Organizing for America | Craig's Blog: New NH poll- Obama leading by 10 points

New NH poll- Obama leading by 10 points

By Craig - Jan 5th, 2008 at 6:41 pm EST

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New Hampshire: Obama 37% Clinton 27%Saturday, January 05, 2008Barack Obama, fresh from his victory in Iowa, now holds a ten point lead over Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race found Obama with 37% of the vote while Clinton earns 27%. John Edwards is the only other candidate in double digits, with 19% support. Bill Richardson is the choice for 8%.In a pre-Christmas poll, Clinton led Obama by three. In the poll before that, Obama led Clinton by three. Clinton still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll but Rasmussen Markets data suggests the race for the nomination is essentially even. In New Hampshire, Obama leads Clinton by five points among Democrats and by sixteen points among Independents. The survey indicates that 40% of the voters will be Independents. Eighty percent (80%) of Obama voters say they are certain they will vote for him. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Clinton voters say the same along with 64% of Edwards supporters. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Likely Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say the same about Edwards and 69% offer a positive assessment of Clinton. Just 48% of Obama supporters have a favorable opinion of Clinton. Fifty-one percent (51%) have the opposite opinion including 22% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of the former First Lady. At the same time, 75% of Clinton supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Among Edwards voters, 79% have a favorable opinion of Obama and 73% say the same about Clinton. Obama is seen as the most electable Democratic candidate. Eighty-seven percent (87%) believe he would be at least somewhat likely to win if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton and 75% think Edwards would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Obama would be Very Likely to win. Just 38% have such confidence in Clinton. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in New Hampshire say that Health Care is a Very Important voting issue. Seventy-three percent (73%) say the same about the economy, 70% attach the same importance to Government Ethics and Corruptions, and 69% say Iraq is a Very Important voting issue. Rasmussen Markets data at 10:00 a.m. on Saturday morning suggest that Barack Obama has a 65% chance of winning in New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton is given a 37% chance of winning (current numbers: Obama 76.9 %, Clinton 25.9 %. At that same time, Clinton and Obama were each given a 50% chance of ultimately winning the nomination (current numbers: Obama 53.0 %, Clinton 46.0 %. These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Rasmussen Reports will be releasing new polling data on the New Hampshire race each morning until Tuesday.

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