By William Hershey, Dayton Daily News
Thursday, April 24, 2008
COLUMBUS — It's hoops-happy Indiana's time to be the make-or-break state in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes and Ohio political consultant Jerry Austin thinks he knows how Barack Obama can close the gap with working-class voters that hurt him in Pennsylvania and Ohio:
Grab a basketball, head to the local Y for a pickup game and start throwing some elbows.
It'd make a great TV spot, revealing a more human, relaxed Obama, said Austin.
"Even when he wants to look relaxed, you don't see him in a golf shirt. You see him in a dress shirt," said Austin. But on the basketball court, "He's all elbows. He can shoot," Austin added.
The results Tuesday, April 22, in Pennsylvania – which Sen. Hillary Clinton won by 9 points, just shy of her 10 point win in Ohio on March 4 – exposed what appears to be a growing problem for Obama in older, Midwestern industrial states with aging populations, said Christopher Duncan, chairman of the political science department at the University of Dayton.
It's a problem that's keeping Hillary Clinton's campaign alive, he said. "The longer this draws out, the bigger the connection gap seems to become between Barack Obama and middle America," said Duncan.
Clinton's victories in these states also show she's more electable in November, said Clinton backer James Ruvolo, a former Ohio Democratic Party chairman.
Austin, an Obama supporter and manager of Jesse Jackson's 1988 presidential campaign, said he thinks Obama can do better in Indiana than he did in Ohio and Pennsylvania. First, the Gary area in northwest Indiana is in the Chicago media market so voters there already know the senator from Illinois. Second, Indiana has an abundance of the college towns where Obama does well, Austin said.
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll on April 15 showed Obama with a 5-point lead in Indiana and with a 13 point lead in North Carolina, both states hold primaries on May 6.
Obama heads in to both states with a huge financial advantage. He ended March with more than $42 million in cash for the remaining primaries. Clinton, meanwhile, had debts greater than cash on hand for the rest of the primaries although her Pennsylvania win is expected to help fundraising.
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