Everyone is engaged in deep speculation about Barack's VP choice. Everytime, a meeting is organized with a potential VP there is a buzz about a potential announcement. Many names have been tossed around like Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Chet Edwards , Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, Chuck Hagel and more. The one name that seems missing is that of Colin Powell. A decorated general, leader, former secretary of state and a decent man, he could provide a mix of gravitas and value to Barack Obama like none other. Barack Obama should consider General Powell very seriously and here are some few reasons for the same:
1. Anti Jeremiah Wright: No one can dispute that Jeremiah Wright's outbursts and dumb theology has caused Barack Obama much harm. His image as the Tiger Woods of politics instantly faded to the background and instead gave rise to massive speculation about the company he has kept over the years. Imagine another Jeremiah Wright episode as an October surprise(or non surprise!). Imagine, how effective a Colin Powell would be as an anti-dote to any potential venom the likes of Jeremiah Wright can inject into this campaign. Race will, is and will remain to be a key factor in this campaign and Obama's poll numbers seem to indicate the same. No White man can inoculate Obama from the likes of Jeremiah Wright as much as Colin Powell, period.
2. Bipartisanship: Colin Powell is a Republican and even served under President Bush as his chief diplomat. The message of change that Barack is trying to emphasize becomes very strong when he is willing to put his money where his mouth is and pick a Republican as his running mate. Imagine how effective Colin Powell would be in reaching out to the Republicans in the Senate and the house to bridge the differences and help achieve a common ground. There are very few people in Washington who do not respect Gen Powell's decency and honest approach.
Politically, this will force John Mccain to pick either Joe Liebermann or a moderate Republican like Tom Ridge or Tim Pawlenty and none of those choices would be palatable to the Republican right wing rank and file. This will peg Mccain back and enable Barack to get an opening to reach out to the independant and even Republican voters who are concerned to get things accomplished in Washington and bring meaningful change. This is a net positive.
3. National Security & Terrorism; No other VP choice can give Barack an advantage on National Security and the war on terror as Colin Powell. While, this may not be enough to entirely erase John Mccain's lead on this issue, it will definitely narrow it down from the current double digit advantage the he enjoys over Barack. This will also help Barack among democrats who might be genuinely considering voting for Mccain because of the same issue.
Just consider the worst case scenario of a possible domestic or international event related to either national security and terrrorism. Colin Powell would be the best antidote for any advantage that Mccain might try to create for himself.
This is a net positive.
4. Foreign Affairs: The role played by Colin Powell as leader of the allied forces during Operation Desert Storm and his later role in the Bush cabinet as Secretary of State further cements his credentials. This is also a net positive.
5. Economy: While Colin Powell may not offer any direct advantage in the economic front, he will be very useful to blunt Mccain's attempt to convert the economic depression into a disciussion on energy security and dependance on foreign oil. Colin Powell is an expert in the middle east and carries credibility on that topic every time he speaks. This is a net positive.
6. Judgement: Given Barack's lack of extensive national experience, he is trying to frame this debate into one of judgement. What better judgement could he demonstrate than be able to tell fellow Americans that he struggled to pick a VP from a plethora of capable, competent candidates and came up with the man who would be the best to lead this nation, should he not be in a position to do so. None question Colin Powell's readiness to be President. This is a net positive.
7. Balance: With a young and dynamic Barack Obama leading this ticket, Colin Powell adds the element of experience and gravitas to this ticket and provides it the even keel and balance. it requires.
8. National vs. Regional Appeal: While it can be very tempting to consider a VP choice based on a regional advantage like a Tim Kaine to help carry Virginia, an Evan Bayh to help carry Indiana or even a Hillary Clinton to help carry Florida or Ohio, Colin Powell will provide a national level bounce to Barack that none of these candidates can provide with no net negatives. A state like Virginia , Alaska or Texas with military bases will be fertile ground to let Powell loose and reap the benefits. Even in Florida, one should not underestimate Powell's popularity.
9. The Woman vote: George Bush showed in 2004 that it is possible to win a substantial number of women on the issue of national security and war on terror. While, it is clear that the economy is the main issue this time, one should not underestimate the potential women voters who might change their vote to John Mccain in the last minute because of a "feel good" factor. This cannot be explained but the democrats and Barack Obama should be very wary of this issue. It is not tangible or even well defined but its based more on a "X" factor. Colin Powell is Barack's best bet to inoculate against a potential late movement towards John Mccain like the one observed in 1980 towards Ronald Reagan.
10. Last but not the least, Colin Powell needs no introduction to most Americans and the Republicans will be very careful before launching any attacks against him. Since, once the Obama-Powell team is formed, it will be difficult to attack just Barack, ads will have to be very carefully worded and this will really increase the cost and time to market for the Mccain folks. Every little advantage counts in a close election.
The only negatives about Powell's selection would be the Iraq war decision and the fear amongst some that it would make the ticket racially imbalanced. Since John Mccain and most of the VP choices of both Mccain and Obama have voted for the Iraq war resolution, it might be a wash. Moreover, this might actually give Powell an opportunity to explain his perspective and praise Barack for his foresight often. The concern over the race issue would be a huge insult to Americans. In fact, Barack himself can address this in the best possible way without offending anyone. His speeech on race was very well received and most Americans of all races would welcome Powell's choice. It would only show that Barack Obama is not limited by race, political calculations or any other factor to do his best for the country he loves and hopes to lead one day. If this is a huge concern, he can balance this out by also simultaneously announcing a couple of cabinet appointments like a Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton or even Allan Greenspan!
Is selecting Colin Powell a litte risky given the dynamics of race ? Yes. But please tell me which other VP candidate comes with no risk.
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