This week I mailed my absentee ballot in to the County Clerks office in Bowling Green. That is one vote in Kentucky for CHANGE and for HOPE, and for the belief that no one can take my hope away and that we always have the right to change things if we see the need to do so.
A little revolution is good every once in a while and I believe now that the financial crisis has sort of cooled off everybody's thirst for greed a bit we have an opportunity to build a new future based on the real values that make our country great.
Go Bama, O-bama!
1%, or 1 vote out of 100There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different. More than half were decided by less than a 2% margin.
In 2004, 57,787 votes would have given us President Kerry.In 2000, 269 votes would have given us President GoreIn 1996, 575,515 votes would have given us President Dole.
From ABC News:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2008/09/squeakers.html
=========="Squeakers"Ned PotterABC NewsSeptember 29, 2008How close have Presidential elections been? Closer, perhaps, than we ever guessed. Mike Sheppard, a grad student in statistics at Michigan State, has done a mathematical exercise that shows it.He ran a computer program to answer this question: "What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?"The answer: in some years, very, very few. Take a look at his analysis HERE. It shows the powerful interaction between the popular vote and the electoral college.[...]==========
Full article here:http://blogs.abcnews.com/scienceandsociety/2008/09/squeakers.html
Detailed analysis here, including colored maps:https://www.msu.edu/~sheppa28/elections.html-Mike Sheppard
by Ron McBride, 2 July 2008 It seems everyday, I have received emails from not only conservatives but self proclaimed liberals and progressives that continue to perpetuate slander about Barack Obama.
I don't know about the rest of the Clinton supporters but WE Obama Supporters can see LIGHT at the end of this tunnel.
I'm An Obama Girl
and Darn Proud Of It!!!!
LYNNE
I am beyond upset with yesterday's election. Do you people realize that we are now OFFICIALLY the laughing stock of the country. We are the butt of all racist remarks across this land and it makes me sick. I have never in my life been more ashamed of my state than I am right now. All across CNN and other news channels, they're telling the world that Kentucky is not an affluent society nor are we educated. And the sad thing is, they are ABSOLUTELY right. Kentucky wants to party like it's 1899, so you know what? GO FOR IT. Knock yourself out and have a great time. Let's continue to let the world think that we are a bunch of inbred, rednecks, not wearing shoes and sleeping with our cousins... that's a great image to have. Let's let the world know that we can't think for ourselves, that we rely on the way things have been taught for so long and that part of these "learned behaviors" even come from our churches. Let's let the world know how STUPID we are!!! I am fed up with this mentality, I am fed up with Southern thinking, I am fed up with REDNECKS and I am FED UP WITH THIS "GREAT" STATE. To hell with it all!!!
Thank God for Oregon!!!!
Ted
Muhlenberg for Obama
I went to see Barack at his Louisville rally. It was amazing. It was inspiring. Did I mention it was amazing and inspiring? For those of you not familiar with downtown Louisville, I will attempt to paint a picture for you. The convention center probably takes up a good two city blocks. I tried to park at the Hyatt but the lot was full so I made my way to the Marriott and parked there.
The doors were not supposed to open until 5:00 PM. Senator Obama was scheduled to speak at 7:00 PM. I was there at 4:00 PM and the line already stretched from the entrance to the convention center, around the corner, around the convention center, past the Marriott, past the Hyatt, past the convention center itself. It was amazing. The weather was perfect, the crowd was energetic and everything was well organzized. I was as excited as a kid at Christmas.
Once inside, I signed in and we made our way up the escalator to a packed foyer where there was yet another line. This was the security checkpoint. The only problem here was once we were at the top and safely off the escalator, the volunteer staff had not been monitoring closely enough the number of people going up. No one could move and people were still on the escalator trying to get off. People were literally balancing themselves on the rails on either side. It could have been disastrous. Finally, they shut them down and the crowd was able to move about safely.
Inside the exhibit hall where Barack was going to be speaking the crowd was energetic and ready for something amazing. By my estimate (though this is only an estimate) I would say they had between 10 and 12,000 people in a standing room only atmosphere. The fire marshal actually turned away roughly 2,000 people still waiting to get inside.
Kentucky congressman, Ben Chandler spoke and then an employee from the Ford Motor Plant spoke. He announced that he would soon be laid off as well as thousands of other local workers for Ford. Then, he introduced Barack. It took about three minutes or so from the time of his introduction to the time that Barack actually made it to the podium. It was electric. He was gracious, warm and excited. He spoke approximately 41 minutes on topics ranging from healthcare to economic reform, to fuel costs. He covered everything. He even made a joke about being Dick Cheney's cousin.
It was an amazing evening. Once we made it back to our car and got out of the parking garage and onto the street, the police blocked the road. I thought they were going to let other traffic through but no one was coming. It was then that a parade of cars, police cars, secret service came whizzing by. Instantly, everone began honking, waving, looking out their windows and sun roofs. His motorcade went right by us. He too was smiling and waving. If someone had been there and not known that Senator Obama had just spoke, they would have thought that everyone had either lost thier minds or that this was this rudest place in America to drive because you couldn't hear ANYTHING but horns, horns and more horns!!!
Here's a link to the video of the event:
http://www.wave3.com/global/video/popup/pop_playerLaunch.asp?vt1=v&clipFormat=flv&clipId1=2479561&at1=News&h1=RAW:
Enjoy,
Ted Tucker
With the incredible night we had in North Carolina and Indiana, many people are saying Hillary is over, finished, done, outta here... blah blah blah. I think she is too but let's not let up. We need to keep fighting like we have all along. Our friends in West Virginia will vote Tuesday, then next Tuesday it's up to us here in Kentucky and our friends in Oregon. Most people agree that we CANNOT win West Vriginia and Kentucky... they are Clinton strongholds. YES WE CAN!!! We need your help though. Volunteer in your area. Make phone calls, go door to door, tell your friends, tell your neighbors, tell your church groups, hand out fliers... whatever it takes. Let's just make this happen. Here's a thought to the fact that we can't win West Virginia and Kentucky... Maybe just maybe, the fact that the media, political figures, advisors, bloggers, the Pope, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny etc are telling her it's time to call it quits--that can actually help us. People will not want to vote for a "loser" Likewise, Hillary supporters may think "what's the use of voting" and not show up. Republicans CANNOT vote in this (Kentucky's) primary so they CANNOT vote for Hillary in the Limbaugh Effect.
So come on people, let's show em that Kentucky chooses HOPE!!!
As I write this, tomorrow's primaries have yet to happen. Right now, tomorrow is full of hope.... full of promise and full of potential. Tomorrow can be the day that we finally put the Wright controversy to rest. Tomorrow can be the day that we essentially wrap this up. Tomorrow CAN BE that day because tomorrow hasn't happened yet but let me tell you about today.
Today was like most days. I went to work and went about my life as usual. Nothing exciting, just the same ole same ole. After work, I was on my way to run errands, workout and see some friends. Along the way I decided to stop by the Owensboro Obama Headquarters and introduce myself. I was out of town when they opened and today was the first chance I had. Like most local HQ's, this one was nothing grand... an empty storefront that had obviously seen better days. There were a few tables, a few chairs, a couple of computers, some signs on the windows and walls and the distinct smell of an old building that feels neglected. I walked in and there were four people there beside myself. Three volunteers and an older man that appeared to just be passing time. One of the volunteers was on the phone sitting in the floor, one was on the computer and the other was a make-shift desk by the door talking to the elderly gentleman. I made small talk with the girl after she got off the phone. "How are things going?" "What do you think about tomorrow?" That sort of thing. Then I talked to the (I am assuming) head of the Owensboro office. He was really nice and had even read a few of the blogs I have posted. I introduced myself, he introduced himself and I offered to help out in any way they needed and I left. That's it. Done. Over. Nothing earth shattering happened, there was no parade... no hoop-la... nothing. But I left there with a smile on my face because I was HOME. It's people like me... people like you... people like the 3 volunteers in the office and people like the elderly gentleman sitting in the chair that are going to make this possible. It's people like all of us that are tired of the way things have done and it's people like us that demand change and will not settle for anything less.
So what about tomorrow (or today as most of you will be reading this)? Who knows? I know we can do this and I know we will do this. Will we wrap it up with Indiana and North Carolina? I hope so. I think so but as I said at the beginning... tomorrow hasn't happened yet. Regardless of the outcome, this is our time and this is our country and Barack Obama is our next President. Let me encourage each of you to do all you can to help our country and to help our candidate. We are a strong people when we want to be.
Yes we can, Yes we will and Yes we are!!!
Regards,
THOUGHT YOU ALL SHOULD READ THIS...
THANKS,
~TED~
Kentucky SD Attacked for Supporting Obamaby SaintCogWed Apr 30, 2008 at 08:09:59 AM PDTUPDATE: Within 30 minutes of this Diary hitting Kos, we raised over $2,500.00 for Congressman Chandler for supporting Barack Obama. As of 11:15 PDT, we are over $4,000.00. Think we can hit 5K? Yes We Can!! And Yes We Did. You can view the running tally here. It cannot be stressed enough how important it is to show Super Delegates this kind of support, especially when they come under fire. Other Super Delegates take notice.OK, here's the deal. As long as this diary is on the rec list, the fundraising goal for Congressman Chandler goes up in $1,000 incremenets. Let's show these Super Delegates what happens when they support Obama, even when it's not politically expedient for them. Let's hit $6,000! Keep it going!!SaintCog's diary :: ::Yesterday Kentucky Congressman Ben Chandler had the courage to come out in support of Barack Obama, despite the long odds against him winning the state's primary. This was an embarrassment to the Hillary campaign that an elected SD would put the reputation with his own constituents at stake to support the candidate he believed would make the better candidate, president or both.Today Representative Chandler is feeling the heat for this endorsement. According to Poltico Chandler's phone has been ringing off the hook since yesterday receiving numeros vitriolic complaints, many with offensive racial slurs, about his endorsement of Senator Obama. As of 2:30 PM yesterday, he had received 300 phone calls opposing his decision and only 5 calls in support.We need to take action on this. Call Representative Chandler's office (especially if you are a Kentucky resident) and let him know that you support his decision to endorse the next President of the United States, Barack Obama!D.C. Office for federal legislation issues or Washington, D.C.
1504 Longworth HOB Washington, D.C. 20515 Phone: (202)-225-4706 Fax: (202)-225-2122Press Contact: Stephanie Pepper Phone: (202)-225-4706 Fax: (202)-225-2122DONATE TO BEN CHANDLER'S CAMPAIGN TO SHOW SUPPORT TO ALL OBAMA SUPERDELEGATESI just spoke with the campaign manager for Congressman Chandler. She said that their website will be up and running within the weeK, and there will be a link for donations.In the meantime, we can donate to him via his ActBlue page or by mailing him physical donation checks to the following address:Chandler for Congress PO Box 12678 Lexington, KY 40583We need to show all superdelegates that Supporting Barack Obama for President not only poses no risk to them, but will ultimately benefit them in real terms. We can only do this through our donation efforts.[Update x2] Wow, the rec list. I am always so happy to see how we at Kos respond immediately and decisively - it's reflective of the candidate we support. I would like to use this rec'd diary to drop an early plug for a voter registration website that I and a group of us across the country are starting - VoteZip. org. It's not ready to be launched officially yet, but I thought I'd give everyone on Kos a heads up. Please check it out and tell us what you think.
There will be a group of us going to Henderson this Saturday to do some canvassing. If you want to join us and get a little experience under your belt, you are more than welcome!!!
Meet at the parking lot behind the County Courthouse (faces N. Elm & 1stSt):County Courthouse20 North Main StreetHenderson, KY 42420-3120Google Map:http://maps.google.com/maps?client=safari&rls=en-us&q=20%20North%20Main%20Street%20Henderson%2C%20KY%2042420-3120&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&um=1&sa=N&tab=wlWe will have canvassing groups leaving at 10am and 2pm, and a PrecinctLeader Training session at 1pm. For the groups that leave for the 10amcanvass, they will need to be back in the parking lot by 1pm for thetraining.
Though, I'm sure no malice was intended, in a campaign that has turned into so much about words... his should have been chosen more carefully. Read and see what you think. At the bottom, I have included links to Senator Mitch McConnell who was there. He should have denounced Davis' remarks. Let him know you agree. Send an email to Davis as well demanding he personally apologize and I've also included a link to Governor Beshear (a democrat). Ask him to denounce those remarks and urge him to endorse Senator Obama.Thanks,Ted (Kentucky)
PS Join our group, Muhlenberg for Obama"That Boy's Finger Does Not Need to Be on the Button"While the putatively "liberal" media hyperventilate about a few words Barack Obama uttered in San Francisco last Sunday, lost in the din were the remarks at a fundraising dinner for Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and his compatriot Representative Geoff Davis who represents the good people of Northern Kentucky. Senator McConnell called Obama "incredibly naive" and Representative Davis called him a "snake oil salesman." But the truly offensive and, yes, "elitist," statement came from Davis when he said: "I'm going to tell you something. That boy's finger does not need to be on the button.The good news is that Davis's campaign manager, immediately recognizingthe racist nature of his boss's words, delivered an unambiguous apology to Obama's Senate office. The bad news is that the reconstituted Solid South under one-party Republican rule has not shaken its old Jim Crow roots.READ THE REST HEREhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-a-palermo/that-boys-finger-does-not_b_96865.htmlhttp://geoffdavis. house. gov/Contact. aspxhttp://mcconnell. senate. gov/contact. cfmhttp://www. governor. ky. gov/contact. html
Tuesday's speech was magnificent! The best part was being spoken to as though I was capable of understanding an argument, not simply a sound bite. One need not be President to lead, as Americans since the time of Benjamin Franklin & Alexander Hamilton have illustrated. Regardless of the outcome of this year's race, Senator Obama has established himself as one of the great leaders in the history of the American people. I certainly intend to work to see him elected, and I expect that to occur, but losing an election would not change the fact that many, like me, will view him as their leader regardless of his political title.
The Clinton campaign claims that since it won the "big states", it makes her a more effective general election candidate. Let's take a look at that logic.
The 10 biggest states by population. I've added numbers form SUSA's 50-state poll matching up Obama and Clinton to McCain.
1.) California: O +9, C +10 2.) Texas: O -1, O -7 3.) New York: O +14, C +18 4.) Florida: O -2, C +9 5.) Illinois: O +29, C +11 6.) Pennsylvania: O -5, C +1 7.) Ohio: O +10, C +10 8.) Michigan: O +1, C-even 9.) Georgia: O -13, C -21 10.) North Carolina: O -2, C -8
Of those, California, New York, and Ohio (all of which Clinton won) are solidly Democratic. California and New York will certainly stay (D) in November. Illinois, which Obama won, is solidly (D) no matter who the nominee is. The two are essentially even in Michigan, while neither is currently competitive in Georgia.
Of the states that will be competitive, Obama has clear advantages in Texas and North Carolina, while Clinton has clear advantages in Pennsylvania and Florida. In the electoral math, that is 49 EVs for Obama, 48 for Clinton.
Yup, Obama has a one electoral vote advantage from the top 10 "big states" that Clinton can't stop yammering about.
But more important than the biggest states should be the closest states in 2004. I've coded states that Obama won this primary season in Blue, Clinton in Red. Those still pending in black:
New Mexico: -1 Iowa: -1 New Hampshire: +1 Wisconsin: +1 Ohio: -2 Pennsylvania: +2 Michigan: +3 Minnesota: +3 Nevada: -3 Oregon: +4 [update: changed to "pending" from Blue] Colorado: -5 Florida: -5 Delaware: +7 Washington: +7 Missouri: -7 New Jersey: +7 Virginia: -8
If you were to make the moronic assumption that only the winner of the primary could win those states, that would add up to 81 74 electoral votes for Obama, 49 for Clinton. But better yet, let's look at SUSA's 50 state poll and see how the candidates fared in these states against McCain. I've color coded them Blue for states that Obama does better in, and Red for those Clinton does better:
New Mexico: O +7, C-even Iowa: O +9, C -5 New Hampshire: O +2, C -8 Wisconsin: O +11, C +4 Ohio: O +10, C +10 Pennsylvania: O -5, C +1 Michigan: O +1, C-even Minnesota: O +7, C +4 Nevada: O +5, C -8 Oregon: O +8, C -5 Colorado: O +9, C -6 Florida: O -2, C +9 Delaware: O +9, C +5 Washington: O +14, C -2 Missouri: O -6, C -4 New Jersey: O-even, C +5 Virginia: O-even, C -10
Pretty stark, huh? In terms of electoral votes, that's an advantage of 101 for Obama, 74 for Clinton.
No matter how you parse it, the data is clear that Obama is the more competitive November candidate for the Democratic Party.
Let's count the ways that Obama is winning:
1.) Pledged Delegates: (Using AP's numbers, with Obama's count in parenthesis)
Obama: 1,390 (1,411) Clinton: 1,248 (1,250)
2.) Popular vote: I updated this post with results from Mississippi. I took out the Texas caucuses just to give this the best pro-Clinton spin possible, though I still think the caucuses are a separate contest and need to be accounted for. (Obama ended up winning Mississippi by over 100,000 votes.)
Obama: 13,614,204 Clinton: 12,801,153
3.) Primaries Won: There are 37 total primary contests. All Obama has to do is win three more and he notches the lead in these contests. He can do that easily with just three out of Montana, South Dakota, Oregon, Indiana, and North Carolina.
Obama: 16 Clinton: 12
4.) Caucuses Won
Obama: 14 Clinton: 3
5.) Overall contests Won: It's a 2-1 Obama advantage (includes territories and Democrats Abroad).
Obama: 30 Clinton: 15
6.) Red and Blue States Won (including DC, not including territories or Democrats Abroad):
Obama: 16 Red, 11 Blue Clinton: 8 Red, 6 Blue
8.) Money Raised (through February)
Obama: $168 million Clinton: $140 million
So that leaves the Clinton campaign with what, exactly? Big states! Big states! Big states! I addressed that one yesterday.
Team Clinton has nothing except schemes of coup by super delegate, which they apparently think they can do by insulting entire Democratic constituencies and most of our nation's states.
But really, what else do they have? Their campaign is losing by every metric possible.
