Mark Elrod's Barack Obama Blog

It's Obama-Biden

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 14:59:30 EDT

I got my text message at 1:40 this morning -- Joe Biden (D-DE) will be our nation's 47th vice-president come January.

They're undoubtedly dancing in the streets of Wilmington, my hometown. One of my claims to fame in Arkansas is that I am one of the few people I know who has actually voted for Joe Biden in the past.

I'm proud to say that he was my senator for a couple of years.

I'm going to be working my Delaware connection all weekend here in Denver, looking for interviews with the First State's delegation.

Now if you'll excuse ME, I have to go collect my winnings in the Washington Center VP poll.

I think I may have won at least $50.

Arkansas Business Weekly: Waiting on Hillary

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 14:54:43 EDT

I posted my first story from the convention with Arkansas Business Weekly yesterday.

t was an embellishment of a story I first posted here about the importance of HRC's speech at the convention on Tuesday night. You can read it here.

I guess the other big news is that I learned yesterday that I have been accepted to work at Invesco Field as a "community volunteer" on Thursday night for Senator Obama's acceptance speech here in Denver.

The good news is that I'll be there; the bad news is that it looks like I'll be there *all day* Thursday.

Depending on the wireless situation at Invesco, that may limit what I'm able to write on the biggest day of the convention.

Stay tuned.

Once You Get Past Three, It's Hard to Keep Count

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 08:00:10 EDT

The next time you hear John McCain or one of his spokespersons suggest that Barack Obama is not like other Americans, ask yourself how many Americans would be stumped when asked the following question:

"How many homes do you own?"

Most Americans can tell you without thinking about it very much but Senator McCain isn't sure...

From Politico.com: "Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview Wednesday that he was uncertain how many houses he and his wife, Cindy, own. 'I think — I'll have my staff get to you,' McCain told Politico in Las Cruces, N.M. 'It's condominiums where — I'll have them get to you.' "

The correct answer is at least four, located in Arizona, California and Virginia but Newsweek estimated this summer that the John and Cindy McCain own at least seven properties.

But it could be higher. Who really knows?

Waiting on Hillary

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 07:57:40 EDT

One year ago, Hillary Clinton was probably thinking that Denver 2008 was going to be her moment.

She was probably right, even in the absence of securing the right to lead the Democratic ticket in November.

It would appear by all accounts that the success of Barack Obama in November is going to hinge on what HRC says in the Pepsi Center in Denver on Tuesday night. In fact, it could be argued that until she makes that speech, Hillary Rodham Clinton is the most important person associated with the DNC right now.

Polling data bears this out.

This started out as a good week for John McCain. The Russia-Georgia crisis worked to his advantage, particularly in light of Barack Obama's Hawaiian vacation. His conversation with Rick Warren at Saddleback Church probably gave the Republican party's fundamentalist base enough information to assure them that Senator McCain supports the issues they are most concerned about. And there is some evidence of "Obama fatigue" in both the media and among undecided voters.

The good news (for Obama supporters) is that that many of of those undecided voters are Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries and who have yet to be prodded by the Clintons to get behind Obama.

MSNBC's First Read reports:

Even after she ended her presidential bid back in June, perhaps we should have guessed that this presidential contest (or at least the convention) was still going to be about the Clintons. And our new NBC/WSJ poll is the latest evidence to back this up. In the survey, Obama leads McCain by three points, 45%-42%, which is down from his six-point advantage last month. Our pollsters identified a few factors behind the tightening race -- the Russia-Georgia conflict, McCain's negative ads, and lingering doubts about Obama -- but the biggest reason why this race remains close in this Dem-leaning political environment is because of Obama's inability to close the deal with some of Clinton's supporters. According to the poll, 52% of them say they will vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee, but 21% are backing McCain and an additional 27% are either undecided or want to vote for someone else. For that reason, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says Clinton's convention speech on Tuesday, as well as when her name is put in nomination, will be significant. "The Democratic convention is more than a coronation," Hart explains. "It is an event where the words of Hillary Clinton are probably going to be exceptionally important."

The dilemma for HRC is that she has to sincerely and convincingly rally her troops to get behind Obama if she ever wants to run for president again. Anything less would be seen by the Democratic base (liberals and African-Americans) as a sell-out designed to promote her own interests of those of the party.

My guess is that she will make the speech and then hit the trail hard for Obama in swing states, particularly with white, working-class voters. I don't think it can be assumed that Bill Clinton will do the same thing.

There will inevitably come a time when Bill and Hillary Clinton don't suck the air out of a room when they step into it and will cease to be the center of the Democratic Party universe.

That time certainly won't come before Tuesday night but it has to come before Wednesday morning if Democrats hope to make victory in November a reality.

Mid-Week Sign of the Impending Apocalypse

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:38:48 EDT

Toby Keith endorses Barack Obama.

Toby Keith, perhaps best known to non-country audiences for his post-Sept. 11 song "Courtesy of the Red, White and Blue," says he's a Democrat, and was impressed by the senator from Illinois.

Keith has said in the past that the 2002 song — which included lines aimed at the Taliban like "we lit up your world like the Fourth of July" — was more patriotic than pro-war.

Asked while promoting his new movie "Beer For My Horses" about the role of patriotism in the current presidential election, Keith replied: "There's a big part of America that really believes that there is a war on terrorism, and that we need to finish up.

"So I thought it was beautiful the other day when Obama went to Afghanistan and got educated about Afghanistan and Iraq. He came back and said some really nice things.

"So as far as leadership and patriotism goes, I think it's really important that those things have to take place. And I think he's the best Democratic candidate we've had since Bill Clinton. And that's coming from a Democrat."

Go, Toby, go.

Saddleback

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:33:09 EDT

I watched enough of the Obama-McCain confab with Rick Warren last Saturday night to develop at least two observations.

You can read a full transcript here.

My first thought is that a significant segment of the American public has a rather unhealthy obsession with the religious views of presidential candidates in spite of the fact that the framers wrote a "no religious test" clause into our constitution.

I've always appreciated that clause, even though we've never done a good job living up to it.

The framers certainly seem to have understood that the quickest was to disqualify an otherwise capable decision-maker from office was to subject him/her to a spiritual litmus test.

This topic actually came up in my Washington Center small group meeting earlier this week when one of my international students asked me why Americans talked about religion so much during elections. For most of them, this was a very odd topic to focus so much attention on during a presidential campaign.

In light of the religious test clause, I suggested that there were any number of "unofficial" qualifications we use for candidates and religious faith is just one of them.

The second observation is that Barack Obama should get points for just showing up to visit with Rick Warren and his minions at Saddleback Church. It appeared to me that it was a McCain-friendly audience and that Obama's answers were a little too brainy and reflective for a largely knee-jerk, conservative audience.

And while Pastor Warren has received high marks for this event, I'm not really sure it helps most voters all that much when candidates are interrogated for an hour about about something as personal as their faith or their prayer life.

Moreover, what's going to happen if some other best-selling evangelical minister decides that he wants to conduct an interview with Obama/McCain in the next few weeks? I'd like to think that both campaigns will have enough sense to say "No thanks, we think we've had enough of this..."

Maybe you have some better thoughts than I do.

Does Experience Matter?

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:30:30 EDT

One of the frequent criticisms of Barack Obama leveled by both the GOP and HRC was is lack of "experience" as a public servant, particularly in the area of foreign affairs.

The historical pattern would seem to indicate that it doesn't really matter -- presidents with vast prior experience before coming to office as well as those with little prior experience both seem to become high and low performers once in office.

Michael Genovese made several interesting observations about this argument in a historical context today at our morning meeting with the Washington Center Campaign 2008 faculty and students and presented the following pattern of experience versus performance in both domestic and foreign affairs:

Much prior experience and high performance: Franklin Roosevelt
Much prior experience and low performance: James Buchanan
Little prior experience and high performance: Abraham Lincoln
Little prior experience and low performance: George W. Bush

In other words, sometimes it's the job that makes the man and not the man who makes the job.

Ridin' on Biden

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:28:29 EDT

Don't tell my employers but I've got $5 riding on Joe Biden in the Washington Center vice-presidential faculty pool.

And he's now moved onto the very short list and there may be an announcement by the end of the week.

ME and at least three other people on the WC faculty picked Biden in the pool the other night. I was tempted to go with a long shot but somebody already beat me to Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Hegel.

It looks like I could win a cool $50 (for the charity of my choice, of course).

Meteoro-Theology Quiz (II)

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 16:08:02 EDT

In an online video, Stuart Shepard of Focus on the Family recently asked members to pray that rain of Biblical proportions would fall on Barack Obama’s acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver on August 28.

Focus on the Family has now pulled that video from its website because:

A) The Denver weather forecast calls for clear skies and zero precipitation on August 28.

B) The Obama campaign raised $40 million in two weeks to put a temporary roof on Invesco Field.

C) The Lord only does that kind of thing for Republicans on election day.

D) Focus on the Family is now asking members to pray for locusts, frogs, boils and the death of the first born child of every Democrat.

E) People were taking Stuart seriously.

If you said “E”, you are correct.

Really, Stuart. You need to send out some kind of code words to let us know when you're not serious about your prayer life.

Otherwise, you're wasting the time of thousands of mindless followers.

Kudos to Senator McCain

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:41:41 EDT

For accomplishing something that I would never have thought possible.

You have made Paris Hilton appear talented, funny and smart.

Nice job (viewer discretion advised)...

Meteoro-Theology Quiz

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 15:37:29 EDT

Stuart Shepard of Focus on the Family wants you to pray for something pretty important.

He wants you to ask the Lord to:

A) End to all wars.

B) End poverty in all parts of the world.

C) Help researchers find a cure for every imaginable disease.

D) Bring an end to prejudice, racism and ethno-nationalism in our lifetime.

E) Make it rain on Barack Obama's acceptance speech at Invesco Field in Denver on August 28.

If you said "E", you are correct.

Shepard serves up some rather convoluted theology as well. If it does rain on Obama (and ME) in Denver, he's going to take credit for it. If it doesn't rain, he's okay with that.

Like Senator McCain, I suspect that Shepard also has 18-year old interns running things for him.

h/t: kk

Portrait of the Candidates as a Pile of Words

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 11:47:45 EDT

Apparently, the media's obsession with Barack Obamaincludes the candidate's own weblogs.

Word analysis from Wordle.net shows that the most frequently used word on both Barack Obama's and John McCain's blog is "Obama".

Senator McCain's name doesn't appear anywhere on Barack Obama's blog.

John Schwenkler used Wordle.com to find the word frequencies.

h/t: jf

Don't Mess With Delaware

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:17:48 EDT

Well, with the Delaware GOP anyway.

I feel your pain, Jan.

A Theory

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 17:20:39 EDT

After looking as the McCain campaign ad comparing Barack Obama to Brittany Spears and Paris Hilton and an offer at JohnMcCain.com to give a Barack Obama tire gauge to anyone who makes a $25 contribution, I have concluded that John McCain's presidential campaign is being run by 18-year old interns.

Prove me I'm wrong.

"Hello Mitt, Goodbye Base"

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:58:24 EDT

At the start of presidential primary process, I suggested to several people that Mitt Romney might have a problem courting Christian evangelical "values" voters because he's a Mormon.

Apparently, that also applies to any aspirations Romney has for becoming John McCain's vice-president.

Prominent evangelical leaders are warning Sen. John McCain against picking former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as his running mate, saying their troops will abandon the Republican ticket on Election Day if that happens.
They say Mr. Romney lacks trust on issues such as outlawing abortion and opposing same-sex marriage and because he is a Mormon. Opposition is particularly powerful among those who supported former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in the Republican presidential primaries earlier this year.

As usual, the Religious Right wants public leaders whose values are founded in religion.

Just not that religion.

So if Mitt gets the nod, it could mean mean "goodbye GOP base" in 2008.

There's also this little problem: Candidate McCain's mother doesn't like Mormons either.

Scapegoating

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 22:03:30 EDT

There's a good read in the Christian Science Monitor today about the Knoxville church shootings.

The crux of the article is that the attack was a combination of a marginalized human being, poor economic conditions and a vulnerable target: a "liberal" church.

Sadly, attacks like this one are becoming far too common in America.

Mr. Adkisson's is certainly not the first person to feel victimized by society but in this case, his vengeance was incredibly delusional...

To be sure, any direct connection between the shootings and the nation's economic woes is hard to verify, says Cecil Greek, a criminologist at Florida State University in Tallahassee. More likely, Mr. Greek says, Adkisson's alleged outburst may have been tied into suddenly jarred expectations – in his case, his ability to find a job and even stay on food stamps – at a time when a majority of Americans are questioning the country's course and many are feeling an economic pinch.

Several other reports have cited Adkisson's inability to stay on food stamps as something that triggered his attack on the Unitarian Universalist Church.

I think it is fair to say that food stamps are a product of "liberal" social legislation. If many of the conservatives I know had their way, Mr. Adkisson would never have seen a food stamp to begin with.

Because in some minds, poverty programs begin and end with "get a job."

So, in a sense, Adkisson attacked the very people who cared about him the most.

Sealing the Deal (Stay Tuned)

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:22:31 EDT

Most mornings, I begin my day with "Morning Joe" as in Joe Scarborough on MSNBC.

The most endearing features of "Morning Joe" are "News You Can't Use", news updates from Mika Brzezinski and frequent visits from Pat Buchanan who normally rises from his cot in a janitor's closet at NBC studios around sunrise and immediately starts railing on camera about Barack Obama's lack of support among blue collar Irish Catholics.

Joe usually does a good job of getting my dander up but by the end of my morning bike ride, my dander is right back were it ought to be.

Scarboriugh is a former Florida ("Redneck Riviera") congressman and lapsed Southern Baptist who claims to know the evangelical mind. One of his favorite lines of attack is to skip all the "liberal" ad hominems and immediately accuse someone (usually Mika) of being a Marxist.

As such, he likes guests who are either former congressmen, Washington insiders, Hollywood celebrities, and Mike Huckabee. I've always suspected that Scarborough's support for Huckabee is a form of Baptist penitence for his suggestion that Fred Thompson's wife was a stripper.

And, like President Bush and Senator McCain, he likes to tout his lack of intellectualism when it's obvious a guest knows more about a problem than he does. Scarborough generally likes to get these people on camera as quickly as possible.

I like MSNBC but I think "Morning Joe" is a prime example of everything that's wrong with the mainstream media as it reports and discusses presidential campaigns. Namely, that it's crucial for the MSM to make the process as entertaining as possible.

The latest meme is that in spite of the tremendous publicity and positive reception given to Barack Obama, Scarborough, Buchanan and company have continued to beat the dead horse that Obama has failed to "seal the deal."

Well...

We are still 99 days from an election that most people really don't start paying attention to until after Labor Day.
John McCain has had almost two decades to "seal the deal" and he's trailing in almost every national poll. If anybody has failed to "seal the deal" it's Senator McCain.
Zeroing in on one national poll (Gallup) at odds with almost every poll taken up to this point is probably a bad idea. At least wait until the next national poll comes out tomorrow morning before declaring that Barack Obama's momentum has stalled.
More down-ballot candidates are actively seeking the support of Barack Obama in their own races than are seeking the support of either John McCain or George Bush. A few weeks ago, GOP Senate leaders told members to vote anyway they wanted on legislation if they thought it would mean winning reelection. That fact alone should indicate that the 2008 election is not going to be a squeaker.
Barack Obama now has a sizable lead in Pennsylvania and in several other battleground states that should never be in play for an African-American with a funny name who is frequently identified as "most liberal in Congress."
Foreign policy, the single greatest advantage that Senator McCain has over Barack Obama, was neutralized somewhat by Obama's trip to Europe and the Middle East and the fact that Senator McCain has all the subtlety of a hydrogen bomb when it comes to actual diplomacy. Telling the Russians that he wants them out of the G-8 has already alienated his administration from a nation we need to work with rather than against in the coming years.
Every Electoral College projection map I can find shows that Obama may have already "sealed the deal" with respect to how many electors he's going to need on November 4.

It's easy to sit back and wonder why with all of the gaffes and missteps by John McCain in the last few weeks and the domestic and foreign policy failures of the incumbent party, why Obama is not ahead by 15 points in every poll, three months before the election.

The reason is pretty simple (imho): Voters are still getting to know Obama, particularly in middle America. They seem to know John McCain and he's already hit his ceiling with respect to national polls while Obama hasn't.

But stayed tuned. I suspect when Obama does get to that 15 percent lead in national polls that Joe & Co. will attribute it to John McCain's poor performance or just set the bar a little higher for Senator Obama.

I Guess There Was a Time When This Was Pretty Funny

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 15:21:49 EDT

Like President Bush, Senator McCain likes to joke about what a bad student he was in school.

In the president's case, the gag usually goes like this: "I may not be the smartest guy in the room but I'm still the president."

But 4,000 Americans lives and $540 billion later, the president’s jokes just don’t get big yucks any more.

The good news is that this election is starting to look more and more like one of my favorite West Wing episodes.

"Crime, boy... I don't know."

Still Searching for the Better Angels of Our Nature

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:58:42 EDT

The message below really touched a nerve with ME and the author has given me permission to share it.

It comes from Al Price in Memphis.

I'm starting to feel more and more that the angst among many Christian evangelicals about Barack Obama becoming our nation's 44th president is based on race as much as anything. Al's email makes it pretty clear that's what he's seeing and hearing in his community.

On my best days, I like to think we're better than this as both Christians and Americans. But I'm also starting to think that I've been naive when it comes to the abject racism that still lingers within the hearts of many of the people who share a pew with me on Sunday mornings.

On the eve of the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln closed his first inaugural address with a plea for union and hope that all Americans would be "again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature."

Maybe we're no closer to accomplishing that mission than we were in 1861 and I've just been engaged in wishful thinking for most of my adult life.

In either case, I'm committing myself to lifting up a prayer every day to ask that that the "better angels" will find and touch the people Al describes in his message.

*****

Dear Brethren:

One of my favorite quotations comes from the great German reformer Martin Luther: "If I profess with the loudest voice and clearest exposition every portion of the truth of God except precisely that little point which the world and the devil are at that moment attacking, I am not confessing Christ, however boldly I may be professing Christ. Where the battle rages, there the loyalty of the soldier is proved; and to be steady on all the battlefields besides is mere flight and disgrace if he flinches at that point."

Today, the devil is attacking and Christians appear not only to be oblivious to its nature but even embracing the message and the behavior. Whether other voices will be raised against this onslaught, I know not, but I do know that I must speak now. I'm taking this means to do so and to be on record. None of our Christian papers will publish an article of this type.

We are discovering that there is a latent form of racism existing among our brethren, just waiting for an opportunity to reveal itself. That opportunity came when it appeared that an African American would be the nominee of his party for the presidency of the U.S. In the past three months, I have been appalled at the racist messages coming from preachers, church leaders, and members, in sermons, in Bible classes, word of mouth, and via e-mail. It appears there is a sense of justification for the racist expressions and sending deliberate lies in supporting another candidate and party.

At the beginning of a Bible class a church leader said, "I'm sure by now that all of you have seen the sad report on the evening news. It was announced yesterday that the Rose Garden at the White House was being torn up. It is being replaced by a watermelon patch." (Laughter) And another leader responded, "And I hear they are changing the food to chitterlings." (Laughter)

Here is an e-mail from a Christian: "Knock, knock. Who's there? Eyes! Eyes who? Eyes your new president."

Another e-mail from a Christian quoted the candidate as saying, "When I'm president, everyone will have a job." The picture shows a large crowd of African Americans fleeing. The caption reads: "The candidate just lost the black vote."

A preacher sent me an e-mail that declared the candidate is a Muslim, identified with the anti-Christ in Revelation, doesn't put his hand over his heart during the Pledge of Allegiance, took the oath of his office on the Quran, associates with the Taliban, and quoted him as saying that if there were ever conflict between America and the Muslims, he would choose the Muslims, etc. When the veracity of these claims was challenged, he said, "I don't care."

Another preacher declared from the pulpit: "This is the scariest election we as Christians have ever faced. From the looks of the polls, the Christians aren't voting Christian values."

When did God give us the right to engage in such behavior (spreading lies and racism) when defending a political choice?

know that many Christians, when unable to defend such negative stereotyping, will spring the abortion issue as if that allows them to engage in the behavior above. I've written some thoughts on that topic as well. Should you wish to consider how this issue has been "used" for the past 28 years to garner support for a party, I'll send it to you.

Sincerely, Al Price

Ich bin ein Obama

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 22:23:47 EDT

Holy smokes... Let's go ahead and vote. How many electoral votes does Berlin have these days anyway?

And if John McCain is waiting for Obama to give a bad speech, it's not a good strategy.

People of the world - look at Berlin!

Look at Berlin, where Germans and Americans learned to work together and trust each other less than three years after facing each other on the field of battle.

Look at Berlin, where the determination of a people met the generosity of the Marshall Plan and created a German miracle; where a victory over tyranny gave rise to NATO, the greatest alliance ever formed to defend our common security.

Look at Berlin, where the bullet holes in the buildings and the somber stones and pillars near the Brandenburg Gate insist that we never forget our common humanity.

People of the world - look at Berlin, where a wall came down, a continent came together, and history proved that there is no challenge too great for a world that stands as one.

See the entire speech here.

Electing Barack Obama president instantly makes us a better nation in the eyes of the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, Back in the Heart of Red State America

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:35:02 EDT

My friend GKB sent this to ME today from Idaho.

It follows, therefore, that an Idahoan voting for Senator Larry "Wide Stance" Craig is like _______________________.

Pinch ME

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:07:23 EDT

If you asked me what could possibly make my work at the Democratic National Convention in August any better, all I could say was, "Well, maybe if Bruce Springsteen made an appearance..."

This just in...

Musical guests include Kanye West, Wyclef Jean, John Legend, Q-Tip and the Black Eyed Peas. What looms over them all is the larger-than-life speculation of a Bruce Springsteen performance following Obama's Thursday night speech. There's been no announcement from the iconic rocker, who endorsed Obama in April, but fans note a suspiciously empty week in Springsteen's tour schedule the week of the Democratic convention in Denver.

I actually heard about this last week but I wanted to see something in writing before I posted about it.

And before you ask, "Yes, once I get my ticket, I'll start working on yours".

Note to Self...

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 11:05:29 EDT

"If you ever run for president, don't let your campaign staff put your name on anything that your opponent may actually enjoy wiping his dirty feet on..."

Besides, who's got $70 for a doormat?

I'm just sayin'.

h/t: tpm

Armstrong: McCain, Obama Can't Hang

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 19:40:49 EDT

No kidding, Lance...

Lance Armstrong addressed the media with four past Surgeons General early this afternoon at the National Call to Action on Cancer Prevention and Survivorship at the National Press Club.

The press conference's purpose was to outline a national battle plan against cancer.

When asked which presidential candidate he would rather have as his workout buddy, Armstrong said there was an obvious choice, but that he tries to stay apolitical when it comes to the issue of cancer prevention and surviviorship and that he is confident both candidates would strongly support the cause.

Upon further consideration Armstrong replied, "Neither of them could hang."

For the record, Barack Obama owns and uses a bike helmet. Good for him.

So Much for "Compasionate Conservativism"

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 15:37:46 EDT

I'm not sure if it ever really existed in reality.

But the party of the right sure has been making it a lot easier for the opposition to paint them as detached and uncaring lately.

Last week, John McCain's top economic advisor, Phil Gramm, called the country with the highest worker productivity in the world "a nation of whiners" (that's America, by the way).

Phil Gramm is both an economist and a politician, so he should know better than to say something like this in front of cameras and microphones.

Like President Bush tried to do yesterday...

Unaware he was being recorded, President Bush at a Houston fundraiser last week compared Wall Street to a drunk with a hangover and cracked jokes about the ailing housing market. "There's no question about it. Wall Street got drunk — that's one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras — it got drunk and now it's got a hangover," Bush said at a private fundraiser for Republican congressional candidate Pete Olson.

"The question is: How long will it sober up and not try to do all these fancy financial instruments?"

I would be the last person in the world to argue that economics or financial analysis are an exact science but you can't dismiss "fancy financial instruments" when hard-working people are hurting as a result of economic factors beyond their control

So it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them.

Strike that last part.

The Surge Revisted (Again)

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 15:18:06 EDT

The McCain and Obama campaigns have been going back and forth over the last few days on the effectiveness of "The Surge" in Iraq.

John McCain says that The Surge has either "succeeded" or "is succeeding" but American troops need to remain in Iraq until we have defeated the insurgency there and this may take like, forever. Senator McCain also seems to be going out of his way to point out that Barack Obama opposed The Surge.
Barack Obama says that it doesn't matter whether The Surge has worked or not. American troops need to be out of Iraq by 2010 and the Iraqi government agrees with him. The fact that there is virtually no more "Al Qaeda" in Iraq may or may not be the result of the surge. In addition to extra security in and around Baghdad, the American military has also provided some rather lavish pay-o-la to local Sunni tribal leaders to cut their support to foreign fighters in Iraq. So it's hard to know if the improved security situation is the result of more US troops or more US money.

In either case, Obama's argument for a "phased withdrawal" from Iraq in 16-18 months is practical from a military/logistical standpoint.

And I could be wrong about this but I don't think anyone from the Obama campaign has pointed out what is to me the most obvious fact about McCain's statements about Obama's opposition to The Surge.

Namely, that The Surge would never have been necessary if John McCain and other pro-war Senators hadn't authorized George Bush's occupation of Iraq in the first place.

Obama's Missing Two Percent

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 13:18:27 EDT

I've been wonder aloud for some time about how much of Barack Obama's support is being under-counted because of the proliferation of cell phones. T

oday, the number of Americans who are "completely wireless" now stands at about thirty percent of the population.

And this is important because of Obama's overwhelming support for Obama among younger voters who may not even know that land-lines exist. This group also includes college students as well as a large number of renters and Hispanic voters.

And this number is significant...

And this election cycle -- for the first, and perhaps only, time -- this group has the chance to render presidential polls "wrong from the start": potentially disguising at least 2 to 3 percentage points of Obama support and maybe more.

Heretofore my industry has dismissed the cellphone-only population with a troika of "yes, buts." Yes, they're undercounted, but 1) they don't vote anyway; 2) their numbers are still small; and 3) we can find acceptable substitutes in the land-line population.

And to be honest, there is a fourth, still more powerful rationale that remains unstated: "Yes, they're undercounted, but it's too damn difficult and expensive to reach them."

It's my understanding that pollsters still haven't found a way to compensate for this. While it's not likely to have an impact on the support for John McCain in national polls, it's reasonable to think that Obama's lead over him may actually be greater than what is being reported.

Obama Releases List of Approved Jokes About Himself

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:19:12 EDT

From The Borowitz Report (h/t: cb)

Saying he is "sympathetic to late night comedians' struggle to find jokes to make about me," Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) today issued a list of official campaign-approved Barack Obama jokes.

The five jokes, which Sen. Obama said he is making available to all comedians free of charge, are as follows:

Barack Obama and a kangaroo pull up to a gas station. The gas station attendant takes one look at the kangaroo and says, "You know, we don't get many kangaroos here." Barack Obama replies, "At these prices, I'm not surprised. That's why we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil."

A traveling salesman knocks on the door of a farmhouse, and much to his surprise, Barack Obama answers the door. The salesman says, "I was expecting the farmer's daughter." Barack Obama replies, "She's not here. The farm was foreclosed on because of subprime loans that are making a mockery of the American Dream."

A horse walks into a bar. The bartender says, "Why the long face?" Barack Obama replies, "His jockey just lost his health insurance, which should be the right of all Americans."

Q: What's black and white and red all over? A: (Barack Obama) "The New Yorker magazine, which should be embarrassed after publishing such a tasteless and offensive cover, which I reject and denounce."

A Christian, a Jew and Barack Obama are in a rowboat in the middle of the ocean. Barack Obama says, "This joke isn't going to work because there's no Muslim in this boat."

With Friends With These

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 16:13:00 EDT

I have to say that I have mixed feelings about this having myself started a Facebook event calling attention to the fact that Barack Obama's middle name is "Hussein".

But I'm afraid that this does more harm that good, given the fact that most people only see The New Yorker on a news stand or at the dentist's office rather than actually read it.

The New Yorker's editor explains all here.

Michael Shaw runs down the "what" of what's wrong with this picture here.

The actual New Yorker article is pretty good.

George W. Bush's Farewell Tour

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 10:47:03 EDT

My detractors have frequently given me a hard for being such a vocal critic of the president.

I actually like to think think that I've treated him with the respect that comes with his office and I haven't been as hard on him as I could be.

That's not easy given the fact that I think he's one of the worst presidents in the history of presidents.

This includes everything from US presidents to middle school class presidents.

But in most cases, the best testimony about George W. Bush general incompetence is found in his own words. As many have already observed, the president often sounds more like a frat boy than the commander-in-chief of the most powerful nation in the known universe.

Such as his parting words to G-8 leaders at his final meeting with them in Japan this week...

The American leader, who has been condemned throughout his presidency for failing to tackle climate change, ended a private meeting with the words: 'Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter.'

He then punched the air while grinning widely, as the rest of those present including Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy looked on in shock.

One official who witnessed the extraordinary scene said afterwards: 'Everyone was very surprised that he was making a joke about America's record on pollution.'

I know he's a short-timer and he's largely irrelevant now but climate change and America's role in protecting the environment are too important to be reduced to a joke with other national leaders.

Brown and Sarkozy had to be questioning the sanity of the American voters who elected George W. Bush to be president with the same frequency as they did Washington and Lincoln.

POTUS Siting in Little Rock

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:29:54 EDT

My buddy Chuck West snapped this photo of President Bush's motorcade passing his house in Little Rock yesterday.

Yes, that's an Obama yard sign in Chuck's well-manicured front yard...

I Spy

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:31:29 EDT

The LA Times reports today that we're spying on our new bffs, the Iraqi army:

Caught off guard by recent Iraqi military operations, the United States is using spy satellites that ordinarily are trained on adversaries to monitor the movements of the American-backed Iraqi army, current and former U.S. officials say.

The stepped-up surveillance reflects breakdowns in trust and coordination between the two forces. Officials said it was part of an expanded intelligence effort launched after American commanders were surprised by the timing of the Iraqi army's violent push into Basra three months ago.

This reminds me of one of those rocky romantic relationships that's just about ready to go into the toilet.

The kind where one partner suspects that the other is cheating on him and then hires a private detective to track her movements.

Or takes the far less expensive option of stalking her all by himself.

Made in China

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 09:27:57 EDT

A story in the New York Times today reports that the American military trainers in Guantánamo Bay based an entire interrogation class on a chart copied from another source.

What the trainers did not say, and may not have known, was that their chart had been copied verbatim from a 1957 Air Force study of Chinese Communist techniques used during the Korean War to obtain confessions, many of them false, from American prisoners.

The recycled chart is the latest and most vivid evidence of the way Communist interrogation methods that the United States long described as torture became the basis for interrogations both by the military at the base at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, and by the Central Intelligence Agency.

In what critics describe as a remarkable case of historical amnesia, officials who drew on the SERE program appear to have been unaware that it had been created as a result of concern about false confessions by American prisoners.

I think this is probably the same manual they used when I was going through Naval aircrew survival training in 1977.

I remember being told to never get caught in a lie because your interrogators will make your life miserable. On the other hand, it was okay to give misleading information up to the point where they conclude that you are an idiot.

That's always worked for ME.

But as we prepare to celebrate 232 years of freedom, the last thing thing in the world I need to know is that my government has been imitating the bad guys all these years.

Hey, I Think I Can See My House From Here!

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 08:22:03 EDT

Ever wonder how the other half lives? I'm talking about the people who don't pump their own gas or know how much its costs.

Well, maybe you are that other half and you already know.

If you're not, check out this tour of John McCain's (R-Ariz) homes from the Jed Report.

It's almost like being there.

(Wipe your feet).

h/t: HuffPo/jl

Tick, Tick, Tick

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 12:01:38 EDT

Start the clock on the Charlie Black deathwatch:

A top adviser to John McCain said another terrorist attack on U.S. soil would be a "big advantage" for the Republican presidential candidate, drawing a sharp rebuke Monday from both the presumed GOP nominee and Democrat Barack Obama.

Charlie Black, already in the spotlight for his past lobbying work, is quoted in the upcoming July 7 edition of Fortune magazine as saying such an attack "certainly would be a big advantage to him." Black said Monday he regretted the comment.

The classic definition of a political gaffe is saying something that is true in public that you should only say in private.

In that case, Mr. Black's comments are just another bucket of water over Niagara Falls.

But just imagine how terrifying this statement would been if it had come from John McCain's pastor in a sermon rather than just one of his top political advisors.

Loose Ends

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 22:37:55 EDT

Please tell me that this is yet another one of those occasions where Bill Kristol doesn't know what he's talking about:

On Fox News Sunday this morning, Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol said that President Bush is more likely to attack Iran if he believes Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is going to be elected.

However, “if the president thought John McCain was going to be the next president, he would think it more appropriate to let the next president make that decision than do it on his way out,” Kristol said, reinforcing the fact that McCain is offering a third Bush term on Iran.

“I do wonder with Senator Obama, if President Bush thinks Senator Obama’s going to win, does he somehow think — does he worry that Obama won’t follow through on that policy,” Kristol added.

I have to think that leaving America with two unresolved wars would be plenty enough to shape any ex-president's legacy.

Three would just be piling on.

Blame It On Fox News

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 22:03:57 EDT

A Tennessee Democrat has apologized for making comments in a Nashville newspaper connecting Barack Obama with terrorism.

His excuse: He watches Fox News.

In his letter of apology to the state Democratic Party Executive Committee, committee member Fred Hobbs wrote:

I was not as well prepared as I should have been when speaking with reporters, and I should have taken more time to research Senator Obama’s positions. My comments did reflect questions I had after what I had seen reported on Fox News, but I should have taken some time to check the accuracy of what I saw on television before speaking publicly. My statement that Senator Obama “may be terrorist-connected” was incorrect, and I apologize for making it.

I've got to remember that one -- it may come in handy some day.

Get Me Re-write...

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 10:29:09 EDT

Yesterday, Senator John McCain simultaneously claimed that Barack Obama has the most liberal voting record in Congress and that Obama votes with President Bush most of the time.

How is that possible?

What Does Lifting the Ban on Offshore Drilling Mean?

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:01:52 EDT

In terms of the supply of petroleum or gas prices -- not much.

The United States uses nearly 21 million barrels a day of petroleum and liquified hydrocarbon fuel, or nearly 25% of everything the world produces daily.

The US has 5% of the world's population. The US produces about 5 million barrels a day of petroleum and another 3 million barrels a day of liquefied fuel. That 8 million barrels a day is only about a third of what we use, so we import the rest.

The lower 48 states produced about 4.4 million barrels of petroleum a day in 2006. If all the known offshore fields were drilled and panned out, the lower 48's oil production would be increased by 7%. That would be 300,000 barrels a day.

But in terms of Florida's 27 electoral votes -- maybe a lot.

Most Florida politicians have opposed drilling because they fear it would harm beaches vital to the state's tourism economy and interfere with weapons testing and training in and over the Gulf of Mexico by Florida military bases.

Democrats also argued additional offshore drilling would not affect prices set on the world market.

"It would only increase oil companies' record-breaking profits," said Florida Democratic Party spokesman Mark Bubriski.

Just in Time for Father's Day

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 11:34:14 EDT

Alan, if you're reading this, you dad needs one of these.

Man of Peace

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 12:49:12 EDT

Like most of us, President Bush is learning that hindsight is 20-20.

President Bush has admitted to The Times that his gun-slinging rhetoric made the world believe that he was a “guy really anxious for war” in Iraq. He said that his aim now was to leave his successor a legacy of international diplomacy for tackling Iran.

In an exclusive interview, he expressed regret at the bitter divisions over the war and said that he was troubled about how his country had been misunderstood. “I think that in retrospect I could have used a different tone, a different rhetoric.”

Phrases such as “bring them on” or “dead or alive”, he said, “indicated to people that I was, you know, not a man of peace”. He said that he found it very painful “to put youngsters in harm’s way”. He added: “I try to meet with as many of the families as I can. And I have an obligation to comfort and console as best as I possibly can. I also have an obligation to make sure that those lives were not lost in vain.”

Yep. And I'm not sorry I hit that baseball through my parent's upstairs window when when I was twelve -- I'm only sorry for jumping up and down as I was circling the bases and then apologizing for being such a good hitter.

Maybe this is the kind of thing the president is talking about:

"'Kick ass!' [Bush] said, echoing Colin Powell's tough talk. 'If somebody tries to stop the march to democracy, we will seek them out and kill them! We must be tougher than hell! This Vietnam stuff, this is not even close. It is a mind-set. We can't send that message. It's an excuse to prepare us for withdrawal.

"There is a series of moments and this is one of them. Our will is being tested, but we are resolute. We have a better way. Stay strong! Stay the course! Kill them! Be confident! Prevail! We are going to wipe them out! We are not blinking!'"

I'll go out on a limb and say that when scholars and academics get around to writing the history of George W. Bush's eight years in the White House, the words "man of peace" will not be used very often.

The current reality is that if the Bush administration was a movie, most rational people would have walked out on it a long time ago.

Frankenbama

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 09:00:18 EDT

If Barack Obama was everything the far right claimed he was, what would he be?

He would be a Marxist, Islamic terrorist with ties to African-American liberation theology, the Black Panthers and a cult-like Christian church on the south side of Chicago.

He's the most liberal member of congress and has an irrational hated of America.

He’s also an elitist. This weakens his Marxist credentials slightly but he’s going to bring the man down if it costs every cent in his portfolio.

He is the anti-Christ prophesied in the book of Revelation.

And his wife hates whitey (which would include at least half of her in-laws) and America.

So he's one scary dude.

Which makes you wonder what the voters of Illinois were thinking when they elected him to the Senate or what the Defense Department was thinking when they gave him a security clearance.

Two Ways to Look at National Polls

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 10 Jun 2008 08:32:00 EDT

Candidates often say things like "The only poll that counts is the one they take on election day" and "I don't pay much attention to polls".

When they say these kind of things, they're lying.

Presidential candidates spend millions of dollars on internal polls and pay a lot of attention to the polls they don't commission. In the 2008 presidential election, the Gallup daily tracking is a good measure of national trends and usually gets the most attention because it's the oldest and best-established.

In the first post-Clinton Gallup poll, Barack Obama is favored over John McCain for president, 48%-42%. That same poll found that 53% of Democrats want Obama to choose HRC as his running mate while 36% say he should choose someone else.

A Rasmussen daily tracking poll released today gives Obama at 48%-40% that is comparable to the Gallup poll's findings. When "leaners" are included, Obama's lead is 50%-44%.

In other words, two reputable national polls show that Obama has a lead that is outside the polls statistical margin of error. As an Obama supporter, I feel pretty good about that but it's June and there are a lot of bridges to cross between now and November 4.

Another way to think about polling and elections is to ignore national polls and focus attention on state polls and the electoral college. After all, we don't elect by popular vote and we probably never will.

So while the national polls may be a good indicator of where public opinion is trending, state polls are what really matter.

There are several sources for checking state polls on an electoral college map that I use in addition to the Gallup and Rasmussen polls. In 2004, I used electoral-vote.com to track where the candidates were gaining and losing ground. It proved to be pretty accurate and the author has started updating the site every day now, or at least when new state polls are available.

According to electoral-vote.com, Obama currently leads in the electoral college race, 287-227 with 24 EVs from two states (Virginia, Indiana) split between the two candidates.

This is also good news for Obama, although I seriously doubt that Indiana will vote for a Democrat in 2008. Rasmussen also analyzes the race each day from the perspective of the electoral college and does a good job of breaking down where the candidates will be campaigning for the next six months.

Obama starts with a "base" of 12 states and 157 electoral votes that will go for a Democrat, no matter who that Democrat is: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3).:

For his part, McCain starts with a "base" of 21 states and 168 electoral votes that will go for a Republican, no matter who that Republican is: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

Twelve states with 149 Electoral Votes are either toss-ups or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. Five Democrat-leaning states account for 60 electoral votes: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10) and three states with 51 votes lean Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).

While it's speculated that the Democrats can "steal" a few states such as Missouri and Virginia from the Republicans in November and the Republicans could do the same with Michigan and Pennsylvania, right now there are really only four genuine "toss-up" states: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).

So, in 2008, while it may be fun to pay attention to those national polls as a barometer of where public opinion is leaning, it's more important to follow the polls in a handful of states.

Rupert Murdoch on War and Oil

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 22:21:52 EDT

“The greatest thing to come out of this for the world economy…would be $20 a barrel for oil. That’s bigger than any tax cut in any country… Once [Iraq] is behind us, the whole world will benefit from cheaper oil which will be a bigger stimulus than anything else.” - Rupert Murdoch

The Alternative News Universe

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 18:26:12 EDT

Maybe you've got a case of the Mondays.

If so, check out Google News from the alternate universe that we all wish we were living in today.

You'll be glad you did.

Iraq & Afghanistan Vets Deserve Better

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 09:52:45 EDT

Like they say, "If you love your freedom, thank a Vet".

And other people say, "One way to do that is to avoid housing soldiers who are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) 200 yards from a firing range on an Army base".

This is how the WaPo describes what soldiers suffering from PTSD housed at the "warrior transition unit" at Fort Benning, Georgia are forced to deal with every day:

Across the street from their assigned housing, about 200 yards away, are some of the Army infantry's main firing ranges, and day and night, several days each week, barrages from rifles and machine guns echo around Strickland's building. The noise makes the wounded cringe, startle in their formations, and stay awake and on edge, according to several soldiers interviewed at the barracks last month. The gunfire recently sent one soldier to the emergency room with an anxiety attack, they said.

Soldiers interviewed said complaints to medical personnel at Fort Benning's Martin Army Community Hospital and officers in their chain of command have brought no relief, prompting one soldier's father to contact The Washington Post.

According to base personnel, nobody has complained about the situation - according to the WaPo, a lot of people have complained. T

he larger question is what the Army was thinking when they built housing for PTSD patients 200 yards from a firing range in the first place.

RFK

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 13:45:46 EDT

We stand here in the name of freedom. At the heart of that Western freedom and democracy is the belief that the individual man, the child of God, is the touchstone of value, and all society, all groups and states exist for that person's benefit. Therefore, the enlargement of liberty for individual human beings must be the supreme goal and the abiding practice of any Western society. - Robert F. Kennedy

I'm sure you didn't hear it here first today, but June 6 marks the 40th anniversary of Robert F. Kennedy's assassination.

Kennedy was shot on June 5, 1968 at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles, shortly after winning the California Democratic Primary. He died the next morning.

To say that his death was a tragedy is an understatement. Apart from depriving the world of a gifted and charismatic political leader, RFK was a father, husband, son and brother and we often overlook things like that when discussing the deaths of public figures.

RFK's death was just one of many events that took place in 1968 that young convinced young Mark Elrod that the world was falling apart - the Tet Offensive in Viet Nam, the Pueblo crisis, the death of Martin Luther King and subsequent riots in America's cities, the Biafra War in Nigeria, riots at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia.

It was a really bad year but RFK's death stands out to me more than most of these other events.

I think it was because that event though I was only 11 years old, I still understood that Bobby Kennedy was young, happy and energetic and liked that. I also knew that his brother had been president and I wanted him to be president too. Even at the time, it seemed crazy to me that so much sadness could be associated with one family.

There's no way to know for sure but I've always felt that if Kennedy had not died at the hand of Sirhan Sirhan forty years ago today, he would have been elected president in 1968, and the war in Vietnam would have ended sooner. So, there's your macro-tragedy.

So for those you who aren't old enough to have even a fleeting memory of RFK, you may be wondering what kind of man he was.

The quotation above is from Kennedy's "Day of Affirmation", speech at the University of Capetown, South Africa on June 6, 1966.

Consider the fact that it was delivered to an all-white audience at an all-white school in apartheid South Africa.

If you've never heard it or read it you should. It's probably the best thing you'll read all day.

Good Morning America

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 04 Jun 2008 13:13:11 EDT

America can best be described as a work in progress.

Even the preamble to our fundamental law makes it clear that what we are all about is creating a "more perfect" union of states, ethnicities, religions, and economic classes.

As the poem by Emma Lazarus on the Statue of Liberty in New York harbor puts it, America is a beacon to the world and most of us, no matter how our ancestors got into this country, are the children of huddled masses yearning to breath free.

Americans do amazing things - we feed the world, we educate the poor, we defend the defenseless.

We do some pretty dumb things too - the history as a nation is demarcated by a nasty civil war that was fought over the issue of slavery. On either side of that war, we've fought too many other unnecessary wars in the name of things like "Manifest Destiny" and the preservation of empire.

Perhaps our worst characteristic has been closing the door to this great county just as soon as we've stepped through it. At the same time, we've forced both Native Americans and imported Americans to fight for their rights at every turn. Too often today, we still tend to segregate ourselves by race and class.

Likewise, it has taken us too long to recognize the full rights of American women --it's only been within my lifetime that women and minorities stood any chance of holding public office in significant numbers in this country.

This morning, if you're lucky enough to call yourself an American, you can't look at the history of this country and not be proud of what Americans have accomplished. In spite of the battles we've fought over sexism and racism, the results of the 2008 Democratic primary are the best sign that we're getting better and still interested in creating a more perfect union.

Please take a moment today to reflect on the fact that nominating an African-American man to run for the highest office in this country -- a position once reserved exclusively by law for property-owning white makes -- is an amazing historical accomplishment.

I'm proud to call myself a Democrat today.

More importantly, I'm proud to call myself an American.

Calling the Race

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 15:06:00 EDT

I suspect that as the remaining super delegates trickle toward Obama today that the new services will follow suit and begin calling Barack Obama as the winner of the 2008 Democratic primary.

The Associated Press calls it for Obama at 1:28 CDT today.

As of 1:53 CDT, MSNBC still puts Obama 27.5 delegates short of the 2,118 but the AP count is based 15 delegates who committed to Obama with the Associate Press and on and the number of delegates Obama will pick up if he wins at least 30% of the vote in Montana and South Dakota.

Maybe a little premature put it certainly puts more pressure on HRC to call make some kind of announcement tonight when the polls close.

Where We Are

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 09:11:03 EDT

Barack Obama is 37 delegates short of the 2,118 delegates (now) needed to secure the Democratic nomination for president.

Hillary Clinton is 198 delegates short of 2,118, which means she needs about 84% of the 235.5 remaining pledged and super delegates to be nominated.

NBC reports that approximately 18 remaining super delegates in the Senate and at least 34 members of the House of Representatives are now ready to endorse Obama. With Obama set to win about 17 delegates in Montana and South Carolina tomorrow, this would easily put him over the top. More importantly, it would appear that the reality of the mathematics of the delegate count has finally gotten through to the Clinton campaign.

By all reports, Hillary Clinton certainly seems to be on verge of suspending her campaign and while she could technically take her case for the nomination to the Denver convention, the impending super delegate rush tomorrow and on Wednesday is going to make that unlikely.

The best news for Obama is that when these 50 or so super delegates are combined with the Montana and South Dakota results tomorrow, HRC’s only remaining arguments for getting the nomination become moot, particularly among Democratic party leaders.

The postmortem among media pundits and the incriminations within the Clinton campaign will start sometime on Wednesday morning but I’m going to jump ahead and suggest at least three factors right now:

Overestimating the importance of New Hampshire: While New Hampshire was technically a draw, Clinton won the popular vote and was able to claim victory in what has traditionally been the most important primary for both parties. In the past, winning New Hampshire has been critical to securing the nomination, the exceptions being Republicans John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Democrats Estes Kefauver in 1952 and 1956 and Paul Tsongas in 1992. With the addition of an additional caucus (Nevada) and primary (South Carolina) state in 2008, both Iowa and New Hampshire became less significant to gaining or losing momentum in the campaign.
Underestimating the power of a movement: The Clinton campaign has pointed out (correctly) on numerous occasions that it has been out-spent by the Obama campaign. But what they fail to mention is that Obama was able to spend more because his campaign was able to raise more money from more people in smaller donations. I’m pretty certain that more than a few books or dissertations are going to be written about the tactical brilliance of the Obama campaign but it’s real beauty was in not being taken seriously by the Clinton campaign until it was too late.
Almost-weekly movement of the goalposts: In spite of the fact that the Democratic party set some clear criteria for winning the nomination (like winning 2,025 delegates) nobody in the Clinton campaign seemed to take them seriously and was constantly presenting new reasons why HRC should be declared the party’s nominee. I think this began with Bill Clinton’s assertion that “even Jesse Jackson won South Carolina” when Democrats in that state rejected the Clintons in favor of Obama. It continued with Hillary and her surrogates continuing to argue that HRC had won the popular vote (in selected states) and that’s what matters and that the votes of people who vote in caucus states don’t matter as much as those of voters in Florida and Michigan. These appeals were directed toward super delegates but I think they ended up insulting the intelligence of most other voters.

I’m sure there are at least 1-2 other factors I haven’t considered but I’m sure you’ll let me know what they are before Wednesday.

Help Wanted

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 27 May 2008 07:19:56 EDT

If you're one of the millions of American college students looking for a job this summer, you're going to have some competition: the millions of other Americans who need a second job to pay for the gas they need to get to their first job. In either case, as a public service, I've compiled a few summer jobs that may be fun or lucrative for old and young alike.

Nuclear safety inspector in Maine. This position pays $71,000 a year and the best part is that it doesn't actually exist. Maine closed it's only nuclear reactor in 1997 and eliminated the position in 2005.
Sell a 10-year old cheese sandwich bearing an image of the Virgin Mary on eEbay for $26,000.
Work as a comment troll for John McCain. His campaign is taking applications now. There's no money involved but it's indoor work with no heavy lifting and no dress code.

Warning: No matter where you find that job, the FINRA wants you to know that there's a group of Latvians out there using certain job classifieds for identity theft. So, be careful.

Memorial Day, 2008

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 26 May 2008 10:35:55 EDT

I put the flag out on holidays because that's what dad always did.

But when I put out the flag on Memorial Day, it always makes me a little sad because I think most of men we honor on this day would rather been doing something else when they died in one of America's wars.

Most of men who become fatalities in war die young and for political causes that seemed popular at the time. No matter how they died, they all died in fulfillment of the adage that "Old men fight wars and young men die".

I've told my students on many occasions that if I could change one universal political practice it would be to require that if you vote of a war, you must immediately enlist to fight in the war you approved.

That would either give us fewer wars or more physically disqualified enlistees.

The number of Americans who have died in modern wars is too high but relatively smaller than the number of young men from other countries who have died in wars the wars of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

One of the few pieces of "good news" to emerge from the modern war system is that in recent years, the survival rate of a American wounded in battle is dramatically higher today than in past wars. In World War II, about 3 in 10 American soldiers wounded in combat died -- that number dropped to about 2.5 in 10 in Korea, Vietnam and the Persian Gulf War. In Iraq and Afghanistan, the number has dropped to 1 in 7.

On this Memorial Day, I've been thinking about the young men who have fought in our wars who came home alive but physically or mentally scarred from the experience.

The exact number of American veterans suffering from postraumatic stress disorder is controversial because many are never diagnosed. Recent studies estimate that 1 in 5 Afghanistan and Iraq war vets have PTSD and the Veteran's Administration has noted a dramatic increase in PTSD claims in recent years that includes a 150% increase in cases between 1999-2004 alone.

Unlike the men who died in America's wars, these victims are still with us and deserve the best treatment that society can provide. To honor America's war dead by waving a flag or organizing a few parades is cheap. To give honor and medical treatment to the living and mentally wounded may be more expensive but it's what they deserve.

Again, it seems to me that if you're going to vote to send young men to war, the least you can do is vote to take care of them when they come home, particularly if they come back without all of their faculties intact.

The fact that our VA system has gone underfunded in recent years relative to the American defense budget is probably one of the less-noted tragedies of the current American war system and certainly worthy of more attention than it's getting right now.

I was thinking about J.D. Salinger's short story, For Esmé - with Love and Squalor, while I was writing this. If you haven't, Memorial Day would be a good time to give it a read.

Is Barack Hussein Obama a Muslim?

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 24 May 2008 12:23:53 EDT

The definitive website with the definitive answer.

I wish I had thought of this.

I didn't, but I'm more than happy to do anything I can to get the percentage of Americans who still believe that Barack Obama is a Muslim into single digits.

What She Said

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 23 May 2008 20:38:26 EDT

At a meeting today with the editorial board of the Argus Leader today in Sioux Falls, South Dakota (somewhat paraphrased; watch the video for context):

People have been trying to push me out of this ever since Iowa... It is unprecedented in history... My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it.

And later today in a Brandon, South Dakota grocery store:

Earlier today, I was discussing the Democratic primary history and in the course of that discussion mentioned the campaigns that both my husband and Sen. Kennedy waged in California in June in 1992 and 1968, and I was referencing those to make the point that we have had nominating primary contests that go into June. That's an historic fact. The Kennedys have been much on my mind in the last days because of Sen. [Edward] Kennedy, and I regret that if my referencing that moment of trauma for our entire nation and particularly for the Kennedy family was in any way offensive. I certainly had no intention of that whatsoever.

I'm going to give Mrs. Clinton the benefit of the doubt and assume that she was not expressing a desire that something bad happen to Barack Obama before the convention in August. But it was a pretty ham-handed comment from somebody who is an astute politician.

Personally, I found the strangest part of HRC's comments to be her assertion that "people have been trying to push me out of this since Iowa".

Of course they've been trying to "push her out"... we do elections in this country, not coronations.

Another Reverend Under the Bus

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 22 May 2008 18:08:00 EDT

It has to be getting crowded under there...

John McCain has rejected the endorsement of Reverend John Hagee and Hagee has reciprocated by rejecting his endorsement of John McCain. That's kind of like the "You can't fire me, I quit!" line.

To say that Hagee has been "controversial" in his pronouncements concerning Catholics, Jews, and the state Israel is an understatement.

Most of those pronouncements are part of a rather (IMHO) convoluted eschatology popular among Christian evangelicals that involves the re-establishment of the state of Israel, the rebuilding of the Temple in Jerusalem and the second coming of Christ. It may also involve either the election of John McCain or the the anti-christ in 2008. We'll know more about that on November 5.

But as someone who has managed to interpret just about every verse in the Bible as being somehow associated with a political event, Hagee certainly saw this coming. It certainly makes you wonder why he didn't reject McCain first.

A Ticket I Can Live With

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 21 May 2008 07:28:42 EDT

Barack Obama inched closer to the Democratic nomination last night despite a thumping in Kentucky and a predicted win in Oregon.

In his victory speech from Iowa last night, Obama offered praised to both Hillary Clinton and her supporters for their effort to seat a Democrat in the White House. Obama is going to need both if he wants to win the White House in November.

Naturally, there will be even more attention focused on when Clinton will suspend her campaign and who Barack Obama will select for vice-president in the coming weeks.

I've suspected for some time that Obama's VP nominee will have to be somebody who is a more established political leader (i.e., "older) than Obama with impeccable foreign policy credentials who is not named Hillary Clinton. I'm now leaning toward Joe Biden (DE), Wesley Clark or Jim Webb (VA).

I don't see HRC giving up her Senate seat to run for vice-president in 2008 but Obama faces the same problem as every nominee selected in a close race faces: he has to at least offer a place on the ticket to the runner-up.

In the case of John F. Kennedy in 1960, the offer of the vice-presidency to then-Senate majority leader Lyndon Johnson backfired when LBJ unexpectedly accepted the offer. The Kennedys assumed that the offer was a formality and nobody as powerful as Johnson who give that up to be second bananna.

James Andrew Miller of the WaPo offers an interesting solution to the "what about Hillary?" problem for the Obama campaign: offer her the next vacancy on the US Supreme Court.

I think this would have to be done rather stealthily -- Hillary has already raised more money for the RNC over the years than most Republicans. If HRC were publicly touted for a seat on the Court, more than a few conservative heads would explode.

But it's a good idea and would go a long way toward shoring-up support for an Obama-______________ ticket in the Democratic base.

Memory Lane

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 19 May 2008 19:14:30 EDT

I would be the last person in the world to suggest that gas prices are entirely the responsibility of the president of the United States.

But George Bush made some specific promises in this area that I think are worth remembering.

Today, I was trying to remember some of the promises that the current administration made with respect to oil prices during the 2000 election.

Gov. George W. Bush of Texas said today that if he was president, he would bring down gasoline prices through sheer force of personality, by creating enough political good will with oil-producing nations that they would increase their supply of crude.

''I would work with our friends in OPEC to convince them to open up the spigot, to increase the supply,'' Mr. Bush, the presumptive Republican candidate for president, told reporters here today.

''Use the capital that my administration will earn, with the Kuwaitis or the Saudis, and convince them to open up the spigot.'' Implicit in his comments was a criticism of the Clinton administration as failing to take advantage of the good will that the United States built with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia during the Persian Gulf war in 1991. Also implicit was that as the son of the president who built the coalition that drove the Iraqis out of Kuwait, Mr. Bush would be able to establish ties on a personal level that would persuade oil-producing nations that they owed the United States something in return.

''Ours is a nation that helped Kuwait and the Saudis, and you'd think we'd have the capital necessary to convince them to increase the crude supplies,'' he said. (Katherine Q. Seelye, New Yorks Times Jun 28, 2000)

And in practice...

President Bush said Saturday that the Saudis' modest increase in oil production "doesn't solve our problem," and that the United States must act itself to help bring down soaring gas prices.

"We've got to do more at home," the president said on the lush lawn of a resort overlooking the Red Sea. Speaking after a private meeting with Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai, he mentioned moves that have long been part of his agenda but stymied in Congress, such as developing alternate fuels, improving conservation and expanding domestic exploration.

Bush said he told Saudi King Abdullah during talks Friday that the kingdom should be concerned that high energy prices are hurting some of its biggest customers, including the United States. He asked Abdullah for an injection of oil supply to help ease the pain. "High energy prices are going to cause countries like mine to accelerate our move to alternative energy," he said he told the king.

But Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said Friday it had decided a week before Bush's visit to raise production by 300,000 barrels a day to 9.45 million barrels a day and didn't see any need to do more. Energy analysts called the boost a token — it represents just 3 percent of the total — and it was seen as a rebuff, if a gentle one, of Bush by Abdullah.

Apparently, even the modest increase in Saudi production had very little to do with the president's powers of personal persuasion.

So having failed to convince OPEC leaders to increase production, President Bush will now turn to convincing Americans that we are addicted to foreign oil and need to do more to conserve energy.

Which is the same position his opponent took in 2000.

Mark it Down...

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 15 May 2008 17:54:19 EDT

If elected president, John McCain has formally promised to...

End the American combat role in Iraq by 2013 (US troops would stay in a non-combat role).
Appoint Democrats to his administration (other than Joe Lieberman, I'm guessing).
Hold weekly press conferences.
Conduct "question time" with the legislative branch like the British prime minister.
Give Americans with the choice of paying a simple flat tax or following their standard 1040 form.

"Question time"... I can't wait to see that one.

George Bush Launches His Campaign for Prime Minister of Israel

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 15 May 2008 17:52:11 EDT

There is used to be an old adage that politics ends at the waters edge.

It may be a little bit like Hulk Hogan giving lectures on the dangers of steroids but President Bush has been doing free foreign policy lessons at the Israeli Knesset:

President Bush invoked the specter of the Holocaust to warn Thursday that the incendiary language of extremists must be taken seriously, and he provoked a furor back in the United States by suggesting that Democrats favor "appeasement" and want to "negotiate with the terrorists.

Congressional Democrats interpreted Bush's remarks as a swipe in particular at Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination. Obama called the comments "a false political attack," accused Bush of practicing "the politics of fear" and denied ever supporting "engagement with terrorists."

As you know, Mr. Bush has made quite a name for himself in the last seven years managing sensitive diplomatic problems with our friends and adversaries around the world.

And while his approval rating in the United States is hovering around 29%, he generally polls below that in most other countries.

This is a sure sign that his approach to foreign policy has been working.

Hillary's Big Mistake

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 15 May 2008 08:32:42 EDT

Hendrik Hertzberg of The New Yorker was just asked by the crew on MSNBC's Morning Joe, "What was Hillary Clinton's biggest mistake?"

Hertzberg's (tongue in cheek) response: She moved to the wrong state. If she had moved to Illinois instead of New York, she would be the state's senior senator and not Barack Obama.

I guess hindsight and clairvoyance can both be 20-20.

John Edwards Hearts Obama

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 15 May 2008 08:30:30 EDT

It's about time, Mr. Edwards...

I was at an event in Little Rock this evening and heard some folks whispering the news that John Edwards had finally endorsed somebody in the Democratic primary.

This certainly takes something off the thumping Obama took in West Virginia on Tuesday and the endorsement has obviously been in the works for some time.

I'm anxious to see if Edwards works to close the blue-collar gap between Obama and Hillary Clinton in Kentucky.

It's an interesting development but it's probably inconsequential to the final outcome.

But anything that will get this thing over by June 3 is welcomed.

Mission Accomplished

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 12 May 2008 19:06:41 EDT

For the last several weeks, I've been waging war with the raccoons that have been terrorizing my garbage cans.

With the aid of a live trap and what I think is a very generous relocation program, I managed to capture three of these critters in a week.

The capture of Rocky V in my backyard last week signals the end of the raccoon assault on my garbage cans. I am therefore pleased to make the following announcement:

My fellow Americans: Major combat operations in my backyard have ended. In the Battle with the Raccoons, the Elrod family and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing the area around my carport. In this battle, we have fought for the cause of liberty, and for the peace of the neighborhood.

Our home and our coalition are proud of this accomplishment — yet it is you, the readers of my blog, who achieved it. Your courage — your willingness to face danger for your country and for each other — made this day possible. Because of you, our backyard is more secure. Because of you, the tyrant has fallen, and my backyard is free from raccoons.

As a precaution against a raccoon insurgency, I am keeping the live trap set and baited.

When the squirrels in the yard are able to provide security for the backyard on their own, the trap will be removed. As they stand up, I'll stand down.

Before you ask, I didn't make the sign... it was the squirrels' idea.

Sisters of No Mercy

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 06 May 2008 16:25:37 EDT

Media sources are reporting higher-than-usual voter turnout in North Carolina and Indiana today.

Indiana is experimenting with a new tough law that requires all voters to show a state or federally-approved form of identification in order to vote.

How tough is it?

The AP reports that a group of twelve nuns were turned away from voting by another nun at Saint Mary's Convent in South Bend today because they had no form of identification.

I say let the sisters vote.

They just don't need to make a habit out if it.

For the Record, I Don't Put My Lot With Witch Doctors

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 06 May 2008 08:26:08 EDT

This is either good news or bad news, depending on how you feel about economists:

When asked if she could name a single economist who backs her call for a gas tax holiday this summer, HRC said "I'm not going to put my lot in with economists."

Robert Reich, a former Clinton Administration Labor Secretary, concluded on his blog that HRC's response to the question about the gas tax holiday gimmick is economically stupid (not really an economic term) and highly unlikely to become law anyway, given the fact that neither Hillary Clinton nor John McCain are president.

But the fact that HRC has gone on record that she doesn't trust economists certainly places her in a bind. At some point, a president usually finds some good news from economists to crow about.

That's hard to do if you've already told everyone that you don't trust them.

Obamath

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 05 May 2008 23:01:55 EDT

Tomorrow, Democrats in North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72) will elect 46% of the remaining pledged delegates in this primary season.

So it's an important day for our democracy, again.

I've mentioned before that the reality of what remains of the Democratic primary is a battle between Hillary Clinton's campaign and some math so simple that even I can understand how it works.

It has also been noted that the delegate projections made by the Obama campaign several months for each caucus and primary has been remarkably accurate. In fact, Obama's delegate count is actually running ahead of what they projected. For example, the Obama campaign projected that Barack Obama would win 75 of 158 delegates in Pennsylvania two weeks ago and he won 73. This weekend, in the all-important Guam primary, a 2-2 split on Guam's four remaining delegates was dead on with Ombamath projected.

As the DailyKos pointed out in March, even in states "lost" by Obama on Super Tuesday (like California) the difference was actually smaller than what was projected. It also gave him a comfortable lead in pledged delegates that has not relinquished.

I've been using the data from Real Clear Politics since Super Tuesday to keep track of the delegate count between Clinton and Obama. There are other good sources but RCP seems to be as up-to-date as any of them.

This is where the count stands as of tonight:

Delegate Count (5/5/08)

Needed to nominate: 2,025

Barack Obama (+139)

Pledged: 1491
Super delegates 256
Total: 1747
Needed to nominate: 278

Hillary Clinton

Pledged: 1337
Super delegates: 271
Total: 1608
Needed to nominate: 417

Total remaining pledged delegates: 404 of of 4,049
Total remaining super delegates: 267 of 794
Total remaining delegates: 671 of 4,843
Difference between Obama projection and delegates needed to win nomination: 53 (281-228)

The bottom line: if the Obamath is correct, Barack Obama will only need 53 super delegates to secure the nomination after the last primaries in Montana and South Dakota on June 3.

Tomorrow, Obama will probably lose Indiana by about 5% and win North Carolina by 9%. But even if they split the two states, Barack Obama will come out ahead of Clinton on pledged delegates 100-87 and will only need another 317 delegates to win the nomination.

A Good Question

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 05 May 2008 22:58:51 EDT

One of the things we'll learn from the exit polls in North Carolina and Indiana tomorrow is the answer to the all-important question: Do voters really care about the pronouncements of Barack Obama's former pastor, Jeremiah Wright?

A related question, posed by E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post, asks: Do white right-wing preachers have it easier than black left-wing preachers? I think Dionne is correct in his assertion that Jeremiah Wright and pastors from white churches such as John McCain's friend John Hagee as well as fear-mongers like Pat Robertson and the late Jerry Falwell should be judged by the same standards as Reverend Wright.

I suspect that when we get into the general election that Senator McCain's association with Hagee will get a lot more attention that it's getting right now. Particularly when McCain begins to distance himself from Hagee's "foreign policy as eschatology" approach to Middle East peace.

On the other hand, dwelling on what either Wright or Hagee thinks about anything while I'm paying $3.50 a gallon for gas and Americans are still dying in Iraq is inconsequential to anything that really matters to ME right now.

Not-so-Wright Stuff

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 07:21:34 EDT

This is a rather superficial observation on my part but Reverend Jeremiah Wright seems to be all about Reverend Wright.

When it comes right down to it, Rev. Wright's comments at the National Press Club yesterday reflect self-promotion of himself and a book rather than his friend, Barack Obama.

On he one hand, that's a good thing because it clearly illustrates that the reverend doesn't speak for Barack Obama in any capacity.

Unfortunately, that's not the story coming out of Jeremiah Wright's now-frequent interviews with the media. Those comments may play well in some parts of the African-American community but they do nothing to build bridges between that community and the community I live in.

I think Bob Herbert of the New York Times has the best take on it:

The question that cries out for an answer from Mr. Wright is why — if he is so passionately committed to liberating and empowering blacks — does he seem so insistent on wrecking the campaign of the only African-American ever to have had a legitimate shot at the presidency.

The other sad part of this affair is that whatever good points Rev. Wright has to bring to a discussion about race in America is going to be lost in what seems to many white voters as bombastic rhetoric. Up to this point,

I have told myself that most voters are smart enough to see the distinction between what candidate Obama believes and what his former pastor says in front of a camera.

But Jeremiah Wright isn't making it any easier for him.

Hillary Clinton Confirms That She Is Not The Candidate of Change

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sun, 27 Apr 2008 18:10:08 EDT

From the digs last week in Pennsylvania:

I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran. In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them. - Hillary Clinton

Surely HRC knows that a response to Iran's non-existant threat to attack Israel (a nuclear-weapons state that could "totally obliderate" Iran without any help from the United States) is not a foreign policy.

It's political pandering of the worst kind and therefore just more of the same.

Politics: Bringing Out the Worst in Christians for 1,975 Years

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:53:25 EDT

My friend Mike Cope opened the floodgates at his blog yesterday by suggesting that there are a lot of people who hate Hillary Clinton and he isn't one of them.

Good for Mike. It takes a lot of guts for a preacher in our fellowship to state publicly that he respects someone who is vilified as often as HRC. It goes without saying that hatred has no place in the lives of people who call themselves Christians.

Many of us struggle to control our emotions and there is no emotion that needs to be controlled more than an emotion that wishes ill of another human being.

But you just had to know that Mike wasn't going to slip that one past his readers. But as it turns out, many of the comments that followed his post eventually proved his point for him.

Mike's observation and the visceral reactions that followed also confirmed my nearly life-long conviction that politics is a minefield when combined with religion. This is particularly true for those believers who view both politics and religion as zero-sum games.

Ironically, this is the one thing that fundamentalist Christians and Muslims seem have in common: both are convinced that there can be no accommodation with non-believers on any level. That's an unfortunate aspect of organized religion and we all need to do a better job managing it.

It also happens to be one of the qualities of Barack Obama's campaign for president that has made ME more excited about an election than I've been in many years.

I'm still convinced that Barack Obama has the potential for uniting people in ways we've never been united before and that includes the way we think about our respective faiths.

Mike used Hillary Clinton to make his point so I'll use the reaction I've seen and heard from some Christians about Obama to make my own:

Small Church's Obama Sign Causes Big Controversy:

Pastor Roger Byrd said that he just wanted to get people thinking.

So last Thursday, he put a new message on the sign at the Jonesville Church of God. It reads: "Obama, Osama, hmm, are they brothers?"

Byrd said that the message wasn't meant to be racial or political. "It's simply to cause people to realize and to see what possibly could happen if we were to get someone in there that does not believe in Jesus Christ," he said.

When asked if he believes that Barack Obama is Muslim, Byrd said, "I don't know. See it asks a question: Are they brothers? In other words, is he Muslim? I don't know. He says he's not. I hope he's not. But I don't know. And it's just something to try to stir people's minds. It was never intended to hurt feelings or to offend anybody."

I'm not sure where Pastor Byrd's heart is today but it's been my experience that one of the characteristics of hate is that it causes you to think an act irrationally. That would include deliberately spreading false statements about someone in the guise of asking a question about them.

At some point, believers need to step back and look at the secular political process as something that doesn't really have that big an other-worldly effect on any of us in the long-run. And when we use hate to drive people away from an otherwise loving God it doesn't help at all either.

h/t: mc & dp

Incidentally: The report above about the sign in front of the Jonesville Church of God is slightly misleading. It reports the sign as asking a question but from what I can see from the photo above, it looks as if the church is actually making a statement or they couldn't afford a question mark when they purchased their sign kit.

Update (4-21-08 @6:45 pm): The sign has been changed as the result of public outcry.

Dude, I'm Going to the Democratic National Convention

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 22 Apr 2008 19:42:43 EDT

It's probably going to be one of the most significant presidential nominating conventions in American history and I'm going to be in the middle of it.

So I'm thinking it might be interesting and it maybe even blogable.

Several months ago, the Washington Center for Internships and Academic Seminars contacted Harding about the possibility of sending some of majors to Washington to work in various internships.

That evolved into an invitation to send students to the Democratic and Republican National Conventions this summer.

TWC also invited faculty members to apply for teaching/facilitator positions and I took advantage of the opening.

I've never been to a political convention at any level before so if I start acting kind of goofy about this as August approaches, please forgive me.

Siege Warfare: PA and Beyond

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 21 Apr 2008 23:31:01 EDT

At the risk of disagreeing with almost everyone in the nation's mainstream media, the campaign for the Democratic nomination for president isn't a bloodbath and it really isn't that close when you get right down to it.

What remains of the 2008 election isn't a horse race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. It's a siege that has Obama fighting to bring down a castle defended by the Clinton campaign.

As military campaigns go, siege warfare isn't that interesting. It's just a matter of slowly choking your opponent to death before help can arrive.

It's slow, meticulous and predictable. In most cases, the only people who won't accept the inevitability of the final result are the defenders of the castle.

The reality is that Barack Obama is probably going to lose in Pennsylvania tomorrow by a margin of 6-7% and Hillary Clinton will net about seven delegates against Obama. This will put Clinton seven delegates closer to Obama but will also put Obama seventy-five delegates closer to wining the nomination.

An Obama upset in Pennsylvania would be welcomed but it's not likely. On the other hand, neither is the double-digit victory that the Clinton campaign needs to make the argument that she is more electable in pivotal electoral college states.

Next Tuesday, Obama will negate Clinton's marginal gains in Pennsylvania by winning North Carolina by at least 15% and seven delegates. Indiana will be so close that even a Clinton victory would not result in a significant change in the delegate count.

Obama is comfortably ahead in delegates, the popular vote in Democratic primaries and he's raising more money from more Democrats that Clinton. By next Wednesday, the remaining superdelegates should start breaking decisively for Obama with the understanding that there just aren't any more chips on the table for Hillary Clinton to win.

Like I said, it's not very interesting but I'm not trying to sell advertising time or space based on the illusion that there's any doubt as to where this thing is going.

Pity Pat

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 22:40:22 EDT

I have concluded that:

America needs to continue to have a conversation about race.
The conversation does not need to be led by Pat Buchanan.

From Pat Buchanan's "A Brief for Whitey":

Barack says we need to have a conversation about race in America. Fair enough.

But this time, it has to be a two-way conversation. White America needs to be heard from, not just lectured to.

This time, the Silent Majority needs to have its convictions, grievances and demands heard. And among them are these:

First, America has been the best country on earth for black folks. It was here that 600,000 black people, brought from Africa in slave ships, grew into a community of 40 million, were introduced to Christian salvation, and reached the greatest levels of freedom and prosperity blacks have ever known.

Wright ought to go down on his knees and thank God he is an American.

Second, no people anywhere has done more to lift up blacks than white Americans. Untold trillions have been spent since the ’60s on welfare, food stamps, rent supplements, Section 8 housing, Pell grants, student loans, legal services, Medicaid, Earned Income Tax Credits and poverty programs designed to bring the African-American community into the mainstream.

Wow.

A free boat ride from Africa and then a near-century of separate-but-equal accommodations in Jim Crow's America.

The way Pat describes it, it's hard to see what the fuss is all about. Maybe if Irish Catholics had arrived in America under the same cushy circumstances, Mr. Buchanan would look at forced immigration to the New World a little differently.

h/t: c&l

Two Observations on Religion and Politics

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 17:25:47 EDT

Just a couple thoughts I had this morning on religion and politics and the difference between two candidates.

It has been suggested that Barack Obama's "pastor" problem with Jeremiah Wright doesn't seen to want to away. At the same time, mainstream media doesn't seem to be interested in devoting much attention to John McCain's own association with John Hagee.

Reverend Hagee has said many things in the past that are just as controversial as any pronouncement by Jeremiah Wright, including the charge that the Catholic Church is "the great whore" and a "false cult system".

I've got two theories about this apparent double-standard:

John Hagee is not John McCain's pastor and so the connection between them is not as clear as Obama's association with Reverend Wright. As far as I can tell, John McCain's church affiliation is with the North Phoenix Baptist Church but he self-identifies as an Episcopalian. It also seems to me that religion has never played a significant role in defining John McCain over the years and so he gets a free pass on that issue.
The MSM realizes that John McCain probably doesn't take Hagee or his eschatology very seriously and that he's really just using him to turn out evangelical Christian voters in November.

Another theory may be that McCain serves the MSM free barbecue and the MSM likes free barbecue.

A More Perfect Union

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 21:03:35 EDT

When I heard that candidate Barack Obama was going to make a major speech today on race in America, I thought to myself that if anybody could pull it off successfully, it would be Barack Obama.

I wasn't able to watch the speech live today but I read the text this afternoon and just finished watching a replay of it on YouTube.

I think Obama did a good job with appearing sanctimonious or pandering to any particular ethnic group. Obama's story about his which grandmother harboring racist thoughts reminded me of my own family members expressed prejudice toward people who didn't look like us.

They were otherwise good people and I couldn't bring myself to stop loving them because of that particular character flaw.

As Obama said, we can either keep making race and religion an issue in American politics and imposing an informal religious test to candidate, or we can move on to something more substantial.

If anything, perhaps Obama will finally convince the 13% of Americans who still think he's a Muslim that he's actually a Christian.

Good Weekend for Barack Obama

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 08:42:04 EDT

Forget about the flap over Barack Obama's pastor -- the candidate had a really good weekend where it matters.

Iowa completed delegate selection on Saturday and nine new delegates have been awarded to Obama while Hillary Clinton actually lost one. These were delegates originally won by John Edwards.

There are a lot of delegate counts floating around but I've been using the one posted at RealClear Politics and that count currently looks like this: Obama (+135)

Pledged: 1415
Superdelegates: 213
Total: 1628
Needed to nominate: 397 (2,025)

Clinton

Pledged: 1245
Superdelegates: 248
Total: 1493
Needed to nominate: 532 (2,025)

Superdelegates: 334 remaining of 795 The Obama Obama campaign projects that of the remaining 566 pledged delegates, about 303 will got to Obama and 296 to Hillary Clinton.

I only mention this because those projections have been pretty accurate so far. It also means that of the remaining 334 superdelegates, Obama only needs 94 to secure the nomination.

The two campaigns will be discussing the status of Florida and Michigan's delegates this week but it appears to me that they are becoming increasingly less significant.

Casey at the Bat

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:55:47 EDT

Hey, look, my friend and Lame-o Weblog commenter Shaun Casey was on Good Morning America today.

Nice job, Shaun.

He's no lightweight, Chris...

h/t: gkb

Mississippi Voting

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 11 Mar 2008 17:58:09 EDT

It's hardly worth holding a watch party for one state but I'm going to be watching the returns anyway.

Mississippi Democrats are voting for delegates to the national convention today -- polls close at 8:00 pm EST.

The Obama campaign has projected that it will win 20 of 33 pledged delegates tonight and the few polls from Mississippi give Barack Obama a 53-38% advantage over Hillary Clinton.

About 36% of the voters in Mississippi are African-American which in turn constitutes over half of the voters in the Democratic primary.

The conventional thinking is that the state's demographics work to Obama's favor and explains why there has been so little polling.

Following the Mississippi primary, both candidates will basically move to Pennsylvania for seven weeks in the run-up to the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.

If the Obama strategy holds, a 7-delegate net victory in Mississippi will offset a loss in Pennsylvania.

I’ve got Obama 56.5 - Clinton 43.5 tonight.

Bad HRC, Good HRC

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 10 Mar 2008 09:54:10 EDT

I'm not sure if Hillary Clinton ever wonders why so many Americans find her to be a polarizing character.

I think it's because of things like this:

"Kitchen sink HRC": Barack Obama is unqualified to be commander-in-chief.

"Non-kitchen sink HRC": Barack Obama would make a great vice-commander-in-chief.

Wyoming Delivers

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 15:34:18 EST

It appears that Obama will win the Wyoming caucuses 7-5 on delegates with one additional delegate to be awarded in May.

There's a good break down on how the delegates will be awarded here.

As close as this race is, I'll take any victory that nets 2-3 delegates.

So, "Way to go, Wyoming Democrats".

Let's start another winning streak.

On to Mississippi.

Whither Wyoming

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 08 Mar 2008 13:22:24 EST

Wyoming has 59,000 registered Democrats and they'll select 12 delegates to the Democratic National Convention today in the Wyoming caucuses.

Even without the benefit of polling, Barack Obama is considered the favorite.

And when you consider how tight this race is, an 8-4 split on delegates would have a considerable impact.

The delegate count for today is:

Obama 1581 (+121) (includes 210 Superdelegates)
Clinton 1460 (includes 242 Superdelegates)

Caucus results will be available here throughout the day.

Final results could come as late at 10:00 MST tonight.

What a DIfference a Day Makes

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:04:46 EST

I received this e-mail from my buddy Jack Shock tonight.

Jack calls North Little Rock his hometown:

For the unitiated and unfamiliar on background... Mike Huckabee lives next door to my childhood friend in a neighborhood called Indian Hills, just off of John F. Kennedy Blvd. in North Little Rock, my hometown.

To get to Indian Hills, one would take the McCain exit from the interstate.

The major shopping intersection in NLR is at JFK and McCain.

So now it makes sense when I say this.

Mike Huckabee. Yesterday... invoking JFK and talking about McCain.

Today... shopping at the Kroger at the corner of JFK and McCain.

Super Tuesday, Jr. Post Mortem

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 05 Mar 2008 09:23:01 EST

If you watched the morning shows this morning, you may be under the impression that Hillary Clinton secured the Democratic nomination and is just waiting for Barack Obama to concede the race to her.

At least that was the impression I had.

Once again, I'm not sure how anyone could consider losing a 20-point lead in Texas and Ohio a "come-back" for HRC but that's the way I would spin it too if I was HRC. G

ranted, things didn't go as well as the Obama campaign would have liked last night but (as predicted) Obama is still ahead in elected delegates. When all the counting is done, HRC's net gain in elected delegates from the four races yesterday will be between 6-12.

Obama's failure to close the deal may be the story today but the mathematical probability of Obama securing the nomination are just as good as they were yesterday.

In fact, if you look at the Obama game plan, things are going pretty much as projected by Obama and company. The key now is to keep raising money, collecting endorsements, and avoid being bullied out of the race.

It's seven weeks until the Pennsylvania's Democratic primary and six months until the convention. In between there are a lot more delegates to elect.

The projected delegate count for today is:

Obama 1542 (includes 202 Superdelegates)
Clinton 1447 (includes 241 Superdelegates)

Super Tuesday, Jr.

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 11:39:37 EST

"Well, it all comes down to this... [insert name of state(s) here]"

How many times have I heard that in the last eight weeks?

I got back in town just in time to re-acclimate myself to what's left of the race for the Democratic nomination and I'm going to do a mini-watch party at the house tonight.

I'm going to stick my neck out and call tonight's results from Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont a draw -- Barack Obama wins Texas and Vermont while Hillary Clinton carries Rhode Island and Ohio. It appears as if early voting in Texas helps Obama while the bad weather in Ohio helps HRC.

So, it's a push.

For Obama however, this is as good as a win because it adds more delegates to his growing lead over HRC (now at 1392-1279) and it means that there will be 370 fewer delegates on the table for either candidate to win. What HRC needs tonight is a victory in the neighborhood of 60% in each of the four March 4 primary states and she's not going to get it.

Just a few other things I read last night that fall into the category of reading tea leaves:

A leaked e-mail from the Clinton campaign would seem to indicate that HRC's team has started the post-election finger pointing a little early.
Early voting ("no-fault" absentee voting) has been used effectively by the Obama campaign at the end of his rallies in Texas to get voters to the poll on the day when they are most fired up by voting rather than waiting for election day. These are votes that would not be counted in the most recent polls from Texas.
"Huffpollstrology" is yet another way of picking winners and losers on election day that combines all of the advantages of polling and pseudo-science. The bottom line is that Obama and Paul (both Leos) should consider relaxing with bath oils and McCain and Huckabee (both Virgos) are encouraged to look into networking. HRC's horoscope (Scorpio) almost makes a believer out of ME.

Vote for David Manes - Best Student Political Blog (Democrat)

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 15:49:49 EST

I'm not sure how much this will help, but one of my students has political blog and he's finalist for a $2,000 scholarship from College Scholarships.org.

David is a HUGE Barack Obama supporter so I'm asking all of you who read what I post here on occasion to vote for him today.

He's up against a Repulbiican and an Independent blog -- so we can make a political thing out of this if that's what it takes.

David writes Political Cartel with a couple of other students at Harding University. We don't have too many Democrats here, so this would be a big achievement for our College Democrats.

Voting will be closed on March 16th at midnight PST.

You can cast your vote here.

Happy Birthday, Peace Sign

Dr. Mark Elrod — Sat, 23 Feb 2008 10:07:48 EST

Today is the 50th birthday of one of the most recognized international symbols in history: the peace sign.

From Democracy Now!

Over the past five decades the peace sign has become one of the world’s enduring icons. The original peace sign was developed in 1958 by a British textile designer and conscientious objector named Gerald Holtom. He created the symbol by combining the semaphore letters N and D, for nuclear disarmament. On Feb. 21, 1958 the symbol was accepted by the Direct Action Committee Against Nuclear War. The symbol soon began to be used in anti-nuclear protests across Britain and then spread across the globe.

Give it a chance...

Indiana We're (Almost) All For You

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 16:06:39 EST

If Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul aren't doing anything important for the next few days, they may want to look into whether or not John McCain is legally entitled to be on the ballot in the GOP primary in Indiana.

Indiana voter rb mentioned this situation on the McCain post earlier today on my other blog and linked to this story and the DailyKos has most of the details here.

The crux of the matter is that to be on the ballot, a candidate needs 500 signatures in each congressional district and McCain's campaign came up short in the Indiana 4th. In spite of this, local election officials are going to certify him for the ballot anyway.

Granted, Huckabee has said that he "didn't major in math, he majored in miracles" but I think that even the most mathmatically-challenged of us will admit that neither 491 nor 496 equals 500.

Between this and that other McCain story, we've had about as good a preview of Republican governance as you could want: Lack of popular support followed by attempts to manipulate elections, incompetence covered up by cronyism, and politicians in bed with lobbyists in both the legislative and literal senses.

Seems like we had a problem like this in Dade County, Florida a few years back. Presumably, signatures are far easier to count than hanging chads.

h/t: rb & dk

John McCain's Lobbyist Problem

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 08:49:30 EST

I suspect that the story that most people are going to be talking about today does not involve the Searcy, Arkansas police log...

A few weeks ago, when Republican Mitt Romney "suspended" his presidential campaign several people asked me why he chose to "suspend" rather than "quit" the Republican race.

At the time, I suspected that it had to do with Romney's anticipation that "something" might would force McCain out of the race and that the "something" would involve McCain's health.

Likewise, Mike Huckabee has been hanging around in spite of the obvious fact that he can't possibly win the Republican nomination.

It would appear now that maybe both Romney and McCain (but not ME) knew that the New York Times had a story that Senator McCain and an "improper" relationship with a lobbyist. I

t has been reported that the NYT has been sitting on the story since December. It's not clear from the NYT story whether or not the relationship was of a romantic or political nature but all parties have denied that there was anything improper about it.

But, there are several different levels to this story

Is there more to the story than just what has been reported in the NYT?
Why did the NYT chose to run the story now, when John McCain seems on the verge of winning the GOP nomination? (Possibly because they were about to be scooped by another publication but I'm sure there are other factors)
Does any of this really matter in terms of who's going to be the next president?
Who is more privately elated with this news -- the political right or left?

For my part, I think it's a rather boorish story that doesn't really change my overall impression of John McCain. He's always seemed like an honorable person to me but I don't think he would be interested in teaching a Sunday school class at my church. We also have different impressions of the war in Iraq and about 300 other issues.

But I think where this story really hurts Senator McCain is where he has staked his political career -- as a straight-shooter who owes nothing to Washington, DC interest groups.

So, its a ten-year old story about alleged hypocrisy by a politician.

That hardly seems like front-page fare to ME but that's easy for me to say. I don't have to make a living based on how quickly I can report a story.

McCain is going to hold a press conference at 9:00 am EST on this story -- I suspect that his response to the NYT's specific allegations will determine how long the story will stay in the news and how much it will hurt him with voters.

Update (post-press conference): Senator McCain stated that nothing in the NYT story was true and that nobody on his staff ever brought his relationship with Vicki Iseman to his personal attention. He described Ms. Iseman as a friend but nothing more than that.

Obama and Legislative Accomplishments

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 11:39:59 EST

Like me, you may have cringed last night at Kirk Watson's (D-TX) response to MSNBC's Chris Matthews' question to name some of Barack Obama's legislative accomplishments.

I appreciated Keith Olberman's response to Matthews: "Can you ANY accomplishments of the US Senate in the last two years?"

But as Matthews implied, voters deserve more than that.

So, it's a fair question and one that a better spokesperson should have been able to answer.

If I get the question today, I'll say:

In his first year in the U.S. Senate, Barack Obama authored 152 bills and co-sponsored another 427. These included:

The Coburn-Obama Government Transparency Act of 2006 (became law)
The Lugar-Obama Nuclear Non-proliferation and Conventional Weapons Threat Reduction Act (became law)
The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act (passed the Senate)
The 2007 Government Ethics Bill (became law)
The Protection Against Excessive Executive Compensation Bill (in committee)

Since entering the U.S. Senate, Senator Obama has written 890 bills and co-sponsored another 1096.

For more on Senator Obama's legislative successes, see: factcheck.barackobama.com

Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

They're Walkin'

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 09:01:00 EST

I don't know how you spent your Tuesday but these kids walked 7.3 miles to vote in the Texas primary.

This is the kind of thing you would normally associate with a less-developed country that is just beginning to experiment with democratic elections.

I love this kind of stuff.

PRAIRIE VIEW — More than 1,000 Prairie View A&M students turned out on Tuesday to march in support of their voting rights.

The marchers said Prairie View student voting rights have been suppressed for decades in Waller County.

The protesters carried "Register to Vote" signs and wore black shirts with the slogan, "It is 2008 and we will vote.

"I was angry after registering to vote in the 2006 election only to be turned away at the voting booth," said sophomore Dee Dee Williams. The march began at 9 a.m. as the protesters left the campus on the seven-mile journey to the Waller County Courthouse in Hempstead.

Students, local leaders, civil rights activists and elected officials took part in the march. Police estimated the total crowd at about 2,000 people. "These are wonderful kids. They are making a statement, until they spoke up there was only one early voting place in the entire county. They spoke up but everyone is benefiting from what they are doing,'' said Prairie View Mayor Frank Johnson.

Last week, under pressure from the federal government, Waller County officials added three temporary polling places for early voting, ditching plans to open only one voting site in advance of the March 4 primary.

The Justice Department questioned the county's January decision to cut early-voting sites from a half dozen throughout the county to just one in Hempstead. The county's about-face came on the same day that critics announced a mass march to the polls next week.

Early voting began Tuesday.

Waller County has faced numerous lawsuits involving voting rights in the past 30 years and remains under investigation by the Texas Attorney General's Office based on complaints by local black leaders. Those allegations, concerning the November 2006 general election, related to voting machine failures, inadequate staffing and long delays for voting results.

Whether you're 18 or 80, this is going to be a different kind of election.

It's been a long time since America saw a "movement" like the one we're seeing in 2008.

h/t: crooks & liars

Everybody Hearts Obama

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 22:52:51 EST

At least in Wisconsin.

The only thing that I can relate exit polls to are my yearly teacher evaluations.

If I ever get one that looks like this, I think I'll just go ahead and retire.

Whoa...

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 12 Feb 2008 07:23:20 EST

From This Modern World.

Why they hate him Imagine how you’d feel [Democrat] if Joe Lieberman had just captured the Democratic nomination. That’s how the far right sees McCain.

And just to frame this properly for those of you who don't know how Democrats feel about Senator Lieberman, he's considering a visit to the Republican national convention in St. Paul this summer.

"Hate" is too strong a word to describe my feelings toward any human being but this helps me understand a little more clearly how GOP stalwarts feel about their nominee.

I guess one man's maverick is another man's turncoat.

Real Unclear Politics

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 06:13:43 EST

Looks to ME like there are two candidates left in the Democratic race for president and the one who polls better against the GOP nominee is the not the favorite among Democrats.

But hey, we're Democrats... we once held a convention that went 103 ballots. And then we nominated a guy who got beat by Calvin Coolidge.

But never fear... we'll have this thing figured out in about three months or so.

Polling data from ClearPolitics.com

Super Tuesday Coverage on KTWN Searcy, Arkansas

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 07 Feb 2008 06:16:23 EST

The local (Searcy) TV station covered the Barack Obama Super Tuesday watch party held on the Harding campus last night.

Fortunately, we had a couple of articulate and photogenic students available for interviews.

It was a great night and we know there are more to come!

Wow. That Was Fun

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 09:31:42 EST

I got everything I wanted out of Super Tuesday.

I spent about four hours watching the returns with 40 or so Barrack Obama supporter, cheering every state that went for Obama with the kind of enthusiasm that Harding University students normally reserve for the Rhodes Field House.

I wish we could have finished the evening by cheering the results from Missouri together but we victimized by another unusual feature of our campus -- midnight curfew.

As far as I know, "Bisons for Obama" was the only political organization to hold a watch party on campus last night. If you don't think that's a little weird, you don't know the Harding demographic. But as I've said on several occasions over the last few weeks, there's a shift in partisanship here that is noteworthy.

But don't get too excited -- I'm the sponsor and I was the only faculty member who was there.

More importantly, I'm encouraged by the results from last night. According to MSNBC this morning, the current delegate count stands at 1140-1150 for Hillary Clinton and 1070-1080 for Barack Obama. This weekend, the race moves to the caucus states of Washington, Nebraska and Maine where Obama should do well and Louisiana holds its primary on Tuesday.

I think things are looking good, particularly in terms of money and momentum for Obama.

Congratulations to Todd for winning the "Hillary share of the Arkansas vote" poll. Todd predicted 64% for HRC and the actual tally looks to be about 72%. This may come down through the day -- the Arkansas count has been complicated by bad weather and power outages.

Looks like I finished second with 62%.

Welcome to Super Fat Tuesday

Dr. Mark Elrod — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 07:46:36 EST

A couple of months ago, a Republican friend at Harding told me that it looked like his party's nomination was going to be decided at their convention this summer.

I told him I didn't think that was likely, based on the recent historical pattern of Republicans eventually getting their house in order and nominating the person who has been working for the nomination for the longest time.

By this time tomorrow that person will be John McCain.

In the Democratic race, I wouldn't be surprised that after one hundred stump speeches and millions of dollars spent on TV buys and internal polls that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be separated by about fifty delegates either way.

This makes the Democratic party's Super Delegates even more important and gives the potential endorsements by Edwards, Richardson and Al Gore even more value.

Following the pattern we've seen in the first few primaries, I would expect to see some new endorsements for both candidates announced by both campaigns early tomorrow.

However (and I'm probably spinning for my guy here) Barack will win tonight because he's been chasing HRC since New Hampshire and he's closed the race. I'm still not sure if we'll have to wait until the convention to pick a nominee but whether or not Obama wins or keeps it close tonight, he will have defeated the entire purpose of Super Tuesday by keeping the race competitive through February.

On top of that, it looks like Obama is winning the fund-raising race.

So -- John McCain gets separation today while Obama and HRC slog on.

Your mid-week Sign of the Impending Apocalypse: There's a Barack Obama watch party on the Harding campus tonight at an undisclosed location (e-mail for the location and password).

But if Obama wins California, you'll know where we are from all of the cheering.

Okay... Now Even I'm Suspicious

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 16:52:05 EST

Please stop, Hillary.

One of the things I've always appreciated about you is your dignity.

I was willing to give you a pass on the day before the New Hampshire primary because I know that political campaigns take an emotional toll on candidates.

But you're only making it easier for people who really don't like you and then I have to listen to them talk about it.

This is not something that people want to see from the person who has access to the nuclear launch codes.

Note to My Conservative Friends

Dr. Mark Elrod — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 06:27:58 EST

Please keep calling Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) "Juan McCain".

As a Democrat, I see it as very helpful in courting Latino voters.

By calling Senator McCain "Juan" you are implying that if your name is "Juan" there's something wrong with you or that you don't belong in this country.

And if you want to make a mental giant like Glen Beck your standard-bearer on this, be my guest.

Personally, I think Juan is a beautiful name.

And I think that there may actually be more Juans in the world than Johns. And some of them vote right here in the Estados Unitos.

On behalf of myself and a lot of other people, thank-you (o muchas gracias).

Harding University Straw Poll and Voter's Forum

Dr. Mark Elrod — Fri, 01 Feb 2008 09:00:45 EST

Among the many things that I never expected to see on the campus of Harding University is a political event event where Republicans and Democrats were represented in equal numbers.

I think it ranks right up there with a calliope in the Benson Auditorium.

Last night, students from the campus chapter of Roosevelt Institution held a "Kick-off" to the 2008 Arkansas Presidential Primary. For a cold, wet January night the attendance was respectable (about 100) and seemed to be evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans from the campus and the Searcy community.

The Roosevelt students had invited the respective campaigns to attend but it appeared to me that the only candidate who was specifically represented was Ron Paul. Other groups included the Arkansas Young Democrats and representatives from the White County Democratic and Republican parties.

Kudos to the students of the Roosevelt Institution for putting together a world-class event that everyone in attendance benefited from.

I think this is going to put them on the map as a Harding organization. The evening concluded with a debate on the health care crisis in America between Michael Crouch from the Harding College Republicans and David Manes of the College Democrats.

At the end of the debate, the parties announced the results of a straw poll taken earlier in the evening. For the Republicans (48 votes):

Mike Huckabee – 15 (31%)
John McCain – 14 (29%)
Ron Paul – 11 (23%)
Mitt Romney – 8 (17%)

For the Democrats (44 votes)

Barack Obama – 37 (84%)
Hillary Clinton – 7 (16%)

Overall (92 votes)

Barack Obama - 37 votes (40%)
Mike Huckabee - 15 votes (16.3%)
John McCain - 14 (15.2%)

Granted, the GOP vote was split four-ways but the fact that Barack Obama (D) won the overall tally in a straw poll Harding University by a convincing margin is pretty amazing.

Obama Conversations

Dr. Mark Elrod — Thu, 31 Jan 2008 11:09:36 EST

One of my students wrote this story on his blog today. It's pretty funny:

This past weekend a great group of Harding students were able to go down to Little Rock to Gusano's Pizza for a Barack Obama watch party there. It was fun to see peoples reactions when we came in wearing our Harding t-shirts and seeing us there.
The room was really great to be in. There were hippies, college kids, old black ladies, white collar white guys. They were a blast to be around and talk with and hang out with, and with results like these who couldn't be excited? That night was encouraging.
Monday I was in Goodwill looking for books (as par usual). Once I went to the counter the woman checking people out was talking to a friend there. She said, "You know Charline, I don't even follow politics. You know what I do, Charline? I just walk into the voting booth and I say, 'Dear Jesus, please tell me who to vote for.' and he tells me who, every time he just puts a name into my head and says 'Vote for him.' Jesus tells me who to vote for every year."
So I walked up to the counter, set my things down and said, "Hi my name is Coleman and Jesus told me to tell you to vote for Barack Obama."
She stopped and looked at me and said, "Like hell I will! That guy is not running this country on my vote!"

So that settles it. Jesus is a Republican. He just doesn't know it.

Exit Edwards

Dr. Mark Elrod — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 11:31:01 EST

John Edwards will end his presidential campaign today.

I like John Edwards -- he's probably my second-favorite candidate in the race. Unfortunately, in the 2008 Democratic primaries he was just another white guy who wanted to be president. It was speculated that Edwards would (as promised) stay in the race until the convention.

Now the speculation turns to who he will endorse (if anybody) and what kind of deal might be cut for that endorsement (has anyone ever run for vice-president after losing the first time?)

According to aides, Edwards will not endorse either Clinton or Obama today and has no plans to weigh in for either candidate in the immediate future.

My personally feeling is that his withdraw hurts Obama more than Clinton but it's hard to say.

It will be interesting to see the first polls from February 5 primary states that do not include Edwards' name.