Stephen C. Rose Obama Diary

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 09:52:35 EDT

State Department Violation of Obama: FOX and CNN Drop The Ball About | Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls | GameFOX and CNN are not treating the State Department's breach of Obama's passport file as urgent news. MSNBC is.I guess we really do not have main stream media, sort of a crap shoot. Amazing. I will amsnd this as the story breaks.BREAKING NEWS
NBC News

updated 12 minutes ago

Two contract employees of the State Department were fired and a third person was disciplined for accessing passport records of Sen. Barack Obama "without a need to do so," State Department officials confirmed to NBC News.

The three people who had access to Obama's passport records were contract employees of the department's Bureau of Consular Affairs, NBC News has learned. The unauthorized activity concerning Obama's passport information occurred in January.

"A monitoring system was tripped when an employee accessed the records of a high-profile individual,” a department official told NBC News. "When the monitoring system is tripped, we immediately seek an explanation for the records access. If the explanation is not satisfactory, the supervisor is notified."
Jan 9, Feb 21 and March 14. The earlier two breach persons were fired, last Friday's breacher was reprimanded.

Thanks to Keith Olbermann for breaking this.

Now Barack is appearing on Larry King.He is BEST when he stops generalizing and gets to facts of the matter -- specifics of what the economy is doing, statements about drug prices and medicare. He needs to get to these specific statements.

Nothing so far on the State Department invasion of the Barack Obama file.

MSNBC still on the case. People knew about the breaches but it may not have made its way up the chain of command. The speculation is that there was an effort to suppress the information at a lower level. A failure of management, to put it mildly.

At 9:31 Eastern FOX has noted the story. I think King on CNN was taped earlier which explains the lack of questions. The ticker notes it.

At 9:48 Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC indicates that things are not adding up. If there is no major motive like opposition research, there is most certainly gross incompetence.

Eric Holder: This needs to be looked at. Is there a cover up? Was it just an "innocent" thing?

Clearly an investigation is called for and will most likely ensue.

I am shutting down now. But I cannot resist noting that at 10:11 on CNN Anderson Cooper leveled a cheap shot at MSNBC calling its extended coverage breathless. Technically CNN dropped the ball. The least he could have done is credit MSNBC with providing the only coverage for several hours while CNN and FOX slept.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008 Penn Dreams

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 09:48:57 EDT

The Shift to Hillary is Mark Penn's Pipe Dream

Parsing Mark Penn's Polling Memo and addressing Hillary Clinton's has-been campaign. Mark, you have tried as hard as you could. I can't believe how you continue to do it. If you want some reasons to escape, consider the following responses to your recent wishful thinking.This post consists of the Penn Memo blockquoted with observations interspersed.

To: Interested Parties
From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist
Date: Thursday, March 20, 2008
Re: Polling Memo - The Shift to Hillary

There are some pretty big changes happening out there with the voters. Barack Obama recently declared himself the frontrunner in the race, although there are 10 contests remaining and MI and FL have not yet been decided.
Seems to me that things have gone my way on this. I have never been for a re-vote. I have been for a negotiated settlement that fairly decides the disposition of these imperfect primaries. My guess is that delegates will be seated and denied a first ballot vote as a penalty and then freed to vote as they wish. The decision will be made prior to the Convention so the point will be moot.

But a look at the polls shows that Sen. Obama’s lead nationally with Democrats has been evaporating. The Gallup daily tracking poll shows Hillary leading Sen. Obama among Democrats by 7 points, and the latest Zogby/Reuters poll has Sen. Obama’s lead down from 14 points last month to just 3 points now. This suggests a strong swing in momentum in the race to Hillary since the Texas and Ohio primaries earlier this month.

No question that recent events threw Barack for a loop. With the aid of FOX wall to wall vitriol and spins from you guys supported by the MSM, the polls have wavered. Evaporation would be the case if Barack were going to, er, evaporate. In your dreams Mark. Obama is going with the substance of this blog. Read this blog Mark and give me a bit of credit for being right.

The more that the voters learn about Barack Obama, the more his ability to beat John McCain is declining compared to Hillary. For a long time we have explained that poll numbers for a candidate who has not yet been vetted or tested are not firm numbers, and we are beginning to see that clearly. Just a month ago, the Obama campaign claimed that the polls showed Barack Obama doing better than Hillary against Sen. McCain. Now such numbers are a lot harder to find.

You are ignoring the basic reality Mark. If there were no Barack, you might have a point. But Barack is getting rave reviews for his Tuesday speech and plaudits for his two succeeding speeches and if he does not win the nomination there will be hell to pay and you guys will be sitting in the villain's chair. So much for a Hillary victory. The only thing you can do now is try to spoil Barack. I think the electorate and the superdelegates know how to read the leaves. We have learned a great deal about Barack. We have learned more than we need to about Hillary. Sadly, under your tutelage, she has deteriorated without the aid of having HER religious affiliations exposed. It isn't worth it. Don't worry.

In the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, Hillary leads John McCain by 5 points (Hillary 51 / McCain 46) while Sen. Obama is only 2 points ahead of Sen. McCain (Obama 49 / McCain 47). This is a reversal from February, when Sen. McCain led Hillary by 4 points. The latest CNN poll also shows that Hillary leads Sen. McCain by a bigger margin than Barack Obama.

These reversals are nothing Mark. You are a pollster and you know better. Barack could start out, as our nominee, 40 points below McCain and still win in November. I think the reality we are dealing with is that either Barack or Hillary can beat McCain, which just makes defeat more bitter. If you really believe Barack is self-destructing, quit and wait four years.

In several key states, Hillary is a stronger general election candidate than Barack Obama against John McCain. For example, the latest Survey USA poll has Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 6 points in Ohio while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 7 points. In Kentucky, Hillary’s margin against Sen. McCain is 26 points better than Barack Obama’s. In Missouri, Sen. Obama lags John McCain by 14 points while Hillary comes within 2 points of Sen. McCain. In Florida, the latest PPP poll shows Barack Obama losing to John McCain by 11 points while Hillary comes within 4 points of Sen. McCain. Last week's University of Central Arkansas poll showed Hillary leading Sen. Sen. McCain by 15 points in that state while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 16 points. And the latest Rasmussen poll showed Hillary leading Sen. McCain by 11 points in New Jersey while Sen. Obama trails Sen. McCain by 2 points.

See the comments above.

Moreover, 24 percent of Florida Democrats say that if Florida's delegates are not counted at the Democratic convention in August, they are less likely to vote for a Democrat in November, according to the latest St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll. Since Florida is the single largest and most important swing state in the country and nearly 1.8 million Florida Democrats voted in the January primary, Democrats must find a solution to allow Florida's delegates to count if we are to have any hope of winning in November.

Mark, take a look at my Electoral College game. I have already given Florida to the Republicans. Obama wins without it. This is as speculative as my game is. I just think I have it more right than you do. The Florida solution will seat the delegation with a little tilt toward HC and no vote the first ballot.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008 FAUX FOX

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 09:43:29 EDT

Foxes Deserve Better -- Save for FOX (Faux) "News" About | Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls | GameFoxes -- like all animals -- deserve a break, but one FOX -- FOX News -- deserves the contemporary equivalent of the stocks -- a public and somewhat humiliating display of a miscreant. The specific sin of FOX is its unfair, uninterrupted and impunity-laden assault on the character and person of one Barack Obama and of his pastor, one Jeremiah Wright.Joseph McCarthy could have wished nothing better than the banquet of bile fashioned by FOX.

It is therefore one purpose of this blog to publicly skewer and help bring down this mighty engine of the Murdoch Empire. By approaching FOX frontally we help to establish that their attack is unfair in the extreme. We do not buckle to it. We challenge it. And we use our power to fight its power.

Fortunately there is a site called Skin The Fox and I have taken the liberty of providing you with relevant information from its BOYCOTT page.

Yes, we will start by simply refusing to patronize the people who pay Sean Hannity's salary. If Bill O'Reilly was able to pay in the millions to settle whatever problem he had in the harassment department, we must assume that advertising revenue has been quite generous. We aim to nip it some.

Here are FOX Sponsors you may wish to contact with the intelligence that you will not support them as long as they support FOX.

And if anyone from FOX comes here and wishes to skewer me, skewer away. I have made a practice of hiding nothing and will gladly confess to a multiplicity of sins. When I was an infant I had meals with rich liberals and known radicals.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008 Nomination Path

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 09:41:14 EDT

Obama's Path To The Nomination Despite the narrowing of Hillary Clinton's hopes to gain the Democratic Presidential nomination, the widening of Barack Obama's hopes depend on precise and necessary steps that are outlined here, taking as my text the New York Times article by Adam Nagourney Clinton Facing Narrower Path to Nomination The most pervasive and potentially damning challenge facing Barack Obama is the Reverend Wright case, which Clinton forces deem to be a likely dooming of Barack Obama's chances to win a national election. In essence the Clinton campaign is presenting superdelegates with the prospect of damaged goods and the necessity of rejecting the democratically chosen nominee for a tried and tested nominee in the form of Hillary Clinton. Or as Nagourney puts it:
Mrs. Clinton’s advisers said they had spent recent days making the case to wavering superdelegates that Mr. Obama’s association with Mr. Wright would doom their party in the general election.The fact that the most recent days have shown no movement on either side in the superdelegate count suggests that this effort has not exactly taken off.

I continue to think that the best weapon against the Wright-Dukakisizing scenario is a frontal attack on FOX news combined with a continued reiteration of Barack Obama's seminal speech of Tuesday. With the following addendum. Convey that we are a spectrum from ridiculous and primal to sublime and heavenly. That lives are likewise a progression in which we all go through things we would hide if we could and all strive for stories of our lives that we can live with and approve.

Barack will need to keep reiterating. That is all there is to it. This election is a contest between notions of human nature and notions of what it is to be an American.

Nagourney says that Clinton's other challenges are to defeat Obama "soundly" in Pennsylvania and lead in the total popular vote after the June primaries.

Failing these three things, and failing any further difficulties on Obama's path, Clinton is finished.

It stands to reason then that Barack Obama must turn Wright to his advantage, win or come in very close in Pennsylvania and win the popular vote at the end of the primary season.

We could argue that at some point Hillary Clinton's campaign would collapse or that enough superdelegates would gravitate to Barack Obama that the outcome would be clearly in his favor.

But I don't think we want to hang our campaign on a hope. It needs to be built on a rock. With three legs.

1. The Reiteration. The seminal Tuesday race speech needs to be brought front and center into the stump speech. Here are some salient quotations that are part of the reiteration:

This was one of the tasks we set forth at the beginning of this campaign – to continue the long march of those who came before us, a march for a more just, more equal, more free, more caring and more prosperous America. I chose to run for the presidency at this moment in history because I believe deeply that we cannot solve the challenges of our time unless we solve them together – unless we perfect our union by understanding that we may have different stories, but we hold common hopes; that we may not look the same and we may not have come from the same place, but we all want to move in the same direction – towards a better future for of children and our grandchildren.+I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.+Reverend Wright’s comments were not only wrong but divisive, divisive at a time when we need unity; racially charged at a time when we need to come together to solve a set of monumental problems – two wars, a terrorist threat, a falling economy, a chronic health care crisis and potentially devastating climate change; problems that are neither black or white or Latino or Asian, but rather problems that confront us all. ... if all that I knew of Reverend Wright were the snippets of those sermons that have run in an endless loop on the television and You Tube, or if Trinity United Church of Christ conformed to the caricatures being peddled by some commentators, there is no doubt that I would react in much the same way.+Segregated schools were, and are, inferior schools; we still haven’t fixed them, fifty years after Brown v. Board of Education, and the inferior education they provided, then and now, helps explain the pervasive achievement gap between today’s black and white students.

Legalized discrimination - where blacks were prevented, often through violence, from owning property, or loans were not granted to African-American business owners, or black homeowners could not access FHA mortgages, or blacks were excluded from unions, or the police force, or fire departments – meant that black families could not amass any meaningful wealth to bequeath to future generations. That history helps explain the wealth and income gap between black and white, and the concentrated pockets of poverty that persists in so many of today’s urban and rural communities.

A lack of economic opportunity among black men, and the shame and frustration that came from not being able to provide for one’s family, contributed to the erosion of black families – a problem that welfare policies for many years may have worsened. And the lack of basic services in so many urban black neighborhoods – parks for kids to play in, police walking the beat, regular garbage pick-up and building code enforcement – all helped create a cycle of violence, blight and neglect that continue to haunt us.

Take A Break -- We'll Make it (Man of Constant Sorrows)

This is the reality in which Reverend Wright and other African-Americans of his generation grew up. They came of age in the late fifties and early sixties, a time when segregation was still the law of the land and opportunity was systematically constricted. What’s remarkable is not how many failed in the face of discrimination, but rather how many men and women overcame the odds; how many were able to make a way out of no way for those like me who would come after them.

But for all those who scratched and clawed their way to get a piece of the American Dream, there were many who didn’t make it – those who were ultimately defeated, in one way or another, by discrimination. That legacy of defeat was passed on to future generations – those young men and increasingly young women who we see standing on street corners or languishing in our prisons, without hope or prospects for the future. Even for those blacks who did make it, questions of race, and racism, continue to define their worldview in fundamental ways. For the men and women of Reverend Wright’s generation, the memories of humiliation and doubt and fear have not gone away; nor has the anger and the bitterness of those years. That anger may not get expressed in public, in front of white co-workers or white friends. But it does find voice in the barbershop or around the kitchen table. At times, that anger is exploited by politicia ns, to gin up votes along racial lines, or to make up for a politician’s own failings.

And occasionally it finds voice in the church on Sunday morning, in the pulpit and in the pews. The fact that so many people are surprised to hear that anger in some of Reverend Wright’s sermons simply reminds us of the old truism that the most segregated hour in American life occurs on Sunday morning. That anger is not always productive; indeed, all too often it distracts attention from solving real problems; it keeps us from squarely facing our own complicity in our condition, and prevents the African-American community from forging the alliances it needs to bring about real change. But the anger is real; it is powerful; and to simply wish it away, to condemn it without understanding its roots, only serves to widen the chasm of misunderstanding that exists between the races.

In fact, a similar anger exists within segments of the white community. Most working- and middle-class white Americans don’t feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race. Their experience is the immigrant experience – as far as they’re concerned, no one’s handed them anything, they’ve built it from scratch. They’ve worked hard all their lives, many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pension dumped after a lifetime of labor. They are anxious about their futures, and feel their dreams slipping away; in an era of stagnant wages and global competition, opportunity comes to be seen as a zero sum game, in which your dreams come at my expense. So when they are told to bus their children to a school across town; when they hear that an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committ ed; when they’re told that their fears about crime in urban neighborhoods are somehow prejudiced, resentment builds over time.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Hannity-Hal Turner

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:37:47 EDT

FOX, Sean Hannity, Hal Turner: Jaws of Hell on the Right

FOX is not a news channel. It is a propaganda mill. It engages in search and destroy missions. And it is apparently hospitable to influences that are vastly more alarming and noxious than the wall-to-wall soundbites they have been playing of the Rev. Wright. See my note on Sean Hannity and Hal Turner below.

I have no idea whether, by calling its propaganda news, FOX exposes itself to any FCC regulation. Certainly if the requirement were honesty, there would be cause to lift its license.The foregoing was written as a simple reaction to the following from the Obama Blog. I should mention as a veteran of innumerable forums since before Al Gore invented the Internet, the Obama Blog and its thousands of comment-makers has an almost unbelievable degree of civility. So Fox News evidently decided to pore through our millions of user-created pages on My.BarackObama.com and put a screenshot of inflammatory content on the front page of FoxNews.com.

You see, more than 700,000 people have created accounts on the system. You can create one right now if you choose, in about a minute -- anyone can.

Now, from time to time people get up to no good -- creating fake profiles (like one for Sean Hannity created today), or posting profane or inappropriate content. When they do, the community reports the offending content and if it violates our terms of service it is removed (as the Sean Hannity profile was).

My.BarackObama.com has been at the core of our bottom-up organizing strategy. The tools available have been put to work by a community of supporters that is bigger and more powerful than anything presidential politics has ever seen.

Evidently, Fox News didn't think it was a big deal that hundreds of thousands of ordinary Americans are participating in the democratic process creating groups and local events in communities all across the country.

But they did think it was a big deal that one random person on the Internet, without the knowledge of the Obama campaign, posted a profile in the system with the image of the New Black Panther Party on it.

When we were alerted of the existence of this page, we pulled it down. Yet even after we pulled the page, Fox News continues to disingenuously and prominently feature this "story" on their homepage.

If you have feedback for Fox News, you can email foxnewsonline@foxnews.com.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Where We Are Now

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:34:52 EDT

Obama : Where We Are Now

Everyone errs when they say Barack has to get BEYOND the race issue. What he needs to do is keep including it by spelling out the political advantages to ALL of UNITY.

Unity means that the low income person or family of any race, color, gender, persuasion needs to be united with his or her opposites, his or her scapegoats, his or her enemies, in order to test the waters against the real problem.

The folk who are making money hand over fist do not want this unity. They will contribute millions of dollars to see that this unity does not take place. This is the bull that Barack took by the horns yesterday and to frame the story in terms of getting BY the race issue is is simply a pipe dream.Give this a month folks. Let Barack get out there and reiterate as he is always able to do. Let him unify his own speaking to include the 65 percent presidency that David Wilhelm spoke about when he came aboard.

The race is OURS to win. Therefore it is ours to lose. We are not going to do that.

Hillary is looking tired, but I am not deceived. She rebounds.

Where are we now. We are poised to TIE the number of superdelegates Hillary has. A tipping point.

We are poised to make some serious decisions about how important Pennsylvania is. The only decision can be that it is is desperately important. If we lose we cannot have a rout. If we can win we need to win because that would end it.

So:

Barack will have made three speeches by the end of the day tomorrow. Race, Iraq and the Economy. These will become the fodder for a renewed stump speech that is going to move the campaign into the realm of common interests, common rewards, common victory.

If he can do that then where we are is where we have been for several months -- on the verge of victory, but not there yet.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Where We Are Now

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:34:50 EDT

Obama : Where We Are Now

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 NC Tie

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:32:36 EDT

Obama, Clinton Nearly Tied in North Carolina

The Reverend Wright issue has done major damage and Public Policy Polling ran a bunch of polls right in the middle of the worst sound bite tsunami. I think it can be said that Barack WON the 3:00 AM war. He did so by fighting back intensely. It remains to be seen if, by continuing on the offensive, he can finally overcome the effects of the Wright barrage.

I post this here to underline the serious crisis the campaign faces. We are entering the decisive phase.

Since Pennsylvania is at the center, I am christening Barack ROCKY and suggesting the campaign take its cues from the hero of that seminal film. Other polls can be found on my polls page.Democratic Tracking Poll: President

Barack Obama 44
Hillary Clinton 43

The Jeremiah Wright controversy has hurt Barack Obama in recent PPP polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and North Carolina is no different. Clinton is the closest she's been to Obama in the state since John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Clinton actually leads among Democrats in the poll, 44-43. But Obama has the overall lead based on a very strong performance with unaffiliated voters, with whom he has a 53-35 advantage.

The rules for voting in the North Carolina primary probably work to Clinton's advantage. Obama has done very well in states with open primaries because of his strong support from Republican and independent voters. But North Carolina has a closed primary with the exception of unaffiliated voters, who may choose which party's ballot they want to cast. Right now they're only making up 12% of the Democratic primary electorate.

The biggest movement in Clinton's direction since PPP's poll two weeks ago is among female voters. Obama led them by 4 in the last survey, Clinton now has a 2 point advantage.

Some folks in the national media seem to have written off North Carolina for Obama but it looks like the state could be up for grabs, particularly if Obama can't put his recent bad press behind him quickly.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Iraq Speech

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:29:48 EDT

Obama Speech on Iraq -- Full Text About | Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls | GameHere is the full text of Barack Obama's speech today on Iraq and National Security.The following is the text to Sen. Barack Obama’s 35-minute speech, which he delivered this morning at Fayetteville Technical Community College.

Just before America’s entry into World War I, President Woodrow Wilson addressed Congress: “It is a fearful thing to lead this great peaceful people into war,” he said. “...But the right is more precious than peace.” Wilson’s words captured two awesome responsibilities that test any Commander-in-Chief – to never hesitate to defend America, but to never go to war unless you must. War is sometimes necessary, but it has grave consequences, and the judgment to go to war can never be undone.

Five years ago today, President George W. Bush addressed the nation. Bombs had started to rain down on Baghdad. War was necessary, the President said, because the United States could not, “live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder.” Recalling the pain of 9/11, he said the price of inaction in Iraq was to meet the threat with “armies of fire fighters and police and doctors on the streets of our cities.”

At the time the President uttered those words, there was no hard evidence that Iraq had those stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. There was not any evidence that Iraq was responsible for the attacks of September 11, or that Iraq had operational ties to the al Qaeda terrorists who carried them out. By launching a war based on faulty premises and bad intelligence, President Bush failed Wilson’s test. So did Congress when it voted to give him the authority to wage war.

Five years have gone by since that fateful decision. This war has now lasted longer than World War I, World War II, or the Civil War. Nearly four thousand Americans have given their lives. Thousands more have been wounded. Even under the best case scenarios, this war will cost American taxpayers well over a trillion dollars. And where are we for all of this sacrifice? We are less safe and less able to shape events abroad. We are divided at home, and our alliances around the world have been strained. The threats of a new century have roiled the waters of peace and stability, and yet America remains anchored in Iraq.

History will catalog the reasons why we waged a war that didn’t need to be fought, but two stand out. In 2002, when the fateful decisions about Iraq were made, there was a President for whom ideology overrode pragmatism, and there were too many politicians in Washington who spent too little time reading the intelligence reports, and too much time reading public opinion. The lesson of Iraq is that when we are making decisions about matters as grave as war, we need a policy rooted in reason and facts, not ideology and politics.

Now we are debating who should be our next Commander in Chief. And I am running for President because it’s time to turn the page on a failed ideology and a fundamentally flawed political strategy, so that we can make pragmatic judgments to keep our country safe. That’s what I did when I stood up and opposed this war from the start, and said that we needed to finish the fight against al Qaeda. And that’s what I’ll do as President of the United States.

Senator Clinton says that she and Senator McCain have passed a “Commander in Chief test” – not because of the judgments they’ve made, but because of the years they’ve spent in Washington. She made a similar argument when she said her vote for war was based on her experience at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. But here is the stark reality: there is a security gap in this country – a gap between the rhetoric of those who claim to be tough on national security, and the reality of growing insecurity caused by their decisions. A gap between Washington experience, and the wisdom of Washington’s judgments. A gap between the rhetoric of those who tout their support for our troops, and the overburdened state of our military.

It is time to have a debate with John McCain about the future of our national security. And the way to win that debate is not to compete with John McCain over who has more experience in Washington, because that’s a contest that he’ll win. The way to win a debate with John McCain is not to talk, and act, and vote like him on national security, because then we all lose. The way to win that debate and to keep America safe is to offer a clear contrast, and that’s what I will do when I am the nominee of the Democratic Party – because since before this war in Iraq began, I have made different judgments, I have a different vision, and I will offer a clean break from the failed policies and politics of the past.

Nowhere is that break more badly needed than in Iraq.

In the year since President Bush announced the surge – the bloodiest year of the war for America – the level of violence in Iraq has been reduced. Our troops – including so many from Fort Bragg and Pope Air Force Base – have done a brilliant job under difficult circumstances. Yet while we have a General who has used improved tactics to reduce violence, we still have the wrong strategy. As General Petraeus has himself acknowledged, the Iraqis are not achieving the political progress needed to end their civil war. Beyond Iraq, our military is badly overstretched, and we have neither the strategy nor resources to deal with nearly every other national security challenge we face.

This is why the judgment that matters most on Iraq – and on any decision to deploy military force – is the judgment made first. If you believe we are fighting the right war, then the problems we face are purely tactical in nature. That is what Senator McCain wants to discuss – tactics. What he and the Administration have failed to present is an overarching strategy: how the war in Iraq enhances our long-term security, or will in the future. That’s why this Administration cannot answer the simple question posed by Senator John Warner in hearings last year: Are we safer because of this war? And that is why Senator McCain can argue – as he did last year – that we couldn’t leave Iraq because violence was up, and then argue this year that we can’t leave Iraq because violence is down.

When you have no overarching strategy, there is no clear definition of success. Success comes to be defined as the ability to maintain a flawed policy indefinitely. Here is the truth: fighting a war without end will not force the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future. And fighting in a war without end will not make the American people safer.

So when I am Commander-in-Chief, I will set a new goal on Day One: I will end this war. Not because politics compels it. Not because our troops cannot bear the burden– as heavy as it is. But because it is the right thing to do for our national security, and it will ultimately make us safer.

In order to end this war responsibly, I will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. We can responsibly remove 1 to 2 combat brigades each month. If we start with the number of brigades we have in Iraq today, we can remove all of them 16 months. After this redeployment, we will leave enough troops in Iraq to guard our embassy and diplomats, and a counter-terrorism force to strike al Qaeda if it forms a base that the Iraqis cannot destroy. What I propose is not – and never has been – a precipitous drawdown. It is instead a detailed and prudent plan that will end a war nearly seven years after it started.

My plan to end this war will finally put pressure on Iraq’s leaders to take responsibility for their future. Because we’ve learned that when we tell Iraq’s leaders that we’ll stay as long as it takes, they take as long as they want. We need to send a different message. We will help Iraq reach a meaningful accord on national reconciliation. We will engage with every country in the region – and the UN – to support the stability and territorial integrity of Iraq. And we will launch a major humanitarian initiative to support Iraq’s refugees and people. But Iraqis must take responsibility for their country. It is precisely this kind of approach – an approach that puts the onus on the Iraqis, and that relies on more than just military power – that is needed to stabilize Iraq.

Let me be clear: ending this war is not going to be easy. There will be dangers involved. We will have to make tactical adjustments, listening to our commanders on the ground, to ensure that our interests in a stable Iraq are met, and to make sure that our troops are secure. Senator Clinton has tried to use my position to score political points, suggesting that I am somehow less committed to ending the war. She makes this argument despite the fact that she has taken the same position in the past. So ask yourself: who do you trust to end a war – someone who opposed the war from the beginning, or someone who started opposing it when they started preparing a run for President?

Now we know what we’ll hear from those like John McCain who support open-ended war. They will argue that leaving Iraq is surrender. That we are emboldening the enemy. These are the mistaken and misleading arguments we hear from those who have failed to demonstrate how the war in Iraq has made us safer. Just yesterday, we heard Senator McCain confuse Sunni and Shiite, Iran and al Qaeda. Maybe that is why he voted to go to war with a country that had no al Qaeda ties. Maybe that is why he completely fails to understand that the war in Iraq has done more to embolden America’s enemies than any strategic choice that we have made in decades.

The war in Iraq has emboldened Iran, which poses the greatest challenge to American interests in the Middle East in a generation, continuing its nuclear program and threatening our ally, Israel. Instead of the new Middle East we were promised, Hamas runs Gaza, Hizbollah flags fly from the rooftops in Sadr City, and Iran is handing out money left and right in southern Lebanon.

The war in Iraq has emboldened North Korea, which built new nuclear weapons and even tested one before the Administration finally went against its own rhetoric, and pursued diplomacy.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Iraq Speech

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:27:25 EDT

Obama Will Speak On Iraq in Fayetteville at 10:15 AM At this point we seem to be outstripping the news media. Here is an almost live blog from the scene of Barack Obama's planned speech on National Security and Iraq. I will maintain this page through the morning as I believe Barack is now moving the entire campaign to a new level, like a movement in a symphony.I am not being naive or rhapsodic. This is against the backdrop of of the most mediocre administration imaginable and in the teeth of a country that does not even know how far we are falling at the moment. Anything with a measure of presence, reason and intelligence would look good.

However Barack is doing better than presence, reason and intelligence. He is essentially saying, OK America, I owe you this. I owe you my views on race. I owe you my views on national security and Iraq. And I owe you my views on the economy.

Three speeches of similar quality in three days.

At the end of this our MSM will be mightily embarrassed if they do not give some shrift to these seminal addresses. Ah, maybe they won't be.

But there is a small trickle that threatens now to turn into a stream and then become a tributary and then a wide river. It is the trickle of notes I have read of Republicans and blue collar folk and the very people Obama needs in his coalition of change. They heard the speech that the MSM said would go over their heads. And they came aboard.

I am hoping for a Pennsylvania miracle that will lead to the following result. Rep. Murtha will slap his thigh, in private, and rue the moment he failed to endorse Barack.

This election is about consigning the Clintonian wing of the Democratic party to a footnote in history reserved for the incremental, the compromised and the facile and the self-serving.

I await the Fayetteville leg of this journey with anticipation, hoping it will be broadcast and heard on this Fifth Anniversary of the worst decision made by the worst administration within memory. (Though I reserve a similar place for LBJ's, for similar reasons.)

Traffic to the Fayettville Observer blog linked at the top of this page seems to have stalled. I almost thought I could watch through their live feed instead of having to turn on the TV. In a year that will be standard (maybe) and I can get rid of the TV.

CNN: Hmmm, it looks as though the Bush speech is on deck. That suggests to me that the Barack speech will be delayed.

MSNBC: The surge has worked. (Sure. And there will be no civil war unless we stay forever.)

Bush is on all channels. We rescued millions from unspeakable horrors, he says to applause. How about at least 35,000 dead. Going on Vietnam totals.

My cable got cut off in NYC but Barack has been going strong. Moving into the concise and focused elements of what he really thinks and what he intends to do as President. I will post the talk and video here ASAP.

Thank the Lord for a wireless backup.'

Still on wireless, I have posted the full text of the Iraq speech on the Home Page.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Major Speeches

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:24:20 EDT

Obama Will Give Two Major Speeches Wednesday & Thursday

It's late and I am about ready to hit the hay. I was going to write about Obama in terms of his being a "profile in courage". But I see the New York Times in its Wednesday paper has preempted the title in a laudatory editorial. And to think they endorsed Clinton. You would not believe it to read their praise for Obama's faith, politics and race speech.Today (Wednesday) Obama will speak on Iraq and National Security and on Thursday he will speak on the Economy. That's all I know at this point.

I have the feeling that Barack is now taking the campaign to a different level.

I only hope that he continues to echo elements of today's speech -- the truth that has always been true:

Until the poor and the lower middle class of ALL groups, races, and so forth, get together, the nation will be prey to forces that are literally the Jaws of Hell -- the principalities and powers, the people with whom those in power typically have commerce.

Barack will need to deal with these people and forces. But from a position of power. That would be us.

That can only be the case if he can cut through the miasmal mist that keeps groups hating and dissing each other and turns it into a powerful majority.

Well I am tapped out, so I leave you with this little message.

Stay tuned.

Barack is back on track and we will win.

+

And Bill Clinton if you are reading, if you want a real mugging, dare to come and talk to me face to face. I respect you in some ways, sir. But you are lying when you say you did not play a race card in SC. And no one mugged you save your own careless or premeditated words. Come on downtown and dare say it looking me in the eye.

Good night.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 PA Miracle?

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:21:35 EDT

From Pennsylvania Poll to Pennsylvania Miracle

The Barack Obama Campaign can win in Pennsylvania only if they manage to gain one point a day between now and the April 22 Democratic primary election. Hillary Clinton currently has a 26 point advantage. This is according to Public Policy Polling and I have posted their analysis on my Polls page.We can do it.

Barack has this morning set a target than no politician has had the nerve to set -- ever. To move to the next stage of the civil rights revolution, to where white and black begin to join forces to overcome the divisive politics that has consistently managed to slice and dice the electorate and maintain gridlock.

Only a 65 percent Presidency can create the political force needed to stand against special interests and force through a radical program that will begin to set in place a better health and educational system and a more prosperous economic program based on attention to the need for a humongous environmental and infrastructure overhaul.

Only Barack Obama can move us toward that goal.

I fully believe Barack will be the Democratic nominee. But I do not think he will emerge undamaged from the Clinton assault unless we prove that we can achieve a Pennsylvania Miracle.

Here is what I believe to be the best way to win Pennsylvania.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 Philadelphia Speech

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:16:10 EDT

Full Text: Barack Obama's Philadelphia Speech 18 March 2008

Here is the full text as prepared for delivery of Barack Obama's ground-breaking speech on race and politics delivered this morning in Philadelphia.“We the people, in order to form a more perfect union.”

Two hundred and twenty one years ago, in a hall that still stands across the street, a group of men gathered and, with these simple words, launched America’s improbable experiment in democracy. Farmers and scholars; statesmen and patriots who had traveled across an ocean to escape tyranny and persecution finally made real their declaration of independence at a Philadelphia convention that lasted through the spring of 1787.

The document they produced was eventually signed but ultimately unfinished. It was stained by this nation’s original sin of slavery, a question that divided the colonies and brought the convention to a stalemate until the founders chose to allow the slave trade to continue for at least twenty more years, and to leave any final resolution to future generations.

Of course, the answer to the slavery question was already embedded within our Constitution – a Constitution that had at is very core the ideal of equal citizenship under the law; a Constitution that promised its people liberty, and justice, and a union that could be and should be perfected over time.

And yet words on a parchment would not be enough to deliver slaves from bondage, or provide men and women of every color and creed their full rights and obligations as citizens of the United States. What would be needed were Americans in successive generations who were willing to do their part – through protests and struggle, on the streets and in the courts, through a civil war and civil disobedience and always at great risk - to narrow that gap between the promise of our ideals and the reality of their time.

This was one of the tasks we set forth at the beginning of this campaign – to continue the long march of those who came before us, a march for a more just, more equal, more free, more caring and more prosperous America. I chose to run for the presidency at this moment in history because I believe deeply that we cannot solve the challenges of our time unless we solve them together – unless we perfect our union by understanding that we may have different stories, but we hold common hopes; that we may not look the same and we may not have come from the same place, but we all want to move in the same direction – towards a better future for of children and our grandchildren.

This belief comes from my unyielding faith in the decency and generosity of the American people. But it also comes from my own American story.

I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 Buchanan Lies

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:13:13 EDT

Pat Buchanan Lies Flat Out -- Sad Thing on MSNBC

UPDATE: READ BARACK'S ADDRESS

Pat Buchanan is painting Jeremiah Wright with a completely broad brush, taking the selected and intensely-played sound bites as representing Wright's entire understanding. Pat gets away with that. So much for nuance. I am waiting for Barack's speech and will comment as it proceeds. Sad of you Pat.

UPDATE: Pat will not concede that the statements he is universalizing are specific and not necessarily typical. Still sad. The silver lining is Sally Quinn, wise and accurate. Too bad she is not seen more often.Barack's speech has not started but my email box brings difficult news. Public Policy Polling says that Hillary has expanded her lead in PA to 26 points. I will post the entire poll on my Polls page when this is done. All this says is that the speech must do more than be monumentally influential and Lincolnesque. It must reverse the figures of PPP. I say this because this is the one poll that has never been wrong. Off sometimes by some numbers. But never wrong in SC, WI, TX and OH.

Here is Barack.

He is pointing to the universal need for struggle to move beyond the causes of anger and resentment. He is getting to the root of the intersection between political opportunism and racism. And he is perhaps making the first historic move to explicitly move beyond it.

A racial stalemate we've been stuck in for years.

We have no choice if we seek a more perfect union.

Conservative self-help was the message at Trinity.

The problem was assuming no change was possible.

Unity > prosperity for all.

Call for doing unto others as we would have done unto us.

Then he finally gets to the options -- more FOX and media distraction or addressing the injustices, organizing for change.

This time.

I wonder what Pat will say now,. But I have work do do. So I will post this as is,

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 Philadelphia Speech Preview

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:10:29 EDT

Barack Obama Delivers Major Address in Philadelphia at 10:15 AM Eastern Today

UPDATE: READ BARACK'S ADDRESS

Barack Obama's major address on race and his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright will be delivered in Philadelphia before a small audience of 100. I believe this address will rank above JFK's crucial speech in 1960 in which Kennedy reassured the nation that his Catholicism would have no effect on his capacity to be the Constitutional head of our nation. Here is the JFK speech video.

I believe this event will qualify as a Lincolnian moment. We are talking about unearthing and exposing and then moving slowly but surely beyond what Gunnar Myrdal called the American dilemma -- the glaring gap between our exalted ideals and our hellish practice.

I will make a very simple point which I believe should be understood by our main stream media MSM. It is that this speech was and is INEVITABLE.

No matter how this issue was brought up, the ugly scars of racism are real and persistent. It is a matter of some amazement that its manifestation over the Big Sleep between i968 and now has been widely ignored. When Barack has spoken of what needs to be done, he is talking about the huge change that will need to occur merely to begin realizing the dream that was never even envisioned during the War on Poverty days.

Is it too soon?

I do not believe so, but the answer hangs in the balance.

This morning, despite the FOX-driven sound bite firestorm, Barack remains firmly ahead not only in numbers but in a CNN poll that gives him a seven point edge over Clinton. More and more he is referred to as the presumptive nominee.

If I am not mistaken, there will be a BUMP up for Barack following this speech. Insofar as we can see the benefits of a society that slowly and surely, on the basis of conservative as well as liberal principles, on the basis of pragmatic reason, moves beyond the divided past, we can achieve the sea change.

I do not believe any of this has happened without reason. In other words I believe what has happened advances the Obama movement. It was predictable. Even the resolute pummeling from the FOX precincts.

I will be watching with you.

Obama Monday: “I believe in…making policy decisions based on facts and reason and analysis, as opposed to ideology.”

He was talking about economy, but watch his race speech to see if he reveals his emotional side along with his rational side.

Told reporters Monday in Monaca, Pennsylvania remarks will be on “the larger issue of race in this campaign.”

Says he won’t just talk about Rev. Wright, but “how some of these issues are perceived from within the black church issue for example.”

Politico: “A successful address would go a long way toward answering Hillary Rodham Clinton’s complaint that Obama has never shown he can handle the rough-and-tumble nature of modern political combat.”

As Michelle Obama reportedly rescheduled her own itinerary to be at his side in Philly, campaign aides tell the NY Times the candidate thinks it could be one of the most important speeches of his presidential candidacy.

[SOURCE]

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Tucker Carlson

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:07:20 EDT

Tucker Carlson Leads The Charge Against Obama

Tucker Carlson on MSNBC is leading the charge to prove Barack Obama heard the sound bites extracted from Jeremiah Wright's corpus of speeches and sermons. Most of his colleagues agree Barack must have heard them.

Dear Tucker, let me lead you through the reasons why Barack Obama did not hear these particular statements.

REASON ONE: The statements that have to do with Barack are statements he would have heard but did not, because in all probability he was out campaigning, but even more because Wright would not have said them when Barack was present.

REASON TWO: In the case of the post-9/11 words reason one above might pertain, but I am prepared to accept Barack's word.

REASON THREE: Barack knew the whole man and the whole church and this was about 1/1000th of the sum total of what was conveyed there.

Fortunately, tomorrow Tucker, Barack is laying out the entire history of his relationship with Wright and his thoughts on race. I am sure that Barack's credibility will not be in question after his speech, save by the Roger Ailes puppets on FOX.

Take heart Tucker, in a year you will be applauding Barack as a President whose values are shockingly conservative.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Bill Clinton Careless

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:04:09 EDT

Bill Clinton Is Flat Out Careless (Or Is It Clinton Radar?) Bill Clinton is flat out careless. If it is really the case that he never said anything against Barack Obama in South Carolina, then what did his dismissive remarks, which basically said Barack won it because he is Black, constitute? Carelessness? I will give Bill Clinton that if he will admit it.Let me then ask him, while I am on the subject, whether he was careless when, three years prior to the signing of the nuclear test ban in the 90s, he released tons of nuclear secrets while the Chinese nuclear program was still going full bore? Hindsight, Bill. Was that careless?

Now let me also ask whether the genocide you apologized for, Bill, Rwanda, was also a matter of carelessness? And did Hillary remind you, while genocide was happening, that you might want to pay a little more attention to it?

As I write, I think of linkages between you and me. We intersected, you and I. When you were a student at Yale Law School, helping in Joe Duffey's successful primary race against Tom Dodd in Connecticut, I was Joe's principal advisor and only speech writer. I was later joined as a writer by Michael Medved, which perhaps was an ironical forerunner of things to come.

I left the campaign when Joe did not challenge John Bailey to push Dodd out of an independent candidacy. Ever since then, I have figured that Democrats did not need to win to succeed in life.

You went from that environment to become governor of Arkansas. I went into a sort of exile from politics.

Only Barack's candidacy has emboldened me to believe that we can actually pick up, from the fatal spring of 1968, the dream that died then. When the curtain fell on the effort to bring the values of the beloved community into the practice of democracy in this country.

Do you know what makes me really mad, Bill?

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Shabby Attack Exposed

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:01:01 EDT

Shabby Clinton Attack Exposed -- Obama Record Documented

This Response to Clinton Attacks on Barack Obama's Record on Military Contractors was posted today on the Obama Blog. It deserves the widest circulation as an example of the distortion and duplicity inherent in the Clinton campaign.

During her speech today, Senator Clinton launched a false attack on Senator Obama’s position on military contractors. Below is a statement in response as well as more information on Senator Clinton’s history on this issue.

“Proving once again that she will say anything to win an election, Hillary Clinton is attacking Barack Obama on an issue where he has led and she did nothing until her campaign fell behind. Senator Clinton did nothing when the use of contractors was expanded in the Clinton Administration, she did nothing when Senator Obama sent a bill on contractor accountability to her committee, and after more than four years of war in Iraq she claimed to not even know contractors were unaccountable even though she sits on the Senate committee that oversees them. For all her talk of Day One, it took five years on the Armed Services Committee before Hillary Clinton decided that she was shocked to learn about contractors that were used by the Clinton Administration, and whose abuses were reported year after year after year during the Iraq War,” said Obama spokesman Dan Pfeiffer.

Clinton Announced That She Was Cosponsoring Legislation To Ban The Use Of Blackwater And Other Private Military Firms In Iraq.

Clinton announced that she has cosponsored legislation to ban the use of Blackwater and other private military companies in Iraq. "From this war's very beginning, this administration has permitted thousands of heavily-armed military contractors to march through Iraq without any law or court to rein them in or hold them accountable. These private security contractors have been reckless and have compromised our mission in Iraq. The time to show these contractors the door is long past due. We need to stop filling the coffers of contractors in Iraq, and make sure that armed personnel in Iraq are fully accountable to the U.S. government and follow the chain of command," said Senator Clinton. [Clinton release, 2/28/08]

CLINTON CLAIMED SHE DIDN'T KNOW THAT BLACKWATER WAS GIVEN IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION

Clinton Claimed That She Didn't Know About A Provision That Gave Blackwater Immunity From Prosecution In Iraq Because Of An Exemption Passed After The US Invasion.

"Clinton was asked about a statement she made… when criticizing the Bush administration's conduct in Iraq. She said she hadn't known that Blackwater USA, the military contractor accused of killing more than a dozen Iraqi civilians last month, had immunity from prosecution in Iraq because of an exemption approved soon after the US invasion. 'Maybe I should have known about it; I did not know about it,' she said." [Boston Globe, 10/11/07]

Barack Responds Today in PA

2004: Clinton Attended The Armed Services Committee Meeting Where Wolfowitz Testified on The Immunity Of Contractors—She Even Commented.

On April 20, 2004, Clinton was listed in attendance at an Armed Services Committee meeting in which Paul Wolfowitz spoke of Order No. 17 saying, "Further, we have Coalition Provisional Authority Order No. 17, I believe it is, that goes into more detail about the rights and privileges and immunities that pertain to foreign forces providing for security in Iraq." Clinton responded on the subject of the military's role following Iraqi sovereignty saying, "I think that this is a serious issue, because it's not only the possibility that the definition will take on a life of its own, causing all kinds of unintended consequences, but that in fact the earlier questions that the chairman raised about the rules of engagement for our military and the authority that they have following this period of sovereignty, however one defines it, I think are going to be very sticky. And then you throw into the mix all these private contractors running around, heavily armed, I think it becomes even more of a challenge." [Senate Armed Services Committee Meeting, 4/20/04]

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Barack Will Win

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 07:57:02 EDT

Obama's Trials Will Soon Be Over -- We Will Win

Why am I not alarmed by the Rev. Wright fracas? Because I know that it says more about our increasing irrelevant mainstream media than it does about Barack Obama. Because I know there is justice in what the man said. Because I know that distortion and misunderstanding are all too common -- a sort of Murphy's Law of soundbites. But mainly because I do not believe that Obama's trajectory will be hurt irreparably.Which is another way of saying Obama has been hit by the kitchen sink and is still standing. Why? Because the people aren't buying. Because this IS the time for change. And because it is time to be honest about the saturation of our nation with the very feelings that have been so public so recently.

Here is a link to an account that corroborates this: Obama's Minister Committed "Treason" But When My Father Said the Same Thing He Was a Republican Hero.

I myself do not need this reassurance. The assurance I am getting is that the flow of superdelegates is still Obamaward. The flow of Obama donors is now closer to two million than to the one it was a few weeks ago. The evidence from the Clinton precincts is one of what I would call cheap desperation -- beginning with Bill Clinton's recent remarks attempting once again to paint his South Carolina comments as having nothing to do with being a race card.

What we are seeing -- with no more illusions -- is Clinton politics as it always has been practiced. Always with the instant responses. Always with the Phil Spector Wall of Denial. And all it says to me is that they were the crown of an era that was rife with mediocrity. And of a politics that was cheap, tawdry, tasteless and horrendously reductionist in its expectations and dreams for this country.

The reason Barack will not have Hillary aboard will have more to do with distaste than political calculation. To have a joint ticket would be too great a concession to the tawdry past.

So I say that Barack's trials will soon be over, to echo an old song.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Lincoln Park 1968

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:25:04 EDT

I Was In Lincoln Park in 1968 & I'm Here Now

Here's a short -- slightly revised -- note I posted today -- 15 March, 2008 -- on the Obama Blog.

For what it's worth, as they say.I was in Lincoln Park in 1968 when Daley's police broke up an impromptu worship service where I gave a brief talk. I was 32 at the time and a younger guy came forward and started railing at my relatively peaceful statements. A woman well over thirty stepped into the circle and addressed him -- Why don't you kill us now?

Now all the people who were there are MUCH older or no longer with us. But what has changed? We managed to get Richard Nixon as we would not vote for Humphrey after Gene McCarthy was licked at the convention.

Then:

Politics became a win-win situation as Republicans and Democrats fed at the same lobbying trough in DC.

We are now paying the price of a politics that has filled our jails to overflowing, created a mortgage bubble that can drain everyone of their "wealth" and earned an international reputation that is execrable. In this sense Jeremiah Wright was more correct than he knew.

But I know also, from my own days at Union Theological Seminary and my familiarity with many things related to American churches and politics, that that Wright's "g-d damn" statement will not be properly seen as a prophetic denunciation, but as a simple and mindless curse. And that that will sit with the populace -- just as the swiftboat and willie horton stuff did. We are in many respects a know-nothing people.

The only antidote is, as Barack says, to get past it. If we get past it we win. If not our time is not yet. It is our effort and our present character that will tell.

Finally in the matter of crossovers -- there are three reasons Republicans cross over and we would need more precise polling to know which is the main one. 1. To help Hillary be the nominee and beat her in the general election. 2. To help Hillary be the nominee and then work for an "unbeatable" Clinton-Obama ticket and 3. to support Barack.

Our biggest allies are the math, Barack's steadiness and the actual strength, scope and positive character and unity of our movement.

And oddly enough, despite the best efforts of Sean Hannity, Rupert Murdoch and all the others who wish to make a mountain out of a molehill, skewering Jeremiah Writght as a hater on the basis of selected excerpts from talks and sermons, the Obama campaign moves along. Superdelegates coming aboard. Delegates being added from California and Iowa. And ever more desperate efforts by the Clinton campaign to maintain their position as part of the wealthy establishment that want her to be President. The Obama forces know this is a battle and the battle is being waged with open eyes and with a degree of understanding and purpose that should make any who are undecided think about the Obama alternative.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/16/2008 Steven Grossman

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:19:39 EDT

Steven Grossman's Departure from Democracy Steven Grossman is a guy from my old home state of Massachusetts who has been a chair of the DNC and who is now a supporter of Hillary Clinton. He has inadvertently revealed the underside of the thought processes of those who intend, if they can, to defeat the democratic process and emulate the mentality of those who did this back in 1968, a time I remember because I was in Lincoln Park fighting the Steve Grossmans of that era, good Democrats all. He is a year older than Hillary and ten years younger than me. Funny what a little time can do. The ten year youngers like Grossman and Clinton seem to have a deficient gene when it comes to thinking reasonably about things -- like national security, fairness and even what the nation needs.Grossman wrote his fellow superdelegates and urged to vote their own minds and not "to be mindless tabulators of primaries and caucuses won, or popular votes amassed."

Hillary Clinton is engaging in other efforts, besides yours, to defeat the democratic process. Challenging caucuses where she lost. Claim victories the DNC invalidated.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 NO Michigan/Florida Primaries

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:16:33 EDT

Simple Reasons for NO Michigan/Florida Primaries The simple reason is that they may have no impact on the nominating process. I am not saying to disenfranchise anyone. The whole process was and remains a mess, hubris on steroids. But my oft-stated counsel to seat existing delegations on the basis of negotiated settlements and possible penalties makes the best sense.To put it succinctly.

1. The way things are going, there will be a tipping point at the time of the PA primary if not before. This will be reached when Obama has as many committed superdelegates as Clinton and as even mathematically-impaired media start to see the figures on the wall.

2. If there is a tipping point, Obama will be the presumptive nominee before there could be a primary in Michigan -- which I assume is the only state hare-brained enough to plan one, Florida having at least two sensible congresspersons (Schultz and Wexler) whose minds are in synch with what I'm saying here. So any arguments based on massive attention being paid to Michigan would be zapped.

3. Primaries are ars much disenfranchisement as seating original delegations. In an imperfect process, the best answer is to negotiate some and penalize some and to knock heads if the campaigns do not act within the bounds of reason.

UTILITY NOTE -- if the Superdelegates link above is blinking,it is because Barack got some more delegates today.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Obama Will Win

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:14:11 EDT

Wrapping It Up for Obama -- It's in The New York Times

The newspaper that unwisely endorsed Hillary Clinton has provided the blueprint for how Barack Obama will wrap up the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. In a lead story today -- For Democrats, Increased Fears of a Long Fight -- the paper outlines the exact progression by which the process will be wrapped up -- sooner than later. The paper does not do this openly. But it is all there in the text.In essence superdelegates will grow more and more impatient, reading the signs and experiencing unseemly pressure from the Clintons. They will, as we've predicted, move in a gradual manner to Obama until a tipping point is reached.

My own thought has been that this would occur in April. Failing a decisive Pennsylvania victory for Hillary Clinton, it could happen on the night of the Pennsylvania primary.

Here are salient tea-leaves from the Times account:

...interviews suggested that the playing field was tilting slightly toward Mr. Obama in one potentially vital respect. Many of them said that in deciding whom to support, they would adopt what Mr. Obama’s campaign has advocated as the essential principle: reflecting the will of the voters.

Mr. Obama has won more states, a greater share of the popular vote and more pledged delegates than Mrs. Clinton.

And this from a superdelegate who has withstood the Clinton treatment:

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Fighting Smears

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:09:03 EDT

Obama Responding to Smear Campaigns

Barack Obama, like John McCain, is the subject of online efforts to smear him.

This page is one way to combat this.It categorically denies and refutes the smears that Barack Obama is secretly a Muslim, that he attended an extremist school as a child and that he does not say the pledge of allegiance to the flag.

Obama is a Christian, he attended a secular (non-religious) school in Indonesia and he has led the pledge of allegiance on the Senate floor numerous times.

Despite the truth, email smears are widespread. Comments as well. We have consistently noted that FOX circulates these smears with impunity, presenting them under the guise of their being news. FOX is run by Roger Ailes who was a colleague of Lee Atwater.

We are talking about two of the political figures who can be credited with having, in the name of politics, warped and bent our political system. Atwater ultimately repented. Ailes has done no such thing. CNN has debunked these salacious rumors.

If anyone forwards any such emails to you, PLEASE direct them to this page.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Bush Clinton Investments

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:05:32 EDT

The India Daily seems to be outstripping the US media in terms of following Bush and Clinton dollars. In Bush and Clinton’s secret billions of dollars in trouble as Carlyle Capital Corp could go bankrupt unless its private equity founder injects more money – financial meltdown continues, a troubled investment company seems to have snared a number of political luminaries. It would take some journalistic diligence to track this down. Not to mention some willingness by the Clintons to disclose their murky finances. Here is a salient paragraph: For 14 years now, with almost no publicity, the company has been signing up an impressive list of former politicians - including White House Budget Advisor, Bush/Clinton Administrations, Darman, the first President Bush and his secretary of state, James Baker; British former PM John Major; one-time World Bank treasurer Afsaneh Masheyekhi, Former Secretary of Defense and Deputy Director of the CIA, Carlucci, and several south-east Asian powerbrokers - and using their contacts and influence to promote the group. Among the companies Carlyle owns are those which make equipment, vehicles and munitions for the US military, and its celebrity employees have long served an ingenious dual purpose, helping encourage investments from the very wealthy while also smoothing the path for Carlyle's defence firms.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 More Michigan-Florida

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:02:31 EDT

Holding new primaries is an invitation to chicanery and lawsuits and huge expenses and I do not believe it will happen. The alternative is to seat the admittedly imperfect and even outlaw delegations of the two states.To remedy the imperfection of the original elections, there needs to be a negotiated settlement that is agreeable to both sides. The only people I have seen moving in this direction are Representatives Schultz and Wexler in Florida and they deserve plaudits for their reason and equanimity and willingness to be "bipartisan".

From what I have seen of the Michigan Governor on TV I am not encouraged.

In this situation I think lassitude and incompetence may prove to be our allies.

Primaries are hard to plan and even harder to implement. Forget them.

Seating imperfect delegations is a matter of negotiation.

A penalty -- maybe they don't vote the first ballot. Maybe their votes are reduced by the percentage of days they jumped the gun.

Whatever the resolution, both sides get to be magnanimous. Hillary gets a whack at the superdelegates. Barack racks up more delegates and ends up with a reasonable number in both contests.

Shall we say 50:50 in Michigan and 55-45 in Florida. Mathwise we might cede Hillary a total of ten for both contests.

I am quite convinced it will come down to negotiation.

In the case of do-overs, innate incompetence shakes hands with reason. And the answer is ixnay.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Obama In PA

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:17:03 EDT

Obama Can Win Pennsylvania Like Rendell Did A very smart article by Mark Silva called Obama Keys to the Keystone State offers a great strategy for winning the forthcoming Pennsylvania primary. All Obama needs to do is follow the strategy that was used by urban liberal Ed Rendell when he attained the governorship. Salient paragraphs are quoted below. If you are working for Obama in PS, I recommend you read the whole thing.Rendell did it by accomplishing three things:

Massive Concentration of Effort—Pennsylvania has 67 counties, and Rendell managed to lose 57 of them. But the counties he won were the big counties, and he won them big, for a 54 to 46 statewide victory. Key was the impressive percentages he recorded in Philadelphia and the four suburban counties. He rolled up 75% in Philadelphia and more than 80% in the suburbs. Rendell ended with 300,000 votes in the Southeast, twice his necessary statewide margin.

Iron Control of the Swing Vote—Rendell topped off Philly and the suburbs by winning the Lehigh Valley and much of the southcentral part of the state, capturing 60% or more in many of those counties. Rendell’s regional dominance in eastern Pennsylvania was critical. Nine of the ten counties he won were east of the Susquehanna.

Managed Statewide Turnout—Finally Rendell also was able to turnout a higher percentage of Democratic voters in the Southeast than voted in the Southwest. This was accomplished in part by increasing Democratic registration—including luring some Republicans across party lines, but mostly by exciting the voters in the Philadelphia TV market that overwhelmingly favored his candidacy.

Measured against Rendell’s 2002 template, Obama’s chances are not unpromising. He is positioned to emulate the Rendell strategy to a greater extent than is generally recognized. Essentially he must win the same ten counties Rendell won in 2002, while reducing Clinton’s margins in her strongholds. Currently he leads in Philly and will likely win the city decisively, making the suburbs a major battleground. The Democratic voters there largely mirror the upscale, affluent voters Obama has been attracting nationally: they are the most liberal in the state, strongly oppose the Iraq War, and have a low regard for President Bush. For insurance Obama needs to join the Philadelphia suburbs to the two pivotal swing areas, the Lehigh Valley and Southcentral, where the Democrats are moderate to liberal and where he currently polls well against Senator Clinton. Beyond this managing turnout will be crucial for him.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/14/2008 Our Crisis

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:14:19 EDT

Our Crisis is Not Economic

The best way to understand the current economic crisis is to see that it is not economic. It is political, but even that designation is inadequate. It is a seismic evolutionary fissure that has yet to be fully identified. This post, and links to a few other exploratory posts on this blog, will seek to outline what I believe to be the prominent features of our situation and the likely avenues for a move into the future.The reason the current crisis is not economic is that our economy is by any measure unsustainable.

We cannot survive by hallowing indebtedness ad infinitum, both as a government panacea and an individual or family lifestyle or as a prominent feature of much business. A culture of indebtedness is not sustainable.

We cannot survive by palliative tweaks to our current structures under the label of "green". Current advertisements for companies that claim to be going green may lull us into believing that we can survive by moving this way and that among existing options such as various fuels.

Even if we could prop up the current system, it would not accomplish the best purpose of an economic system which is to make it possible for all within it to achieve a measure of relief from poverty, illness and ignorance. At its best our global system can be described as an amalgamation of capitalism (widely understood) and philanthropy, defined not in the amazingly narrow manner of a recent New York Times Magazine, but as the sum total of activities we engage in under the label not-for-profit. Including educational and medical institutions as well as the plethora of associations and NGOs and governmentl agencies that are non-profit (sic).

Our current system is a faltering machine whose product is benign genocide -- which I define as the sum total of global deaths that result from the way the system is set up. Any honest redoing of our global economy must at least recognize why the current mechanisms fail. Or else we shall be condemned to self-delusion. believing than incremental tweaks are a real solution and celebrating achievements whose celebration is in itself a cause for tears.

The answer to the conundrum created by acknowledging that our present economic system is unsustainable, is an integral politics which is providentially the potential of an Obama candidacy.

Such a politics can communicate that the solution to our problems is not merely a matter of moving beyond religious, racial, gender and cultural barriers, but by creating a culture of integral communication of the elements needed to conquer problems and of integral projects which exemplify such behavior in action.

If Barack Obama is elected, he will be a leader fit for these times. He will, I believe, propose not that we compete to bring our economy back but that we move to a post-oil, post capitalist-philanthropic, post-debt-enslaved, post-consumer culture based on a reclamation of key values that have been sliced and diced in our Balkanized intellectual environment.

The primacy of the individual. This is not conservative or liberal, it is simply the truth.

The primacy of public space as a measure of cultural attainment.

The creation of new human settlements based on a wedding of high technology and values implicit in Christopher Alexander's pattern language. These I envision as experimental nodes where groups live independent of the need to drive cars.

The understanding that being green involves doing so on a scale that requires what the New Testament calls new wine skins. In other words, it makes sense to build something green and integral from bottom to top that can be home and workplace and cultural space for from 5-10.000.

There is clearly more to all this. But, for the moment, this is enough to get the ball rolling.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/14/2008 Barack's Faith

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:12:51 EDT

Barack Obama on His Faith and His Church FOX is trying to destroy Barack Obama. It will not succeed. Like truth marching on, the Obama Campaign will march on. Today Barack issued the following statement as a post to HuffPost. What he says did not need to be said because he has long since made everything here crystal clear. This is another "Do I make my self clear?" moment, for our inestimable MSM.Barack Obama: On My Faith and My Church

The pastor of my church, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, who recently preached his last sermon and is in the process of retiring, has touched off a firestorm over the last few days. He's drawn attention as the result of some inflammatory and appalling remarks he made about our country, our politics, and my political opponents.

Let me say at the outset that I vehemently disagree and strongly condemn the statements that have been the subject of this controversy. I categorically denounce any statement that disparages our great country or serves to divide us from our allies. I also believe that words that degrade individuals have no place in our public dialogue, whether it's on the campaign stump or in the pulpit. In sum, I reject outright the statements by Rev. Wright that are at issue.

Because these particular statements by Rev. Wright are so contrary to my own life and beliefs, a number of people have legitimately raised questions about the nature of my relationship with Rev. Wright and my membership in the church. Let me therefore provide some context.

As I have written about in my books, I first joined Trinity United Church of Christ nearly twenty years ago. I knew Rev. Wright as someone who served this nation with honor as a United States Marine, as a respected biblical scholar, and as someone who taught or lectured at seminaries across the country, from Union Theological Seminary to the University of Chicago. He also led a diverse congregation that was and still is a pillar of the South Side and the entire city of Chicago. It's a congregation that does not merely preach social justice but acts it out each day, through ministries ranging from housing the homeless to reaching out to those with HIV/AIDS.

Most importantly, Rev. Wright preached the gospel of Jesus, a gospel on which I base my life. In other words, he has never been my political advisor; he's been my pastor. And the sermons I heard him preach always related to our obligation to love God and one another, to work on behalf of the poor, and to seek justice at every turn.

The statements that Rev. Wright made that are the cause of this controversy were not statements I personally heard him preach while I sat in the pews of Trinity or heard him utter in private conversation. When these statements first came to my attention, it was at the beginning of my presidential campaign. I made it clear at the time that I strongly condemned his comments. But because Rev. Wright was on the verge of retirement, and because of my strong links to the Trinity faith community, where I married my wife and where my daughters were baptized, I did not think it appropriate to leave the church.

Let me repeat what I've said earlier. All of the statements that have been the subject of controversy are ones that I vehemently condemn. They in no way reflect my attitudes and directly contradict my profound love for this country.

With Rev. Wright's retirement and the ascension of my new pastor, Rev. Otis Moss, III, Michelle and I look forward to continuing a relationship with a church that has done so much good. And while Rev. Wright's statements have pained and angered me, I believe that Americans will judge me not on the basis of what someone else said, but on the basis of who I am and what I believe in; on my values, judgment and experience to be President of the United States.

=========

ADDENDUM -- POSTED TO THE OBAMA BLOG:

The country is getting a needed education. FOX's campaign will not achieve their purpose. By the end of this more and more will recognize that what Jeremiah was saying was merely a recapitulation of what Malcolm X said, minus the threat of an eye for an eye which was also a part of Malcolm's message. By the end Malcolm had achieved a state of peace and was not preaching a separatist message. The reality is that every human being is a spectrum from the most base and infantile to the sublime and trancscendent. Character is where one is on the spectrum. Barack and anyone with open eyes knows full well the part of the spectrum where the reaction is one of anger and hurt and hostility. He also knows and believes that we as a people can move forward just as Malcolm did. In his whirlwind tour of the MSM last night Barack made it clear that this is a teaching moment for America. I think that is what this is basically about, bringing more people to a more mature understanding of the pain in our past and the hope in our future. Truth marching on.

It is also a theological education. The Biblical prophets voiced the judgment on a disobedient nation. It was not treason. It was faith and the hope of repentance and change.

Best, S 3/15

GOOD READING: Our Crisis is Not Economic

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/14/2008 Clinton in PA

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 17:08:49 EDT

My Annotated Response to the Clinton Campaign PA Memo An annotated response to the Clinton Campaign's "Keystone Test" challenge is making the rounds . I have written my own response below.

To: Interested Parties
From: Clinton Campaign
Date: Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Re: Keystone Test: Obama Losing Ground

The path to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue goes through Pennsylvania so if Barack Obama can't win there, how will he win the general election?

[Answer: Obama can win there. If he doesn't he wins anyway. He has already won and the Clinton Campaign is now engaged in the Kill The Party or Rescind Obama's Victory phase.]

After setbacks in Ohio and Texas, Barack Obama needs to demonstrate that he can win the state of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the last state with more than 15 electoral votes on the primary calendar and Barack Obama has lost six of the seven other largest states so far -- every state except his home state of Illinois.

[Obama's Texas setback left him with more delegates than Hillary Clinton has. March 4 was an essential wash. I suppose if Obama wins Pennsylvania, you will say he has only been able to win two states with 15 or more delegates. Slice and dice away Messrs. Penn and Wolfson. Prepare to take the pipe.]

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 Obama-Dodd Bill

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:19:07 EDT

Obama-Dodd Housing Solution Barack Obama has a way to solve our housing crisis. So does Senator Chris Dodd. The only requirement is an Obama candidacy and a willing U.S. Congress. Then we get a new FHA Housing Security Program.Yet another reason for superdelegates to back Barack sooner than later, so we can get down to the nuts and bolts of change.

(Help this blog to become YOUR source for CHANGE info -- Bookmark Now)

Here's the Obama Housing Solution

Allow homeowners to obtain mortgages with reasonable and fair terms.

Prevent foreclosures.

Ease the credit crunch.

The proposed legislation will:

Spur lenders (with incentives) to buy or refinance existing mortgages.

Mortgages will be converted into 30-year fixed mortgages.

Homeowners facing foreclosure will keep their homes.

A federal backstop, but not a bailout. What Nietzsche in another context called a revaluation.

Obama's solution includes

Pre-foreclosure counseling

Tax breaks on interest payments, and

Tough penalties on fraudulent lenders

To stabilize things ASAP. And to prevent such crises in the future. To quash idiotic credit and lending behavior. To combat the tyranny of small print. To help combat the effects of greed and ill-judgment.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 Earmarks

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:16:23 EDT

Hillary Hides Earmarks, Not So Barack

Earmarks are things a Senator does for her state. They are often PORK or payment for political favors. Barack Obama has released his earmarks for every year he has served in the U.S. Senate. Hillary Clinton's earmarks, like her tax returns and about everything else we want to look at, remain unavailable to view. Hillary Clinton diggeth her political grave by secrecy., innuendo and trust in failed advisors.There is still a chance for you Hillary.

Renounce and excoriate Geraldine Ferraro for messing up your claim to care for all Americans.

Apologize to Barack for the "as far as I know" slur on 60 Minutes.

Fire Mark Penn and Howard Wolfson.

Retire the 3:00 AM Ad and remove it from your web site.

And reveal your earmarks.

And your tax returns.

And the record of all those things you did in the White House during your First Lady time.

If your answer is that you will do such things when you have won the nomination, I trust and hope we shall never see them.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 Superdelegate Anarchy 2

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:13:37 EDT

Superdelegate Anarchy 30 To Go UPDATED

UPDATE April 7. 2008. This was written in early March. I am leaving the text below as it was. The margin is now 30, not 36. Superdelegate Anarchy has been the precise means by which this process is being brought to a conclusion. While many look for a major superdelegate surge in the event of an Obama victory or even a close loss in Pennsylvania, I believe the process will continue prior to April 22. The media have begun to perceive this now

I'm for superdelegate anarchy. Right now any superdelegate can do whatever he or she pleases. I am hoping that 36 will move to Barack Obama. 36? Why so? Because that will make Barack and Hillary even.Yesterday one came aboard. One or two a day will do just fine. Anarchy. Not marching in lockstep with anyone.

Why? I mean, why Barack?

Well, he can win. (Even Morning Joe -- on Bill Maher -- conceded the Democratic nominee will have a landslide win and there will be 60 Democratic Senators.)

My Electoral Game proves that Barack is ahead in all respects.

He is cool and collected, not inclined to descend into double-entendres or vindictive lingo. I will not elaborate. Listen to what the military folk say.

He has great things he wants to do, and enough of them can be done by executive action that he will have a fantastic First Hundred Days.

It is the RIGHT thing to do. I will not go into the arguments about the Clinton campaign. Suffice to say, auperdelegate, if you have been repelled by one thing and another, there is some serious justice involved in declaring for Barack.

Enough. I celebrate superdelegate anarchy. It is a beautiful movement. It will help make this a more humane and civil proceeding and wrap things up in a timely way.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 No Do-Overs

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:07:28 EDT

Florida-Michigan Do-Overs? No Way

My prediction is that there will be no do-overs in Michigan and Florida. Nor will the original results of these semi-elections be allowed to stand. Nor will there be a 50-50 split.As I've repeatedly suggested, I believe this will be resolved by negotiating to seat the delegations of Michigan and Florida with some evidence that the states are being penalized for essentially messing with the primary process and holding elections that were flawed because of the absence of legitimate campaigns.

I hesitate to suggest what the penalty will be, but I believe the one that would make the most sense is to seat the existing delegations and give them a vote on the second, but not the first ballot. This would effectively liberate the delegates to vote however they wish if the convention went to a second ballot.

How would the delegations be composed? I assume that would be negotiated.

This makes massively more sense than dickering over mail-in elections which are not even legal in Florida or do-overs funded by Clinton financial heavies. Really.

Take the flawed results and create a reasonable penalty and a negotiated resolution and then say take it or leave it.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Obama Vs. Clinton

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:02:53 EDT

NEVER POSTED

Barack Obama far esceeds the reach of Hillary Clinton when it cones to carrying states in the fall Presidential election. That is the conclusion of numerous legislators interviewed by <a target="new" href="http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/eyeing-obama-coattails-2008-03-12.html">The Hill.</a></h3>

The South and West are areas many feel are within Obama's grasp.<blockquote>Obama’s advantage over Clinton would be most pronounced in the Southern and Western states President Bush carried in 2000 and 2004, say lawmakers interviewed by The Hill. In total, 32 members of Congress from these “red states” have endorsed Obama. Twenty-two lawmakers from those states have backed Clinton.</blockquote>

The real question is how capacious the candidate's coattails are:<blockquote>Lawmakers have begun looking more closely at how the nominee may affect their own reelections or influence races in their states. Sensing this, Obama supporters have pushed their colleagues to consider how Obama and Clinton would impact Democratic candidates in November.

“I’ve had quiet conversations with a number of members,” said Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), who has endorsed Obama. “I don’t think there’s any doubt about it, Obama would be more helpful to House candidates virtually everywhere.</blockquote>

Barack Obama has already been instrumental in helping two House candidates win special elections.<blockquote>Obama’s campaign manager David Plouffe argued in a conference call with reporters Wednesday that Clinton would fare poorly in red states.

“Really amazingly, they said that the Democratic nominee could not carry the Carolinas,” said Plouffe of the Clinton campaign. “We think that speaks to their weakness in this general election.”
“I think it’s important to the party — the Democratic Party simply cannot afford to have another election where we have a very narrow playing field, and where we have no margin of error,” said Plouffe. “I think that the comments speak to the fact that states like North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, are going to be very difficult for Sen. Clinton to put in play.”

Republicans have indicated they would try to use Clinton’s unpopularity in conservative areas of the country against Democratic candidates.</blockquote>

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Military Support

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 13:24:21 EDT

Barack Obama's Military Support -- Commander in Chief Creds Affirmed About | Most Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | PollsThe video below suggests that Barack Obama is the more likely candidate to serve as a hands-on commander in chief. He has been consistent in this campaign while John McCain has shown a frayed temper and Hillary Clinton has evidenced lapses in judgment that are consistent with her past.With Barack Obama I believe we can look forward to a period in which our military is enhanced, our military decisions are wise and our international reputation is restored.

Why Distinguished Military Folk Stand With Barack Obama

More On:

Merrill McPeak
John Nathman
Hugh Robinson

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Axelrod/Ferraro

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 13:22:38 EDT

Axelrod Never Called Ferraro A Racist. It's HER Term! About | Most Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | PollsI cannot find anything that indicates that David Axelrod called Geraldine Ferraro a racist, which is what she has been saying all over the media today.Here, in a followup article from The Daily Breeze, is what I do find:
Obama campaign manager David Axelrod called Ferraro's comments part of an "insidious pattern" of remarks from Clinton supporters that have drawn attention to Obama's race.

"When you wink and nod at offensive statements, you're really sending a signal to your supporters that anything goes," Axelrod said, according to ABC News.

Ferraro said the Clinton campaign cannot fire her because she is not an adviser.

"It's impossible to fire somebody who's not involved with it," she said.

She also said she is familiar with Axelrod from his work for minority candidates in New York.

"He knows damn well that the best thing to do in a situation like this is to come back and hit with race," Ferraro said, adding that the response is a sign that the Obama campaign is "worried" about the first-term senator's lack of experience.

Ferraro said she was not trying to diminish Obama's candidacy, and acknowledged up front that she would not have been the vice presidential nominee in 1984 if she had been a man.

But she also echoed remarks of feminist leaders like Gloria Steinem, who argued in the New York Times that Obama would not have succeeded if he were a woman because gender is "the most restricting force in American life."

"Sexism is a bigger problem," Ferraro argued. "It's OK to be sexist in some people's minds. It's not OK to be racist."

What Axelrod is here described as saying is not that she is a racist but that her statement was in essence a code to Hillary Clinton supporters. Like Hillary Clinton's 3:00 AM video. Like Bill Clinton's Jesse Jackson remarks.

During my search I found she is a contributor to FOX News. Where she was stating that the campaign was calling her a racist.

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 GOP for Clinton

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 13:20:45 EDT

Republicans Love Hillary So Much they Vote for Her

About | Most Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | PollsIt is perfectly legal in many states for Republicans to vote for a Democrat in the primaries. This year, in increasing percentages, they are voting for Hillary Clinton.This would be wonderful if they were actually wishing to vote for Hillary in the fall. Why, we would give her the nomination on bended knee if that were so. No such luck. These votes have the simple purpose of making Hillary the Democratic nominee so that John McCain can be elected in the fall.

They are afraid of Barack Obama, with reason. Republicans like him. So do Independents. He can win Red and Blue states. He is the presumptive nominee.

If our sit-on-their-hands superdelegates would perceive this, we might get this charade over with and get down to the brass tracks of the Obama fall campaign.

Perceive what the Republicans are doing here.

UPDATE:

Happy day. I just chacked my Superdelegates page and found at the CNN link that Hillary was MINUS a superdelegate and Barack was plus a sup[erdelegate. It is this slow flow day by day that will result in Barack's nomination prior to the close of the primary season.

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Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Advice from Angelo Dundee

Stephen C. Rose in NYC — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 13:18:36 EDT

POSTED FROM

Stephen C. Rose Obama Diary

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008 Penn Dreams

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008 FAUX FOX

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/20/2008 Nomination Path

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Hannity-Hal Turner

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Where We Are Now

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Where We Are Now

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 NC Tie

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Iraq Speech

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Iraq Speech

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/19/2008 Major Speeches

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 PA Miracle?

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 Philadelphia Speech

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 Buchanan Lies

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/18/2008 Philadelphia Speech Preview

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Tucker Carlson

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Bill Clinton Careless

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Shabby Attack Exposed

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Barack Will Win

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/17/2008 Lincoln Park 1968

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/16/2008 Steven Grossman

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 NO Michigan/Florida Primaries

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Obama Will Win

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Fighting Smears

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Bush Clinton Investments

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 More Michigan-Florida

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/15/2008 Obama In PA

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/14/2008 Our Crisis

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/14/2008 Barack's Faith

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/14/2008 Clinton in PA

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 Obama-Dodd Bill

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 Earmarks

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 Superdelegate Anarchy 2

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/13/2008 No Do-Overs

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Obama Vs. Clinton

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Military Support

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Axelrod/Ferraro

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 GOP for Clinton

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 Advice from Angelo Dundee

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/12/2008 NYC Voting Irregulatities

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/11/2008 Obama Wins Mississippi

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/11/2008 Wolf Blitzer Ad Nauseam

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/11/2008 Superdelegates

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/11/2008 Mindless Media

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/11/2008 Al Gore

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/11/2008 Red Phone Race Card

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/10/2008 Ultimate Hypocrisy

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/10/2008 Nightmare Ticket

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/10/2008 No Vote By Mail

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/09/2008 No Do Over Fla. MI

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/08/2008 Ways To Resolve Fla.-Michigan

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/08/2008 Complex Clinton Psychology

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/08/2008 Bill Foster

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/08/2008 3:00 AM Child Surprise

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/08/2008 NY Times Should Rescind Hillary Backing

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/08/2008 Call To Superdelegates

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/07/2008 John Edwards

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/07/2008 Gerri Peev

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/07/2008 McCauliffe Blows Smoke

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/07/2008 Hillary & Samantha

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/07/2008 Stalled Campaign

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/07/2008 Clinton & McCain

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/06/2008 Michigan and Florida

Obama versus McCain

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/06/2008 Why She Will Quit

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/06/2008 Clinton Bombshell

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/0/2008 Tax Return Vulnerabilit

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/05/2008 Clinton Security Problem

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/05/2008 Killing The Party

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/05/2008 New Obama Math

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/05/2008 Clinton Tax Returns Again

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/05/2008 Questions for Clinton

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 03/04/2008 Muscle and Caveat

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 02/28/2008 Clinton Tax Returns

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 02/28/2008 Health Care

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 02/28/2008 Foreign Policy

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 02/27/2008 Obama Tuesday Victory?

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 02/27/2008 Obama Knockout?

Obama Diary A History of the Primary 02/25/2008 Ohio Predictions