kenny odubeko's Blog

is obama ego tripping?

kenny — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 13:00:51 EDT

one of the headline on cnn ticker was obama claiming that the odds for him winning are very good. Now he's facts are right being that he has a sixty some percent chance of winning, but we're not dealing with statistics or trade ins, we're dealing with real votes which could be affected by perceptions. A sense of pride could influence these perceptions.

I will strongly warn the Sen. to be careful of what he says from now till the election day. it really wasnt the smartedt thing when he is at the point in time where he is most vulnerable to accusations of pride and over confidence, this actually refers to his just concluded oversees trip which was a huge success, but could also be taken by independents that matter as a sign of pride and presumptiousness. sen. Obama, you've got to be very careful. What happened to you claiming that you're the underdog in this race? Hillary's race should be a big example for you and shouldn't be forgotten so soon. Let me also point out that the statement was followed by him saying that it would be very difficult still. Not everyone will be patient enough or tolerant to read or hear it through.

A Chuck Hagel Running Mate

kenny — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:42:53 EDT

Over the past few days, we've heared that Sens. Chuck Hagel and Jack Reed will be accompanying Barack Obama on his foreing trip. Amid that information, we've speculations that Hagel might just be Obama's running mate. The chances of that happening doesnt realy look pretty. I really dont know how democrats will take it if it happened. I believe it would anger the far left of his party. I'm also not so sure that Sen. Hagel can put his homestate of Nebraska into play or even other states in the region. I also dont see how Obama can argue in favor of Hagels political ideologies to at least make him acceptable to the democratic fold because i will think the only agreements the both of them have is on Iraq and some other foreign affairs matters.For the pros, i think it also won't be a bad idea. The choice will re-emphasise Obama's core message of working across party lines and bringing unity, and there could be no other better way of proving that. I think the most compelling argument for Hagel being on that ticket will be that he brings the national security and foreign affairs cred that Obama needs badly. He also will be able to bring those in the middle to be more drawn to Obama by providing a little more reassurance.

Overall, i dont know how it will work out, having two people from different parties on the same ticket. The most tempting question to me is, God forbid, somethinh happens to Obama, and a republican takes over the white house, owouldn't it work that way.

Obama's Foreign Trip

kenny — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 14:26:50 EDT

The news media will be saturated with Obama's visit to Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Palestine, Germany, Britain and france. I think this foreign trip is long overdue and there could also be no better time to embark on one. For all, it should help him shore up is national security and foreign affairs credentials, eventhough i don't know how much a visit does compared to steady briefings and information gatherings.

Over the last week, we have seen a tightening of the polls, most especially the daily tracking polls from Rasmussen and a slight advantage in Obama's favour in the Gallup polls. I would hope this foreign trip would give him that well needed boost as we saw for McCains numbers during the prolonged democratic nomination battle as long as nothing negative occurs or is reported. Personally, i think it will be a successful one, and i have no doubt in my mind.

I will also advise the Obama campaign to do everything in moderation and to extinguish every sense of cockiness. More specifically, choosing speech sites or venues. They should remember that their candidate is not yet the president and should be there as a candidate just to listen for the most part. Obama himself has said he is going to do just that and we can trust him on that.

On Obama's visit to palestine, i think it's a wise idea and shouldn't hurt him amid reports of concern that Obama might appear to be appealing to Hamas and associates. For one, President Mahmmoud Abbas isn't a Hammas member eventhough he happens to share the government with them.I think strong leaders should be willing to talk to both their friends and adversaries. I also believe McCain made a blunder when he declined Abbas's invitation on his trip to Israel the last time. You cannot be a fair judge if you don't appeal to both sides, so if there's anything we've learnt from that incident, We know McCain might just pander to Israel. Even a sizeable amount of Israeli's seek negotiation with the palestinians amid equity and fairness. That is what a fair broker should represent.

On the situation in Iraq, we know the McCain campaign cannot wait for Obama to get there and give his take on the visit. They are already ready to label him as a flip-flopper or as one who wont listen to his commanders based on their advise.

Four long months

kenny — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 22:53:07 EDT

We're only just wrapping up the first week of july, it seems like November is not just going to come, obviously, it would, just cant wait. Maybe both campaigns are are hoping they have more time on their hands to do some damage. Well, all i can is that its a long time from now and it's a short time from now for those running the campaigns. I just hope my candidate wins on the 4th/ 5th..no florida/ohio heartbreaks

obama's choice for veep

kenny — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 18:05:49 EDT

i must confess that i love commenting on this.digging names out and seeing how they fit into the picture. You might call it a jigsaw puzzle.

Pretty much, obama's choice would depend on various factors which weight differently and at different points in time. So maybe my job is to make the case for everyone mentioned here.

Hillary clinton? It's nice to know that the whole talk about having hillary on the ticket being inevitable has cooled off a little bit.We can make a case for her being on the ticket though. i think she bolsters Barack's standing with core democrats which he has already, most importantly, i think she helps him with the women and the blue collar vote vote which is a very important voting group.The downside to her choice is that the support from 'independents' that Obama has might drop. This is not something he can afford to happen to him because McCain appeals to them a great deal. As for hillary being divisive, and her ablity to drive republicans or anti-clintons to the poll shouldnt be bought. They would most likely come out and vote against Obama anyway. But overall, i'll score Obama a 6 out of 10 if he were to pick her.

John Edwards? i think he is an attractive figure, but won't necessarily be the right choice. Chief among those reasons is the fact that he's been there before and didn't win. I think his inability to win North carolina is a big disadvantage. Obviously, Obama should be focusing on someone who is likely to win a state that he wont win otherwise. His choice would get a score of 4 out of 10

Jim Webb? i dont think this would be a bad choice either. Obama has shown considerable weakness in the appalachian region and it seems Webb would be able to offset some of the deficit the presumptive nominee seems to have. Most importantly, he would help bolster his national security credentials which would be at the top of the list for voters this fall.Jim Webb can also help with carrying the commonwealth of Virginia which is a toss up state this election. He definitely has his downside also, he seems to have a complicated relationship with women voters as a result of comments made in the past. He also lacks executive experience which Obama lacks. But i'll give his choice a 6.5 out of 10.

Tim Kaine? i think he'll be a bright choice also. He'll bring the executive experience eventhough he hasn't been the Governor of the commonwealth state of Virginia.I also think he'll help with blue collar workers given the region of the country he is from. He would almost definitely turn the state into a blue one come this fall if he is the choice. It's also very important to know that Tim Kaine was one of the early supporters of Obama. The downside could be that he hasn't been a Governor for that long which could aslo be an advantage also because it leaves less room for scrutiny on his records. Maybe that shouldn't be an advantage and he also lacks the national security that is paramount for Obama. Overall, i'll give him 6/10

Wesley Clark? i personally think he would be the best choice for Obama, but coming out of his criticism of McCain's qualification of being president, he has come under intense fire. I still feel he is a very bright choice. He is a retired General,who oversaw NATO and also has a lot of decorations. So he'll help Obama on the issue of national security. He might also help in the state of Arkansas, although i doubt his ability to accomplish that. He would probably need the support of the Clintons. The downside is that he hasn't held any elected political office. I'll score him a 7/10

Kathleen sebelius? i think she would also be an exciting running mate. She could help in the midwest and also with women's vote and also make the historic candidacy more candidate. She could specifically help in the state of Ohio where here father was Governor in the 70s. The downside would be that it would look like a slap to Hillary. People would ask the question, why not Hillary if he had to pick a woman. It's also very unlikely the Governor can turn her deeply red state to blue. i'll give her a 5.5/10.

Joe Bidden? He should be able to give that national security bite to the Obama campaign. For thing for sure is that Joe is a very smart candidate who has been in the senate for over 30 years. The downside to it is that he doesnt bring any state that Obama can't win without him. i also think he gets too professorial when campaigning which isnt always the wisest thing to do. I'll give him a 6/10.

A day to remember

kenny — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 17:09:56 EDT

On a rainy tuesday evening, i got off school in so much earnest just waiting to see the one man who was the rave of the moment. The one man who represented change and had changed the discourse of American politics. It really was a historic day and i wasn't going to miss it for anything. I was supposed to work that day, but i couldn't miss the event for anything in the world. And so i got to the xcel energy center around 3pm, joining the long line. Seeing those excited and elated faces was just worth it. We sat and chatted for about four hours while we formed a queue. People talking about why they support his candidacy and how historic the event was. I recall checking my PDA for any major breaking news saying that Barack Obama would be the presumptive democratic nominee as a result of reaching enough delegates to clinch the democratic nomination.. it didn't take too long before the news came flying in that B.O would be the first African American president nominee for a major political party. i felt really accomplished. At that point, i recalled having an arguement with my brother about 8 months ago about the chances of a black man being the nominee. He actually believed it wasn't possible and said it never was going to happen. I really couldn't blame his cynicsm, because he had every reason to be. Good enough, he was there with me, a huge cynic. I only just had to tell him he was so wrong. We eventually got into the arena with mamoths of heads. it was like a political mecca of some sort, i'm not actually equating the significance but expressing the feling of how it felt. We were entertained to some campaign videos and most noticeably was the 'yes we can' video by W.I.L.L.I.A.M and crew. B.O and michelle Obama were ushered in by a U of M professor whose son serves in Iraq. You really might want to know how it felt like seeing this man, my very first impression was that he was skinny and kind of lanky and also overwhelmed by the cheers of the screaming crowd. it took a while to calm everyone down, but he eventually did. As usual, he gave his stump speech which moved me. i felt like i was called to a course. It was a day to remember, one you can look back and say,"i was there when America turned a page in her history".

the world's hope

kenny — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 16:19:52 EDT

is he the world's hope? or is he just another politician? is he another JFK? or is he a mirror image of bill clinton, would he be revered like the mandela's, gandhi's, or the FDR's of the world?, i guess it's too early to tell. But what i can tell you today is that we have someone who is special and i am very glad and excited to be a part of history. i was more excited to be in Minnesota when he gave his victory speech. i actually called in at work to make it. i wasn't going to miss it for anything in the world. i saw them (barack and michelle) a little after 9 and i felt chills flowing down my spine. it felt good.Reason? i can't explain.
Some might say we are followers of him, calling his mission a course and might make it sound all about him. i disagree, i think he's just a different man who is running a historic race and who might eventually be the first African American president of the U.S.
As someone who hails from Nigeria, i can tell you there are fliers and posters of this historic candidate as if he is running for office in Nigeria. This doesnt just apply to just Nigeria, same applies to many other African countries, but it's not limited to. Polls from other countries shows that Barack enjoys a higher favorability rating than McCain. With the negative impression other citizens of other foreign countries, it's remarkable that he has such positive favorable ratings. We await his foreign trip this month, it's going to be an impressive one.
Let's welcome the world's hope whole heartedly, and hopefully, he lives up to it. i think he can

independent southerners

kenny — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 14:36:58 EDT

Has anyone noticed that the 4th of july that precedes a general election year has an extra bite to it... wow. Barack would be in MT today with his family today. i like the idea that he is putting MT into play considering the fact that its a deep red state. i guess dividends are paying off already as was indicated in the rasmussen report MT state poll released yesterday indicated that Barack was up by 5 pts. that is good news for a start. my instinct tells me he would win MT and some other historically red states along with blue states.Red states like virginia, colorado, new-mexico, may be nevada, the least likely being Georgia. As tempting it is for me to say that, he'll likely face more odds in GA, reason being that the south is known to vote across racial lines. if he can appeal to at least 5% more whites, he'd be successful along with the increment in the voter turnout. one key thing is also how Bob barr performs, if get at least 9% of the GA votes which is very likely, he might just be responsible for obama winning GA and eventually the white house.i'm not trying to demean the vote of every American, i'm just saying one man's action might just tilt the race. take a journey down on memory lane when we could possibly say that Nader cost Gore the white house by taking votes away from him in FL. if things remain the way they are right now, i think Barack would turn between 3-4 southern states to blue,and also win OH.