On March 28, over at Chris Weigant's blog, Chris asked his readers to place their bets (in quatloos) when Clinton would drop out of the Presidential race. Well, I've done pretty well so far. I predicted that Obama would surpass Clinton in Superdelegates before the West Virginia primary (got it right) and several of my delegate totals from the primaries were darn close (I didn't do so well on my original delegate estimate for Indiana). Also, I was only 1 day off for the John Edwards endorsement of Obama. My final prediction is Clinton drops out on June 16, just 31 days from now.
27. This is the magic number.
The blog editor won't allow tables ... so the rest of the post is over at The Dead Guy
(cross posted on The Dead Guy)
This is not a new concept. FDR and The New Deal. The late Senator Paul Simon's 1987 book by the same title as this post (Which I have a signed copy of - I had Senator Simon autograph it for me when he was in Iowa campaigning for the 1988 Democratic Presidential Nomination).
With a country that has resources and infrastructure in dire need of help, we need to put America back to work fixing these problems. Where could we start? Well, there are 10 pieces of U.S. infrastructure we must fix now!
(cross-posted on The Dead Guy)
Main Entry: chi•me•ri•cal Pronunciation: k?-?mer-i-k?l, k?-, -?mir- Variant(s): also chi•me•ric -ik Function: adjective Etymology: chimera Date: 1638 1 : existing only as the product of unchecked imagination : fantastically visionary or improbable 2 : given to fantastic schemes
Thanks to a friend, I was able to attend tonight's musical at the Des Moines Civic Center - "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" (Spelling Bee). It was a fun night, but as I drove home, a bell went off in my head (and no, Spellers, it wasn't Vice-Principal Panch), I recognized that Senator Clinton and her campaign for the Democratic Presidential Nomination can be encapsulated using many of the lyrics from the musical.
So once again, lifelong politicians have taken words out of context and wielded them as weapons back at the person who spoke those words.
Senator Obama was 100% correct when he said after all the promises we have been given about improving the economic conditions, not just in Pennsylvania - but across America, and yet nothing has truly changed, that we are bitter and many of us blame that which we are told to blame: immigrants, people wanting to restrict the 2nd Amendment, the government supposedly trampling our religious rights, and so forth.
That's what Obama was saying. And if you hear the whole conversation in context - you know that is what he said. The American people have been given scape - goats to blame by the people that are really to blame - the politicians that won't do a damn thing to bring about the change needed to restore jobs and better conditions for our country.
But let me tell you something - I'm not bitter - I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it anymore!
THE BRAND CALLED OBAMA
As of today, Real Clear Politics (RCP) is reporting the popular vote estimates in the four caucus states that have not released the actual voter breakdowns from the original caucuses.
Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine release total voter counts for their caucuses (or close estimates), but do not release what each candidate receives, just percentages of delegates chosen and/or hard caucus delegate counts.
I've been in email contact for about 1 week with the folks at RCP about trying to show a more accurate computation of the popular votes for Obama and Clinton (since Clinton is thinking about using an argument for Popular Vote to sway Super Delegates if she can get a win in PA and if she would win in a revote in Michigan and Florida primaries).
And now, today, RCP has published on their site their estimates!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Including these estimates - it now givs Obama an 813,747 lead over Clinton in the popular vote.
YES WE CAN!
AP states that it's 23 Obama, 14 Clinton and 7 Edwards with 1 to be decided. THEY ARE WRONG!
I've taken the IDP totals from each County and applied them to their Congressional Districts and the math shows that it should be:
25 Obama
14 Clinton
6 Edwards ....
From the transcript of Friday's Situation Room on CNN(http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0803/14/sitroom.01.html):BLITZER: They got 40 percent. I think she got about 60 percent. She and Dennis Kucinich were the only names on the ballot, though, in Michigan. So, it wasn't exactly fair, by all accounts.If Florida and Michigan, by the way, do get to redo, and they can be full participants at the convention in Denver, the magic number to win the Democratic nomination goes from 2,025 without those two states the 2,208 with those two states. We will see if Florida and Michigan can get their act together.(CROSSTALK)GALEN: I think you guys have done a great job so far. Just keep it up.(LAUGHTER)BRAZILE: And I think, at this rate, we will have a Democratic nominee before June. And, hopefully, the party will come together before August.GALEN: So, you think the whole June 3 thing is just going to be a waste of that private money?BRAZILE: Well, I'm hoping that, in the next few weeks, the Democrats will ultimately make a decision and we will have -- start having some peace within the family.
******
Hopefully Donna Brazile has an inside track on this and we can start on the General Election!
(The last question of this poll most resembles Obama's Health Care Plan. The first question looks to find out how the person views the Health Care situation in America as it stands. Questions 2 and 3 are the same plan (mostly resembles Clinton's). Notice that no matter which way the Clinton's plan is presented - Obama's is favored by more Americans.)
Health Care Delivery
NPR/Kaiser Family Foundation/Harvard School of Public Health survey. Feb. 14-24, 2008. N=1,704 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all adults). Fieldwork by ICR.
"An issue that has received attention in the news lately is the number of Americans who do not have health insurance. How serious do you think this problem is? Very serious, somewhat serious, not too serious or not at all serious?".
79% Very Serious 19% Somewhat Serious 4% Not Too Serious 2% Not at All Serious 1% Unsure
"Next, I'm going to read you a description of a plan to make sure everyone has health insurance, and then I'm going to ask you if you support or oppose this plan. This proposal would require all Americans to have insurance. Most people would still get insurance through their work. People who don't get insurance from work would have to buy it themselves, or pay a fine if they don't. People with lower incomes would get help from the government paying the cost of health insurance. Would you support or oppose this kind of plan?" N=853 (Form A)
47% Support 44% Oppose 8% Unsure
"Next, I'm going to read you a description of a plan to make sure everyone has health insurance, and then I'm going to ask you if you support or oppose this plan. This proposal would place requirements on individuals, employers, the government, and insurance companies so that everyone shares in the responsibility. Individuals who don't already have insurance would be required to buy it or pay a fine, with financial help from the government for people with lower incomes. Employers would be required to cover their workers, or pay money into a pool that helps people buy insurance. Government health insurance programs would be expanded. Insurance plans would be required to take anyone who applies, even if they have a prior illness. Would you support or oppose this kind of plan?" N=851 (Form B)
59% Support 33% Oppose 8% Unsure
"A different proposal for increasing the number of people covered by health insurance would NOT require all adults to have insurance, but would require that parents get insurance for their children. Most children would still be covered by plans through their parents' employers. Parents who aren't covered through work would have to buy insurance for their children, or pay a fine if they don't. Parents with lower incomes would get help from the government paying the cost of health insurance or their children would be enrolled in public programs. Would you support or oppose this kind of plan?"
65% Support 31% Oppose 4% Unsure
Now on YouTube - new will.i.am video "We are the ones" - I am proud to have been the 219th person to see the new video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghSJsEVf0pUcheck it out and share it with everyone!
In response to the question about Putin and Medvedev on MSNBC's debate tonight, Senator Hillary Clinton pretty much denounces (but doesn't reject) her own run for President:
""I can tell you that he's a hand-picked successor, that he is someone who is obviously being installed by Putin, who Putin can control, who has very little independence," she said. "This is a clever but transparent way for Putin to hold on to power, and it raises serious issues about how we're going to deal with Russia going forward."" 1) Hand-picked successor 2) Being installed by an outgoing leader (or former leader) 3) Transparent way to hold on to power 4) Raises serious issues about how to deal with as we go forward Hmmmm does this sound familiar?
It would have been great for either Tim Russell or Brian Williams to have gone a little deeper on this with a follow-up - "So is this what you are saying: you are against a political system that appears dynastic in its operation?"
Here is one of the best moments from last night's debate - a moment that crystallizes why Barack Obama is the best person to be the next President of the United States.
On Monday evening, at the CNN/YouTube Democratic debate, a question was asked about whether the candidates would continue the Bush/Cheney strategy or would they be willing to reengage the world and offer a new world view.
Only one candidate on the stage said he would offer a true break from Bush/Cheney: Barack Obama.
On that debate stage, Senator Obama articulated a fundamental change in U.S. foreign policy from the Bush/Cheney approach.
Under a President Obama, the United States will be engaged with the world. We will reach out to our enemies because refusing to talk to them doesn’t punish them. We will engage our enemies as President Kennedy and President Reagan did – eventually bringing the Soviet Union to its knees. We will have a foreign policy that exhausts all the tools of diplomacy, as Air Force General Scott Gration laid out last week, before resorting to the military hammer.
On January 21, 2009, if a President Obama has taken the oath of office, it will send a clear signal to the world that America is turning the page. We will be able to stand before the world and say, “The United States is back. We are here and we are ready to lead again.”
Today, the Quad-City Times ran an editorial laying out the clear change that Senator Obama articulated on Monday evening. The editorial also points out that other candidates favor an approach more closely aligned with the Bush/Cheney way of doing things. Here’s an excerpt:
In Monday’s Democrat presidential debate, Obama seemed clear. He favors reaching out to all nations, even those recklessly dubbed “axis of evil,” by President Bush. Obama neither said nor implied he would blindly accede to these nations or even negotiate with them. He simply suggested he would be open to new, constructive relationships, even with nations run by dictators who say nasty things about the United States. Clinton had seemed to support such diplomatic openness, but now clarifies it by suggesting these nations would have to meet certain conditions before she would permit U.S. overtures toward them.
Clinton had seemed to support such diplomatic openness, but now clarifies it by suggesting these nations would have to meet certain conditions before she would permit U.S. overtures toward them.
You can check out the whole editorial here: http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2007/07/26/opinion/opinion/doc46a7eec4cf681864772104.txt.
Today in New Hampshire, Barack proposed the most sweeping ethics reform package in history – and he’ll enact it on his first day in office. Barack said he'll make it absolutely clear that "working in an Obama Administration is not about serving your former employer, your future employer, or your bank account – it’s about serving your country, and that’s what comes first."
His ethics-reform package has several planks:
Barack met with the Des Moines Register editorial board on Monday. Here are a few excerpts from the editorial that came out of the meeting. You can read the whole thing here.
Thoughtful Obama says he's ready to lead At 45, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the youngest major-party candidate running for president. But his decade of elective service and the broad experiences he's gained living and working outside Washington and even outside the country have prepared him well for the job, he said. "I don't think the measure of leadership right now in the eyes of the American public is how long you've been in Washington," he said Monday in a meeting with the Register's editorial board.... National polls show Obama close on the heels of Hillary Clinton for front-runner status among Democrats. His rallying call to change the pettiness of politics and change America, his charismatic speaking style and his boyish good looks have filled venues around the country. Yet in his meeting with the Register, he displayed no celebrity-candidate swagger. He shook the hand of every person in the room, before and after the meeting, and made a point to introduce himself (as if he needed to do so) and shake the hands of other staffers in the hallway. ... And when he settled in to talk about issues, he shunned rhetorical firepower for thoughtful responses, often pausing to choose his words carefully. He appeared absorbed in the give and take, leaning back in his chair or resting his chin on his hand. ... By "growing up in different places with people who had differing ideas," as his campaign bio puts it, he gained a different outlook toward people and issues. A prominent example: his opposition to the Iraq war, dating to before the invasion. "A lot of it has to do with the fact that I lived overseas for a number of years... I was never persuaded that we could create a Jeffersonian democracy in Iraq. That was based on specific experiences of living in Indonesia or knowing my family in Kenya, and understanding how powerful tribal and ethnic sentiments are when it comes to many of these countries." Experiences abroad also inform his views on immigration. He's troubled about setting up a guest-worker system with no avenue toward citizenship, after seeing instances in the Middle East where guest workers outnumber citizens and are "terribly abused."... When deciding to run, "I wasn't simply a young man in a hurry," he emphasized. "I think there's this particular window right now where the country is hungry for change, and is also hungry to be brought together, as opposed to being driven apart. And I thought that the particular skills that I have, of bringing people from diverse backgrounds across lines of race or party or region or faith to focus on solving problems, was a particularly useful and needed skill right now."
At 45, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the youngest major-party candidate running for president. But his decade of elective service and the broad experiences he's gained living and working outside Washington and even outside the country have prepared him well for the job, he said.
"I don't think the measure of leadership right now in the eyes of the American public is how long you've been in Washington," he said Monday in a meeting with the Register's editorial board.
...
National polls show Obama close on the heels of Hillary Clinton for front-runner status among Democrats. His rallying call to change the pettiness of politics and change America, his charismatic speaking style and his boyish good looks have filled venues around the country.
Yet in his meeting with the Register, he displayed no celebrity-candidate swagger. He shook the hand of every person in the room, before and after the meeting, and made a point to introduce himself (as if he needed to do so) and shake the hands of other staffers in the hallway.
And when he settled in to talk about issues, he shunned rhetorical firepower for thoughtful responses, often pausing to choose his words carefully. He appeared absorbed in the give and take, leaning back in his chair or resting his chin on his hand.
By "growing up in different places with people who had differing ideas," as his campaign bio puts it, he gained a different outlook toward people and issues.
A prominent example: his opposition to the Iraq war, dating to before the invasion. "A lot of it has to do with the fact that I lived overseas for a number of years... I was never persuaded that we could create a Jeffersonian democracy in Iraq. That was based on specific experiences of living in Indonesia or knowing my family in Kenya, and understanding how powerful tribal and ethnic sentiments are when it comes to many of these countries."
Experiences abroad also inform his views on immigration. He's troubled about setting up a guest-worker system with no avenue toward citizenship, after seeing instances in the Middle East where guest workers outnumber citizens and are "terribly abused."
When deciding to run, "I wasn't simply a young man in a hurry," he emphasized.
"I think there's this particular window right now where the country is hungry for change, and is also hungry to be brought together, as opposed to being driven apart. And I thought that the particular skills that I have, of bringing people from diverse backgrounds across lines of race or party or region or faith to focus on solving problems, was a particularly useful and needed skill right now."
Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there! As you celebrate this day with your families, check out Barack's touching Father's Day podcast below.
.
