so here we are: one day remaining. doesn't seem too long ago that i kept catching glimpses of this obama fellow in 2007 and thought how wonderful would it be... never expecting him to come this far up against edwards and clinton. as i have said before, from a marketing perspective, gaining a significant share of the market (in this case: eligible voters) is complicated in today's environment. any start-up firm would be hard pressed to snatch away a significant portion of p&g or coca cola customers. that same start-up firm would exemplify modern brilliance should it manage to overtake the market and gain control for any period of time. that is, in essence, what obama did in 2008. i recognized his potential. i praised his marketing campaign. yet, until super tuesday, i remained unconvinced that obama would succeed at becoming the nominee and beat the two well-established brands of edwards and clinton. once we knew obama was our nominee, i often joked that the only way mccain stood a chance against obama was by selecting a female running mate. i certainly did not mean "that one." when mccain announced palin in dayton, i first cringed. then i googled her investigation to confirm that she had been exhonerated. to my surprise, his popular governor from alaska was still under investigation for abuse of power and likely guilty as hell. was the crime all that bad? not really. yet, just as getting a blow job or sticking a cigar in your chubby aide's kootch is not that bad... when you lie repeatedly and attempt to disguise your blunder... that is often far worse than the original crime. what people i have met and people like palin do not seem to understand, many of us are forgiving of a mistake or two... just not the pattern of lies or unfaithfulness that accompanies deception. its the compulsiveness, the ease, and the noticeable pattern that deteriorates and ultimately destroys trust.needless to say, prior to the veep picks, i began imagining an electoral map in 2008 that mimics the map ross perot carved out for bill clinton in 1992. while initially i was nervous to see what became of clinton's stalwart supporters of which,in exit polls, many had proudly proclaimed gender as major factor in their support. however, with time, palin did backfire in the sense that she was ineffective at luring independents and former clinton voters. arguably, i assert that palin has been effective in igniting the base to match the sweat behind obama. only tomorrow will we know whether the fire palin lit in the far right-wing nuts of our country is burning strong or whether it turns out to be like a rash between your legs after a good date gone bad.to refresh your memory, review the electoral map in 1992 where clinton pulled out a huge upset against the incumbent thanks to ross perot who remains the only successful third party candidate in modern elections.
first states i would point our are louisiana, kentucky, and tennessee. i knew this summer that those states were outside the realm of possibility. in fact, tennessee turned against gore in 2000 largely due to his environmental convictions. given that bobby jindal is about as far too the right as sarah palin, i assumed louisiana was also outside the realm of possibility despite the outcome in the primary in obama's favor. and kentucky... well that ole kentucky home is a thorn in my side, but i will defend her natural beauty until my dying day... just not the folks' politics. ross perot's impressive 18% popular vote splintered the would-be republican votes and carved out a victory for bill clinton in additional states that stay with mccain: arkansas, montana, and west virgnina. while its true that mccain's lead in arkansas is presently only in single digits, i was always hopeful that with help from bill and hillary, obama would remain more competitive as far south as arkansas. like kentucky, west virginia seems to be very confused as to who has their best interest at heart. and, i might as well say it within this blog since i had to slam a door on my fingers a few weeks ago when i thought about writing a blog strictly targeting the separation of church and state. for those of you who forgot, we are suppose to acknowledge a separation of church and state! separation of church and state is among the founding principles of the united states of america. heads up people! when we fail to pratice our civil duties and vote for the best qualified leader to restore economic and foriegn matters because we want a candidate that agrees with the majority of our religious doctrine... hello... that is how you end up with george w. bush twice and the deteriorated condition of our country today. vote for the best candidate. don't vote based on religious convictions. if we transfer our country's power and wealth to china, russia. or the middle east... you may not have always have the freedom to practice that religion you love so much and wanted to shove down my throat. obama appears to be strongly competing to win with an electoral map much like bill clinton's first win. the difference, and what makes this especially remarkable, obama will accomplish this without a strong third party candidate which means he is winning with a more united country and a greater percentage or the popular vote. a percentage not seen since the eighties. obama's net reduction would be 39 electoral votes after losing these five states which is still enough to make him the victor tomorrow. however, obama will likely and hopefully pick up states that even bill clinton could not win in 1992. according to new sources such as real clear politics, abc and msnbc news, toss up states include: montana, indiana, missouri, north carolina, ohio, georgia, virginia, and florida. the other three that are sometimes considered a toss-up are: nevada, north dakota, and arizona. however, i am relatively confident that nevada will break for obama and north dakota and arizona will break for mccain... albiet narrow victories no matter what the outcome. with that said, my electoral predicions for tomorrow night:
given the nature of a predicion, i have to make a few tough calls and my map is admitedly optimistic in the sense that i really want obama to win in north carolina and georgia and prevent mccain from narrowly squeaking by him. since the beginning of the summer, i have envisioned a 1992 map where obama gave up four or five states and replaced them florida, virginia, and georgia which is a net 51 electoral votes. the end result would be a few less states, but a greater electoral and popular vote win on election day for barack. based on a series of recent polls and early voting results, i feel good about viginia and florida. i may still be overly optimistic about georgia, but it now looks like obama has an equally optimistic chance in north carolina so i moved both to obama's column. if you read my earlier blog during the primaries, i liked to mention obama's performance in north and south carolina. he alone, had more votes cast for him than mccain and his republican counterparts combined. early voting and polls show the margin in the general election tight in south carolina while virtually tied and potentially leaning to obama in north carolina. amazing! as for georgia, a relatively strong third party candidate in georgia, bob barr, could "help" tip that state to obama like ross perot did in 1992. barr polled around 8% this spring, but third party candidates generally poll better early than the final outcome because more and more voters fold into the two major parties. presently, "other" in georgia is at 4% and bob barr, a georgian, is believed to compose the majority of that 4% or better... as he has been gaining in the polls this last few weeks by picking up undecided georgia independents.last week's cnn/time poll revealed that among "likely" georgia voters — presumably those who are both registered and have a proven track record of participating in elections, the race breaks down as follows: mccain: 50%, obama: 46%, barr: 3%
however, if the pool of voters is widened to include simply registered voters — which would include first-time voters or those who rarely participate in general elections — then the georgia vote shifts in obama's favor: mccain: 46%, obama: 49%, barr: 4%
so there you have it, i was dissappointed when the obama for america campaign shifted resourced from georgia last month, but happy to hear that more than half of registered voters have voted early thought to benefit obama. i was also happy when obama shifted resources back to georgia last week and may help see my wish to fruition.
what of my other swing state calls? montana is close. originally, that state looked good for obama, but slipped back to mccain after the palin pick. perhaps montana is the one state that palin helps mccain win. yet, we are squabbling over three electoral votes and i my calculations are that obama will succeed with or without montana. i call montana for mccain because the last month's series of polls generally have mccain leading in spite of that gap closing and now close. the same is true of arizona. i was in arizona in may. i kept asking people i met, and i gathered that if mccain was not from arizona, the state would go blue. yet, i see arizona staying narrowly red. meanwhile, long before the pundits and major shift in the polls, i have felt confident that obama would perform better in florida than ohio which was not the case for bill clinton in 1992. however, like nevada, florida's economy is hurting and unlike mccain who hosted a convention centered around terrorism... i have long thought the economy is the greatest security risk facing our country. i trust that florida agrees and i will take back every sand bar comment i've made since 2000.
ultimately, i call ohio for obama... but i predict ohio to be too close to call until after the west coast polls are closed. additionally, for the same reason i foresee ohio ending close, i also see indiana close. however, i see indiana narrowly red for mccain. unlike missiouri, indiana's popular senator is somewhat a bore and moderate. indiana reminds me of northern kentucky democrats. in order to win, you have to market yourself as a virtual republican. with that said and given that indiana did not break for clinton with perot's help, i call indiana for mccain and i call missiouri for obama... home of the likable, well-known, and early obama activist, senator claire mccaskill. if she ran for governor first, she could be president in 2016, eh?
end game: obama with 379 electoral votes. the greatest victory since the eighties. and incidentally, i alway hinted he would prove to be our next great american president. finally, i win a contest... by virtue of association or vicariously or something like that.
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