http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Susq_Presidential_August2008.pdf
Pennsylvania – In the PA presidential race, Barack Obama still holds a narrow lead over John McCain, with 46% supporting Obama to 41% for McCain; 10% remain undecided with 3% saying they would vote for neither or vote for another candidate. This includes 30% who are “definitely” voting for McCain and 37% “definitely” voting for Obama. This poll shows no movement from Obama’s narrow 46/39 lead in May, which means Obama has gotten no positive “bounce” since officially clinching the nomination battle over Hillary Rodham Clinton earlier this year. In a close contest however, Obama’s lead on intensity with a higher percentage of “definite” support could be the deciding factor that puts him over the top because it means his base is more solidified and his troops more energized than those of McCain.
Both McCain and Obama have virtually the same ratios in hard name ID and are liked nearly equally by the voters. For Obama, he is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion; 22% have no opinion of him. For McCain, 44% view him favorably, compared to 34% who view him unfavorably and 22% who have no opinion. This again reflects the closeness of the race since neither candidate has succeeded in developing a positive image that is head-and-shoulders above the other.
In a separate match-up of candidates with Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr in the race, Obama leads McCain 44/38, with Nader at 3% and Barr at 2%; 10% remain undecided. Given the fact that the race is closest in a 2-person match-up without the third-party candidates, Barr’s presence on the ballot could be a deciding factor that siphons away critical support from McCain. This is particularly important in the conservative South Central/Harrisburg region, where Barr is polling at 5%, which is an area McCain needs a huge margin of support in to help offset Obama’s big vote margins in Southeastern PA including Philadelphia where collectively more than 1 in 3 votes are cast in a PA statewide election.
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