Probability is that "American Research Group" may be biasing results toward Hillary Clinton for some unknown reason . I don't know exactly why this is, but their Iowa poll results for Hillary Clinton and their New Hampshire poll results give HRC exactly the same edge today.
American Res. Group 12/16 - 12/19 600 LV 38 24 15 5 4 Clinton +14.0
American Res. Group 12/20 - 12/23 600 LV 34 19 20 5 8 Clinton +14.0
The results here are so similar -- yet totally out of wack with what other groups are reporting.
Here is the Iowa link for Real Clear Politics.
And the New Hampshire link for RCP.
Having spent a portion of my life being more than a little analytical, I enjoy studying statistics. So I am highly suspect when one company is significantly different in their results from other reputable firms. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we discover some built-in bias or unintentional skewing of the results.
Kind of makes me wonder -- who owns American Research Group? In NH, with two other reputable firms showing Obama ahead, and one showing him in a statistical tie, it's real tough for me to believe that HRC has jumped back ahead +14 pts without some serious errors in the ARG survey - in methodology or survey execution.
Anyone know anything about this group?
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