Sen. Barack Obama's $52 million haul in the month of June is nearly certain to quiet whispers that his vaunted fundraising machine had slowed, and seems to justify his decision last month to opt out of public financing for the general election.
Obama's campaign announced this morning the $52 million take and that Obama had ended the month, his first as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, with $72 million in the bank.
"You continue to prove what ordinary Americans committed to change can accomplish, despite the Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs funding so much of our opponents' campaign," wrote campaign manager David Plouffe in an e-mail to supporters announcing the news that doubled as a fundraising pitch of its own.
"As I mentioned in my video message to you earlier in the week, we're facing a Republican machine with unprecedented resources at its disposal," writes Plouffe. "The McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee finished June with nearly $100 million in the bank."
While the money chase tends to get outsized attention in the media -- it's easily quantifiable and the numbers are BIG -- it's impossible to overstate how much money matters in the race between Obama and John McCain.
Obama's decision to opt out of public financing for the general election -- the first presidential candidate to do so since the system was put in place in the early 1970s -- means that money will be front and center to every strategic decision made by both sides in the coming months.
Obama took a calculated risk in opting out: that his fundraising advantage over McCain would be large enough to justify the time and energy it takes to collect hundreds of millions of dollars.
So, how did he do in his first month as the nominee?
That depends on who is doing the analyzing.
Obama soared well above the $30 million figure laid out in the Wall Street Journal (and vehemently disputed by the campaign at the time) but well below the $100 million number that some Democratic fundraisers floated.
Compared to the cash-collecting performance by Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) following his own securing of the nomination, Obama measured up well.
Kerry collected $44 million in March 2004, the first full month it was clear that he would be the Democratic nominee. That was a huge spike from the $8.4 million he had raised in February and the $7.6 million (including a $3.5 million loan) he collected in January of that year. All tolled for his primary campaign, Kerry raised $249 million; Obama, as of the end of June, had collected $347 million -- all but a few million of which is in primary dollars.
Obama did not set his own personal fundraising record for a month. The $52 million in June was close but not quite as much as the $56.7 million the campaign raised in February. In that, Obama is the victim of his own successes; had he not raised $136 million in the first three months of the year (Kerry raised $60 million during that time in 2004, McCain raised just $39.7 in that same time period this cycle), there would be no question about the unmitigated success of Obama's fundraising.
Taken broadly, what Obama's June fundraising number means is that rumors of his fundraising machine's demise have been vastly exaggerated. Obama continues to compete only with his past eye-popping totals when it comes to cash collection and, due to the relatively small average contribution to his campaign ($68 in June), he continues to grow a massive list of donors who can keep giving as he turns his attention to raising money for the general election.
If Obama can put together four more months of $50 million raised, he will have $200 million to spend on the general election; more than double the $84 million that McCain will get from the public financing system. (UPDATE: The Fix, no math whiz, has been informed by several smart sources that the previous calculation is not entirely accurate. Of the $52 million Obama raised in June, jusr $2 million was for the general election. Therefore, Obama needs to find a way to continue to raise considerable cash for the primary -- until he becomes the party's formal nominee in late August -- AND collect money for the general election, a more daunting feat that was made clear above.)
It now seems clear that Obama is positioned to enjoy a significant financial edge over McCain in the general election.
It's important to remember that money, especially at the presidential level, is not determinative of the outcome as demonstrated by McCain's underfunded run to the Republican nomination earlier this year.
But, any campaign or candidate would rather have more money to spend than their opponent coming down the home stretch. And, as of today, Obama seems likely to be in that position when summer turns to fall.
By Chris Cillizza | July 17, 2008; 10:05 AM ET | Category: Eye on 2008 Previous: Fix Pick: Get To Know Sheldon Adelson |
I first began to really take note of Obama months ago, not because he was winning states and delegates, because his speeches began to move me. His heart and passion were infectious. I was torn; I was even placed in a dilemma that I had not faced in a long time politically. I have always been politically active and usually know whom I'm voting for far in advance of an election. My first choice as far back as last year had always been Hillary. This is probably due to her experience in the White House and how she has always carried herself. Add to that, my love and respect for Bill that has endured since he left office. However, the question that came to the surface was, "What gives Hillary any MORE experience than Obama to be Commander and Chief?" Also, "Does Obama have any less or any more experience as a senator or an American than any other candidate that has ever ran for office before him?" I think not.
This opened my eyes and allowed me to actually listen and hear what he was saying. He seriously moves me with an eloquence, vision, passion, and sincerity that I only wish could be found more often. Unfortunately, people like that are eaten alive in politics and in life and so he possesses another quality that I respect- shrewdness and wisdom. Without those qualities guiding his words and actions through the campaign, Hillary, McCain and others would have eaten him alive and discounted him the way she is still trying to do. He has a reserved tenacity that I have perceived... not too harsh on Hillary yet willing to attack her with words that all but the more sophisticated of us can read into and say, "Ah ha, that was a good attack back at her."
Some say he isn’t strong enough but, as time goes on, I and my father say, he is more than able and possesses the stamina to take on a powerhouse like Hillary and a formidable opponent like McCain.
