Principles in Politics

Obama throws down the gauntlet in N.C.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:49:35 EDT

http://www.indyweek.com/gyrobase/Content?oid=oid%3A259469

From this week's Independent 10 JUN 2008 • by Bob Geary

Less than a week after he became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Barack Obama launched his "Change That Works for You" tour in Raleigh Monday, and its main message couldn't have been clearer. The risky choice to make in the '08 presidential election isn't electing him—rookie national leader though he may be; it's staying the downward course with the Bush administration and Republican presidential nominee John McCain, whose economic policies—Obama argued—are the same as President Bush's. "It is time to try something new," Obama told an invitation-only audience at the State Fairgrounds. "The seriousness of this moment tells us we can't afford not to try."

Click for larger image • Barack Obama blasted the economic policies of President Bush—and by extension, his acolyte, GOP nominee John McCain, telling a Raleigh audience: "Instead of investing $12 billion a month to rebuild Iraq, I think it's time we invested in our roads and schools and bridges and started to rebuild America."
Photo by Jenny Warburg

Those expecting detailed policy statements from Obama will have to wait. This was a red-meat speech with a couple of proposals to address the nose-diving economy in the short term, plus a promise to soon deliver his ideas for long-term economic reform. But overall, the point was that Obama understands the American Dream is in deep trouble, and he will offer fundamental changes to restore it; McCain, Obama said, doesn't and won't.

In the short term, Obama called for a second round of immediate fiscal stimulus—in the form of more federal rebate checks—to pump $50 billion into the economy; he renewed his call for a $10 billion foreclosure prevention fund to help struggling mortgage-payers refinance their loans. He also advocated for an immediate extension of unemployment benefits, given that there have been five consecutive months of job loss—a total of 320,000 jobs shed since January.

His long-term program agenda, Obama said, will focus on workforce development, including beefing up science and technology training in our colleges and universities, and on investments in the renewable-energy industry to break the nation's dependence on imported oil. He's proposing an annual $4,000 college tuition subsidy in return for student community or national service after graduation. He also promised to invest in public infrastructure to create jobs and build the economy. And he said his health-care reform plans would offer every American affordable insurance while reducing premiums for the average family with insurance now by $2,500 a year.

All of his programs are "paid for," Obama said, with off-setting proposals to eliminate corporate tax loopholes and the Bush administration's tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. Obama's own tax-cut plan is a $1,000 a year reduction for the 95 percent of working families who are "middle-class" or below, he said, but the rich would pay more.

He's also supporting a windfall-profits tax on oil companies. A McCain plan to cut corporate taxes as an economic stimulus measure, by contrast, would reduce Exxon Mobil's current tax bill by $1.2 billion a year, Obama charged.

"When it comes to the economy, John McCain and I have a fundamentally different vision of where to take the country," Obama said. "Because for all of his talk of independence, the centerpiece of his economic plan amounts to a full-throated endorsement of George Bush's policies"—including a permanent occupation of Iraq.

The Independent U.K. reported last week that the Bush administration is negotiating a secret deal to establish more than 50 permanent bases in Iraq. As part of the pact, the newspaper reported, Bush is insisting on immunity from Iraqi law for U.S. troops and contractors, as well as a free hand to carry out military activities without consulting the Baghdad government.

"Instead of investing $12 billion a month to rebuild Iraq," Obama declared, "I think it's time we invested in our roads and schools and bridges and started to rebuild America."

Obama brought no North Carolina-specific proposals, however. Nothing about the state's road-building, transit or school-capacity needs. In fact, the decision to come to Raleigh on the first day of the "tour" seemed a bit hurried, and couched in national political terms more than state ones, with Obama announcing that he's not conceding the "red states" to McCain and intends to compete in places like Virginia and North Carolina.

Obama's audience included former Sen. John Edwards and his wife, Elizabeth Edwards, who were introduced but didn't speak and left as Obama finished. Gov. Mike Easley, who supported Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, took the stage to introduce Obama. "I know I'm late," Easley joked. "But I am on the train."

Click for larger image • Switcheroo: Initially a Hillary Clinton supporter, Gov. Mike Easley is now backing Obama.
Photo by Jenny Warburg

The only other speaker was a Pittsboro woman, Pamella Cash-Roper, who spoke about her husband's and her tough economic situation since both developed heart problems, had bypass surgeries, were unable to work, and lost their jobs and their health insurance.

Cash-Roper said she was a lifelong Republican who believes in the American Dream and tried to live it. But when their health issues made it impossible for them to work, "the help we thought would always be there was nowhere to be seen," she said. That convinced her the country needs change, from the "George Bush economy of special interests and big business" to policies that help "hard-working people."

After the event, Cash-Roper, 54, said her 58-year-old husband, Keith Roper, who was an electrical technician at WakeMed, needed heart surgery in 2000 and couldn't work thereafter. He lost his job and their company-paid health benefits; and though federal law guaranteed him extended health insurance for 18 months, they couldn't afford the $600 a month insurance payments on top of the $1,800 a month for his prescriptions.

Meanwhile, Cash-Roper said, they were dropped by their disability insurance carrier, a decision they continue to dispute, so far, unsuccessfully. So they sold their house, moved to a smaller one and went without health insurance for two years until he became eligible, as a Social Security disability recipient, for Medicare.

A nurse, Cash-Roper continued to work as a home-health aide until 2005 when she, too, needed bypass surgery and also turned to disability payments.

Today, she said, the two live on combined disability payments of $1,164 a month. Each takes about 15 kinds of medicine paid for by a state prescription-subsidy plan enacted during the Easley administration and paid for from tobacco-settlement funds funneled through the Health & Wellness Trust Fund.

It cuts their costs to between $2 and $4 a month for each prescription, she said. "If that had not been implemented," she said, "we'd probably both be dead."

State Rep. Dan Blue, D-Wake, who, along with Congressman G.K. Butterfield, a Democrat from the 1st District, has served as an unofficial state campaign chair for Obama, predicted that he can win North Carolina in November. Butterfield was less certain, saying it'll be "hard work" and "close, but I think we can come out on top."

Blue said Obama had 300 paid staffers in North Carolina prior to the May 6 primary here, and he expected the campaign will have at least that many again in the fall. They, and Obama's thousands of volunteers, will be concentrating on registering new voters, especially young and minority voters, and turning them out for the general election. Whether the increased turnout will be enough to defeat McCain, Blue said, will depend on Obama's message. "They have to believe that an Obama presidency will make a difference in their lives."

Poll shows Obama putting NC in play!!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:46:45 EDT

YES WE CAN!!!

I'm telling you, folks. NC will be BLUE this fall!

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/poll_suggests_obama_is_putting.php

By Eric Kleefeld - June 12, 2008, 1:33PM

Barack Obama's promise to make a play for North Carolina -- a state that has consistently voted Republican since 1980 -- might just have some potential to really pay off, a new poll from Rasmussen suggests.

The numbers: McCain 45%, Obama 43%, within the ±4% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that have shown McCain with only a small lead here.

Another bad sign for McCain is that 54% of respondents said it's more important to bring the troops home form Iraq than it is to win the war, versus only 40% who think victory is more important than leaving -- a very bad finding for McCain in this traditionally red state.

Obama putting the swing states in play!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:42:52 EDT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/12/AR2008061203658.html

By Peter Slevin

Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 13, 2008; Page A05

CHICAGO, June 12 -- Moving to harness the grass-roots energy that helped win the Democratic nomination, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign will deploy 3,600 volunteers in 17 states this weekend, each committed to six consecutive weeks of full-time political work.

More on Party Unity: Dems are happy with their party's nominee. The republican's with their nominee? Not so much...

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:38:14 EDT

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/poll_dems_satisfied_with_obama.php

Poll: Dems Satisfied With Obama As Nominee -- And Republicans Aren't With McCainBy Eric Kleefeld - June 12, 2008, 11:16PM

A new number from the latest Hotline/Diageo poll goes a long way toward dispelling the idea that Barack Obama is leading a seriously divided party. On the contrary, the poll suggests that it's John McCain who has a problem in this regard.

The poll, conducted in the wake of Obama's clinching the nomination and including sampling dates from before Hillary Clinton's final concession, found that 68% of Democratic primary voters were satisfied with Obama as the nominee, with 30% preferring someone else.

By contrast, only 52% of Republican primary voters were satisfied with John McCain as their nominee, with 45% preferring someone else. And this is despite the fact that McCain sewed up his nomination months ago, while Democratic emotions were still raw when this poll was conducted.

McCain's Campaign manager: undermining America

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:35:48 EDT

In today's Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/12/mccain-lobbyist-scandal-c_n_106832.html

The post-primary Bounce!!!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:33:15 EDT

Simon Rosenburg looks at some very encouraging numbers as the party unites around our candidate:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/simon-rosenberg/more-evidence-of-an-obama_b_106777.html

Seriously?!?!? The ARMY is spreading negative propeganda about Obama?!?!?!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 11:30:30 EDT

Outrageous:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/inteldump/2008/06/army_shows_its_colors.html

Obama outpaces Clinton on Superdelegate Endorsements (almost 3-1)

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 21 May 2008 14:32:48 EDT

We see the coverage in the MSM and online media every day about a superdelegate or two or three or four who have endorsed Barack Obama, and usually on the same day news about Clinton picking up one or two. Well, looking at those not in isolation but en masse gives a remarkable picture of the momentum in this campaign. That's completely lost in the MSM coverage, but it's starting to add up to "real numbers" now. With thanks (and apologies!) to Presten Harden, who circulated this to one of the NC groups to which I subscribe.

Since the April 22, 2008 Pennsylvania primary

Barack Obama
1. David Wu OR Representative 24 Apr 2008
2. Charlene Fernandez AZ DNC State Vice Chair 26 Apr 2008
3. Audra Ostergard NE DNC State Vice Chair 23 Apr 2008
4. Brad Henry OK Governor 23 Apr 2008
5. Jeff Bingaman NM Senator 28 Apr 2008
6. Richard Machacek IA DNC 29 Apr 2008
7. Ben Chandler KY Representative 29 Apr 2008
8. Lois Capps CA Representative 30 Apr 2008
9. Bruce Braley IA Representative 30 Apr 2008
10. Baron Hill IN Representative 30 Apr 2008
11. Joe Andrew IN Former DNC Chairman 01 May 2008
12. John Patrick Vice President of the Texas AFL/CIO 01 May 2008
13. Paul G. Kirk, Jr. MA Former DNC Chairman 02 May 2008
14. Brian Colon NM DNC State Chair 03 May 2008
15. Parris Glendeni ng MD Former Governor 03 May 2008
16. Jaime Paulino GU DNC Territory Vice Chair Obama 03 May 2008
17. Inez Tenenbaum SC Former State Superintendent of Education May 2008
18. Michael Cryor MD DNC State Chair 05 May 2008
19. Lauren Glover MD DNC State Vice Chair 05 May 2008
20. Kalyn Free OK DNC 05 May 2008

Since the May 06, 2008 Indiana and North Carolina primary

21. Inola Henry CA DNC 07 May 2008
22. Jerry Meek NC DNC State Chair 07 May 2008
23. Jennifer McClellan VA DNC State Vice Chair 07 May 2008
24. Brad Miller NC Representative 08 May 2008
25. Rick Larsen WA Representative 08 May 2008
26. John Gage MD DNC 09 May 2008
27. Donald Payne NJ Representative Switched from Clinton 09 May 2008
28. Peter DeFazio OR Representative 09 May 2008
29. Vernon Watkins CA DNC 09 May 2008
30. Edward Espinoza CA DNC 09 May 2008
31. Mazie Hirono HI Representative 09 May 2008
32. Wilbur Lee Jeffcoat SC DNC State V ice Chair 09 May 2008
33. Laurie Weahkee NM 09 May 2008
34. Kristi Cumming UT 09 May 2008
35. Russ Carnahan MO Representative 10 May 2007
36. William Lacy Clay, Jr. MO Representative 10 May 2007
37. David Regan OH Labor Leader Obama 10 May 2008
38. Kevin Rodriguez VI DNC Previously supported Clinton 10 May 2008
39. Carole Burke VI DNC Previously supported Clinton 10 May 2008
40. Crystal Strait CA DNC Young Dems of America 11 May 2008
41. Tom Allen ME Representative 12 May 2008
43. Keith Roark ID DNC State Chair 12 May 2008
44. Daniel Akaka HI Senator 12 May 2008
45. Dr. Marie Dolly Strazar HI DNC 12 May 2008
46. Joe Donnelly IN Representative 13 May 2008
47. C. Ray Nagin LA mayor of New Orleans 13 May 2008
48. Roy Romer CO former Colorado governor 13 May 2008
49. Jack Johnson MD Prince George's County Executive (Previously supported Clinton) 13 May 2008
50. Pete Visclosky IN Representative 14 May 2008
51. Christine Schon Marques Democrats Abroad DNC 14 May 2008
52. Awais Khaleel WI DNC 14 May 2008
53. Lauren Wolfe MI president of the College Democrats of America 14 May 2008
54. Lena Taylor WI DNC State Vice Chair 14 May 2008
55. Mike Morgan OK Oklahoma Senate President Pro Tempore 14 May 2008
56. John Edwards NC former Senator 14 May 2008.
57. Jim McDermott WA Representative 15 May 2008
58. Henry Waxman CA Representative 15 May 2008
59. Howard Berman CA Representative 15 May 2008
60. Pete Stark CA Representative 16 May 2008
61. Mark Parkinson KS Lt. Governor 17 May 2008
62. Gregory Pecoraro MD DNC 17 May 2008
63. Federico Pea CO Former Denver mayor and Clinton admin. 17 May 2008
64. William Quay Hays CA DNC 18 May 2008
65. Lou Paulson CA DNC 18 May 2008
66. Dwight Pelz WA DNC State Chair 18 May 2008
67. Robert Byrd WV Senator Former Senate Majority Leader- DPL 19 May 2008
68. Larry Gates KS DNC State Chair 19 May 2008
69. Blake Johnson A K DNC State Vice Chair 19 May 2008
70. Cindy Spanyers AK DNC 19 May 2008
71. Madeleine Bordallo Guam DNC 20 May 2008
72. Eric Coleman MI DNC 20 May 2008
73. Scott Brennan IA DNC Iowa Chairman 20 May 2008

Since the May 20, 2008 Kentucky and Oregon primary

74. Joe Courtney CT Representative 21 May 2008

_____________

Since the April 22, 2008 Pennsylvania primary

Hillary Clinton
1. John Tanner TN Representative 23 Apr 2008
2. Kathy Sullivan NH 26 Apr 2008
3. Mike Easley NC Governor 28 Apr 2008
4. Ike Skelton MO Representative 29 Apr 2008
5. William George PA DNC 30 Apr 2008
6. Luisette Cabanas PR DNC 30 Apr 2008
7. John Olsen Connecticut AFL-CIO 01 May 2008
8. Carmen E. Arroyo NY 01 May 2008
9. Andrew Cuomo NY 01 May 2008
10. Thomas DiNapoli NY 01 May 2008
11. C. Virginia Fields NY 01 May 2008
12. John Olsen CT DNC 01 May 2008
13. Jaime Gonzalez Jr. TX DNC 02 May 2008
14. Kennedy Townsend MD Former Lt. Governor 03 May 2008
15. Theresa Morelli Democrats Abroad DNC 05 May 2008

Since the May 06, 2008 Indiana and North Carolina primary

16. Heath Shuler NC Representative 07 May 2008
17. Brad Ellsworth IN Representative 07 May 2008
18. Chris Carney PA Representative 09 May 2008
19. Ciro Rodriguez TX Representative 09 May 2008
20. Arthur Powell MA 10 May 2008
21. Vicki Harwell TN Add-on State Federation for Democratic Women President 13 May 2008
22. Keith Umemoto CA DNC 16 May 2008
23. Carolyn Doggett CA DNC 18 May 2008
24 Dario Frommer CA DNC 18 May 2008
25. Dora Rubio CA 18 May 2008
26. Martha Coakley MA State Attorney General 20 May 2008

Since the May 20, 2008 Kentucky a nd Oregon primary

27. William Craig Bashein OH 21 May 2008

Too bad for the media that they aren't covering what's really going on: The Obama Revolution

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 21 May 2008 11:39:45 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-gizbert/the-ho-hum-obama-revoluti_b_102459.html

Richard Gizbert absolutely NAILS it in his observation of the revolution that's happening in American politics and the media's "ho-hum" response to it. Anyone who has been to an Obama event, or seen the dozens of emails that immediately flurry around asking for tickets when the event "sells out" in less than an hour, or who's been in line for an event in the rain with people who don't seem to care, or felt the energy in the room, anyone who is paying attention can feel that this year, "Change" is not just a motto, it's happening. And it's awesome, in the real meaning of that word-- it inspires awe.

Does Obama need Appalachia?

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 21 May 2008 11:16:29 EDT

Marc Ambinder, in a piece appearing on the Atlantic dot com, suggests maybe not. This is something I suspect is accurate. People keep pointing to the parse-and-plunder politics of the past as a reference for this year's election. Maybe I'll be deeply disappointed if that turns out to be an accurate assessment. But my sense is that Obama's talk of change is not empty rhetoric, and certainly not just about the way things are done in Washington, but also about WHO is getting involved and paying attention and engaging and buying into the fact that We, the People, own and manage this great nation. An interesting read to be sure

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/does_obama_need_working_class.php

Obama doesn't have a "white working class" problem - Analysis of the results from Oregon

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 21 May 2008 10:35:01 EDT

Very intersting post-primary analysis of the numbers in Oregon, confirming what we've known all along-- that Obama's "white working class problem" is a media-manufactured non-issue.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/20/does-oregon-put-obamas-wh_n_102792.html

Chuck Hagel's criticism of his party and its leaders

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 21 May 2008 10:32:37 EDT

An interesting read:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/20/chuck-hagel-takes-on-mcca_n_102775.html

Friends in low places: McCain's team of lobbyists

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 12:27:38 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/16/mccains-lobbyist-scandals_n_102037.html

McCain's biography according to Vets

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 09:27:03 EDT

http://www.vetvoice.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=868

The McCain record

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 09:23:12 EDT

This is a great resource:

http://www.aflcio.org/issues/politics/mccain.cfm

Watching the party come together.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 09:07:37 EDT

Interesting read first posted on the Rapid Response list. Encouraging to know that the party higer-ups are working together in such a concerted way to bring unity in advance of November.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24687292

By Matthew Mosk and Chris Cillizza

updated 12:25 a.m. CT, Sun., May. 18, 2008

Top fundraisers for Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have begun private talks aimed at merging the two candidates' teams, not waiting for the Democratic nominating process to end before they start preparations for a hard-fought fall campaign.

Despite Obama's apparently insurmountable lead in delegates needed to claim the nomination, aides to both candidates are resigned to the idea that the Democratic contest will continue at least through June 3, when Montana and South Dakota will cast the final votes of the primary season.

But in small gatherings around Washington and in planning sessions for party unity events in New York and Boston in coming weeks, fundraisers and surrogates from both camps are discussing how they can put aside the vitriol of the past 18 months and move forward to ensure that the eventual nominee has the resources to defeat Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in November.

Mark Aronchick, a Philadelphia lawyer who has raised more than $1 million for Clinton's bid, said that while her supporters have not given up on their candidate, they recognize the need to start preparing for the general election.

"Only if we do this right, and see this through in the right way, will there be a chance for a full, rapid and largely complete unification of the party," Aronchick said.

Aronchick was one of about 35 Clinton and Obama insiders who attended a dinner last week in Washington aimed at what he characterized as helping the two sides "grope towards unity."

The gathering, held at the Ritz-Carlton residence of Jim Johnson and Maxine Isaacs, was a fundraiser for the Democratic National Committee at which former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin was honored. But the guests were well aware of the symbolism as they sipped cocktails and admired the views of the Potomac River and the Washington Monument. The event honoring a prominent Clinton supporter was held at the home of an Obama backer and co-hosted by another, former senator Thomas A. Daschle (S.D.).

"The people there had all picked sides," one attendee said. "There was a sense that there is an obligation to lead by example."

While there was little outright talk of how the primary campaign would end, guests confirmed that DNC Chairman Howard Dean set the tone with a speech in which he emphasized that despite the protracted nomination fight, he is already instituting a plan to combat McCain.

The message was clear, according to one attendee, who said, "You don't go anywhere anymore where there isn't a sense that this is over and this is about how people behave over the next month."

Even with the work in top levels of the party to broker a detente between Obama and Clinton donors, both sides acknowledge there is much still to be done.

Top fundraisers have invested not only their time and money but also their emotions in the primary battle. Major financial backers say the tensions have been particularly acute in recent weeks as frustrations have mounted in both camps.

Aronchick said that in his own discussions, he emphasized the need for the senator from Illinois to stop describing Clinton and her backers as representing the politics of the past.

"They need to understand how corrosive that has been among her supporters," Aronchick said. "For this to work, they need to correct any impression that he thinks we represent the old ways of doing things or Washington Beltway ways of doing things."

One top fundraiser for Obama, a veteran of several presidential campaigns who spoke about the private discussions on the condition of anonymity, said there are sensitivities among many of Obama's supporters, as well. The fundraiser said there is a high level of resentment that Clinton has continued to campaign, even though her chances of securing the nomination are remote. Many are unhappy about the idea of having to make room for members of Clinton's finance team, who had "picked the wrong candidate."

"There are people who are thinking, 'Hey, my guy won. Now I have to share the trophy?' " the Obama fundraiser said. "That's something we have to overcome."

Kirk Dornbush, a member of the Obama national finance team in Georgia, said that while there is no formal effort by the Obama campaign to recruit Clinton counterparts, "many of us have friendships with Clinton donors that predate the 2008 campaign and will last long after this race is over. Given this reality, it should not be surprising that we have received phone calls in the last few weeks" from individuals interested in crossing over.

Another major Obama fundraiser, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that while no organized recruitment campaign was underway, "we have picked off some local people and are reaching out to the Clinton people we know individually."

That outreach has been complicated by leading voices in the Clinton campaign having made clear that any defection at this point would be regarded as a betrayal of the former first couple. "Some [Clinton] people have said, 'If you publicly defect, that's the end of our relationship,' " said the Obama fundraiser. "Like, if we live to be 170, we're never going to speak to each other again."

Clinton supporters interviewed for this article all said they think that the senator from New York remains a viable candidate. But several also said they see the wisdom of beginning the conversation about fundraising for the general election.

"We're all thinking about November," said Robert Zimmerman, a New York public relations expert who is a top Clinton fundraiser. "We are starting a dialogue together. I've made it clear [Obama backers] will be welcome to come on board. They've said the same to me."

Zimmerman, who is also a Democratic National Committeeman, said Dean has been a central figure in starting to bring the two camps together. Dean is organizing a May 31 fundraiser in Manhattan honoring Al Gore. The event is being chaired by Orin Kramer, one of Obama's top fundraisers, and by Maureen White, a longtime party fundraiser who has been assisting Clinton.

Last week, the Democratic National Committee announced that both campaigns had signed a "joint fundraising agreement" creating a fund in which donations to each candidate could be pooled with contributions to the party and then used during the general election.

Clinton's New England finance chairman, Steve Grossman, is also co-chairing an event with two top New England fundraisers for Obama, Alan Solomont and Barry White. The June 12 event in Boston is in honor of Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry's brother, Cameron Kerry, and will raise money for the National Jewish Democratic Council, but the invitation list includes top bundlers for both Clinton and Obama.

In addition to the fledgling attempts to merge the fundraising operations of Obama and Clinton, there is growing talk that the best -- and perhaps only -- way to truly mend the rift is for Obama to pick a top Clinton surrogate as his vice presidential nominee.

"There's gale-force pressure for Obama to choose a Clinton loyalist as a running mate to heal the party but avoid putting her and her formidable baggage on the ticket," said one Obama ally in Washington. "You hear the names [Ohio Gov. Ted] Strickland, [Indiana Sen. Evan] Bayh, and [retired general] Wes Clark almost constantly, and it's no secret that Jim Johnson and Tom Daschle are purveyors of that wisdom."

OK, taking a break from the serious. This is wicked, but really funny.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:54:02 EDT

http://www.236.com/news/2008/05/14/if_they_imd_michelle_obama_and_6493.php

Clinton takes a more positive tone

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:38:55 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/17/you-dont-quit-until-you-f_n_102279.html

I wish she could have taken the high road throughout the primary. I cna't help but think it would've been better for Obama, for the party, and even for herself.

John McSame: Flip Flopper in Chief?

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:36:02 EDT

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/05/mccain-cant-k-1.html

Great site for analysis of delegate count and current tally

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:33:53 EDT

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/04/obama-now-leads.html

If not Hillary, Who will be the first woman president

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 18 May 2008 08:12:37 EDT

This is a very interesting read pondering what qualities the first woman president will have. I think that it takes too pessimistic a tone, and discounts the significant post-gender and post-race attitude of the voters that are moving into the gap that will be left by the boomers. It also engages in some mild Obama-bashing (repeating as if its truth that he has no experience and failing to counter the assertion by a Clintonista that "no woman with Obama's resume could run" -- what man with Hillary's resume could? But on balance I find it a great read, and it brought several well-qualified candidates to my attneton that I'd not heard about previously.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/18/weekinreview/18zernike.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Obama is a force in the South!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 17 May 2008 21:21:52 EDT

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/politics/16south.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin

Clinton win led to Edwards endorsement

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 15 May 2008 17:22:40 EDT

Interesting anlysis:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/15/dems.wrap/index.html?eref=rss_politics&iref=polticker

Obama picks up Edwards delegates

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 15 May 2008 17:20:01 EDT

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/15/edwards-delegates-in-south-carolina-move-to-obama/

Cross-over Republicans: Obama's expanding base

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 15 May 2008 17:15:55 EDT

Very interesting article from The nation, and totally consistent with what I've seen on the ground here in NC. I've talked to dozens of folks who are life-long Republicans who feel as though the party has left them, and are inspired by barack's message of unity and change in Washington.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080602/nichols

More Super-D endorsements for Barack!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 15 May 2008 16:52:51 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/15/obama-superdelegates-waxm_n_101939.html

Not looking good for the GOP this fall: they could lose 20 seats in Congress

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 15 May 2008 16:04:41 EDT

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10366.html

United Steel Workers endorse Barack

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 15 May 2008 15:59:29 EDT

Nice!

http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2008/05/12/daily33.html?f=et74&ana=e_du

Can Obama change the electoral map? (Yes He Can!!)

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 12 May 2008 21:52:07 EDT

This is a fascinating read, and confirms what I've been feeling out there in the ether. We could be on the verge of something huge.

http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top

by Josh Kalven on May 11, 2008

During an April 25 conference call to unveil the Obama campaign's 50-state voter registration drive, deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand sounded genuinely exasperated as he tried to steer reporters to the topic at hand.

Despite his best efforts, those on the call didn’t request any further details about the effort. No one posed questions about the drive's goals or how the campaign thinks it could affect Obama’s general election prospects. Instead, they brought up the latest distractions: What does the campaign make of Jeremiah Wright’s new comments? Are advisers worried that Obama has a problem attracting working-class white voters? And so on.

The media’s lack of interest is hardly surprising. While voter registration drives are invaluable, they’re also dry and tedious – not that exciting to participate in or to write about.

But some new data indicates that, come November 5, we may find ourselves looking back at this year’s intensive voter mobilization efforts as what put Obama – and down-ballot Democrats nationwide – over the top.

The Poblano Model

This new data was generated by the anonymous 30-year-old author of the website FiveThirtyEight.com. A statistician and analyst, “Poblano” (who asked that his real name be kept private for professional reasons) has developed a sophisticated regression model that uses state-by-state polling data to assess possible general election outcomes in individual states.

“We weight the average based on the reliability of the pollster,” Poblano told me. “The polls that have a better track record are obviously going to be emphasized more heavily. We look at sample size. We look at how recent the poll was. We also skew various demographic factors as well.”

In the Frequently Asked Questions section of his site, Poblano lists the demographic variables that his model takes into account in each state. Included are John Kerry’s 2004 performance, the candidates’ respective fundraising efforts, and other factors such as income, race, religion, age, and education level.

Using the resulting baseline averages, Poblano runs simulations – 10,000 at a time – to determine the probability of either Obama or Hillary Clinton beating John McCain in the fall.

“The simulation takes the polls we have now and recognizes that this far out from the election there are a lot of uncertainties,” Poblano explained. “There was a point in time [in 1984] at which Walter Mondale led Ronald Reagan by 17 points or something. So we look at how much polls move over time, plus the margin of error in each poll, plus the fact that polls are never as good as they claim to be … And we just simulate around that.”

Poblano’s simulation engine has produced some fascinating results. According to his current data, the model predicts that Clinton would win four states against McCain that Obama is favored to lose (FL, AR, WV, OH). Meanwhile, Obama wins eight states where Clinton would likely fail (MI, WI, IA, CO, NM, NV, WA, OR).

Using his simulation engine, Poblano went way against the grain last Monday, predicting that Obama would win the North Carolina primary by 17 points (most expected him to win by a single-digit margin). The following day, Obama took the state by 14.

Poblano’s Indiana projection was even more spot on. He predicted a 51-49 Clinton victory. And sure enough, that’s what happened.

Later in the week, pollster Mark Blumenthal devoted his National Journal column to the “Poblano Model,” noting that it had outperformed five major national polling operations in predicting the results of Tuesday’s primaries.

Increasing African-American Turnout

Recently, Progress Illinois and the SEIU Illinois Council (which sponsors us) asked Poblano to examine how incremental increases in turnout among certain demographic groups would affect the outcome of an Obama-McCain contest. What he found underscores the importance of voter mobilization this year. (You can find Poblano’s own analysis here.)

Take the African-American vote, for example. With each 10 percent increase in black turnout nationwide, Obama gains an average of 13 electoral votes, while his chance of winning jumps by about eight points:

Poblano generated these projections by taking his current McCain-vs.-Obama polling averages and creating a baseline prediction assuming 2004 levels of turnout, which now gives Obama a 49.5 percent chance of winning.

He then added more African-American voters to the model in 10 percent increments, having them break 94 percent for Obama and 6 percent for McCain (which reflects average head-to-head polling). Finally, he ran simulations at each threshold, which produced corresponding win percentages and electoral vote splits.

Examining the full results, you can see a handful of states turn from red to purple – or from purple to blue – as African-American turnout increases.

The Rust Belt states are the first to catch your eye. According to the baseline, if 2008 turnout levels mirror those in 2004, McCain is predicted to win Ohio by 1.6 percent. But when you increase African-American voters by 20 percent, the state tips towards Obama, giving him a 0.3 percent margin of victory. Push that up to 30 and 40 percent and his edge increases to 1.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Pennsylvania, a 30 percent increase in black turnout would increase Obama’s predicted margin of victory from 1.3 to 3.4 percent, and in Michigan from 1.3 to 4.4 percent.

Other states where Obama stands to benefit the most from increased African-American turnout are North Carolina and Virginia. Poblano’s baseline predicts a 6.6 percent margin of victory for McCain in North Carolina. But if you hike black turnout by 30 percent, that margin shrinks to just 0.9 percent. And when you reach a 40 percent increase, Obama takes the state.

Virginia follows much the same trend. A 30 percent increase in turnout slices McCain’s margin of victory from 4.5 to 0.5 percent. And once again, at the 40 percent level, Obama wins. (To see the estimate number of unregistered African-Americans in these states, click here.)

Poblano also points to South Carolina, Florida, and Georgia as states that could suddenly be in play with a significant increase in black turnout: “There are scenarios where you could really have – not a landslide – but Obama winning 350-plus electoral votes … just with a mild increase in African-American turnout.”

The Latino And Youth Votes

Just as he did with African-Americans, Poblano used his regression model and simulation engine to examine how increases in turnout among two other crucial demographics -- 18-24 year-olds and Latino voters -- would affect Obama’s electoral prospects.

While under 50 percent of both these groups voted in 2004, their participation is expected to improve significantly this year. Young voters are more enthusiastic than ever. Meanwhile, efforts to mobilize the Latino population have so far proved very successful this primary season.

Poblano found that increasing the youth vote by 25 percent would give Obama 16 additional electoral votes and boost his chance of beating McCain by nearly 7 percent (assuming that this group breaks 70-30 towards Obama):

While 18-24 year-olds are spread rather evenly across all 50 states, Poblano points to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota as states with traditions of high youth turnout. His baseline currently has them all in Obama’s column. But if young voters flock to the polls come November – as they’re expected to – these three states could end up far out of McCain’s reach.

Compared to African-Americans and 18-24 year-olds, the Latino vote doesn’t break as heavily towards Obama. Poblano’s baseline assumes a 60-40 split in Obama’s favor and each 25 percent increase in turnout boosts his chances of beating McCain by a little under 3 percentage points:

Nonetheless, when it comes to certain Southwestern states, boosting Latino turnout is going to be crucial for the Obama campaign. Take New Mexico, for example. While Poblano’s baseline has Obama winning by 1.2 percent there, a 40 percent increase in the Latino vote would increase that margin to 4.9 percent. Similar turnout levels in Colorado would push his margin from 1.3 up to 2.4 percent. In Nevada, meanwhile, it would climb from 2.0 to 3.1 percent.

The Full Monty

Of course, to really understand the ramifications of Obama’s 50-state registration drive and the unprecedented excitement surrounding his campaign, you have to look at how increased turnout across all three of these groups could tilt the electoral map in his favor.

So Poblano devised several possible scenarios. The first, titled the “40/20 Plan,” increases the youth vote by 40 percent and the African-American vote by 20 percent, while keeping the Latino vote at the 2004 level. The “40/30/20 Plan” projects a 40 percent increase among 18-24 year-olds, a 30 percent increase among Latinos, and a 20 percent in increase in the black vote. Finally comes the “Best Case Scenario,” which assumes a 40 percent increase among African-Americans and a 50 percent increase in both the youth and Latino vote nationally.

The “40/20 Plan” alone increases Obama’s chances of winning from 49.5 percent to 68.3 percent. The “40/30/20 Plan,” meanwhile, lifts this probability over 70 percent:

These projections illustrate the extraordinary level of flexibility enjoyed by the Obama campaign as they head towards the general election. Rather than focusing on simply winning Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, they have a big enough war chest and a broad enough base of support to create all sorts of contingencies in case one of those typical battleground states goes for McCain.

“If Obama wins the traditional big three, he’s going to have a tough time losing anyway,” Poblano said. “But now you give him a margin for error where if something goes wrong in Ohio – if you’re winning North Carolina and Iowa and Colorado, it’s a very robust scenario for him with a lot of Plan A's, Plan B's, and Plan C's to win the election.”

While the media has often focused on Obama’s star power, his success is largely the result of a campaign team that, through thick and thin, keeps its eye on the big picture. In late 2007, the Clinton camp believed that a slew of primary victories on February 5 were all they needed to cinch the nomination. By contrast, Obama’s advisers focused on the half of the country that wasn’t voting that day. In the end, it was their intensive organizing in states like Idaho, Kansas, and Colorado that brought Obama to the threshold of the nomination.

With the launch of “Vote For Change" in 50 states yesterday, it’s clear that the Obama campaign still has the big picture in mind. And if Poblano’s projections are accurate, it’s going to be quite an adventure.

ADDENDA

For those interested in the raw, state-to-state numbers, you can download Poblano's Excel spreadsheet here. To experiment with different scenarios, just change the turnout numbers in the yellow section at the top of the page. To recalculate, hit F9 on a PC, or Command + = on a Mac.

For more information on the estimated number of unregistered African-American, Latino, and 18-24 year-old voters in the states mentioned in this article, check out this spreadsheet, or download it here.

Finally, be sure to check out this Q&A posted by Poblano on his methodology.

NC was Clinton's Waterloo

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 12 May 2008 21:46:48 EDT

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1068511.html

Analysis from our excellent local political reporter, Rob Christensen.

Rob Christensen, Staff Writer

There has been a lot of history in that old basketball barn, Reynolds Coliseum -- the Dixie Classic, Everett Case and David Thompson. We can now add Sen. Barack Obama's victory speech Tuesday night -- which had the look and feel of a convention nomination acceptance speech.

Obama did not actually break out the champagne -- although he did have a Pabst Blue Ribbon at The Raleigh Times (the downtown restaurant, not the defunct afternoon newspaper).

Nor did Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton concede after last week's primary.

But after North Carolina, she was, as the New York Post headline succinctly put it, "TOAST."

Clinton did not need to win North Carolina, but she needed to do better than the 14 points by which she lost. She barely won Indiana, a state she needed to win.

North Carolina Democrats -- and independents who voted in the primary -- determined there were would be no Clinton Restoration. There would be no Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton rotation.

We may have also seen the last hurrah of former President Clinton.

Bill Clinton worked North Carolina as if it was his first race for governor of Arkansas.

In town after town, he would mount the stage of a school or community center or a flat bed truck to talk about his wife's run for the White House. He visited at least 58 towns and cities -- some more than once.

On Monday alone, the only two-term Democratic president in my lifetime made nine speeches, starting in Elizabeth City at 7:30 a.m. and finishing in Raleigh at 11:30 p.m. before flying to Charlotte. It was, Clinton said, the most speeches he had ever made in day.

Hillary Clinton fretted about what all the barbecue might be doing to his arteries.

"Bill Clinton was practically running for mayor of small-town North Carolina," said Craig Schirmer, who was Obama's state director.

The Clintons laid it on the line in North Carolina and Indiana. We now know that Hillary Clinton was financing much of her operations out of her own pocketbook, having lent her campaign $6.4 million.

While the Clintons were making one last major effort, the well-financed Obama campaign sought -- and delivered -- a crushing blow.

Not since the landmark 1984 Senate race between Republican Jesse Helms and Democrat Jim Hunt has North Carolina seen such a powerful operation as Obama put on the ground.

For a month, Obama became the Wal-Mart of Tar Heel politics -- blanketing the state with 81 offices, 300 paid staffers and 15,300 volunteers. Clinton had 20 offices and 50 paid staffers. Obama dominated the airwaves.

The Obama turnouts in North Carolina and Indiana were the highest of any primary or caucus in the nation, according to Schirmer.

Schirmer called the get-out-the- vote effort "the most unprecedented and historical effort the state has ever seen."

A week before the election, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns thought the race was in single digits, which is why both candidates redoubled their efforts here.

But in the end, the Obama turnout -- especially from the early voting and especially among African-Americans -- was too much for Clinton to overcome.

"If you are starting a race 25 points down, you need to have a perfect game and an opponent who commits a lot of turnovers," said Ace Smith, Clinton's state director. "They ran a solid campaign. They didn't commit many turnovers."

rob.christensen@newsobserver.com or (919) 829-4532

The NC Democratic Surge-- Yes We Can!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 09 May 2008 10:20:06 EDT

This is from NC Democratic party chair Jerry Meek. It's looking good for the fall! If we work hard, with Obama at the head of the ticket, NC can be blue in November!

The Democratic Surge

North Carolina saw a record-breaking turnout with nearly 1.6 million voters coming out for Democrats.

In more than 30 counties, turnout exceeded 40 percent of registered Democrats. Early and absentee votes accounted for 500,000 of those votes, which was more than six times the number of early and absentee voting in 2006 and more than half the total votes in the primary in 2004.

More than a half-million voters have participated in early voting. More than 80 percent of them chose to participate in the Democratic rather than Republican primary. Forty-percent of the early voters were African-American.

These numbers reflect a national trend in which 35 million people came out this election season to support our Democratic candidates, and an estimated 3.5 new voters were added to the national voter rolls.

Republican turnout, in contrast, has either stayed relatively stagnated or decreased since 2000, the last contested GOP primary. Sinking turnout throughout the country for Republicans shows the contrast between Democrats and Republicans this primary season.

This record turnout during the primaries has been transformational for the Democratic Party as record numbers of new voters are being registered and our candidates are campaigning in all 50 states, running a truly national campaign.

"Democrats are energized all across the country and we're competing in all 50 states, proving that if Democrats show up and talk about our values, we will win," said Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. "As we head towards November, I'm confident we will unite behind our nominee and harness this unprecedented enthusiasm to beat John McCain."

Record-Breaking Jefferson-Jackson Dinner

"It is amazing that just three weeks ago, we were planning for a 500- person dinner in a hotel ballroom and we ended up selling 5,000 tickets in an arena," said NCDP Chairman Jerry Meek. "This is a great show of strength for our party and it bodes well for our chances this fall."

The Party was able to raise more than $250,000 dollars through the sale of 5,000 tickets.

The vast majority of ticket sales came from North Carolinians who paid $25 to come and see the candidates.

"This was more than a fundraiser," Meek said. "This was about building the future of the North Carolina Democratic Party. We strengthened local and state grassroots efforts, as well as saw a large number of new donors and new Democrats sign up for tickets."

Party officials and both presidential candidates cited high early voting numbers and swelling party registration figures to demonstrate the growing number of North Carolina voters who are voting Democratic or switching their registration to vote in the recent Democratic primary.

John McCain - More Mockingbird than Maverick

John McCain claims he's a moderate maverick who bucks the Republican Party line whenever possible, but his record tells a different story. Apparently when it comes to his own record McCain hasn't been giving the voters straight talk.

In the same week that we found out McCain has never voted against a Republican judicial nominee during his entire time in the Senate, the Arizona Republic reported that he rarely bucks his Party on close votes.

The presumptive Republican nominee arguably cast the decisive vote 14 times since 1999 to ensure Republicans got their way, and he had five other close cases where his vote may have made a difference, Senate records show.

Yet at the same time, McCain is having trouble rallying the Republican base around him. In our recent primary, with 54 percent of the precincts reporting, McCain had 73.8 percent of the vote, Huckabee 12.1 percent, Mr. Paul 7.7 percent, and others 6.3 percent.

His campaign claims McCain will win over Democrats in November. But exit polls revealed McCain lost a quarter of his own Party in Indiana and North Carolina this week and more than half of Republicans in his own state.

How will McCain attract Democrats when he can't even keep his own base from fracturing?

Democrats are Gaining among Young People and Independents

More than 5 million young voters nationwide have participated in this election season.

Turnout for voters ages 18 to 29 has increased dramatically, tripling or quadrupling in many states, during this primary season.

According to a Pew study released month, 58 percent of voters under 30 now self-identify as Democrats or leaning

Democratic, while only 33 percent associate with Republicans. The gap is even greater for young female voters - 63 to 28 percent.

Among unaffiliated voters in North Carolina, 19 percent self-identify as Democrats

NC's military communities vote for Barack

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 07 May 2008 17:50:04 EDT

I thought this post from a reader on Talking Points Memo was VERY interesting:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/military-counties-in-nc-vote-o.php

Defying the conventional wisdom about Obama demographics: Gastonia, NC

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:56:44 EDT

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/gastonia-nc-shows-the-conventi.php

On the significance of NC: Game, Set, Match.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:37:06 EDT

Bob Creamer in the Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/game-set-matchnorth-carol_b_100564.html

Yes We DID!!!!!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:24:44 EDT

I'm so proud to be a North Carolinian today! To work so hard, including reporting for poll monitoring yesterday at 6am, and working until the polls closed, then watching the returns last night and realizing, hey, North Carolina-- did you realize what just happened? Do you see what we just did? We just gave the nomination to Barack Obama!!!!

Yes We Did!!!

Yes He Can!!!!!

What an incredible victory for integrity, hope, and character! The margin is stunning:

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1063890.html

Now, then. Let's catch our breath and it's on to West Virginia!

Collection of voter fraud documentation and resources

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 02 May 2008 09:46:17 EDT

Thanks to Cynthia Turner-Graham for pulling these together and posting to the Rapid Response list.

I also recommend the book "Loser Take All" compiled by Mark Crispin Miller, which illustrates how mush harder we have to work than we even realize.

Given the forces at work to undermine Obamaâ€™s campaign, and the lengths to which the Clintonâ€™s seem willing to go to assure his defeat, I wonder what is being done to insure the integrity of voting in these upcoming elections? Should we be pressing for more vigilance?

I have compiled a group of articles that reflect voting irregularities, and even law suits in earlier primaries I had not heard about. Here is the list:

Expert recommends constant audits

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9916426-7.html

Ohio 2008 primary voting irregularities and litigation

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080318-ohio-seizes-voting-machines-in-criminal-investigation.html

Colorado governor decertifies voting machines vulnerable to tampering

http://www.thecherrycreeknews.com/content/view/2160/2/

SC Voting machines prompt calls for federal action

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/viewstory.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200801/POL20080122a.html

Deceptive phone call to NC voters

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080429/POLITICS01/80429017

Critique of electronic voting post-New Hampshire

http://www.dmiblog.com/archives/2008/01/beyond_new_hampshire_does_ever.html

Voter irregularities in Florida primaries

http://blog.wired.com/27bstroke6/2008/04/florida-electio.html

NYT - Can we count on voting machines (Jan 2008)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/06/magazine/06Vote-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&oref=slogin

Disenfranchised voters: service men and women abroad

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080427/ap_on_el_pr/military_voting

NC's money is behind Barack

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:58:42 EDT

This report from the (Raleigh) News and Observer:

http://www.newsobserver.com/948/story/1047916.html

A news organization with integrity-- Local station refuses to air NC Republican party's attack ad

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:48:16 EDT

Kudos to Raleigh NC's WRAL, which today announced boldly-- and rightly-- that it would not air the ad from the Republican Party of NC attacking two Democratic candidates for governor by attacking Barack Obama. This is the station, interestingly enough, at which our notorious former Senator Jesse Helms got his start as a conservative commentator.

Way to protect democracy, WRAL! Well done!

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1048412.html

90,000 people have voted early so far in NC

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:43:30 EDT

The (Raleigh) News & Observer reports that since early voting opened on the 17th, around 90,000 North Carolinians have cast their ballots. Early voting will run through may 3 in advance of the state's primary on May 6.

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/90_000_turn_out_to_vote

Hillary is BUSH!!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:07:56 EDT

Time for some humor -- Hillary is BUSH!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:01:36 EDT

Clinton is push-polling in NC (after promising to quit the practice after she got nailed for it in the midwest)

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 15:00:07 EDT

Daily Kos diary "Is Hillary Push Polling?" in NC:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/133728/667/829/502604

Clinton's crushing defeat in Pennsylvania

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:52:43 EDT

That's right. She lost:

See "The Field" blog by Al Giordano? http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1105
(Thanks to the cole fmaily for posting this on the Countdown Fans listserv.!!)

Clinton’s margin among all voters in Ohio (10.5 percent) diminished by the time she got to Pennsylvania.

The margin among registered Democrats (a 14 percent lead in Ohio) diminished by at least 39 percent in Pennsylvania.

Among white registered Democrats (70 percent of them in Ohio) - the demographic that the pastor-bashing and bitter-posturing was aimed at - Senator Clinton lost 24 percent (down to 53 percent in Pennsylvania).

Among African-American registered Democrats (14 percent of them in Ohio) she lost 42 percent of her previous support (down to 8 percent in Pennsylvania).

All the posturing and negativity didn’t gain her a single yard.

In fact, Senator Clinton lost ground in every one of those key foundations of her former base vote.

The New Clinton Inevitability

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:48:35 EDT

Mr. Loewe outlines the metrics of Hillary's crushing defeat in Pennsylvania last night.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-loewe/hillarys-new-inevitabilit_b_98145.html

NYT UN-endorses HRC

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:35:45 EDT

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html?ex=1209614400&en=2d46173b7adf720e&ei=5070

HRC Won the Battle, Lost the War

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 10:30:54 EDT

dead-on analysis from Robert Creamer on today's Huffington Post.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/last-night-clinton-won-th_b_98165.html

Voting machine problems in Pennsylvania already this morning

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 11:12:13 EDT

This was just posted on the Philly Inquirer's blog site:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/More_voting_machine_malfunctions.html Tuesday, April 22, 2008More voting machine malfunction

PA Primary Team reports:

We continue to hear reports of broken machines. This tale was reported to the Daily News by a very patient voter:

"I just came from voting. Finally got my vote in at 49 ward, 07 division....after waiting for (the only) 2 voting machines to be repaired.

"I was able to cast my vote for Obama after waiting 1 and 1/2 hours. During that time at least 100 voters left without voting.....possibly not to return.

"I immediately called every News channel I could get through to. Persons who answered at the stations informed me that my ward was not the only one with broken machines and 'Paper ballots (as an alternative) without Obama's name on it. These provisional ballots did have Hiliary's name on them."

Now, voting machines malfunction every election. The worry today is that a high turnout will compound those problems -- forcing voters to wait, as in the case above, or turn to provisional ballots (the paper ones) which will take much longer to count.

We'll keep an eye on this today.

Will PA's primary be fraught with fraud?

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:25:14 EDT

I ran across these disturbing articles this weekend. They question whether HRC actually won New Hampshire, Ohio and the Texas primary, and point to a statistically significant correlation between her victories and areas without hand-counted or paper-checked balloting. Places like... Pennsylvania.

http://www.rense.com/general80/didhil.htm

http://billnoxid.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/clinton-comeback-courtesy-of-diebold/

http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/20080110_clintons_diebold_bump/

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5553

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiaBqwqkXs

http://scienceblogs.com/developingintelligence/2008/01/the_diebold_effect_hillarys_vo.php

Did HRC really win New Hampshire?

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:24:06 EDT

http://www.rense.com/general80/didhil.htm

http://billnoxid.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/clinton-comeback-courtesy-of-diebold/

http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/20080110_clintons_diebold_bump/

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5553

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiaBqwqkXs

http://scienceblogs.com/developingintelligence/2008/01/the_diebold_effect_hillarys_vo.php

Voter Fraud in 2008?

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 10:22:04 EDT

http://www.rense.com/general80/didhil.htm

http://billnoxid.wordpress.com/2008/03/06/clinton-comeback-courtesy-of-diebold/

http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/20080110_clintons_diebold_bump/

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=5553

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiiaBqwqkXs

http://scienceblogs.com/developingintelligence/2008/01/the_diebold_effect_hillarys_vo.php

Frank Rich in today's NYT- the media, the "debate" and hope for America

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 12:29:17 EDT

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/20/opinion/20rich.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Why Women SHOULDN'T Vote for Hillary

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 20 Apr 2008 12:11:00 EDT

A very insightful article by Camille Paglia in The Telegraph, the subtitle is

Is Hillary Clinton the saviour of feminism? Or its albatross, dragging feminism backwards under a weary weight of old-guard victimology and male-bashing?

The conclusion is that she's the latter.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/19/wuspols219.xml

My favorite bits are in the middle of the piece:

"Whatever her official feminist credo, Hillary's public career has glaringly been a subset to her husband's success. Despite her reputation for brilliance, she failed the Washington, DC bar exam. Thus her migration to Little Rock was not simply a selfless drama for love; she was fleeing the capital where she had hoped to make her mark.

In Little Rock, every role that Hillary played was obtained via her husband's influence - from her position at the Rose Law Firm to her seat on the board of Wal-Mart to her advocacy for public education reform. In a pattern that would continue after Bill became president, Hillary would draw attention by expressing public "concern" for a problem, without ever being able to organise a programme for reform.

Hillary has always been a policy wonk, a functionary attuned to bureaucratic process, but she has never shown executive ability, which makes her quest for the presidency problematic. Hillary's disastrous botching of national healthcare reform in 1993 (a project to which her husband rashly appointed her) will live in infamy. Obama may also have limited executive experience, but he has no comparable stain on his record.

The argument, therefore, that Hillary's candidacy marks the zenith of modern feminism is specious. Feminism is not well served by her surrogates' constant tactic of attributing all opposition to her as a function of entrenched sexism. Well into her second term as a US Senator, Hillary lacks a single example of major legislative achievement. Her career has consisted of fundraising, meet-and-greets and speeches around the world expressing support for women's rights."

The Obamacan phenomenon: cross-over voters for Barack

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 09:33:11 EDT

This is a really interesting piece by Ari Berman in The Nation:

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15

PA's papers endorse Obama.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 09:28:18 EDT

This is great news!

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/obama_wins_vast_majority_of_pe.php

Obama Wins Vast Majority Of Pennsylvania Newspaper EndorsementsBy Greg Sargent - April 18, 2008, 5:30PM

I'd been meaning to do this for a few days now, and this is as good a time as any. Here's the rundown of which Pennsylvania newspapers have endorsed whom...

Papers endorsing Obama:

The Philadelphia Inquirer
Citizen's Voice
The Scranton Times-Tribune
The Allentown Morning Call
The Patriot News
Bucks County Courier
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Philadelphia Daily News

Papers endorsing Hillary:

The Daily Pennsylvanian

For what it's worth.

Enough is ENOUGH

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 09:25:34 EDT

Saw this posted on Talkingpointsmemo.com

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/i-just-watched-a-man-choke-bac.php

I just watched a man choke back tears because his son's going back to Iraq. It's time to end this.By Nate Biehl - April 18, 2008, 1:38PM

I just watched a co-worker of mine choke back tears.

His son is being stop-lossed. OUR GOVERNMENT is sending him back for a THIRD deployment in Iraq.

He literally went to his ETS processing and the paperwork wasn't signed. Instead of separating in June, he's now scheduled to re-deploy in September. He came home from Iraq last November.

This bullshit primary is the greatest gift we could have given that Lame Duck and his henchmen. While we're pixel-whacking about flag pins and middle fingers, people are fighting and dying because we STILL can't find the guts to say NO MORE!

We need to do everything we can to end this bullshit now.
Are your representatives undecided? GIVE THEM HELL. Don't use kid gloves. Tell them lives are at stake.

Know of any party Superdelegates in your area? Call them up. Tell them we can't wait another minute.

NO MORE.

Obama has a 19 point national lead; maintains wide margin in NC

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 09:21:50 EDT

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/poll_obama_pulling_away_from_c.php

The People's candidate - record crowds turn out for Obama

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 08:55:04 EDT

This is so exciting!

I get the feeling that this campaign really is a movement that cannot be stopped by the petty, political nonsense that has been politics as usual for so long.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/18/obama-greeted-by-largest-_n_97524.html

McSame will NOT work across the aisle

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 08:50:14 EDT

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/no_20080418_7762.php

It's time to turn the focus on McCain

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 19 Apr 2008 08:45:42 EDT

The Republicans are NOT going to run a respectful campaign. And of course, we never doubted that for a moment.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/18/harry-reid-mccain-crossed_n_97476.html

Legendary Duke Universirty Historian John Hope Franklin endorses Obama

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 15:31:08 EDT

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1038677.html

Two NC Superdelegates endorse Barack!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 15:27:40 EDT

U.S. Reps. David Price of Chapel Hill and Mel Watt of Charlotte, both superdelegates to the Democratic National Convention, said they are supporting <http://cl.exct.net/?ju=fe5c17717d6703797111&ls=fe0015797767067f77117171&m=fef111737c6c01&l=fec2157874630774&s=fe1c15797263017b721677&jb=ffcf14&t=>

NC Women Back OBAMA!!!! Clinton loses traction in key states as women support Barack

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:31:33 EDT

This was posted earlier in another group, and I thought it was great news:

New Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg polls in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana suggests Sen. Hillary Clinton "may not be headed to blockbuster victories she needs to jumpstart her presidential bid."

Pennsylvania: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%.

North Carolina: Obama 47%, Clinton 34%

Indiana, Obama 40%, Clinton 35%

Key finding: "One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/15/la_timesbloomberg_clinton_loses_traction_in_key_states.html

"Where are the democratic party's LEADERS?"

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:26:45 EDT

Miles Mogulescu nails it today on the Huffington Post. This is an opportunity for the Democrats to show true leadership and unite around principle even before the time has come to unite around a candidate. Now, don't get me wrong-- I think it's long past time to unite around a candidate, but agree with the notion that we can show unity as a party even while the primary rages on.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/miles-mogulescu/where-are-dem-leaders-whi_b_96687.html

Wise words: anger and hope often go hand in hand

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 17:22:50 EDT

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/04/obama-hope-and.html

"Here we go again..."

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 17:48:37 EDT

This is from Jane Smiley @ Huffington Post.

I agree with Jane!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jane-smiley/here-we-go-again_1_b_96374.html

Steelers owner endorses Obama

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:31:59 EDT

This is great news:

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/steelers/s_562310.html

Encouraging poll numbers from Gallup

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 15:17:17 EDT

Barack Obama maintains a 9-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton, 50% to 41%, in national Democratic voters' preferences for the nomination. Obama and Clinton edge out John McCain in the latest presidential election trial heats.
Read more at GALLUP.com.
--
Just 16% of Americans rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, tying the 2008 low. More than twice as many, 43%, say conditions are poor.
Read more at GALLUP.com.

Poll numbers from www.pollster.com

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 14:57:26 EDT

HRC & McSame think you're stupid. (But then again you already knew that...)

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 17:44:19 EDT

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/12/0271/98449/190/494090

On "elitism" : CNN slams Clinton & McCain for mis-stating Barack's words

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 17:25:59 EDT

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/11/235050/410/205/494075

"Take your elitism and..."

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 17:02:28 EDT

This was on the Daily Kos today. It's REALLY good stuff-- I love this guy. Amen!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/12/111833/793/977/494296

Stick Your Elitism Where the Sun Doesn't Shine by wmtriallawyer Sat Apr 12, 2008 at 08:38:26 AM PDT

Let me get this out of the way out front: by every measure, people are free to consider me part of the "elite." My wife and I make substantial income, live in a nice house, buying an even nicer one, drive nice cars, hold good jobs with pensions and health care paid for, are overeducated, hold positions of respect and power within our communities, etc., etc. Hell, we even live near Washington, D.C., home field for the elite.

But you damn sure better never call me an "elitist."

Elitism, as defined by the American Heritage Dictionary, is the following:

The belief that certain persons or members of certain classes or groups deserve favored treatment by virtue of their perceived superiority, as in intellect, social status, or financial resources.

That ain't me. And neither is it Barack Obama.

wmtriallawyer's diary :: ::

I don't have any perceived superiority. I don't believe in favored treatment just because of my status. I feel damn lucky to be where I am. I work hard, just like lots of Americans. But not nearly as hard as some. Not nearly as hard, for instance, as the South Asian guy who runs my local 7-11 where I pick up my morning coffee. He's there every stinkin' day, managing that place, early morning to late evening. I once saw him in the grocery store with his FIVE small boys. I've gained a ton of respect for that man.

And I'm sure if Barack Obama met him, he would have a ton of respect too. Because Obama worked with folks like him in his community organizing days, when he didn't have to. Because Obama was raised by a single mom, without any particular inherent advantage, and received top notch schooling to get ahead. Because Obama personifies the damn American dream...that given an equal shot, we all can get ahead.

And let's not kid ourselves. That's what the American Dream is. Not "work hard, and you'll get ahead." I know plenty of people that work their asses off -- friends of mine -- and they can't get ahead. No, the dream is to have an equal shot to get ahead, and you too can make it.

And that equal shot is not forthcoming. And damn right people are bitter about it.

You want elitism? Try being married to an heiress to a beer distribution fortune and being stuck in the most exclusive club on earth inside the beltway for the past twenty years. THAT'S elitism.

You want elitism? Try making $109 million over the past six years and running for President by virtue of the fact that your husband has already been President. THAT'S elitism.

You want elitism? Try being a pundit that been ensconsed inside the ultimate insider world of Washington politics, and then poo-pooing telling the truth about the mood in the countryside as being "condescending." THAT'S elitism.

I have a news flash for all these elites...
YOU ARE PROJECTING.

You are projecting the fact that you are elitist yourself, knowing full well YOU are the ones out of touch with America. I mean, do you seriously want us to believe that the American public isn't pissed and bitter with our government when the public approval of all of our branches of government is at all time lows? Do you really want us to believe that the "resilient" American public is walking around with smiles on their faces thinking "happy days are here again"?

Of course, you, as the elite, are so far from a home foreclosure, a job loss, or taking your kids to Mickey Ds to feed your family that you would even know what it is like to be a "real American."

It reminds me recently of a party I had at my house, where my father-in-law, in his prime earning years and quite comfortable, was shocked to learn that two friends of mine in their early to mid-thirties, who work hard in service industries, had no 401ks, IRAs, or even benefits like health care. It was just assumed that they would. I knew they didn't, like a lot of my friends. But that's the benefit of real world "experience" beyond one's own bubble. And it's time for Washington to wake up.

Simply put, Obama's words were only condescending if you are an elitist.

To the rest of America, they are the TRUTH.

In case you didn't see this

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 16:54:05 EDT

Comments on the SF fundraiser from someone who was actually THERE. Thanks Sandy!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/hopeandchange/gGBWzl

I was at the Obama fundraiser in San Francisco that has gotten so much attention of late. It was a small event, maybe 250 people. Having seen Obama speak at large rallies, this event had more of a living room feel, despite the fact that people were packed in like sardines in a large private house. Obama's speech was part stump speech, part relaxed conversation with his supporters.

At the end of this small event Obama took four questions, one of which was from a couple of supporters going to Pennsylvania to work for the campaign. They wanted to know what kinds of questions they could expect to get from people in Pennsylvania. Obama began to answer their question by talking about the cultural and geographic diversity in Pennsylvania. He then proceeded to talk about what kind of attitudes and obstacles they might run into in the parts of the state that had been economically devastated by job loss. He talked about the fact that they would run into great cynicism about Washington or any promise of political change. He talked about the frustration and yes, bitterness, in some of these areas, where people had lost industry and jobs twenty five years before, jobs that never came back. He talked about the culture in these communities and what people had done to cope with economic hardship. This was an attempt both to tell these supporters what they might run up against and what were the challenges for the campaign in the industrial Midwest as a whole. Obama was both giving a speech to the supporters present at the event and a heart-to-heart to this couple that was ready to go door-to-door in Pennsylvania.

Imagine my surprise to see an article in the Huffington Post by Mayhill Fowler describing his answer as "a problematic judgment call in trying to explain working class culture to a much wealthier audience." and his answer being like "explaining the yawning cultural gap that separates a Turkeyfoot from a Marin County." I guess Ms. Fowler thought that, unlike herself, the other attendees had never gone outside the large house in Pacific Heights where the event was held. I grew up working class in Texas. I thought it ironic that Ms Fowler, was attempting to paint Obama as a condescending elitist, while at the same time she was stereotyping everybody at the event with her omniscient insight. In any case, her agenda was clear. Despite Ms. Fowler talking about the people at the fundraiser being middle class in an earlier post, the "rich man poor man" theme fit better with the "Obama as a judgmental elite, talking to judgmental elites" spin. This also seemed to fit with some of her earlier articles where she had described Obama as cocky, arrogant, and even "flirty". What a coincidence that she now writes an article putting another twist on Obama's personality. All she had to do was a sneak a recorder in an small event for Obama supporters and do a little bit of crafty writing and out of context editing. Now Fox News and Lou Dobbs are having a field day.

It was great seeing Obama in a relaxed setting, talking both in detail and inspiring prose, in what was essentially a large living room.

Too bad there were roaches under the sofa.

In case you didn't see this

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 12 Apr 2008 16:52:12 EDT

Comments on the SF fundraiser from someone who was actually THERE. Thanks Sandy!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/hopeandchange/gGBWzl

It was great seeing Obama in a relaxed setting, talking both in detail and inspiring prose, in what was essentially a large living room.

Too bad there were roaches under the sofa.

Is Hillary like GW Bush?

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 12:14:34 EDT

Interesting read from Polikicks:

http://polikicks.blogspot.com/2008/03/is-hillary-clinton-next-bush.html

Obama is a better manager

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 11:55:24 EDT

http://www.eyesonobama.com/blog/content/id_13381/title_A-Better-Executive-Obama-or-Clinton/

The Obama feminists - why young women are supporting Barack

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 11:39:54 EDT

this is a REALLY interesting read

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/blackandbrownnews/the-obama-feminists-why-y_b_96128.html

A touching story from one of our brave men in uniform

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:47:17 EDT

This message was posted to the NC for Obama listserv. I found it to be a moving testimonial.

Bryan: we thank you for your service to our country and for sharing your story

Jamie

****************************************************************

My names Bryan, and i usually dont Post or send emails to the whole group, but i wanted to share something with you.

I am a active duty member of the US ARMY, im 18, and i will be leaving for my first deployment in iraq next tuesday. When i heard that Michelle Obama was comeing to Raleigh, NC, i was exited, and i drove up from fayetteville with a friend to go see her speak. As i sat there during her speach, it dawned on me that Barack and his wife is just like all of us.... with the same struggles, hardships, and heartaches that we all "regular people" experience...and i will never ever stereotype him as "just another politician" again. I was stunned by the motivation, and the intensity of the crowd, not to mention hearing one of the best speaches ive heard in a while. So after Mrs. Obama was done, she made her rounds shaking hands and signing autograpghs, and when she came to me? well i handed here a $20 dollar bill and asked her to autograph it for me ( it was all i had in my pocket). i told her that i was deploying to iraq next week, and tha t i hope that her and her husband will do everything in there power to bring us home. she stared at me and for a second and i saw so much compassion in her, i think i turned red. she then asked me if she could get a hug, and told me to stay safe, and that they will work hard to bring us home. but the words was not what affected me, it was her emotion and compassion that was shared, it was amazing... i never have seen or felt a emotional connection with a "politician" before! thats when i knew that this was the man and woman i wanted for the top job. they represent the things that so many of us represent, honesty, compassion, family, respect, and so many more.... so she gave back my 20 dollar bill ( it was not signed because she was not allowed to sign money) got a peice of paper and wrote me a note and signed it. she gave it to me, and with anather hug she wished me luck and moved on to the next person.

I hope that every person will be able to share a connection with the Obamas... its truly amazing!!!

bryan oran

bryan kawika oran [bryan.oran@gmail.com]

************************************************************************

A touching story from one of our brave men in uniform

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:44:19 EDT

This message was posted to the NC for Obama listserv. I found it to be a moving testimonial.

Brya: we thank you for your service to our country and for sharing your story

Jamie

****************************************************************

My names Bryan, and i usually dont Post or send emails to the whole group, but i wanted to share something with you.

I hope that every person will be able to share a connection with the Obamas... its truly amazing!!!

bryan oran

bryan kawika oran [bryan.oran@gmail.com]

************************************************************************

NC Voter registration surges!!!!!!!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:27:48 EDT

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/04/nc_voter_registrations_surge.php

So cool to know that I've been a part of this particular surge!

HRC's management missteps call electability into question

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:20:57 EDT

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9478.html

Michelle Obama comes to North Carolina

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:14:48 EDT

Well folks, Michelle was in town last night and she ROCKED THE HOUSE! We loved her in Raleigh as much as I hear they loved her in Winston-Salem and on her other stops. She is truly an amazing speaker, and delivered a motivating, moving and uplifting message of hope in the face of an ever-moving goal post.

Our local paper estimated the crowd at just shy of 6,000, and every one of them was up off their feet at least a dozen times during her remarks.

The story from our local paper, the Raleigh News & Observer

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1030379.html

Interesting discussion of the red state/blue state conventional wisdom.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:05:04 EDT

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9464.html

"Obama didn't want my money"

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:01:29 EDT

Very cool article from a federal lobbyist for a non-profit whose contribution was returned.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/9/191452/3683

Recent NC polling data

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:45:02 EDT

Poll Tracker | NC-Pres (D)

NC-Pres (D) Apr 8 SurveyUSAObama 49%, Clinton 39%
NC-Pres (D) Apr 7 PPP (D)Obama 54%, Clinton 33%
NC-Pres (D) Apr 5 RasmussenObama 56%, Clinton 33%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 31 PPP (D)Obama 54%, Clinton 36%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 31 ARGObama 51%, Clinton 38%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 27 InsiderAdvantageObama 49%, Clinton 34%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 25 PPP (D)Obama 55%, Clinton 34%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 19 PPP (D)Obama 44%, Clinton 43%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 11 SurveyUSAObama 49%, Clinton 41%
NC-Pres (D) Mar 9 Rasmussen
Obama 47%, Clinton 40%

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/ncpres_d/

Dems poised to expand majority in US Senate

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:41:07 EDT

Which will be a much easier task with Obama at the head of the national ticket, in my opinion:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/senate_post.php

One Million Dollar Minute

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:38:07 EDT

Cool idea!

http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/apr2008/id2008047_357799.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

Clinton camp won't define Penn's new role

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:04:06 EDT

In other words, nothng has changed, excelt the campaign got to have the "Penn resigns" headlines truncate the Columbia trade agreement story.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/08/mark-penns-clinton-camp-r_n_95656.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/penn-speaks-in-private-wi_n_95508.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/08/mark-penn-and-hillary-cli_n_95603.html

Another PA poll shows HRC leads by single digits

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:58:55 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/pennsylvania-primary-poll_n_94943.html

Mark Penn is still working for HRC: he was on this morning's conference call

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 16:58:34 EDT

According to Talking Points Memo:

Demoted Hillary Clinton strategist Mark Penn may no longer have the coveted title of chief strategist, but he remains a key member of the campaign's senior staff.
Mr. Penn took part on the campaign's morning message call this morning, as usual.
This afternoon, he is also scheduled to be on a call with Clinton and other aides to begin to prepare for Saturday's presidential debate in Philadelphia.
Mr. Penn "is still going to be very much involved," a senior campaign official said.
Indeed, it is not clear precisely what Mr. Penn's title-change
entails, other than a public rebuke, although the official said that
"there is a difference between being in charge and being one of many
voices.

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/tpm-didnt-mention-mark-penn-wa.php

Obama has a 9-point national lead

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 16:55:55 EDT

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/gallup_obama_leads_clinton_by.php

Polls show Obama with big lead in NC; tied in PA!!!!

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 16:40:48 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/north-carolina-primary-po_n_94955.html

Mark Penn resigns. But not really.

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 20:01:47 EDT

In true Clintonista fashion, that all depends on what the definition of "resigns" is. Of course.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/mark-penn-resigns-from-cl_n_95323.html

And this analysis from Alan on Obama Rapid Response:

> Penn no longer has the title "Chief Strategist". But Penn and his
> company "will continue to provide polling and advice."
>
> Apparently, still on payroll. Still getting millions. No mention of his
> meeting with the Colombian president or whether Hillary knew and
> approved of it in advance. No ment ion of why, after meeting with Penn,
> the Colombian president began attacking OBAMA.
>
> Hillary did NOT fire him. She did NOT get his resignation. He just has
> given one job title over to Wolfson. Other than that, he's still working
> for her--still planning strategy, still making recommendations based on
> his polls.
>
> Nothing. Has. Changed.

What did Bill do for that $15million???

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 16:09:26 EDT

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/04/what-did-bill-do-to-get-1_n_95189.html

Clintonlies about her record compared to Obama's

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 15:45:20 EDT

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/in-oregon-clint.html

Even by the fractured.bizzar-o world logic that she asserts should govern the candidates' opposition to Iraq (starting only when Barack was elected to the US Senate), she opposed the war AFTER Obama did. But sure-- while we're at it, let's agree only to count elected experience where the candidate was accountable to an electorate. y that measure HRC has LESS experience than Barack. So she loses.

Clinton Dictionary

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 11:17:02 EDT

HILARIOUS!!

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/clinton-political-dictionary.php

From: Cafe, MuckrakerCLINTON POLITICAL DICTIONARY

By - April 5, 2008, 11:51AM

A POLITICAL GAME FOR ALL TO PLAY

After the HRC Campaign’s “misspeaking”, “misplacing”, and “mishearing”, and given HRC’s declared fight till the Convention, an expanded vocabulary will be needed to cover future mistruths. Some useful words follow, with “misappropriate” “misreferences” :

Misadventure(s) – Bill’s diversion(s)

Misalignment – supporting Obama

Misapplication - using a false resume for senior appointment

Misapprehension – caught in the act

Misappropriate – not politically correct

Mischance – trying to get away with a “whopper”

Mischief – someone not ready for the 3am phone call

Misconstruction – bad building control in NY

Miscount – figures showing the winner is the loser

Misdeal – NAFTA

Misdemeanor – smiling when your opponent wins

Miserable – the real person behind the mis-demeanor

Misfire – imaginary sniper rounds

Misfit – Mark Penn

Misfortune – the amount Obama raises every month

Misgiving – not paying campaign bills

Misguided – missiles that missed me

Misjudgement – justification for a Presidential pardon

Mislay – adultery

Misplace – the place where I really DID dodge sniper fire etc.

Misprint – the Press who attack me

Misquote – anything said that the voters didn’t like

Misread – anything written that the voters didn’t like

Misrepresentation – superdelegate supporting Obama in a Clinton state

Misspell – magic that Obama uses at his rallies

Misspend – February campaign finances

Misstate – State that doesn’t count because it voted by caucus

Mistake – White House gifts that went with the Clintons

Mistime – 3am phone calls that keep waking me

Misunderstand – anything not covered by the above

Further suggestions to be sent to Howard Wolfson.

Encouraging new polling data

RJC in Hillsborough NC — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 19:52:58 EDT

Contrary to the story that the MSM is running with (that Obama has "peaked" and his poll numbers are softening), the REAL story appears to be that he is on a roll.

The charts are from Pollster.com

He maintains a lead here in NC, and some polls show him leading Hillary in Pennsylvania. Indiana looks like a virtual dead heat.