Oct 18, 2008: My beloved Penn State Nittany Lions finally beating the Michigan Wolverines after 9 frustrating years... deeply satisfyingOctober 25, 2008: Penn State beating Ohio State at the "Horseshoe", Ohio Stadium; first time since 1978 ... fantasticOctober 28, 2008: Barack Obama leading in polls in VA, the Staunton News Leader endorses Obama, the Obama/Biden team's relentless ground game in Old Dominion rolls on, and Barack is scheduled to speak nearby in Harrisonburg, at the Convo at James Madison University ... PRICELESS!
GOTV ! EVERY DAY, EVERY WAY! FIRED UP... READY TO GO! YES WE CAN!
I haven't written in a while simply because I don't think anyone is reading my posts. However, I thought I would catch up with a few shorts posts all at once.
1. I attended the Obama rally in Roanoke last week. Very rainy and wet, but worth the wait. I was thrilled to be around so many who thought like I do. The shocker is that I am a lifelong Republican. Did I change or did the party shift to include me? I think a little of both.
2. While this campaign feels like it is taking forever to end, now is the time to become more active than ever. I have found several people who were voting McCain simply because they liked Palin. However, a serious discussion on the issues has changed every one of them (at least to my face) to support Obama. Talk to your friends about politics. It does work.
3. In two weeks, Sarah Palin will still be stupid and John McCain will still be eratic. I say this because there are lots of people out there who are afraid the GOP is going to make a comeback. They will try, but the reality is that they are down now because they are on the wrong side of the issues. They are on the wrong side of the issues because that is who they are. They cannot change their nature in the final two weeks.
4. Finally, if you really believe Obama is the best person for the job at this time, then you must vote. I know we are way ahead, but getting out to vote is so important right now. The GOP is going to push hard at churches, neighborhoods and book burnings to get their people to the polls. You need to do the same.
Now that the Federal Government has stepped in to purchase bad mortgages or "dirty paper" from ailing banks, it is time to cut the problem off at it's cause.
The reason big investment banks are failing is that nobody is sure how many of the sub-prime mortgages held are going to fail. When they need to write off more and more of the value of these mortgage back securities the investors call in their cash and the banks are forced into a liquidity crisis on how to provide that cash.
The Feds buying up these bad loans and providing the cash to the banks will save the banks. However, the problem still exists. The difference is who is going to take the hits. If those mortgages continue to go into default, the value of the underlying paper will continue to diminish.
So how to fix it? Now that the feds (with the approval of Congress, which has not yet happened) will be the holders of the mortgages, it is time to make a change to preserve the value of the mortgages. Obama should call for all the adjustable mortgages that are purchased by the federal government to be reverted back to the rates of their first year.
For instance, if the note called for a ARM of 5% in the first year, then the homeowner would be reverted back to the 5% rate and not the 9 or 10% rate that the note adjusted to. This would allow the homeowner to stay in the house and avoid foreclosure. We all know that the house would hold it's value and everyone would be better off it they can stay in the houses.
Once that is in place, the home owner would have time to either sell or refinance the house. The Feds might have to hold the note for a number of years in order to give the housing market time to absorb the refi or resale of the homes, but it would be much better than foreclosure.
This is exactly the time of out of the box thinking and for trying to fix the fundamental cause of this crisis. The cause is that the ARMs are adjusting up and people cannot afford the payments. If you fix that cause, then you fix the crisis at its root.
Prior to the conventions, you saw Bob Barr included in the polling numbers. In some states, he was carrying 5-8% of the poll for the Libertarian Party. But in recent polls, you don't even see Barr mentioned.
I only asked this because my wife got an automated poll call this weekend. It asked who she was likely to vote for Barack Obama, John McCain or undecided. If you were a Bob Barr supporter, you would likely answer John McCain (The stated goals of smaller, less intrusive govt works toward the Libertarian view). Of course, when the election day comes, Bob Barr will be listed on some 40 state ballots for President.
If my theory is correct, then those poll that do not list Bob Barr are giving anywhere from 5-8% of the poll to McCain. That would explain his jump in some polls.
This is just a theory. If anyone can address my logic, I would appreciate it.
Hi everyone,
We are hosting a phonebank at my house in Fishersville on Saturday, Sept 27th at 6PM. You can find the details here:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gs558p
This will be our first phonebank and dinner party. It is pot luck. Just bring a side dish or something you like. We will provide hot dogs and hamburgers. Be sure to bring your cell phones and chargers (just in case). We will have a list of undecideds and unregistered to call. If you haven't done calls before, it is alot of fun when done in a group. Lots of support and a nice way to get involved.
Pass the word. We set the limit to 15, but will happily increase the number if we need do. Just be sure to register or give me a call at 540 476-3529.
Thanks!
Brett
The Bush Doctrine (preemptive strikes against other nations) is the source of a number of major problems in this country. They are as follows:
1. The invasion of Iraq and the subsequent occupation has killed more Americans than the attack on September 11th, the Cole bombings, and the embassy bombings combined. However, no person who can read still thinks that Iraq had anything to do with Al Qaeda.
2. By invading Iraq when we really did not need to except for the purposes of nationalism, the Bush Administration has put us in the deepest deficit spending in history. 2008 has a deficit of about $440 Billion and 2009 is projected to be $500 Billion. When the deficit is high, then the dollar becomes weak because there are more t-bills on the market than there is demand. This in turns affects inflation. Since oil is denominated in US dollars, then a drop in the US dollar means oil costs us more. So in simple math it looks like this:
Invade Iraq = higher deficits = weak dollar = inflation = high oil prices
3. The Bush Doctrine of preemptive strikes has weakened our relationships with our allies. Now the Fox News set seems to believe that we can just run rough-shod over our allies and their concerns. However, we live in a global community where getting things done involves us working well with others.
So in summary, a candidate who does not understand the implications and consequences of the Bush Doctrine is likely to continue those mistakes.
Obama's Field General in Virginia, Mitch Stewart, is seeing solid statistical success from the aggressive surge of his blue troopers across the state. The count of Forward Operating Bases (local Virginia Obama HQ's) has recently topped 41.
From WashPo "State election officials told the [Obama] campaign Friday [9/5/08] that 49,000 new voters signed up in August, a sharp increase from the 36,500 who signed up in July and the 28,000 who registered in June."
"...the August gain puts the Obama campaign very much on track toward its goal of signing up 150,000 new voters by the early October voter registration deadline, on top of the 142,000 new voters who registered during primary season.""... [new voters]could add up to about 1.75 percent of the anticipated state vote... ""Nationally, more than 2 million Democrats have been added to the rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation, according to the Associated Press. Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states during the same period."
Okay, here are some of my thoughts that you are welcome to use in your discussions.
"Jesus Christ was a community organizer. Pontius Pilot was a governor." --borrowed from a t-shirt on Cafe Press
"I thought Sarah Palin was supposed to be tough? You mean we can no longer use the word "lipstick" just because she used it as a joke?"
"The Republican Party used to say Democrats were the party of victims. It appears the tables have turned."
"While Sarah Palin is a good speaker, nice to look at and can be funny, we are in the process of selecting our next President and Vice President. If the criteria was to be decent looking, good in front of a crowd and funny, we would have selected Jerry Seinfeld long ago."
Over the past few weeks, I have seen some pretty ugly treatment in my local community of Waynesboro, Virginia. It seems that by supporting Barack for President, people think they can treat me any way they like. It is very much in line with the atmosphere at the GOP convention.
First, you need to know a little about me. I stand 6'6" and am in pretty good shape. I am a former Marine Sergeant and have a nice flat top hair cut. I have been Republican all my life. I am a businessman who is very active in Rotary and in charitable causes. This might explain why the following events are kinda shocking.
I attended a Wine Festival which is put on by the Greater Augusta Chamber of Commerce. I wore my Obama t-shirt. As soon as I arrived, an elderly couple who I did no know walked up to me and started yelling at me that I am ruining the country. Dumbfounded, I pointed out that I am not ruining the country, but instead they should call George Bush. Obviously, they didn't get the joke.
At the same event, I ran into several people whom I know. All of them where openly angry with me for supporting Obama. One called me un-patriotic. Another said I was supporting the terrorists.
Last week I was in town to get my flat top fixed. As I entered the barber shop, I ran into a guy I have known for 15 years. He is a realtor who has made several hundred thousand dollars from me (I do a good bit of commerical real estate development). From about 50 feet away and in front of five people, he yelled that I was ill informed and was ruining the country. He then went on to tell me that I was stupid. I told him that I did not leave the GOP, but they left me. Obviously, he did not get the point.
My wife was told by a complete stranger that her bumper sticker on her vehicle was going to be removed when my wife left her car.
So here is the new deal: While these people are terrified of Obama being President. They should be more concerned of their immediate health and well being in confronting me on the street. No longer will I be polite about it. An no longer will I put up with their insults. I am going out today to get a few more t-shirts so I can represent my political views every day.
Last night, Sarah Palin spoke at the Republican National Convention. She was much more polished than she was last week when McCain introduced her. She did a good job and even made a few jokes that were off the script.
Alot of Obama supporters may feel that the tide is slipping away. The media is suddenly very positive on Palin and McCain, the crowd was more excited than we have seen thus far, and they pounded on Barack all night long. I am here to tell you to keep your chin up.
The bounce the GOP is getting is normal. They have had a rough week, what with all the hurricanes and pregnant teens and such. But tonight John McCain needs to speek and we will hear alot of the same. But what we won't hear is the following:
1. McCain and Palin want to eliminate a woman's right to choose. (Sarah's daughter made a choice, your daughter won't have a choice.)
2. The McCain/Palin ticket will destroy an already weak federal budget. By lowering tax revenues, while not reducing the expenditures in the war in Iraq, McCain will likely increase the federal deficit from the current state of $500 Billion in 2009. (See http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=12009710)
3. You won't hear any mention of the housing crisis, unemployment, inflation, a weak dollar, jobs going overseas, equal pay for equal work, or how to fix our schools. (Vouchers are a new form of segregation and busing.)
So keep your chin up, eventually, when McCain and Palin can't control the message, these issues will be discussed. And when they are, we will see why the GOP cannot win in November.
First, I agree with Barack that Palin's 17 year old daughter is not part of the political discussion. The fact that she is underage and pregnant is a non-issue in and of itself. However, what is up for discussion is John McCain's judgement and vetting of Sarah Palin.
If we set aside her complete lack of any relevant experience, you are still left wondering why John McCain would pick a running mate without truly understand and knowing her background. It is obvious that she was picked because she was a woman. John McCain is not putting "country first" as he says.
If John McCain is elected president, and if the statistics hold true and he does not survive the next four years, we will be left with a president who just last year got her first passport. Even more frightening is the thought of her getting the "Three AM phone call".
The issue that needs to be discussed is John McCain's judgement in this matter. If he is just playing politics in order to get elected, then he is taking a huge gamble with all our futures. And that, my friends, is open for discussion.
Last night as my wife and I were watching Barack's acceptance speech, I was struck by the real sense that history has been made. I was born in 1968. All my life, I knew of Dr. King's Dream speech. It felt like it was old and historical, even when I heard it in the 80's. I subconsciously put it in the same column as FDR, JFK and other older leaders.
But last night, in watching the faces of the people, I saw that it was very much a modern call to action. It was a call not just to African Americans, but to all Americans. We are finally nearing the point where a person can be judged not by the color of their skin, but by the content of their character.
We are all very fortunate to be living through these times.
On the same subject, yesterday I told friends at Rotary that I considered Obama's skin color as important as his shoe size. But the fact is that in spite of the racism that still exists in this country, Barack has achieved greatness. That is history made.
There is a new slander email running around which completely mistates Obama's tax plan.
Here are the major points of the slander email and the truths:
Slander: OBAMA28% on profit from ALL home salesHow does this affect you? If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.
Truth: Obama calls for capital gains rate of those making less than $250,000 to remain the same. For those over $250,000 the rate will be 20%.
Slander: Obama's would raise dividend taxes to 39.6%
Truth: Dividend taxes will not be taxed as ordinary income. For those earning over $250,000 dividends will be taxed at 20%. For those under $250,000 income, the rate would remain at 15%. For seniors earning less than $50,000 there would be no tax.
Slander: Obama will revert all the tax rates to pre-Bush tax cuts.
Truth: Only those making over $250,000 would be taxed at higher rates than today. All other rates remain the same.
There are dozens of other examples out there of the mistatements on Obama's tax plan. I recommend that everyone read the full plan, print it out and show it to the people who forward you the slander email.
By the way, in case you think I am excited about taxing the "rich" keep in mind that I make more than $250,000 a year and would pay higher taxes. However, I do believe that the benefits of a balanced budget, investment in alternative energy, and a return to the US as a moral leader in the world will more than offset any tax increase I pay.
Again, confront the lies with facts and challenge people on the fence to read the plans.
SAW for Obama Team:
If you can make it to the Augusta County Fair, this week, in Fishersville -- please wear your Obama gear! Show support for Mark Warner and Sam Rasoul, too!!!
Please visit the joint SAW Democratic booth and say HI! Come by our booth and buy more Demo team gear!
Meet our new national Obama support team staff -- they'll be working the crowd each day -- registering voters!
STAND and BE COUNTED! SHOW AUGUSTA COUNTY -THIS IS OUR YEAR!
YES WE CAN!
From the Huffington Post - Off-the-Bus
Hi Everyone,
Great news on the Zogby Electoral College map. It shows Obama winning 273 to McCain's 146 with 119 too close to call.
You can see the map here: http://www.zogby.com/50state/
If you are in a state too close to call like I am (Virginia) then it is very important that you get out the vote. Talk to your friends and families and be prepared to follow up on November 3rd to remind and November 4th to confirm they voted.
These polls can change quickly. Don't become complacent.
This week, I have heard 3 different talking heads on television call Virginia a swing state. While we may live in a Republican stronghold, your vote and those of the people you know matters. Think of it as one vote at a time. Here is short list of things you can do in your every day life that will make a difference:
1. Get a bunch of Obama t-shirts and wear them wherever you go. I wore mine to the Day Lilley festival. I was verbally attacked by a number of people who knew me and a few who did not. But it got them thinking that if I support Obama then maybe there is something to look at.
2. Buy 2 copies of the Audacity of Hope. (about $14 each) Read one for and keep one to lend to undecideds. I have a copy that is marked with little flags on sections I think are interesting. (For instance, you may have heard that Barack attended a Muslim school as a child, which he did. But he also attended a Catholic school.)
3. When talking to people, don't get angry. Have a list of 3 major reasons why you support Barack. Learn the facts and talk about what he will do. Don't talk about McCain or attack him. Here is what I say:
"We are lucky to have two candidates that both want the same things for America: peace and prosperity. I support Barack Obama because I believe in his plans to make America a better place. I support him specifically because of his stance on Energy policy, the Iraq war and education. I truly respect John McCain, but don't think his policies are right for the country right now."
4. When people say crazy stuff about Obama, challenge it with the facts. Don't let someone say he is a secret muslim, a socialist or even the anti-christ (I heard that one this week)
5. Get a bumper sticker and put it on your car.
6. Bring up politics with your friends. Ask them who they are supporting and why. Listen. Some people are simply voting Republican because they always vote that way. If you know the issues, discuss them seriously without apology. Don't argue, though. Instead, think about why they are saying the things they say.
7. If you have someone on the fence, and you don't feel like you can talk about the issues, then bring them to an event or contact me or someone in the campagn to have a cup or coffee with them and you to discuss the issues.
These are just my methods, there are many others. Remember, for the first time in a generation Virginia is up for grabs. You can be part of the awakening. Look to your friends, co-workers and family and see if you can add a few votes to the cause.
Finally, keep a list of all the people you convert and be sure to call them the day before and the day of the election to make sure they vote.
Okay,
I have a bit of info that may help those of you trying to explain how the Obama tax policy will affect people of higher means. Here is what I have based on the proposal to reverse the Bush tax cuts:
Under the current tax rates (2008), a Married, Filing Jointly couple who makes $500,000 in taxable income pays $146,575 in federal income taxes.
If the rate at the top is changed from the current marginal rate of 35% to the previous marginal rate of 39%, then that same couple would pay $152,267 in federal income taxes.
That amounts to about $6,000 per year.
However, if done correctly, then the increase in taxes along with everything else staying the same, would lower the budget deficit significantly. ($200,000,000 by some estimates). That would do a number of things:
1. It would lower the national debt.
2. Which would then strengthen the US Dollar.
3. Which would lower inflation.
4. Which would translate to lower commercial debt costs (Weighted Averge Cost of Capital is tied to inflation)
5. Which would increase GDP growth.
6. Which would increase income and federal tax receipts.
7. Which would further lower the deficit spending and lower the national debt.
All of this would come from the top income earners paying a little more in taxes.
