Nominating McCain was an extremely high-risk, high-reward gamble for the Republican party. The reward side was that McCain was by far the best chance the Republicans had of salvaging the 2008 election; Rudolph Giuliani was the only GOP rival even close to Arizona's senior senator in popularity. Romney or Huckabee would be down 15 to 20 points by this time in the campaign, and Thompson would in all likelihood have dropped out from sheer ennui by now. The press loved McCain, and he had substantial support among Democratic voters. With Obama and Clinton tearing each other up and expending their resources in the primaries, it looked like McCain had a real chance. If the economy had managed to keep running on fumes for another six months, McCain might have pulled the Republicans back from the brink of disaster.
But it looks now like the gamble has not paid off. Nate Silver, whom I trust, judges Obama to have about a 95% chance to win in November. And then McCain's high risk side comes into play. McCain was the Republicans' best chance to win, but if he loses anyway, the consequences of his defeat will be far worse for the GOP than any other candidate's loss would have been.
If Huckabee, Romney, or someone else more palatable to the religious right base of the Republican party had lost this year, the Republicans could have come back in 2012 with a fresh face appealing to the American center, and the religious right would have fallen into line because it will have spent the 2008-2012 era portraying Obama as the Antichrist. But to the neocons and Bible thumpers, McCain is a certified RINO: a Republican In Name Only. They will spend the next four years insisting that McCain lost because he wasn't conservative enough. Next time, they will say, we will give the public a real conservative alternative to godless liberalism. This mantra will dominate the Republican primaries for at least two, possibly three election cycles, and will lead to sharper and sharper defeats.
Who will the New Conservative Godsend be in 2012? A lot of people are saying Sarah Palin. I think Palin is unlikely to get the nomination, unless Obama does a superhuman job of repairing the wreck the Bush adminsitration has made of the country and looks unbeatable by autumn 2011. In that case, the Republicans' old hands might wait to fight another day, and Palin would be named to lead the quixotic crusade on the incumbent Democrat. However, if Obama looks vulnerable at primary time, Palin doesn't have the intraparty support she needs to get the nomination, and she doesn't have the skill to lead an insurgent primary. Look instead for Romney, Huckabee, Rick Santorum, or Gary Bauer to get the 2012 nod. Even if he's done an ordinary or bad job as president, Obama will make mincemeat of any one of them.
Then on to 2016, when the Republicans will judge that their mistake was to nominate a religious conservative extremist instead of an economic conservative extremist. Bring on Candidate Newt Gingrich, Candidate Grover Norquist, Candidate Steve Forbes, or even, for sheer amusement value, Candidate Ron Paul! If the Republicans are lucky, they will lose by a landslide, and the shock will finally force an internal party revolution and a return to sanity. But if they are unlucky, the Democratic candidate (Bill Richardson? Hillary Clinton?) will not be able to outperform Obama, and the Republicans will lose by a little less than they did in 2012. Then the GOP will conclude, "We're making progress! Just a little further to the right, and victory is ours!" Hence an even bloodier GOP catastrophe in 2020, possibly under the banner of a resurrected Tom Tancredo, Ralph Reed (if he is not in prison by then), Roy Blunt, or Tom DeLay.
It may seem that I'm gloating over the Republicans' dismal prospects. I confess, I do feel a little schadenfreude; I used to support the Republicans, and it feels good to see my decision to abandon them vindicated. But in truth, I'm hoping the Republicans get their act together and reshape conservatism into a more sane, sober, and responsible form as soon as possible. Power corrupts, and no one party can be allowed to gain permanent control of the government. Democrats will eventually need to be taught a lesson in turn, and I hope to God the Republicans have changed enough to be trusted with power again by the time that happens.
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