August can be the cruelest month for Democrats. But take heart. In spite of all the nervous making headlines on polls Obama shows real strength among Hispanic voters. That adds to his exisiting strength in many age groups and population sectors.
For McCain to be competitive in the November election political analysts believe he has to get 35% of the Hispanic vote. That's not where McCain is headed. That 35% is necessary in states such as Colorado, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and southern states with growing Latin voters and that are competitive: Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.
Right now the thoroughly reliable and dispassionate Pew Hispanic Center reported that the Hispanic vote is 66% to 23% for Obama over McCain.
The Center also reported that 3/4 of the Hispanic voters who voted for Clinton in the primaries are inclined to vote for Obama.Only 8% of Clinton voters support McCain. Added to the mix is an increasing identification by Hispanics with the Democratic Party.
We all know the challenges of registration, getting people to the polls, overcoming the harassment and obstacles to voting faced by Hispanics and African Americans in too many polling places. Organized efforts everywhere will challenge and overcome these obstacles.
More than any campaign in my living memory-- I go back a long way, working precincts for Stevenson in 1952-- this organized political effort shows this election is a beginning not an ending. In my own organizing and advocacy work, I know the importance of organized issue activity between elections. That is well understood by the Mexican and Central American communities. These participants bring their cuture of particpation to the USA world. It's refreshing and energizing for all of us.
Even if the margin doesn't stay at 66-23, McCain is not likely to get close to the 35%overall that he needs. What's more the voter turnout by Hispanics will likely be substantially greater than in the past. These represent hopeful signs. They are based on organized action.
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