Today, for the first time, Obama has a tiny lead in the polling average in North Carolina. Early voting has been overwhelmingly for Obama. That margin will narrow to a few percentage points come Election Day. Obama's average polling lead is only 0.8 points, well within the margin of error, and McCain certainly could still stage a comeback in the state, but Obama's chances in North Carolina are better than even.
This is astonishing. North Carolinians haven't voted Democratic for president since 1976, when they sided with the Democratic governor of Georgia. In 2004, they went for Bush by double digits even though their own Senator, John Edwards, was on the ticket against him. A Democratic African-American Senator from a midwestern state carrying North Carolina would be epochal.
North Carolina is a big chunk of change, electorally speaking. With 15 votes, it's tied for 9th biggest state in the Electoral College. If Obama were to take North Carolina, he would win even if McCain's crazed assault on Pennsylvania succeeded in carrying the state for the Republicans, and even if Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Missouri all shifted back to McCain. Obama's chances have never looked so good.
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