When Early Voting began, answering the question of "Where are the Democratic voters in North Carolina?" was easy: in the counties with the highest Democratic registration. But now that Early Voting is over, answering that question is a little trickier, b/c it depends on who has already voted. Luckily the NC Board of Elections makes that data available to us.
Below is a table where I attempt to answer this question. For purposes of clarity, I've taken out the obvious examples of the top 3 counties in population--Mecklenburg, Wake, and Guilford. In the first column below, the % is that county's Democratic turnout by the end of Early voting. In the 2nd column, counties are ranked in descending order by their Democratic Registration.
But the 3rd and 4th columns are the important ones. Column 3 is where the counties rank after Early Voting by their numbers of Democrats who've not yet voted. Notice the counties in bold that are moving up the list from Column 2. Finally, Column 4 is a bit of guess work: based on Early Voting, how will these counties rank, after Tuesday, in terms of Democrats who did not vote at all? To arrive at this total I did a rough, across the board estimate: I multiplied the county's early vote turnout % by 150% (FYI, doing this across the state would give Democratic turnout of 80%--optimistic, but very possible). Again, note how the counties in bold continue moving up the list, if things go on as they have so far.
Is this alarming? Yes it is. The reason is that whereas in the 2nd column, registration, the counties in bold account for only 21.3% of Democratic registration (again, not counting Mecklenburg, Guilford, & Wake), in Column 3 they have increased to 24.3% of Democrats who've not yet voted. Not bad, one might say, but it gets worse. If those same turnout trends are extended through Tuesday, those counties in bold (column 4) will then account for (outside of the Big Three), 43.2% of all registered Democrats left at home. I.e., not Durham County, not Orange, or Buncombe, which look set to get their turnout, but these smaller, more rural counties, which probably have fewer volunteers and less GOTV organization. These counties look likely to leave voters at home (just as many of them did in 2004, especially Robeson, which has historically low turnout).
Can this pattern by changed in the next 54 hours???
Early turnout Rank, Dem. Rank, Dems Est.final rank,
registration not yet voted Dems. who stayed home
57% DURHAM CUMBERLAND ROBESON
46% CUMBERLAND FORSYTH CUMBERLAND
47% FORSYTH DURHAM FORSYTH
56% BUNCOMBE ROBESON CABARRUS
51% PITT BUNCOMBE NEW HANOVER
46% NEW HANOVER NEW HANOVER GASTON
58% ORANGE PITT DAVIDSON
23% ROBESON GASTON JOHNSTON
44% GASTON CABARRUS HARNETT
46% ALAMANCE JOHNSTON ALAMANCE
42% JOHNSTON ORANGE ROWAN
37% CABARRUS ALAMANCE COLUMBUS
52% UNION DAVIDSON PITT
52% NASH ROWAN DURHAM
56% WAYNE IREDELL ONSLOW
46% IREDELL UNION HALIFAX
37% DAVIDSON ONSLOW RANDOLPH
42% ROWAN HARNETT CLEVELAND
48% CATAWBA CLEVELAND IREDELL
43% ONSLOW CATAWBA CRAVEN
52% WILSON NASH ROCKINGHAM
44% CLEVELAND COLUMBUS BUNCOMBE
51% EDGECOMBE HALIFAX CATAWBA
51% BRUNSWICK ROCKINGHAM HAYWOOD
45% ROCKINGHAM CRAVEN UNION
38% HARNETT WAYNE SURRY
44% CRAVEN WILSON DUPLIN
41% HALIFAX BRUNSWICK BEAUFORT
37% COLUMBUS RANDOLPH LINCOLN
Here's the release that went out today about the national rally. There are now 19 sites around the country for this event. And we've got 389 registrants in Chapel Hill! Haven't signed up yet? Visit http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gshbsd to do so and to get the latest details. If you ARE a mama, if you HAVE a mama, if you KNOW a mama, please turn out Nov. 1 (3-5 p.m., Southern Vilage Green)!
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE OCTOBER 20, 2008momsforobama@sbcglobal.net
MOMS FOR OBAMA/BIDEN TO HOLD NATIONAL RALLY DAY--Hundreds of Mothers, Husbands, and Children Expected at Rallies to be held across America on November 1 at 12:00 pm PST (3:00 pm EST)
Chicago, IL – Mothers and families are signing up by the hundreds to plan and participate in a rally being organized as a show of support for Barack Obama’s candidacy just days before Election Day. Moms for Obama, a national grassroots organization, are coordinating the event, billed as “National Rally Day” by its organizers.
On November 1 at 12:00 pm PST, mothers and their children will participate in marches and rallies across the country. The event is designed to allow mothers to make their voices heard in their own community rather than traveling to a single rally location. Moms for Obama believes that as supporters join hands and hearts for America’s children in small towns and big cities across the United States, our voices will echo from sea to shining sea.
“This time, this moment, our future is worth fighting for Barack Obama's message of hope, action, and change offers a vision and promise America can believe in.” shared Moms for Obama Administrator, Tamara Burrell. “Under his leadership we will see a conclusion in Iraq, healthcare resolution for all, and economic solutions that will benefit our families.” “Join Moms across America on November 1 in standing up for change.”
The list keeps growing of cities in which mothers are coordinating rallies and marches to show their support for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. Currently, more than 17 cities across America are participating. The group expects to have nationwide participation with multiple rally locations in each state.
Moms for Obama formed in February 2007 as a core group of mothers determined to make a difference in the 2008 election through grassroots organizing. Members felt the need to take action and get involved in the political process in order to make their voices heard after watching the Bush policies of the last few years that have abandoned America’s children in favor of special interests. There are more than 100 million mothers in the United States and the demographic is one that is respected and valued by candidates based on mothers’ consistent turnout on Election Day and their commitment to the issues that affect our children and country.
Interested parties are encouraged to visit the website at www.obama-mamas.com or http://my.barackobama.com/page/group/MomsforObama to find out more.
WHAT: MOMS for OBAMA NATIONAL RALLY DAY
WHERE: Across America – See list http://www.obama-mamas.com/rally.html
WHEN: Saturday November 1, 2008 at 12:00 pm PST
MEDIA: Open Event. Please contact with specific requests.
Dear Senators Obama and Biden,
I voted for you today. I just wanted to let you know.
-JoshDurham, NC
McCain can not just correct a few people in his rally and think the fires of division will burn out. He must change the culture of his campaign against the gasoline spills of falsehoods and smears that are igniting negative emotional rage and spreading like fire on dry wood and grass. These fires are bearing fruits of increasing division, discord and confusion while productive political discourse loses oxygen in foundation of his campaign. McCain needs to pour the water of love on his campaign. This will make these fires transform or run for cover. For the light shines truth on division, discord and confusion like a scalpel; ready to do great things on the souls of those who are willing to embrace the sword of truth. The scalpel of truth will renew the soul so that one can see things as God see them; in terms of the heart or soul and not on the outward appearance of fading human shells and temporal things.
Be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind through the author of change. Erase the old thinking patterns of the past; injecting in those old tapes the Word of God. (Romans 12:2)
Hello Fellow Volunteers,
As a Change Crew Chief working in North Durham area since August, I have met many volunteers that wanted to locate Obama/Biden Yard Signs. I ordered a number which have arrived and are now available for purchase.
Please come out to one of our canvass events this weekend and purchase yard signs while they last.
Price $8.00 each
We look forward to seeing you come to canvass and purchase your yard sign this weekend.
Yes We Can! Yes We Will!
What: North Durham Canvass / Yard Sign Sale
Where: Meet at the Starbucks Guess Rd / Horton Rd
When: Saturday, October 11th , Start times 10am, 12noon, and 2pm
When: Sunday, October 12th , Start times 1pm and 3pm
Obama Campaign Knocked On Over 100,000 Doors This Weekend In North Carolina
Thousands of Volunteers Accomplished Unprecedented Two-day Canvass
RALEIGH – The Obama campaign in North Carolina set a goal of knocking on 100,000 doors throughout the state over the past weekend. With the help of over 3,000 volunteers, they not only met that goal, they surpassed it by nearly 8,000 homes!This is an unprecedented effort to persuade Tar Heel voters over a single weekend. Campaign volunteers met at 460 canvassing locations across the state to knock on a total of 107,703 doors.
“This is a record achievement in North Carolina, and we are proud of the hard work of all of our volunteers and supporters,” said Marc Farinella, North Carolina State Director for the Obama campaign. “North Carolinians know that we need change, and increasingly they recognize that Barack Obama and Joe Biden will provide the kind of change we need. With 36 days until Election Day, our grassroots supporters will continue to talk to undecided voters in their neighborhoods and help deliver North Carolina’s fifteen electoral to Barack Obama in November.”“The outcome of the campaign in North Carolina will be determined by friends talking to friends and neighbors talking to neighbors. Our campaign is built upon that kind of contact,” Farinella added.###
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 29, 2008
Yet another point to show how McCain is out of touch all those employed with Ole Miss, the, city, the state and countless others spending funds to have a last minute delay, just show how ineffective, out of touch and wasteful a McCain's Reentrancy would be. Flip Flopping it's stable, it's Obama's fault, but now it's so unstable we must postpone the debate and spend more money and hurt the Main St economy for Wall St.
We must come to a decision and the decision should be to vote the bailout down. If McCain can not make it. Maybe Palin can fill in as confident as McCain is in her she should be able to handle it & show how qualified and ready she is.
Eva / North Durham Volunteer
Come out to the Starbucks located at Guess Road & Horton Road for an all day voter Registration Drive.
When: 3 Shifts: 10am, 12noon, 2pm
What: We will be registering people vote in two ways. 1. Clipboarding: going to high traffic areas in the community and registering people to vote. 2. Voter Registration Cavassing: We take who is registered in a neighborhood, remove those names, and knock on all of the other doors on a block. This means we can hopefully knock on doors of unregistered voters and get them registered. If you have never done any of this before that is fine. We will have a training at the beginning of every shift to get everyone ready to go.
It should be a lot of fun, we look forward to seeing you there!
Directions: From I-85 South to exit#145 Guess Road. Turn Right onto Guess Road and proceed North to 3rd stop light - Horton Road. Turn Left at intersection to Starbucks From I-85 North to exit#145 Guess Road. Turn Left onto Guess Road and proceed North to 3rd stop light - Horton Road. Turn Left at intersection to Starbucks You can view this event at any time by going to: http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gpgpsm
North Carolina are we FIRED UP AND READY TO GO!!!!!!!!!
I was watching one of my favorite movies this morning (John Q.) and I was just thinking, "how do people make it"? I mean, seriously, this family had two incomes and people were telling them they should be on welfare. Thats not right. The health care is so expensive and once you finally need it you're not coverd for that or you have to have had it for six months fotr it to take into effect.
John McCain has horrible plans for health care and insurence. He wants to lower costs. Now that sounds fine but recent studies show that if he reduces it to an extreme it still will be to much for a fourth of americans in poverty. So that will still be tens of millions of americans without health insurence. Hey Genius, if health insurence goes to low, the prices will skyrocket much higher than ever before.
Obamas plan is much more efficient though because he proposes that we create the Nationwide Health Insurence Exchange which has insurence companies sell private health plans and the government will regulate prices so they stay fair. And also public coverage would be adminsterd throgh the exchange as well.
Fellow wilmingtonians, we need to campaign for Obama quickly. Wilmington is growing and growing by the day and we need to make sure that this is an Obama city. North Carolina is going to be big this year and we need to win it and win the election!
When my mother and my uncles grew up in Mississippi they had the world of possibilities. They knew people who were going to college and were dirt poor but were smart and wanted to learn, same as Obama because he's my mothers age. The schools were'nt so corrupt.
But now look at what it takes to get into a decent school, $25,000 and recommendations from people on a poster in your room. I mean is if youre not in a country club family then youre not going to get into a good college. So unless you're a genius or rich, it's community college time for you. So that means you have moneymaking idiot Bush going to yale but a poor pre nobel winner going to Miami!
Now as I wrote in my last blog about educaion this is what I mean. The US went down the tubes because colleges got pricier and pricier and smart young students who couldent afford college were left in the dust. Obama though wants to get rural and urban students a chance to make it. Like so, get them in learning centers so that they can acquire a will to learn and he wants to make colleges more affrodable. This will definently give america more respect because education is the most imoportant aspect in a countries development, and I know were not in a devloping nation but if you've looked at the stock market latley, you'ed think so.
Dear Senator Obama,
Thank you for responding to those of us that are voicing dissent over your position on the FISA Amendments Act (FISAAA) of 2008, H. R. 6304, that is now before the Senate. Thank you for your post, “My Position on FISA”, of July 3, 2008, and for making advisors available to discuss these issues on your Obama for America community blog.
You wrote in your statement "The ability to monitor and track individuals who want to attack the United States is a vital counter-terrorism tool, and I'm persuaded that it is necessary to keep the American people safe -- particularly since certain electronic surveillance orders will begin to expire later this summer. Given the choice between voting for an improved yet imperfect bill, and losing important surveillance tools, I've chosen to support the current compromise.”
Celebration day!!
Yes finally after all these months Obama has clinched the nomination, setting one of the most important icons in the history of our country.
I feel enormously proud today of the outcome of these primaries, where finally we can see that there are indeed strong signs of change in our culture, we are evolving for the better.
Let’s take this day to celebrate and breathe the fresh air of positive change, let’s take a little break before starting for the second part of this epic journey.
Now the real campaign starts, it won’t be easy but we have proven that TOGETHER WE CAN ACCOMPLISH ANYTHING WE WANT.
Recharge your batteries, be alert and ready, it is for real now; we need to start working twice hard, we need to stand behind our hopes and our believes, today more than ever before.
Our personal future and the future of America are in our hands.
