Here is something important I learned as a Government & Politics major at George Mason University back in the early '80s: numbers can lie. A class on political statistics clearly demonstrated that numbers can be manipulated to support whatever position they need to on any given issue. That was probably one of the greatest lessons I took away from my degree program.
Since that time, I pay very little attention to polls. Polls are accurate about as often as weather reports. But they do serve an important psychological function - they make people believe that future events are predictable. And they do sway people who are uncertain and undecided by giving them an anchor or a framework for their decision making.
There has been a lot of talk about the polls at the Obama events I've attended this past week. And I say the same thing every time - the polls are working in our favor. Every Obama supporter needs to wake up every day scared to death that our candidate may not win. Why? Because the legion of people the pollsters have largely overlooked will work that much harder over the next 67 days to make sure Obama supporters are registered and turn out to vote.
I hope the polls continue to show a very close race. It will be the fuel that drives us to knock on doors, make the phone calls, register the voters, participate in fundraisers, recruit other volunteers, and display our support on our cars, our lawns and our t-shirts. We cannot pull back on this effort for even one day. These well publicized polls will help ensure that we don't. So embrace the polls for the positive effect they will have on the Obama campaign and realize on any given day those numbers are probably about as accurate as the chance for rain.
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