The media continues to overhype the Obama campaign and build expectations that will not be met. Lacking any specific polling data the media has been continually predicting that all of the following February primaries & caucuses will go Obama's way. I have very specific reasons why that will not happen:
Washington: The two state senators have both endorsed Clinton. It is a caucus which means this type of support will heavily help turn-out & control of the caucus process. Similar to Nevada where the Reid family helped control the caucus process. Also, Californians supported clinton, and Washington most resembles California in it's population demographics. Finally, Asian-Americans in California showed clear support for Clinton, and Washington has a high percentage of Asian Americans.
Louisiana: Hurricane Katrina greatly altered the demographics of Louisana and African-Americans do not have as great of a majority as they once did. Add in Clinton's strong and visible work after the Hurricane and Louisana shows strong potential for a Clinton win.
Maine: Clinton won neighboring states of New Hampshire and Massachusetts by significant majorities. Maine has supported strong female candidates for Senate.
Virginia: The rural south has been strongly supporting Clinton in low African-American areas. There is enough of a balance demographically in Virginia for this to be heavily contested. Additionally, the DNC has a strong presence in Virginia and a lot of the heads have already endorsed Clinton including: Terry McAuliffe, Jennifer McClellan, and Susan Swecker.
I do think the remaining states still hold advantages for Obama, but these four show that she can easily hold her own through the month of February and into March.
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