1%, or 1 vote out of 100There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different. More than half were decided by less than a 2% margin.
In 2004, 57,787 votes would have given us President Kerry.In 2000, 269 votes would have given us President GoreIn 1996, 575,515 votes would have given us President Dole.
From ABC News:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2008/09/squeakers.html
=========="Squeakers"Ned PotterABC NewsSeptember 29, 2008How close have Presidential elections been? Closer, perhaps, than we ever guessed. Mike Sheppard, a grad student in statistics at Michigan State, has done a mathematical exercise that shows it.He ran a computer program to answer this question: "What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?"The answer: in some years, very, very few. Take a look at his analysis HERE. It shows the powerful interaction between the popular vote and the electoral college.[...]==========
Full article here:http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2008/09/squeakers.html
Detailed analysis here, including colored maps:https://www.msu.edu/~sheppa28/elections.html-Mike Sheppard
Through letters to editors , internet forums and public blogs should we promote the idea that super delegates should reflect the majority votes of their state in their vote ?
A little over three weeks ago, Brandon Hurlbut showed up in Wilmington as the state director for the Obama Delaware campaign. It was a nice title, but he had no staff, no offices, and nowhere to stay. And the most recent poll in Delaware showed Hillary Clinton with a 24 point lead over Barack.
But what Brandon had was so much more important -- he had the help and support and enthusiasm of hundreds of dedicated volunteers in the state.
That contagious energy and enthusiasm led to the donation of our HQ office on Orange Street and our office opening party on January 19. It's what produced volunteers every single day who showed up to make phone calls. It's what kept our kitchen well-stocked with food. It's what drew 2,700 people to see Michelle in Wilmington and Dover, and what led 20,000 people to come out on a perfect Sunday afternoon to see Barack in Rodney Square. More importantly, that energy and enthusiasm is what led to an army of volunteers hitting the streets and phones on Election Day to get our supporters to the polls.
Last night, all of your efforts paid off. We won a decisive 11 point victory that demonstrated strength not only in New Castle County, but also Kent and Sussex Counties. We showed that Barack could attract not only African American voters in Wilmington, but also rural, white voters in the southern part of the state. This ability to put together a broad coalition of voters is the key to Barack becoming the Democratic nominee and the next President of the United States.
True to its motto of being the First State, Delaware led the way last night.
I'll post photos in the coming days, but I just wanted to thank everyone for what you've helped us accomplish. The entire campaign staff will be eternally grateful to all of you.
A year ago, Nicole was a community organizer in San Francisco. For six years, she worked at the grassroots level to help people improve their neighborhoods and communities. She didn’t get involved in national electoral politics – something about the process just turned her off.
Two days ago, Nicole stood on a stage in Wilmington, DE and rallied a crowd of 20,000 to vote for Barack. She had them take out their cell phones and call undecided voters. She told them the same thing she has been saying on the streets of San Francisco for half a decade: you have the power to change your world.
Today Nicole is back on the streets, urging voters to get to the polls.
Michelle at Delaware State University
It has been a big week for politics in Delaware. Last Thursday Michelle came and drew the biggest crowds she has ever drawn on the campaign trail. Nearly 3,000 people came out to hear her speak at the Grand Opera House in Wilmington and at Delaware State University in Dover.
Women for (Michelle) Obama
Listening to Michelle in Wilmington
And Sunday Barack made history, when his speech in downtown Wilmington drew the largest crowd – over 20,000 people – in recent Delaware memory. People crowded in for blocks around Rodney Square to listen to his message of hope and change.
Barack was welcomed to the stage (after Nicole had made her pitch) by Delaware State Treasurer Jack Markell and Lieutenant Governor John Carney, who are currently running hard against each other for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. They showed grace and unity in raising their hands, together, for Barack.
Kayla, Ben and Reina arrive early to help organize the crowd
Delaware is known as the First State because it was the first to ratify the Constitution. Today, Nicole is doing everything she can to ensure that Delaware continues to embrace real change, and says to the world, “Yes We Can!”
Obama volunteers on election day in Wilmington, DE
Rep. Patrick Kennedy came to Wilmington today to meet with a group of seniors and Latino leaders. But he also came to canvass. After giving a pep talk to our staff and volunteers, he hit the streets. If he can do it, so can you.
Polls are open from 7 a.m., and we're not going to stop working until the polls close at 8 p.m. Even if you only have a few hours to spare, call HQ at 573-2540, and we'll send you to the office closest to you. Or if you'd rather cook, we need food at all of our offices. We've run a great campaign so far, but it won't mean anything if we don't get our supporters to the polls on Tuesday.
Barack Obama to Host “Stand for Change” Rally in Delaware on Sunday
WILMINGTON, DE – Senator Barack Obama will host a Stand for Change Rally at Rodney Square in Wilmington to fire up supporters and undecided primary-goers ahead of the Feb. 5th primary.
EVENT INFORMATION:
WHAT: Stand for Change Rally with Barack Obama
WHERE : Rodney Square
Corner of 10th and Market Street
Wilmington, DE 19801
WHEN: February 3, 2008
Gates Open: 11:30 AM
Program Begins: 1:15 PM
The event is free and open to the public, but an RSVP is strongly encouraged. Please RSVP by visiting www.de.barackobama.com/wilmington or call 302-573-2540.
***For security reasons, bags are not allowed inside the event. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners are permitted.***
Former Clinton Administration official Greg Craig came to Wilmington today to campaign for Barack. Greg worked at the State Department under Secretary of State Albright and also coordinated President Clinton's impeachment case. He is a foreign policy advisor to the Obama campaign.
While in Wilmington, he spoke to students at Widener University and to local lawyers and business leaders. He stopped by HQ afterwards to give a pep talk to the staff.
This election is about the past and our future
Americans today are unsatisfied . With our economy , with our involvement in an unnecessary war , with health care , with drug costs , with illegal emegrants , with the lack of an energy policy , with global warming , with the lack of leadership in Washington . They want to know there are answers to our problems , and they thirst for someone to represent their hopes at a national level .
Should we expect a long term Senator or Governor steeped in government policy to pull us out of our doldrums and solve serious long term embeded problems? No! They have been part of the problems . They are the status quo . They naturaly resist change .
Barack Obama presents himself as the best answer to America today . He is a one term US Senator from Illinois .A Harvard graduate . A community organizer from South Chicago . A teacher of Constitutional law . A husband , father of two . And , in no small way , a gifted orator .
Barack Obama knows what problems we face . He will select the best minds to attack these problems , and will provide them everything necessary to solve the problems . He originates the direction and inspiration of our aspirations , he will lead us to the road of recovery . He can . We can . Yes , America can !
