Ian O's Blog

Lead in Michigan and NM

Ian O — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 11:02:43 EDT

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080821/NEWS15/308210001/1215

Michigan – Independents, women and Wayne County voters helped boost Democrat Barack Obama to a 7-point lead over Republican John McCain in the presidential race in Michigan, according to a Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll conducted this week.

Obama's 46% to 39% statewide advantage is especially aided by a 39-point bulge among voters in Wayne County, including Detroit.

Elsewhere in metro Detroit and outstate, Sens. McCain and Obama are virtually tied, according to the poll of 600 likely voters. Twelve percent are undecided and 3% support third-party candidates.

Obama has significantly more support among voters younger than 35 and an 11-point lead among women statewide. Among men, the two candidates are virtually tied.

Several other recent polls had shown the race tightening in Michigan, which is among a half dozen or so battleground states expected to decide the presidential race. The state has 17 electoral votes.

Still, the numbers could move. Nearly one-third -- 31% -- of those polled said they could be persuaded to change their minds by Election Day Nov. 4.

Perhaps most striking is Obama's 17-point edge among independent voters -- a bloc McCain has cultivated since he first ran for president in 2000. Most experts say independents will decide this year's race because both candidates have strong support from core voters in their respective parties.

The poll shows the economy is by far the most important issue to voters -- 50% ranked it tops -- followed distantly by the war in Iraq, gas and oil prices and health care. And the poll showed Michiganders think Obama is slightly better equipped to help solve economic issues that have wrought havoc in Michigan. Social issues such as abortion and gay marriage were top issues for only 10% of those polled.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election

New Mexico – While John McCain has gained ground on Barack Obama in a number of states over the past month, little has changed in New Mexico.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama ahead 47% to McCain's 41%. A month ago, it was Obama by five percentage points. The stability of the race is emphasized by the fact that Obama’s support has been at 46% or 47% of the vote in three straight surveys. McCain has been at 41% for three of the past four months. Both candidates are viewed favorably by 56% of the state’s voters. Last month, both were viewed favorably by 57%.

When “leaners” are included in the current New Mexico totals, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 44%. Leaners are those who don’t initially express a preference for one of the major candidates. But, when asked a follow-up question, they do.

McCain is supported by 93% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 80% of Democrats. The Democrat has a very slight edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain enjoys a modest advantage among white voters while Obama has a 19-point lead among Hispanics.

Nevada and Minnesota Polls

Ian O — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:18:03 EDT

http://www.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/misc?url=/misc/inside_nevada_politics.pbs&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3a47c0e9e3-2bcd-439f-8b7a-bfc5884a1123Post%3a974fcb47-2db4-40f9-9761-e527efc77c3c&sid=sitelife.rgj.com

Nevada – A new RGJ/KTVN Channel 2 poll being released today shows Nevada continues to be a true toss-up in the presidential race. In the poll of 600 likely Nevada voters, 44 percent favor Barack Obama and 43 percent favor John McCain. The results also indicate that support for Libertarian candidate, Bob Barr, expected to do well enough in Nevada to draw votes away from McCain, is slipping. He registered just 3 percent support, while independent candidate Ralph Nader is at 2 percent. Six percent of voters remain undecided.

The poll was conducted Aug. 18-20 by Research 2000 and has a 4 percent margin of error. Results also show the two major candidates enjoy very similar favorability ratings among Nevada voters. Of those surveyed, 51 percent had a favorable view and 44 percent had an unfavorable view of McCain, while 52 percent had a favorable and 40 percent had an unfavorable view of Obama.

And as Washoe County Democrats have been saying for months now, Northern Nevada could tip the balance in the race, where it is a veritable tie. McCain has a 1-point lead in Washoe County. Obama is leading by 7 points in Clark County.

The results indicate that McCain's full-on television assault over the past month has done little to erode Obama's standing. However, it's also relevant to point out Obama visited the state a day before the survey began.

http://www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/pdf/HHH_MPR_August_President.pdf

Minnesota – According to a Minnesota Public Radio News and Humphrey Institute poll, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama leads his Republican counterpart, John McCain, 48% to 38% among likely Minnesota voters. Three percent favor Ralph Nader and 1% supports Libertarian Bob Barr.

Despite Obama’s lead, the race remains fluid: 10% are undecided; a bit more than 10% of Obama’s and McCain’s backers indicate that they may change their mind; and half of Nader’s supporters and three quarters of Barr’s say they too may switch to another candidate.

New Polls from Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maryland

Ian O — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 10:25:17 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

Pennsylvania – Barack Obama leads John McCain by five percentage points in Pennsylvania for the second month in a row. Both candidates have lost some support from a month ago, with the Democrat now favored by 45% while his Republican opponent earns the vote from 40%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead is down to just three points, 48% to 45%. A month ago, Obama led by six when leaners were included.

The data in Pennsylvania reflects patterns seen elsewhere in recent polling. McCain has more support from Republicans than Obama does from Democrats, and McCain also wins more crossover votes from the other party. The two candidates are even among unaffiliated voters.

Obama wins among younger voters and those who don’t attend church while McCain has a solid lead among senior citizens and regular churchgoers.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of voters in Pennsylvania, Obama by 55%. For both men, that’s a three-point decline over the past month.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

New Hampshire – The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%. When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.

The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.

The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.

While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maryland/election_2008_maryland_presidential_election

Maryland – Barack Obama leads John McCain comfortably 53% to 41% in the reliably Democratic state of Maryland, according to Rasmussen Reports’ first telephone survey in the state since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the presidential race. With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 53% to 43%.

In early January, the last time Rasmussen Reports surveyed state voters, Obama led McCain 48% to 42%. But against Hillary Clinton, McCain was the front-runner 45% to 43%. Obama crushed Clinton 60% to 37% in the February 12 Maryland Democratic Primary.

Eighty percent (80%) of Maryland Democrats and 10 percent of the state’s Republicans now support Obama. McCain has the backing of 86% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats. Undecided voters give McCain the edge 49% to 42%.

New Polls from Indiana, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Iowa

Ian O — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 11:16:14 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92

Indiana – In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted exclusively for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.

Among those who regularly attend religious services, McCain leads by 28 points, up from 16 points eight weeks ago. Among those who occasionally attend, Obama leads by 14. Among those who rarely attend, Obama leads by 23. The field period for this survey overlapped with the candidates' participation in Pastor Rick Warren's Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency, held in California 08/16/08. Among men, McCain leads by 12 points; among women, McCain and Obama tie. Eight weeks ago, Obama had led by 7 among women. Among voters younger than Barack Obama, the two candidates tie. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 21 points; among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, McCain leads by 9. 12% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents favor Obama by 12 points. Among those who have graduated from a 4-year college, McCain leads by 15 points; among those who have not, McCain and Obama tie. Among those with household incomes of less than $50,000, Obama leads by 11; among those with incomes above $50,000, McCain leads by 18.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2008/august/081908hawkeye_poll.html

Iowa – Democrat Barack Obama is leading Republican John McCain in the battleground state of Iowa among both registered and likely voters, according to a new University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today.

Among registered voters, Obama holds a 48 percent to 42.9 percent lead when "leaners" are factored in. Among those judged as "likely registered voters," Obama's lead is 49.5 percent to 43.1 percent, with 7.4 percent undecided.

Obama's lead is thus somewhat comfortable in Iowa compared to recent national polls showing the race tightening to as few as 3 percentage points.

In this month's Hawkeye Poll, only 38.6 percent of McCain voters say they strongly support him, while 64.3 percent of Obama voters are strong supporters. Obama leads or is tied in nearly every demographic group examined, except Evangelical Christians, where McCain is up 65.2 percent to 31.6 percent.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Florida – John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

While Obama remains close in the polls, he is viewed unfavorably by 48% of Florida voters, including 57% of white voters. Just 49% of all voters give the Democrat a favorable assessment. McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Florida voters and unfavorably by 36%.

Last month, Obama held a statistically insignificant one-point lead on McCain following a month where Obama spent a reported $5 million on television advertising while McCain spent nothing. That was the first time Obama had held an advantage of any kind over McCain in the Sunshine State. For the previous six months the Republican had been ahead anywhere from seven to 16 percentage points.

McCain regained sizable ground among unaffiliated voters in the new survey. After trailing among unaffiliateds by 23% in July, he has now drawn even with Obama among those voters. McCain earns the vote from 86% of Republicans while 78% of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

Ohio – Ohio, the ultimate swing state in Election 2004, continues to lean in John McCain’s direction, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

McCain attracts 45% of the vote in Ohio while Obama earns 41%. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain led 46% to 40%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 48% to 43%.

The most discouraging number in the poll for Obama may be the fact that 51% of Ohio voters have an unfavorable opinion of the presumptive Democratic nominee. That figure includes 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion, up six percent from a month ago.

Overall, 47% of Buckeye State voters offer a positive opinion of Obama. That’s fifteen points below the 62% with a favorable opinion of McCain.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_820.pdf

Missouri – John McCain has expanded his lead over Barack Obama in Missouri, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. McCain’s advantage is 50-40, a seven point increase from PPP’s July poll, which showed him leading by just three points. Obama’s biggest issue is with white voters, who support McCain by a 56-35 margin.

McCain leads across every age group, and has the advantage with both men and women. Obama will need a good margin of victory with women if he is to take Missouri but for now that’s not coming through.

New results from Florida and Indiana

Ian O — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 22:30:22 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Florida – John McCain has recaptured the lead over Barack Obama in Florida, besting his Democratic opponent 46% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Counting “leaners,” McCain attracts 48% of the voter while Obama earns 46%. That advantage for McCain is well within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92

Slim Lead in Pennsylvania

Ian O — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:29:55 EDT

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Susq_Presidential_August2008.pdf

Pennsylvania – In the PA presidential race, Barack Obama still holds a narrow lead over John McCain, with 46% supporting Obama to 41% for McCain; 10% remain undecided with 3% saying they would vote for neither or vote for another candidate. This includes 30% who are “definitely” voting for McCain and 37% “definitely” voting for Obama. This poll shows no movement from Obama’s narrow 46/39 lead in May, which means Obama has gotten no positive “bounce” since officially clinching the nomination battle over Hillary Rodham Clinton earlier this year. In a close contest however, Obama’s lead on intensity with a higher percentage of “definite” support could be the deciding factor that puts him over the top because it means his base is more solidified and his troops more energized than those of McCain.

Both McCain and Obama have virtually the same ratios in hard name ID and are liked nearly equally by the voters. For Obama, he is viewed favorably by 46% of voters, compared to 32% who have an unfavorable opinion; 22% have no opinion of him. For McCain, 44% view him favorably, compared to 34% who view him unfavorably and 22% who have no opinion. This again reflects the closeness of the race since neither candidate has succeeded in developing a positive image that is head-and-shoulders above the other.

In a separate match-up of candidates with Independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr in the race, Obama leads McCain 44/38, with Nader at 3% and Barr at 2%; 10% remain undecided. Given the fact that the race is closest in a 2-person match-up without the third-party candidates, Barr’s presence on the ballot could be a deciding factor that siphons away critical support from McCain. This is particularly important in the conservative South Central/Harrisburg region, where Barr is polling at 5%, which is an area McCain needs a huge margin of support in to help offset Obama’s big vote margins in Southeastern PA including Philadelphia where collectively more than 1 in 3 votes are cast in a PA statewide election.

Lead in NY and Illinois; Minnesota Tightens; Georgia Remains Unchanged

Ian O — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 11:46:20 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3af2463a-4cc8-4435-989f-3ea28464ab49

Minnesota – In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 08/15/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama finish effectively even, according to this exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Obama 47%, McCain 45%, within the survey's 3.8 percentage point margin of sampling error.

Obama leads by 8 points in NE Minnesota and by 5 in Western Minnesota. In the Twin Cities area and in southern Minnesota, the two tie. Half in Minnesota say the economy is the most important issue, and on that issue, Obama leads 50% to 44%. 83% of Conservatives back McCain. 82% of Liberals back Obama. Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. Obama is up 15 points among the less affluent. McCain is up 5 points among the more affluent. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 3; among women, Obama leads by 9 -- a 12 point gender gap. Among those voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 4. Among those voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 4. Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 3. 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, a wash. Independents split.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election

Georgia – John McCain now leads Barack Obama 50% to 43% in Georgia. That’s little changed from a month ago when McCain held a nine-point advantage. When “leaners” are included, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Peach State finds the Republican leading 53% to 44%.

The race in Georgia has remained relatively steady since March.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation, picks up 3% of the vote initially. But when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.

While both McCain and Obama earn roughly equal support from their own parties, McCain has a thirteen percentage point advantage among unaffiliated voters. McCain leads by twenty among men while the candidates are roughly even among women.

McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of Georgia’s voters and unfavorably by 39%. Obama’s ratings are 50% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election

Illinois – Barack Obama remains comfortably ahead of his Republican presidential rival John McCain -- 53% to 38% -- in his home state of Illinois, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

When “leaners” are factored in, the Democrat is ahead 55% to 40%. The longtime Illinois resident is now the state’s junior U.S. senator.

Last month, Obama had a 50% to 37% lead over McCain.

Illinois, one of the most reliably Democratic states in the Midwest, has gone for the party’s presidential candidate in the last four elections, including John Kerry who carried it by 10 points in 2004.

McCain has the support of 85% of Illinois Republicans, while 89% of the state’s Democrats are backing Obama. The Democrat has a sizable 51% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama’s 55% to 36% lead among women voters is virtually identical to last month’s findings, but he has jumped out to a 10-percentage point lead among men voters 51% to 41%. Last month McCain trailed by only three points.

The Republican is viewed favorably by 52%, down from 60% a month earlier. Obama, who also was at 60% in July, is now regarded favorably by 64% of Illinois voters.

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=18783

New York – The race for President continues to tighten in New York, with Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain 47-39 percent, down from 50-37 percent in July and 51-33 percent in June. Obama has a 54-34 percent favorable rating and McCain has a 49-41 percent rating.

“While New York has not gone ‘red’ in a presidential race since 1984, Obama’s lead over McCain has fallen from 18 points in June to just eight points today,” Greenberg said. “Certainly the dynamic in the race will change with the two conventions and the selection by both candidates of vice presidential running mates.”

Ohio and Colorado Are Even

Ian O — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 13:53:42 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_818.pdf

Ohio – John McCain has pulled even with Barack Obama in Ohio, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. Obama had led in PPP’s June and July polls of the state. It’s 45-45 with 10% undecided.

One factor causing Obama problems is that he’s not doing as good a job as McCain of getting folks in his party to vote for him. While McCain leads 89-7 among Republicans,

Obama’s lead is a narrower 75-17 among Democrats. Obama has the 45-28 edge with independent voters. The Democrats neglecting to choose Obama are disproportionately white, female, and middle aged, an indication that it could be former supporters of Hillary Clinton who are holding out.

Obama leads with women and voters under 45 while McCain leads with men and older voters. McCain is up 49-38 with white voters and Obama is up 80-18 with blacks.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/aug/15/rockycbs4-poll-shows-obama-mccain-neck-and-neck-co/

Colorado – A political battle for the ages may become a battle of the ages. Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama are neck-and-neck in Colorado, solidifying the state as a key, swing area that will be pivotal in deciding who becomes the next president of the U.S., according to a Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll released Friday.

The poll revealed sharp divisions among voters by age and geography, with the candidates' approaches to economic issues a key to winning the state. Overall, Coloradans favored McCain 44 percent to 41 percent, but the gap was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.38 percentage points. McCain also had a slightly higher approval rating, 55 percent to 53 percent, also within the margin of error.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr received 3 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader was favored by 2 percent of voters with 8 percent undecided. That was the conclusion of 500 registered voters polled between Monday and Wednesday by Public Opinion Strategies. Public Opinion Strategies generally polls for Republican candidates. RBI Strategies, a firm that generally works with Democratic candidates, consulted on the creation of the questionnaire and its analysis.

The poll found huge gaps between the youngest and oldest voters in Colorado. Obama led McCain 56 percent to 34 percent among voters under 35 years of age and McCain led Obama 51 percent to 34 percent among those 65 and older. His support among Democrats 45 years old and younger is 89 percent compared with 68 percent of those over age 45, she said.

Geographical differences also abound. Obama lags on the plains and Western Slope, but dominates in Denver. McCain is favored in the southern suburbs, while Obama is ahead in the northern suburbs. Jobs and the economy were the No. 1 issue in Colorado voters minds when deciding whom to support for president, the poll said. Among those voters, Obama had a slight edge - 44 percent to 38 percent. However, voters who listed energy and gas prices as the top presidential issue favored McCain by 50 percent to 34 percent.

For Obama, the poll shows him leading 47 percent to 40 percent among suburban women.

Obama Leads in Maine

Ian O — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:04:11 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election

Maine – Barack Obama has marginally expanded his lead over John McCain in Maine. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds the Democrat ahead 49% to 36%.

When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 53% to 39%.

Last month, Obama had a ten point lead over McCain, representing a much tighter race than the 20-point margin the Democrat enjoyed in June.

A noticeable change this month comes from voters not affiliated with either major party. This month, Obama now leads among unaffiliated voters 48% to 32%. In July, the candidates were nearly tied among this demographic.

While Obama dominates among women, 52% to 31%, he now leads 47% to 41% among men in Maine. The Democrat also fares much better among single voters than married voters.

McCain is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s ratings in Maine are 61% favorable, 36% unfavorable.

Maine has cast its four Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in the last four presidential elections. In 2004, John Kerry won the state over George W. Bush by nine percentage points.

McCain Extends Lead in NC

Ian O — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 13:59:41 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

North Carolina – In North Carolina, voters are leaning more in John McCain’s direction than they have at any point since March.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 46% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. That’s little changed from last month. But, when “leaners” are included, McCain has opened a six-point lead, 50% to 44%. That’s twice the three-point advantage from a month ago and McCain’s biggest edge since shortly after the Jeremiah Wright story became news in mid-March.

In North Carolina, McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama is backed by 74% of Democrats. McCain has a slight lead among unaffiliated voters, a reversal from last month.

McCain leads by a more than two-to-one margin among white voters while Obama is supported by 93% of African-Americans. McCain leads by twenty percentage points among men, but trails Obama by five among women.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59%, up two points from last month and four points from two months ago. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, down just a point over the past month.

North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin.

Lead in Minnesota and Washington; Colorado Dead Even

Ian O — Fri, 15 Aug 2008 10:18:22 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election

Minnesota – Much of Barack Obama’s 12-point lead over John McCain has disappeared in Minnesota. He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters.

Last month the Democrat had a 49% to 37% lead on McCain. In June he was ahead 52% to 39%.

McCain is now supported by 91% of Republicans, up from 79% a month ago. Obama earns the vote from 89% of Democrats, down two points from last month. Among unaffiliated Minnesota voters, the candidates are essentially even.

Obama’s 19-point lead among women voters last month is now down to 13. McCain has moved ahead among male voters who now favor the Republican 47% to 42%. Last month, Obama had a slight edge among men.

McCain is now regarded favorably by 60% of Minnesota voters, unfavorably by 39%. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

Colorado – The race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes is about as close as it can be on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.

While McCain’s advantage is statistically insignificant, it is the first time he has been ahead in Colorado in seven monthly polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports this year. It’s also the first time that McCain has reached the 47% level of support. Only once before this month had Obama’s support fallen below 46%.

A month ago, Obama led by seven points overall but by just three points when leaners were included. Two months ago, the race was a toss-up.

The new findings are consistent with a nationwide trend showing statewide results becoming more consistent with recent electoral patterns. George W. Bush won Colorado by five points in Election 2004 and John McCain is running about four or five points behind Bush’s 2004 numbers overall in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. As a result, you’d expect Colorado to be a toss-up and that’s what the current numbers suggest.

If either candidate improves their position in the national polling, it is likely that the trend will carry to Colorado as well.

McCain currently attracts 90% of the vote from Republicans in Colorado while Obama is supported by 83% of Democrats. Obama has a modest lead among unaffiliated voters while McCain picks up more votes from Democrats than Obama does from Republicans.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Colorado voters, Obama by 54%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=90e886e0-135a-4500-9712-e7be3427399c

Washington – Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 51% to 44% in an election for President of the United States in Washington State today, 08/13/08, 83 days until the election, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, when Obama led by 16 points, Obama is down by 4 points; McCain is up 5. Among women, Obama had led by 22, now leads by 15. Among men, Obama had lead by 10, now trails by 1. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama's lead has fallen from 19 points to 10 points. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama's lead has fallen from 24 points to 8 points. Among those voters in between the two candidates' ages, Obama had led by 10, now leads by 4. Obama has lost ground and McCain has gained ground among every demographic group. One month ago, 14% of Republicans crossed over to vote for Democrat Obama; today, 6% do so. McCain now gets 90% of Republican votes. Obama is up slightly among Democrats; one month ago, he took 87% of Democratic votes; today, he takes 91%. One month ago, Obama led by 7 among independents; today, he trails by 2. In Metro Seattle, Obama led by 29, now leads by 15. In the remainder of Western Washington, Obama had led by 11, now leads by 8. In Eastern Washington, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 13.

Lead in Wisconsin; Tie in Virginia; Slightly Behind in Nevada

Ian O — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 20:43:02 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Virginia – It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 45% to 44%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.

The difference between those two results can be found primarily among unaffiliated voters. Without leaners, McCain has a twelve point advantage among those not affiliated with either major party. When leaners are included, McCain’s advantage grows to seventeen points, 54% to 37%.

With or without leaners, McCain is supported by 86% of Republicans while 87% of Democrats in Virginia say they’ll vote for Obama.

These results are essentially unchanged from a month ago. This is the third straight month to find the candidates just a single point apart and that may be one reason former Virginia Governor Mark Warner, who is well ahead in his race for the Senate, has been tapped to give the keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention later this month.

While no Democrat has won Virginia since 1964, it’s not terribly surprising that the race is close in 2008. Four years ago, George W. Bush won the state by eight percentage points. Nationally, John McCain is running about five or six points worse than Bush did in 2004. So, simply by following the national trends, Virginia would be quite competitive. Additionally, demographic changes in Northern Virginia along back-to-back popular Democratic Governor’s may give the Democratic prospects an additional boost.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=518

Virginia – An InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey conducted for the Southern Political Report and its continuing pre-convention poll of potentially competitive presidential races in the South shows John McCain and Barack Obama in a dead-heat in Virginia. The telephone survey of 416 registered likely voters, conducted August 12, is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of +/- 5%.

Q. If the election were held today would you vote for …

John McCain: 43%
Barack Obama: 43%
Other: 9%*
Undecided: 5%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

Nevada – The race for Nevada’s Electoral College votes remains close, but for the fourth time in the last five months John McCain has a slight advantage. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Obama earns 42%.

This is the third straight month to find Obama’s support at the 42% level. Two months ago, McCain was at 45%, but his support slipped to 40% in July.

When “leaners” are included in the current Nevada totals, McCain is on top 48% to 45%.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/wisconsin_poll_081408.htm

Wisconsin – Below are the results of a three-day poll of likely voters in the state of Wisconsin. Results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Wisconsin, aged 18+, and conducted August 8-10, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 24%
Disapprove 68%
Undecided 8%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 22%
Disapprove 68%
Undecided 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 27%
Disapprove 64%
Undecided 9%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 49%
Disapprove 41%
Undecided 10%

Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops from Iraq within six months?
Yes 58%
No 34%
Undecided 8%

If the election for President were held today would you support John McCain, the Republican or Barack Obama, the Democrat?
Barack Obama 47%
John McCain 42%
Undecided 11%

Obama Leads in Pennsylvania and NJ

Ian O — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 07:47:51 EDT

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/FM_Aug2008Poll.pdf

Pennsylvania – The Franklin and Marshall College August 2008 survey of registered Pennsylvanians finds Democrat Barack Obama leading Republican John McCain by eight points, 44% to 36%. Obama’s lead is smaller among likely voters, 46% to 41%. Obama holds a sizable lead among younger residents, non-whites, college graduates, women, and residents of Philadelphia (see Table A-1). McCain has an advantage with Protestants, fundamentalist Christians, and residents of northeastern and northwestern Pennsylvania. Both candidates fare well among their party faithful, and Obama has an advantage among independents.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1201

New Jersey – With the support of 94 percent of black voters and a 15-point lead among women, Barack Obama tops John McCain 51 - 41 percent among New Jersey likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Independent voters go 45 percent for Sen. Obama and 42 percent for Sen. McCain. Men also give the Democrat a slight edge, 48 - 45 percent, while women back Obama 53 - 38 percent. McCain leads 50 - 42 percent among white voters. Obama leads 66 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 51 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, as McCain has a 47 - 44 percent edge with voters over 55 years old the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds.

New Jersey voters give Obama a 57 - 31 percent favorability rating to McCain's 54 - 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of Obama voters and 22 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day.

Obama Makes Gains in North Carolina

Ian O — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:19:45 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c12aadc7-2830-4be0-8e30-a647afe3277d

North Carolina – In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 45%, according to this latest exclusive WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 12 weeks ago, McCain is down 2, Obama is up 2. McCain had led by 8, now 4.

In Raleigh, there is slight movement to Obama. In Southern and Coastal NC, there is slight, offsetting movement to McCain. Among the better educated, there is movement to Obama. Among the less-educated, there is erosion in Obama's support. Blacks continue to vote 10:1 Obama. Whites continue to vote 2:1 McCain. Obama continues to lead 5:4 among the less affluent. McCain continues to lead 5:4 among the more affluent. Among men, McCain led by 20 points four weeks ago, leads by 9 today. Among women, Obama led by 7 points four weeks ago, leads by 2 today. A then-27-point Gender Gap is now 11 points. McCain holds 86% of the GOP base. Obama holds 71% of the Democrat base. Independents can't make up their minds.

Obama Leads in Oregon and Iowa

Ian O — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 22:33:02 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election

Oregon – Oregon shows no indication of becoming a swing state in the race for the White House this year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Oregon voters shows Barack Obama leads John McCain by 10 percentage points, 47% to 37%. That’s virtually identical to last month’s results when Obama led 46% to 37%.

When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 52% to 42%.

This is the sixth Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Oregon for Election 2008, and the Republican has never been closer than six points behind. Four times, Obama has enjoyed an eight-to-10 point lead, and once he was up by 14.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election

Iowa – John McCain has cut Barack Obama’s lead in Iowa in half over the past month but still trails the Democrat 46% to 41%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 49% to 44%.

Last month Obama had a double-digit lead on McCain, 51% to 41%. In June, after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race, he led McCain by seven points.

McCain had held steady at 38% for two months running, so the three-point uptick in the new survey is good news for his campaign.

Obama has the support of 79% of the state’s Democrats, while 84% of GOP voters back McCain. Among unaffiliated voters, the Democrat has a sizable lead, 46% to 30%, roughly the same as in July.

Iowa is viewed as a swing state, although the 2004 election was the first time in 20 years that the state had gone for the Republican presidential candidate. President Bush carried the state by less than 10,000 votes that year.

Obama Has Four-Point Lead in Colorado

Ian O — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 15:28:34 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_811.pdf

Colorado – Public Policy Polling’s newest survey in Colorado finds Barack Obama with a four point lead, the same advantage he showed in PPP’s July poll. Obama leads John McCain 48-44.

McCain leads just 48-46 with white voters, while Obama has a 51-36 edge with Hispanics. Both candidates are polling in the mid-80s among folks within their parties while Obama is leading 50-35 with independents.

Virginia: Dead Even

Ian O — Mon, 11 Aug 2008 13:53:46 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ff6d5cc4-2876-4894-8c86-7d8364057e52&c=77

Virginia – In an election for President held in Virginia today, 08/11/08, 12 weeks to Election Day, John McCain and Barack Obama tie, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke and WJLA-TV in Washington DC. Today, it's McCain 48%, Obama 47%, within the survey's 3.9 percentage point margin of sampling error, effectively even.

Obama leads by 13 points in SE Virginia and by 11 points in the NE Virginia; McCain leads by 23 in the Shenandoah and by 5 in Central Virginia. McCain holds 89% of the GOP base. Obama holds 86% of the Democrat base. Independents break 5:4 for McCain. Moderates break 3:2 for Obama. Obama leads slightly among those who have graduated college. McCain leads slightly among those who have not. McCain leads among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads among those who rarely go to church. McCain leads 2:1 among Pro-Life voters. Obama leads 2:1 among Pro-Choice voters. Among men, McCain leads by 9; among women, Obama leads by 6 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than John McCain, McCain leads by 9. Among voters younger than McCain, the contest is effectively even.

Michigan and Missouri - Opposite ends

Ian O — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 13:40:05 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

Michigan – Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.

Obama’s lead has dropped a statistically insignificant one-point since last month.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama has a narrower 49% to 45% lead on his Republican rival.

Michigan is increasingly viewed as one of a handful of states that the election will turn on, so both candidates are now spending more on ads there. Obama just this week proposed $4 billion in loans and tax credits to help retool closed factories in Michigan, and his energy plan calls for federal funding to help the ailing auto industry produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. McCain is reportedly considering Mitt Romney as a running mate because the latter is a native of Michigan and is popular with voters in the state.

While Obama and McCain both have the support of over 80% of their respective party members in Michigan, the Republican maintains an edge among unaffiliated voters 41% to 37%.

McCain continues to lose ground among male voters. Obama has a slight 45% to 43% lead among men, compared to last month when McCain enjoyed a 46% to 41% margin. In May the GOP candidate had a 19-percentage point lead. Obama’s 49% to 36% lead among women voters is roughly the same as in July.

Obama’s favorability rating has fallen back to where it was in June. Last month 60% of Michigan voters regarded him favorably. Now 54% feel that way. But the number who regard him in Very Favorable terms has edged up to 36%. Forty-five percent of voters, however, regard him unfavorably, roughly the same as the last two months.

Those who have a favorable view of McCain have dropped from 59% in July to 55% now, but 22% now say their opinion of him is Very Favorable, compared to 18% for the previous two months. Those who view McCain unfavorably stands at 43%, down from 46% a month earlier.

Both candidates’ wives are viewed favorably in Michigan – Michelle Obama by 52%, Cindy McCain by 50%. Forty-two percent (40%) have an unfavorable view of Mrs. Obama versus 31% who feel that way about Mrs. McCain.

One-third of Michigan voters (33%) think McCain is too old to be president, but 59% disagree. Forty-three percent (43%) say Obama is too inexperienced to be president, but slightly more (47%) do not concur.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

Missouri – John McCain leads Barack Obama by seven percentage points in the race for Missouri’s Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 41%. This is the third time in the last four months that McCain’s support has been at 47% or 48%. The one exception came in early June—McCain’s support dipped as Obama was wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Obama has been in the 41% to 43% range for four straight months.

Last month, McCain enjoyed a five-point lead in Missouri.

When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 44%, little changed from a month ago. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.

Double-Digit Lead in Washington

Ian O — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 11:00:42 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election

Washington – Barack Obama has expanded his lead over John McCain in Washington and now leads the GOP hopeful by a dozen points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 52% to 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 54% to 42%.

Forty-five percent (45%) believe that most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election while just 10% believe they are trying to help McCain. Those assessments are similar to the views of voters nationwide.

Obama attracts 89% of the Democratic vote while McCain is supported by 90% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 53% to 41%.

Last month, Obama enjoyed a nine-point lead.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Washington voters, McCain by 52%. Those figures are down slightly for both men over the past month.

Lead in Wisconsin and Massachusetts

Ian O — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 22:01:33 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election

Wisconsin – Barack Obama's 11-point lead in Wisconsin is now down to four. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama leading John McCain 47% to 43%. When “leaners” are included in the totals, Obama leads 51% to 44%.

Last month, in the first Wisconsin poll conducted since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama was ahead of his Republican opponent 50% to 39%.

Obama is supported by 86% of Wisconsin Democrats, McCain by 95% of Republicans. Voters not affiliated with either major party are evenly divided.

The Democrat leads by a 2-to-1 margin among voters under 30 while McCain has a seven percentage point advantage among voters over 65.

McCain leads among those earning $40,000 to $75,000 a year. His opponent is ahead among those who earn above that level and below it.

McCain is viewed favorably by 56% of Wisconsin voters, roughly the same number as last month. But Obama is now given favorable marks by 53%, down from 61% in July.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/massachusetts/election_2008_massachusetts_presidential_election

Massachusetts – Just as the presidential race nationally has tightened up, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain in Massachusetts has narrowed since last month, but he still sits comfortably out front 51% to 36%.

Last month Obama led McCain by 20 percentage points 53% to 33%, but the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Bay State voters shows the gap is down to 15. In June, the Democrat led his Republican rival 51% to 38%.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 54% to 38%.

Obama has the support of 78% of the state’s Democrats, and McCain has the backing of a similar number of Republicans (79%). Unaffiliated voters favor McCain over Obama 45% to 36%.

Traditionally one of the bluest of blue states, Massachusetts has gone for only one Republican presidential candidate -- Ronald Reagan in 1984 -- in over 50 years. In 1972, it was the only state to cast its electoral votes for Democrat George McGovern.

Continued Lead in Wisconsin and Oregon

Ian O — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:32:03 EDT

http://www.wpri.org/Commentary/2008/8.08/Poll8.7.08/Poll8.7.08.html

Wisconsin – Barack Obama holds a 44% to 38% lead in Wisconsin over Senator John McCain in the presidential race. Obama leads the race primarily because of a combination of the most important issues on the minds of voters and the impact of President Bush and the voter’s view about the direction of the country.

The two issues that voters felt personally were most important to them were the economy and creating jobs (24%), and dealing with the war in Iraq (12%). On these issues Senator Obama had large leads. On the economy, Obama led Senator McCain by a 62% to 20% margin. On dealing with the war in Iraq his lead was 66% to 22%. Another issue that was frequently mentioned was improving education, where Senator Obama’s lead was 73% to 10%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=be47b9e3-bdae-4acd-ba37-0bd196006c9b

Oregon – In an election for President of the United States in Oregon today, 08/06/08, three months till votes are counted, Barack Obama edges John McCain 48% to 45%, within the survey's 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error, according to this SurveyUSA pre-election poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV Portland.

Obama leads by 13 points in greater Portland; McCain leads by 14 in the rest of the state. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 15 points. Among voters older than McCain, Obama leads by 9. Among voters who are in between the ages of the two candidates, McCain leads by 9. McCain holds 82% of the GOP base. Obama holds 80% of the Democrat base. Independents split. McCain is backed by 80% of conservatives. Obama is backed by 83% of liberals.

Moderates break 5:3 for Obama. McCain leads 2:1 among those who attend religious services regularly. Obama leads 2:1 among those who almost never attend religious services. Among men, McCain leads by 5 points. Among women, Obama leads by 13.

Large Leads in NY and NJ

Ian O — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:28:48 EDT

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1199

New York - With commanding leads among blacks, women and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 57 - 36 percent likely voter lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Obama gets 47 percent of white votes, to 45 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 93 - 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Obama also leads:

50 - 43 percent among men;
62 - 29 percent among women:
71 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old;
57 - 38 percent among voters 35 to 54;
50 - 38 percent among voters over age 55.

Only 18 percent of Obama voters and 26 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day. Obama gets a 60 - 24 percent favorability from New York State likely voters, compared to a 46 - 36 percent favorability for McCain. Voters say 35 - 26 percent that Michelle Obama better fits their idea of a First Lady than Cindy McCain. Men split 29 - 29 percent while women prefer Ms. Obama 41 - 24 percent.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/election_2008_new_york_presidential_election

New York (Part II) – Barack Obama doesn't have a two-to-one margin in New York anymore, but he still leads John McCain by 20 points, 52% to 32%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Empire State voters. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat has a 55% to 36% lead. In late June, Obama led his Republican opponent 60% to 29%.

Obama leads 47% to 36% among men in the Empire State and 56% to 28% among women. He’s also backed by 78% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama has a 45% to 27% advantage over McCain.

The presumptive Democratic nominee’s favorability ratings in New York have decreased somewhat along with his lead in August. He is viewed favorably by 59%, down from 67% in June. Obama is now viewed unfavorably by 39% of voters, up from 30% a month ago. McCain’s numbers have changed little since the last poll. He is now viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 49%.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_presidential_election

New Jersey – Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain 48% to 40% in New Jersey, up slightly from last month but identical to his lead in June, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. When “leaners” are included, Obama’s lead expands to 10 percentage points, 52% to 42%. Both presidential candidates are viewed favorably by Garden State voters—59% have a favorable opinion of Obama while 57% say the same about McCain.

McCain has small Florida lead

Ian O — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 13:37:25 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida_805.pdf

Florida – John McCain has retaken the lead in Florida, Public Policy Polling’s newest survey shows.

Barack Obama had taken a small lead in June after trailing in PPP surveys of the state in March and January, but McCain now has a 47-44 advantage.

Obama earns just 76% of the Democratic vote, with the folks in his party supporting McCain disproportionately older white females.

The survey also shows tightening among Hispanic voters over the last month. Obama now leads by just three points with them after showing a 14 point advantage in the previous survey.

Double-Digit Lead in Connecticut; Trails in Florida

Ian O — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 07:51:14 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9946139b-a61a-4f93-bbcc-6ce0fae9014a

Florida – In an election in critical swing-state Florida for President of the United States today, 08/04/2008, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, 50% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll pre-election poll conducted exclusively for WFLA-TV Tampa and WKRG-TV Pensacola.

Obama leads by 9 points in Southeastern Florida, where he takes 52% of the vote; McCain takes 52% of the vote in Central Florida, 53% in Southwestern Florida, 55% in the northeastern Florida, and 59% in Northwestern Florida.

Among voters younger than Barack Obama, who turns 47 years old today, Obama leads by 5 points. Among voters older than John McCain, who turns 72 at the end of the month, McCain leads by 13. Among voters in-between their ages, McCain leads by 14. Among white voters, McCain leads by 19 points. Among black voters, Obama leads by 68. Hispanics favor Obama by 60 points. McCain leads among both men and women, among both college grads and non-college grads, among both those who earn less than $50,000 a year and among those who earn more than $50,000 a year.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/connecticut/election_2008_connecticut_presidential_election

Connecticut – Barack Obama continues to run far ahead of his Republican opponent John McCain in Connecticut, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

Obama leads McCain 51% to 36%. A month ago, in the first survey since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Obama jumped to a 52% to 35% lead over McCain.

Democrats have carried Connecticut in the last four presidential election cycles, the last three by double digits.

Obama is viewed favorably by 61% of Connecticut voters, virtually identical to last month’s finding, and unfavorably by 38%. The latter is a five percentage point improvement from early July. McCain’s numbers are 51% favorable, compared to 54% last month, and 47% unfavorable, up from 43% in July.

McCain has the support of 70% of the state’s Republicans, with 23% of GOP voters backing Obama. Among Democrats, 80% support Obama and only 9% McCain. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided, with 41% for McCain and 40% for Obama.

Alaska Still Close; New York A Blowout

Ian O — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 09:38:28 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election

Alaska – The indictment of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens has given the Republicans a big hill to climb in the Alaska Senate race but has not shaken up the campaign for Alaska’s three Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey in the state shows John McCain still holding a five-percentage point lead over Barack Obama, 44% to 39%. When “leaners” are included in the total, McCain now leads 48% to 42%. The survey was the first in the state conducted following the Stevens’ indictment and was completed on Wednesday night.

While closer than expected, the race has remained remarkably stable. Two weeks ago, it was McCain 45%, Obama 40%. A month ago, the Republican candidate was ahead 45% to 41%.

McCain, however, is now viewed favorably by 65% of Alaska voters, up two points from the previous survey and up eight since June. Obama is viewed favorably by 52%, down just a single point from each of the previous two surveys.

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=18473

New York – As New Yorkers review the last two years, 82% say that conditions across the world have gotten worse. Looking forward, 32% believe that things in general will improve, but a majority says that the political, social and economic climate around the world will either stay the same or worsen according to a new poll of registered voters released today by the Siena Research Institute. By a majority of 58% to 33%, voters support beginning to withdraw troops from Iraq immediately and having all but a small force out of Iraq within 18 months. Nearly twice as many New Yorkers (53%) support direct talks with no preconditions with the leaders of Iran as oppose (27%) that step, two-thirds call for additional offshore drilling, and by 53% to 22% they advocate having normal and open relations with Cuba immediately. Senator Barack Obama leads Senator John McCain 44% to 26% with 25% undecided in the presidential contest. On many global issues, supporters of Obama and McCain are worlds apart.

Missouri Still Close

Ian O — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:55:39 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3bc94c1-2713-45ad-a82f-ddc6fc0bc20b

Missouri – In an election for President in Missouri today, Republican John McCain edges Democrat Barack Obama 49% to 44%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KCTV-TV Kansas City and KSDK-TV St. Louis.

Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released ten weeks ago, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race for the Democratic nomination, McCain is up a statistically insignificant one point; Obama is down a statistically insignificant one point. Among men, McCain today leads by 12. Among women, Obama leads by 3 -- a 15 point gender gap. Among voters older than McCain, McCain leads by 19 points. Among voters younger than Obama, the contest is tied. McCain holds 87% of Republican voters; Obama holds 83% of Democrats. Independents break 5:3 for McCain. McCain leads by 28 points in southeastern Missouri, by 23 in southwestern Missouri, and by 21 in the northern portion of the state. Obama leads by 13 in the St. Louis area. The two tie in the Kansas City area.

Large California Lead Continues

Ian O — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 11:50:03 EDT

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/survey/S_708MBS.pdf

California – With the Democratic and Republican conventions fast approaching, 86 percent of likely voters say they are following news about the candidates at least fairly closely, with 42 percent saying they are following the news very closely. In the November presidential race, California’s likely voters prefer Barack Obama over John McCain by 15 points (50% to 35%). Obama’s lead over McCain today is similar to his 17-point margin in May (54% to 37%).

Today, Obama enjoys strong support among Democrats (79%) and independents (57%), while McCain has strong support among Republicans (72%). Obama leads among both men and women. Among Latino likely voters, Obama leads by a three-to-one margin (65% to 22%), while among whites, support is divided (43% Obama, 41% McCain). Likely voters under age 35 strongly favor Obama over McCain (71% to 20%), while support among likely voters over 55 is divided (41% each).

Majorities of California likely voters say they trust Obama over McCain to handle global warming and other environmental issues (52% to 28%) and energy policy (51% to 33%). Strong partisan differences arise, with Democrats and independents favoring Obama and Republicans favoring McCain on environmental issues and energy policy. In addition, Latino likely voters are over three times more likely to say they trust Obama over McCain on each issue.

Dead Heat in Montana

Ian O — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 10:08:33 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election

Montana – The good news for John McCain in Montana is that he’s gained six points on Barack Obama over the past month. The bad news is that the race is essentially even in a state that George W. Bush won by 20-percentage points in 2004 and by 24 points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana's three Electoral College votes, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin, with Ross Perot picking up 14%.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows McCain attracting 45% of the vote in Montana while Obama earns 44%. When “leaners” are included, it’s all tied up at 47%.

A month ago, Obama had a five-point advantage in Montana. In April, the numbers were reversed and it was McCain by five.

McCain is viewed favorably by 59% of Montana voters, up a point over the past month. For Obama, 53% now have a favorable view, down four points.

Those figures include 26% with a Very Favorable opinion of McCain and 31% who think that highly of Obama. At the other end of the spectrum, just 16% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain but 29% hold such a view of Obama.

Obama Leads in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania

Ian O — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 09:41:29 EDT

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1196

With likely voters concerned more about energy than the war in Iraq, Barack Obama's recent tour apparently didn't help, as John McCain gained on the Democratic front- runner in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

Florida and Ohio are now too close to call. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls show:

Florida: Obama has 46 percent to McCain's 44 percent, compared to a 47 - 43 percent Obama lead June 18;

Ohio: Obama has 46 percent to McCain's 44 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Obama lead least time;

Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 49 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 40 percent.

Detailed Washington Poll Results

Ian O — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:52:05 EDT

Below are the results of a three-day poll based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Washington, aged 18+, and conducted July 25-27, 2008.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's job performance?
Approve 22%
Disapprove 72%
Undecided 6%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 18%
Disapprove 74%
Undecided 8%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 25%
Disapprove 67%
Undecided 8%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 47%
Disapprove 43%
Undecided 10%

Do you think that Washington is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 26%
Wrong 65%
Undecided 9%

Do you favor an immediate withdrawal of United States military forces from Iraq, within six months?
Yes 53%
No 36%
Undecided 11%

Would you favor the United States Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade?
Yes 26%
No 67%
Undecided 7%

If the election for President were held today would you support John McCain, the Republican or Barack Obama, the Democrat?
Barack Obama 48%
John McCain 37%
Undecided 15%

Full results of PA poll

Ian O — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 17:36:46 EDT

Below are the poll results based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania, aged 18+, and conducted July 25-27, 2008.

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 23%
Disapprove 68%
Undecided 9%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy?
Approve 19%
Disapprove 71%
Undecided 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq?
Approve 36%
Disapprove 55%
Undecided 9%

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism?
Approve 48%
Disapprove 47%
Undecided 5%

Do you think that Pennsylvania is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 21%
Wrong 66%
Undecided 13%

Would you like to see the United States withdraw all troops immediately from Iraq within the next six months?
Yes 43%
No 45%
Undecided 12%

Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade?
Yes 37%
No 58%
Undecided 5%

If the election for President were held today would you support John McCain, the Republican or Barack Obama, the Democrat?
Barack Obama 49%
John McCain 40%
Undecided 11%

Obama Holds Small Michigan Lead

Ian O — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 13:36:17 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Michigan_730.pdf

Michigan – Barack Obama’s lead in Michigan has dropped over the last month, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

Obama leads John McCain 46-43 in the state. PPP’s June poll showed Obama leading 48-39.

Most of the movement in the last month has been among white voters and Republicans. In June PPP showed Obama earning 19% of the GOP vote but that is now down to 9%. McCain has a turned a small disadvantage with white voters into a 50-40 lead.

The race in Michigan could come down to who earns the votes of independents. While only 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans are undecided, 20% of those who don’t identify with either party are.

Race Tight in North Carolina

Ian O — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 12:07:28 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_729.pdf

North Carolina – John McCain and Barack Obama continue to be locked in a tight race in North Carolina, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling shows.

McCain leads with 47% to Obama’s 44%. Libertarian Bob Barr holds 3% of the vote. Every public poll conducted since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race has shown the contest within five points in North Carolina.

Obama leads 53-38 among respondents most concerned with the economy, and 58-32 with those whose top issue is the war.

Obama Continues to Lead in California and New Jersey

Ian O — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 16:38:30 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election

California – Barack Obama is leading John McCain 50% to 38% in California according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 52% to 42% in the Golden State.

The current results are closer that the twenty-eight point gap in June, but similar to the fourteen point lead Obama enjoyed in May.

The June poll was conducted just as McCain announced his proposal to drill in offshore oil wells, a plan that is popular nationwide but not on the West Coast. It seemed to unify McCain’s opposition in California.

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP17_1.pdf

New Jersey -- Barack Obama holds a sizeable lead over John McCain among New Jersey voters as the presidential candidates lay the groundwork for the fall contest. The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds that 42% of registered voters prefer the Democrat to 28% supporting the Republican, or a 48% to 34% margin if undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are included. Among likely voters, Obama leads McCain by 50% to 36% including leaners.

Each candidate currently garners the support of 3-in-4 of their fellow partisans – 75% of Democrats support Obama and 74% of Republicans support McCain. Independents are split 30% for Obama and 26% for McCain, with 33% on the fence and 10% saying they may vote for a third party candidate.

The poll found that 4-in-10 registered voters could be considered uncommitted or “swing” voters, which is not unusual at this stage of a presidential race. This includes 23% who are undecided, 6% who are considering a third party candidate and 11% who choose a candidate but say they could change their mind. While this indicates possible volatility, the poll also found limited opportunities for McCain to sway those swing voters.

New Polls from New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania

Ian O — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:22:31 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

New Hampshire – The race for New Hampshire’s Electoral College votes remains interesting and competitive. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Granite State shows Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When leaners are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45%.

As is the case nationwide, half (50%) of New Hampshire voters believe most reporters are trying to help Barack Obama win the election. Just 8% believe they are trying to help McCain while 26% say reporters try to provide unbiased coverage.

Last month, in the first New Hampshire poll conducted since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race, Obama was up by eleven. However, following a pattern seen in many states, Obama’s bounce from winning the nomination has faded. The current numbers are similar to those from two months ago when the presumptive Democratic nominee had a five-point lead over McCain.

Obama leads by double digits among women while McCain leads by double digits among men. Obama leads by eleven among voters not affiliated with either major political party. In New Hampshire, a plurality of voters fall into this category.

McCain is viewed favorably by 63% of the state’s voters, up from 59% a month ago and from 55% the month before.

Obama is viewed favorably by 57%, down four points over the past month but little changed from two months ago.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election

New Mexico – In the race for New Mexico’s Electoral College votes, Barack Obama has a five-point advantage over John McCain. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama attracting 46% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. Last month, Obama enjoyed an eight-point advantage. Two months ago, it was Obama by nine.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 43%. Leaners are those who don’t initially express a preference for one of the major candidates. But, when asked a follow-up question, they do.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 57% of the state’s voters. Obama gets negative reviews from 41%, McCain from 39%. Reflecting a pattern seen across the country, opinions are more strongly held about Obama. In New Mexico, 31% have a Very Favorable opinion of the Democratic hopeful while just 21% say the same about his Republican rival. Both are viewed Very Unfavorably by 24%.

In New Mexico, Obama attracts 70% of the vote from Democrats and has a five-point edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain earns the vote from 82% of Republicans. McCain leads by thirteen among voters over 65 but trails among younger voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

Pennsylvania – Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has now stretched to five percentage points in Pennsylvania. In April, McCain had a statistically insignificant lead, but the Democratic candidate has been slowly moving ahead since then.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama out front 47% to 42%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 51% to 45%. Last month, Obama led 46% to 42% after holding just a two-point lead the month before.

McCain holds a 40% to 38% edge among unaffiliated voters in the state his month. Obama leads 45% to 41% among men and 50% to 43% among women.

Obama is viewed favorably by 58% of voters in Pennsylvania, which has not changed since last month. McCain is viewed favorably by 61%, up from 57% last month. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a 51% to 48% margin over President Bush. Four years earlier, Al Gore carried the state by four percentage points.

Like every other state, the plurality of voters in Pennsylvania (46%) say economic issues are the most important in the upcoming election. Among those voters, Obama leads 60% to 29%. National security issues are top priority for 25% of voters, among which McCain has a 58% to 33% lead.

New Swing State Poll: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

Ian O — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:17:22 EDT

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1195

John McCain has inched ahead of Barack Obama in Colorado; come within inches in Minnesota and narrowed the gap in Michigan and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls of likely voters in these battleground states, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com.

Voters in each state say energy policy is more important than the war in Iraq. And by margins of 22 to 31 percentage points, voters in each state support offshore oil drilling, and by seven to 12-point margins, drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.

Sen. McCain has picked up support in almost every group in every state, especially among independent voters and men voters. The Republican now leads Obama among independent voters in Michigan and Minnesota. Overall results show:

Colorado: McCain is up by a nose 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 49 - 44 percent Obama lead June 26;
Michigan: Obama tops McCain 46 - 42 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent lead last time;
Minnesota: Obama edges ahead 46 - 44 percent, compared to a 54 - 37 percent Obama lead;
Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 50 - 39 percent, compared to 52 - 39 percent.

Timothy Egan in this morning's NY Times

Ian O — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:06:50 EDT

The Oil Man Cometh

There he is, the sound of money in a wizened Texas drawl, the tired realist looking a bit like the John Huston character from “Chinatown” as he warns in national television ads that we should just listen here and do as he says.

And what the 80-year-old T. Boone Pickens says, in a $58 million campaign, is that we can’t drill our way to lower gas prices. By implication, anybody who tells you otherwise — including the fellow Texan he helped put in the White House — is a fraud.

This is a political parable for the ages: the guy who was behind one of the knockout punches to John Kerry four years ago is now doing Democrats the biggest favor of the election by calling Republicans on their phony energy campaign.

“Totally misleading” is the way Pickens describes Republican attempts to convince the public that if we just opened up all these forbidden areas to oil drilling then gas prices would fall. He’s not against new drilling, but he is honest enough to say it wouldn’t do anything.

Republicans are furious at their longtime benefactor. Senator John McCain is currently running an ad in which he directly blames Barack Obama for $4-a-gallon gas at the pump — as bogus a claim as anything yet made in 2008.

Then along comes Pickens, Texas oilman and billionaire corporate raider, overwhelming the McCain attack with a saturation message that has the added value of being true, as Henry Kissinger once said about another matter.

Pickens was a geologist before he found a deep pool of money, so when he says “the geology just isn’t there” to reduce oil imports through new drilling in offshore areas, he has some cred.

But, more importantly, Pickens is betting $10 billion in constructing what he says will be the world’s largest wind farm in the gusts of West Texas. If the mighty winds of the American midsection were harnessed, it could free up plentiful natural gas for vehicles — a relatively quick step away from foreign oil.

Would it enrich him further? Yes. But perhaps it’s not about money. In “Chinatown,” the old man played by Huston was asked by Detective Jake Gittes what more he could possibly buy at his age.

“The future, Mr. Gittes. The future.”

But before T. Boone poses for his statue, he has to answer to his past. Pickens was the moneybags, to the tune of $3 million, behind the Swift Boat attacks that made Senator Kerry’s honorable service in Vietnam sound like Rambo tangled up in lies. He even promised to pay $1 million to anyone who could challenge the veracity of the claims.

After a group of veterans presented him with documents identifying 10 lies of the Swifties, Pickens broke his promise. The vets misunderstood the precise details of the $1 million offer, he said last month. Sorry, but thanks for your service, boys!

The old-fashioned term for this is welshing on a bet, which dishonors Wales.

Because so much is at stake in the energy debate, some are quick to embrace Pickens. An endorsement from Carl Pope, executive director of the Sierra Club, is prominently displayed on the Pickens Web site.

“To put it plainly,” Pope says, “T. Boone Pickens is out to save America.” I asked Pope why he lent his words to someone who had so much to do with giving us another four years of the oil intransigence of the Bush administration.

“Ten billion dollars gets my attention,” he said.

No doubt, the Pickens plan makes sense. Just last week, Texas state officials gave preliminary approval to the biggest investment in clean energy in American history, backing a $4.9 billion plan to build transmission lines for wind energy.

Meanwhile, looking bravely to the past, Bush and McCain are trying to convince us that more oil drilling will save us from $5-a-gallon gas. History says otherwise. The number of oil and gas permits on federal land doubled in the last five years, with no effect on price or supply. And Bush’s own Energy Information Administration says increased drilling wouldn’t move the market in the short term.

McCain knows this, despite the brazen lie in his Obama gas ad. He now says drilling offshore would have “a psychological impact.” Just like that “mental recession” his former chief economic adviser Phil Gramm spoke of. These guys need to get off the couch.

It’s sad to see McCain go down this path, an easy sell for a fast-food nation. Straight talk distress.

Winning the argument may depend on who has the bigger megaphone. Advantage Pickens. Which means advantage Obama. Unless, of course, McCain wants to Swift Boat him, and then he knows who to turn to.

Obama Continues to Lead in Minnesota

Ian O — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:01:16 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election

Minnesota – Barack Obama leads John McCain 49% to 37% in Minnesota. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that when “leaners” are included, Obama leads 52% to 39%.

Two weeks ago, Obama had a 52% to 34% lead in the North Star State. Last month, Obama led 52% to 39%.

In Minnesota this month, Obama leads 42% to 35% among voters not affiliated with either major party. Like in many states, the Democrat has a big lead among women (54% to 35%) but a marginal lead among men (44% to 40%). Obama leads among voters from every age group, but performs strongest among younger voters.

Obama Surges Ahead in Florida

Ian O — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:16:55 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Florida – Barack Obama has caught up to John McCain in Florida. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over his rival, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat leads 49% to 47%.

Over the past six months, McCain has maintained leads ranging from seven to sixteen percentage points. Last month, McCain led 48% to 41% in the Sunshine State.

A big push for Obama this month in Florida comes from unaffiliated voters. Last month, he had just a three-point lead in this demographic. This month, he leads by twenty-three.

Obama leads 50% to 43% among women in Florida, while McCain leads 47% to 41% among men. The Democrat has double-digit leads among voters under 40 years of age, while McCain has a big lead among senior citizens.

This month, Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of Florida voters, up from 44% last month. He is viewed unfavorably by 47%, down from 53% last month. McCain’s numbers are 60% favorable, up from 57% last month, and 39% unfavorable, up from 38% last month.

Obama Has Small Lead in Virginia

Ian O — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 12:56:52 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_722.pdf

Virginia – Barack Obama leads by two points in Virginia, a result showing virtually no movement from PPP’s June survey of the state.

Obama leads John McCain 46-44, after showing a 47-45 advantage last month.

The contest in Virginia stacks up pretty much as one would expect. Obama leads by large margins with African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters. McCain has a strong edge with white and older voters. One surprising thing in the results is that there is no gender gap. Obama leads by a point with both men and women.

Obama Widens Lead in Colorado

Ian O — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 10:15:52 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

Colorado – In Colorado, Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain by seven percentage points, 49% to 42%. However, when leaners are included, McCain is more competitive and pulls to within three points, 50% to 47%.

A month ago, the race was a toss-up, but two months ago Obama led by six.

Obama now attracts the votes from 87% of Democrats, that up ten points over the past month. McCain earns the vote from 88% of Republicans, a six-point gain over the past month. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads by just four points. That’s down from seventeen points a month ago.

Although Obama leads in the polling, McCain is better liked—61% of Colorado voters have a favorable opinion of the southwestern Senator. Just 52% have a similar opinion about the Senator from Illinois.

Colorado has gone Republican in the last three presidential contests, reelecting George W. Bush in 2004 by five percentage points. Over the past forty years, Colorado has cast its Electoral Votes for the Democrats just once—for Bill Clinton in 1992. But Obama and his party have targeted it as a swing state this year. Democrats also have a good chance of picking up a Senate seat in Colorado this year.

McCain Boosts Lead in Ohio

Ian O — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 16:55:18 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

Ohio – John McCain has opened a modest lead over Barack Obama in the key swing state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Buckeye State shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 40%. Last month and the month before McCain held a insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

Seven percent (7%) of voters say they’d prefer a third party candidate over either McCain or Obama and another 7% remain undecided. When “leaners” are included in the totals, McCain leads Obama 52% to 42%.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 57%, little changed from a month ago. Obama gets favorable marks from 50% of the state’s voters, down three points from June but up three points since May.

NY Times Editorial: T. Boone Pickens Rides the Wind

Ian O — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:25:19 EDT

T. Boone Pickens, the legendary wildcatter and corporate raider, has decided that drilling for more oil is not the answer to the nation’s energy problems. President Bush should listen to his fellow Texan and longtime political ally.

The 80-year-old Mr. Pickens does not oppose drilling. He’s been doing it for most of his life. Nor has he become a born-again eco-warrior (a conservative, he helped underwrite and made no apologies for the Swift Boat campaign against John Kerry). But he knows something that his friends in the White House won’t acknowledge: that a nation holding less than 3 percent of the world’s oil reserves while guzzling 20 percent of the world’s production will never be able to drill its way out of its dependency on foreign oil.

He also considers it absolute madness — financially and in terms of national security — to be spending $700 billion every year on imported oil produced in volatile and in some cases hostile countries.

His answer is to develop wind power in states with steady, forceful winds (like Texas) and use it instead of natural gas to produce electricity (natural gas now generates about one-fifth of the power in the United States). He would then use the natural gas saved to fuel cars and trucks. He predicts that oil imports would drop by 40 percent and the country would save $300 billion a year.

There are, he concedes, obstacles. The country would need to rebuild the power grid to transmit wind energy from the Great Plains to consumers in the big population centers. It would need lots of service stations capable of selling natural gas. And automakers would need to produce cars that run on natural gas. There are about 8 million such vehicles in the world, but only 142,000 in the United States.

Mr. Pickens is putting his money where his ideas are, and in Texas he has begun assembling the pieces of a huge wind farm. He estimates the cost at $6 billion to $10 billion (his Mesa Power is the lead investor but his personal stake is unknown). He confidently forecasts that this wind farm and others like it will not only reduce the demand for oil but create thousands of construction and operating jobs.

Mr. Pickens concedes that people may suspect that his sudden enthusiasm for alternative energy is just another way “to make Boone Pickens rich.” But with at least $3 billion in the bank, he really doesn’t need the money anywhere near as much as the country needs alternative energy and new ideas.

Race Tightens in Michigan

Ian O — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:52:33 EDT

http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080721/METRO/807210415

Michigan – Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a tight Michigan presidential race, according to a Detroit News-WXYZ Action News poll that illustrates why both camps consider this one of the battleground states that could determine who wins in November.

Obama has the support of 43 percent of likely Michigan voters, to 41 percent for McCain, according to the survey conducted for The News and WXYZ by Lansing's EPIC-MRA. That's well within the survey's 4 percentage point error margin. A potentially decisive 12 percent say they're still undecided, and 5 percent chose third-party candidates Bob Barr or Ralph Nader.

The numbers are an improvement for Obama over EPIC-MRA's last survey, in late May, which found McCain leading by 4 points. It's also a better showing for McCain than in other recent polls: Real Clear Politics, a Website that tracks and averages political polls, shows Obama with a 7.7-point lead in its Michigan polling average.

The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses.

Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change.

McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama's lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security.

Each candidate gets support from about four of every five voters from his own party -- leaving the race in the hands of the roughly 16 percent of Michigan voters who say they are independents. McCain holds a slender, 4-point lead among them -- but that's down from a double-digit lead in EPIC-MRA's late May survey.

McCain's Leads in Alaska and North Carolina Shrink

Ian O — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 18:25:02 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election

Alaska – John McCain still has a very modest lead over Barack Obama in Alaska, but the traditionally Republican state still remains surprisingly competitive. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey has found that McCain now leads Obama 45% to 40%. Last month, the Republican candidate was ahead 45%to 41%.

When leaners are factored in, McCain still maintains just a 5-point lead 49% to44%, according to the survey taken last Thursday night.

This is the fourth month in a row where McCain’s lead has been in single digits. His biggest lead was 9%, recorded in April and May. Since then the race has tightened.

McCain, however, is now viewed favorably by 63% of Alaska voters, up six percent from June. Obama has held steady at 53% for two months in a row. The Democrat also continues to have high unfavorables -- at 46%, compared to 35% for McCain.

http://www.nccivitas.org/media/press-releases/n-c-poll-presidential-race-tightens

North Carolina – The competition for North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes for President has tightened this month with John McCain holding only a three point lead over his Democratic rival, Barack Obama, according to the latest poll released by the Civitas Institute.

Among all voters, McCain leads Obama 43-40, a slight tightening of the four point lead McCain held in Civitas’ June survey where McCain led Obama 45-41. Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr held steady from last month at two percent support. Fifteen percent were undecided.

Among Democrats, Obama leads 63-21, while McCain leads among Republicans (74-11) and unaffiliated voters (40-39). However, a large racial divide continues to exist. Obama garners the support of 92 percent of African-American voters, but only receives 28 percent of white voters.

“The race remains close in North Carolina and we are seeing this month how fluid the situation can be. Neither candidate has been able to make a decisive move to take a substantial lead. It should make the next few months very entertaining,” concluded DeLuca.

Previous Civitas Poll results:

February – McCain 46, Obama 36
April        – McCain 48, Obama 39
May         – McCain 44, Obama 39
June         – McCain 45, Obama 41, Barr 2

McCain Continues to Lead in Georgia As Barr Fades

Ian O — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:43:12 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election

Georgia – John McCain continues to enjoy a solid lead over Barack Obama in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Obama earns 39%. When leaners are included, McCain’s lead expands to eleven percentage points, 53% to 42%. These figures show little change in the race since late June.

In fact, this race has changed little all year. McCain has led by eight to fourteen points in each of the four previous surveys conducted by Rasmussen Reports in Georgia this year. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation picks up 5% of the vote initially, but only 1% when “leaners” are included. This means that up to 5% of voters now say they would vote for Barr but when asked a follow-up question only 1% remain committed to the man some view as a potential spoiler for McCain’s hopes.

Advantage in Swing States of Ohio and New Hampshire

Ian O — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 14:23:21 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Ohio_721.pdf

Ohio – According to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling, Barack Obama continues to hold a solid advantage over John McCain in Ohio. His lead in the state is 48-40, similar to the 50-39 edge he showed in PPP’s June poll.

Obama trails McCain 46-42 among white voters, but his 91-6 advantage with African-Americans gives him the overall lead. The results show a significant gender gap, with Obama leading by 20 points among women but trailing by seven with men. Obama leads in all age groups except senior citizens.

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2008_summer_nhpres72108.pdf

New Hampshire – Barack Obama holds a slim lead in race for President in the swing state of New Hampshire but more than one-quarter of voters say they are still trying to decide who they will support. The most important issue to voters is jobs and the economy. These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Although New Hampshire has only 4 votes in the Electoral College it will be a battleground state in the November election. Currently, Obama holds a slim lead over Senator John McCain. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 46% of likely voters say they plan to vote for Obama, 43% say they will vote for McCain, 3% prefer some other candidate and 8% are undecided. In the Spring Granite State Poll, McCain held a small 49% to 43% lead over Obama.

It is crucial to point out that the New Hampshire electorate is very much in flux and many voters have not firmly decided who they will actually vote for in November. Only 51% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who they will vote for, 21% are leaning toward a candidate, and 28% say they are still trying to decide. Among voters who say they have definitely decided who they will support, Obama holds a 54% to 44% lead.

Obama Continues to Lead in Maine

Ian O — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 11:14:14 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election

Maine – John McCain has pulled to within ten points of Barack Obama in Maine. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama leading 46% to 36% in the Pine Tree State. When “leaners” are included, the race is even a bit closer, 49% to 41%.

Last month, Obama led by over twenty points in the first survey conducted since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race. In May, the Democrat had a 51% to 38% lead. This pattern has been seen in many states where Obama enjoyed a bounce after clinching the nomination.

The biggest change this month is among unaffiliated voters. Among voters not affiliated with either candidate’s party, McCain and Obama are now essentially even. Last month, Obama had a 57% to 30% lead among those voters. Obama has support from 78% of Democrats in Maine, while McCain is backed by 72% of Republicans.

Though Obama’s lead has decreased among women, he still leads among this demographic by nineteen percentage points. Among men, the candidates are now even. Last month, the Democrat had a seven-point lead among men.

NY Times: Electrical Risks at Iraq Bases Are Worse Than Said

Ian O — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:44:34 EDT

By James Risen

WASHINGTON — Shoddy electrical work by private contractors on United States military bases in Iraq is widespread and dangerous, causing more deaths and injuries from fires and shocks than the Pentagon has acknowledged, according to internal Army documents.

During just one six-month period — August 2006 through January 2007 — at least 283 electrical fires destroyed or damaged American military facilities in Iraq, including the military’s largest dining hall in the country, documents obtained by The New York Times show. Two soldiers died in an electrical fire at their base near Tikrit in 2006, the records note, while another was injured while jumping from a burning guard tower in May 2007.

And while the Pentagon has previously reported that 13 Americans have been electrocuted in Iraq, many more have been injured, some seriously, by shocks, according to the documents. A log compiled earlier this year at one building complex in Baghdad disclosed that soldiers complained of receiving electrical shocks in their living quarters on an almost daily basis.

Electrical problems were the most urgent noncombat safety hazard for soldiers in Iraq, according to an Army survey issued in February 2007. It noted “a safety threat theaterwide created by the poor-quality electrical fixtures procured and installed, sometimes incorrectly, thus resulting in a significant number of fires.”

The Army report said KBR, the Houston-based company that is responsible for providing basic services for American troops in Iraq, including housing, did its own study and found a “systemic problem” with electrical work.

But the Pentagon did little to address the issue until a Green Beret, Staff Sgt. Ryan D. Maseth, was electrocuted in January while showering. His death, caused by poor electrical grounding, drew the attention of lawmakers and Pentagon leaders after his family pushed for answers. Congress and the Pentagon’s inspector general have begun investigations, and this month senior Army officials ordered electrical inspections of all buildings in Iraq maintained by KBR.

“We consider this to be a very serious issue,” Chris Isleib, a Pentagon spokesman, said Thursday in an e-mail message, while declining to comment on the findings in the Army documents.

Heather Browne, a KBR spokeswoman, would not comment about a company safety study or the reports of electrical fires or shocks, but she said KBR had found no evidence of a link between its work and the electrocutions. She added, “KBR’s commitment to the safety of all employees and those the company serves remains unwavering.”

In public statements, Pentagon officials have not addressed the scope of the hazards, instead mostly focusing on the circumstances surrounding the death of Sergeant Maseth, who lived near Pittsburgh.

But the internal documents, including dozens of memos, e-mail messages and reports from the Army, the Defense Contract Management Agency and other agencies, show that electrical problems were widely recognized as a major safety threat among Pentagon contracting experts. It is impossible to determine the exact number of the resulting deaths and injuries because no single document tallies them up. (The records were compiled for Congressional and Pentagon investigators and obtained independently by The Times.)

The 2007 safety survey was ordered by the top official in Iraq for the Defense Contract Management Agency, which oversees contractors, after the October 2006 electrical fire that killed two soldiers near Tikrit. Paul Dickinson, a Pentagon safety specialist who wrote the report, confirmed its findings, but did not elaborate.

Senior Pentagon officials appear not to have responded to the survey until this May, after Congressional investigators had begun to ask questions. Then they argued that its findings were irrelevant to Sergeant Maseth’s electrocution.

In a memo dated May 26, 2008, a top official of the Defense Contract Management Agency stated that “there is no direct or causal connection” between the problems identified in the survey and those at the Baghdad compound where Sergeant Maseth died.

But in a sworn statement, apparently prepared for an investigation of Sergeant Maseth’s death by the Army’s Criminal Investigative Division, a Pentagon contracting official described how both military and KBR officials were aware of the growing danger from poor electrical work.

In the statement, Ingrid Harrison, an official with the Pentagon’s contracting management agency, disclosed that an electrical fire caused by poor wiring in a nearby building two weeks before Sergeant Maseth’s death had endangered two other soldiers.

“The soldiers were lucky because the one window that they could reach did not have bars on it, or there could have been two other fatalities,” Ms. Harrison said in the statement. She said that after Sergeant Maseth died, a more senior Pentagon contracting official in Baghdad denied knowing about the fire, but she asserted that “it was thoroughly discussed” during internal meetings.

Ms. Harrison added that KBR officials also knew of widespread electrical problems at the Radwaniya Palace Complex, near Baghdad’s airport, where Sergeant Maseth died. “KBR has been at R.P.C. for over four years and was fully aware of the safety hazards, violations and concerns regarding the soldiers’ housing,” she said in the statement. She added that the contractor “chose to ignore the known unsafe conditions.”

Ms. Harrison did not respond to a request for comment.

In another internal document written after Sergeant Maseth’s death, a senior Army officer in Baghdad warned that soldiers had to be moved immediately from several buildings because of electrical risks. In a memo asking for emergency repairs at three buildings, the official warned of a “clear and present danger,” adding, “Exposed wiring, ungrounded distribution panels and inappropriate lighting fixtures render these facilities uninhabitable and unsafe.”

The memo added that “over the course of several months, electrical fires and shorts have compounded these unsafe conditions.”

Since the United States invaded Iraq in 2003, tens of thousands of American troops have been housed in Iraqi buildings that date from the Saddam Hussein era. KBR and other contractors have been paid millions of dollars to repair and upgrade the buildings, including their electrical systems. KBR officials say they handle the maintenance for 4,000 structures and an additional 35,000 containers used as housing in the war zone.

The reports of shoddy electrical work have raised new questions about the Bush administration’s heavy reliance on contractors in Iraq, particularly because they come after other high-profile disputes involving KBR. They include accusations of overbilling, providing unsafe water to soldiers and failing to protect female employees who were sexually assaulted.

Officials say the administration contracted out so much work in Iraq that companies like KBR were simply overwhelmed by the scale of the operations. Some of the electrical work, for example, was turned over to subcontractors, some of which hired unskilled Iraqis who were paid only a few dollars a day.

Government officials responsible for contract oversight, meanwhile, were also unable to keep up, so that unsafe electrical work was not challenged by government auditors.

Several electricians who worked for KBR have said previously in interviews that they repeatedly warned KBR managers and Pentagon and military officials about unsafe electrical work. They said that supervisors had ignored their concerns or, in some cases, lacked the training to understand the problems.

The Army documents cite a number of recent safety threats. One report showed that during a four-day period in late February, soldiers at a Baghdad compound reported being shocked while taking showers in different buildings. The circumstances appear similar to those that led to Sergeant Maseth’s death.

Another entry from early March stated that an entire house used by American troops was electrically charged, making it unlivable.

Since the Pentagon reports were compiled, more episodes linked to electrical problems have occurred. In late June, for example, an electrical fire at a Marine base in Falluja destroyed 10 buildings, forcing marines there to ask for donations from home to replace their personal belongings.

On July 5, Sgt. First Class Anthony Lynn Woodham of the Arkansas National Guard died at his base in Tallil, Iraq. Initial reports blamed electrocution, but his death is being investigated because of conflicting information, according to his wife, Crystal Woodham, and a spokesman for the Arkansas National Guard.

Continued Lead in New Jersey; Dead Heat in Virginia

Ian O — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 09:49:45 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Virginia – The presidential race in Virginia is now dead even, with Barack Obama and John McCain each drawing 44% of the vote, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

If “leaners” are factored in, McCain leads by a statistically insignificant one percentage point 48% to 47%.

Despite the close race, one potentially worrisome fact for the Democratic candidate is that nearly one out of two Virginia voters (47%) now view him unfavorably. That’s up from 44% in May and June. The number who see him in a Very Unfavorable light stands at 31%.

McCain’s unfavorables, by contrast, have held steady at 36% for the past two months and only 13% have a Very Unfavorable view of him.

Just last month Obama edged ahead of McCain in Virginia for the first time 45% to 44%. Although that lead was statistically insignificant, the narrowness of the contest in a state that has gone Republican in every presidential contest since 1968 has buoyed Democratic hopes of adding it to their column this November.

http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/newjersey_poll_071808.htm

New Jersey – With President Bush’s abysmal poll numbers in the Garden State, John McCain trails Barack Obama by nine points with 15% of voters still undecided. Overall, only 15% of New Jersey voters approve of the President’s overall job performance. Even more striking, a mere 14% approve of the way he has handled the economy. On the international stage, the success of the “surge” has not changed New Jersey residents negative view of the President’s handling of Iraq (only 33% approve) and 49% of the poll’s respondents said they favor withdrawing American forces from Iraq within six months.

Obama Takes Lead in Nevada; McCain Struggling in North Carolina

Ian O — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 22:36:49 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

Nevada – In Nevada, Barack Obama has a two-point edge over John McCain according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. It’s Obama 42% and McCain 40%. When “leaners” are included, Obama is on top 47% to 45%. Nevada is one of three southwestern states targeted by the Obama campaign. Like New Mexico and Colorado, it went narrowly for President Bush four years ago.

While the presumptive Democratic nominee’s lead in Nevada is statistically insignificant, it represents quite a change from the last three polls. In each of those, McCain held the advantage by margins ranging from three to six points. A month ago, it was McCain 45%, Obama 42%. Two months ago, McCain had a six point lead and three months ago the GOP hopeful was up by five.

McCain now leads among men by ten but trails by twelve among women. He retains a seventeen point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama currently attracts 79% support from Democrats in the state. That’s up five points from a month ago and up fourteen points from two months ago when Clinton was still in the race. McCain wins the vote from 76% of Republicans, little changed from a month ago.

Both candidates gained five percentage points in support when leaners are included in the totals. Most of Obama’s increase came from Democrats leaning in his direction. Most of McCain’s increase came from unaffiliated voters.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

North Carolina – The race is still close between John McCain and Barack Obama in the traditionally red state of North Carolina. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 45% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. When “leaners” are included, McCain leads 48% to 45%.

McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%.

McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women.

Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama’s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month.

Obama Sixteen Points Atop McCain in Washington State

Ian O — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:39:27 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=af0ed9a6-2667-4178-876d-5695b77955b8

Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 55% to 39% in an election for President of the United States in Washington State today, 07/15/08, 111 days until the election, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland Oregon.

There is little movement compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago: Obama is down 1 point; McCain is flat. Obama continues to lead among men and women, young and old, among whites and minorities. 14% of Republicans cross-over to vote for Democrat Obama; 10% of Democrats cross-over to vote for Republican McCain. Independents break 4:3 for Obama. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 19, down from 24 last month. Among voters older than McCain, Obama leads by 24, up from 4 last month.

NY Times: Obama Raises $52 Million in June

Ian O — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:10:47 EDT

By Jeff Zeleny

Senator Barack Obama raised $52 million in June, his campaign announced on Thursday morning, more than twice the amount he raised one month earlier before claiming the Democratic presidential nomination.

“We have some big news we want to share with you,” campaign manager David Plouffe said in a message to supporters. “Because of your generosity and commitment, we’re reporting to the press today that this campaign is in a very strong financial position.”

The average contribution to the campaign, he said, was $68.

After breaking fund-raising records throughout the winter and spring, some supporters feared that Mr. Obama’s contributions had slowed considerably. In May, he raised $21.9 million, one of his weakest months.

When asked about the health of his fund-raising a few days ago, Mr. Obama played down any concern, telling reporters: “I think you guys should wait until we release our numbers to make a decision as to how underwhelming they are.”

Last week, Senator John McCain announced that he had raised $22 million in June, which was the best fund-raising month of his campaign. So while Mr. Obama’s $52 million haul is significantly higher, he also faces a bigger fund-raising burden because of his decision to not accept public financing.

In his message to supporters on Thursday, Mr. Plouffe said the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee ended the month of June with a combined total of nearly $72 million in the bank. While he called it “a healthy number,” he noted that Mr. McCain and the Republican National Committee finished June with nearly $100 million on hand.

“We’re facing a Republican machine with unprecedented resources at its disposal,” Mr. Plouffe said.

Mr. Obama has been spending a considerable time raising money in June, with fund-raising events in virtually every city he passes through. The campaign, which is the first to forego public financing since the system was created three decades ago, has set a goal of raising $200 to $300 million for their general election effort.

A Needed Surge

Ian O — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 18:59:35 EDT

More US troops may go to Afghanistan this year

By LOLITA C. BALDOR, Associated Press Writer

Pentagon leaders on Wednesday signaled a surge in U.S. forces in Afghanistan "sooner rather than later" — a shift that could come later this year as they prepare to cut troop levels in Iraq.

Faced with an increasingly sophisticated insurgency, particularly along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan, defense officials said sending more troops would have a significant impact on the violence.

"I think that we are clearly working very hard to see if there are opportunities to send additional forces sooner rather than later," Defense Secretary Robert Gates told Pentagon reporters. But, he added that no final decisions or recommendations have been made.

His comments suggested an acceleration in what had been plans to shift forces there early next year. And they came as the political discourse on Afghanistan as a key military priority escalated on both Capitol Hill and the presidential campaign trail.

Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who recently returned from meetings with commanders in Afghanistan, said they clearly want more troops now.

"It's a tougher fight, it's a more complex fight, and they need more troops to have the long-term impact that we all want to have there," said Mullen, who also met last week with Pakistani leaders.

The Pentagon has been wrestling with how to provide what they say is a much needed military buildup in Afghanistan, while they still have 150,000 troops in Iraq. Gates and Mullen have repeatedly said they would have to reduce troop levels in Iraq before they could dedicate more forces to Afghanistan.

Mullen, who was in Iraq last week, told reporters that he is likely to recommend further troop reductions there this fall. He said he found that conditions in Iraq had improved more than he expected.

"I won't go so far as to say that progress in Iraq from a military perspective has reached a tipping point or is irreversible — it has not, and it is not," Mullen told a Pentagon press conference.

"But security is unquestionably and remarkably better. Indeed, if these trends continue I expect to be able early this fall to recommend to the secretary and the president further troop reductions," he said.

The military buildup in Iraq that began more than 18 months ago has ended, now that the last of the five additional combat brigades sent in by President Bush last year has left the country.

Its departure marks the end of what the Pentagon called the "surge." And it starts the 45-day evaluation period that Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, told Congress he would need to assess the security situation and determine how many more troops he could send home.

Neither Gates nor Mullen would detail how they intend to juggle the military requirements in Iraq and Afghanistan, they spoke more aggressively about meeting Afghan needs more quickly.

Gates said commanders are looking at moving forces around to take advantage of a small boost in French troops expected in Afghanistan. But he ruled out rolling back some of the promises the Pentagon made to soldiers limiting their deployments to 12 months.

"I think we're looking at a variety of options on how to respond here," Gates said. "I will tell you that I have sought assurances that there will be no return to longer-than-12-month deployments, so that's not something we're considering."

Also, he said he is not aware of any plans to extend the deployments of any U.S. troops currently there.

Gates and Mullen also has strong words for Pakistan, saying Islamabad must do a better job preventing Taliban and other insurgents from crossing the border into Afghanistan to wage attacks.

The absence of pressure from the Pakistanis, Gates said, is giving militants a greater opportunity to penetrate the porous mountain border. He said the key is to further convince the Pakistani government that their country is also at great risk from the insurgents.

Gates said it is an exaggeration to say that the border problems have escalated into a war between Pakistan and Afghanistan. And he also dismissed as untrue suggestions that the U.S. is massing troops along the border preparing to launch attacks into Pakistan.

His comments came as U.S. troops abandoned a remote outpost in eastern Afghanistan where militants killed nine of their comrades this week in a large, coordinated attack. Elsewhere in the frontier region, NATO launched artillery and helicopter strikes in Pakistan after coming under insurgent rocket fire, officials said.

There are currently 36,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, including 17,500 with the NATO-led force, and 18,500 who are fighting insurgents and training Afghan forces.

Steady Lead in Oregon

Ian O — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 15:06:56 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election

Oregon – Barack Obama leads John McCain 46% to 37%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. These results are virtually identical to those from a month ago. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 40%. These results mark the fourth time in five statewide polls this year that Obama has enjoyed a lead ranging from six to nine percentage points. Once, enjoying a bounce from his participation in Oregon’s Democratic Presidential Primary, he opened a fourteen point lead.

Obama Has Huge Lead in California; Slightly Trails in North Carolina

Ian O — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 10:26:43 EDT

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2276.pdf

California – Highlights of the latest Field Poll of Californians likely to vote in the upcoming November presidential election reveal the following:

Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain by twenty-four points (54% to 30%) in California.

More Democratic Primary voters think Obama should not select Hillary Clinton as his vice-presidential running mate (48%) as feel he should (40%). Yet, the decision of whether Obama does or doesn't choose Clinton would have little effect on how these voters would vote in the fall.

Obama has consolidated the support of California Democrats and non-partisans who voted for Clinton in California's February 5th primary election. The poll shows Obama preferred over McCain by 80% to 8% among these voters.

Three times as many Obama voters (51%) as McCain voters (17%) say they are “very enthusiastic” about supporting their candidate for president in November.

Obama's image rating among the overall California electorate (63% favorable vs. 26% unfavorable) is more positive than McCain's (48% to 38%).

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ca6e1d32-419f-4b81-abcd-955578237b7d

North Carolina – In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina today, 07/15/08, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama 50% to 45%, according to the latest WTVD-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to an identical survey released 8 weeks ago, little has changed, and most changes that have occurred are offsetting.

Overall, Obama is up 2 points, McCain down 1. Among women, McCain had led by 2, now trails by 7; among men, McCain had led by 14, now leads by 20 -- a 27 point gender gap. Among voters age 50 to 64, McCain had led by 11, now leads by 2 -- but that gain is erased by voters age 65+, where McCain had led by 12, but now leads by 26. Among white voters, McCain continues to lead 2:1; among black voters, Obama leads 15:1. 22% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain, down slightly from 28% eight weeks ago. 8% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama, down slightly from 12%. Among the 15% of likely voters who describe themselves as independents, McCain had led by 9; today, Obama leads by 2 among Independents.

Double Digit Leads in Washington and NY

Ian O — Wed, 16 Jul 2008 07:29:32 EDT

http://www.moore-info.com/MI_WAElections7.08.htm

Washington – General election match ups in Washington State reveal Barack Obama leading John McCain by 10 points in the presidential race. According to a columnist from The Oregonian (http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/07/gop_poll_rossi_strong_mccain_n.html), Portland pollster Bob Moore is working for Dino Rossi, the Republican candidate for Washington governor. So it’s interesting that the poll's credibility is bolstered by the fact that it shows Obama with a solid double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Washington.

http://www.siena.edu/level2col.aspx?menu_id=562&id=18277

New York – The new Siena Poll shows that Barack Obama continues to have a double digit lead over John McCain with supporters of both candidates reasonably certain they will not change their minds before November.

Times/CBS Poll: Iraq Still a Dividing Line

Ian O — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:56:42 EDT

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/15/timescbs-poll-iraq-still-a-dividing-line/

By Dalia Sussman

As Senators Barack Obama and John McCain stress their differing positions on how to deal with the war in Iraq, most Americans continue to say the United States should never have taken military action against Iraq even as they are increasingly likely to say the situation there is now going well.

In the latest poll by The New York Times/CBS News, 45 percent of Americans say efforts to bring order and stability to Iraq are going well, up 20 points from a year ago. Still, six in 10 of the poll’s respondents say the United States should have stayed out of Iraq.

The issue poses a challenge for Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, as he details his plan for how to deal with the war. Nearly 8 in 10 in the poll say he would generally continue George W. Bush’s policies in Iraq. That’s not an association that works to his advantage – recent polls have shown a broad majority disapproves of how Mr. Bush is handling the situation there.

As has long been the case, views of the war in Iraq divide sharply along partisan lines. Seven in 10 Republicans say taking military action was the right thing to do, while 8 in 10 Democrats and 6 in 10 independents say the United States should have stayed out.

Republicans are also far more apt to say the situation there is going well: Seventy-five percent say so, while just 25 percent of Democrats agree. Independents fall in-between, with 47 percent of them saying things are going well in Iraq.

The nationwide telephone poll was conducted from July 7-14 with 1,796 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

South Carolina - McCain with six-point lead

Ian O — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 15:54:19 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_SC_715.pdf

South Carolina – Barack Obama’s candidacy may make South Carolina more competitive than it has been in recent years, but John McCain still has a solid lead in the state, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.

McCain leads Obama 45-39. An additional 5% say they plan to support Libertarian Bob Barr.

Obama is doing well with the groups that fueled his blowout win in the South Carolina Democratic primary. He leads 77-10 with black voters and 54-32 with voters between the ages of 18 and 29. McCain leads pretty much every other demographic group.

Christian Science Monitor Profile of David Axelrod

Ian O — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:51:04 EDT

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0715/p01s04-uspo.html

David Axelrod: architect of Obama's unlikely campaign

Barack Obama's chief strategist grew up loving the political fight while holding to the ideals in the message.

By Amanda Paulson | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Chicago - These days, it's hard to remember a time when Barack Obama wasn't a front-runner for the Democratic nomination.

But last fall, Sen. Obama was down 33 points in one national poll, Hillary Rodham Clinton was the presumptive nominee, and Obama's campaign staff was under enormous pressure to shake things up and try a different tactic.

They didn't.

That decision – to stick to a largely positive message rooted in hope and change, convinced it was the one that would resonate with the public – is due in large part to Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod.

"Barack was the insurgent here, and he won, and that's a testament to Barack and to David, because history is against the insurgent," says Rahm Emanuel, a Democratic congressman from Illinois and a friend of Mr. Axelrod. "These guys decided to double down on 'change' ... They took a gamble that people's attitudes would still be hungry for more of the same."

As political scientists dissect just what happened between last fall and this spring, and how a junior senator with a funny name and little experience on the national stage was able to dethrone the Clintons, much of the credit will likely go to Axelrod – and to what is a pairing of candidate and adviser who are unusually well suited to each other.

He's Obama's answer to Karl Rove, the big-picture architect of the campaign who always seems to have his pulse on what will resonate with voters. But he's also, say colleagues, a rarity among political advisers: someone who still carries the idealism that got him started in the business.

"In a world where cynicism reigns supreme, he's a believer," says David Wilhelm, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, who got to know Axelrod in 1984 when they were both working on the campaign of former Illinois Senator Paul Simon.

Axelrod cut his political teeth at age 13 as a boy living in Stuyvesant Town when he sold bumper stickers and buttons for Robert Kennedy's campaign.

"The times made people focused on politics, and David in particular," says Robert Swidler, a lawyer in Troy, N.Y., who grew up with Axelrod.

The assassinations of Kennedy and of Martin Luther King Jr. had a big impact, says Mr. Swidler. "You had to fight against disillusionment and cynicism and becoming angry. David just became committed."

Axelrod moved to Chicago for college, then spent several years as a rising young political reporter at the Chicago Tribune before deciding that he preferred practicing politics to writing about it, leaving to work for Simon's senatorial campaign.

While he's worked for a few "really bad machine hacks" over the years, there have been fewer and fewer of them as Axelrod became established, says Don Rose, a Chicago political consultant and early mentor of Axelrod.

And over the years he's mounted an impressive roster of clients – including Representative Emanuel, Sen. Herb Kohl, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, and Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

He has a close relationship with longtime Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, a client for 20 years, and he's done campaign work for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, and Sen. Chris Dodd – all vying for the nomination this year. But apparently Axelrod never has believed in a client as much as he does in Obama. "It's one of those things, where you pray for the day when you meet the right candidate and you meet at the right moment, and David Axelrod has done both of those," says Mr. Wilhelm.

Both men are from Chicago, and Axelrod first met Obama 15 years ago when Obama was a 30-year-old community organizer. Their friendship was solidified during Obama's 2004 run for the US Senate. Axelrod ran his campaign despite the fact that Obama was a little-known state senator who seemed to have little chance of beating his well-funded opponents.

Axelrod has a talent for mining his clients' biographies for details that will resonate with voters, and in Obama, he has found a uniquely American story to work with.

"David understands that the candidate himself – the candidate's values, the candidate's story – are what drives the message of the campaign," says Forrest Claypool, a member of the Cook County Board of Commissioners and Axelrod's partner when he first began a political consulting business. "One of his strengths is to tie the individual story of candidates to the message and values that they're conveying on the campaign trail."

Axelrod doesn't shy away from negative campaigning, and colleagues point to some brutal ones he has run in the past. But in Obama, he sensed that the message that would resonate – and that was most natural to his client – was one that focused on ideals, hope, unity, and change.

Indeed, since Obama announced his candidacy on a frigid Saturday in February of last year – telling the crowd of an "unyielding faith that in the face of impossible odds, people who love their country can change it" – that core message has remained largely unchanged. Axelrod "had the initial vision of how this campaign might succeed," says John Kupper, a partner at Axelrod's firm.

"To make this decision to run is a huge personal sacrifice and commitment. Barack didn't want to be out chasing rainbows here," he says. "I think David is the guy who felt that Barack had a winning message and saw the path and put together a team that could help execute that plan."

Still, the success of that message was tested over the months, as Obama continued to trail in the polls and many pushed the campaign to increase attacks on Clinton or to shake up the campaign.

Both observers and those inside the campaign give much of the credit for resisting that pressure not just to Axelrod, but to the team that he and Obama built up.

Many of them had worked together for years, and they were selected in part for their ability to work as a team – starting with David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. Many credit Mr. Plouffe, who is a partner in Axelrod's firm and a longtime friend, with the ultimately successful decision to eschew traditional wisdom and focus on rural and caucus states.

The seamlessness of the operation bore a stark contrast to the constant bickering and shake-ups within the Clinton organization, a far more typical model for presidential campaigns.

"Oftentimes, presidential campaigns are organizations of ill-fitting pieces jammed together by competing power centers," says Mr. Claypool. "That results in rivalries, turf wars, backbiting, intrigue, and drama – all the things missing from this campaign."

Axelrod, Claypool and others say, is a collegial manager who values – and actively seeks out – others' opinions. He's constantly obsessing over whether he got something right and he seeks out countering viewpoints – a trait many say he shares with Obama. The two have meshed well together in other ways as well, including the premium both place on language and the power of words.

Referred to by many in the campaign as "keeper of the message," Axelrod has a knack for honing the phrases and ideas that will resonate with everyday voters – and for anticipating and dealing with attacks.

"He's got what musicians would call perfect pitch," says Mr. Rose. "That's something you can develop, but a great deal of it is inherent."

Emanuel, a close friend who had Axelrod sign the ketubah (the Jewish marriage covenant) at his wedding, remembers his first run for his north Chicago congressional district, when he was criticized as being a wealthy outsider.

Axelrod created an ad with a Chicago policeman endorsing him – revealed at the end of the commercial to be Emanuel's uncle. "One-third of the Chicago police department lives in my district. It grounded me here," says Emanuel.

When Axelrod ran Mayor Daley's first campaign, he anticipated the criticisms that the sometimes awkward Daley wasn't up to the job. He ran an unconventional ad in which Daley told his audience that he might not be the best speaker, but he knew how to lead a city.

"It took away in one fell swoop the most likely line of attack," says Wilhelm.

With Obama's campaign, Axelrod has dealt with several crises – most notably regarding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright – and he's now gearing up for an even more brutal fight in the general election.

As a bigger operation, the campaign has had to hire many more people and delegate more decisions, and some worry whether that same collegial dynamic can be maintained. "The circle is expanding, more people are involved, and it becomes an even bigger management challenge," says Mr. Kupper. "But I think we've tried to put a premium on bringing aboard people who we like and respect."

The campaign has already signaled a few unconventional strategies since clinching the nomination, from the decision to campaign seriously in as many as 25 states to the announcement that Obama will give his acceptance speech in Denver's Invesco Field, which can seat more than 70,000 people – a move reminiscent of John F. Kennedy, the last candidate to accept the nomination in a stadium.

It remains to be seen whether the message Obama and Axelrod crafted together will hold up through November, or resonate as well with general election voters as it did in the primary. But observers say the campaign, so far, will go down in history books as a premier example of how an underdog can take on the establishment.

"This was truly a marathon, not a sprint, and I don't think Barack Obama ever really lost a sense of what he was trying to accomplish," says Wilhelm. "I look at Axelrod and the team, and the fact that they were able to persevere and win in the face of the extraordinary challenge represented by Senator Clinton and the national campaign organization that she put on the field as being one of the seminal achievements of modern-day politics."

Large Leads in Minnesota and Iowa; Even in South Dakota

Ian O — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 19:46:02 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election

Iowa – Barack Obama has taken a double-digit lead over John McCain 48% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Iowa. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat is ahead 51% to 41%.

In June, Obama enjoyed a seven-point lead in the battleground state. That lead represented a push for Obama from May, when he was ahead by just 2 percentage points. McCain has held steady now at 38% for two months in a row. The race is closer among voters not affiliated with either political party. Among those voters, Obama has a 38% to 34% lead. In June, Obama had a much larger lead 44% to 29% lead among those voters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/minnesota/election_2008_minnesota_presidential_election

Minnesota – Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain in Minnesota has now grown to 18%, all at the expense of voters who have moved out of the Republican’s column, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

For the second month in a row, 52% back Obama, compared to 34% who now support McCain. But last month McCain had the support of 39% of Minnesota voters. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads McCain by 17% -- 54% to 37%.

Obama has maintained a 13- to 15-point lead in four out of the previous five monthly polls. The only exception came in mid-March – soon after McCain wrapped up his party’s nomination and the controversial remarks of Obama’s pastor, Jeremiah Wright, were first reported -- when McCain was within four points of his Democratic opponent.

While Obama and McCain maintain the support of more than eight out of 10 members of their respective parties, both have lost ground among unaffiliated voters, 25% of whom remain undecided. Obama leads McCain 45% to 23% among the unaffiliated, but both are down 7% from early June. The Democrat outpolls his Republican opponent nearly two-to-one among women voters 57% to 30%. He also has the support of 45% of men versus 39% who back McCain.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2

South Dakota – In South Dakota, John McCain leads Barack Obama by just four percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds McCain with 44% of the vote and Obama with 40%. When “leaners” are included, it’s still a four-point race – McCain 47% Obama 43%.

South Dakota joins several states to the north and west of Obama’s home in Illinois where the Democrat’s presumptive nominee is doing very well. Obama has a slight lead in Montana and is even in North Dakota, both traditionally Republican states at the Presidential level. Obama has big leads in Minnesota and Wisconsin, states that lean Democratic but have been very competitive in recent years.

South Dakota is one state where McCain is struggling among Republican voters. He earns the vote from just 71% of the GOP faithful while Obama is supported by 21%. Another 6% say they would opt for a third-party option.

Obama Leads in Colorado

Ian O — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 15:32:41 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_714.pdf

Colorado – Barack Obama has a four point lead in Colorado, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. Obama has 47%, compared to John McCain’s 43%. The Hispanic vote is the key to Obama’s success in the state. The state has a small black population, and McCain leads 46-45 among white voters. Obama’s lead comes from a 58-34 advantage with the state’s growing Hispanic population. In addition, Obama is also leading among independent voters in the state by a margin of 50-30. He leads with every age group except those over 65.

Obama Increases Lead in Michigan

Ian O — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 13:36:59 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

Michigan – Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%.

In May, McCain had a statistically insignificant one-point lead, but Obama has been gaining ground since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. McCain enjoys only a 46% to 41% lead over Obama among male voters now, down from a 19-percentage point lead in May. The Democrat shows a slight uptick among women voters who have consistently supported him over McCain. Now women favor Obama 51% to 35%.

While party regulars overwhelmingly support their respective candidates, Obama has turned it around with unaffiliated voters. Last month McCain had a five-point lead, down from 13 points a month earlier. Now Obama leads among unaffiliated voters 42% to 35%.

New Yorker Magazine Reaches A New Low

Ian O — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:49:39 EDT

New Yorker mag's 'satire' cover draws Team Obama's ire

By Stephanie Gaskell
Daily News Staff Writer

Barack Obama's campaign lashed out Sunday at the editors of The New Yorker magazine for a cartoon cover that depicts the Democratic candidate and his wife as fist-bumping terrorists.

The magazine's editor described the cartoon, called "The Politics of Fear," as satire. The Obama campaign called it "tasteless and offensive."

The Illinois senator is depicted in traditional Muslim garb in the Barry Blitt illustration set in the Oval Office.

His wife, Michelle, is in fatigues, sporting an Angela Davis-style sky-high Afro, an AK-47 slung over her shoulder.

A portrait of terror kingpin Osama Bin Laden hangs above the fireplace, in which an American flag is set ablaze.

"The New Yorker may think, as one of their staff explained to us, that their cover is a satirical lampoon of the caricature Sen. Obama's right-wing critics have tried to create. But most readers will see it as tasteless and offensive. And we agree," Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said.

New Yorker editor David Remnick seemed shocked by the backlash.

"Our cover ... combines a number of fantastical images about the Obamas and shows them for the obvious distortions they are," he said in a statement.

"The burning flag, the nationalist-radical and Islamic outfits, the fist-bump, the portrait on the wall - all of them echo one attack or another. Satire is part of what we do, and it is meant to bring things out into the open, to hold up a mirror to the absurd. And that's the spirit of this cover," Remnick said.

The magazine does not explain the cover. Inside are lengthy stories that look at how Chicago politics shaped the candidate and at allegations that he flip-flops on major issues.

Obama brushed off the brouhaha. "I have no response to that," he told reporters when asked about the cover, but his supporters are infuriated.

The McCain campaign joined in piling on The New Yorker. "We completely agree with the Obama campaign that it's tasteless and offensive," said campaign spokesman Tucker Bounds.

NY Times Op-Ed: My Plan for Iraq

Ian O — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:44:24 EDT

By Barack Obama

CHICAGO — The call by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki for a timetable for the removal of American troops from Iraq presents an enormous opportunity. We should seize this moment to begin the phased redeployment of combat troops that I have long advocated, and that is needed for long-term success in Iraq and the security interests of the United States.

The differences on Iraq in this campaign are deep. Unlike Senator John McCain, I opposed the war in Iraq before it began, and would end it as president. I believed it was a grave mistake to allow ourselves to be distracted from the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban by invading a country that posed no imminent threat and had nothing to do with the 9/11 attacks. Since then, more than 4,000 Americans have died and we have spent nearly $1 trillion. Our military is overstretched. Nearly every threat we face — from Afghanistan to Al Qaeda to Iran — has grown.

In the 18 months since President Bush announced the surge, our troops have performed heroically in bringing down the level of violence. New tactics have protected the Iraqi population, and the Sunni tribes have rejected Al Qaeda — greatly weakening its effectiveness.

But the same factors that led me to oppose the surge still hold true. The strain on our military has grown, the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated and we’ve spent nearly $200 billion more in Iraq than we had budgeted. Iraq’s leaders have failed to invest tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues in rebuilding their own country, and they have not reached the political accommodation that was the stated purpose of the surge.

The good news is that Iraq’s leaders want to take responsibility for their country by negotiating a timetable for the removal of American troops. Meanwhile, Lt. Gen. James Dubik, the American officer in charge of training Iraq’s security forces, estimates that the Iraqi Army and police will be ready to assume responsibility for security in 2009.

Only by redeploying our troops can we press the Iraqis to reach comprehensive political accommodation and achieve a successful transition to Iraqis’ taking responsibility for the security and stability of their country. Instead of seizing the moment and encouraging Iraqis to step up, the Bush administration and Senator McCain are refusing to embrace this transition — despite their previous commitments to respect the will of Iraq’s sovereign government. They call any timetable for the removal of American troops “surrender,” even though we would be turning Iraq over to a sovereign Iraqi government.

But this is not a strategy for success — it is a strategy for staying that runs contrary to the will of the Iraqi people, the American people and the security interests of the United States. That is why, on my first day in office, I would give the military a new mission: ending this war.

As I’ve said many times, we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 — two years from now, and more than seven years after the war began. After this redeployment, a residual force in Iraq would perform limited missions: going after any remnants of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protecting American service members and, so long as the Iraqis make political progress, training Iraqi security forces. That would not be a precipitous withdrawal.

In carrying out this strategy, we would inevitably need to make tactical adjustments. As I have often said, I would consult with commanders on the ground and the Iraqi government to ensure that our troops were redeployed safely, and our interests protected. We would move them from secure areas first and volatile areas later. We would pursue a diplomatic offensive with every nation in the region on behalf of Iraq’s stability, and commit $2 billion to a new international effort to support Iraq’s refugees.

Ending the war is essential to meeting our broader strategic goals, starting in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where the Taliban is resurgent and Al Qaeda has a safe haven. Iraq is not the central front in the war on terrorism, and it never has been. As Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently pointed out, we won’t have sufficient resources to finish the job in Afghanistan until we reduce our commitment to Iraq.

As president, I would pursue a new strategy, and begin by providing at least two additional combat brigades to support our effort in Afghanistan. We need more troops, more helicopters, better intelligence-gathering and more nonmilitary assistance to accomplish the mission there. I would not hold our military, our resources and our foreign policy hostage to a misguided desire to maintain permanent bases in Iraq.

In this campaign, there are honest differences over Iraq, and we should discuss them with the thoroughness they deserve. Unlike Senator McCain, I would make it absolutely clear that we seek no presence in Iraq similar to our permanent bases in South Korea, and would redeploy our troops out of Iraq and focus on the broader security challenges that we face. But for far too long, those responsible for the greatest strategic blunder in the recent history of American foreign policy have ignored useful debate in favor of making false charges about flip-flops and surrender.

It’s not going to work this time. It’s time to end this war.

Obama Surges Ahead in Missouri

Ian O — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:39:51 EDT

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/84EC6E3C5EAE4FF586257484000FDDED?OpenDocument

Missouri – The latest poll of Missouri voters conducted for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV by Research 2000, a Maryland-based polling firm, shows Obama with a five-point lead over John McCain (48-43) with 9 percent of those interviewed still undecided. According to the poll, Missouri voters are frightened about the economy, hurting over high gas prices, disillusioned with the war in Iraq and convinced the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

It seems that such a pessimistic view of the country is prompting many of them to turn to Barack Obama. By significant margins, the 800 likely voters polled last week said they trust the expected Democratic presidential nominee more than his Republican rival, John McCain, when it comes to tackling many of the nation's domestic troubles.

Large Lead in State of Washington

Ian O — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:06:24 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/washington/election_2008_washington_presidential_election

Washington – The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Washington finds Obama ahead 48% to 39%. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 51% to 43%.

While Obama has a decisive 52% to 35% lead over McCain among women in Washington, the two candidates are essentially tied among men. McCain is supported by 91% of Republicans and Obama earns the vote from 83% of Democrats. Neither candidate has a significant edge over among voters not affiliated with either political party.

Obama is viewed favorably by 59% of Washington voters and unfavorably by 40%. McCain’s numbers are 55% favorable, 45% unfavorable. The latest numbers from the Evergreen State show a much closer race than last month, when Obama led 53% to 35%. However, they are similar to results from the prior survey in May.

Obama's Lead in Wisconsin Grows

Ian O — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:24:58 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2008_wisconsin_presidential_election

Wisconsin – The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Wisconsin shows Barack Obama earning 50% of the vote while John McCain attracts support from 39%. This is a big improvement for Obama who held a statistically insignificant two point lead in the state a month ago. Last month’s poll was taken just before Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race. When “leaners” are included in the current totals, it’s Obama 52% and McCain 42%.

Obama’s home state of Illinois may be helping the Democrat in Wisconsin, a state that has been agonizingly close in recent Presidential elections. Three other states along the nation’s northern border and just west of Wisconsin are also showing surprising Democratic strength early in this election cycle. Obama leads big in Minnesota, leads narrowly in Montana, and the two candidates are tied in North Dakota.

Obama and McCain tied in Historic Republican Stronghold of North Dakota; Large Lead in Home State

Ian O — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 16:46:47 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election

North Dakota – This is as safe a Republican state as any in Presidential elections. George W. Bush carried North Dakota by twenty-seven points in 2004 and twenty-eight points four years earlier. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1936 and three times since 1916.

Despite that history, John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters. Both men earn 43% of the vote. When leaners are included, McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point advantage, 47% to 46%. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports survey showed Obama with a five-point advantage in neighboring Montana. That state, too, has a long history of voting Republican at the Presidential level but both states also have two Democratic U.S. Senators.

In North Dakota, McCain leads by double digits among men but trails by nine among women. McCain earns the vote from 87% of Republicans while Obama attracts 79% of Democrats and holds an eighteen point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama leads by twenty points among those who consider economic issues most important while McCain has a thirty-seven point lead among those who see national security as the highest priority. Thirty-nine percent (39%) view the economy as most important while 24% say the same about national security.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/illinois/election_2008_illinois_presidential_election

Illinois – Barack Obama leads John McCain 50% to 37% in his home state of Illinois, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 52% to 41%. As in many states, Obama has a strong lead among women in Illinois, but not among men. He leads 55% to 35% among women, but just 43% to 40% among male voters. The two candidates are essentially tied among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Obama Leads in Maine With Large Amount of Undecided Voters

Ian O — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 10:22:16 EDT

http://bangornews.com/news/t/news.aspx?articleid=166908&zoneid=164

Maine – According to the results of the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll, those surveyed about the upcoming Presidential election picked Barack Obama (36.8 percent) over John McCain (25.8 percent). A total of 18.3 percent said they were still undecided.

President Bush didn’t rate very well, with 68 percent of those polled rating his presidency as a “failure.” Asked what is the most important issue facing Maine today, 22.3 percent of respondents answered jobs.

Obama Continues to Lead in NJ

Ian O — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 22:57:30 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_jersey/election_2008_new_jersey_presidential_election

New Jersey – The gap between the two major presidential contenders has narrowed to 5% in New Jersey, as some of Obama’s support appears to have slipped off into the undecided column over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Jersey voters, taken Monday night, shows Obama ahead of Republican candidate John McCain 44% to 39%. Last month, the Democratic hopeful had a 48% to 39% lead over his GOP rival. Now 11% of voters describe themselves as undecided, up from 6% in early June, while five percent (5%) favor some other candidate.

Two new polls show Missouri practically a dead heat

Ian O — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 16:16:22 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_7091.pdf

Missouri – The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 42%. A month ago, the candidates were essentially even. That survey was conducted the night that Obama clinched the Democratic Presidential nomination. McCain had the advantage in earlier surveys. When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 45%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 45% to 42%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by six.

McCain leads Obama by three points (47-44) in the first Missouri poll conducted by Public Policy Polling. Among independents in the state, he holds a 46-38 advantage.

Bob Herbert: Lurching With Abandon

Ian O — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 07:25:23 EDT

In one of the numbers from “Fiddler on the Roof,” Tevye sings, with a mixture of emotions: “We haven’t got the man ... we had when we began.”

Back in January when Barack Obama pulled off his stunning win in the Iowa caucuses, and people were lining up in the cold and snow for hours just to get a glimpse of him, there was a wide and growing belief — encouraged to the max by the candidate — that something new in American politics had arrived.

His brilliant, nationally televised victory speech in Des Moines sent a shiver of hope through much of the electorate. “The time has come for a president who will be honest about the choices and the challenges we face,” said Senator Obama, “who will listen to you and learn from you, even when we disagree, who won’t just tell you what you want to hear, but what you need to know.”

Only an idiot would think or hope that a politician going through the crucible of a presidential campaign could hold fast to every position, steer clear of the stumbling blocks of nuance and never make a mistake. But Barack Obama went out of his way to create the impression that he was a new kind of political leader — more honest, less cynical and less relentlessly calculating than most.

You would be able to listen to him without worrying about what the meaning of “is” is.

This is why so many of Senator Obama’s strongest supporters are uneasy, upset, dismayed and even angry at the candidate who is now emerging in the bright light of summer.

One issue or another might not have made much difference. Tacking toward the center in a general election is as common as kissing babies in a campaign, and lord knows the Democrats need to expand their coalition.

But Senator Obama is not just tacking gently toward the center. He’s lurching right when it suits him, and he’s zigging with the kind of reckless abandon that’s guaranteed to cause disillusion, if not whiplash.

So there he was in Zanesville, Ohio, pandering to evangelicals by promising not just to maintain the Bush program of investing taxpayer dollars in religious-based initiatives, but to expand it. Separation of church and state? Forget about it.

And there he was, in the midst of an election campaign in which the makeup of the Supreme Court is as important as it has ever been, agreeing with Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas that the death penalty could be imposed for crimes other than murder. What was the man thinking?

Thankfully, a majority on the court left the barbaric Scalia-Thomas-Obama (and John McCain) reasoning behind and held that capital punishment would apply only to homicides.

“What’s he doing?” is the most common question heard recently from Obama supporters.

For one thing, he’s taking his base for granted, apparently believing that such stalwart supporters as blacks, progressives and pumped-up younger voters will be with him no matter what. A taste of the backlash this can produce erupted on the candidate’s own Web site.

Thousands of Obama supporters flooded the site with protests over his decision to support an electronic surveillance bill that gives retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies that participated in the Bush administration’s warrantless wiretapping program. The senator had previously promised to filibuster the bill if it contained the immunity clause.

There has been a reluctance among blacks to openly criticize Senator Obama, the first black candidate with a real shot at the presidency. But behind the scenes, there is discontent among African-Americans, as well, over Mr. Obama’s move away from progressive issues, including his support of the Supreme Court’s decision affirming the constitutional right of individuals to bear arms.

There’s even concern that he’s doing the Obama two-step on the issue that has been the cornerstone of his campaign: his opposition to the war in Iraq. But the senator denied that any significant change should be inferred from his comment that he would “continue to refine” his policy on the war.

Mr. Obama is betting that in the long run none of this will matter, that the most important thing is winning the White House, that his staunchest supporters (horrified at the very idea of a President McCain) will be there when he needs them.

He seems to believe that his shifts and twists and clever panders — as opposed to bold, principled leadership on important matters — will entice large numbers of independent and conservative voters to climb off the fence and run into his yard.

Maybe. But that’s a very dangerous game for a man who first turned voters on by presenting himself as someone who was different, who wouldn’t engage in the terminal emptiness of politics as usual.

Time flies and the Iowa caucuses seem a very long time ago.

Frank Rich: Wall-E for President

Ian O — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:40:54 EDT

So much for a July Fourth week spent in idyllic celebration of our country’s birthday. This year’s festivities were marked instead by a debate — childish, not constitutional — over who is and isn’t patriotic. The fireworks were sparked by a verbally maladroit retired general, fueled by two increasingly fatuous presidential campaigns, and heated to a boil by a 24/7 news culture that inflates any passing tit for tat into a war of the worlds.

Let oil soar above $140 a barrel. Let layoffs and foreclosures proliferate like California’s fires. Let someone else worry about the stock market’s steepest June drop since the Great Depression. In our political culture, only one question mattered: What was Wesley Clark saying about John McCain and how loudly would every politician and bloviator in the land react?

Unable to take another minute of this din, I did what any sensible person might do and fled to the movies. More specifically, to an animated movie in the middle of a weekday afternoon. What escape could be more complete?

Among its other attributes, this particular G-rated film, “Wall-E,” is a rare economic bright spot. Its enormous box-office gross last weekend swelled a total Hollywood take that was up 20 percent from a year ago. (You know America’s economy is cooked when everyone flocks to the movies.) The “Wall-E” crowds were primed by the track record of its creator, Pixar Animation Studios, and the ecstatic reviews. But if anything, this movie may exceed its audience’s expectations. It did mine.

As it happened, “Wall-E” opened the same summer weekend as the hot-button movie of the 2004 campaign year, Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit 9/11.” Ah, the good old days. Oil was $38 a barrel, our fatalities in Iraq had not hit 900, and only 57 percent of Americans thought their country was on the wrong track. (Now more than 80 percent do.) “Wall-E,” a fictional film playing to a far larger audience, may touch a more universal chord in this far gloomier time.

Indeed, sitting among rapt children mostly under 12, I felt as if I’d stepped through a looking glass. This movie seemed more realistically in touch with what troubles America this year than either the substance or the players of the political food fight beyond the multiplex’s walls.

While the real-life grown-ups on TV were again rebooting Vietnam, the kids at “Wall-E” were in deep contemplation of a world in peril — and of the future that is theirs to make what they will of it. Compare any 10 minutes of the movie with 10 minutes of any cable-news channel, and you’ll soon be asking: Exactly who are the adults in our country and who are the cartoon characters?

Almost any description of this beautiful film makes it sound juvenile or didactic, and it is neither. So I’ll keep to the minimum. “Wall-E” is a robot-meets-robot love story, as simple (and often as silent) as a Keaton or Chaplin fable, set largely in a smoldering and abandoned Earth, circa 2700, where the only remaining signs of life are a cockroach and a single green sprout.

The robot of the title is a battered mobile trash compactor whose sole knowledge of human civilization and intimacy comes from the avalanche of detritus the former inhabitants left behind — a Rubik’s Cube, an engagement ring and, most strangely, a single stuttering VCR tape of “Hello, Dolly!,” a candied Hollywood musical from 1969. Wall-E keeps rewinding to the song that finds the young lovers pledging their devotion until “time runs out.”

Pixar is not Stanley Kubrick. Though “Wall-E” is laced with visual and musical allusions to “2001: A Space Odyssey,” its vision of apocalypse now is not as dark as Kubrick’s then. The new film speaks to the anxieties of 2008 as specifically as “2001” did to the more explosive tumult of its (election) year, 1968. That’s more than upsetting enough.

Humanity is not dead in “Wall-E,” but it is in peril. The world’s population cruises the heavens ceaselessly on a mammoth luxury spaceship that it boarded in the early 22nd century after the planet became uninhabitable. For government, there is a global corporation called Buy N Large, which keeps the public wired to umpteenth-generation iPods and addicted to a diet of supersized liquefied fast food and instantly obsolete products. The people are too bloated to walk — they float around on motorized Barcaloungers — but they are happy shoppers. A billboard on the moon heralds a Buy N Large outlet mall “coming soon,” not far from that spot where back in the day of “Hello, Dolly!” idealistic Americans once placed a flag.

And yet these rabid consumers, like us, are haunted by what paradise might have been lost. How can they reclaim what matters? How can Earth be recolonized? These questions are rarely spoken in “Wall-E,” but are omnipresent, like half-forgotten dreams. In this movie, a fleeting green memory of the extinct miracle of photosynthesis is as dazzling and elusive as the emerald city of Oz.

One of the great things about art, including popular art, is that it can hit audiences at a profound level beyond words. That includes children. The kids at “Wall-E” were never restless, despite the movie’s often melancholy mood and few belly laughs. They seemed to instinctually understand what “Wall-E” was saying; they didn’t pepper their chaperones with questions along the way. At the end they clapped their small hands. What they applauded was not some banal cartoonish triumph of good over evil but a gentle, if unmistakable, summons to remake the world before time runs out.

You have to wonder what these same kids make of the political show their parents watch on TV at home. The fierce urgency of now that drives “Wall-E” and its yearning for change is absent in both the Barack Obama and McCain campaigns these days.

For me, Mr. Obama showed signs of jumping the shark two weeks back, when he appeared at a podium affixed with his own pompous faux-presidential seal. It could have been a Pixar sight gag. In fact, it is a gag in “Wall-E,” where, in a flashback, we see that the original do-nothing chief executive of Buy N Large (prone to pronouncements like “stay the course”) boasted his own ersatz presidential podium.

For all the hyperventilation on the left about Mr. Obama’s rush to the center — some warranted, some not — what’s more alarming is how small-bore and defensive his campaign has become. Whether he’s reaffirming his long-held belief in faith-based programs or fudging his core convictions about government snooping, he is drifting away from the leadership he promised and into the focus-group-tested calculation patented by Mark Penn in his disastrous campaign for Hillary Clinton. Mr. Obama’s Wednesday address calling for renewed public service is unassailable in principle but inadequate to the daunting size of the serious American crisis at hand. The speech could have been — and has been — delivered by any candidate of either party in any election year since 1960.

What Mr. Obama has going for him during this tailspin is that his opponent seems mortifyingly out-to-lunch. Mr. McCain is a man who aspires to lead the largest economy in the world and yet recently admitted that he doesn’t know how to use a computer, the one modern tool shared by everyone from the post-industrial American work force to Middle Eastern terrorists to Pixar animators. Getting shot down over Vietnam may not be a qualification for president in 2008, but surely a rudimentary facility with a laptop is. What Mr. McCain has going for him is a press corps that often ignores or covers up such embarrassments.

The Republican’s digital ignorance is not a function of his age but of his intellectual inflexibility and his isolation from his country’s reality. To prove the point last week, he took a superfluous, if picturesque, tour of Colombia and Mexico, with occasional timeouts for him and his surrogates to respond like crybabies to General Clark’s supposed slur on his patriotism.

For connoisseurs of McCainian cluelessness, the high point was his Wednesday morning appearance on ABC’s “Good Morning America.” The anchor, Robin Roberts, asked the only important question: Why in heaven’s name was Mr. McCain in Latin America when “the U.S. economy is really at the forefront of voters’ minds”?

“I know Americans are hurting very badly right now,” he explained, channeling the first George Bush’s “Message: I care.” As he spoke, those hurting Americans could feast on the gorgeous flora and fauna of the Cartagena, Colombia, tourist vista serving as his backdrop. “It’s really lovely here,” Mr. McCain said. Since he can’t drop us an e-mail, a video postcard will have to do.

Mr. McCain should be required to see “Wall-E” to learn just how far adrift he is from an America whose economic fears cannot be remedied by his flip-flop embrace of the Bush tax cuts (for the wealthy) and his sham gas-tax holiday (for everyone else). Mr. Obama should see it to be reminded of just how bold his vision of change had been before he settled into a front-runner’s complacency. Americans should see it to appreciate just how much things are out of joint on an Independence Day when a cartoon robot evokes America’s patriotic ideals with more conviction than either of the men who would be president.

Healthy Leads in Rhode Island and Washington; Georgia - A Major Battleground State

Ian O — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:38:53 EDT

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/142532.asp

Washington - A new presidential survey gives Barack Obama an 8-point lead among Washington voters: Obama comes in at 47 percent to 39 percent for John McCain. The Obama advantage is less than the recent 14-point lead registered in a major independent survey. It indicates that Washington is barely - just barely - a "battleground" state. Voters broke nearly even on McCain - 44 percent viewing him positively, 46 percent with negative feelings. The Democratic nominee-in-waiting was viewed positively by 54 percent of those surveyed, negatively by 37 percent.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=460

Georgia - An InsiderAdvantage/PollPosition survey shows John McCain and Barack Obama locked in a tight race in Georgia, the ninth largest electoral prize in the nation. The two candidates are locked in a statistical dead-heat with Bob Barr receiving 4% of the vote and 6% of voters still undecided. Georgia, which has one of the highest African-American voting age populations in the nation along with an unusually young voter age population, is a major battleground state in the 2008 campaign. The Obama campaign is saturating television in the state with 15 electoral votes up for grabs.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/rhode_island/election_2008_rhode_island_presidential_election

Rhode Island - Barack Obama leads John McCain 55% to 31% in Rhode Island, according to the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state since the primaries. Rhode Island has cast its four Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in eight out of the last ten presidential elections. In 2004, John Kerry enjoyed a decisive 59% to 39% victory in the Ocean State.

Obama leads McCain by twenty or more points among both men and women in the state. The race is closer among voters not affiliated with either major political party; in this category, Obama leads 46% to 36%. The Democratic candidate is viewed favorably by 68% and unfavorably by 30% of Rhode Island voters. McCain’s numbers are 52% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

Obama Leads in Montana

Ian O — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 14:47:56 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election2

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana.

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

Obama Close in Florida; Large Leads in Northeast

Ian O — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:46:38 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida701.pdf

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/SV_FL_July08.html

Florida – Over the past 24 hours, two dueling polls of likely voters in Florida have come up with varying results meaning that, as expected, Florida has definitely become a major battleground state similar to 2000. According to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP), Obama has a 46-44 lead over McCain in the Sunshine state. This is a marked improvement from PPP’s last Florida poll, taken in March, which showed Obmaa trailing 50-39. Party unification is the key to his improved standing in the state. At that time he was getting the support of only 60% of self identified Democrats. In this survey he’s polling at 74% with them, and also leading 45-33 among independent voters.

Meanwhile, Strategic Vision just announced the results of a three-day poll of likely Florida voters on various political issues. In the poll, 41% (492 respondents) identified themselves as Democrats; 39% (468 respondents) identified themselves as Republicans; and 20% (240 respondents) identified themselves as independents or other party affiliation.

The results of the poll showed that 34% of those polled approved of President Bush’s overall job performance; with 57% disapproving; and 9% undecided. In a general election match-up for President, John McCain led Barack Obama 49% to 41% with Libertarian Bob Barr at 1% and 9% undecided.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1190

Connecticut – Barack Obama crushes John McCain 56 - 35 percent among Connecticut likely voters, topping the Republican among every sub-group except Republican voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Obama leads McCain 86 - 9 percent among Democrats and 52 - 36 percent among independent voters, while trailing 79 - 16 percent among Republicans, the poll finds. The Democrat is ahead;

53 - 40 percent among men;
59 - 31 percent among women;
53 - 40 percent among white voters;
90 - 2 percent among black voters;
68 - 26 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old;
54 - 38 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old;
53 - 38 percent among voters over 55.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/massachusetts/election_2008_massachusetts_presidential_election

Massachusetts – Obama’s lead over McCain has grown even bigger in the historically blue state of Massachusetts. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Bay State found the Democrat ahead 53% to 33%.

Last month, Obama led McCain 51% to 38%. The Democrat’s strong advantage in the state is no surprise to anyone; Ronald Reagan remains the only Republican presidential nominee win Massachusetts since 1956. In 1972, Massachusetts was the only state to cast its votes for George McGovern.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/SV_GA_July08.html

Georgia – A three day poll in Georgia by Strategic Vision found that President Bush’s overall approval was 38% approving, 49% disapproving, and 13% undecided. In a general election match-up for President, John McCain led Barack Obama 51% to 43% with Libertarian Bob Barr at 3% and 3% undecided. Interestingly, when asked if they thought Georgia was headed in the right direction or wrong direction, 47% said right direction; 38% said wrong direction; and 15% were undecided. This is a high number for such a conservative state.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ee159c77-e4e4-4b5e-b5aa-5ae114813bc8

New York – As expected, Obama holds a 20-pointe lead in this longtime Democratic state with only 6% of voters undecided. According to the poll, sponsored by ABC affiliates in New York City, Rochester, and Albany, the only way McCain can pull within single digits is by naming Mayor Bloomberg as his running mate.

Obama Has Large Lead in Massachusetts; Very Close in North Carolina

Ian O — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 11:09:31 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC701.pdf

North Carolina – According to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling, John McCain continues to hold onto a small lead in North Carolina. McCain is at 45% in the poll, with Barack Obama at 41%, and Bob Barr pulling 5%. McCain held a 43-40 lead in PPP’s most recent previous survey of the race. One of the most interesting findings in the poll is that while McCain leads 49-36 among life time residents of North Carolina, Obama has a 46-40 lead with those voters who have moved to the state from somewhere else.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Florida – The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by seven percentage points, 48% to 41%. One week earlier, it was McCain by eight. A month ago, the Republican had a ten-point lead. This is the sixth straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey to show McCain leading Obama in the Sunshine State.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=730e5d9a-7be3-486e-9594-37b5351ad3d8

Massachusetts – The most recent poll conducted in the Bay State shows Obama with a double-digit lead (13%) over McCain. Only about 7 percent of voters are undecided, but more than ten percent of independents have yet to make a decision.

Obama Leads in Virginia; Keeps Close in Lone Star State

Ian O — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 11:49:29 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b3aa039f-ad80-42e9-b384-e37f124f51d5

Virginia – With only about 4% of voters undecided, Obama leads McCain by 2 points in this once heavily Republican state. Among moderates, Obama enjoys a lead of over 20%.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/texas/election_2008_texas_presidential_election

Texas – A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Texas shows the presidential race has grown slightly closer over the past month. John McCain now leads Barack Obama 48% to 39% in the Lone Star state. Last month, McCain enjoyed a thirteen-point lead over the Democrat. Nationally, since clinching the Democratic nomination, Obama has held onto a modest lead in the Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll. McCain has large lead among men in Texas, but the two candidates are essentially tied among women.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/georgia/election_2008_georgia_presidential_election

Georgia – John McCain continues to hold a substantial lead over Barack Obama in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows the Republican nominee attracting 53% of the vote while his Democratic rival earns support from 43%. One percent (1%) of voters would opt for former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr who is running as the Libertarian candidate for President. Three percent (3%) of voters are undecided. A month ago, McCain enjoyed a similar ten-point lead, 51% to 41%.

Double-Digit Lead in NJ; Leads in Battleground State of Ohio

Ian O — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 16:50:41 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b379f604-b136-4483-b19f-7f38a1a85f81

Ohio – A statewide poll conducted last week in Ohio shows Obama with a two-point lead as 7% of voters in the Buckeye State are still undecided. The male/female split between Obama and McCain are almost identical as is the division between those 18-49 years old and voters over the age of 50. Obama leads by six percentage points among independents, but about 16% said they have yet to make up their mind.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/helpobama/

New Jersey – The latest results from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll show John McCain trailing Barack Obama by double digits, 49%-33%. The poll also reveals the extent to which McCain’s association with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq hurts his campaign.

Hurting McCain is the fact that only 18% of voters say that they approve of the job President Bush is doing while 75% disapprove. Worse, only 15% say that the country is moving in the right direction and nearly three in four say the country is headed in the wrong direction.

For the first time the poll finds there is not a majority of Republican voters who approve of the President’s job performance: Republicans split evenly on the question of Bush handling his job with 45% approving and 46% disapproving. Another shift is in Republican views of the Iraq war: Republican voters by margins of two-to-one have said in many previous polls that going to war in Iraq was the “right thing to do” but now only half agree (51%) while 41% say it was a mistake.

Obama’s lead increases substantially, from 13 to 18 points, when voters are asked questions about President Bush and Iraq before they are asked who they might vote for in the election. Half of respondents were asked questions about President Bush and the war in Iraq before being asked who they would vote for in the November election, while the other half were asked about the president and Iraq afterwards.

Race Remains Close in Magnolia State

Ian O — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 11:10:31 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election

Mississippi – The numbers in the race between John McCain and Barack Obama in Mississippi remain unchanged over the past month. The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race finds McCain leading Obama 50% to 44%, just as he did in May.

While McCain has a double-digit lead among men, Obama leads 49% to 44% among women. Obama also dominates among the youngest set of voters (age 18-29), 75% to 22%.

McCain attracts 84% of Republican voters in Mississippi and 54% of voters who are not affiliated with either party. Obama’s support in the Magnolia State comes from 78% of Democrats and 33% of unaffiliated voters. In addition, McCain is viewed favorably by 58% of voters and unfavorably by 37% of voters. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

Obama Remains Close in Texas With Large Number of Undecided Voters

Ian O — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 17:59:34 EDT

http://www.texaslyceum.org/media/staticContent/PubCon_Journals/2008/National%20Summary%20_day%202_%20final.pdf

Texas – The newest poll out of the Lone Star state has John McCain leading Barack Obama by five points, but a significant number of Texans said they haven’t picked a favorite yet. One of every six voters (17%) said they haven’t decided who will get their vote in November.

Overall, Texans overwhelmingly believe the country is on the wrong track, with 70% in that column and only 23% saying "things are moving in the right direction." That's a change from a year ago, when 62% thought the country was on the wrong track.

The economy is the most important issue facing the country, with 33% putting that at the top of the list. Next came gas and oil, 20%, and then the war in Iraq, 14%. Asked about the economic environment, 78% said the country is worse off than it was a year ago, while 17% said things are about the same. This is also a change from last year when 35% of respondents said the country was worse off and 43% said things were about the same.

Quinnipiac Polls: Obama Leads in Four Presidential Swing States

Ian O — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 10:42:53 EDT

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1188

An emerging Democratic coalition of women, minorities and younger voters is propelling Barack Obama to leads of five to 17 percentage points over John McCain among likely voters in the battleground states of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, according to four simultaneous Quinnipiac University polls, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com.

McCain's lead among white voters in Colorado and Michigan cuts the gap to single digits, but doesn't offset Sen. Obama's strength among other groups. The Democrat also leads by eight to 21 percentage points among independent voters in each state. Overall results show:

Colorado: Obama leads McCain 49 - 44 percent, including 51 - 39 percent among independent voters;
Michigan: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent, with 46 - 38 percent among independents;
Minnesota: Obama buries McCain 54 - 37 percent, and 54 - 33 percent with independents;
Wisconsin: Obama leads McCain 52 - 39 percent, and 50 - 37 percent with independents.

President Bush's approval ratings are:

31 - 63 percent in Colorado;
26 - 67 percent in Michigan;
24 - 70 percent in Minnesota;
27 - 67 percent in Wisconsin.

Colorado

The economy is the most important issue with Colorado voters, 47 percent say, while 19 percent list the war in Iraq, 10 percent cite health care and 9 percent cite illegal immigration.

Michigan

Voters in this state give Obama a 54 - 27 percent favorability, with 49 - 29 percent for McCain. For 56 percent of Michigan voters, the economy is the most important issue in November, while 16 percent list the war in Iraq and 10 percent cite health care.

Minnesota

Obama gets a 59 - 22 percent favorability, to 46 - 32 percent for McCain. The economy is the most important issue for 51 percent of Minnesota voters, while 21 percent list the war in Iraq and 11 percent list health care.

Wisconsin

Obama's favorability is 54 - 27 percent, with 48 - 30 percent for McCain. The economy is the most important issue in their vote, 47 percent of Wisconsin voters say, while 20 percent cite the war in Iraq and 14 percent list health care.

Obama Leads in New Mexico; Still Trails in Battleground State of Missouri

Ian O — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 10:33:41 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=31e69724-cf94-4dbc-b14b-961f53d67e39

New Mexico – Barack Obama holds a small lead (49-46) over John McCain in New Mexico with 5% percent of voters still undecided. Both moderates and independents continue to support Obama by healthy margins. Interestingly, according to this poll moderates (who said they would vote for Obama by a margin of 2-1) make up about 40% of likely voters in New Mexico. While Kerry lost the state in 2004, Gore won it by a mere .06% four years earlier.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5d6f10cf-ec7e-4ef1-8abd-f798bb64c79b

Missouri – With 7% of voters still undecided in Missouri, John McCain holds a seven-point lead over Barack Obama with a 16% edge among independents.

Offshore Drilling Hurts McCain in the Golden State

Ian O — Wed, 25 Jun 2008 12:05:15 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/california/election_2008_california_presidential_election

John McCain’s call for offshore oil drilling has hurt him in California. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the Golden State finds Barack Obama leading McCain 58% to 30%. A month ago, Obama led 52% to 38%.

The survey was conducted on Monday night, the day of McCain’s visit to Santa Barbara, where a 1969 oil spill helped launch the environmental movement. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Republican and a McCain supporter. However, he strongly disagrees with McCain’s position on offshore drilling and has called the California coast an “international treasure” that needs to be protected.

The data indicates that McCain’s energy proposal may have united his opposition. Obama leads 84% to 6% among California Democrats. That’s a vast improvement from a month ago when he attracted 73% of the votes from his own party. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama now leads by twenty-three points up from a thirteen point lead in May.

Obama Leads in Michigan; Indiana A Dead Heat

Ian O — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 15:51:30 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Michigan_624.pdf

Michigan – Barack Obama is beginning the general election in Michigan with a 48-39 lead, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP). About 13% of respondents said they were currently undecided (more women than men). Obama holds a small four-point lead among those who listed their political affiliation as “other” (not Democrat or Republican) of which 24% are undecided.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d62471d9-b9f8-4274-8312-16c1006a5764

Indiana – Obama and McCain are in a statistical dead heat in the Hoosier State where a Democrat has not won since President Johnson was re-elected in 1964. With 19 weeks until Election Day, Obama holds a slight advantage over McCain at 48-47 in a new poll, which was conducted by WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati.

While Obama holds a seven point lead among women, McCain leads by five among men. Respondents who are independents favor Obama by 7 points and among the 25% of people who say they could still change their mind before the first Tuesday in November, Obama leads by 2.

Obama Continues to Lead in New Mexico and Pennsylvania

Ian O — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 09:37:31 EDT

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

Pennsylvania - Barack Obama has now taken a four-point lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of state voters. Five percent of voters favor an unspecified third-party candidate, and 8% remain undecided. In last month’s survey, Obama had a narrow 45% to 43% lead over his Republican rival, but this was before Hillary Rodham Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Two months ago, McCain held a statistically insignificant lead.

Interestingly, McCain’s statements that a long-term U.S. military presence may be necessary in Iraq prompts 53% of voters to say they are less likely to support him, with 27% more likely and 16% saying the comments have no impact on the vote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_presidential_election

New Mexico – The presidential race in New Mexico has changed little over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 47% to 39%. Last month, the Democrat led 50% to 41%. Obama’s lead was much smaller in March, and in February, the two candidates were tied. As in most states, Obama polls better among women in New Mexico than men. He has an eleven-point lead among women, and just a seven-point lead among men. Those numbers have shown little change since last month.

Back in 2004, President Bush won the state by little more than 6,000 votes.

Pacific Northwest – Wide Lead in Washington

Ian O — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 11:58:48 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c4ab7114-09d9-428a-8ea9-74a13485d8e7

Washington – Obama holds a health double-digit lead over McCain in the state of Washington with only 5% of voters saying they are undecided. The Arizona senator trails Obama 2-1 among female voters and those with a moderate ideology. Independents also favor Obama by approximately seven points. In the 2004 election, the 11 electoral votes went to Democratic candidate John Kerry.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6d876854-13d5-4f70-b17d-9ea29d0bb4d8

Oregon – According to the most recent poll of voters in Oregon, sponsored by KATU-TV in Portland, Obama holds a slight advantage with 7% of voters still undecided. While Obama still has a small lead among independent voters, 15% of this voting group said they are still undecided. In 2004, John Kerry defeated President Bush by a little more than four points.

Double-Digit Lead in California

Ian O — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 16:38:56 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=77e4eb1d-231c-4829-ba27-0160c7de2b99

Obama holds a 12-point lead over John McCain in a poll of likely voters throughout the state of California. The Golden State holds the most electoral votes of any state in the nation. Obama has healthy leads among women, moderates, independents, and Hispanics. If polls of California voters continue to show such a distance between the two candidates, it will be interesting to see how much money McCain pumps into the state campaign.

Obama Leads in Iowa and NH; Challenges McCain throughout the Southwest

Ian O — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 16:33:33 EDT

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election

New Hampshire - Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain in the first poll conducted in New Hampshire since Hillary Clinton’s exit from the race. The latest survey in the Granite State found Obama ahead 50% to 39%. Last month, he had just a five-point lead over McCain.

Obama’s insignificant two-point lead among women voters last month has bounced to a sixteen-point lead this month. His lead among male voters is nearly the same; he now leads McCain by seven percentage points among men, little changed from eight points last month.

Independence is an important part of New Hampshire politics so Obama’s 15-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party is quite a telling sign. This lead is nearly identical to those from recent surveys.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election

Nevada - The latest survey in Nevada shows John McCain attracting 45% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 42%. A month ago, McCain had a six point lead and two months ago the GOP hopeful was up by five.

The race in neighboring Colorado has also tightened over the last month as the Southwest becomes a key battleground for Election 2008. Obama leads in the region’s third swing state – New Mexico.

In Nevada, McCain leads by fourteen points among men but trails by eight among women. The Republican also has a twenty point lead among the state’s unaffiliated voters, but a quarter of these voters remain uncommitted to either McCain or Obama.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=851c4ef8-c6f2-499a-8d2f-bafdb824728b

Iowa – In the most recent poll released concerning the Hawkeye State, Obama holds a four-point lead over John McCain with 6% undecided. Obama holds a healthy advantage among women and leads among those who label themselves independents as well as respondents who described their ideology as “moderate.” These two categories can prove decisive in state such as Iowa.

Mayor Bloomberg Criticizes ‘Whisper Campaign’ Around Obama

Ian O — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 16:22:25 EDT

From NY Times:

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Injecting himself directly into the presidential campaign and speaking before one of its most crucial constituencies, Jewish voters, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg on Friday morning forcefully rejected what he called a “whisper campaign” in the Jewish community linking Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, to Islam.

Mr. Bloomberg, who has been occasionally mentioned as a potential running mate for both Mr. Obama and Senator John McCain, the presumtive Republican nominee, told an audience of Jewish residents here that rumors that Mr. Obama is a Muslim represent “wedge politics at its worst, and we have to reject it loudly, clearly and unequivocally.”

He added, “Let’s call those rumors what they are: lies.”

Mr. Bloomberg, who is Jewish, said the worries about the faith of Mr. Obama, who is Christian, “are cloaked in concern for Israel, but the real concern is about partisan politics.”

“Israel is just being used as a pawn, which is not that surprising, since some people are willing to stop to any level to win an election.”

Mr. Bloomberg spoke at a breakfast meeting before the Jewish Federation of South Palm Beach County, which was founded in 1979 and has its headquarters in Boca Raton.

Mr. Bloomberg, a longtime Democrat who became a Republican to run for mayor in 2001, declared himself an independent one year ago Thursday, fueling speculation that he might mount a third-party candidacy for the White House.

After months in which he seemed to prepare a run while also being urged to make up his mind, he finally announced in February that he would not run.

However, the mayor — whose second term will end on Dec. 31, 2009, and who is barred by term limits laws from seeking re-election at City Hall — has tried to maintain a political profile. He declared in February, “If a candidate takes an independent, nonpartisan approach — and embraces practical solutions that challenge party orthodoxy — I’ll join others in helping that candidate win the White House.”

And this month, two people briefed on the mayor’s thinking said that he might try to explore overturning the term-limits law or running for governor in 2010.

Mr. Bloomberg said he had not yet made up his mind which candidate to back in the presidential race. But his remarks are likely to ingratiate him to Mr. Obama, who has at times struggled to win over Jewish voters.

Georgia – Very much in play

Ian O — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:31:26 EDT

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/PollPosition%20Poll%201.pdf

Obama is in a statistical dead heat with Senator John McCain in the Republican stronghold of Georgia, according to a new poll released this morning. McCain leads Obama by slightly more than 1% with 5% supporting former Georgia Representative Bob Barr and 7% saying they are undecided. The Democrats have not won Georgia’s 13 delegates since Bill Clinton was elected in 1992. Interestingly, more than 60% of Hispanics who responded to the poll said they were undecided as did 19% of independents.

In a related item from this week’s edition of Time Magazine, the Obama campaign views several Southern states as “in play.” For the article in its entirety, please follow this link.

Otherwise, here’s a short clip:

Now that he is the presumptive nominee, Obama is working hard to make good on his prediction. In briefings last week with former Hillary Clinton supporters, Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, said he is focusing on Georgia and Virginia as potential swing states and, depending on the outcomes of voter registration drives, he's also keeping an eye on Mississippi and Louisiana. In Georgia, the Obama campaign has wasted no time, launching massive voter registration drives before he the primaries had even ended. "By some estimates we have about 600,000 African Americans in Georgia are eligible but unregistered. I think that number is a little high, but we will be working very hard to register as many voters as we can before the election," said Jane Kidd, chairwoman of the Georgia Democratic Party. "Georgia is one of the most progressive southern states. There are a lot of people moving in, there's a lot of transition, a lot of progressives."
Obama has 15 full-time paid staffers who have been in Georgia for over a month. They also have had staff in North Carolina and Virginia and have been "literally moving in dozens of people every week to all three states," said Jon Carson, Obama's national field director. They also expect to have staff in Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana before the end of the month. "It's very hard to sit here right now to say what's going to happen in November... Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri — which of those is going to be most winnable? So our campaign is taking the approach of casting a wide net."

Rasmussen Reports: Florida and Ohio Close; Obama Strong in Alaska

Ian O — Thu, 19 Jun 2008 16:47:38 EDT

Several new polls were released over the last 24 hours with data from a variety of states. Let’s go one-by-one:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election

Maine - Barack Obama has substantially widened his lead over John McCain in this New England state since capturing the Democratic nomination from Hillary Clinton. According to the latest survey of Maine voters, Obama now leads his Republican opponent 55% to 33%. In May, Obama enjoyed a 51% to 38% lead, but a month earlier was only ahead by eight points. Similarly, Obama’s favorability ratings have jumped considerably over the past month. The percentage of voters who view him favorably has risen six points to 63%. He is viewed unfavorably by 34%. McCain’s numbers have remained steady. He is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 45%. Maine has cast its four Electoral College votes for the Democratic candidate in the last four presidential elections.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election

Alaska - Erly polling shows Barack Obama as competitive in Alaska. The latest survey of Alaska voters finds John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Obama attracts 41%. Seven percent (7%) say they’d vote for some other candidate while another 6% are not sure. This is the third straight poll showing Obama within single digits of the presumptive GOP nominee. A month ago, McCain was up by nine.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

Ohio - John McCain and Barack Obama remain in a statistical dead heat in Ohio, according to the latest survey in the Buckeye State. McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama, 44% to 43%, among likely voters. Seven percent (7%) favor a third-party candidate and 7% are undecided. Both candidates have experienced similar bumps in their favorability ratings. McCain is now viewed favorably by 58%, up from 53% in May. Obama gets favorable marks from 53% of the state’s voters, up from 47%.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Florida – A poll released earlier today indicates results that differ greatly with yesterday morning’s data. The most recent Florida survey found that McCain currently leads Obama in the state by a 47% to 39% margin. Six percent (6%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 8% are undecided. This poll, conducted by Rasmussen, contradicts a poll released yesterday by Quinnipiac University. Only time will tell …

Thursday's NY Times: Deals With Iraq Are Set to Bring Oil Giants Back

Ian O — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 22:43:16 EDT

BAGHDAD — Four Western oil companies are in the final stages of negotiations this month on contracts that will return them to Iraq, 36 years after losing their oil concession to nationalization as Saddam Hussein rose to power.

For the rest of the article, follow this link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/world/middleeast/19iraq.html

New Polls Released in Several States

Ian O — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 19:35:30 EDT

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Virginia_618.pdf

Virginia - Barack Obama begins the general election in Virginia with a slight lead, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. Obama has 47% to McCain’s 45% with 8% as undecided. On a related note, the poll found Warner leading Jim Gilmore 59-28 in his Senate race.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=42f97d63-cc9e-473b-86bc-11f7fc09d3ae

Wisconsin - Obama holds a nine point advantage with only 6% undecided. Among males, he trails by 6% but among women he leads by 23%.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187 (three polls in one link)

Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio:With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Sen. Barack Obama leads John McCain among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous polls released today.

This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac University polls show:

Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;
Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.

Minnesota - A Battleground State

Ian O — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 19:32:52 EDT

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b9f93545-a19e-4e8d-909c-59b6050c0d5e

A state that the Dems won in 2000 and 2004 by a very small margin (approximately 3% in both elections) looks like it'll be close once again with Obama holding a one-point lead in the state (7% undecided). And unlike the Washington media elite, who talk about Obama's inability to connect with female voters following his defeat of Clinton, the Illinois Senator holds a 57-35 advantage among females (as opposed to McCain's 57-37 advantage among men).

This makes the list of four battleground states in November: NV, NC, MN, VA

New ABC News/Washington Post Poll

Ian O — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 19:30:04 EDT

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_061608.html

There's ALOT in this poll - I encourage you to follow the link. This new ABC News/Washington Post poll gives Barack a +30% on favorable/unfavorable (as opposed to McCain's +17%). As we know, this is a definite telltale sign of who can win this November's election. Pollsters frequently look to the favorable/unfavorable rating in the run-up to any big night.

Let's dig deeper - in another interesting trend that sometimes can prove faulty because participants do lie, 23% of respondents said race was an important factor in their choice for President while 40% said age was important. Under qualities wished for in a President, Obama has pulled even with McCain under "strong leader" after trailing by as much as 11 points in March.

Enthusiastic support for Obama is positive (55-44), while McCain is running negative in this category (57-42). Note that only Bush ran as high as 50-50 in this category (April 2000). In the run-up to the 1996 election Clinton ran 46-54. Voters, by a margin of 57-38, also think that if elected McCain will move the country in the same direction. As opposed to the 2000 election, this year's race is very closely followed by Americans (similar to 2004). In May, 83% of respondents said they were following the race VERY closely (as opposed to 49% in June 2000 and 74% in May 2004). I think McCain could find himself in trouble when this attention turns from Hillary/Obama to Obama/McCain.

In terms of nationwide trends, registered voters support Democratic candidates over Republican candidates for the House by a margin of 53-38. Never mind GW Bush's 29% approval rating and 84% think the nation is on the wrong track. 63% of Americans said the war in Iraq was not worth fighting and by a margin of 55-41, Americans believe we should withdraw forces from that country.