Organizing for America | Amy Baral's Blog: The Democratic Nomination Process Heats Up

The Democratic Nomination Process Heats Up

By Amy Baral - Jan 25th, 2008 at 1:58 am EST

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Tags: campaigning, Clinton, edwards, election 2008, Obama

Kornblut and Murray do an excellent job in explaining the campaign strategies for Democratic frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

I will quickly sum up the article for you along with adding some of my own personal ideas.
First, Clinton...
Hillary, as we have seen, has moved away from South Carolina- leaving Bill and Chelsea there, as she herself heads off to the top February 5th states: California, New Jersey, New York.
Her plan is based on the idea that Barack Obama is going to win South Carolina and she needs to be prepared to gain the major delegates in the Super Tuesday states. This is an idea that Hillary and her strategists will try to deny given any chance by the media.
What must this look like to the people of South Carolina? Well I've talked to enough voters in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to know that voters want to meet the candidates, they want to hear them speak, and they want to attend campaign events in their area. By leaving South Carolina to the care of Bill and Chelsea, to me, Hillary is effectively saying that she does not have the time to waste on voters in a state that she believes is fully going to go into Barack Obama's hands come Saturday. Too bad, maybe she could have actually convinced some people to vote for her between now and then.
Of course the press's spin on this issue has been hilarious- a total villification of this whole entire campaign strategy of leaving South Carolina voters high and dry. This caused Hillary to return to South Carolina for a bit today- just making a little appearance, reminding voters that she still "cares about them". Let's hope that South Carolina voters are smarter than that!
Second, Obama...
Obama's strategy, as it has been from the beginning is to build grassroots support in the February 5th states along with South Carolina. Obama is currently spending all of his time in South Carolina, leaving the 22 February 5th states up to his strong network of campaign staff.
Obama's campaign certainly has the capital to mount a full-fledged attack on the February 5th states after South Carolina's primary on Saturday. I expect to see Obama flying back and forth between all of these states during the next week.
I fully believe that a strong showing in California is exactly what Obama will need in order to secure the nomination. As of right now, according to all of the polls (and we know how polls can be), Hillary has a wide lead in California. However, it is my firm belief that the people in California are some of the most progressive Democrats in the United States. These are the type of people that appeal to Obama's message of change and hope in politics and these are the type of people who will show up to the polls and vote on election day. The Obama campaign needs to make sure that their message reaches these people in order to get the best showing and the most delegates in this state.
That's what it comes down to my friends, delegates. If you had asked me a year ago how I thought the primary process was going to play out, I would have mentioned something that I heard all throughout my government courses- after New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina, our nominee will be all but finalized, with the February 5th states mattering very little in the grand scheme of things. However, this time around, in the extremely close races both on the Democratic and Republican sides, nothing is decided and everything is still up in the air. Delegates are what matter in this primary season, no the big mo created in a 2-3 win in the big 3 primary states. It will all come down to the delegate count- done for the Democrats in a confusing proportional manner (if the whole superdelegate thing was not confusing enough!). The Obama campaign is focusing on winning as many delegates as possible to compete with Hillary's large superdelegate numbers and support in heavy delegate states such as New York and California. Hopefully, this strategy will work in favor of my candidate.
Finally, Edwards...
Oh Edwards. I expect Edwards to gain a strong vote from white voters in South Carolina that can identify with his son of the South attitude. However, after loosing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, I do not really see Edwards going anywhere towards gaining the nomination.
I firmly believe that Edwards is only still in the race to not only frustrate Hillary and Obama, but also to use his small but growing delegates as a way to gain a top position in whatever Democratic nominee's campaign, preferably Vice President. Because the battle over the nomination may very well come down to who has the most delegates, Edwards can use his delegates as a bribing chip to gain access to the Vice Presidential ticket. This event would not surprise me if Edwards does somewhat well in South Carolina.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see how this one plays out!

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