Senator Obama - Please, No Telecom Immunity and Get FISA Right group is the most important number we're tracking. Our original goal was "over 13000 by the time the FISA vote happens", i.e., the largest group on myBO ... we're clearly going to exceed that. How much farther can we take things?

Let's arbitrarily pick noon (EDT) on July 8 as when the vote might happen. How many people do you think we'll have by then?

it's a grassroots operation, so we don't have money for fabulous prizes. however, we will announce the winners, and you'll get bragging rights. We'll have two categories:

1) first person to be within 5% of the actual number
2) most accurate prediction

It's okay to make multiple predictions as new information comes in, but please no more than one per day.

Go for it! I'll kick things off.

jon

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Please read this. | Report to Admin

By Joy Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:04 pm EDT

Read this and share this with everyone you know.

Link

75,000 | Report to Admin

By Jon Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:14 pm EDT

assuming myBO holds up under the load that is.

this is about 40%/day between now and then. of course it's harder to sustain those rates of growth as the base gets larger, we've been growing that fast or faster than that without any MSM attention -- and we're just getting organized on the viral outreach, so i think it's achievable

prediction | Report to Admin

By Allan from New Haven, CT Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:12 pm EDT

49,882

But the real question is what will BO do?

A very optimistic guess | Report to Admin

By Linda from Cambridge, MA Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:26 pm EDT

18,005

Oops--typo | Report to Admin

By Linda from Cambridge, MA Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:27 pm EDT

Oops, my post had a typo in it...So here is my actual guess: 88, 005

Re: Oops--typo | Report to Admin

By Jon Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:44 pm EDT

big difference -- and a lot more optimistic -- thanks!

Save Your Bragging Rights | Report to Admin

By Patrick O'Connor RFO California CD 29 Obama for America Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:49 pm EDT

This is a serious issue. I've working too damn hard to tolerate this self-indulgence. Disagree, on FISA if you must but leave your braggadocio outside where it belongs. Perhaps instead you could encourage those in this group who seem to be in no other group to reach out to Obama supporters in their communities who have been working their hearts for 18 months. Prizes! Perhaps you've heard the expression "eyes on the prize". If not google it and learn the lesson. And if you have heard it, well then live the lesson.

Patick O'Connor

Re: Save Your Bragging Rights | Report to Admin

By Jon Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:55 pm EDT

Yes, it's a serious issue. That doesn't mean we can't have fun.

If it's not your style, that's fine. No need to attack us.

Re: Save Your Bragging Rights | Report to Admin

By Rich Jensen Jul 4th 2008 at 12:32 pm EDT

"Eyes on the prize", yes that is the point. Because of the remarkable groundwork of many thousands of folks like you, an Obama administration is well on its way to taking shape in America. The question now is becoming, "Just what is that shape?"

Over the last 18 months, Barack's stump speech has included the declaration that his adminstration would be an end, "to Scooter Libby justice". Isn't this exactly the prize the +20,000 members of the "Get FISA Right" are keeping their eyes on?

Re: Save Your Bragging Rights | Report to Admin

By Rich Jensen Jul 4th 2008 at 12:43 pm EDT

Correction: 18,870 members. (slow day today)

Interesting..... | Report to Admin

By MusicallyMotivatedMama Jul 2nd 2008 at 2:51 pm EDT

I'll say 26,790.

Of more interest to me is, which way will Barack jump and at what point do the numbers achieve sufficient pressure?

I've always felt positive that Barack would be a President who would take the time to explain his decisions to the People.

At the very least I expect an articulate response, which I will eagerly await.

Re: Interesting..... | Report to Admin

By MusicallyMotivatedMama Jul 2nd 2008 at 3:00 pm EDT

Tsk, tsk. It's Democracy at work. Of all people, Barack should appreciate and respect this!
As for reaching out...I have been a volunteer for the campaign throughout the Primary season and I live in the armpit of western Ky.
You can't know how hard it's been to support Obama here, yet we persist. In fact we will meet @ 5:00 today to continue the work on the Obama/Dems float we are entering in the 4th of July parade here in Murray.
Commitment is a two way street and Dissent is the Highest form of Patriotism.
Your tone is very insulting and demeaning.
I recommend you control it.

Re: Interesting..... | Report to Admin

By Rich Jensen Jul 4th 2008 at 11:39 am EDT

Not sure, but I'm thinking your comment was directed at Patrick?

Right on to you, for keeping the faith in a deep red sea!

Prognosis | Report to Admin

By Rich Jensen Jul 4th 2008 at 3:41 am EDT

The winning prediction will be 39,500.*

Thank you.

*In a very serious undertaking such as this it is essential to clarify the winning criteria with absolute precision.

Towit:

My entry is a prediction of the number of members found on the 'last page' of the group as listed by the group's 'view all' button at Noon (EDT) July 8, 2008. This entry is not a prediction of the number of members listed on the 'largest groups' page. Nor is it adjusted downward to compensate for the many duplicate entries found in the membership rolls.

It is, however, a startling and uncanny glimpse into the future.

Re: Prognosis | Report to Admin

By Rich Jensen Jul 5th 2008 at 3:35 pm EDT

OK. The future has changed.

Due to the slow growth during the holiday weekend the new number (not a prediction but a statement of a fact-to-be) is 29,500 based on the counting criteria above. An alternative counting via the "largest group" page will be 1,000 members less, i.e. 28,500 (July 8, 12 Noon EDT).

Just How Many Are REALLY in Your Group? | Report to Admin

By Kathy Jul 4th 2008 at 11:53 am EDT

Have any of you actually looked at your own membership list?

Look at just how many duplicates are there! Can we really trust your efforts if it appears that you're artficially inflating your numbers???

Re: Just How Many Are REALLY in Your Group? | Report to Admin

By Rich Jensen Jul 4th 2008 at 1:33 pm EDT

I'm guessing all of the groups in my.BO have many duplicate entries. I think it is a function of the slow response-time common to web database environments. The system pauses-out and users aren't sure what happened so they hit the enter-button again, etc.

I'm feeling very arithmetick-y this weekend so I might investigate the duplicate entry volume in the "Get FISA Right" Group and compare it to others.

But what I find most interesting about your comment Kathy is your choice of pronoun "you" and the quality of agency you give to this character "you". I can understand using "you" to distinguish yourself from the group if you chose not to join it. I also understand that you may consider Jon to be instrumental in launching and popularizing the group and therefore would use "you" to address him and the other administrators of the group. But there is nothing "artificial" about the many, many thousands of people that have independently enrolled in the "Get FISA Right" group. It seems to me the group is either a "They" or a "We", depending on one's point of view or level of participation. In either case, it should be absolutely clear that the group is a multitudinous plurality of independent actors, not a monolithic subject capable of cleverly disguising itself via "artificial inflation".

I don't know if you really meant it that way, but it struck me as both bizzare and a potentially dangerous kind of seperation from and stereotyping of many other folks who might actually have a great deal of common with you despite joining a group that you wouldn't join.

Regarding the inflation, if there have been three duplicate entries per page (seems about like what I've seen) that would amount to 12% inflation, ie the "Get FISA Right" group would "only" have about 16,750 bona fide members right now.

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