When it comes to the Obama campaign's 50 state voter registration drive, there's a perfect storm brewing in a little corner of Virginia. A voter registration drive, focused in one particular county, Norfolk City County, can have an enormous effect on the statewide result and go a long way toward swinging Virginia's 13 electoral votes to Obama. Here's why:
By comparing voter registration statistics and census data, there are potentially 70,000 new voters to register in the county. This doesn't seem like that many when compared to the rougly 4.2 million voters registered in the state, but even assuming a high 85% turnout, as in 1992, 1.3% of the likely vote total represents about a 46,000 vote lead for McCain. One would expect this county to vote for Obama with percentages at least as high as the 63% for Gore in 2000, most likely percentages closer to 70% for Obama. If you could register even half of the potential voters, this could result in an additional 25000 votes for Obama, more than half the votes needed across the entire state to close the gap with McCain, all from one county.
So, Obama supporters, if you live in or near this area, or are planning on traveling to a voter registration drive, hit the ground and register Norfolk! This would go a long way toward making Virginia go blue for the first time in 44 years!
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