Organizing for America | Obama debate performances are killing us: Barack's Iowa problem

Post from Obama debate performances are killing us:

Barack's Iowa problem

By Blaze - Aug 23rd, 2007 at 1:30 am EDT

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First of all , i want to start off by saying that i believe Barack will win Iowa but realisticaly , it's not going to be easy and there are some major problems Obama will have to overcome to win this state....

While my heart says Barack will win Iowa , my head says he has no shot there.

The 3 main problem for Obama in Iowa are simple:
1)Iowa is too white..The state is 98% white.

2)Iowa is too old..Iowa has one of the oldest population in the nation.

3)Iowa is too rural...The Iowa caucus system was set up to hand over huge influence to rural Iowans...Those are the country boys and girls.

Now , let me try to comprehensively explain to you why those 3 facts that i stated above are huge problems for Obama.
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First , lets start off with Iowa being too white.

I know i will catch a lot of flames for that , but there's a reason why South Carolina is Obama's firewall...Obama is doing much better in South Carolina then anywhere else among those early states...South Carolina is much more diverse and is much more in line with the U.S geographic then Iowa.

The U.S is about 70% white and 30% minority..Iowa is 98% white which is a huge swing...South Carolina is about 65% white and 35% black.

Iowa , is by far one of the whitest state in the U.S and the reason why this could hurt Obama is because there's a percentage of the white population that would never consider Barack because of his skin color....Some may disagree with me but i think you're foolish if you think this population doesn't exist.

My argument goes like this ...The whiter the state , the bigger the percentage of an "anti-black" population gets....Minority voters are more likely to disregard Barack's skin color then a white voters and this is a fact.

In Iowa , you hear a lot of "well , i like him but i don't think a black man can win"...Those are the population that will make is extremely hard for Obama.

Let's move to the second problem which is , Iowa is too old.

Polls after polls clearly shows that Obama support comes from young voters while his support among older voters is very weak....I strongly feel that the reason why Barack is getting a lot less support from old white Iowans is because old white people tends to be a bit more prejudice against minorities then young whites..

So , Iowa population being so old could eventualy hurt Obama's chances in winning the state..It's plain and simple.
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And finally ,the third problem which is , Iowa is too rural.

Again , polls after polls have shown that Obama support in Iowa is coming from the urban areas where the college campuses are located while his support in rural Iowa is weak..

The Iowa caucus was set up to force presidential candidates to campaign in rural Iowa eventhough there are way much more voters living in Urban Iowa.

Obama could get one million caucus-goers to caucus for him in Iowa , but if he can't get broad support in the rural areas , it won't matter.

What people doesn't understand is that the caucus winner could win the most vote statewide and still lose because his support in those rural regions wasn't broad and good enough.

I would tell you that for rural Iowans , Obama looks like an alien from outer space since there aren't too many African Americans living among them if not none.

Obama is a black man from Chicago and i could see many of them not considering him.

John Edwards looks like them and there's a reason why polls have also shown he's doing great in the rural region...Edwards is a white southern boy who looks like your average rural Iowans and this helps him a lot.
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Anyway , those are the 3 biggest problems obama faces in Iowa and i must wonder whether it would 've been wize to skip the state entirely and concentrate on South Carolina/NH.

I know it's too late now , but i just do not trust Iowans.

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