News week, Aug 3,2009 (newweek.com) asserts the recession is over.
we think not, here aqt Democratic Financial World. One must keep in mind History:during the Great Depression of the 1930's there were five stock market rallies, and none of them lasted. In fact in James Livingstone argeas in "the true Causes of the Great Depression" Challenge (www.challenge.com) in the May-June issue- the tue cause was falling wages and Failing banks--the exact same course we are on now.
Livingstone argues t6he underlying cause "was a fundametal shift away from wages and consuption to corporate profits of a tidal wave of surplus captial that could not be profitably invested in goods production, aand in fact was not invested in goods peroduction.
"In classical,neo classical aamd supp-ly side theory this shift should have prouced more jobs and invewstemt vbut did not.
Livingston cites key trends:
--in 1929 90% of tax payers had less disposable income in 1929,than in 1922;
--meanwhile corporate profits rose 62%, and dividends doulble
--the top 1% of taxpayewrs increased their disposalble income by 63% between 1922 and 1929
In a word the very mirror image of the end of the Bush years. but Livingston goes on to say that by "1999 income shares from wages shifted awway from wages toward profits, resutled in new securies
One of the more flatoutious ideas has been that the Organization of American States to admit Cuba to membership provided that Cuba adhere to the priciples of human rights. Cuba, after consulting Castro,declined the offer.
Why is this fatuitous? Recall the "dirty war" in Mexico where thousands of leftists disappeared. Recall the missing in Argentina...
Recall Chile iand the assination of Salvador Allende and the end to legally elected democratic government. Recall the invasions of Grendada and elsewhere..
Recall the Patriot Act of the USA that allows "terrists" to to held indefinitely without trial, without right of appeal and unable to confront witnesses becuse they are "secret". The US Congress has not reformed or done away with this--only the Supreme Court has Acted.
This is a Goverment that has no problem indicting Eliot Spritzer or Rod Blagadoch, but wimpes out at prosecuting waterbordists on the grounds that "we want to put the past behind us". Surely that meens one standard for Democrats, and another for Republicans. And this is a goverment who at the end of World War 2 executed people for waterboarding as a war crime.
For more see "Flickering Lights" London Ecomonist June 6,2009. Economist.com
Kofi ana once defined "terrorism" as "being aything that move goverments or non govermental units towards a goal by violent Means". And the Arab world declined to endose this view for solidarity reasons with Palestinians, and that it would prevent wars of liberation.
Iran adopted this refusal. So now it is ironic that Iran is now calling protesters terrorists because they want to have an honest count at least it the recent elections.
Obama has refused to be drwn in to this . And it is unlikely that talks will proceed any time soon on weaponization issues, which is just as well beause Netaqnyahu has embarked on a "linkage" beteeen progress in Iran and the West Bank settlements.
But this linkage can turn out badly for Isreal if the Iranians choose to play the card right back. Why,they can ask, should Isreal have nuclear weapons but not Iran? If the oblject is a nuclear free Middle East is a goal, why not make Isreal declare and then give up is nuclear weapons?
This is not the debate Obama wants to have. More over as the recent article on "avoiding a Nuclear Crowd" in Policy Review (no 155 June-july 2009) Henry Sokoliki raises the issue of the Fissille material Cutoff Treaty, which would ban fissile materials that could be made into weapons raises the definite ojection that "Obvisly Eypt, Pakistan and others will be loathto give up their rights until Isreal gives up its nuclear weapons and India no longer poses a significant nuclear threat"
And what further complicates things is the US India treaty which gives India the right to weaponize matrial from eith nuclear power plants. According to testimony before the House Committee on Internation Relations bucommittee on Terrorism and Non Prolieration, India already has enough fissile material to make over 2,000 crude weapons. It will be hard to argue that the US should be obeyed in face of this, since India has previously threated Pakistan with nuclear weapons where Iran has not-at least at this point.
Now there are some critics who arue that APresident Ahmajiden threaten Isreal. But, read the speech itself. Now where was Isreal mentioned. The closest statement was "the regeme that controls Jerulsam". It was the Iraian Press office statement that actually mentioned Isreal.
Obama faces an even tougher task now in proposing a new round of sactions because the very people the sanctions will hurt will be the emerging middle class who voted for more open ss and freedom. By provoking an artifial recession, hard won middle class gains will be lost, and hardliners will further be in control.
Is Obama up to the task? He has only a few days left to decide. Two months of delay will be too late, and only allow more reprecessing with wout consquences. Time is running out and Isreal will not wait.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/36107220@N04/sets/72157620651404422/
We here at Democratic Financial World have never believed Obama's Change You Can Believe in slogan, though we believe in the man. Obama has thrived with ciourage and grace confronting challenges that would disinhearten lesser folk.
But his slogan is simply too much...
Now that both Chysler and Eneral Motors are in bankrucy we can say niether has learned any lessons, judging from impatial newsmedia sources. Consider the Business Week June 8 2009 report that Cadillac and Chevorelt will get $1.3 billion in marketing money"Double the existing budget and pretty close to what Toyota spends on Lexus"....
Where we ask is the cash for hybrid vehicles? Where is the stepped up paced for the electric cars? Where are the new fuel effecient vhehicles?
Chevy and Cadillac don't have either. But let's move on with Biz Week's breathless report:"With lower costs GM will have more money to spend on Buick and GMC which were long starved of new vehicles",writes Biz Week. Yet almost every analist has pointed out GM needs fewer, not more car brands.. GM's new production boss Tom G Stephens doesn't get it.
We can read between the lines: government funding for proven patterns of failure. This is change we can't believe in.
We have said before the Deocratic party should not run ib on the "We Saved Cadillc" platform. That belongs to the other party-the party of gas guzzles.
While Chrysler offers hope of small cars from Fiat as a part of it's alliance, we can not be confident of a turnaround. European management --Volkswagon,Dailer and others ran Chryster into the ground where it is today. American were never impressed with German engineering, and Fiat offers more of the same.
Fiat is sports cars in the puclic mind in the US, but the biggest and richest market is family vehicles--which is why SUV's are still popular- but tarnished because of low gas milage.
If fact,if it were not for fuel economy they would still be wildly popular.
Detroit's problem is not design; it is efficiency.It makes too many cars with little regard to markets. We recall when Auto Nation did a computer analysis of what sold three years ago-including every bell and whislte-and noted Detroit lacked specific detail of exactly who their customer was..
How could Gm and Chrystler have so many outlets between them and not have such basic data? One cannot imagine Proctor and Gamble , Hp or Dell not knowing who their costomers were.
We wonder too about the post bailout debt load forcast by Business Week. Chrysler's barely moves from $22.7 Billion to 21 billion. Yet, Gm's moves from $69 Billion to 10-20 billion. The pupose of bankrutcy is to erase debt, and re-emerege- yet, Chysler's barely changes.
So we have to ask what kind of deal did the Obama Administration cut with Chrylser to allow a bare nick?
We also note the German governments money for GM Europe-specfifically for Opel. Yet this stuff isn't even included in the GM plan. Will GM-europe profits be bought back to GM-assuming there are profits.
We're sorry, but this is not change we can believe in--
--it makes no new efforts toward fuel effecient cars, or even makes them a priority..
--it still favors gas guzzelers over electric or hybrid vehicles, and lays out no roadmap for change...
-- it makes no claim of technological advancement No joint planning for electic waystation of reueling and no integration with highway planning or electrical grid restructiong for smoothing the change over.
The Democratic Party shioulod not mortgage it's futuree to a post brankrucy rescue operation unless there is a clear road map for change in the car industry from its addiction to oil.
Here are some of the things we will be discussing at the Health Care Forum on May 12th. I hope you can make it!
Did you know:
Consider the following facts:
· 50 million people are uninsured and many more are underinsured;
· 37% of Americans report rationing care due to a lack of healthcare coverage;
· The uninsured are more likely to go to the emergency room for care and 20% more likely to be admitted to intensive care;
· 20% more likely to die when receiving intensive care within Intensive Care Units (ICU);
· Many of us go without psychiatric care;
· 18,000 people die each year because of a lack of medical insurance;
· Health care costs are rising at two times the rate of inflation (a major contributor to foreclosures)
· Administrative costs account for 31% of healthcare expenditures (by comparison, that is double the proportion in Canada).
SOURCE: Did You Know, MN Universal Health Care Coalition
We're going to be discussing the Minnesota Universal Health Care Initiative at this meeting. Then we're going to talk about ways to support it or alternatives. All are welcome.
Well President Obama latet move to fire GM's Rick Wagner is certainly taking charge. We would have to reach all the way back to Teddy Roosevet's battle with Standard Oil for a paralell of poulism.
But hole the cheers please. Both GM's and Chrsler's electric vehices and Hybrids are nowehere near production and won't be before 2011 at the latest. They are starved for cash flow because of competeing priorities, and essentially the same goverment the brougfht you Katrinia is still in charge, and that is because you can't turn things around overnight no matter how hard one tries.
Moreover, the electric grid isn't anywhere near buildt yet. So where will they be plugged in?
Assume Bankrucy occurs, there is no guartee all the money will not be squandered on paying lawyers exbortant fee.s. Welfare for the lawyers we say And what happens as these cars fall further behind on the production schedule. At the most what bankrupcy does in pay off investors who ok'd the Jurassic Park evironment--in other words, rewarding dinasourbrains.
President Obama need to set a road map. And like it or not, there is no better place to start than Geoge Bush's "addiction to Oil" speech.. Obama should say President Bush got something right-even though he did not do much else. At least he identified the problem in a very public way.
This would provide the bipartasianship for whatr is really needed-a Manahttan Project to delelop electric and hybrid vehicleon a fast track basis.
Current thinking-keep the best sellers-junk the rest is clearly not the wave of the future.
Do you think Barak Obama can run on a platform of "We saved Caddlice and Chevey?" One would be laughed out of the Democratic party. No-and this is important, not just sybolically either. The Republicans can have a fied day with "turing you back on the common man" by saving Caddy.
This strategy needs to ehance the future in making autos. If all we are doing is enabling people to reach small destinations one person to a car we are wasting stratic resouces.
We already hace hybrid buses. And if we can do hybrid busses cars should not be hard technically-especially SUV, which are best sellers anyway. Moreover, wouldn't it be easier to lift the 70,000 vehicle limit on hybrid vehicles imposed i previous tax bill , which only served to limit forien makes who sold thier 70000 quota in two moths when domestic makers have yet to produce one.
A real strategy would focus on what is produced that drives down gas prices, not who produces the car. The idea is to reauce the addiction, not provide jobs to compainies that can't race fopr the dollars..
Time will tell wether Obama will drw a line in the sand and focus on cars of the future, or put the Democats on the road to "Well we saved Caddilace."
1 in 6 Americans are uninsured and millions more are under-insured, yet lobbyists try to convince Congress and the media that health insurance companies are the best way to provide affordable health care to America. If the President's plan is changed to exclude an option similar to Medicare, health care in this country remains mired in the hands of insurance profiteers.
A public, single-payer option is the way to guarantee health care for all Americans. Insurance companies are in it for profit - that's what business does. Our big mistake thus far has been expecting them to behave altruistically. Where is their motive? It's on the bottom line.
New legislation without a new option is no longer a viable choice. Let people keep the for-profit coverage if they already have it, but a public health care option is overdue. Of course, competition should force private industry to provide better service at lower costs, but it still doesn't force them to help the uninsured.
"In 2009, Congress must take up and act on meaningful health reform legislation that achieves coverage for every American while also addressing the underlying problems in our health system. The urgency of this task has become undeniable."~Senator Max Baucus, (D-MT)Chairman, Senate Finance Committee12 November 2008
"In 2009, Congress must take up and act on meaningful health reform legislation that achieves coverage for every American while also addressing the underlying problems in our health system. The urgency of this task has become undeniable."
To date, the private, for-profit payment systems have enriched a few large corporations while leaving millions of average Americans one illness or injury away from medical bankruptcy. The system is broken; it's a mass of red-tape, with medical decisions in the hands of bureaucrats instead of doctors. We spend more per capita on health care than any other nation, but our results leave a lot to be desired.
“The reason we spend more and get less than the rest of the world is because we have a patchwork system of for-profit payers. Private insurers necessarily waste health dollars on things that have nothing to do with care: overhead, underwriting, billing, sales and marketing departments as well as huge profits and exorbitant executive pay. Doctors and hospitals must maintain costly administrative staffs to deal with the bureaucracy. Combined, this needless administration consumes one-third (31 percent) of Americans’ health dollars.“
We need to re-define success. Big business is ignoring the problem, looking instead to their separate bottom lines, while non-profit organizations are bringing real innovation and proactive thinking to bear. We need insurance profiteers out of the health care industry - now. They drive costs up, because they're middle-men making a profit. What's right for their business is wrong for providing cost-effective health care to Americans. Let's pass the President's plan and move on to tackle the other thorny issues of our time: education and the economy.
The DJIA crept above 8000, there were slight up-ticks in consumer spending and housing sales reported, and suddenly we're supposed to believe the economy has bottomed out? The people I talk to are still feeling mighty insecure about their jobs, because losing your job threatens your health care and your retirement savings at a time when we know the job market is still very, very tight.
While the President is right to focus on the engines that create jobs in the U.S., such as small businesses and the schools that prepare us for those jobs, IBM has recently announced layoffs in the U.S. as they continue moving even more jobs out of the country. At IBM, business success is all about their bottom line - they're moving jobs to countries where workers earn less and have fewer benefits. Not quite what the President is working for, and certainly not what the U.S. workforce deserves.
Ms. Dawn Teo has written an OpEd at Huffington Post, "New Economic Reports Suggest Middle Class May Have To Wait For Economic Recovery" loaded with facts and figures, and I respect Dawn for her tenacious research. It's a dose of cold reality amid the sudden clamor of voices saying confidently, "it's getting better!" Did they see those unemployment numbers? Did they forget already that productivity declined in the non-farm business and manufacturing sectors in fourth-quarter 2008?
The impact of the financial deregulation orgy is not behind us yet. So trying to goad us into optimism based on a few isolated numbers, cherry-picked for their "improvement," isn't a story I'm ready to buy just yet. Not while mega corporations like IBM can still scoff and do layoffs with impunity.
Despite the setback at the end of 2008, productivity has roughly doubled in the U.S. in the last several decades, yet the benefits have flowed to the super rich, while their companies and strategies and "financial products" have abused those of us who dared to believe in terms like "privatized retirement accounts." Returning to preeminence in manufacturing and agriculture isn't simply about recapturing the American Dream, it's essential to our economy and security. The big business leaders that have touted the virtues of capitalism during those decades will be proven wrong if they fail to recognize that their profit - their success - is a direct result of the creativity and productive labor of the middle class.
When IBM can be as proud of how they treat their workers every day as General Motors was during its glory years,when I see people going back to work at jobs with good salaries and benefits, then I'll be ready to believe the U.S. economy is back on its feet. We've got a lot of work to do.
