The Reformed Republican - Tracking The Daily Battles

Survey - Health Plans Deliver The WORST Experience

John Nail — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:59:02 EDT

And now from Forrester Research, Health plans rate the lowest of any industry:

In Forrester’s 2008 Customer Experience Index (CxPi), we ranked 113 companies across 12 industries. I recently published a snapshot of the health plan industry looking at the results from the eight plans on the list (Aetna, Anthem (BCBS), CIGNA, Kaiser, Medicaid, Medicare, TriCare, and United Healthcare). Here’s some of what we found:
Experiences are “very poor” and getting worse. As a group, the eight health plans ended up with a “very poor” rating of 51%; the lowest score of any of the 12 industries we examined. Making matters worse, the industry dropped three percentage points from the 2007 CxPi results.
Kaiser led the pack. With an “okay” score of 70%, Kaiser led all health plans. All of the other plans ended up with ratings of either “poor” or “very poor.”
Medicaid is as bad as it gets. With a terrible rating of 38%, Medicaid was the lowest scoring plan. It also ended up in next to last place across all 113 organizations in our rankings.
Only Kaiser improved. When we compared the 2008 results with those from 2007, only Kaiser showed an improvement. CIGNA and Medicaid, on the other hand, declined the most.
Some big shifts in CxPi components. There were five double-digit changes in the scores for the three underlying elements of the CxPi: Kaiser’s improvement in being easy to work with and enjoyability, Anthem’s decline in enjoyability, and both CIGNA’s and Medicaid’s drop in being easy to work with.

The bottom line: Put customer experience on the health care reform agenda.

Read the whole survey here.

How Pharma and Insurance Intend to Kill the Public Option, And What Obama and the Rest of Us Must Do

John Nail — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:49:54 EDT

FROM TPM:

I'ved poked around Washington today, talking with friends on the Hill who confirm the worst: Big Pharma and Big Insurance are gaining ground in their campaign to kill the public option in the emerging health care bill.

You know why, of course. They don't want a public option that would compete with private insurers and use its bargaining power to negotiate better rates with drug companies. They argue that would be unfair. Unfair? Unfair to give more people better health care at lower cost? To Pharma and Insurance, "unfair" is anything that undermines their profits.

6 Health Insurers Boards Paid More than Senate and SCOTUS Combined

John Nail — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:36:34 EDT

In updating our annual review of the executive salaries of the 7 largest publicly traded health plans , Aetna, Cigna, Wellpoint, United Heatlhcare, Humana and Coventry, we decided to look at the Boards of these firms and the compensation paid to their members.

As one would expect the 69 Board members of these six insurers are highly compensated averaging nearly $275,000 annually. All for sitting in on a few board meetings.

In fact in total the compensation paid them is greater than total salaries paid the the 1oo members of the US Senate and the 9 Supreme Court Justices combined.

Wellpoint’s 16 member Board, the most highly compensated, makes $1M more than the President Obama, Vice President Biden, all 15 Cabinet Secretaries and the 9 Supreme Court Justices combined.

The value comparisons are obvious and this represents another obvious PR problem that the for profit insurers face.

More on this in upcoming posts..

Wellpoint's Board Paid More than Executive and Judiciary Branches Combined

John Nail — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:34:36 EDT

Wellpoint’s 16 member Board, the most highly compensated of the 6 largest health insurers, makes $1M more than President Obama, Vice President Biden, all 15 Cabinet Secretaries and the 9 Supreme Court Justices combined.

At over $325,000 each this is nice pay for a few board meetings a year…another PR problem for the for profit insurers. Their Boards, not just their execs, are too highly compensated.

32 Execs from 6 Health Insurers Out Earn All US Govt. Leaders Again in 2008

John Nail — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 20:32:47 EDT

In what was a bad year for the health insurance industry and a disastrous one for the US economy the 32 top executives of Aetna, Cigna, Wellpoint, United Healthcare, Humana and Coventry earned $144,000,000 combined.

This total fell dramatically from 2007 when these same companies had total executive comp. of $278,000,000, though there were numerous severance packages in that figure.

By comparison the total salaries of the President, Vice President, 15 Cabinet Secretaries, 9 Supreme Court Justices and 535 members of the US House and Senate were just under $100M last year.

The Boards of these 6 profit healthplans earned another $21,400,000 for attending a few board meetings annually.

In the past 5 years the executives of these 6 companies and their Board members have been paid over $925,000,000 plus the approximately $450,000,000 million in stock options that former United Healthcare CEO William McGuire was allowed to keep of the $1,800,000,000 that he had been awarded in his questionable options dating scandal.

Right, wrong or indifferent, the for profit healthcare plans have a major PR issue that this compensation issue is just part of.

Earlier this week Forrester Research relased the results of its industry customer satisfaction statistics and for the seconmd straight year the health insurers came in dead last, actually losing ground from 2007.

In April J.D. Powers released their healthplan rankings by region and the results for Aetna, Cigna, Wellpoint, and especially United Healthcare, were downright embarassing in comparison to the regional players and BCBS plans that won in every region. Only Humana scored reasonably well in those surveys.

So an industry with abysmal customer satisfaction results continues to raise prices at will and compensate its leadership based on what criteria? This dog doesn’t hunt in any other part of our lives and may not in the future as healthcare reform progresses.

Did Barack Inspire the New Star Trek?

John Nail — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:40:33 EDT

Lessons from the New “Star Trek” On Leadership and Teamwork

Posted May 11, 2009 by theindustryradar
Categories: Business, Human Resources, Leadership
Tags: star trek

The new Star trek movie is a spectacular summer fun ride whether you are a “Trekkie”, or like my 9 year old Star Wars crazed son, a newbie to this iconic story and its characters.

I have loved Star Trek since it came out in 1966 when I was 13. Until seeing the new movie I had never really thought how revolutionary it was in 1966 presenting a crew made up of a black woman, an Asian, a Russian, a Scot, a rebellious Iowa farm boy and an alien. 1966…43 years ago..

Today a team this diverse is not that unusual and the movie is also is a great reminder, especially in difficult times like these, what is required for any organization to succeed:

Leadership
Vision
Intelligence
Competence
Creativity
Diverse opinions and discussion
Properly recruited people who are
Well trained and
Allowed to do their jobs and the
Right technology to support them

Now your business may not have Klingons or Romulans to fight but your challenges are just as real.

It is challenging times like these that demand some bold thinking and action and true team work if, as Spock would say, you want to “Live, long and prosper”.

So on this Monday morning are you ready to say – “Beam me up Scotty” – I am ready to go?

“Aye Captain!”….Have a good week!!

share this...

Palin Plays the "POW' Card Over and Over

John Nail — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 17:29:08 EDT

Amazing - several paragraphs and references to the "dark places" he served and other like POW references and she is "not going to let people forget that"....

Is McCain a living example of "profiles in courage" and not out of a book? Is that a POW reference?

What Would Lloyd Bentsen Say?

John Nail — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 17:12:10 EDT

If Lloyd Bentsen were still with us he might say something like "Madam, I know Hillary Clinton, she's a friend of mine, and you are no Hillary Clinton". My guess is with 5 kids she can spell potatoe so Dan Quayle may be a worse pick than her, but that is really doubtful.

I am no Hillary fan by a long shot but there is no question she is a talented, experienced person and ready to be President. So Sarah Palin is the Republican answer to woo disaffected women? What an insult to Hillary and her 18 million supporters.

So nounverbPOW picks Pro life, pro gun, creationism believer with small town mayoral experience and 2 years as Governor in a state that has more revenue than it can spend due to oil. Sarah is being introduced as "nounverbSoccerMom", or nounverb"SoninIraq" mom, or .nounverb "DownsSyndromeBabyMom".

The most distressing thing to me is that McCain's "maverick" pick violates the first rule of a VP - someone ready to become CIC on a moment's notice. It adds to the McCain is dangerous riff to me.

The posting below is MyBO blog from a month ago (on the day McCain had his golf cart photo op with Bush 41) when I wrote about a Jindal pick. I simply exchanged Palin's name for Jindal's and the logic and my prediction that McCain would do something stupid has come true...thank God! New comments are in bold as well

Is McCain about to Make A Bad Decision?

By John Nail - Jul 21st, 2008 at 11:15 pm EDT Also listed in: 10 groups Comments | Mail to a Friend | Report Objectionable Content

Consider this.

If McCain feels so compelled this week to announce his VP choice and now feels he needs to flex his maverick muscles in doing so to give him a chance, will choosing ~~Bobby Jindal~~ Sarah Palin be a bad decision?

I think so.

The VP choice for both Barack and McCain is an important one for different reasons.

Barack has made it clear that his choice will be someone ready to be President first. For Barack he wants to show that his choice is a good one to be President if something were to happen to him as well as shore up his lack of foreign policy experience.
For McCain at 72 he could very well die or become ill in office and again his VP needs to be ready to step in and be President.

I won't put odds on either type of event but lets make this readiness a basic threshold for anyone in either party.

McCain's obvious lack of economic experience and increasingly incompetent and gaffe prone campaign makes having a man like Romney a great choice - smooth and a true successful CEO and ready to lead - whether you like him or not. He could be President.

Now today McCain was with Bush 41. I hope he did not ask about a Quayle type pick. ~~Jindal~~ Palin is clearly very talented, has a compelling family story and has a great future but is ~~very young and has some baggage that could be distracting...voodoo, odd LA things in his past and he is an Indian American opening up another racial element to the campaign~~ very inexperienced, pro Life, pro gun, anti global warming, teaches creationism in AK schools that the Repubs Hillary supporters and Independents won't like.

Could he she be President? I suppose but Romney makes me more comfortable on that level and his business acumen if God forbid McCain won.

My bet is that McCain the maverick is about to show off his lack of judgment and management experience and pick ~~Jindal~~ Palin mistakeningly thinking that he will show the right wingers like Rush and Newt what they want - the future of the party...

So if that is the case and Barack picks Biden lets say we will have a weird dynamic. The Repubs will try and compare ~~Jindal~~ Palin and ~~his~~ her experience to Barack and the Dems can say Biden out duels McCain's experience.

Stay tuned but I have thought for awhile that McCain might do something like this. Palin ~~Jindal~~ is no Dan Quayle intellectually thank God by a long shot. McCain would show a true duplicity and lack of leadership while he is attacking Barack on his lack of military and foreign policy experience and picks a talented and attractive young ~~man~~ woman who has spent no time in the crucible of national politics regardless of anything else he she has done,

His VP who would replace him would be a bright, totally untested, 1st term governor, 44 year old female governor from Alaska ~~37 year old Indian American from Louisiana~~. Quite a gamble for someone so focused on his experience and readiness to lead.

Kind of neuters his entire argument against Barack....McCain's just dumb enough to do this too which is even scarier. Remember there is a reason he was 794/799 in his Naval Academy Class.

John McCain - A New Definition of POW

John Nail — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:08:23 EDT

POW = Philanderer On Wife

A classic...

What Barack Did Today and What it Shows Us

John Nail — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 19:17:01 EDT

McCain lost his moral compass and decided to try "celebrityboating" et al and now he is getting hit back. Joe will hit his friend hard. Politics ain't beanbags and Obama is from Chicago and understands that. Now that McCain has laid his marker on the negative campaign the gun is coming to the knife fight and Joe Biden will be wielding it.

So lets try a different list in looking at the way he addressed this key decision and what it shows about the man:

1) Responsibility - He chose a man ready to lead and be President if he were thrust into that role w/ proven knowledge and credibility

2) Judgment - His self confidence is secure to bring in an older and experienced expert, like Kennedy, Reagan, Bush and others have done to join his team and advise him in an area that he needs help

3) Management Discipline - it never leaked. Compared to the Bush White House or the Clinton's this is amazing and speaks to Obama's skills.

4) Control - the campaign owned us all all week and did things their way, again with total discipline, unlike anything I have ever seen.

5) Realism - he chose a man that will help build the voting majority he needs to win in certain states, demographics et al

6) Shrewd Politician - People are finally understanding that Obama plays to win and works that way.

7) Insider Politics - in order to govern and get things done Obama needs to get work done on the hill and Biden can get that done as a skilled legislator and insider.

The message of hope and change is only worth anything if he wins and Obama has acted responsibly to complete his ticket to accomplish his goal.

If you folks haven't figured it out yet you don't go from giving a speech 4 years ago to coming from 30 points down to beating the Clinton machine by being shallow and inept. That requires brains, discipline and a connection to the people that taps their needs.

Obama has done that and now he has put the last piece in place to sprint for victory.

McCain's Worst Nightmare - A 3 AM Moment

John Nail — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 14:37:47 EDT

McCain lives and breathes for crises. For a "3 AM" moment. Well, it happened.

We have had a real 3 AM moment - the Obama text message arrived on my iPhone at 3:09 AM EST. It is McCain's worst nightmare - other than his house gaffe. Oh by the way Joe has one house.

My guess is that the Rovians - in keeping with their disdain for "the One" - thought Barack would make a weak pick. Probably totally convinced themselves since they hate him so much that this newbie, lightweight would screw this up. I guess they missed the facts that "the One" beat Billary and he learned his politics in Chicago... and unlike McCain is really smart.

Instead he made the absolutely right pick - a strong, tough guy who is eminently qualified to be President with loads of positives and now the Republican "message" is trying to push the message that this shows Obama's weaknesses, "not ready to lead", not ready to be "Commander in Chief", and he had to choose someone to shore up his campaign...blah, blah. McCain's press secretary even threw the plagiarism and law school standing out as well this AM. Oh boy! lets get that can of worms open....

Attacks so hard and fast tell me they are really, really afraid. Why ?

First with all the things working against him he is stuck below 45 or 46% in all the polls and that is with his base support in the high 80's already. This is not a glass half full problem as the Republicans are spinning, it is half empty as they head into Minneapolis.

Second, they needed a mistake from Obama and did not get one. Obama made a great pick showing his self confidence and the Chicago political savvy that took the Clintons down. This story line will sell - ie a President's job is to get the best people to work with him. He is in this to win.

Third, if this was chess we would have a "check" situation. McCain the POW has created - to use a POW phrase - "tiger cage" for his own VP. Based on their own criteria and rules they need to be ready to lead, have foreign affairs creds and be commander in chief material - i.e. "ready on day one" to quote Hillary. If the VP choice lacks anything here how do you criticize Obama on these same terms?

McCain's 3 main picks lack all all or some of these criteria:

Choose the bland and inexperienced Pawlenty and the "ready to lead" issue is moot - might even support a bad judgement riff on McCain. The age gap visually would also reinforce his 72 years.

Choose the smarmy Democrat Lieberman and you'll have a war internally on your hands on his abortion and liberal views. The maverick off the reservation riff lights up. The base stays home and more than offsets the independents he attracts or some Jewish vote.

Choose Mitt and Mormons and evangelicals don't mix, esp. in the south. Two rich out of touch white guys and one is "different". This is the most damaging electorally. In the really close states this could tip the balance. It might get Nevada, but won't pull Michigan. Also Romney's attacks on McCain make the one video of Biden on Obama look like a Bugs Bunny cartoon.

So does this let some others back in like Christ? or Portman? or Kantor? None of them seem ready to lead to me other than maybe Christ who is still just a first term governor. Are there others out there?

Meg Whitman? Great entrepreneur and leader but no relevant experience. Carly Fiorina? Her failure at HP is legendary and public and while she talks a good game she is a really poor choice.

Ridge is the only choice that makes sense but his pro choice views supposedly have already disqualified him.

If I were McCain I would choose Huckabee, but he will not. They dislike each other, Huckabee would shore up the base and evangelicals and protect him in VA, NC and GA . He is also a superb campaigner and communicator. Also would help in lots of other places due to the religious right.

A dozen states or more are going to be decided by a few points so every move carries major risk/rewards and McCain's choices are all bad at this point unless he really has something up his sleeve...and with a little luck the maverick might even make things worse.

Joe Biden - The VP Ready to be President

John Nail — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:34:33 EDT

My favorite slogan so far is below:

ONE HOUSE, ONE SPOUSE --- OBAMA/BIDEN 08!!

More importantly if a tragedy made him President like it did LBJ 45 years ago (which I remember vividly), or Truman or Teddy Roosevelt - we would have a man who could soothe the country and the world and lead this nation. Joe is a honest guy, a family man who has worked hard and is not rich like all his colleagues. he has not gotten rich as a Senator.

All the other bona fides on the pick are not relevant other than politically. His demographics are terrific as a Catholic, from PA, with older women, blue collar folks, Reagan democrats.

I hope, no pray, that we never need Joe in that capacity.

Joe can run off at the mouth but he is honest and a "good guy", which never hurts. I'd love to have a beer with him...

ONE HOUSE, ONE SPOUSE --- OBAMA/BIDEN 08!!

John Nail — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:15:46 EDT

ONE HOUSE, ONE SPOUSE --- OBAMA/BIDEN 08!!

Best I've seen! Go Joe!!

McCain's "POW" get out of jail free card

John Nail — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 20:46:00 EDT

This is a hoot - the POW card...couresty of DailyKos

This card may be used as an excuse for:

Cheating on your 1st wife, to marry a a younger, richer one

Being a major player in the Keating 5 Scandal

Stating that you don't know about economic issues while running for president

Being known as being "angry" - to such an extent that fellow Congressmen (from your own party) question your mental stability to be president

Repeatedly mistaking "Shiite" for "Sunni" while at the same time claiming to be an expert on foreign policy

Running for president while being aligned with George Bush 99% of the time, at the same time that he is the most unpopular president in the history of polling

Egging on Russia, and giving unquestionable support for Georgia - at a time when diplomacy could diffuse the situation

Not being able to remember the number of homes you own - cause, you know, who can remember something as tough as that?

Thinking that someone making $4.9 million a year is still "middle class"

Agreeing that the US will only be at its strongest when we reimplement the draft

Stating that Americans would not pick lettuce for $50/hour (I WOULD!!)

Having your top economic policy advisor state that the US is "a nation of whiners" in a "mental recession" cause most Americans aren't happy with the current economy

"Bomb Bomb Bomb, Bomb bomb Iran"

If you can think of any more things that this card can be/has been used for, add them below...I'm sure we will find out more soon, as the campaign progresses...

**UPDATE:**

Acknowledging that you have been in a "cone of silence" when actually you were in a car with your aids, who all had Blackberries and (I would assume) internet/radio/tv access...hmmm...

Saying that ABBA if your favorite musical group

Running for president - but only holding one campaign event per day

Helping to write the campaign finance law, and breaking the rules of that law with your own campaign...

Wearing $500 shoes (see them in the card, they are pretty aren't they:)), having 8-10 houses, and a wife worth $100 million - while declaring that the other candidate is elitist for like arugula...

(Courtesy of TheUnknown285) - thanks...

Plagiarizing Wikipedia articles to show your "foreign policy expertise" - and not getting called on it

Claiming, rightfully so, that the likes of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell are agents of intolerance in the 2000 election and then actively seeking out the likes of John Hagee, who compares the Catholic Church to a prostitute and says that Hitler was doing God's work vis-a-vis the Jews.

The Myth of the "Generic" Party Vote

John Nail — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:37:18 EDT

One stat that the MSM keeps pointing to is the underperformance of Obama in the polling compared to the party iD or generic ballot.

Interestingly so did/does Hillary.

In the last 2 elections more Dems voted for Bush than vice versa by 3-5%. Gore only got 85% of the Dem Vote while Kerry got 89%. Bush was 90+ both times, incl. 93% in 2004.

So if this year the gap is 10% per the polls of D vs. R is it Obama's "fault" he has a narrow lead?

If you figure that McCain has folks buffaloed still that he's a Maverick that addresses a few points. The bitter primary wounds that have not healed add a couple more and the fact that Obama is black has an impact as well.

One could argue that all told he is in much better shape than Kerry was and that with the convention ahead, party healing and base consolidation impact and VP excitement that Obama is in good shape.

I think that narrative is the right call right now. Narrow lead, tough fight, but good prospects. No surprise in a country as divided as we have become on red and blue.

Just because the major polls show a 3 point race or so on average to me is fine. The daily avg. continues to be 2-3 pts (Rass is back to +2 today) w/ McCain bupling that 45/46% ceiling. Barack was never ahead by 12 or 15 points like a couple of June polls showed. Nor frankly is he behind McCain like the Zogby shows.

Interestingly that 45/46 is all a generic would get for the R's.

It is a 51 race story with about 20 that matter and the number 1 key is getting the base and Hillary's ladies in the fold as best we can.

Once done taking the atttack to McSame and the ground game will push the lead out as long as we attack and make the Repubs play our game and our tempo on our terms...sounds like basketball....whcih Barack is pretty good at...

McCain's Negative Ad Fodder - "Reality Show"

John Nail — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:14:14 EDT

f this were a TV show it could not be more bizarre. The lies, deceit and hypocrisy of our POW war hero, and now his wife, are sad and frightening.

Lying about their Family

Christian Science Monitor Blasts Cindy McCain For Lying About Mother Teresa Baby Adoption Story

Lying about Energy

McCain claims to always have been for it and never to have missed a major vote. Wrong. See this article for details. He is 0 for 9.

Lying about His Tax Plan

Here are the facts

Extramarital Behavior and Lies

CNN Talks With McCain About His Extramarital Affairs

Rich/Elitist

Politico: McCain unsure how many houses he owns

Judgment

Judgment? McCain Says He'd Have Picked Cheney, Rumsfeld

From the NYT today examining McCain's 9/11 response: - War w/ Irag

Character - POW Friend Won''t Vote for Him

Read the entire article here. it is quite enlightening

Hypocrite

McCain calls lobbyists 'birds of prey'

Nations Don't Invade other Nations in the 21st Century

Check the Poll Internals - Compare - Then Relax

John Nail — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:56:57 EDT

Since none of the talking heads in the MSM looks at the data behind the data, they simply spit out the numbers from the press releases, we will continue to.

The latest Insider Advantage poll of LV in NC is good for Obama showing the state at 45-43. RCP avg. is 4.4%. You won't hear this is good poll news as the MSM is now on the Obama losing meme.

What is more important is what lies under this 2 point/inside the margin.tie.

The major item is the African American (AA) vote is showing 74% for Barack and 17 for McCain. The NC AA community is solidly for Obama and 90%+ is more likely. It went 85% for Kerry in 2004 and 90%+ in the primary.

Also the AA percentage of total in the poll is 21%. In 2004 it was 26% of the states total. With all the new voters and the Obama ground game is it conceivable that we'll have a drop in percentage? Not likely.

The "base" vote has Barack in the mid 80's compared to 90% for McCain., Not bad compared to others. kerry got 84%.

So what would this poll look like at 90/10 and 26% AA vote for Obama and a couple points higher in Dem. vote? About a 4.5% swing all by itself.

So, all Obama has to so is perform equally to Kerry and he could win NC. Any <30 age group gains, cell phone gap issues and and increase in the AA vote like we saw in the big primary win and this gets to be a comfortable win....

The lesson - look at the numbers in the detail. Check in at CNN for the details from the last few elections and you too can be a political analyst. In fact you'll know mroe than 99% of these idiots we see on TV and many of the professional bloggers. Have fun!

PS - also use www.fivethirtyeight.com to really get the best data, analysis and chatter on the numbers.

The "Base" is the Place - Poll Analysis

John Nail — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:06:47 EDT

With the new polls out and everyone getting very nervous as the McCain attack machine has clearly worked I want to focus all of your attention on the only stat that matters right now in any poll you look at - the "base" vote % for their party candidate. Also think of this number in the context of the strategy of the VP pick AND the convention speaking setup.

As a point of reference for this post:

In 2004 Bush got an astounding 93% of his base, Kerry 89%. Kerry was +1 on Independents.
In 2000 Bush got 91% and Gore 86%. Bush was +2 on Independents.
1996 Dole got 80% , w/out Perot he was in the 86% range, far below Bush.

Remember 1996 Dole had ZERO enthusiam for him and 2000/2004 was with the incredible data based ground game Rove put together. Sound like 2008 in reverse with McCain's lack of enthusaism and our ground game?

Nearly every poll that is coming out gives McCain from 82-87% of the Repub base support and Obama mid to high 70's.

The Rassmussen OH poll today is 87% for example and Obama only 77% as of now. This poll also had McCain getting 18% of the black vote (unlikely)
PPP in MO today shows it 87-78 and a 10 pt lead for MCain, up 7 in a month as the base support slipped
In an NC poll last week where Obama was down 6 only had 67%. Most have been low to high 70's. The decline in Barack's numbers are not coming from a huge strengthening of McCain, but a decline for Obama due to base slippage.

To prove this point the lone exception I can find is the Univ. Of Iowa poll out today where Obama is +7 and his base vote is 90%. Iowans know and trust Obama and the base support shows here.

Mathematically the inherent gap here is slightly higher due to Dem preferences in the electorate and higher 2008 registration. It is 5-7% in total depending on the state. In essence a HUGE gap. A landslide sized gap.

Is my point obvious? At this point the one thing that McCain has done in the 4+ months he has had is solidify his base which is running only mid 80's and climbing this month as the ads have worked, but still much stronger than Obama and well below Bush. More on apar with Dole.

Clearly we have not gotten all the Clinton folks and many mainline Dems esp, the older females into the fold yet. Hence the wisdom of the convention strategy. I am no HRC or fan of Bubba but think about what has happened.

With all the drama about the convention there has been a lot of press. and interest. According to Rassmussen 51% of Dems and 40% of Independents are more likely to watch this year vs. 40% of Repubs are less likely to watch - a manifestation of the "enthusiasm" gap.

So devoting a nite to HRC's historic campaign for women should draw a lot of folks that aren't on board yet and get them engaged. Bubba can wind it up for past Dem glories and assuage some of that crowd and the VP can rip into McCain and Bush before Barack knocks it out of the park on Thursday nite.

On the VP front Nate at 538 has great stats showing Biden's appeal to the older demograhics where Obama is weakest. A good sign if Joe is really the pick. Besides the impact he will have in making Barack less scary, add foreign policy experience and generally make the ticket a bit more mainstream for folks...an older Catholic, PA born white guy will balance here nicely.

Larry Sabato has a great post today on bounces. Kerry's inane convention 4 years ago got no bounce (swiftboating helped here) and Bush only got 2 and 4 in 2000. Gore got 8 in 2000 as did Bubba in 1996. Even Dole got 5% in 1996. Nate had an even more in depth piece last week.

With the "base" gap, enthusiasm, the new echo chamber of the web and blogosphere I think the outcome of a well orchestrated convention could be huge - both in the "base" solidification and the enthusiasm bounce.

This is NOT to say that this is going to be easy (it never was) and that it is not going to get uglier (it is going to get a lot uglier) and that barack needs to get on and stay on the attack daily (he does). The Obama folks have proven to be pretty smart so lets let them work their magic...this time 2 weeks from now I think we'll be pretty happy in the polls, the message and the ticket as they go on the fall offensive to win.

PS - I am going to try and do a chart on the "base" gap for the battleground states as well to give us the real hard numbers across the board.

McCain's 3 Big Mistakes this Week Will Come Back to Haunt Him

John Nail — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 11:39:03 EDT

I continue to be amazed at the "Straight Talk" Express. I'd call McCain the "Loose Cannon" Express for his gaffes and out and out misstatements and stupid statements. Lets look at three just the last 2 days:

1) Alternative Energy - at the Aspen Institute McCain claims to always have been for it and never to have missed a major vote. Wrong. See this article for details. He is 0 for 9.

2) Abortion - 36% of women incorrectly think that McCain is pro choice and any Hillary supporters thinking about supporting McCain need to watch this link. His answer at Saddleback should solve that issue once and for all

3) Supreme Court - at Saddleback once again McCain named 4 justices he thought were bad and he would not have appointed. The problem is McCain VOTED TO APPROVE ALL 4 in the Senate.

Add to this the comment on the Corsi book of "having a sense of humor" and the Loose Cannon Express had a big week.

McCain's "Judgment" - NYT Today

John Nail — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 11:33:29 EDT

I had not seen these c omments before but they only reinforce to me why McCain can't be President.

From the NYT today examining McCain's 9/11 response:

"Within a month he made clear his priority. “Very obviously Iraq is the first country,” he declared on CNN. By Jan. 2, Mr. McCain was on the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt in the Arabian Sea, yelling to a crowd of sailors and airmen: “Next up, Baghdad!”

and another...

“He has the personality of a fighter pilot: when somebody stings you, you want to strike out,” said retired Gen. John H. Johns, a former friend and supporter of Mr. McCain who turned against him over the Iraq war. “Just like the American people, his reaction was: show me somebody to hit.”

The Reality of Obama vs. McCain on Taxes

John Nail — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 10:38:50 EDT

The Reality of Obama vs. McCain on taxes, As you can see Obama is in fact lowering taxes across the board and McCain does not:

The Power of the Ground Game

John Nail — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 10:18:43 EDT

Team Obama challenged Florida volunteers and organizers to make 50,000 calls this week, and they delivered, making 125,000 calls in 48 hours.

The War in Georgia Touches Atlanta

John Nail — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 21:02:38 EDT

This week the kids went back to school here in Atlanta. My daughter started 1st grade and my son 3rd at the local public elementary school, Sarah Smith. My son me last week that one of the kids in his class was from Russia. This is not at all unusual as they have friends from France,Ireland,Korea and other countires as well as all colors. Their classes are the type of hopeful aggregation that America can be.

Last night he said that one of the kids in his class is stuck in "a war". As it turns out one of the boys in his class is in Georgia along with his Mom and a sibling while the father is here.

We watched the scenes of Russian occupation last nite and I don't think it fully registered for him that his classmate was stuck - and we pray safe - in that conflict zone.

What does all this mean? That the world we live in is in fact smaller and "flat" compared to the world of the mid 1960's I grew up in where the most exotic any of my friends ever got were "Irish" or "Catholic".

Our prayers are with these folks in the war zone and are mindful of the world we live in today where what happens half a world away impacts us all.

VIDEO - Bush Ratings and McCain Voting Record - WOW!

John Nail — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:40:01 EDT

Must See Video - Bush Ratings / McCain Voting reocrd

McCain: "In The 21st Century Nations Don't Invade Other Nations"

John Nail — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:37:46 EDT

Sen. McCain - what about Iraq and the US?

Click above to see McCain say this

Is McCain Behaving As Presumptuous President or Like Jesse Jackson?

John Nail — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:59:54 EDT

You would think based on the statements by John McCain and the MSM coverage of his bellicose comments on the Georgian conflict that he was President and making US Policy. He is talking to their President several times a day, helping keep their spirits up, telling the media all the US are "Georgians" today etc.

Last time I looked we had a President and a Secretary of State who until January 20th run this nation's foreign policy.

In an attempt to politicize this awful situation McCain, whose top foreign policy adviser and link to Goergia for McCain lobbied for Georgia until 6 weeks ago, is trying to preempt the actions of the US government by his intervention and ongoing comments. Several years ago McCain visited Georgia and jet skiied with their President and in 2005 nominated him (along with Hillary) for the Nobel peace prize.

It is almost like Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton in the old days when they would jump into the middle of everything they could for personal publicity.

Only a few weeks ago we heard the hew and cry from the McCain campaign, some in the MSM and the blogosphere on the audacity and presumptive nature of Barack Obama's trip to the Middle East and Europe. The fact that McCain goaded him into it and the world responded positively and Barack said several times he was not there on any policy matters as those belonged to the President. Of course he got hammered as "presumptuous".

In fact McCain is dispatching his de facto foreign policy team - Joe Lieberman and Lindsay Graham - to personally see the situation on the ground. Is this presumptuous or what? Senators or not this is no time for any actions that Secy. Rice and Pres. Bush aren't in charge of.

Or is another take that it reflects poor judgment and lack of leadership in trying to one up the US Government?

I see this self serving behavior as the hot headed fighter pilot, McCain, exercising poor judgment and getting in the way of the US government. Tactics not policy and strategy."Shooting from the hip"...

Hurtful, self serving and rash....not the "leader" he is trying to project for political gain while preaching that this is not a time for partisanship.

If this does not highlight the real issue with John McCain as a President nothing will.

Will We See a Big or Small "Base" Bounce?

John Nail — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:24:38 EDT

As we all have looked at the polls and listened to the chatterati say that Barack is underperforming and looking for answers in every demographic for the smoking gun the answer is now right under our nose.

The Pew survey today that calls the race tied (yawn) shows how McCain has edged closer: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/924/presidential-race-draws-even

He has solidified his base better. No surprises really. With a 3 month headstart and now knowing who the nominee is in Barack they have held their noses and joined him, though still very unenthusiastically. His 5% Rep. pickup is worth 2 points in the poll. Barack lost 3 Rep. points as well. The attack ads have helped him w/ Repubs it seems.

Barack is showing 82% of Dems, up only 1 point since June - If he gets to 87/88% that should about 3% pickup with the registration numbers for Dems being higher.

I had seen these figures in other polls where McCain was in the high 70 to low 80 percent range with Repubs and Barack in the high 70's and this the best indication yet to me that the convention will provide a large and lasting bounce closer to the generic R/D pols we see.

Assuming (and it is a big assumption as I smell foul in the air) that Billary and their clan do not make a mess of the convention and really help rally their faithful, along with a good VP pick and a terrific acceptance speech we should get a bounce to over 50, hopefully for good.

With McCain already nearing his high watermark for the faithful and their convention to be dreary affair I do not see the same impact on the Independent voters that the Dems will have.

Its going to be an interesting few weeks.

McCain has had the stage to himself all week and it does not appear his saber rattling has done him any good.

Great Cartoon on Low Road Campaign

John Nail — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 09:48:42 EDT

Great Cartoon ...

To see more of August J. Pollak's cartoon "Some Guy With a Website," check out the archive.

McCain's Best Week So Far - Are you Really Worried?

John Nail — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 21:48:27 EDT

The hand wringing all week from the Obama supporters driven largely by the MSM has been McCain attacking, winning and that Barack needs to strike back and strike hard. Steve Schmidt and the Rovians were finally getting traction and winning the debate everyone in the blogosphere was writing. Sen Schumer, the attack dog's attack dog led the charge. In the background the Greek drama of the Clinton's and the insufferable spoiled child Bill was played out all week as the MSM beat the “problem in Obamaland" drum.

Well, is this story line true? Let's review McCain's progress for the week with his crack new team on top of their tight message control, the celebrity ad, tire gauges, “drill here” lying, negative ads:

Tracking Polls (meaningless at best) - Last weekend he was tied in the Gallup tracking - now he's 5 back and an Emory prof., shows how Gallup results are essentially unchanged for 2 months
National Polls – 4 out this week show 5-7% leads consistent from the last month.
Favorability rating – last Sat. in Rasmussen McCain was 56% now its 54%. Clearly his ads are having some impact.
Swing State progress – Messages to win for sure!
- In IA he tells folks he is against ethanol, but gets his picture w/ Freight Train
- In OH the DHL job loss dogs him and due to his campaign managers lobbying and his support
- In his big day in NV with Vets on Yucca Mountain

Paris Hilton made a fool out of the "old wrinkly dude" and her appearance in his ad is the only reason got the youtube action it got, She was brilliant.....best ad of the year

- Her parents were not amused and are maxed our McCain donors and her grandfather has given over $60k to McCain and the RNC was po’d as well
Female Vote and Cindy – On order to get an audience larger than the 1000 seat high school gyms he can’t even fill McCain went to them and in front of 3-4000 bikers McCain increased his appeal to women by offering Cindy up for the Miss Buffalo Chip contest in Sturgis - the topless and sometime bottomless contest.
Ground Game - After a 3++ month headstart McCain’s ground game is being talked up as "finally catching up" by some lame reporting in Politico. The article has been pushed up for 3 days to keep it on the main page. The reality 538 and Political Base proves just how bad it is in comparison.
Adultery - Kudos to John Edwards for coming clean - ESPECIALLY on a day where Barack was out of the media loop so he could suck the air out of McCain's Friday AND get a shot in about McCain's infidelity 35 years ago. When will the MSM finally touch this?
Obama Attacks Surgically in OH and NV - McCain as Obama surrogate in Obama Ads - I am sure you saw the videos. First tire pressure, then Yucca Mountain and the DHL mess...McCain's foot in the mouth express is his worst enemy and using his own words makes attack ads so much more effective. Also see Sturgis above
McCain supporters praise Obama – first Palin, then Pawlenty, then Condi Rice
Bundler problems creep in from an unknown bundler and foreign contributions
Hess Oil issues dog McCain’s flip flop on drilling via large and unusual contributions.
Overworked - McCain - who only works weekdays claims he needs more sleep (Today)
Olympics - belatedly McCain makes a $6M late ad buy, touted as $1m more than Obama (though likely fewer spots and less desirable times than Obama) since he has money he HAS to spend by 9/1 or lose. First ad is the negative celebrity attack ad, just want folks want in their entertainment vs. Obama's uplifting message ad ."Hands"
War breaks out in the Causcasus and McCain belligerent public response to this incendiary crisis was out of sync with Bush, Obama, the EU, the UN et al. However his top foreign policy adviser (Scheneuman)was until 5 weeks ago an adviser to Georgia. Does he have advisers that have lobbied for everything and everyone?
Lobbyists – Amazing McCain’s campaign manager made hundreds of thousands of dollars for DHL and that stinky association was already an issue this week and now Scheuneman and Georgia. Want to see the entire McCain team and their connections?

So all the nonsense and hand wringing and the success of Schmidt and the Rovians has impacted the race right…. In the wrong direction…..These guys are really good!!!

Even the NYT is questioning again this train wreck of a campaign.

The Axlerod and Plouffe team have a plan, discipline, organization, money and will crush McCain if he does not kill himself first.

I wonder what this crack group can do while Barack is on his “elitist” vacation in his native Hawaii with his family visiting his grandmother?

The Oil Debate - Reality Check - Drilling Doesn't Solve It

John Nail — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 12:53:56 EDT

This inane back and forth on oil is driving me crazy.The inane gas taxholiday would save the average driver a $,01 - a lousy penny - per mile and cost the highway trust fund $10B.

The facts are really clear and people's behavior can and does make a difference. Lets look at actual usage stats from last month.

In July we averaged 20.2 million barrels of oil used for fuel per day - DOWN 4% - or 800,000 barrels per day from 2007. 25 Million barrrels or so for the month. Not sure what the extraction, refinging and transportation costs for raw crude and finished gas is but that is a lot as well.

So 4%=800,000 (and prices have dropped on demand decline). Conservation works.

Offshore drilling = 200,000 barrels per day by 2020 (per the administration)

200,000=<1% of current daily needs

So - demand decline in one month = 4X the impact of offshore drilling - NOW

Tire inflation - per Nascar and AAA - proper tire inflation = 3-4% better mileage and tuneups et al are worth another 4%.

So simple Personal Responsibility = up to 7% or 1.4 Million barrels/day, assume 50% of this is achievable based on current behavior patterns (ie some folks are already good at all this) = 700,000 barrels per day

700,000 = 3.5X the impact of offshore drilling - NOW

Lower speeds, better driving habits etc aren't even included in the above another 5-10%...

In reality we'd save more oil simply by giving car maintenance vouchers, free oil/filter changes and new tires to lower income folks that can't afford them than any oil we would ever drill for.

I'll take every barrel we can get safely and environmentally from ofshore, ANWR et al but it WON"T solve the problem or likely lower prices as it comes on line over 7-20 years... as the rest of the world demand grows and ours does as well from natural growth.This oil will simply be less money that we send overseas but is a ZERO long term solution.

My point in all of this is EXACTLY what Barack and the Dems have been saying, along with T. Boone Pickens - we can't drill our way out of the problem. We've got a real mess on our hands and every little bit that can be done helps...

Even McCain agrees today saying that he agrees with the AAA on tire inflation....AARGH...

What's Next? - First Lady as Pole Dancer?

John Nail — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 16:39:12 EDT

McCain was in Sturgis, SD today for the big motorcycle rally and contrary to what he said about preferring the sound of 50,000 motorcycles to 200,000 Berliners...he was speaking to only 3000-4000 bikers - a huge audience for McCain.

He also joked about entering his wife Cindy in the "Miss Buffalo Chip" "beauty contest". This is a topless and sometimes bottomless tradition at Sturgis. She just stood there like the Barbie she is smiling.

See his comments here.

Wouldn't it be something if we had a candidate's wife won a topless motorcyle beauty contest and then became first lady?? I know he was joking but hardly becoming for a President and First Lady. He may not have known - which is even scarier - that it was a topless contest.

How can any woman be for McCain?

Can you imagine Barack saying this or even George Bush or Cheney???

PS - I just noticed he did this in front of his daughter who was on stage with him!! What a Dad!!

Tire Gauge Gag by Pawlenty - Stupid! Results are Real

John Nail — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:50:32 EDT

Apparently from what I can see online from car experts the simple fact that inflating tires properly WILL impact gas mileage 3-5%. Maybe as much as 10% if they are underinflated to start with.

So if you mileage is 5% better then your cost per mile is 5% less and miles per tank 5% more. Make sense?

So if that is the case then a $4 gallon of gas with bad tire inflation is equal to a $3.80 - $3.85 gallon with proper inflation.

Guess what? That $.15 -. 20/gallon is essentially the same as $.18 per gallon that McCain's stupid gas tax holiday would save without costing the Highway Trust Fund $10 Billion.

In fact it is 8-9X the $.018 per gallon that Bush's own people have said offshore drilling would save per gallon in 7-10 years when the oil comes online...and you can save it now...at no cost but a quarter at the air machine!!

Be patriotic, save money and get your tires checked!!! :-)

Maybe the tax rebate checks should come with a bonus tire gauge or Obama contributors can get a souvenir Obama tire gauge for a $25 donation..... Oh sorry that might be too arrogant or presumptuous for the Republicans....

Rove as McCain's True Father - Great Cartoon

John Nail — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 09:04:44 EDT

As in Golf - Competence, Confidence and Performance is NOT Arrogance

John Nail — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 21:49:53 EDT

I am a golfer and want to try and put this media nonsense and Rovian spin on Barack as arrogant in some sort of context?

Was Jack Nicklaus Arrogant? Arnold Palmer? Ben Hogan? Byron Nelson? Or Bobby Jones? arrogant?

Of course not. All of them were the best of their day setting new standards that now a mixed race man - Tiger Woods - has and is working on shattering their amazing records.

Does that make him arrogant? His goal since shildhood is to beat Jack's records. Audacious? Arrogant? A celebrity? Hardly..Jack welcomes it..and he has become the best know sprts figure in the world.

Have you ever heard that word mentioned about him? A black man dominating the white man's game...the game of country clubs and racism, bias and exclusion, now dominated by the son of Green Beret and his Asian wife. Note - a "black" Green beret.

Of course not. In a world of individual performance he has singularly changed the oldest game in the world with his fitness, mental toughness and pure will to do whatever it takes to win. We have never seen an athlete like him mentally or in his ability to perform at his peak when he has too. The game of golf has exploded globally and the baseline of success and performance redefined by one man's performance..a black man...first to win a major at Augusta...in the deep South and home of Bobby Jones....yes some were biased but he blew all the reocrds away there and everywhere else.

Performance is not arrogant!

Is he ever arrogant? Or over confident? Or demeaning? He has elevated the game and all its players worldwide by setting new physical and mental standards that it takes to be a champion. But he has never been accused of being arrogant - only a fitness wonder, hard worker, great competitor and a game changer. "Come and get me he says, I want to compete at the highest levels" whenever I can.

So why is Barack considered arrogant when he exerts his considerable game changing skills? His demeanor is not arrogant - I have seen him in 2 townhalls in person this year and he is a genuine down to earth human being. Clearly a smart man, a gifted speaker and a really unique once in a lifetime or generation talent - like Tiger or Jack or Hogan or Jones....or Jack, Bobby or Martin...or FDR or old Abe....

He has skills we have never seen and plays a game and talks a very different way of approaching our problems than we are all accustomed to. That is scary...to some...

Competent, successful and intelligent people can be confident and "B" and "C" players - or worse like most of our politicans, lobbyists and media - who are threatened by them attack and try to stop the threat they feel to the status quo.

Is it really possible that we have a new type of leader that is going to take politics to a new and different and more repsonsive and inclusive level? Where we might actually solve problems? A new level of politics and nationhood for a new century?

Sounds like Tiger and golf to me.

So in golf Tiger's competitors worldwide have had to elevate their games to compete on a new, higher level playing field or they would fail at their chosen profession. The upside was that professional golfers play for more money, in more places in the US and globally at a higher level of competitions than the days of the old white guys - Jones or Nelson or Hogan or Palmer or Nicklaus....

All because a black man of mixed race, building on those that came before him has taken the oldest game in sports to a level no one could ever have imagined...and we are all better for it...and the game now involves more kids and people of all ages, races and skill levels than ever before.

This has happened first in our Armed Forces and then in all our of major sports - baseball, football and basketball...and of course the Olympics. The inclusion of all our citizens have made these areas different, more competitive, more interesting and better for the US and the world.

Why is it that now that we have a brilliant, inspiring, self made (black) man ready to lead this nation that we are so afraid of the change? He represents the best that this country and its history can produce and can open the way to a 21st century of American leadership that will fulfill the Founder's Constitutional ideals.

Hurry back from your knee surgery Tiger...we are going to need some of your excitement to match that of Barack's inauguration and first 100 days next year!!

McCain On Tape - Losing it ??

John Nail — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 18:02:05 EDT

Click here to view McCain in Palm Beach. You will not believe it.

Daily Polls Are A Fools Errand - An Electoral Reality Check

John Nail — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 17:34:54 EDT

These daily polls are a fools errand and everyone knows they mean nothing but creating something for the media and others to write about.

Since we have 51 unique elections and popular vote is only meaningful in those 51 events these national polls really are a waste. Local organizing and the ground game will win the election along with the cash to drive the message and media.

Lets look at the reality here. Look at RCP or 538 or CNN or even Rove's Electoral maps and the chances of Obama winning are all at 60%++...and in a variety of state combinations.

McCain only has one logical way - the same states as Bush (286 EV) with a couple small defections. The only net plus he has maybe is NH (4 Ev) and a very long shot at MI (21 EV) IF Romney were on the ticket.

Any loss of states equal to 17 or more and McCain remains a Senator.

In reality he has lost IA (7). So Obama's his "magic number" is 10 (to use a Baseball term), or 35 if MI and NH go Red.

So all the following Red States from 2000 - MO (11) ,CO (9),NM (5),NV (5), FL (27),VA (15), NC (14),MT (3),ND (3) ,AK (3) ,OH (20), IN (11) that are all listed as tossups must go his way. Any loss of 10 (or best case 35) more EV and its over. In fact the larger states are all showing Obama slightly ahead, incl the latest in FL.

What are the odds of all these staying red? About zero...

Even if McCain won MI and NH, but loses FL (27) all Obama needs to win then is 8 EV and any one of CO, MO, IN,or VA or a combo of NV and NM or any number of others.

McCain could win FL, OH, MI and NH and still lose in a variety of ways.

Obama would only need to chip away 35 EV to win which can come from again any number of these 2004 Red states that again are all tossups - MO (11) ,CO (9),NM (5),NV (5), VA (15), NC (14),MT (3),ND (3) ,AK (3) , IN (11).

Financially Obama will have an advantage as well. Maverick McCain is out organized, out managed, in a bad economy, with a sitting President as an anchor, with a terrible message and a side by side comparison that the debates that will provide between youth and competence and age and lack of depth...

What do these daily polls tell us? Nothing....Absolutely nothing

McCain Used Currency Image in an Ad a Month Ago - And Barack is Playing the Race Card?

John Nail — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 13:09:01 EDT

Up until this spring I considered myself a Republican and I am not some naive follower of the "One". At 55 I have seen a lot and can smell it when I see it and I see it here and I am disgusted by McCain's descent. It was obvious it was going to happen but what a dolt.

So Barack played the race card how? Referring to his face not looking like the President's on our currency?

Here is the video posted on 6/27 of a web ad by the McCain Campaign.

Not only did they use the $100 bill with his picture replacing Ben's, but superimposing Barack's face over those of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and Roosevelt one by one on Mt. Rushmore and ending with him as the Statue of Liberty.

The ad is funny in a bizarre way and pretty pathetic in another as its message of trying to make him look different (code word - Black) in multiple ways by its visual comparisons. You'd have to be blind not to draw this comparison or insanely naive. This is Rovian crap at its best.

The Celeb ad plays the same visual tricks with young blond women and a black man in the same images - (again code word Black and scary)...and eerily similar to the Harold Ford ad.

It is time for Barack to hit back and hit hard on McCain's inability to remember details in a funny way (code word "too Old") and pound on him for his wife's million dollar Amex bill, 8 houses, private plane, $540 loafers et al (code word Elitist)....that is different...not at all like the US voter...

Or the trips abroad on tax payer dollars since he won, the troop visit turned down abroad for he and his wife.

Or simply a montage of all the things he and Cindy have said about a dirty campaign with the media quotes next to them decrying them.....and a big McCain picture with a Pinocchio nose at the end.

A firm and consistent response is required... NOW!! lets give this tired, old man some of his own medicine....time for a "gun at the knife fight".

Quotes of the Week - You Choose The Real Leader

John Nail — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 19:02:05 EDT

Barack's Wailing Wall Prayer:

"Lord — Protect my family and me. Forgive me my sins, and help me guard against pride and despair. Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just. And make me an instrument of your will,"

John McCain's repeated quote all week:

.."I will repeat my statement again, that he would rather lose a war than lose a campaign.."

Interview w/ Wolf Blitzer Today:

"I am accusing — I am stating the facts. And the facts are that I don’t question Senator Obama’s patriotism. I’m sure that he’s a very patriotic American. I question his judgment because he lacks experience and knowledge. And I question his judgment.

I’m not prepared to see the sacrifice of so many brave young Americans lost because Senator Obama just views this war as another political issue with which he can change positions."

Polls, Schmolls!!!

John Nail — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 18:10:37 EDT

It is amazing how the talking heads desperately want to keep the appearance that the race is close.

Yesterday some polls come out and they move a point or two toward McCain and there is a "trend".

All week they have been bemoaning the lack of a "bounce" for Obama and today when both Gallup and Rasmussen show 2 and 4 point gains as a "possible" bounce.

So McCain gets a "trend" and Obama a "possible" bounce...that makes sense...

"I love the smell of Napalm, Especially in the Morning ,,,it Smells like...Victory!"

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 21:34:14 EDT

So - Sen. McCain - even the Colonel in "Apocalypse Now" had a definition of victory. How about you?

Repeating "Surge" a thousand times doesn't do it. Getting the timing of it so wrong makes it worse. having your surrogates try to cover over your continued gaffes makes it even worse.

So what is victory in Iraq?

The Iraqi govt, taking control? Finally

Asking for a timeline for troops leaving?

The govt. finally coming together with Shia and Sunni back in the cabinet..

So what is it? Staying 100 years, 50? 20? 10? What??

Swing States Tighten...Victory = Ground Game and Turnout

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 20:55:05 EDT

There is no surprise that we are in a tight race in lots of states. No suprise at all. Don't let these polls worry you. It is early as well...

So how do you win close elections? Lots of enthusiastic feet on the street organizing enthusiastic volunteers, registering voters and then getting out the vote. That is the age old politics and how Bush/Rove won as well.

Sound familiar? Sound like where the campaign is spending most of its time and money this summer.In all 50 states.

Want to follow all this? Go to Barack Obama Radar and follow this at the state level.

McCain meanwhile is running early ads in a handful of states and we ran $5M of ads in 18 states, many of them like MT, AK, SD et al are really cheap to play in...and like the caucus states winning a few EV will be a bonus and insurance.McCain is outmanned, outgunned and will be out organized - big time.

So if these states like CO,NH,MN,MO, NV, MI, OH et al are close then the ground game and enthusiastic support - not TV ads will be the winner.

The real telling polls today were the ones worth talking about under the ones in the news:

51% of all voters are interested in Obama vs. 27% for McCain
Latinos are now 66%-24% for Obama - huge in lots of states - 9% of the total RV.
Israelis now support barack over McCain. This is a good surrogate for US Jews to follow.

Also in these polls you have a summer effect where lots of folks are on vacation AND the cell phone efffect is also starting to be looked at as well....

Best poll site and analysis is 538 and worth your time.

No one ever said this was going to be easy...but well funded, well organized, well executed and a great candidate will prevail over McCain and his gaffes and lack of vision for the country.

McCain's Two Faced Berlin Screen

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:25:51 EDT

Here is the McCain screen today on the Berlin speech:

"While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a 'citizen of the world,' John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it."

Now what should we have said about his trade speech in Canada or his trips to Columbia and Mexico or the fund raiser in London....

Another McCain Gaffe - Afghanistan was NOT a Major War

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 18:16:21 EDT

You gotta see this again from Katie Couric via The Young Turks on YouTube:

This is the same interview in which McCain claimed the surge led to the Anbar Awakening, which is demonstrably false. But watch below for another gaffe when McCain says Iraq was the first major conflict after 9/11.

Was Afghanistan not major enough for him? It almost reminds you of when Don Rumsfeld was not impressed with invading Afghanistan because it did not provide a rich enough target environment. He needed something more major.

In all likelihood, this was a simple mental mistake for McCain, among a litany of others recently. But it does go toward state of mind. They never saw Afghanistan as a priority.

Young Turks on You Tube

John McCain's week in pictures -You compare

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:51:36 EDT

John McCain's week in pictures. You compare:

TUESDAY

As oil companies announce their massive quarterly profits, McCain makes a campaign stop at Buxton Oil Inc.:

WEDNESDAY

McCain takes questions from reporters about a range of domestic and foreign policy issues -- in front of an aisle of cheese:

Then, via Jed Report, McCain holds an event in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, and 900 of the 1600 seats in the auditorium remain empty:

Great Barack Photo Montage from this Week

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:39:18 EDT

Great Photo montage from Mark Nikolas at Political Base

Nothing says ‘drill safely’ like the smell of diesel in the French Quarter

John Nail — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 17:31:45 EDT

The real reason that John McCain did not go to an oil platform today...

I don't watch network TV but Katie Couric is a real embarassment!!

John Nail — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:35:21 EDT

I don't watch network TV but Katie Couric is a real embarassment!!

Couric Presses Obama for Answers on Surge

The CBS “Evening News” anchor asks the Land of Lincolner repeatedly whether he supports the troop surge in Iraq. Click above for video, and read full transcript.

“Katie, as … you’ve asked me three different times, and I have said repeatedly that there is no doubt that our troops helped to reduce violence. There’s no doubt.”

Best Description of the McCain Whining I've Seen

John Nail — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:02:16 EDT

Jim GR whoever you are thanks!!
"Man will they shut up already. Its like taking a cross country trip with 3 screaming children in the back seat.. They are beginning to make the Clinton machine look humble and accepting.

jim GR (Sent Tuesday, July 22, 2008 2:40 PM)"

A New McCain Campaign Slogan (In Bidenesque Style)

John Nail — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 17:09:51 EDT

One of my favorite lines of the election so far was Joe Biden nicknaming Rudy Giuliani's campaign - "a noun, a verb, and 9/11"...

Now I have given John McCain has his own foreign policy theme that he is so deserving of - finally - "a bitch, a moan and the Surge".....amazing what days worth of whining can do for you..

His domestic policy theme had already been set by Phil Gramm - "whining mental recession"...

Thanks Joe B. for your sound bite that we could modify..

McCain Makes Historic First Visit to Internet....(Hilarious)

John Nail — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:33:06 EDT

In a daring bid to wrench attention from his Democratic rival in the 2008 presidential race, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) today embarked on an historic first-ever visit to the Internet.

Given that the Arizona Republican had never logged onto the Internet before, advisors acknowledged that his first visit to the World Wide Web was fraught with risk.

But with his Democratic rival Barack Obama making headlines with his tour of the Middle East and Europe, the McCain campaign felt that they needed to "come up with something equally bold for John to do," according to one advisor.

McCain aides said that the senator's journey to the Internet will span five days and will take him to such far-flung sites as Amazon.com, eBay and Facebook.

McCain and the Media's "Love" for Obama

John Nail — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:49:14 EDT

So lets get this straight. McCain whose biggest news of the week is whining, blaming Obama for gas prices and announcing a new map and borders is complaining.

He has been overseas 3 times but did not invite the press to go. How dumb is that??

He and his team dared and goaded Obama into going overseas and they invited the press and they all decide to go. Big surprise.

Now did they go for positive reasons or not wanting to miss a fuck up?

All the chatterati beforehand talked about the risks to Obama etc.

May be it is time to admit that Obama is smart, worldly and a real leader regardless of his lack of traditional national and international experience.

He is a strategist who can execute as we have seen and are seeing in his campaign. He has had one vision for years and is acting on it, methodically, focused and without any drama.

McCain the ex fighter jock is a tactician, a good guy to have a beer and bs with but has no world or long term view or grasp on the future. He cannot even use a computer or a Blackberry.

Just because we have put up with 8 years of drama and philandering and 8 of dull, neo con manipulation from a President whose "strategery" is flawed has inured us to expecting little and not trusting a bright, charismatic, articulate young man with a vision and plan.

That in and ouf itself is a sad commentary

Is McCain about to Make A Bad Decision?

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 23:15:35 EDT

Consider this.

If McCain feels so compelled this week to announce his VP choice and now feels he needs to flex his maverick muscles in doing so to give him a chance, will choosing Bobby Jindal be a bad decision?

I think so.

The VP choice for both Barack and McCain is an important one for different reasons.

Barack has made it clear that his choice will be someone ready to be President first.

For Barack he wants to show that his choice is a good one to be President if something were to happen to him as well as shore up his lack of foreign policy experience.

For McCain at 72 he could very well die or become ill in office and again his VP needs to be ready to step in and be President.

I won't put odds on either type of event but lets make this a basic threshold for anyone in either party.

Now today McCain was with Bush 41. I hope he did not ask about a Quayle type pick. Jindal is clearly very talented and has a great future but is very young and has some baggage that could be distracting...voodoo, odd LA things in his past and he is an Indian American opening up another racial element to the campaign that the Repubs won't like.

Could he be President? I suppose but Romney makes me more comfortable on that level and his business acumen if God forbid McCain won.

My bet is that McCain the maverick is about to show off his lack of judgment and management experience and pick Jindal mistakeningly thinking that he will show the right wingers like Rush and Newt what they want- the future of the party...

So if that is the case and Barack picks Biden lets say we will have a weird dynamic. The Repubs will try and compare Jindal and his experience to Barack and the Dems can say Biden out duels McCain's experience.

Stay tuned but I have thought for awhile that McCain might do something like this. Jindal is no Dan Quayle thank God by a long shot. McCain would show a true duplicity and lack of leadership while he is attacking Barack on his lack of military and foreign policy experience and picks a talented and attractive young man who has spent no time in the crucible of national politics regardless of anything else he has done,

His VP who would replace him would be a bright, totally untested, 1st term governor, 37 year old Indian American from Louisiana. Quite a gamble for someone so focused on his experience and readiness to lead.

Kind of neuters his entire argument against Barack....he;s just dumb enough to do this too which is even scarier.

McCain's Secret Map Showing Iraq/Pakistan Border

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:22:41 EDT

Matthew Yglesias | July 21, 2008 08:37 PM

John McCain, like all decent Americans, is concerned about the trouble on the Iraq-Pakistan border. Ali Frick, like a typical liberal, derides this on the grounds that there is no such border. But if she had McCain's years of foreign policy expertise and extensive conversations with John McCain she would have access to this double super-secret map of the CENTCOM AOR

Read the whole story here.

Strategy (Obama) trumps Tactics (McCain) in Foreign Policy

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:34:18 EDT

This past few days puts an exclamation point on the difference between these 2 men.

McCain the maverick fighter pilot and squadron commander - tactical jobs that fight battles. The surge was tactics not strategy as we are seeing as McCain has no long term plans.

Barack the self made man, author, Harvard law Review editor, community organizer, assessing all the facts, risks, rewards and looking at consequences of actions and laying out a long term strategy for winning the war on islamist terrorism is what a Commander in Chief should be doing.

This is now so obvious that this 72 year old man, a 3rd generation military man, 794/799 in his Annapolis class , fighter pilot who crashed 3 planes and decorated POW is NOT Commander in Chief and CEO material.I fact his foreign policy credentials are as dubious as his Czechoslovakia and the Pakistan/Iraq border comments.

The "inexperienced", empty suited orator, black, 1st term Senator, brilliant, pragmatic, progressive with a funny name whose strategy, organization and flawless execution in the prmaries came from 30 points down to defeat the most powerful political family in US history looks like strategy is his long suit.

Now he is running the largest staff ever fielded in US politics to try and change the political map and political climate in this country on his own terms and on non public financing with no lobbyists and influence peddlers.

I know who I am betting on to win and be a truly great President.

McCain's Rejected NYT OpEd - Embarassingly Bad

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 19:48:26 EDT

The following is the OpEd that was rejected for obvious reasons. It is really embarassing to read something like this from a man who claims to be so qualified to be President....Enjoy!

"In January 2007, when General David Petraeus took command in Iraq, he called the situation "hard" but not "hopeless." Today, 18 months later, violence has fallen by up to 80% to the lowest levels in four years, and Sunni and Shiite terrorists are reeling from a string of defeats. The situation now is full of hope, but considerable hard work remains to consolidate our fragile gains.
Progress has been due primarily to an increase in the number of troops and a change in their strategy. I was an early advocate of the surge at a time when it had few supporters in Washington. Senator Barack Obama was an equally vocal opponent. "I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence there," he said on January 10, 2007. "In fact, I think it will do the reverse."
Now Senator Obama has been forced to acknowledge that "our troops have performed brilliantly in lowering the level of violence." But he still denies that any political progress has resulted.
Perhaps he is unaware that the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has recently certified that, as one news article put it, "Iraq has met all but three of 18 original benchmarks set by Congress last year to measure security, political and economic progress." Even more heartening has been progress that's not measured by the benchmarks. More than 90,000 Iraqis, many of them Sunnis who once fought against the government, have signed up as Sons of Iraq to fight against the terrorists. Nor do they measure Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki's new-found willingness to crack down on Shiite extremists in Basra and Sadr City?actions that have done much to dispel suspicions of sectarianism.
The success of the surge has not changed Senator Obama's determination to pull out all of our combat troops. All that has changed is his rationale. In a New York Times op-ed and a speech this week, he offered his "plan for Iraq" in advance of his first "fact finding" trip to that country in more than three years. It consisted of the same old proposal to pull all of our troops out within 16 months. In 2007 he wanted to withdraw because he thought the war was lost. If we had taken his advice, it would have been. Now he wants to withdraw because he thinks Iraqis no longer need our assistance.
To make this point, he mangles the evidence. He makes it sound as if Prime Minister Maliki has endorsed the Obama timetable, when all he has said is that he would like a plan for the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops at some unspecified point in the future.
Senator Obama is also misleading on the Iraqi military's readiness. The Iraqi Army will be equipped and trained by the middle of next year, but this does not, as Senator Obama suggests, mean that they will then be ready to secure their country without a good deal of help. The Iraqi Air Force, for one, still lags behind, and no modern army can operate without air cover. The Iraqis are also still learning how to conduct planning, logistics, command and control, communications, and other complicated functions needed to support frontline troops.
No one favors a permanent U.S. presence, as Senator Obama charges. A partial withdrawal has already occurred with the departure of five "surge" brigades, and more withdrawals can take place as the security situation improves. As we draw down in Iraq, we can beef up our presence on other battlefields, such as Afghanistan, without fear of leaving a failed state behind. I have said that I expect to welcome home most of our troops from Iraq by the end of my first term in office, in 2013.
But I have also said that any draw-downs must be based on a realistic assessment of conditions on the ground, not on an artificial timetable crafted for domestic political reasons. This is the crux of my disagreement with Senator Obama.
Senator Obama has said that he would consult our commanders on the ground and Iraqi leaders, but he did no such thing before releasing his "plan for Iraq." Perhaps that's because he doesn't want to hear what they have to say. During the course of eight visits to Iraq, I have heard many times from our troops what Major General Jeffrey Hammond, commander of coalition forces in Baghdad, recently said: that leaving based on a timetable would be "very dangerous."
The danger is that extremists supported by Al Qaeda and Iran could stage a comeback, as they have in the past when we've had too few troops in Iraq. Senator Obama seems to have learned nothing from recent history. I find it ironic that he is emulating the worst mistake of the Bush administration by waving the "Mission Accomplished" banner prematurely.

I am also dismayed that he never talks about winning the war?only of ending it. But if we don't win the war, our enemies will. A triumph for the terrorists would be a disaster for us. That is something I will not allow to happen as president. Instead I will continue implementing a proven counterinsurgency strategy not only in Iraq but also in Afghanistan with the goal of creating stable, secure, self-sustaining democratic allies"

Whine, Whine, Whine .....

John McCain's Bad Day

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:49:38 EDT

Week 3 of the "new campaign" for McCain continues to be as poorly run as the "old campaign"

It has not been a tough few days for John McCain and today was no better. The picture below of the septuagenerian in a golf cart with Bush 41 is no help with Barack in the war zone with Gen. Petraeus (see my prior post). He needs the cart even more after today.

So how did the day go:

1) Gaffe - McCain was on all 3 morning shows. He referred to the Iraq/Afghan border w/ Diane Sawyer. Oops must be on that map with Czechoslovakia.

2) Whining - Sounding like Phil Gramm except on Barack's overseas trip he whined all day trying to get someone to listen to him. Even Bush 41 looked bored when listening.

3) Iraq Timetable I - while whining about the "surge" and Obama wants to "lose" the story of Iraqi support was reaffirmed in the tapes of Maliki's der Spiegel comments, regardless of the walk back on them.

4) Iraq Timetable II - in Iraq today Maliki w/ Barack reiterated the comments about 2010 being right for a pullout. McCain continues whining over "winning"..."losing one war to fight another" ....blah, blah...

5) NYT rejects his OpEd piece - the NYT rejected the whining piece that McCain wrote because it offered no specific proposals or clarification of his odeas on Iraq, only whining and the same criticism of Obama we heard all day.

6) Polls - Gallup shows Obama with biggest lead in a month.....

7) Gas Prices - new attack ad is out blaming Barack for high gas prices...Huh??No one will buy this nonsense

8) Talk Shows - even the Fox gang thinks McCain is in trouble on Iraq.....and that Obama looks good on tour.... even Charles Krauthammer said so.....

And it is only Monday .... if McCain keeps this progress up all week he is going to have a doozy compared to Barack who will be on w/ every major news anchor, w/ more world leaders daily, photo ops galore and the whine will only get louder.... Stay tuned

Bush 41 - A Class Act - Read His Quote

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:22:43 EDT

The former president says of McCain, “My respect for him knows no bounds.”

Still, he wishes Obama well on his overseas trip, says he hopes he’ll get an especially warm welcome in Berlin.

Obama and McCain in Pictures Today ! WOW

John Nail — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:09:54 EDT

The day in images It's not really close: By Ben Smith 03:03 PM

The day in images

It's not really close:

By Ben Smith 03:03 PM

Jim Wooten - AJC - You Are Wrong!

John Nail — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 10:45:18 EDT

Jim Wooten, the senior political writer for the AJC wrote a piece today saying Obama will never win GA and all the talk about it is simply election year spin.

http://www.ajc.com/opinion/content/shared-blogs/ajc/thinkingright/entries/2008/07/18/despite_hype_obama_wont_carry.html

My analysis and response is below:

Jim, I am a bit of a student of history and in essence your position is - the past here predicts the future - so let’s ignore the facts of 2008 and not even examine them as a point of interest. Nice reporting.

Since you won't do the work let me see if I can lay out some facts.

· There are already 800,000 more registered voters than 4 years ago.

· We have a black candidate in a state that is roughly 28% African American and nearly 500,000 of them unregistered and for the last 3 months the Obama campaign has been working this group hard.

· GA gave Obama one of his most decisive primary wins with huge turnout despite the number you reference in turnout. The primary was early and had it come later as the Obama enthusiasm grew it would have been even more so.

· With 245 Obama fellows in GA this summer and now a full campaign staff in place to push voter registration thru the deadline on 10/5 these folks will be registered. The work they are doing to organize the community is terrific.

· McCain has and will not have any organized team here. They are relying on the state party and the regional HQ in Jacksonville (per Macon paper this week)

· Bob Barr will get some amount of the vote here - 4% + and McCain is in real trouble.

· Enthusiasm for McCain is tepid at best in all polls.

· Your old adage that young folks don't vote has not and will not apply this election year and the polls are showing that this is not the case.

· GA full time staff – I reiterate this as the 150 staffers and the army of committed volunteers they are organizing statewide will drive the results and get the vote out as never before – if you need to see impact of the ground game ask Hillary.

All of the above are facts some from your own comments others from local and national sources.

Bob Novak's column yesterday seems willing to deal with some facts:

"Carrying Georgia
Republican strategists now are privately conceding that the GOP could lose Georgia's 15 presidential electors for the first time since 1992 because of Bob Barr's ballot position as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate.
The most recent Georgia survey by the polling firm InsiderAdvantage, conducted July 2, shows 46 percent for Sen. John McCain, 44 percent for Sen. Barack Obama and 4 percent for Barr. George W. Bush, who carried all 11 states of the old Confederacy in both 2000 and 2004, had 58 percent of Georgia's vote in the last election.
Third party presidential candidates almost always run more poorly in the actual election than their showing in the polls, but Barr as a former Republican congressman from Georgia might sustain support in his home state. He already has slipped a little in Georgia, based on his 5.6 percent standing in the June 19 InsiderAdvantage poll, when McCain had a lead of 1.6 percentage points."

So let’s summarize for the fact challenged:

1) Voter registration is already up and growing as the campaign pushes registration

1A) African Americans will turn out in record numbers to vote and vote for Obama as they did in the primaries

2) Obama has a large, organized team here and lots of volunteers to drive above, canvass and GOTV - McCain has nothing

3) Ad money will flow here to support the ground game

4) Obama has huge enthusiasm - McCain can't wake people up.

5) Bob Barr is going to get enough of the vote to push thus into the margin of error at least

6) In a close race the enthusiasm, staff and volunteers will get the Obama voters out just like they did across the country in the primaries. Think Rove and Ohio in 2004.

7) If the late national polls show an Obama lead ( a decent bet) unenthused McCain voters will stay home while the well organized Obama GOTV teams will do their jobs.

By late October McCain will wish he had put money and org. into GA as it will be too late then to reverse the momentum and save the state.

Lets compare notes on Nov. 7th and see whether my analysis vs. your same old same old view is right.

I'll bet you a Bruster's ice cream cone I'm right.

Sam Nunn is our best VP Pick

John Nail — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 13:28:45 EDT

I love Bill Richardson and Joe Biden and Tim Kaine, but Sam Nunn has such a unique pedigree and gravitas that he would immediately give Barack the help he needs on the security issue.

I have been watching the Security summit in Purdue and Nunn would be superb, a great #2 like Cheney without a NeoCon agenda....and no long term Presidential aspirations so his counsel and behavior will be supportive not positioning for his own long term aspirations.

AND - he would help us here in GA as well as NC,SC, MS, SD,ND,MT and a host of other places where an old southerner white guy with mega credibility would anchor any issues folks have on the experience side.

Oh and by the way Barack was spectacular hosting this event and showed a command of the issues of nuclear proliferation, biological threats and cyber security (McCain can't spell this issue)....he looked like a real leader today...

Quinnipiac Poll - Enthusiam Gap is Huge

John Nail — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:42:19 EDT

One of the hidden gems in the new poll that has Barack up by +9 is the number of voters that might change their mind - 23% overall.

However that is 18% of his supporters and a whopping 28% for McCain.

This screams out that McCain support is very squishy and at keast some of it is there for the taking as Barack continues to define himself for that independent voter...

How do people change their minds? They meet volunteers, friends, family members who support Barack...ie a great ground game....which McCain does not and will not have as well as lots of well placed events and media...and the debates.

So, Barack has his upcoming trip to Europe, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Middle East. This will make him look very Presidential and own the newscycle for a week.

The VP choice...

The Convention acceptance speech ...

The Debates....

And the hard work of all of field teams...

McCain's poor organization, terrible speaking style, side by side old vs, young comparisons that the debates will exacerbate, Bob Barr's impact in a number of states and ultimately 3-5% of McCain's supporters who stay home due their lack of enthusiam and final polls showing Barack ways ahead and a landslide is brewing...

Lets keep our fingers crossed..

McCain Commercials Tout Spanish as an American Language

John Nail — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:33:56 EDT

Ok , this is a teaser but after the nonsense this week from the right on Barack telling parents that Spanish as a language our kids should learn then McCain comes out with yet another of his Spanish language commericals....

So let me get this straight - English is the language of America, and those darned immigrants and our Hispanic citizens need to learn English...but while we pander for their votes we will talk to them in expensive ads in their native language??

Wow, that is a surprise...

How can McCain and all his surrogates miss this irony? Certainly "Noun.Vowel,9/11" Giuliani did...

I wonder if his family ever spoke Italian as he was growing up instead of the English that he insists on now...as he denigratesSpanish speaking immigrants... almost as well thought out as his inane Presidential campaign plan..

Jukebox John and His 61 Flip Flops (and counting)

John Nail — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:34:39 EDT

Jukebox John changes his tune every few minutes Posted July 8th, 2008 at 11:05 am

Share This | Spotlight | Permalink

Atrios mentioned yesterday, “…I don’t think the ‘Obama is a flip-flopper’ will be an especially useful line of attack for the McCain campaign, but it makes sense that they’re using it. The script is already written, making it easier for the barely literate cable newsers to run with it.”

To Mayor "Noun, Vowel, 9/11" Giuliani : Re: :"UnAmerican"

John Nail — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:50:27 EDT

From a "reformed Republican" White Boomer- Seeing Giuliani whose language skills are "noun, vowel, 9/11", Hannity (whose lack of intelligence should be an embarassment to his alama mater) and others take this so out of the context of a very productive discussion makes me sick. It disgusts me to personally witness a "crime" here....a hijacking or kidnapping of common sense and truth.

Now Barack is "un- Amanerican" and elitist again??

I was at the rally where this entire comment on learning Spanish and other languages as an American AND for immigrants of course needing to learn English came up. In fact it riffed out of a discussion around Barack's plan for early childhood education - THE most important thing we need to do for our kids...

The entire audience - which was 85%++ Black - agreed. As part of a better educational system that helps get our kids and country ready for the future language skills are important - as a are a host of other subjects,skills, programs like gym and art and music....just like all of us had who are Boomers growing up...AND - GASP!!! More parental responsibilty and involvement and accountability...

The book and movie the "Ugly American" 45 years ago first addressed American shortcomings in being multi lingual...this has been our problem for decades...

The luddites who think that any of us or our kids learning to speak Spanish, French, Russian, Chinese or any of the major world's languages is unamerican needs to have their head examined..

We are in, have been in and will forever now be part of a global economy and for our kids it will be all they know...we better have them prepared gto play. While we are important in it we longer are the only game in town - and have not been for a long time.

American arrogance or in this case narrow minded stupidity leads us nowhere in an accelerating, complex, global economy...

My Real Highlight from Powder Springs Town Hall

John Nail — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 23:09:01 EDT

Hopefully you have read my previous post on what a great experience I had yesterday asking a major question etc...

The real highlight came at the very end when we were waiting for Barack to come down the fence line and shake hands.

I am a big man and was in the front and behind me were 2 black women and a little boy - 4 or 5 years old. They were both fairly short and even if they were up further probably would not have been able to get a handshake. In fact all they wanted was for the little boy to see Barack up close and shake his hand.I never got there names or a picture... I wish I had ....

I heard them behind me and said hand him to me I'll hold him up so he can see and get his handshake. They handed him to me, I got him up as high as I could with my right arm and Barack came up, shook my left hand and walked on missing the boy's hand in the crowd and chaos.

I yelled "Barack, you missed the little boy's hand". He stopped, stepped back a half step looked up and grabbed the boys little hand in a combo high five/shake and kept on moving....

I turned around to the excited ladies, one was in tears and I said to the somewhat surprised boy, "You just shook the next President's hand!!"...."And you can be president someday too" ...

And that is the real truth of Barack's campaign and 2008 ...and this special moment for me - a 55 year old "reformed Republican" who has lived thru the 1960's, the civil rights movement, the murders of JFK, Martin Luther King and RFK and the continuing changes in our society...

Yes We Can - finally - Thank God!

A "Reformed Republican" Controlled the News Cycle for a Day - Flip Flop Question in GA

John Nail — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 22:47:56 EDT

Yesterday I was fortunate enough to see Barack at the Town Hall in Powder Springs, GA. I had seen him in Hickory, NC and he was great there in May but yesterday he was truly spectacular.He clearly is even a better campaigner than he was in the primaries now that he is the nominee. He keeps grwoing and becoming a "better nominee" as he told his staff he needs to become.

I also got to ask a question - the second question of the day. He turned all the way to his left looked over my way and said "the guy in the checked shirt" - I was wearing a bright madras shirt on purpose to stand out in the crowd and it worked, my chance was here...

I got the mike and introduced myself as a "reformed Republican" - the crowd erupted at that in a huge roar and appluase. Barack laughed and noted that I had gotten the greatest crowd reaction of the day - even beating him..

I proceeded to tell Barack that I had worked for Bobby Kennedy four decades ago and thanked him for his leadership and restoring "my faith"in politics. As the crowd clapped at my mention of RFK, looking right at me he humbly dipped his head slightly and mouthed "Thank you"...clearly he appreciates that type of comment and the responsibility that it brings...it only reinforced my feelings on what a special, down to earth human being he is.

"You had an interesting week off being accused of flip-flopping, which is mostly nonsense," "Particularly on Iraq where nothing has changed". I then asked Barack to restate his Iraq position to make this clear once and for all and Barack used the opportunity to dispel the idea he had changed his stances on a range of issues.

See it on "Hardball" here..

Afterwards all sorts of other people, staffers etc came up and thanked me for a great question. Welcoming me "back" to the party - I still consider myself an Independent... Barack not the Dems has earned my allegiance.

Well I thought I might get on the local Atlanta news, which at least his answer to me did BUT the entire sequence including me was on CNN briefly early in the afternoon, his "clarifying his move to the center" was talked about on every news program, was picked up by AP and then by every major newspaper - NY Times, Time, CNN, Washington Post, Boston Globe, LA Times and many, many more hundreds more..see ABC here.

Keith Olberman's show opened with the topic even showing a photo of me for a few seconds as part of the lead in to the Countdown...

Hannity and Colmes, Anderson Cooper, Chris Matthews, and more all covered the topic with video clips of Barack's great answer....

The power of the 24 hour news cycle and the Internet and a good question I had thought alot about because I was sick of listening to the flip flop nonsennse all weekend.

Now I can't forget to tell you that I got to shake his hand and get my "Audacity of Hope" signed as well.

..... see my next post as the true highlight of the day though...

Barack Answers My Question on Time.com

John Nail — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 16:18:08 EDT

I am the unidentified questioner in this Time.com post and the person Barack is pointing to here...

Obama Denies Shift to Political Center

Associated Press

The Illinois Senator is asked by a voter about accusations of flip-flopping at Georgia town hall, denies that he’s been shifting stances on Iraq, guns, and the death penalty to attract more moderate voters.

“You’re not going to agree with me on 100 percent of what I think, but don’t assume that if I don’t agree with you on something that it must be because I’m doing that politically.”

McCain camp responds: “Barack Obama is wrong: everyone’s been listening and still nobody knows what Barack Obama truly believes.” Read it here. Permalink

Simple Choice - Harvard Law Review Editor vs. 894/899 In His Annapolis Class

John Nail — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 22:36:30 EDT

I must admit that I view someone's educational background and performance seriously and the headline of this post says it all.

The privileged son and grandson of Admirals graduates at almost the bottom of his class at Annapolis. He admits to being a screw off at the Academy and was allowed to get away with it still gets to be a fighter pilot.

I doubt others that low in their class became fighter pilots, more likely IF they got to fly at all flew cargo planes....he crashed 3 planes...

Today he admits to not knowing how to use a computer and is not an economic experienced powerhouse. In other words he is a Luddite and he is 71 years old...and this near last in his class maverick wants to lead us into the future.

He is a very honorable man, a war hero, a warrior cut from a cloth of the past, but not a real thinker capable of leading a struggling country into a globally competitive future.

Contrast Barack who came from nothing with a single mother, he is black, lived in Indonesia and Hawaii and has earned his way up every step of the ladder by his intellect and performance. No father or grandfather to help him climb the ladder or protect him if he faltered. Classic American story!

Columbia, Harvard Law, the first black of the Law Review and a man who has spent his life since college and law school in on the ground public service focused on organizing people in their communities to come together and help themselves.

Barack is 46, a dedicated husband and father of 2 young daughters and has organized the best political campaign in modern history. He has upset the Clinton dynasty en route to enabling a movement based on the revolutionary power of the Internet to raise money and engage volunteers of all ages in ways that has never happened before.

A gifted thinker and writer and powerful orator he has energized people at a time when we need a leader. His power is not in his power but in his ability to touch and motivate people to come together to help themselves and their country.

If you simply look at the main issue being the challenges of the future in a "flat" globalized and competitive world who is better prepared to help America meet its challenges?

An old warrior who screwed off at school and got away with it because of his military pedigree and came home to go into politics and become a "maverick" in D.C.?

Or a young middle aged family man who has earned his way up through the finest educational institutions and excelled on his own whose lifetime work involves helping others on the ground?

Easy decision for me....Yes We can!!!

McCain's "Looney Tunes" Economic Plan

John Nail — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 14:03:02 EDT

Trying to get a handle on the reality or lack thereof of today's recycled economic plan reminds of Elmer Fudd tracking Bugs Bunny....he can't ever find him and that is exactly like the McCain "plan"...you can't get your arms around it...

A few of the key elements to the plan:

Ending the "wars"
Balancing the Budget by 2013 on he back of discretionary spending by:
- Getting a line item veto
- Refusing to sign any legislation with pork in it
- Cutting out waste in programs
- Reforming Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid
Extending the Bush Tax cuts
Higher economic growth rates to drive revenues
Federal gas tax holiday for 3 months (Yes, this tired old shoe reappears)
Implementing his absolutely inane health plans and tax credit sheme

I am missing something here or has Sen. McCain been smoking something funny?May be he is injecting something....this stuff is from outer space...he really did mean it when he said he doesn't understand economics...

How he can accomplish any of these things is unclear - esp. the wars when best case is that Iraq winds down and Afghanistan will require more money. Also the build up of the military will continue to add nearly 100,000 more troops et al....and he wants a long term presence in Iraq...

SO - even if we cut him slack on this one balancing the budget when only attacking discretionary spending that is impossible.

Getting a line item veto from a Democratic Congress will be impossible - Clinton couldn't do it.

Reforming SS. medicare et al are not wave a wand deals either ...

Where are higher growth rates going to come from with a sinking dollar (that may help a little) , the housing and credit crisis and increasing unemployment??

What is left ehre other than maybe some psychedlic music in the smoke and purple haze and Jim Morrison back from the dead....and then we can wake wake up from this dream and chase Bugs Biunny or Daffy Duck some more...

This guy is not only old but clueless...

McCain Concedes Barack's Patriotism - Thank God!

John Nail — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 13:42:56 EDT

Breaking: McCain Campaign "Concedes" That Obama Is Patriotic By Greg Sargent - July 7, 2008, 10:20AM

This line from a top McCain adviser, in a Politico article on Obama's efforts to convince the electorate that he's American through and through, is unintentionally funny and revealing:

"We don't want to talk about his patriotism and character," said McCain adviser Charlie Black. "We concede that he's a patriot and person of good character. This is about big issues."

It kind of says it all that to this senior McCain campaign hand, acknowledging that Obama is patriotic is a concession.

McCain's Technology Policy? There is none..

John Nail — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 13:41:08 EDT

Political observers have made much of John McCain's admission that he cannot use a computer without assistance. In a campaign where McCain's opponent is 25 years younger than him, the factoid is potent ammunition for those who argue McCain is out of touch and too old for the presidency. But not knowing your way around a MacBook doesn't mean you can't be president. And McCain's personal Ludditism isn't a deal breaker for tech leaders. "I don't give a damn if McCain ever turns on a computer or not," Michael Arrington, co-editor of the blog techCrunch wrote in January. "I just want a president who has the right top-down polices to support the information economy."

Obama Supporters - Time to Grow Up - Part 2

John Nail — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:30:57 EDT

I am sick and tired of Barack getting excoriated for flip flopping and moving the the "center" - especially from the left. He is and never has been a left wing loon, though many would like to put him there and have him stay out on the fringe where presidential candidates go to die - Stevenson, McGovern, Carter, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry to name the most recent.

I personally am pleased to see his practical side coming out. If he were not coming out with these nuanced positions he would be being tarred and feathered as a the "most left wing liberal in the Senate" moniker". Governing requires intelligence, common sense and consensus - not ideology and partisanship. We've had the latter for 8 years and look where we are.

To me "change we can believe in" involves practical views and honest appraisals - not sound bites. Listening to real answers takes time, not 30 second hits on CNN. Barack challenges us with his nuanced and thoughtful views - at least he thinks them through.

Lets look at the list of "flip flops" and assess if there is a real issue here:

1) Campaign Finance - Barack has chosen the route to win , i.e. he is bringing a "gun to the knife fight". The Republicans are now showing how they play within the rules with their special state funds, the Republican Governors Fund etc. Do you really think that this would not have happened if Barack had taken public funding? The RNC alone has nearly a $50m advantage over the DNC. Accepting the funding limits and playing by the rules would have been suicide and insanity. Barack showed his practical - and gasp "political" - side here...oh my God he is a "politician" .... and a good one from Chicago! Did he break his word? No. An answer on a questionnaire is hardly swearing on the Bible and he said all along that the campaigns would talk...

You have to win to govern and the Republicans are going to go down biting, scratching and clawing as we are seeing - and it is only going to get worse now that McCain has changed his campaign structure and elevated the Rovians...

If this really bothers you - which it doesn't bother 99% of all voters just pundits and the press - vote for Ralph Nader or even better my useless former congresswoman Cynthia McKinney.

2) FISA - Does anyone in the MyOb group of over 10,000 really understand this issue? It is about listening to the calls and emails of foreigners that pass thru the US via technology. Yes he said he would fight it if the immunity piece were there BUT overall we need the bill to fight terrorism. It is imperfect - yes - but overall is needed. Politics is compromise and Barack's actions here to me show him as Presidential - acting for the greater good - rather than pandering to the left...read his answer to the group. Is the immunity that may be changed a deal breaker?

If this really bothers you as the most important issue of our time see voting options above....

3) Second Amendment - Barack's position here is clear and consistent - going back to his books - he fully supports the 2nd amendment but says communities do have the right to regulate certain aspects - just like in free speech where it is illegal to yell "Fire" in a crowded theater. Whether the DC gun ban was right or not is now irrelevant - the Court said it is not - but did not say appropriate regulations were illegal....

If you are a law abiding gun owner like 99.9% of the country Barack is your friend....if you are anti gun leftie get over it...the Constitution governs here..move on to real issues.

4) Death Penalty - Barack has always supported the death penalty for certain heinous crimes - read his books.... Supporting it for child rape to me is consistent - as a father of 2 daughters like Barack - I'd want anyone killed who hurt my girls...end of story.

5) Faith based support - Having worked here in Atlanta with our 100,000+ Katrina refugees I can personally attest to the power of the resources of our faith based community. Without them we could never have handled our new neighbors and their needs. The government had no resources to do it. From that experience I realized how much these churches and groups do on a daily basis as part of their ministries.

Why would we not try and support helping people thru existing organizations and networks? Just because Pres. Bush did we should not? What a load of crap! Bush is right on this one!

Barack knows from his roots as an organizer how important these churches and their work are. Personally I do not care whether you are Protestant, Catholic, Baptist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim, atheist or an other flavor if you are trying to help people in your community as long as you are not proselytizing...keep up the good work - Barack will get you more resources...thanks for doing the good work of the Lord, your God or simply out of human decency we applaud you.

6) Iraq - "We are going to be as thoughtful getting out of Iraq as were were careless going in" - that has always been Barack's overarching policy on the war he opposed and he has stated it hundreds of times on the stump.

He has stated that he would pull out the the troops 1-2 brigades per month and have them all out in 16 months. for this he is criticized by McCain as naive, not listening to the commanders, looking at the success of the surge blah, blah, blah... pls reread the paragraph above....

Now when Barack says he is going to meet with the commanders, look at the situation and assess the situation he is hit from the media like he is a lying flip flopper who cannot be trusted (McCain).

If you believe that he is not going to end the war see voting options in item #1 above. If you think that all the troops will be home in 16 months and if they are not you will feel betrayed, Ditto #1 above.

The next President is inheriting a complex mess that impacts our troops,their families, 25 million Iraqis and the entire Middle East and world thanks to Bush's "carelessness getting in".

Respect Barack at this word that he is going to end the war and "be as thoughtful getting out as we were careless getting in". He is going to need some room to do this and all of our support...not any Monday morning quarterbacking.

The real issue of this campaign is the long term viability of America as a world power. This involves the complex interweaving of the economy, energy, education, healthcare, the environment,a global war with radical Islam and empowering people to make a difference under the principals of our Founders...

Our system is rotten in DC and our problems did not just happen. Solving them is not going to occur overnite by electing Barack and sending him into the lions den of DC full of pretty words and idealism...

Winning this election is going to be hard work and changing the country is going to be even harder.

Are you in to win the long fight or to whine about some smaller items that in the end arguing over do not help us change our country?

The Republicans think many of us are sniveling left wingers who will lose out stomach in a real battle and war...lets not prove them right.

Healthcare Group Forms around Elizabeth Edwards - $40 M Campaign

John Nail — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:20:03 EDT

RNC Creates (and funds) "Independent Group" to target Obama

John Nail — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:17:12 EDT

Another told you so moment... Don't think for a moment that the McCain team isn't using all the loopholes to skirt the "public financing" they have tried to pillory us for not taking...

What utter nonsense the whole campaign finance, holier than though McCain camp throws around...

McCain's Regional Campaign Structure Going Away?

John Nail — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 16:12:56 EDT

Read here...

We told you a month ago this was a stupid idea....

And our post on their disorganized campaign...

Just another month wasted by the seat of the pants McCain campaign

"Bobby" - SCOTUS and the 2nd Amendment This Week

John Nail — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 21:59:38 EDT

I just watched the movie "Bobby' for the first time and at the end my 6 year old daughter asked me why I was crying....

I worked for RFK as a 15 year old in Indiana in 1968 and one of the worst moments of my life was my mother waking me for school up on June 6,1968 and telling me RFK had been assassinated. The image and reality still make me tear up and make me sad...what could have been...we'll never know...

40 years later...40 years...and tens of thousands of gun deaths later as a nation we cannot come up with a way to respect the 2nd amendment rights (which like Barack I support 100%)for hunters et al and protect the average person by keeping guns away from criminals and in cities.

The Founders NEVER planned the Declaration and Constitution to apply to non property owners, women or blacks yet today we all celebrate the inclusiveness of their original words and the Court and laws since have recognized "modern" realities.

Why can't we view the 2nd Amendment the same way - in the lens of modern urban society - and apply the Constitution in the same way individual rights have been viewed...

Something tells me if Jefferson et al were here today they'd be fighting for changes that protected "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" in a modern way ...just like Barack is...

Why Barack is for Real - Best Story from our House Party

John Nail — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 21:22:05 EDT

As my prior post mentioned we had a number of great stories from people as to why they were supporters but this one really summed up Barack's appeal.

A retired black gentleman who says he is the only Democrat in his nice neighborhood told the story of how he was in DC last June and stopped in to visit his Congressman, a very famous civil rights leader. In this man's office were 3 walls full of plaques - every award he had ever won. Newspaper clippings were everywhere. It was all about him, not his district etc. He was really stunned and disappointed by what he saw. It was over the top.

He decided to drop into Barack's office as he was following him a bit and while there thought the visit would be interesting. What he found was an entirely different environment. In Barack's office there were no walls full of awards and press clippings. He had pictures of Michelle and his girls on his desk and a landscape scene on the wall.

Then and there he decided that Barack was his man. His office was not a museum or temple to himself and that told this man that what he was seeing and had read about Barack was the real deal. His motives and motivation were NOT self centered but truly focused on helping people.

He told the staff that he wanted to donate to the campaign and took out his checkbook to write a check for the full $2300!! They told him they could not handle the matter there and directed him to the DC campaign office where he walked and made his donation.

Now all his family is engaged and he is looking to work hard for the campaign....

Atlanta Unite House Party Report - Why Barack is Going to Win

John Nail — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 21:02:56 EDT

I went to a local house party put on by some deeply involved volunteers - Jeff and Lou Joslin - who have worked in 5 states - in their spare time and now are helping get Atlanta organized...Thanks for your hospitality and leadership!!

The singular most amazing thing was the 30 or so of us there were , as I joked - "looked more like the McCain demographic" than Obama's. A good mix of men, women, black and white.In our largely "red" neighborhood I think everyone was pleased to meet other committed souls.

We did have an Obama fellow there - a young lady and recent HS grad who was very poised and articulate who had spent last summer in Panama involved in community organizing and work there.

Our average age was over 50, probably closer to 60 - Boomers- and the wonderful stories that people shared for why they were there were all different but shared some very common themes:
1) Deep concern for where the country is in general and the impact of the last 8 years - even more so the worst we middle aged folks had seen

2) A concern for the future if things do not change for everyone's kids and grandkids

3) A need to get our education system in line so that all kids have a chance to succeed.

4) An understanding that we all need to get involved before it is too late to change things

5) An enthusiasm for having been moved by a leader who is not more of the same, a DC insider.....

So why was this so unique? This was no group of kids or minorities or the other groups that the pundits always focus on but successful, concerned, grey haired people concerned about their country. Moved by a leader to get up and act.

Not wild eyed optimists that the world is going to change easily but moved to act - many for the first time ever - or like me for the first time in 40 years. If our little group is any example of at least some of what happened to day the grassroots are not just kids and African Americans but serious adults, with life experience and resources willing to step to the plate because they believe in the truth and leadership Barack is providing.

Those of us old enough to remember the 1968 and 1972 elections Nixon always spoke of the "silent majority" and their voting power...

This group of boomers is the new majority (think Dennis Hopper) and is not going to be silent it appears and let the America we inherited fall backward and lose our position in the world....watch out John McCain because our generation wants a new direction and is willing to work for it....add the other core demographics to us and it is going to be a landslide for Barack!!

John McCain Radar Joins the Family

John Nail — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 12:04:46 EDT

OK - I felt sorry that McCain can't use a computer so I broke down and created a one page spot to visit that even he should be able to figure out.

We have now added www.johnmccainradar.com to the barackobamaradar.com family for tracking the daily news flow at the grassroots level. News updates hourly from over 2000 local and national sources.

Check them both out. Each links to the other as well as a page that tracks the major blogs and news outlets as well as a state specific page for each.

This is a work in process so changes will occur daily.

Obama Supporters - Time to Grow Up and Get Real !!

John Nail — Sun, 22 Jun 2008 18:28:19 EDT

Over the past few days I have been amazed at the media and many blog comments I have seen about a number of recent actions by Barack and the campaign,

There is real shock that he is not some idealistic dreamer who wants to sit around and sing kumbaya and let the Republicans play him for a chump like Gore and Kerry let themselves be played - especially Kerry....

My gosh he wants to "bring a gun to a knife fight"....

Two major items - the 10 Town Hall Meetings McCain wants and opting out of a campaign finance system that is inane, outdated and would handcuff the campaign to do what is needed to win. 10% of Americans check off the box on their tax returns for it. Do they really care how campaigns are financed? Duh...

Fact #1 - Politicians run for election to win. There is no second place and no second chance.

Fact #2 - Not running to win and doing everything within your power legally and morally to win after becoming the nominee and getting so many people excited would be both an insane and tantamount to a criminal act especially after the ineffective campaigns of Gore and Kerry.

Fact #3 - You have to win to govern and enact change. Change does not come from pretty words - it comes from winning - the bigger the better. Ruthlessness is a good thing when used right. Ask the Kennedy's, They were the masters.

So with these 3 facts in mind lets examine these 2 items in detail:

1) Public Financing - So what that we said we would do it if they did a year ago? Times change. We won and have proven to be able to get the normal person like us to fund the campaign. That is REVOLUTIONARY! Never been done before. A HUGE advantage.

But - poor John McCain can't raise money to save his life on his own so he will take the $85M PLUS all the games the RNC and these special state funds they have set up will let them get away with all the time crying foul and calling Barack names...with our own money - and lots of it we will make the McCain campaign have to spread itself thin and keep pouring resources at their weak points - like the water is doing to the levees....or you do in war.

Not using all the resources and all the US map to compete if you can would have been like telling Eisenhower on D-Day land on only Omaha beach - Hitler has not finished fortifying the others as well and it wouldn't be fair to exploit that. Or in sports Boston saying - "Poor Lakers", we are killing them lets sit our starters to make it closer and let them win another game..

Money IS the game especially the way Barack is raising it...it is game, set and match...why give up an advantage...especially as a newcomer who is combatting racist and religious slurs and is trying to become the first Black president...an uphil incline in any event historically.

John Kerry's Manager said this week that the biggest mistake they made in 2004 was sticking with the public system....

As Al Gore reminded us this week "votes matter"....in Ohio on 2004 if just 10 more people voted for kerry in every precinct - 10 - he would have won...10...forget FL in 2000....money and organization (which requires money to pay for it) wins elections. Period.

2) 10 Town Halls - OK, who would win here? Forget the head to head stuff - Barack will make McCain look old and tired and grumpy one on one.. even though everyone says McCain is good in these formats. Is he really good or simply does not suck like he does at giving a simple teleprompter speech? Good compared to who???

All these events would do is get him free media since he is very limited in what he can spend otherwise.

So - these have nothing to do with the "historic nature" of the events they would drive free media that would help McCain more than Obama since we can afford to pay for what we want...

Once again - why help the enemy??? And frankly 10 of these things??? I am a political junkie but Barack has more to do with 2 weeks (1 day/week x10) of his time over the next 10 weeks than this. McCain has had 3 months to raise money (which he has done a mediocre job of) and get his campaign organized - which they have done a poor job of...partly due to money issues.

What does all this mean?? Does changing his mind on the money and not wanting to do events that only help his opponent stretch his meager resources further make Barack someone who can't be trusted, who is just more of the same old politics in a pretty new package yadda, yadda, yadda...

Of course not!! As I have said before "Politics ain't beanbags" and the end game is winning so that you can change things for the country and help people who need it...

We are also seeing Barack start to look at things pragmatically - like FISA that is not something the liberal left likes.

Barack is not a left wing bleeding heart liberal - he is a tough,realitic pragmatist who is running to govern the country for all of us. Fairly, honestly and decently. We are not going to like everything he is going to do or some of the compromises and changes in positions he will have to take once he is sworn in and is Commander in Chief...it is a brutally tough job that he is goingto take on for us all.

What is clear is where his heart is, that he is smart and thoughtful and will not rush into things half assed and that is a huge improvement. He is not afraid to tell the truthbut not above out figthing the etablishment at its own game...that alone is a great start as we are seeing as the general election starts.

Why we Opted Out- McCain Financing Structure With RNC Skirts Intention Of Public Finance

John Nail — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 09:09:57 EDT

This article describes exactly why Barack rigthly decided to opt out of the public financing system.

The media has been abuzz over speculation that John McCain will accept public financing in the general election. The attention has overshadowed a new fund structure that will allow the McCain camp to collect significantly more money than the individual limits placed by the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform bill.

The Wall Street Journal reports on the details of McCain's fund:

GA - TIED!!! - Insider Advantage Poll

John Nail — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:24:26 EDT

ATLANTA -- A brand new poll shows presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama are neck and neck in Georgia.The InsiderAdvantage poll has Senator McCain at 44 percent and Senator Obama at 43 percent. Former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr has six percent and seven percent of Georgia voters are undecided.Political analyst Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage, discussed what the numbers mean on WSB-TV Channel 2 Thursday."The race is in the south now," said Towery. "Georgia is basically tied between Barack Obama and John McCain."Towery went on to explain why. "One, Georgia has a very high African-American voter age population which guarantees Obama a cushion. Secondly, independent voters are in the direction of Obama, they are going about 10 points in the direction of Obama. McCain continues to stay strong among those who are older voters, from 45-65 and over, but Bob Barr cuts into that a little bit and it makes for a very, very tight race."Towery said the Obama camp said they are going to take to the airwaves soon, which shows him they want an advantage in Georgia."This thing is going to be a battle and the new battleground runs from Virginia, to North Carolina, to Florida -- with Georgia being ground zero," said Towery.Click Here to read Matt Towery's complete analysis on the numbers.

Toddlers for Obama - fun video

John Nail — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 20:57:10 EDT

Toddlers for Obama - fun video

Track the Rumors in Real Time - See website Below

John Nail — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:26:55 EDT

Bookmark this page and track tHE major nonsense that is out there and fight it.

This site accesses thousands of news and blog sources every 15 minutes 7X24X365.

http://www.theindustryradar.com/index.cfm?account=obama08&page=Smears

Digusting Racist Button from TX Rep. Convention

John Nail — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:21:06 EDT

Expect the Republican party to do absolutely nothing about the racists in its own midst. The national Republican party in Washington has contacts all the time with its state parties. I'm sure there's money involved, and you'd better believe that when John McCain visits the states, he meets with local party officials.

Read

Barack Obama Radar - Sunday Analysis - Father's Day Speech

John Nail — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 08:39:29 EDT

If radar you have not discovered www.barackobamaradar.com yet you need to. it is a great place to see all the news of the day as it is seen at each state level as well as the day's news, blogs et al from the mainstream media and major political blogs.

Think of this analysis like a newspaper clipping service on steroids. 20 clips found. I decided to do a quick analysis this morning of the reach of the Senator's speech yesterday using 2 simple metrics:

States - How many states had at least on mention of it on their pages

9 states - Il, NY, GA, WA, KY, TX,TN, OR,ARK - had at least 1 mention of it on their websites which means their TV stations and newspapers carried it

YouTube - how many views did the speech have on line (it was broadcast at least in part on CNN as well)

60,000++ - only posted after 8 PM last nite

Of the 20 clips - 6 were from TV stations the rest from newspapers...

What would the value be of people paying attention to this speech in the local media be?

General - Reinforces Barack's family and values image
Religion - He is preaching in a Christian church reinforcing the obvious (5/9 states were southern)
Outreach - evangelicals are a major outreach and this helps there
Sunday news cycle - another day we lead
Long Tail - the video and images will be on YouTube as a resource to point to for skeptics on both his values and religion that will be found by thousands in coming months

None of this counts the national coverage which was consistent across all networks on an otherwise quiet day.

Overall - good coverage, broadly distributed....and free.....the best kind

Why is Bill Richardson in Israel?? VP or Secy of State??

John Nail — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 08:02:35 EDT

It is nice for him to have the guise of his state to go to Israel. I am sure that he and Olmert discussed Obama as well in the course of their meeting.....

Olmert meets Bill Richardson

Gov. Bill Richardson

JERUSALEM (AP) - Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has met with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who is a former diplomat and presidential candidate.

A statement from Olmert's office says that in their Sunday meeting, they discussed Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian peace efforts. Also, they talked about increasing cooperation between Israel and New Mexico.

The Internet Gap - Can McCain compete with Obama online?

John Nail — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:18:31 EDT

"I think we have a strong online operation," said Mark Soohoo, McCain's deputy e-campaign director. "It was good enough in the primaries."

I am not sure what he is smoking but read the article and see the real differences...

Georgia may be competitive in presidential election - AJC

John Nail — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 17:05:02 EDT

Georgia may be competitive in presidential election

By AARON GOULD SHEININ
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 06/15/08

The last time a presidential race was competitive in Georgia, the Atlanta Braves were defending world champions and gasoline cost about $1 a gallon.

Now, defying a dozen years of electoral history, Barack Obama — and a number of political pundits and experts — believes Georgia could be in play for a Democrat running for the White House.

Media Myths Hide McCain Campaign's Total Weakness

John Nail — Sun, 15 Jun 2008 09:17:45 EDT

This is a great article by Frank Rich on how the media is trying to convince us that McCain is a choice for Clinton Democrats - and his across the board weaknesses from his base through fundraising....

How much do the Republican base dislike him? He has 5000 donors who are maxed out- Bush had 63,000.....

Read Article Here

Help for GA in Play!! - Ron Paul, Bob Barr forming Alliance??

John Nail — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 18:34:00 EDT

Bob Barr, a former suburban Atlanta congressman, was already going to cause McCain trouble here in GA. If this alliance comes to pass the additional impact could be devastating.

RCP poll average is McCain +12.4 - latest from Rasmussen is McCain +10 ....if Barr siphons off 5-7% here the new voters and work being done by 265 organizing fellows this summer (only 200 in FL) could be all the difference.

The last poll was taken before Hillary exited and as women understand that McCain is so Pro-Life as to want Roe v. Wade overturned (even Bush never said that) the gap could get even tighter.

NC and VA are both now just 2 point spreads...SC and MT are 7, we are dead even in MO and up 6 in CO....flipping GA would be huge...stay tuned we'll keep posting on this..

Read the story here

barackobamaradar.com Launches - 50 State News, Blogs and More

John Nail — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 19:51:18 EDT

Please visit the new newssite that we launched today. This is the definiive place to get all the news you want locally and nationally about what is happening as it is happening:

www.barackobamaradar.com

50 State News for the 50 State campaign!! There is one page for all 51 states and the District and more in depth page for each state with the latest news, updated every hour from over 2000 local newspapers, business journals, TV and radio stations.

Also we have a page that aggregates over 30 feeds from all the major news bureaus and political bloggers to make it easy to scan all that is going on in one place.

You can subscribe, bookmark and share this with your friends and co-workers and felloe Obama supporters.

Please pass it on to everyone you know!!!

McCain Bad News Hit Parade- Only 37% of Repub. Voters "Enthusiastic" vs 63% of Dems

John Nail — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 16:13:18 EDT

Poll: Republican support, enthusiasm down Posted: 01:45 PM ET
From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser
A new poll shows Republicans are demoralized.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — The Republican party may face tough times at the polls come November, according to results of a new national survey.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Survey out Friday indicates that 2008 may not be a good year for Republicans up and down the ticket, even though most national surveys indicate the race for the White House between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama is quite close right now.

Interactive: Check out the latest poll numbers

Sixty-three percent of Democrats questioned say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this year. Only 37 percent of Republicans feel the same way, with 36 percent of Republicans saying they are not enthusiastic about voting.

McCain is a Technology Illiterate

John Nail — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 07:56:05 EDT

Tech illiterate by kos Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 04:30:20 PM PDT

There are those who chafe a bit when we take shots at McCain's age, but there's always a deeper point lurking behind many of those shots (cheap or not) -- leading the world's sole superpower in this digital era should require basic understanding of those things which drive the modern culture and economy. Asked whether he is a Mac or PC person, McCain answered:

Neither, I'm an illiterate that has to rely on my wife for all of the assistance I can get.

Atrios responds,

I think in 2008 computer use and understanding of the internet should be part of the basic skill set we expect from people in positions of prominent public leadership. It's pretty much impossible to have any kind of understanding of how people in the modern world go about their lives and work without that. The internet is not a fad or the playground for 17 year olds.

READ MORE

3600 Organizing Fellows Hit 17 States this Weekend - 265 in GA Alone

John Nail — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 07:13:35 EDT

As previously mentioned here - I have 2 staffers staying with me who have been getting this organized....a 3rd is joining us this weekend .... 17 states - 3600 organizers - 265 here, 200 in FL.... What is McCaib doing????
From the Washington Post - By Peter Slevin Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 13, 2008; Page A05

CHICAGO, June 12 -- Moving to harness the grass-roots energy that helped win the Democratic nomination, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign will deploy 3,600 volunteers in 17 states this weekend, each committed to six consecutive weeks of full-time political work.

Obama News by State - Check Out Barack Obama Radar

John Nail — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 23:58:02 EDT

Here you go. All the latest news updated hourly by state for Obama in one page. We access over 2000 local newspapers, business journals, TV and radio stations and parse them by state for your reading convenience.

Barack Obama Radar

Each state also has a dedicated page you can subscibe to or bookmark or simply visit as often as you want all day long

You can view on line, subscribe in your MyYahoo et al, your browser or even in Outlook 2007.

We will be adding policy news and top blogs and blog topics as well in coming days....

Enjoy....and share with your friends and other local lists

Bill O'Reiily/Laura Ingrahm Call Smear Website - "Brilliant"

John Nail — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 23:49:12 EDT

On O'Reilly both Bill and Laura called the new smear website "brilliant"...thought McCain could learnb from this...first though he needs to learn how to use a PC...

Also both they and others say that Michelle should be off limits for personal attacks - only to question her on policy issues she may bring up.

All agree that attacking her will hurt with the public especially independents....just like it did in 1992on Hillary back then

O'Reilly even said he thought that the personal attacks on the Obamas were way over the top...

Bill O'Reilly likes Barack and is a fair guy....others like Hannity on Fox are idiots but Bill is a "stand up guy" just like he calls Barack....

NC - More Bad News for McCain - Its in Play - Only up 2

John Nail — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 21:48:58 EDT

Poll Suggests Obama Is Putting North Carolina In Play By Eric Kleefeld - June 12, 2008, 1:33PM

Barack Obama's promise to make a play for North Carolina -- a state that has consistently voted Republican since 1980 -- might just have some potential to really pay off, a new poll from Rasmussen suggests.

The numbers: McCain 45%, Obama 43%, within the ±4% margin of error. This is consistent with other recent polls that have shown McCain with only a small lead here.

Another bad sign for McCain is that 54% of respondents said it's more important to bring the troops home form Iraq than it is to win the war, versus only 40% who think victory is more important than leaving -- a very bad finding for McCain in this traditionally red state.

Brilliant Mgmt. Move - Obama moves DNC operations to Chicago

John Nail — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 16:54:16 EDT

Obama moves DNC operations to Chicago

In a major shakeup at the Democratic National Committee -- and a departure from tradition -- large parts of the committee's operations are relocating to Chicago to be fully integrated with the Obama campaign.

The DNC's political department, housed in Washington, D.C., will be dramatically rebuilt, with staffers offered a choice of moving to Chicago, joining state operations, or staying in Washington, DNC spokeswoman Karen Finney said.

But the power will clearly be shifting to a centralized Chicago hub.

The DNC's key role in coordinating political operations with state parties is expected to largely be taken over and overseen by Obama's senior staff in Chicago, state party officials said.

"This is part of the implementation of the plans Paul [Tewes] discussed last week with the state party chairs," Finney said. "As part of the efforts to fully integrate DNC operations with the Obama campaign here in Washington, in Chicago and in the states, political, field and constituency operations are moving to Chicago to work in the Obama headquarters. The goal is to consolidate these efforts into one operation and effectively drive one national strategy."

People familiar with the plan said that state party staffers paid for under Howard Dean's 50 State Program would be shifted to working for the presidential campaign, at least in targeted battleground states.

The move reflects Obama's desire to maintain an unusually streamlined campaign, as well as his swift and complete takeover of a Democratic Party that isn't always known for its unity. The move may also save the campaign money, as the Obama campaign can use DNC salaries and staff to pay for elements of its organizing campaign and avoid some of the duplication that has often dogged presidential efforts.

More Bad News for McCain - WI Poll - Obama +13

John Nail — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 08:54:37 EDT

WI Poll: Obama + 13

12 Jun 2008 06:43 am

Two political scientists with top-notch reputations -- Charles Franklin of Pollster.com and Political Arithmetik fame, and Ken Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project -- have teamed together to conduct a series of polls for the Wispolitics.com empire, and their first effort has a surprising result: Barack Obama is up by double digits in the state. The two find that Democrats have a substantial voter identification edge in the state -- 12 points. In 2004, party attachment measures were equal. The two surveyed 506 probable Wisconsin voters; the margin of error is +/- 4.5%.