1%, or 1 vote out of 100There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different. More than half were decided by less than a 2% margin.
In 2004, 57,787 votes would have given us President Kerry.In 2000, 269 votes would have given us President GoreIn 1996, 575,515 votes would have given us President Dole.
From ABC News:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2008/09/squeakers.html
=========="Squeakers"Ned PotterABC NewsSeptember 29, 2008How close have Presidential elections been? Closer, perhaps, than we ever guessed. Mike Sheppard, a grad student in statistics at Michigan State, has done a mathematical exercise that shows it.He ran a computer program to answer this question: "What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?"The answer: in some years, very, very few. Take a look at his analysis HERE. It shows the powerful interaction between the popular vote and the electoral college.[...]==========
Full article here:http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2008/09/squeakers.html
Detailed analysis here, including colored maps:https://www.msu.edu/~sheppa28/elections.html-Mike Sheppard
Have you seen this? Obama really needs to take a stand on this ASAP. He could demonstrate that he is more thorough, thoughtful, and more willing to take a stand than John McCain is. People on the streets that I talk to canvassing are SO hungry for this. Barack has to stand up to specific things like this to show people that he means business and is more than just fancy talking points. We MUST work to get Section 8 removed from the bailout bill ASAP!! Email your congressmen today. (See more info below) Thanks for all your work everyone!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/22/dirty-secret-of-the-bailo_n_128294.html
Dirty Secret Of The Bailout: Thirty-Two Words That None Dare Utter September 22, 2008 02:06 PM
A critical - and radical - component of the bailout package proposed by the Bush administration has thus far failed to garner the serious attention of anyone in the press. Section 8 (which ironically reminds one of the popular name of the portion of the 1937 Housing Act that paved the way for subsidized affordable housing ) of this legislation is just a single sentence of thirty-two words, but it represents a significant consolidation of power and an abdication of oversight authority that's so flat-out astounding that it ought to set one's hair on fire. It reads, in its entirety: Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency. In short, the so-called "mother of all bailouts," which will transfer $700 billion taxpayer dollars to purchase the distressed assets of several failed financial institutions, will be conducted in a manner unchallengeable by courts and ungovernable by the People's duly sworn representatives. All decision-making power will be consolidated into the Executive Branch - who, we remind you, will have the incentive to act upon this privilege as quickly as possible, before they leave office. The measure will run up the budget deficit by a significant amount, with no guarantee of recouping the outlay, and no fundamental means of holding those who fail to do so accountable. Is this starting to sound familiar? Robert Kuttner cuts through much of the gloss in an article in today's American Prospect: The deal proposed by Paulson is nothing short of outrageous. It includes no oversight of his own closed-door operations. It merely gives congressional blessing and funding to what he has already been doing, ad hoc. He plans to retain Wall Street firms as advisors to decide just how to cut deals to value and mop up Wall Street's dubious paper. There are to be no limits on executive compensation for the firms that get relief, and no equity share for the government in exchange for this massive infusion of capital. Both Obama and McCain have opposed the provision denying any judicial review of decisions made by Paulson -- a provision that evokes the Bush administration's suspension of normal constitutional safeguards in its conduct of foreign policy and national security. [...] The differences between this proposed bailout and the three closest historical equivalents are immense. When the Reconstruction Finance Corporation of the 1930s pumped a total of $35 billion into U.S. corporations and financial institutions, there was close government supervision and quid pro quos at every step of the way. Much of the time, the RFC became a preferred shareholder, and often appointed board members. The Home Owners Loan Corporation, which eventually refinanced one in five mortgage loans, did not operate to bail out banks but to save homeowners. And the Resolution Trust Corporation of the 1980s, created to mop up the damage of the first speculative mortgage meltdown, the S&L collapse, did not pump in money to rescue bad investments; it sorted out good assets from bad after the fact, and made sure to purge bad executives as well as bad loans. And all three of these historic cases of public recapitalization were done without suspending judicial review. Kuttner's opposition here is perhaps the strongest language I've seen used, pushing back on this piece of legislation, in any publication of repute, and even here, Section 8 is not cited by name or by content. McClatchy Newspapers also alludes to Section 8 with concern, citing the "unfettered authority" that Paulson would be granted, and noting that the "law also would preclude court review of steps Paulson might take, something Joshua Rosner, managing director of economic researcher Graham Fisher & Co. in New York, said could be used to mask previous illegal activity." Jack Balkin also gives the matter the sort of attention it deserves on his blog, Balkinization. But elsewhere, the conversation is muted. The debate over whether Congress is going to pass the Paulson bailout package, or pass the Paulson bailout package really hard seems to have boiled down to a discussion of time and concessions. The White House has made it clear that they want this package passed yesterday. Congressional Democrats seem to be of different minds on the matter, with some pushing back hard, and others content to demand a small dollop of turd polish to make the package seem more aesthetically pleasing, at which point, they'll likely roll over and pass the bill. Neither candidate, John McCain or Barack Obama, seem all that amenable toward the bailout, but neither have either demonstrated that they are willing to risk their candidacies to do much more than exploit the issue for electoral purposes. Sunday morning came and went, with Paulson traipsing dutifully from studio to studio, facing nary a question on Section 8. Front page articles in the New York Times, Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal detail the wranglings, but make no mention of this section of the legislation. On TV, cable news networks are stuck in the fog of the ongoing presidential campaign. Throughout the coverage, one catches a whiff of what seems like substantive pushback on this power grab, but it largely amounts to a facsimile of journalistic diligence. Most note, in general terms, that the bailout represents a set of "broad powers" that will be granted to the Department of the Treasury. Yet the coverage offsets these concerns through the constant hyping of the White House's overall message of "urgency." But one cannot overstate this: Section 8 is a singularly transformative sentence of economic policy. It transfers a significant amount of power to the Executive Branch, while walling off any avenue for oversight, and offering no guarantees in return. And if the Democrats end up content with winning a few slight concessions, they risk not putting a stop-payment on the real "blank check" - the one in which they allow the erosion of their own powers. Over in the Senate, Christopher Dodd has proposed a bailout legislation of his own, which critically calls for "an oversight board that not only includes the chairman of the Federal Reserve and the SEC, but congressionally appointed, non-governmental officials" and would require the President to appoint an "independent inspector general to investigate the Treasury asset program." In Dodd's legislation, Section 8 is effectively stripped from the bill. Nevertheless, the fact that Section 8 of the Paulson plan seems to strike few as a de facto dealbreaker can and should astound. The failure of Congress to hold the line on this point would be truly embarrassing. But if we make it through this week with nobody in the......
Dear Editor,
Endless, pointless war, and an overabundance of belligerence promising more.
Environmental destruction and plunder, as the world becomes warmer and warmer.
Ten trillion dollars in national debt, causing skyrocketing inflation and threatening federal bankruptcy.
This is what the Republican Party has bestowed upon the country.
Isn't it time to elect someone intelligent for a change?
Sincerely,
Paul Bailey
Legend has it that while the brave Odysseus was off fighting the Trojan War, his wife Penelope stayed home, fending off suitors, waiting faithfully for her warrior husband to return home. Odysseus eventually returned to Greece and became a great king.Few, however, are familiar with the sordid details of this story.Odysseus did not earn his commission in the Greek army; his father was a famous general, and although Odysseus performed poorly in training, he was elevated through the ranks as a legacy.While in Troy, Odysseus spent very little time fighting; in fact, he was captured very shortly after arriving, and so was unable to help the Greek cause as he sat in jail.Upon returning home to Penelope, Odysseus dumped his adoring wife in order to remarry a young, beautiful, rich heiress who he felt could do much more to further his career.
For the next several years, Odysseus relentlessly used the story of his participation in the Trojan War to solicit prestigious appointments with the aristocracy throughout the land.
In order to ascend to the throne, he clung to those in power while ridiculing a much more talented rival who was beloved by all of the people. However, the powers that be sided with the deceitful Odysseus, and declared to the public that the rival was too "inexperienced" to be king, and so coronated Odysseus.Thereafter, the glory of Greece crumbled, as the inept Odysseus provoked other nations, and implemented inscription to fight many failed wars. The natural resources of the country were plundered by those who had helped Odysseus rise to power, and the wealth of the country was squandered to the point of bankruptcy.
Dear Editor, The recent conflict between Russia and Georgia exposes how truly desperate our position in the world has become. The dreams of global domination, advocated at the end of the twentieth century by the Project for a New American Century and other neoconservative think tanks, have manifested themselves as the nightmares of today. Our dependence on oil has only been exacerbated by the policies of the current administration, as has the severity of our vast national debt. Thus we borrow money from rivals such as Russia and China and build pipelines through foreign lands such as Georgia to feed our addiction. Our army is exhausted and preoccupied in an unwise, unjustified, and unnecessary war. We have no moral, financial, or military leverage to bring to bare when an international crisis arises. In the meantime, policy makers have intentionally censored the results of the majority of the scientific community, postponing our eventual confrontation with the potentially greater pending disaster of climate change. Chest pounding and empty, ill-defined notions of "leadership" will not elevate us out of the pit in which we find ourselves. Only true intelligence, problem solving skills, and the willingness to cooperate with our neighbors abroad can address this situation. Thus I humbly submit that the times require an intellectual in the White House. Rambo should sit this one out. Sincerely, Paul Bailey, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Southern Arkansas University
On Saturday, July 26, 2008, citizens of Hot Springs, Arkansas, participated in a Platform Meeting. This is a synopsis of the positions discussed in our meeting, followed by positions submitted separately by various Obama supporters. Consensus PositionsAgricultureThe global food distribution system faces serious problems in the upcoming years. Large corporations buy land from local farmers in countries around the globe, leaving the populations helpless to produce their own food in future generations, causing poverty and starvation. The types of food mass produced on the resulting corporate farms are selected for profit as opposed to nutrition. This food must then be transported to those who have the money to buy it, unnecessarily using limited energy resources. We wish to produce healthier food, reinvigorate rural areas, and eliminate wasted transportation costs, by encouraging local food distribution.We wish to help cool our cities by encouraging urban farms, building gardens on the roofs of existing high rises, and designing future buildings with terraces to be used for local food production.We support the elimination of subsidies to large corporate farms, and the use of antitrust law, where possible, to break up agricultural monopolies.While we understand the absolute necessity of renewable energy, we must ensure that its production does not significantly impact the production of food.Energy and the EnvironmentNobel laureate Al Gore has challenged the nation:"America must commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and other clean sources within 10 years."Our group unanimously and vigorously endorses the Gore Challenge.We must invest in affordable public transportation and carbon-free personal transportation. We must eliminate subsidies to and tax loopholes for oil and coal companies.We support investment in easily accessible and safe bicycle lanes, eliminating carbon exhaust as well as enhancing fitness.We must address the wastefulness of our society. As we fill our own landfills, we ship spent electronic devices overseas to pollute third world countries. Our nation needs to move away from this disgraceful practice.We support investment in recycling programs in urban, suburban, and rural communities.We support the Use It or Loose It approach to oil leases, and oppose granting additional drilling leases in ecologically sensitive areas at this time.Media ReformA prerequisite for a healthy democracy is the dissemination of accurate information reflecting multiple points of view. The recent consolidation of news sources poses a serious danger to this critical need.We support the use of antitrust law to break up existing media monopolies.We support the reintroduction of the Fairness Doctrine.Constitutional RespectThe legislative, executive, and judicial branches of our government should honor, respect, and actively promote the Bill of Rights and all constitutional guarantees.TerrorismOur government must produce, publish, and advertise a DEFINITION of the word TERRORISM prior to using it in any public communication.Additional Positions (submitted separately)Animal CrueltyWe support the prevention of animal abuse and cruelty, which often is a precursor to the abuse of humans.Women's RightsWe support the Equal Rights Amendment, which states: "Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any state on account of sex."RetirementWe are committed to preserving Social Security. It is a compact across the generations that has helped tens of millions of Americans live their retirement years in dignity instead of poverty.We oppose privatizing Social Security or raising the retirement age. Because the massive deficits under the Bush Administration have raided hundreds of billions of dollars from Social Security, the most important step we can take to strengthen Social Security is to restore fiscal responsibility.EducationWe are committed to enhancing support for the education of all children, from pre-kindergarten through college. Better education breeds economic growth.ImmigrationWe are committed to finalizing comprehensive immigration reform. We recognize the positive contributions to our economy and culture which have come from new members to our society. There is much to learn and nothing to fear from those who may initially seem foreign.
National Debt
We support a constitutional amendment requiring that the federal budget be balanced. Our astronomical national debt is destroying our economy, and needs to be eliminated as soon as possible through a completely redesigned progressive tax code, whereafter tax rates are AUTOMATICALLY linked to spending.
Military Spending
We spend vastly more money on weapons systems than any other country in the world, while our national debt sky-rockets. By forming strong alliances and cutting waste, we should be able to dramatically cut our military spending.
Inspiration, what an intresting phenomenon. It is one of the most complex of emotions. It is what turns noise into music and stone into sculpture. It is what built all empires and what will eventually bring them all to the ground. It is why we worship or why we refuse to do so. It is found in all peoples, from the brilliant minds of Shakespear and Einstein to the modest hearts of single mothers and weary workers. It comes in all shapes, from the timeless works of Da Vinci to the kind gesture of the businessman. It comes in all sizes, from the Eiffel Tower to the gracious tip. It can't be held. It can't be constructed. It can't be bought or sold. It is not predjudice to whom it shall strike, nor to whom it shall benefit. Many are skeptical of its ability, usually because of the medium in which it is presented. Many are wary of the "offensive" hip-hop artists' lyrics or the "pornography" that is Michelangelo's David. Many avoid the performances of theatre fags or refuse to believe the words of the charismatic politician. Some overstimulate themselves in it, chasing it in the form of drugs or sexual deviancy. Some have never allowed themselves to experience it, and there are even some who become empty from the lack of it and no longer feel the need to continue. There are many facets to this complex ideal. But never is one correct in labeling another naive for believing in it. Never is one correct in pre-judging its value. And never is one correct in underestimating its power.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAzBxFaio1I&feature=related
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Bush administration has launched a "significant escalation" of covert operations in Iran, sending U.S. commandos to spy on the country's nuclear facilities and undermine the Islamic republic's government, journalist Seymour Hersh said Sunday.
An Iranian flag flies outside the building containing the reactor of Bushehr nuclear power plant, south of Tehran.
White House, CIA and State Department officials declined comment on Hersh's report, which appears in this week's issue of The New Yorker.
Hersh told CNN's "Late Edition with Wolf Blitzer" that Congress has authorized up to $400 million to fund the secret campaign, which involves U.S. special operations troops and Iranian dissidents.
President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney have rejected findings from U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran has halted a clandestine effort to build a nuclear bomb and "do not want to leave Iran in place with a nuclear program," Hersh said.
"They believe that their mission is to make sure that before they get out of office next year, either Iran is attacked or it stops its weapons program," Hersh said.
The new article, "Preparing the Battlefield," is the latest in a series of articles accusing the Bush administration of preparing for war with Iran.
He based the report on accounts from current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. Watch Hersh discuss what he says are the administration's plans for Iran »
"As usual with his quarterly pieces, we'll decline to comment," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe told CNN.
"The CIA, as a rule, does not comment on allegations regarding covert operations," CIA spokesman Paul Gimigliano said.
Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, denied U.S. raids were being launched from Iraq, where American commanders believe Iran is stoking sectarian warfare and fomenting attacks on U.S. troops.
"I can tell you flatly that U.S. forces are not operating across the Iraqi border into Iran, in the south or anywhere else," Crocker said.
Hersh said U.S. efforts were staged from Afghanistan, which also shares a border with Iran.
He said the program resulted in "a dramatic increase in kinetic events and chaos" inside Iran, including attacks by Kurdish separatists in the country's north and a May attack on a mosque in Shiraz that killed 13 people.
The United States has said it is trying to isolate Iran diplomatically in order to get it to come clean about its nuclear ambitions. But Bush has said "all options" are open in dealing with the issue.
Iran insists its nuclear program is aimed at providing civilian electric power, and refuses to comply with U.N. Security Council demands that it halt uranium enrichment work.
U.N. nuclear inspectors say Tehran held back critical information that could determine whether it is trying to make nuclear weapons.
Israel, which is believed to have its own nuclear arsenal, conducted a military exercise in the eastern Mediterranean in early June involving dozens of warplanes and aerial tankers.
The distance involved in the exercise was roughly the same as would be involved in a possible strike on the Iranian nuclear fuel plant at Natanz, Iran, a U.S. military official said.
In 1981, Israeli warplanes destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor.
Iran's parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, warned other countries against moves that would "cost them heavily." In comments that appeared in the semi-official Mehr news agency Sunday, an Iranian general said his troops were digging more than 320,000 graves to bury troops from any invading force with "the respect they deserve."
"Under the law of war and armed conflict, necessary preparations must be made for the burial of soldiers of aggressor nations," said Maj. Gen. Mirfaisal Baqerzadeh, an Iranian officer in charge of identifying soldiers
I think we should try to organize Get out the Vote campaign here in Hot Springs.
I am going to contact the county clerk tomorrow, and have tried to get in contact with the Obama campaign and the DNC to see what else I need to do. I will be happy to go door to door, or set up registration booths myself, but would be more efficient with your help. Are there any interested bodies?
:) Pretty please :)
Marizza
I don't know who will read this, which is why I am so hesitant to write, but I guess the idea is to organize my thoughts.
Tuesday was one of the happiest days of my life. I made all of my daughters watch so that they could say they remember the day an african-american was nominated for the highest position in the country, the day we changed the world, the day we took our moment. They seemed to understand.
Now, after reading the many blog posts on HillaryClinton.com, after hearing the opinions of an educationally, ethically, and philsophically diverse group (I went to a wedding), I can see that our next battle will be difficult. We need to stop celebrating, and start organizing. I am currently in Magnolia, Arkansas. I small college town with a large african-american population and blatant remnants of segregation, ie., all "black" high school, "black" neighborhoods, "white" neighborhoods, and "mixed" neighborhoods ( I gaped when I heard that word), and even a "selective" club which does not allow non-whites. Needless to say, the african-americans are weary of those who are "white". My husband and I are going to register as many voters here in Magnolia. I am then going to Hot Springs, where I work, and will spend as many evenings registering people to vote. The problem, I don't know how to do it. I guess I have to call the county clerk? I should call nearby churches to see if I could stand outside after church and register people that way. Does anyone out there have any advice? I am horrible at calling, so I plan to write post cards. I feel bad that I haven't been very useful during the primaries, but I'll step it up for the general. Maybe I'll get over my fear of talking to strangers and call some people. Good luck to all of you,
Happy Mother's Day to all mothers out there.
I have changed my fundraiser to Mama's for Obama in honor of this day.
I think it makes more sense, since intelligent mothers who realize that change is what we need to make this a better world in which our children can live.
Please donate $5 in honor of mothers day!
Go Obama! 155 to go.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/brokeforobama
Did I just hear correctly.
George McGovern just switched to Obama and told Clinton she should get out.
Woohoo. This really is going to happen!
I talked to my mother, and I convinced her to vote for Barack.
This may not seem like a big accomplishment, but she is scary and is the matriarch of a large family. She may convince many others in the family who are currently decided. Yay!
Here is something cooler. I am a math instructor at the Arkansas School of Mathematics and Sciences, and I heard all of my math colleagues saying how it is obvious that Barack is the best candidate. What is so cool about this, is two of them used to be Bush supporters. He has inspired so many people to believe in him, it's amazing. Woohoo Obama!
